INDIA ACCELERATING

Evolving the systems, processes and models for effective governance in a purposeful India, trend analysis and forecasting implications with solutions for India from a global economic, political, military and technological perspective, tracking the rise of BRICS and emerging markets and analysing their interplay with India

COAT OF ARMS: Crossed designer swords and the blazing yellow sun

INDIA ACCELERATING is a public interest blog dedicated to applying mental faculties for the good of the country and the betterment of the countrymen and strives towards evolving intellectual systems and governing models for the effective functioning of the state, instilling a compelling vision of a vibrant India in the political class and motivating millions of brilliant Indian minds towards a common purpose so as to transform India into a dynamic economic, military, technological and intellectual power.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

India Must Play The China Card Smartly and Shrewdly

Over the last 6-12 months or so, there have been at least half a dozen face-offs between Chinese military and Indian soldiers along the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh and LOC in Jammu & Kashmir. The moot question is: what provokes Chinese adventurism on Indian soil. To answer this question you must first understand the Chinese psyche. China wants India to play second fiddle to it and come into an alliance with it to challenge American world dominance. China has exhibited the will and the resolve to do this by boosting its economy and military substantially over the last 30 years or so.

But for a variety of reasons India should not and will not play second fiddle to China. India is an open society given to strong democratic traditions while China is largely a closed society in a veiled communist system. India believes in religious freedom and safeguards the family institution while China crushes or regulates religious freedom and practices and also at the same time regulates family structure. India believes in free enterprise and the power of

the individual to bring about tectonic shifts in society whereas China believes in collectivism and state enterprise.

China’s adventurism along the LAC and LOC are marked by various reasons. It is militarily superior to India and has surreptitiously promoted communist movements and Maoist insurgency in many parts of India. China has extensively armed and provided nuclear weapons to Pakistan to pin down India by putting extreme psychological pressure on it. It occupies Aksai Chin in Jammu and Kashmir and plays a strategic role in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir by placing 11,000 odd troops there who are engaged in highway construction, hydroelectric construction and other military activities.

That China wants to subjugate India forcefully is very much evident in the way it conducts itself in South Asia with India’s neighbours. It has built naval bases in Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. It has military to military exchanges with Burma and Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan often arming them with weapons to keep India in a hostile environment and check its influence. The port of Gwadar built in Pakistan by Chinese expertise is a strategic move aimed at transporting oil from the Persian gulf to Mainland China via Gwadar and on to POK and then to Xinjiang/Tibet where it has built a world class railway system.

So to counter China, India must find its Achilles heel and what are its weak points and the soft underbelly. For this India need not look very far. India has provided safe haven to Tibetan dissidents and by any estimate about 2-4 million Tibetans are stationed in India. Tibet could easily be one fourth the size of India as it extends from J&K to Arunachal Pradesh in the East and then deep into Chinese territory. The other weak underbelly of China is Xinjiang Uighyr Autonomous Region or more commonly referred to as Xinjiang where China has relocated about 8 million Han Chinese who are at daggers drawn with the local Muslim Uighyrs.

India should have a proactive policy of promoting democracy in both Tibet Autonomous Region and Xinjiang UIghyr Autonomous Regions and should encourage democratic movements in these two regions. In India the BJP in consultation with The main Opposition, the Congress, should develop a proactive and aggressive China policy which would put the psychological pressure back on the Chinese and this policy should be consistently followed for at least 20-30 years till the time India develops economic or military parity with China. This would mean encouraging the democratic movements and independence movements in Tibet and Xinjiang both strategically, culturally and militarily.

China has bullied India on several occasions and the only way to deal with a bully is to stand up to it solidly and boldly. The US has many times expressed interest to India in asking it to be a part of the concentric triangle strategy to contain China whereby India, Japan and Australia along with Philippines and Taiwan could have closer strategic collaboration with each other. India should jump at this offer and should make it amply clear that India aligns with US/Israel and western democracies. This and this alone will safeguard Indian interests and this alone will make the Chinese behave themselves and keep India in a strong bargaining position.

If India doesn’t do this, China will continue to arm twist and brow beat india annexing many more parts of it and keep it occupied in the little south Asian zone by propping up belligerent and hostile neighbours. Modi has made a good start by cultivating Indian neighbours. We must go two steps ahead in cultivating countries of the central Asian republics close to Xinjiang, select countries of the gulf/middle east, south Asian countries and off course Japan and Australia. China is an unreliable country and India should not be fooled by its overtures.

In this context, the years 2018-25 are dramatic periods in Asian context. It is widely possible due to rising Islamic extremism and China adventurism with regard to Taiwan, Japan and India that this might break out to lead to World War III or in Indian terms ‘mahapralay’. In this event about 400-500 million people will die or be maimed in a bloody nuclear, chemical and biological warfare stretching from the gulf area to Iran, India, South east Asian countries and Japans. India is well advised to speed up the raising of 3-4 additional mountain strike corps divisions along the LAC and LOC. IF China sees that India has a minimum deterrence in place it will be prevented from excessive adventurism along LAC, LOC, and the Indian ocean.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 2:08 AM No comments:

Thursday, August 21, 2014

BJP/Modi Are Forgetting What Brought Them to Power

Even after three months in power, the BJP has not got a grip on the country nor on the issues facing the country and is unknowingly scripting its own downfall and writing its own deathknell. The BJP can find the answers to its problems in its own behaviour and actions in the last 6-12 months. For that we must first understand what brought the BJP to power, why the majority population veered

towards the BJP and why we are now seeing cracks in this grand spectacle.

Analyse Mr Modi’s poll plank: My religion is India first and my religious book is the Constitution he said with much grandeur which made people think that here was an alternative to the Congress. Then Mr Modi said my motto is small government, maximum governance. Even after three months there has been no sign of the restructuring of the government and reallocation of human resources without in any way resorting to downsizing or alienating the government staff.

The third and most crucial point is that the majority Hindus voted the BJP to power and gave it a clear and overwhelming mandate because under the erstwhile Congress, Hindus felt alienated in their own land and felt persecuted due to the Congress high handed policies against the Hindus and appeasement of the minorities and mollycoddling them. But Congress high handedness has been replaced by another form of short sightedness.

RSS chief Mr Mohan Bhagwat’s statement that India is a Hindu nation and India’s identity is Hindutva and those who do not agree with this should leave the country is bound to be misread and misunderstood by the Opposition. Let’s go back in history. During the start of the Muslim invasion in 950 AD or so, the Muslim invaders termed the country east of the river Indus as Industan and the people living east of the river Indus as Indus. This was later corrupted to Hindustan and Hindus due to phonetical and pronounciation problems. So technically yes, the people living east of Indus are all Hindus since all people then had the same religion. But this was in 1,000 AD.

Today the situation is different. In the last 1,000 years, 15 per cent of the population in India is Muslim, and another 10 percent Christians, Sikhs, Jains and Buddhists and Parsis. To term them as Hindus in 21st

century India is a misnomer and against the tenets of the constitution. Mr Modi said that all religions are equal in India and followers of all religions will be given equal opportunity. So why is Mr Bhagwat unnecessarily stoking fire and courting controversy?

Besides this, Amit Shah’s brand of political radicalisation will do India more harm than good. The people of India voted the BJP to power and gave it an overwhelming mandate on mainly 5 counts: Fight and protect Hindu rights so that the Hindu is not persecuted in his own land; good governance; Modi’s said allegiance to the constitution and to a secular Indian identity and a strong India. If Modi and the BJP forget this, then it can be said in certainty that circumstances will force mid-term polls due to loss of credibility and the BJP/RSS will be booted out of power.

Finally, Mr Modi must devote and dedicate the next 5 years of his term to building efficiencies and efficacies across the government systems. If he can do this and maintain a balanced and secular character, a bright second term awaits him in 2019, but if he caves in to Bhagwatisms and Shahisms, there is no doubt that he will be on his way out sooner than later.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 12:07 PM No comments:

BJP's Big Task For Next 5 Years: Make Govt Systems Effective & Efficient

It is ironical that before it came to power, the BJP was vociferous in its criticism of the then establishment on issues concerning the country. But no sooner that it has been brought in the saddle that it has lost all its bearings. It needs to be told what to say and what not to say, what to do and what not to do at every juncture. It seems to have some sense of the big picture when not in power but seems to have lost focus and has no sense of situational awareness when in power.

In this context, the biggest challenges facing the country today are: Inflation, Unemployment, and a Weak Rupee. The solutions to these problems can be found within and not without. We must look inside and not outside. We must correct ourselves first and not seek to correct others first. We must purify ourselves first and not seek to purify others or find impurity in others. This applies to each one of us. If only we acted on ourselves first and stopped correcting others, our country would be a better place to live in. On a larger scale, this applies to the government also. India’s problems are partly because of a inefficient, corrupt and unproductive government system which has been continuing for decades. This said, one cannot and should not at the same time ignore the good also that has been done in all these years. But the problems are a plenty. And these must be addressed on a war footing.

The first and foremost task for the Modi government for the next 5 years is to make the governments at the Centre, State and Municipal levels efficient, effective, transparent, accountable, productive and honest. This means that additional infrastructure is welcome but most importantly the existing infrastructure should be made efficient, transparent, accountable, productive and honest. What are the implications? It is that the municipalities and the state governments must function efficiently: sewage, road and neighbourhood cleanliness, the government departments, water, sanitation, hygiene, hospitals, the tax departments, the police force, the electricity departments, the roads, the railways, airports and airlines, irrigation, schools, colleges, the public transport system and many dozens of government departments must function efficiently and productively.

It means that the councillors and legislators must work and discharge their duties conscientiously, diligently and honestly. It means that administrators and bureaucrats must be measured by their output and merit and not by sycophancy and toeing the official line. It means that councillors, legislators, parliamentarians, administrators, bureaucrats, and government servants must work in the public interest, must work in the national interest, must utilise the funds allocated to them for a project judiciously, honestly and the money should be well spent. This money should not be treated as loot or plunder but should be seen as the hard earned money of the tax payer. It means the sick industries and companies must be revived and made efficient. It means the Opposition should also discharge its duties responsibly and should function as an alert watchdog. It means departments, ministries and institutions must work efficiently, the funds allocated to them must be used judiciously with proper audit, the government servants must be productive and accountable and keep the public and not themselves first in mind.

