XIIth Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists, Ghent (Belgium ... · 2013....
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Relations between coffee world market price and retail price in Belgium Delille N. Gembloux Agricultural University, Economics and Rural Development Unit, Belgium Variability of the world coffee price and the retail price in Belgium Coffee price cycles Outlook Coffee value chain analysis Transmission of the world coffee price variations to the retail price in Belgium Before September 2001: Cyclic behaviour of 5 to 7 years duration brief volatile periods of high prices and long stable periods of low prices After September 2001: Amplitude reduction of prices cycles speculators interest for the commodities market and their impact on value stocks Monthly ICO Composite Indicator Price Annual retail coffee price in Belgium Monthly ICO Composite Indicator Price and Retail coffee price in Belgium Increase/decrease periods of ICO Composite Indicator Price and retail coffee price in Belgium and observed time response Transmission of the world price reduction to the retail price in Belgium less quickly than for an increase Variations of the world price more important than for the retail price in Belgium Low decreases of the world price do not pass on the retail price in Belgium Significant correlation (r = 0,644) between the world price and the retail price in Belgium Correlation stronger when the world price rises (r = 0,758) than during decreasing periods (r = 0,602) ICO Composite Indicator Price annual variability ICO Composite Indicator Price and retail coffee price in Belgium annual variability www.fsagx.ac.be/eg Reduction of the annual variability of the world price these latter years Annual variability of the world price higher than the retail price one in Belgium No significant correlation between these two annual variabilities 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 10,0 11,0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Years €/kg Source : Ecodata 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Years US cents / lb Source : ICO 6,50 7,00 7,50 8,00 8,50 9,00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Years € / kg 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 US cents / lb Retail coffee price in Belgium (€ / kg) ICO Composite Indicator Price (US cents per lb) Source : ICO and Ecodata 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Years CV (%) Source : Author calculation based on ICO data 0,0 3,0 6,0 9,0 12,0 15,0 18,0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Years CV (%) ICO Composite Indicator Price Retail coffee price in Belgium Source : Author calculation based on ICO and Ecodata data XIIth Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists, Ghent (Belgium), August 26–29, 2008
Transcript of XIIth Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists, Ghent (Belgium ... · 2013....
Relations between coffee world market price and retail price in Belgium
Delille N.
Gembloux Agricultural University, Economics and Rural Development Unit, Belgium
Photo DGA 1999
Variability of the world coffee price and the retail price in Belgium
Coffee price cycles
Outlook Coffee value chain analysis
Transmission of the world coffee price variations to the retail price in Belgium
Before September 2001: Cyclic behaviour of 5 to 7 years duration
brief volatile periods of high prices and long stable periods of low prices
After September 2001: Amplitude reduction of prices cycles
speculators interest for the commodities market and their impact on value stocks
Monthly ICO Composite Indicator Price Annual retail coffee price in Belgium
Monthly ICO Composite Indicator Price and
Retail coffee price in Belgium
Increase/decrease periods of ICO Composite Indicator Price and
retail coffee price in Belgium and observed time response
Transmission of the world price reduction to the retail price in Belgium less quickly than for an increase
Variations of the world price more important than for the retail price in Belgium
Low decreases of the world price do not pass on the retail price in Belgium
Significant correlation (r = 0,644) between the world price and the retail price in Belgium
Correlation stronger when the world price rises (r = 0,758) than during decreasing periods (r = 0,602)
ICO Composite Indicator Price annual variability ICO Composite Indicator Price and retail coffee price in Belgium
annual variability
www.fsagx.ac.be/eg
Reduction of the annual variability of the world price these latter years
Annual variability of the world price higher than the retail price one in Belgium
No significant correlation between these two annual variabilities
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Years
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Retail coffee price in Belgium (€ / kg) ICO Composite Indicator Price (US cents per lb)
Source : ICO and Ecodata
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Years
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ICO Composite Indicator Price Retail coffee price in Belgium
Source : Author calculation based on ICO and Ecodata data
XIIth Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists, Ghent (Belgium), August 26–29, 2008