Once you ensure the government and government servants are efficient, accountable, productive, responsible, transparent and honest, then you will be able to control all the three demonic challenges: Inflation, Weak Rupee and Unemployment.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 11:46 AM No comments:

Friday, April 4, 2014

BJP Manifesto: 10 Guiding Principles

To precede action with sincere motives and honourable intentions.To enter well thought-out and well planned action with boldness and fearlessness.Not to play negative and dangerous games. To play good, positive games.Belief in good, traditional, Indian values.Belief in individual freedom and enterprise.Belief in the presence of GOD and family structure.To be grateful and loyal to our benefactors and to accept things gracefully.Belief in the healing, binding and formidable power of LOVE.Not to use India's military might to expand national boundaries, but to use military strength to uphold and protect our values and ideals.Respect, fair treatment and equal opportunity to all religions, castes and people of all regions.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 12:31 AM No comments:

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Modi Must Learn to Endear Himself to Others

Terms of endearment:India is a complex country and governing it calls for sagacity, wisdom, experience, and control. I have always maintained that the Indian leader who leads this country must have experience over youth, wisdom over dynamism and take everyone in his ambit and stride and deliberately keep a consciously low profile. He must create heroes out of ordinary members of his team and be the decision-making force from behind the scenes. Modi’s and the BJP’s strategy need to be considerably tweaked if they desire to form the government at the Centre post the 2014 elections. Two reasons can be cited for this. In the assembly elections in the capital, the BJP despite having the maximum number of seats in the assembly was still not able to form the government because AAP with a lesser number of seats was able to form the government with the support of the Congress. You can no longer say that you don’t seek power but want to work in an altruistic way because it is power which ensures that you will be able to provide good governance and a strong government. Therefore you must use all means possible, legitimately, to gain power. AAP is a parody because the very government it opposed, the Congress, and the very reason for its existence, it has defied it and is running haywire on the back of Congress support. Even now, the BJP in Delhi must muster the

support of disgruntled elements in other parties and must try its best to form the government in the Capital (Delhi). Single-party rule era is over in India for quite some time and the BJP must be a past master and learn the tricky game of pulling together a coalition and working in its ambit. The BJP must eagerly reach out to other parties who are disheartened by the ruling dispensation and must stitch together a pre poll alliance to get the necessary seats and if not then after elections it must focus on a post poll alliance. You must seek power if you want to get it and no other party signifies this better than the Congress. They wanted to rule this country and they made sure for 60 years that they got power. The BJP too must exhibit this killer instinct. The bottomline is: you will get power only if you want it for the good of the country. It will be a pity and indeed the people will not forgive the BJP if it does a repeat of the Delhi performance in the Centre. If despite winning over 225 seats in 2014 elections it is still unable to stitch an alliance to form the government in the Centre and if the Congress with 70-80 seats and AAP with 30-40 seats and other parties come together it is very likely that a Congress led government with the support of the third front or with tacit Congress backing could once again form the government at the Centre and this could leave the BJP out in the cold, yet again. This is the hot gossip and stories doing the rounds in the drawing rooms of the country’s homes. So Mr Modi should learn the art of coalition politics and keep his alliance partners in good humour if he seeks to lead the government post-2014 elections. Second, the BJP has to learn how to work in unison and work in tandem. It can take a lesson from the Congress. They are experts in doing this. The entire BJP leadership, the second, third and fourth rung leaders must back Modi strongly and must counter all negative jibes which the opposition takes at Modi and the BJP. Modi in turn must create a rapport and strong relationships with the nearly 20-30 prominent leaders of the BJP at the national level and must extend respect, courtesy and importance to them. At every MOdi rally, he must be backed by 5-6 state level BJP leaders and 7-8 national level BJP leaders. The state leaders must talk about district, state and regional issues in that order while the

national leaders must talk about state, regional and national issues in that order and Mr Modi and a couple of prominent BJP leaders must also talk about international issues apart from state, regional and national issues. Before every rally, deep research by roping in local experts and research on newspapers/magazines and internet must be done on local, state and regional issues which are dear to the local people and which they relate to. The protégé (Modi) must have the backing of the mentor (Advaniji) as no shishya can ever aspire to complete his task without the blessings of his guru. Modi must mellow down a bit, he must learn to endear himself to others, especially his own party members, the people of this country and even to the opposition.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 2:47 AM No comments:

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Modi Going Strong, But Not Quite Right. Here’s Why!

India, a seven millennium-old civilisation is the cradle of many groundbreaking discoveries and has been a theatre of many earth-shaking events. India started losing leadership in the world map because we did not realise the importance of unity and divided our society along fissiparous lines. What’s more a thousand years back we stopped believing in ourselves and forgot our sense of self worth and self esteem. If you do not think well of yourself, or do not respect yourself or do not treat yourself well how will you expect others around the world to think well of you, respect you or treat you well. Respect and a healthy self respect for yourself can only be realised if its backed by clear thinking, clarity in purpose, goal-oriented action, hard work and moral credibility (man should strive for it).

At this juncture, change is necessary in the political landscape. The Congress has been in power at the Centre for close to 10 years but sadly the common man or the country has not benefitted. Media reports that their leaders have amassed hundreds and thousands of crores of rupees stashed away in overseas bank accounts, the party has lost touch with the people, its policies are questionable whether they would benefit the masses and India is becoming to look like a weak, and dithering old elephant. Why? Because its political leadership (by leadership I mean the CWC and top 20-30 leaders) has not got its priorities and agenda clear and right.

The leadership space is vacant in India right now and there is a leadership vacuum. The BJP must seize this moment and do what is necessary even if its bitter for the good of the country. Shri Narendra Modi is drawing large crowds in lakhs, but yet is not going quite right. A simple slip could swing out of control and could cost the BJP its golden chance to regain power at the centre. Here’swhy! In politics, every thought, word (written or spoken), behaviour and action is minutely scrutinised by the public and media, and rightly so, because these are a peek into the leader’s and party’s mind. Firstly, Shri Narendra Modi should stop taking barbs at the Gandhi family and Shri Rahul Gandhi directly, overtly and caustically. The Gandhi family (even if their deeds are questionable) have lead the country for several decades and Shri Modi’s barbs may not go well with their supporters, who could be in millions.

Further Shri Rahul Gandhi has not been nominated yet as the prime ministerial candidate by the Congress and Shri Modi should not take the battle to Shri Rahul’s court. In either case its a uneven battle. One is a aggressive 64-year old experienced political player, while Shri Rahul Gandhi is a relatively unwilling politician and is being thrust forward brutally by his own partymen. The Congress is doing a blunder by fielding Shri Rahul Gandhi, Smt Sonia Gandhi and Smt Priyanka Gandhi to be their sole star campaigners. Why is the

Congress afraid of putting up other seasoned leaders in its field (and I can think of atleast a score) who can hold the campaign well and provide support to the Gandhi family. One among the score of political seasoned leaders which the Congress has can later be put up as the prime ministerial candidate. To put the Gandhi family members under a 1000 ton pressure to lead the country at every juncture is merciless and not right. Smt Sonia Gandhi in 2004 had clearly expressed her unwillingness to don the PM’s mantle and to accuse the Gandhi family of cringing to power is intrinsically wrong and could backfire seriously.

The BJP must realise that as in other walks of life, in politics too the game is all about doing and saying the right thing and sticking as far as possible to the truth. Are the BJP central leaders providing enough support to Shri Narendra Modi? Not yet. Every rally of Shri Narendra Modi must be supported by 5-6 local/regional leaders and 5-6 national/central leaders. Is the BJP doing it right? NO! What are the issue the leaders must talk about? Local issues dear to the local people, regional issues and national/international issues which are dear to the common man should be highlighted and talked about. The BJP must do extensive research and consult with local leaders and find issues before its leaders address rallies. To go to someone’s house and to abuse him in his own house is intrinsically bad manners, and the BJP should guard against it. It may not go down well with the local people. The BJP leaders should draw attention to the oppositions fallacious policies, wrong programmes, loss to the district, region and country, suspect behaviour and actions but should refrain from making any direct frontal assault in a caustic way at the rival leaders. I again repeat the BJP must solidly stand behind its leader in letter and spirit but at the same time must also extend basic courtesy and politeness to leaders of rival parties.

So how must the BJP campaign progress for the next 6 months. Every BJP rally must be video recorded, edited with speech highlights and a

summary and must be shown in every village and district of the state on large screens for at least a month or two post the rally. It should increase the shelf life of the speech of its leaders by doing so. People will support you if you are perceived as good, decent leaders whom the people can identify with and not poison spewing persons. It should send speech highlights to local people via the media and other innovative ways. India needs change badly, and the BJP should not miss the truck this time. The Congress meantime should go back to the drawing board and mull is it the party which stood for values and steered India towards independence?Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 7:10 PM No comments:

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Ways in which the BJP can build a pan-India appeal

As things stand today, unless the BJP mucks it up badly, victory in the 2014 elections is a given certainty. By all accounts, the BJP and its allies will be in power after the 2014 elections. Thus building a pan-India appeal is an absolute necessity. This is how the BJP can do it. Its National Executive and its Parliamentary Board should be representative of India’S diverse population. BJP should appoint well articulated spokesperson carefully picked from all the different regions of India. BJP’s public faces must reflect this pan India appeal. IT must have a modern and developmental agenda for all sections of society and for every Indian without forgetting India’s history or its roots. Ram Temple and Ayodhya movements are a question of faith and should remain as such without dislodging the developmental political agenda of BJP. If a grand Ram Temple is built in Ayodhya every Hindu will be happy but it should happen without contravening the law, without creating law and order problems, by brotherly consensus of the principal opposing side, the Indian Muslims and the

principal political opposition, the Congress. Ram Temple should be a issue with the BJP always and not just during the elections, but it should be confined as a matter of faith, and not politics. BJP should have a very active and influential minority cell for the welfare of minorities like Sikhs, Jains, Budhhists, Muslims and Christians. It should have proportionate representations in its national executive from these faiths representing all areas of India. Persons from these faiths should also hold key positions in the BJP hierarchy. Most importantly, just like the Congress (and they must be commended for this), the BJP should work in unison, in tandem. If any of its member is in trouble, the whole BJP should come to its support and help the stricken party. The entire BJP should solidly stand behind its elected and appointed leader and should not do anything to undermine his authority or stature. It should not be seen as bickering and indulging in in-fighting. The old guard should graciously make way for the new guard and the new guard should openly and publicly acknowledge and thank the old guard for support and guidance. BJP should always play the role of a constructive and mature opposition and should assist in all development activities by the government for the welfare of the people of India and for India. It’s not about Hindus and Muslims, Right vs Left, rich or the poor, the haves and the have nots, inclusivity vs exclusivity. Its about India.

NARENDRA MODI—PRIME MINISTER IN WAITING: It’s clear by now that the groundswell of support for Narendra Modi as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate by the supporters of BJP in the general population is indeed overwhelming. Modi has a number of qualities

which stand him in good stead for this position. For one he has risen from the ranks of the BJP cadre thus endorsing the claim of BJP being a cadre-based party. For three long terms, he has successfully steered Gujarat’s fortune as one of the leading progressive states of India. He has the gumption of an astute political strategist and can act boldly with panace as was evident during the Uttarakhand disaster. He can take on the principal opposition, the Congress, with strong arguments always attacking its weaker points. He is indeed a good orator, and can deliver a speech to the target audience after gauging the mood of the public. He has age on his side: he is 63 and at this age can easily lead India for some time. But beware: there is a big oceanic difference between being the prime minister in waiting and actually becoming the prime minister. Modi must realise that a prime ministerial candidate has to appeal to all sections of the population, including the principal opposition. Without the principal oppositions consent and acceptance he cannot hope to become the prime minister even if he has the backing of his party. Why do I say this? Because, remember in 2004 when there was a clamour for Sonia Gandhi to become the prime minister but the move was scuttled because the principal opposition, the BJP, led by Sushma Swaraj vehemently opposed her candidature on the grounds of foreign origin birth. She went to the extent of saying that to oppose Sonia Gandhi’s candidature for the Prime Ministership she would sleep on the bare ground and only eat roasted grams. So the moot point is this. Modi must smoothen his rough edges, must become more amiable to allies and supporters within the party, attack the Congress not viciously spewing venom and poison but targeting its policies and programmes without heaping insult and scorn on its leaders. Its worthwhile to remember that even if the BJP comes to power, the cooperation of the principal opposition, the Congress, would still be necessary for the smooth functioning of the house and the unobstructed passage of bills. Further, he should not be seen as using people as stepping stones but should only acknowledge the role of seniors who have given him this opportunity when he was a nobody. Lastly, he should strongly condemn the 2002 riots in Gujarat

and should do everything to give justice to the aggrieved. But why the riots happened in the first place, should also not be forgotten.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 10:02 AM No comments:

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Why The RSS/BJP are Even More Relevant During Current Times

For the greater part of the last thousand years or a millennium, the predominantly Hindu subcontinent has been ruled by Muslims for 600 years and Christians for close to 300 years. In the organised programs conducted by those in power for centuries, historians estimate that approximately 150-200 million Hindus died defending their faith and an equal number, possibly more, were converted to Islam and Christianity. Yet in today’s independent India, it is laudable that Hindus have not carried the unfortunate baggage of the past and have extended respect, right to safety and right to opportunity to members of other faiths.

But here is where the problem lies. One would think and hope that Muslims and Christians would reconcile to a India led by a resurgent Hindu majority, but no. The Congress Party, the party in power for the greater part of independent India, has a sizeable proportion of

Muslim and Christian leaders who have more often than not prevailed over their Hindu counterparts in the party and have dictated the agenda for decades thus leading to concepts of pseudo secularism, and appeasement of minorities at the cost of the vast majority. My contention is that as a community, Muslims and Christians do not need any special reservations or favours to compete successfully with others in India. Muslims and Christians are perfectly well equipped and capable of looking after themselves and defending their faith by themselves in India.

I would extend this argument to say that despite their relatively small population, Muslims and Christians wield disproportionately high influence in all aspects of Indian life and often dictate the national agenda, albeit surreptitiously. In the Congress party, Muslims and Christians have the upper hand and often arm twist and bulldoze their Hindu counterparts to accepting a line of thought or action. In the Congress party, the public voices are those of Hindus, but the influence and the force behind these voices are those of their Muslim and Christian brethren. Besides this, it is a well known fact that in a family unit, the female spouse is the predominant factor in taking daily decisions. As it turns out many Congress Hindu leaders are married to Muslim and Christian female spouses who arm twist them and influence them to act according to their thinking.

Now look at the hapless Hindu. For one, he has no sense of identity: he is bogged down with several castes, sub castes, regionalism, etc. He is often brow beaten by other communities into accepting their line of thought. He feels like a stranger in his own land with the state going all out to usurp his sense of identity and being. He feels threatened in his own country. He does not feel safe in his own country. There is distinct danger that he could be reduced to a minority or become inconsequential in Indian polity. Enter the RSS/BJP. These two organisations are making the first major, organised attempt in India’s history to unify and consolidate Hindu sense of oneness and power. These efforts by the RSS/BJP could well

transfer power to Hindu hands. Now this possibility is detested by the Congress. Long since enjoying power in India, the Congress does not want to see a unified Hindu rank and file led by a powerful Hindu leader because then they will lose control over Indians and predominantly Hindus.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 6:27 AM No comments:

Friday, June 7, 2013

China Can’t Hold India’s Foreign Policy to Hostage

Today’s article ‘India Gets Close to Japan at its Own Peril’ in Global Times by Chinese scholar Liu Zongyi, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a research fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies will resonate in India’s policy corridors for a long time to come. The article stressed that Indian policymakers are aware of the benefits that being a swing state on the global stage can bring to India. This follows the conclusion of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visit to Japan where he held a range of security and economic dialogues with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This visit came after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's recent trip to India.

For one, Global Times is a state run paper having the tacit backing of the ruling communist party. The article throws light on China’s behaviour, albeit, myopic and aggressive towards its neighbours and the compulsions behind India’s foreign policy. It’s also time that India

by its behaviour and actions made its position very clear. India should not appear to hunt with the hounds and run with the hares. In other words it cannot afford to project itself as a swing state as the paper claims. India’s foreign policy must be formulated with our interests in mind and the ensuing problems with neighbouring countries. It is good to mend relations with difficult neighbours but we should not be seen to be cuddling up to them. There is no point in giving unnecessary concessions to such difficult neighbours.

The present times calls for realignment of strategic relations. BRICS should not be seen as a political and economic block. There is nothing which holds this group together in terms of ideology or markets except that they are emerging markets. But even in emerging markets, the action is shifting to SLIMA, CIVETS etc. India would do well to build an alliance with US, Britain, EU, Japan, Australia, Phillippines, Vietnam and South Korea and other friendly countries and push trade, commerce and security agenda with them. China has clearly shown to India by its behaviour and actions over the last few decades that it has scant respect for India, is domineering and a bully and understands only the language of strength. So be it. India should build a strong economic and security alliance with countries interested in keeping China in check even though the trade volume between China and India is about four times that of India and Japan.

Meanwhile, India’s economic growth began a feeble recovery at the tail end of a 2012 fiscal year that saw the slowest expansion in a decade. Asia’s third largest economy grew 4.8 per cent from a year earlier in the January-March quarter. The full year economic growth for the fiscal year 2012/13 came in at 5 per cent. The government data showed that the manufacturing sector grew an annual 2.6 per cent in the March quarter. The farm sector expanded 1.4 per cent from a year earlier. Mining sector, meanwhile, contracted an annual 3.1 per cent. The services sector, that makes up more than half of India’s economy grew an annual 6.6 per cent in the March quarter. Worryingly, annual capital investment growth slowed down to 3.5

per cent in the March quarter from 4.5 per cent year-on-year a quarter ago.

This despite India's share in global investments is expected to almost double by 2030, a World Bank report said. "In less than a generation, global saving and investment will be dominated by the developing world with India's share in global investments expected to almost double by 2030. No other country except China will be investing more than India globally," says the latest edition of World Bank's Global Development Horizons (GDH) report. The two countries together will account for 38 per cent of the global gross investment in 2030. In fact, developing countries' share in global investment is projected to triple by 2030 to three-fifths, from one-fifth in 2000," the World Bank said.

Meanwhile, The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the services industry today inched up to 53.6 in May, pointing to a solid expansion in output, one that was the fastest in three months. A reading above 50 shows that the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 shows that the output in the sector is contracting. Yet, India which was one of the largest recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the last decade has taken a turn last year when FDI registered a significant decline of 38 per cent to $22.42 billion. According to government estimates, India would require around $1 trillion in the next five years for its infrastructure requirements and to sustain its growth. This could be found in household savings which stand at $1.7 trillion.

Further, India's gold imports surged in May and along with oil imports these are one of the driving factors behind India's current account deficit — when the value of imports exceeds that of exports. And the current account deficit can hurt economic growth. This is because a large current account deficit (CAD) can impact foreign exchange rate and weaken the Indian rupee. If India has to pay more of its imports this would affect economic growth. As a weaker global

economy has impacted exports, India has used hot money to finance this deficit, and that money can flow out very quickly in a risk off environment. CAD reached a record high of 6.7% of GDP in the last quarter and has been blamed for weakening the Indian rupee.Compiled by assorted internet news sites and self analysis

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 12:50 AM No comments:

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Qualities Needed By The Head of The State

What are the qualities needed in the head of a State? The head of the State should first learn to master his senses before he can lay claim to master the populace. Only a person who has total control over his mind, thoughts and emotions is entitled to crown his head with the title of the head of the state. Such a person should have total mastery over his thoughts, speech, behaviour and actions. In politics you are a public person at every stage. Your most innocuous remark in a casual setting could be misinterpreted if you are not careful and it could imperil the lives of many people and cause you a great deal of difficulty. Therefore you have to be conscious of your eye gaze, the expressions on your face, your body language, your gait, the way you dress and carry yourself and the way you talk and conduct yourself.

But mastering oneself is a difficult task what since a human being has several emotions like fear, greed, lust, envy, hatred, pride, arrogance, conceitedness, selfishness, etc. Overcoming greed, fear and lust are the three most difficult emotions to overcome. But if you see things in the right perspective and develop the right thinking over time, maybe 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 years you can overcome these negative emotions. Attachment is another emotion that needs to be checked. One must realise that everything in this world is temporary and is subject to constant change. IF you realise that material or human beings are the source of temporary or fleeting sense of satisfaction and that everything must dissolve one day then you can come closer to saying goodbye to attachments. Learning to be happy with whatever little you have is another important quality which a public person must have.

Other important qualities that a public person requires is knowledge, vision and courage. A head of a state must have the necessary knowledge to run the complex affairs of the country. HE must have a army of knowledge workers who synthesise data and information and help him to take the right decisions. Vision and mission is also important. A head of a state must know what he would like the country to be like, what direction the country should embark upon, what are the solutions to the country’s problems and how should he achieve his objectives. Finally, the last and the most important quality he needs is COURAGE with a big C. He must have the courage of conviction in the face of stiff opposition to his ideas. He must enter action with boldness and fearlessness. He must have the courage to do what is right and put his foot down on what is wrong. Only then can he look into the mirror and not hang his head in shame.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 12:11 AM No comments:

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

20 Things BJP Should do to CRACK the 2014 Hustings

1. It should re-establish the supremacy of the parliamentary board and the national executive and should not allow anyone to dislodge these two bodies.

2. It is good to prepare in advance, but 2014 elections are still a long time away. It would be in good stead to focus on the ensuing state elections and deliver victories here first.

3. Prime Ministerial candidate should be the trump card and should be announced only after winning the 2014 elections. Therefore all efforts must be geared in this direction.

4. Carefully build a detailed dossier on UPA misrule, misgovernance, harassment of public/individuals, corruption scandals on the basis of last 10 year media reports and public feedback and go national with a thunderbolt blitzkrieg in stages all over the country.

5. BJP leaders should be careful and judicious in the language they use to criticise and flay Congress/UPA leaders and the approach should be of stating facts/figures without sounding acidic or toxic or vitriolic.

6. Dont be apologetic about your strengths. Hindutva should be promoted as a way of life, as cultural nationalism (unity despite diversity). Strong India, good governance, Ram Mandir/RSS.

7. BJP should evolve itself in accepting all communities, castes and religions from all regions of India. IT should build and sustain a pan-India appeal.

8. It should focus on the following key constituencies and stakeholders: women, employed/unemployed youth, old aged people, MSME businesses, youth under 35.

9. It should interact with the 21st century youth on social media like facebook, twitter, linkedin, stumbleupon, pinterest, digg, Delicious etc.

10. It should build bridges with universities, colleges, schools, think tanks and research institutions and make them a stakeholder in success.

11. In collaboration with experts from different field, it should articulate well thought out stands on various national and international issues through its front ranking leaders.

12. Congress is a cohesive party and works in tandem, in synchrony. BJP leaders/spokespersons should target 4-5 key leaders of Congress in pleasant language but consistently exposing their weaknesses and failures. Once you strike at the generals, the soldiers will fall in disarray.

13. All BJP-ruled states should now start highlighting their good governance record and establish their achievements, developments in a systematic manner through innovative means and media in stages all over the country.

14. Most importantly, it should project a unified image with all party cadres and second, third rank leaders following solidly behind the first rank leaders.

15. All front ranking leaders who speak in public must be well read and informed and should be briefed daily on important issues by the media staff.

16. BJP should reach out to 10,000 top medium and large enterprises all over India and apprise them of its policy and stand on various issues.

17. BJP should network with key stakeholders in foreign embassies/consulates in India and apprise them of their success states and good governance.

18. It should organise various BJP-ruled state meets where foreign investors, states of foreign countries are invited over the next one year.

19. This is a must: It should initiate a award/reward in technology, science and entrepreneurship for technocrats, scientists and entrepreneurs from all over the world and let the first show be held in a BJP-ruled state this year.

20. IT should draw out a media strategy and engage with regional. National and international media and also build bridges with journalists of these media.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 5:15 PM No comments:

Saturday, April 6, 2013

The Maturing of India’s National Parties

India’s national parties, the Congress and the BJP, have shown distinct signs of maturing in the past 10-15 years. For one, the top leadership in both the parties has a pan-India vision, they are well read and have a well-articulated stand on international issues, there is broad consensus on important policy issues like defence, international relations, foreign policy and internal security. This is a good sign and shows that there will be continuity on important issues irrespective of the party in power. This is an indication of the fact that the ensuing 2014 elections will be fought on regional and local issues especially since regional parties have gained prominence in the last decade. However, there are still areas where we need to go a long way. For one, the ruling party must avoid using the CBI to ‘settle’ scores, pressurise or armtwist opponents, and there should be a complete elimination of politically influenced violence by behaviour or actions on individuals or entities.

However the maturity levels need to be fine tuned and tweaked a wee bit more. This was most apparent after Hon’ble Shri Rahul Gandhi’s CII address, the many pot shots by the BJP spokespersons and the counter strikes by Congress spokespersons on Hon’ble Shri Narendra Modi. We need to go beyond personal attacks on individuals and focus attention on their policies and actions. To see both sides sparring over two speeches does not befit a ‘great’ democracy like India. However, what is a good thing is that over the decades there is a great deal of toleration and acceptance of either parties stance and philosophical tilt. For the BJP to have a greater

pan-Indian acceptance, it should build itself on inclusiveness of castes, religions and regions, and promote Hindutva more as a way of life, like Hon’ble Advaniji’s cultural nationalism minus some aberrations, with its main political plank being ‘good governance’ and ‘strong Indian identity’.

WE NEED TO SALVAGE THE PRIDE OF INDIA; WE NEED TO SALVAGE THE PRIDE IN BEING INDIAN. Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 8:54 PM No comments:

Sunday, March 31, 2013

The History of the Swastika

The Swastika is an extremely powerful symbol and for centuries it has had positive meanings. What is the history of the swastika? The Swastika is an ancient symbol that has been used for over 3,000 years. (That even predates the ancient Egyptian symbol, the Ankh!) Artifacts such as pottery and coins from ancient Troy show that the Swastika was a commonly used symbol as far back as 1000 BCE. During the following thousand years, the image of the Swastika was used by many cultures around the world, including in China, Japan, India, and southern Europe. By the Middle Ages, the Swastika was a well known, if not commonly used, symbol but was called by many different names: China – wan; England – fylfot; Germany – Hakenkreuz; Greece - tetraskelion and gammadion and India –

Swastika. Though it is not known for exactly how long, Native Americans also have long used the symbol of the Swastika.

The word "Swastika" comes from the Sanskrit svastika - "su" meaning "good," "asti" meaning "to be," and "ka" as a suffix. Until the Nazis used this symbol, the Swastika was used by many cultures throughout the past 3,000 years to represent life, sun, power, strength, and good luck. Even in the early twentieth century, the Swastika was still a symbol with positive connotations. For instance, the Swastika was a common decoration that often adorned cigarette cases, postcards, coins, and buildings. During World War I, the Swastika could even be found on the shoulder patches of the American 45th Division and on the Finnish air force until after World War II.

For 3,000 years, the Swastika has meant life and good luck. For Buddhists and Hindus, the Swastika is a very religious symbol that is commonly used. In ancient times, the direction of the Swastika was interchangeable as can be seen on an ancient Chinese silk drawing. Some cultures in the past had differentiated between the clockwise Swastika and the counter-clockwise Sauvastika. In these cultures the swastika symbolized health and life while the sauvastika took on a mystical meaning of bad-luck or misfortune. The swastika is actually an ancient symbol, but its origin is hard to define. In "The Swastika," Folklore, W. G. V. Balchin says the word swastika is of Sanskrit origin and the symbol is one of good luck or a charm or a religious symbol (the last, among the Jains and Buddhists) that goes back to at least the Bronze Age. It appears in various parts of the ancient and modern world. This article mentions Christians did, indeed, consider the swastika for their symbol.

One popular notion holds that it is a very old solar symbol. The swastika resembles a lot like the "Greek" cross in its symmetry, if you take out those little "wings" from the swastika. That's one connection I can find with Christianity. Of course many pre-Christian

symbols were redefined and "used" by Christians of all times (with varying success). The Swastika is indeed a sun symbol from antiquity, appropriate in many themes and on many occasions. Like flood legends, the Swastika (in various recognizable styles) is one of many symbols found throughout ancient civilisations having no possible contact (as we understand contact) with each other. Usually it meant the sun, in its scheme as "the wheel of life". (Mayan, I believe.) It was also a popular good luck symbol. For example, it can be found on pre-1930 American New Year's greeting cards. A white Swastika on a black field was the flag of an American Boy Scout Troop from its founding to some point in the 1930's, when the Troop itself voted to discontinue its use.

The Indian and Vedic connection is likely the swastika's oldest incarnation. The symbol itself may still be found as an architectural element, decorating sufficiently aged temples to whatever deity is involved. There is a simply fascinating documentary on the swastika, and its journey from mystic rune to fascist emblem. If memory serves, a particular German woman of wealth, and the upper class, made it her cause to sponsor the swastika into its position as The Emblem of the Nazi party. As often happens after wars, mysticism and spiritualism was popular throughout post WW1 and the 1920's. She appears to have been a true believer of some kind, and felt the Swastika itself had the power to lead Germany to ultimate triumph, that soldiers who fought under it would obtain super-strength, etc. The Swastika is (or was, depending on your WWII point of view) actually a symbol of good luck, and possibly of fertility and regeneration.

Several ancient cultures associated the symbol with the sun, although I'm not sure of the actual details on this. The Navajo Indians also had a similar symbol - depicting their gods of the mountains, rivers, and rain. In India, the Swastika is an auspicious mark - worn as jewelry or marked on objects as a symbol of good luck. The symbol, though, is extremely ancient and predates Hinduism. The Hindus

associated it with the sun and wheel of birth and rebirth. It is an emblem of the Hindu god Vishnu, one of the supreme Hindu deities. Swastika is a Buddhist symbol for peace, as it still appears nowadays on Buddhist temples in Asia. I have seen one in a bi-lingual edition of a Taiwanese magazine. The editors felt the necessity of explaining in the English text that Swastika is a Buddhist symbol of peace, and this is why the puzzled European reader could see it in pictures showing temples. A difference however can be noticed: the orientation of the arms is clockwise in the Buddhist swastika and anti-clockwise in the one adapted by the Nazis. The Swastika... has nothing to do with the swastika used as the symbol in Nazi Germany. That symbol is from Nordic runes and was used in Nordic tribes' pagan culture. Later it was also used by the Teutonic Knights formed in the 12th century. Courtesy: NS Gill and Jen RosenbergPosted by Kanishka Gupta at 12:13 AM No comments:

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Goodness (Righteousness) Must be Backed by Massive Strength

Structure of the Mind: The human mind is driven by the following building blocks in human beings. These are thoughts, imagination and emotions. Actions which are led by faith, hope and love result in health, happiness and success. These building blocks are real, tangible entities which can create and shape the future. At the baser level are the instincts of ignorance, lust, greed, envy, covetousness, which lead to fear and violence.

Present structure of the Indian state: Currently, the Indian state is governed by the executive, legislature and judiciary, the civil society and private enterprise. Amongst all these five entities, it is the nature of the legislature which has the maximum impact on society. At present, the Indian political system is such that it works on the principle of inspiring fear, promoting confusion and suppression of truth and facts to control the masses. As a result decision making, clarity of purpose, action based on faith and hope become the prime victims.Desirable outcome in the Indian state: The following text is based on the premise that one can shape his future and that the future is shaped by deliberate, wilful activity in the present when one has a clear road map for the journey ahead. This calls for purity of intent and purpose, and the pursuit of karma with dharma. It calls for the protection of righteousness and truth defended by massive strength. It calls for the amalgamation of dharma yodhas with karma yogis at the governing level. In ancient Indian philosophy, the king is an extension of GOD himself, and by default has all the necessary divine qualities for the protection and the benefit of his subjects. It is the wilful creation of a governing class based on these ideals which will propel India into the league of a powerful and respected global nation. Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 11:46 PM No comments:

BJP: Growth-Driven Party, Responsible Opposition

"We should take pledge that 2014 will be BJP's year. We have to stand united. The atmosphere in the country is in party's favour...If 20th century was the century of Congress, let the 21st century be the century of BJP," BJP newly elect President Rajnath Singh said at the

BJP national executive in March this year. Rajnath Singh is right. There could be no better opportune moment than the current times for fortune to favour the BJP. The winds of change are blowing in favour of the BJP and the party needs to craft out a realistic and smart strategy to come back to power in 2014. IT needs to bury its differences at the top levels, stand solidly behind a clean, non controversial, strong and dynamic leader, highlight the achievements of BJP rules states through innovative means in all the media, build a strong connect with the citizens, articulate well thought out and deliberated stance on national and international issues, become more active on the national, international and regional media, and finally like a smart salesman should emphasise its strengths and neutralize its weaknesses.

Undoubtedly, the Congress-led UPA government has blundered astronomically in the second term being widely criticized for corruption, nepotism, poor governance, failing law and order situation in the country and victimizing and harassing supporters of BJP. Praise for the BJP ruled states is coming in from all sides, and from Congress itself. Union Minister Jairam Ramesh raised a few eyebrows when, stepping away from the one-upmanship that has characterized relations between the Centre and Opposition-ruled states, he heaped praise on the BJP governments in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The outspoken Rural Development Minister applauded the two states for revolutionising agricultural.

BJP ruled states are in the forefront of progress and development having embraced the mantra of good governance. Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi came in for special praise at the BJP national executive meeting recently. Modi came in for repeated praise in Rajnath Singh's speech. Gujarat has emerged a leader in power and energy sectors under BJP rule. During 2009-10, Gujarat emerged as the runner-up with a GDP growth rate of 10.53 per cent. The state's GDP at constant prices over the last decade went to Rs 2,52,528 crore.

BJP-led Madhya Pradesh dislodged champion Bihar this March from its numero uno position in terms of highest growth of gross state domestic product. The provisional data released by the Central Statistical Organisation for 2012-13 for states shows Bihar's growth has slowed, slipping from an impressive 13.26% last year to a single digit 9.48% this year as against 10% clocked by MP. In comparison, MP has fared better, adding more than Rs 20,000 crore to its economy during the last one year, and expanding its GDP from Rs 2,01,290 crore last year to Rs 2,21,463 crore this year. MP has been another consistent performer. It grew by 12.47% in 2008-09 .The following year it defied downturn to post a respectable 9.88%. Though it came down to 7.13% the next year, it bounced back to double digit by managing a rate of 11.81% in 2011-12.

Further, Just 10 years in existence as a state, Chhattisgarh has left behind Bihar to emerge as the state with the highest economic growth in the last fiscal. The state, carved out from Madhya Pradesh in November 2000 and long known as a hot-bed of left wing extremism, clocked a GDP growth rate of 11.49 per cent in constant prices at Rs 60,080 crore in 2009-10. Chhattisgarh's impressive performance in FY10 follows high growth rate during last few years. The central Indian state had clocked a GDP growth of 17.51 per cent in 2006-07 and 11.71 per cent in 2007-08, before dipping to 6.81 per cent in 2008-09.

However, it’s bad news for Karnataka. Growth is slowing down, and inter-state comparisons of socio-economic development indicate that human development indices are stagnating in Karnataka. The Economic Survey for 2011-12 has revealed that the state fared the worst in terms of growth in 2009-10 with a paltry 3.88%, compared with an all-India average of 7.96%. In contrast, the growth in Uttarakhand was almost three times that of Karnataka — at 11.61%. The slowdown in the state becomes more obvious when one takes into account the 2004-05 to 2009-10 growth of 8.65%, which was close to the national average of 8.63%. Karnataka’s human development index (HDI) ranking, too, remains stationary — it was placed 12th in 1999-2000; the position remained the same in 2007-08.

BJP’s cadre based leadership is a more inclusive and democratic way of running a party and it has some excellent leaders in the front ranks and the second and third ranks. Vajpayeeji will be remembered as a man who built BJP into a national party and together with its members took the BJP’s tally in the Lok Sabha from 3 to over 150 in 30 years time. Vajpayee’s strength as a great organizer of party has earned him admirers in India and abroad. HE deftly managed a 25-party coalition, the bus ride to Pakistan before Kargil showed his tremendous courage, blasting the n-bomb despite international sanctions showed his grit and determination, the golden quadrilateral road project and the first non-congress government to complete a full term not to forget sowing the seeds of a strategic partnership with the US were his other achievements. Vajpayee’s singular strength was that he could identify and embrace good and sound advice and implement it even if it came from the most remotest or hidden corners of the country.

If Vajpaeeji has now retired from politics it is Advaniji who is guiding the party and serving as a solid rock of sound advice. He is truly Mount Kailash, rock solid, wisened by thousands of years of natures onslaughts and a firm anchor to the party. Advanijis chief contribution is to stand up for Hindu honour and dignity, fight for the

right and self respect of Hindus, his numerous rath yatras which have helped keep India united during tough times or in other words cultural nationalism. HE has firmly proved that though Indians may speak 1500 odd different languages and dialects and have different customs and traditions, with different faith, religion and castes we are united by culture. To be in the opposition faced by a belligerent ruling party, Advaniji has shown that he is a tough man and made of nerves of steel. Whats more BJP has a galaxy of leaders who can steer the party in different regions during tough and challenging times. They are Arun Jaitley, the master orator, Sushma Swaraj-the fiery pragmatist, Rajnath Singh, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Murli Manohar Joshi, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Prakash Javadekar, Dr Raman Singh, Shivraj Chauhan, and many more. With all things going in its favour it would indeed be a big disappointment and a surprise if in the 2014 hustings things turned otherwise.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 1:43 PM No comments:

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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Next Two Years Will Be Crucial For India's Foreign/Intelligence Departments

The next two years are crucial for India in terms of foreign policy and intelligence operations. Why? Because in the next 1-2 years there will be a change in leadership starting with India itself, US, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan and some 2-3 more countries. So should India’s intelligence agencies be caught with its pants down. No! India should in earnest start collecting data and information on the likes and dislikes, policies, stance, national and world view of the new aspirants and the parties they represent in the respective countries. India, starting today, should put its foreign office and external intelligence agencies on high alert and should direct them to gather all possible information---personal, professional, social, public---on the candidates and the parties which are likely to come into power in these countries. This information gathered will be useful for India to articulate its stand and policies when the time is ripe.

CAN THERE BE AN ASIAN CENTURY? There has been talk that the 21st century will be Asia's, just as the 20thcentury was America's and the 19th century was Britain's. The 20th century was America’s not by default or accident but by design because it willfully crafted a world strategy for global dominance by building crucial alliances and associations. So we saw the formation of NATO, the Asia-Pacific alliance, and so on. But does Asia have such alliances in place? Not by the looks of it. The only Asian body in operation is the Asian Development Bank. There have been regional associations that have flourished but nothing on a pan-Asian level. Is it necessary? I cant say, because Asian countries are ideologically diverse. In this context, India should strengthen the SAARC, BIMSTEC, Indian Ocean Rim

Association for Regional Cooperation, etc. We should seek to have a influence and be able to shape events in a radius of 4000-5000 kms from our shoreline and land borders.

WELL THOUGHT-OUT REFORMS NECESSARY: The economic reforms of 1991 have definitely helped many people in India become wealthy. However, the second wave of economic reforms should be designed to bring riches to the poor, give a boost to MSMEs and generate large-scale employment, build a strong middle and lower middle class, improving the human development indices levels and bringing more people out of the poverty index. Reforms are badly needed in the labour sector, the administrative sector, the police sector and policies must be made attractive to draw FII and foreign investments. Goods and Services Tax and pension reforms should also be implemented at the earliest. What happened to SEZs? No one is hearing about them. The setting up of SEZs and their becoming operational and functional must be speeded up to boost manufacturing in the country. In the manufacturing sector, a focus should be on small and medium sized enterprises.

DATA, INFORMATION & KNOWLEDGE CENTRE: India’s politicians are hopelessly and inadequately informed. Parliamentarians, legislators and councilors are not getting the right information and advice to implement far reaching changes. Legislators are politicians in India who have scant regard for learning and knowledge. But we should always remember that the 21st century is a data, knowledge and information age. Our legislators are woefully ill equipped to handling, storing, processing and analyzing data, information and knowledge. Each councilor, legislator, and parliamentarian at the municipal, state and national level must have an office of 6-7 experts on economy, business, industry, education, health, security at the municipal, state and national level and this team should give our legislators sound advice which can help them frame policies and take the necessary action for the welfare and good of their respective municipalities, state, district or the nation. Officers of the Indian Information

Services along with experts from the private, public and civic life should man these services.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 6:40 PM 1 comment:

Romney's Win Could Spark Another Round of Cold War

Undoubtedly, the highlight of the fortnight is the American Presidential elections. What does it mean for India and the world? While both Obama and Romney are affable and good gentlemen, there is a not so subtle difference in their policies and stances. Lets look at defense. Obama wants a cut in defense spending called sequestration to the tune of $1 trillion in the next 10 years. This will affect the small players in the US defence industry. Obama also wants friendly allies to up their defense spending so that the US can divert and channelize the money saved in propping up its domestic economy. Lets look at Mitt Romney. Romney still sees Russia as the No. 1 challenger if not the No. 1 enemy. He has promised that American defense spending will be accelerated to the tune of 4% of the GDP. This means an increase of over $2 trillion in the next 4 years. Romney also says that on being elected, he will declare China as the biggest currency manipulator. Romney wants a powerful America which plays a major role in maintaining security in the

world. He wants to build new frigates, new bombers and aircraft carriers. Meanwhile, Russia has said that it does not accept US domination of world affairs and is against its encroachment in Eastern Europe. Russia plans to increase its defense spending by 50% by 2015. What is the prognosis if Romney wins? One, that US and Russia will be again at loggerheads if Romney wins and this could lead to the start of Cold War II. Second, what does it mean for India if Romney wins? India will be placed in a highly awkward position. While Romney’s win will be good for the US and he might just well help America regain its lost glory making it more assertive on the world stage, an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between Russia and the US could start another arms race between the two superpowers. If Romney wins, the best thing India could do is to remain neutral, however, favoring the US since it shares democratic and liberal values and a free market economy but not altogether ignoring Russia, since Russia has helped India to a great extent in the 70s and 80s. But if Russia builds a nexus with China, then we should go all out in support of and back the US, EU, Japan and Australia.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 5:23 PM No comments:

Monday, October 29, 2012

Does India Have a Policy to Counter Cyber Threat?

Like always, the leader in global trends and ideas, the US, has fast detected the threat of cyber terrorism and cyber war on its soil. Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, recently said that the cyber threat was more visible now following the Iraq/Afghanistan wars and could cripple the country public and private computer systems. Shamoon, a malware that infected Saudi Arabia’s computer systems in the country’s largest oil/gas producer was cited as an example. Panetta also warned of a Pearl Harbour type cyber attack that could take the US by storm. Not surprisingly, the US Congress is in the verge of passing some bills seeking greater military role in cyber security both in the public and private spaces. Cyber attacks are capable of crippling a country’s energy, transportation, financial and banking systems. Is India alive to the threat. Even though 60 percent of our country is living in the 17th century, a small part is up to date with the latest in modernity. Should the government not set up a division for defensive and offensive positions in cyber security and cyber warfare? There must be joint cooperation between the government, public and private sector to secure India’s computer networks. Meanwhile, the US is getting ready to implement the country biggest defence cut in the next 10 years known as sequestration. Approximately 1 trillion dollars will be cut in military expenditures. Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 11:48 AM No comments:

Sunday, October 28, 2012

India Must Make Markets Attractive To Draw Investments

For global investors, the BRICs are losing their sheen even as other emerging markets, especially Indonesia and Philippines become

more attractive. What are the reasons behind this? Both Indonesia and Philippines have grown at a robust 6-6.5 per cent per annum for the last 2-3 years. Their domestic consumption demand is almost two thirds of the GDP. Philippines, with a median age of 22 and with a large English speaking population is fast becoming a more attractive BPO destination than India. Rating agencies such as Fitch, S&P and Moody’s have raised the credit rating of both these countries. In this scenario, India cannot rest on its past laurels and must create conditions necessary to attract foreign investment so badly needed to augment infrastructure projects. There are approximately 40 other emerging markets who are moving up the value chain with the doggedness of a bulldozer, and unless our capital markets look attractive the money from global investors could definitely go elsewhere. Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 4:21 PM No comments:

Sunday, October 21, 2012

World War III Could Happen in Asia in The Next 5-10 Years

As global economic woes continue to haunt world leaders, the world itself seems to be on the brink of a precipice and a large full scale war in Asia. What are the factors that determine this prognosis? Lets look at the EU where the sovereign debt crisis has gone out of control with another bailout being mulled for Greece and also for Spain. Analysts believe that France and Italy may also go the way of

Greece and Spain. The situation is so bad in Spain that some Spaniards were found rummaging for food in the country’s supermarket trashbins. The world’s largest economic block, the EU is imploding. Let’s look at the US. While polls show that the US could avoid a fiscal cliff, it has record unemployment, its budget deficit is at an all time high, and housing transactions have fallen. Yet the economic growth in the US could be better the next quarter. Democrat Barack Obama’s administration is pitching for budget cuts in the military and is urging countries in EU, South America and Asia to up their military budgets as the US having spent considerably in the wars on Iraq and Afghanistan is increasingly wary of providing security umbrella to friendly countries. Not surprisingly in Asia, countries such as South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore have increased their defence budgets and are going on a weapon’s acquisition drive much vary of a increasingly assertive, secretive and belligerent China. Besides, this the tussle between China and Japan over a clutch of islands which are rich in gas/minerals could spin out of control. Nationalist feelings are at an all time high in both these countries. World economic growth has been slashed to 3.3 per cent as a whole, with the advanced economies set to grow at 1.3 per cent and developing economies set to grow at 5.3 per cent, the IMF said recently. Growth in the world economy could increase marginally if the world fixes its unregulated hedge and derivatives trading, the World Bank said. What is necessary is accommodative monetary policies, steady fiscal consolidation and fixing the financial systems to spur growth, the IMF has advised. But the question is what factors point to a full scale blown out war in Asia or World War III. Some of the points above mentioned need to be factored but also the fact that Israel/Palestinian problems, Iran, Pakistan, China’s problems with Japan and southeast Asian countries, the deteriorating global economic order, the slowing of growth in the drivers of global growth namely China and India. The global economic recession is indeed very deep and entrenched and the world stands at where it stood in 1933, just before the start of the World War II.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 2:09 PM No comments:

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Riband Capitalism is Under Attack in Many Parts of The World

The current global economic recession could last for another 5-6 years, IMF chief economist said recently in Hungary. Besides, IMF has also pared the growth rate for India to 4.9 percent. What do these two developments portend for India? First, the assessments are realistic and quite accurate and therefore, these factors need to be taken into account while making policy or plans. By opening up more sectors of the economy, the GoI will help attract more investment into India. But economic reforms must be carried out gradually and deliberately keeping the welfare of the vast underprivileged in India. Will reforms lead to greater job creation, will it bring in necessary technological and managerial expertise into India which the country is currently lacking? Will they help raise the per capita GDP in India? Will they help the common man in India to raise his income levels in a lawful way? Will they help in boosting infrastructure in vital areas? Riband capitalism is under attack in many parts of the world, and it is

generally felt that the working class is paying for the ‘priviliges’ the affluent enjoyed on borrowings or credit. Certain aspects of capitalism may not necessarily be good for India and we need to adapt this concept suitably keeping our peculiar conditions in mind. An open economy where entrepreneurship can thrive and where businesses can flourish is good but at the same time there must be safety nets in the form of social security. We need an environment where Indian businesses thrive and can compete with the best in the world.

Russia, Pakistan Ties Should Not Alarm IndiaRussia and Pakistan have recently exchanged trade delegations and there have been quite a few high profile visists from one to the other. This should not be a concern for India. As India embraces a more liberal, open economy and a pluralistic democratic environment we will naturally gravitate towards the US, EU, Japan and Australia where we have shared values. Russia, sensing this will also balance this with forging alliances with those with whom it was not so cosy earlier. However, Russia has helped India a lot in the 60s, 70s, and 80s in basic industries. We should value this help which the erstwhile Soviet Union extended to India and should maintain a healthy and trusting relationship with Russia. We should push for more ties in those sectors where there can be transfer of technology in key areas. Russia has supported India on many issues in the UN on many occassions and we should never forget that. However things have changed in the last 20-25 years. The world is a lot more different place. The Soviet-US cold war is over and now we are entering a phase of Sino-US cold war. Without overtly appearing to be anti-Chinese, we should have our rooks and knights in place and play in concert with democratic nations. Relationships even with countries espousing different ideologies can be carried out provided it serves our interest from trade, economics or commerce. Should China and Russia cosy up beyond the current levels, then we should not hesitate to ally with US, Japan and Australia. Gain some, lose

some. Gains in some relationships will invariably lead to losses in some other relationships. But so be it.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 1:08 PM 1 comment:

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

War Looms Over Asia, Global Economic Outlook Bleak

As governments around the world do little to match policy with action, the global economy could slow further in 2013, the IMF has said. The US Presidential elections in November this year could determine the future course of US fiscal policy and hence, the world economy. A military option being considered for Syria/Iran problems could spark another round of hike in petrol prices. Military conflict looms over tensions between China/Japan over Senkaku/Daioyu islands. Climate change has cost the world $1.3 trillion, 1.6% fall in annual GDP and 400,000 deaths, the DARA group reported. Data from around the world show that the US/EU may be entering another round of recession putting pressure on growth rates of BRICS/emerging markets. Among emerging markets, CIVETS, MIST, SLIMA could be the drivers of growth, says Marc Mobius. As China rearranges its economy from export-led to domestic consumption-led, new economy Chinese stocks look attractive compared to old economy stocks. While emerging market currencies strengthend a

while mid last week, the actions of Central banks in the developed economies might weaken currencies in the emerging markets as they may be devalued. India’s regionalism and politics of appeasement should not in any way weaken a strong centre. The government should be seen as decisive and purposeful. Oil/gas sourcing should be diversified and alternative fuel/energy sources should be found. Reforms should be carried out in steady steps keeping the Indian conditions in mind.

Do what is right: Are the national parties in India losing their sheen? Looks like. This is pertinent because they seem to be obsessed with gaining/controlling/retaining power and all their actions are determined by that. But you dont get the prize by doing what others expect you to do, you dont get the applause by playing to the gallery, you dont win the game by how the spectators want you to play. Parties must determine their policies/actions based on what is good and right for the country and the people. The character of a nation develops when it does the right thing under tough and difficult times. That’s the yardstick. The right actions or policies can vary from time to time. What is relevant today may not be relevant tomorrow. So how do you determine what is right? That can be based on how one wants to see the present. Contextual intelligence and situational awareness is very important in this case. Let’s see what are the 5 most important issues plaguing India right now. These are: education, employment, territorial integrity, economic growth and good governance. Address these issues first. Actions must be made on boosting the growth indices in these areas. History will not judge you by how long you ruled, but how well you ruled and what you delivered. History will judge you by how you made things happen and how you changed the course of action. Remember, you dont win the game just because you want to win it, but because you have mastered the game, its rules and because you know how to play it well. The good player will always win, whereas the one who does not win is invariablly because he does not know how toplay well.

Prove your credentials: There is a lot of talk in the Indian media about the rise of regional chieftains/satraps in Indian politics. Who are the chief players in this arena? They are: Narendra Modi, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Biju Patnaik, etc. In one way this is a good thing that the country is having good managers in the state. Its good for the state and their people. No doubt, this will help the overall development of India. But their also have been talks by the media of some of them aspiring for the prime minister’s position. I think these allegations are false because none of them have openly, consciously said that they aspire to be prime ministers. Let’s face it: at any given point of time there are atleast half a dozen people in India who could be potential prime ministers. But at any given time there can be only one prime minister. Regional chieftains can certainly become prime ministers if they demonstrate a legacy of good governance, able administration and statesman like approach. Picking on petty issues only makes one look like a petty player, not a national player. This national outlook, if they aspire for the prime ministership, should be reflected in their talk, behaviour and actions. This will be reflected in what their world view and what their national view is. I dont think India will ever fall short of prime ministerial candidates. Surely a billion Indians can put a half dozen people for this position.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 5:13 PM No comments:

Saturday, September 29, 2012

India Growth To Remain Muted For Next 6-12 Months

Economy to Remain Tepid: The US remains in a fiscal cliff and the world economy has entered the twilight zone. Manufacturing has slowed in the US, EU, and in China it has been the slowest in the last quarter. Yet, emerging market stocks and investment look attractive, so far. One must now give up aspirations for 6-8 per cent GDP growth and settle for 4-5.5 per cent growth for the next 12 months. To boost consumer spending, the government should lower interest rates, and release more liquidity in the market. Reforms must carry on at a steady pace without shocks or otherwise India risks being the only emerging market to be rated as junk. Subsidies must be only for the 20 percent of the poorest and they must be scrapped gradually in phases. Borrowing on credit must be curtailed. Credit card companies must make stricter norms for issuing such cards and payment defaulters who have a history should be denied credit cards. Focus should be on reigning in inflation, creating employment, boosting exports and increasing revenues. In military developments, China unveiled its latest stealth fighter the J-21 which has striking similarities to the US F22. China clearly is in a different league and aspires global, challenging US/Russia/EU. China’s military industrial complex is very advanced with over 1,000 companies. Its defence budget currently is $150 billion and is slated to rise to $250 billion by 2015. Elsewhere, BAe/EADS is mulling merger to create a behemoth rivaling Boeing. The slowdown is a good time for mergers/acquisitions.

Curtailing Corruption: Over the last two years, the 3G spectrum scam and coal block allocations have rocked the nation. The moot question is: why do scams happen? How much does a man and his family need to live a comfortable life in a metropolis, a city, a town or a village? I would say it would be seven times the market rent of a 2-3 BHK home in a decent neighbourhood. If that is the case, then why are people in power clamouring for spoils in the region of thousands of crores? Is it greed, desire, keeping up with the joneses, future security, leaving a legacy for their children, etc? Either way, the argument for accumulating wealth in the region of hundreds or thousands of crores cannot be justified. In a country where 60 percent of the masses can barely afford a meal three times a day, a shelter for themselves and decent clothing, having some people garnering thousands of crores is unforgivable. The solution is to be found at the hiring stage. Public servants, whether legislators, bureaucrats or judiciary must be hired at the initial stage based on their attitude and psychological makeup for being fit to render public service. There are hundreds of ways to ensure that only people who do not covet great wealth are hired as public servants.

Natural Resource Allocation: There has been a hue and cry recently over faulty assessment and allocation of national property and resources like spectrum and coal. Is it so difficult to find a just and fair method for allocation of natural resources? If the government’s fundamentals and basics are grounded in reality and are clear, then it becomes not so difficult. The questions to answer are: who are the major stakeholders in natural resources. The answer is: primarily the local population, state and central governments, and the private sector. Benefits to each stakeholder must be commensurate with his percentage of importance. Thus, the local population which has been staying for hundreds of years must be regarded as the prime stakeholder, followed by the state/central government and then the private players. In terms of percentage of financial benefits this could be 30 per cent for the local population, 50 per cent for the state/central governments and 20 per cent for the private industry. If

you have a situation where the private players corner the majority of the spoils at the expense of the local population, you are creating a likely situation for unrest and heart burn. Besides the state treasury would also get bankrupt. Despite, simple arithmetics, yet resource allocation is highly skewed because the system is geared to enriching a few private players and political leaders at the expense of the state treasury and local inhabitants.

Need to Fight Crime: We are no longer safe in Delhi, is the rising tide of comments by many Delhiites. Rape, muder, dacoity, abduction, kidnapping , robberies are on the rise. The newspapers are full of them and one gets a nauseating feeling in the morning when you read the newspapers. Newspapers must have a pullout for the crime section, which subscribers have the option to take or not to take. Its necessary to introduce the study of moral science in the secondary school stage as is the practice in many convent schools. Further, every school must have a psychology and career counsellor to assist disturbed students in putting their emotional, psychological, family life in order. Solve it just in time and nip it in the bud. A situation should not come when citizens feel that the state is ineffective in providing security. Hiring of constables and junior police officers must be done strictly on merit and aptitude and not on nepotism or bribing, as has been reported very often. The beat constable is the one who is the face of the police force, and he must be a strong person with good moral character, integrity and be service oriented. He must be paid well, his family should be looked after well, and he should not be subjected to round the clock duty or be forced to do double shifts. In short the police force needs to be augmented. Further, citizens can also step in. Patrolling by private, well trained guards by RWAs must be stepped up. Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 12:25 PM No comments:

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Asia Ups Defence Spending, Becoming Increasingly Militarised

It might be big business in the developed and industrialised countries but the defence industry is flexing its muscle with greater intent when it comes to displaying, developing and selling their wares to countries in Asia. That was aptly displayed at the recent Defence Services Asia (DSA) expo in Malaysia, where 850 companies from 45 countries participated in the four-day event, showing the variety of arsenal from handguns to jetfighters. The reason for such a display boils down to what drives the industry spending. And it's no surprise much of that is taking place in Asia.

A report by IHS Jane's, a defence industry publication, has forecast China's military spending will outstrip the combined total of Nato's top eight members Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Canada, Spain and Poland excluding the United States by 2015. Furthermore, growth in spending is taking off not just in China but also in South-East Asia, which has spurred its spending.

A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows that the region increased its defence spending by 13.5% last year, to US$24.5billion. The figure is estimated to skyrocket to US$40billion by 2016, with the report noting that Malaysia's defence spending has also risen. As observers have noted, Asia will outspend Europe this year. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says in the think tank's “The Military Balance 2012” annual report that China's spending has fuelled other growing Asian states into pouring more funds into their military and defence.

According to the IISS, Asia, excluding Australia and New Zealand, spent US$262billion on defence in 2011 with China alone accounting for US$89billion compared with Nato's European members, which spent about US$270billion. Asian countries increased their defence budget by more than 3% in real terms last year, the IISS said. China increased its share of total military expenditure on weapons in the region to more than 30%.

Western analysts point to China's plans for naval "force projection" to defend its growing economic interests in Africa and elsewhere, and secure maritime lanes of communication. More immediately significant is China's development of anti-satellite capacities, anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and cyber-warfare capabilities. "Managing tensions in the South China Sea will be an increasing challenge," said the IISS report.

Defence analysts also pointed to potential tensions between the US and China being aggravated by Beijing refusing to agree to confidence-building measures along the lines of those between the US and the Soviet Union during the cold war. "China does not want to give a seatbelt to the US," one defence analyst said. Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam are all investing in improving air and naval capacities, as are India, Japan and South Korea. India, for instance, plans to boost maritime capacities with submarines and aircraft carriers, said the IISS.

In Europe, defence budgets remain under pressure and cuts to equipment programmes continue. Between 2008 and 2010 there were reductions in defence spending in at least 16 European Nato member states. In a significant proportion of these, cuts in real terms exceeded 10%. According to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Singapore is now the fifth-largest arms importer in the world, bested only by some obvious behemoths—China, India and Pakistan—plus South Korea. Singapore accounts for 4% of the world’s total spending on arms imports. Its

defence spending per head beats every country bar America, Israel and Kuwait. This year $9.7 billion, or 24% of the national budget, will go on defence.

These are striking figures, but then Singapore has been one of the bigger spenders in the region since its rancorous split from Malaysia in 1965. The difference now is that almost every country in South-East Asia has embarked on a similar build-up, making it one of the fastest-growing regions for defence spending in the world. Military analysts at IHS Jane’s say that South-East Asian countries together increased defence spending by 13.5% last year, to $24.5 billion. The figure is projected to rise to $40 billion by 2016. According to SIPRI, arms deliveries to Malaysia jumped eightfold in 2005-09, compared with the previous five years. Indonesia’s spending grew by 84% in that period.

Indonesia is spending $8 billion this year on defence—still rather modest for a country of 240m, but up sharply from $2.6 billion in 2006. Much is going on new hardware and spare parts. The country has acquired Russian and American warplanes, including F-16 fighters, vessels for its navy, and spare parts for its C-130 transport planes. In January Indonesia signed a $1.1 billion deal for three German-made diesel-electric submarines, and lawmakers are debating whether to buy 100 Leopard tanks from the Netherlands.

Domestic political calculations are another factor behind the region’s defence splurge. Terence Lee at the National University of Singapore argues that in countries where the armed forces have meddled in politics, civilian politicians use larger defence budgets to buy political compliance from the military—Thailand is a case in point. Singapore, on the other hand, has a different motivation. It is the only country in the region building its own high-tech arms industry. Singapore has long sold weapons to other developing countries, but has recently been winning its first large orders from Western armies too. ST Engineering, the only South-East Asian firm in SIPRI’s top 100

defence manufacturers, has sold over 100 Bronco (or Warthog) armoured troop carriers to the British, for use in Afghanistan.

For all that, strategic concerns do count for something. For example, the sea lanes leading to the Strait of Malacca are the lifeblood of Singapore’s prosperity. And over the past decade, some may have worried that America was distracted by war elsewhere. So the growth of a Chinese blue-water navy has implications.

Strategic concerns also loom large for any country with a territorial claim to the disputed South China Sea (see article), where China’s assertive stance has provoked a surge of spending by, for instance, Vietnam. The country recently ordered six Kilo-class submarines from Russia. Vietnam is also buying seven or so new frigates and corvettes over the next decade. In the Philippines the government of President Benigno Aquino almost doubled the defence budget last year, to $2.4 billion.

Meanwhile, Russia’s deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin faces a formidable challenge of modernising Russia’s military-industrial complex. He should not be deterred in this vital national mission by alarmists and doubters, says Aleksey Volodin. The strategy for the development of the military-technical field will consist of two main areas: the development of Russia's own production capacity and the creation of joint ventures for the production of military equipment.

Also, Japan is building its military muscle to play a bigger role in Asia and the rest of the world, and it is making its military might more visible. Japan changed its defense policy last December to allow Japanese companies to export weapons and collaborate with countries other than its main ally, the US. During British Prime Minister David Cameron's visit to Tokyo last week, it inked a deal with Britain on jointly developing and building defense equipment. It was Japan's first weapons-building covenant with a country other than the United States since the World War II. Japan's desire to build

up its military strength has been fueled by the pivoting of the US' strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region.

Although Japan's Constitution forbids offensive military operations, Japan has quietly built one of the most capable armed forces in the world. It has more than 250,000 men and women in uniform and its annual defense budget is about $56 billion, among the six largest in the world. Japan is also extending its military presence overseas and focusing on the operational flexibility of its forces.

Sources:Richard Norton-Taylor/guardian.co.uk; By CHOONG EN HAN, han@thestar.com.my; Aleksey Volodin, Military Review Source: ITAR-TASS; Cai Hong (China Daily)

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 7:33 PM No comments:

Thursday, April 19, 2012

India should strengthen IBSA within BRICS

In light of the slowdown in the US, EU and Japan, some 40-odd emerging markets led by BRICS is driving global economic growth today. The acronym BRIC, as originally coined by Jim O’Neil of Goldman Sachs ten years ago was meant to identify fast growing

economies which could offer attractive returns to foreign investors. But with the addition of South Africa in 2010, the ambition of this politically disparate group has grown manifold. My question is simple: what’s in it for India?

For starters, let’s look at the aspirations of this bloc and its chief frontrunner—China. China is pushing the BRICS promise aggressively and not without reason. Having outpaced Japan as the second-largest economy in the world with a GDP of $5.9 trillion and the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves of $3.3 trillion, China seeks to establish itself as a challenger to US supremacy, have a greater say in the World Bank and the IMF and establish renminbi as a reserve currency.

Jim O’Neil has fervently questioned the inclusion of South Africa in this bloc. South Africa has a growth rate of just 2.5-3 per cent compared to the average 6-10 per cent of China and India. Nigeria was a more suitable candidate for this position, says Jim O’Neil or other emerging markets like Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey. But South Africa was invited in this bloc at the insistence of China as it is a gateway to the African market for Chinese manufactured products and its rich energy resources.

The fourth BRICS summit in Delhi recently has shown that the world’s fastest growing economies can also cooperate on wide ranging issues. For one, they want the emerging markets to have a greater say in the running of the World Bank and the IMF. There is also talk about putting up a consensus candidate from the emerging markets to head these two institutions for long dominated by the US and EU.

Second, the BRICS summit in New Delhi also stressed the need to set up a South-South development Bank on the lines of the World Bank to finance infrastructure projects in emerging markets. Consensus was also reached on intra-BRICS trade in local currencies to cut down

on tariff costs. BRICS also put up a common front with regards to the violence in Syria and its opposition to the US-led sanctions against Iran for its nuclear programme. But there were no political or strategic decisions.

Can there be? Russia is an authoritarian communist regime, China is a single party communist state eschewing elections, while India, Brasil and South Africa are thriving democracies. The BRICS promise is being pushed aggressively by China because it wants to enlarge the scope of the not-so-effective Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, its bid to establish multi-polarity in the world and project itself as the sole challenger to US supremacy.

Both US and India, the world’s oldest and the world’s largest democracies are wary of China’s growing economic clout and its secretive weaponisation programme. Both want to contain China which has traditionally been an expansionist power. India would do well to stand solidly behind the US initiative of concentric triangle comprising the US, Japan, India and Australia to form a security counter bloc against China.

Should India play game with China? It could clearly be risky and detrimental to India’s interests. India has a long standing border dispute with China and a lost 1962 war, for long China has instigated Pakistan and Bangladesh against India and has encouraged Maoist terror on Indian soil, and occupies large parts of J&K. In this light, IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) partnerships of thriving democracies should not be dismissed but India should work harder on strengthening IBSA within the so-called BRICS bloc.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 9:35 AM No comments:

Friday, January 27, 2012

Gandhi Family: Conscience Keepers and Custodians of the Congress Party

The Indian National Congress (INC) Party is often referred to as the Grand Old Dame of Indian politics. Despite being in power for the larger period since the independence of India, the party has deliberately maintained a certain amount of somberness. The party’s chief characteristic is that it eschews a public show of pomp and splendour, something which is reflected in the way its leaders carry themselves—with a certain amount of low keyness. You will never find a Congressman mouthing loud about his accomplishments or being extremely extravagant about his tastes in public. Congress leaders are measured in their speech, they mind their manners and are careful about the way they conduct themselves in public. This is an innate quality among the Congress leaders which is well ingrained through rigorous party discipline and by example of its top leadership. Detractors say Congress leaders are carefull not to outshine the Hon’bl Gandhi family and that they give the Gandhi family members a high degree of reverence, both in public and in private. I ask why not?

The Gandhi family has been associated with Indian politics for well over 150 years. Among the party’s various illustrious leaders, it is one of the chief nay the prime families that have built the present day Congress party. Erstwhile scions of the Gandhi family have been prime ministers of India and have served the country with dedication and commitment. There have been charges by the opposition of high handedness, favouritism and wrongdoing against the family but this charge is not well placed. For a family which is the chief holder of political power in the country, the family members when both in

power or without have used their power carefully and responsibly. By the way the Gandhi family members conduct themselves in public, it can safely be ascertained that their mooring are firmly placed in reality and that they don’t have any misconceptions about the fact that power in a democracy is by contract and not perpetual. Often times, the Gandhi family has demonstrated leadership and responsibility in the party when direction within the party was missing. Whenever there is a void within the party the Gandhi family members have always stepped in to fill the gap. What comes out is that they are not so much interested in holding office of power but they are more interested in serving the country and the public. Power has often been thrust upon the family members and they have never pursued it blatantly. To shoulder such heavy responsibilities in the world’s largest democracy is no mean task.

The present arrangement within the UPA of having two centres of responsibility according to me is a brilliant tactical solution to governance in complex times. Under the Hon’bl Gandhi family’s guidance, the political aspect of running a coalition is working truly well. The Gandhi family’s political clout within the country has well managed to keep the coalition intact. On the other hand, Hon’bl Dr Manmohan Singh’s erudite and academic background has given the country one of India’s most well qualified prime ministers. Despite protests over inflation and food price rise, Dr Manmohan Singh is doing an excellent job. However I do feel that the path towards liberalization should be carefully tread upon. I can say that life was definitely much better for the common man in the sixties, seventies and eighties. The rupee had considerable purchasing power, and while salaries were nominal, goods were very affordable. Liberalisation has to be managed well as it is being increasingly felt that liberalization is benefiting the top 5 percent of society only and has infact heightened the income disparity between the haves and have nots. Hon’bl Smt Sonia Gandhi, as chairperson of the UPA and President of the Indian National Congress, is managing the political aspects of the coalition with élan and dexterity. Dr Manmohan Singh,

as the prime minister of India is doing a laudable job heading the government. Steps initiated by Hon’bl Dr Singh to make the government responsive, accountable and transparent are slowly and surely bearing fruit. It needs to be borne in mind that changes in the government take years and decades to fructify.

Jealous and sniggering detractors, often ridicule and mock at the present arrangement within the Congress and the UPA. They say uncharitable things about both Dr Manmohan Singh and Smt Sonia Gandhi. Many unpleasant rumours regarding the Congress and their leaders are doing the rounds within the country. But rumours are not meant to be believed. You cannot believe what a disgruntled person says. It could be out of spite or hatred. The public must use its own discrimination and discerning attitude in assessing what is the truth and what is a blatant lie. Allegations and accusations against the Congress party run rife. But to wield power and to wield it with responsibility is a remarkable quality of the party. Opposition parties when they have been in power have shown their true colours. They cannot claim a holier than thou attitude. Corruption scams when the opposition was in power run into several dozens. Harassment of political adversaries or challengers when the Opposition was in power are numerous and countless. The opposition has not proved that it can wield power with responsibility.

Hon’bl Smt Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origins and her Italian background have irked a large section of Indians and certain opposition parties. But despite her Italian background, Smt Sonia Gandhi has done more for India-her adopted country, than many so called patriotic Indian women. Originally she did not at all wanted to be in the muck which is Indian politics yet under public demand she chose to serve India. Fact is there is no Indian women who can match her stature. So what is the opposition complaining about. Hon’bl Shri Rahul Gandhi has shown remarkable maturity in steering himself clear of demands within the party and the country to don the mantle of the prime minister. It shows he has his feet firmly on the ground. He has

proved to be a brilliant campaigner and orator and his efforts to democratise the party is worthy of fulsome praise. Shri Rahul Gandhi seems to be making the right moves and sounds by his visits to India’s hinterland and understanding the problems of the country. His efforts to be in touch with India’s poor and downtrodden by extensively crisscrossing the country comes deep from the heart and is certainly not a show for public consumption.

Detractors of the Gandhi family and the Opposition very often complain that Congressmen are fiercely loyal to the Gandhi family. And why not? Afterall, the Gandhi family is the conscience keepers and the custodian of the Congress party.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 4:11 AM No comments: Labels: gandhi family, INC

Why Are Some Polities More Prone To International Conflict Than Others

Game Theory And Political EconomyJames Russell and Quincy Wright suggested in the American Political Science Review in 1933 that the danger of conflict could be diminished by looking within states to discern what contributes to the risk of war. Revolutions in game theory technology and political economy modeling are helping to advance those goals. The combination of non-cooperative game theory as an analytic tool and the assumptions of political economy models about leaders’ domestic interests and incentives offer a different explanation of international relations from that suggested by realist theories and

other state-centric viewpoints. Together with more macro-level theorizing we gain insights into what makes some polities more prone to international conflict than others. By adding the micro-level, game theoretic investigation of domestic factors to the analytic repertoire we have now supplemented the aspects of received wisdom that are consistent with the record of history with explanations for puzzling facts about conflict that no longer seem anomalous. Students of international relations are concerned with the description, prediction, and control of the external behavior of states, particularly of their more violent types of behavior such as intervention, hostilities, and war. It is clear that mere description of a diplomatic or military event has little meaning by itself and that such an event can neither be predicted nor controlled unless account is taken of the circumstances which preceded it within each of the states involved.—–James T. Russell and QuincyWright, “National Attitudes on the Far Eastern Controversy” (1933, 555).

Russell and Wright’s (1933) view lay dormant for most students of international conflict until well after the empirical demonstration by Babst (1964) that democracies rarely, if ever, fight wars with each other. That insight, originally articulated by Immanuel Kant in 1795, slowly percolated through the security studies community, eventually leading to a proliferation of theories and empirical studies that look within states to sort out why different types of regimes behave differently when it comes to decisions about war and peace. No other aspect of conflict studies since the advent of nuclear deterrence theory has had as large an impact on American foreign policy as the theorizing and empirical assessments of the democratic peace. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush embraced the central insight from this literature, with Bush making the promotion of democracy a theme of his foreign policy. Therefore, understanding the shift in research strategies that led to the insights of the democratic peace is important from both a theoretical and a practical standpoint.

Political economy was turned to as one means to try to overcome the limitations of realist approaches. It is not, of course, the only such alternative. Numerous other theoretical perspectives were also stimulated by the perception that realism faced limits on its ability to explain remaining puzzles concerning international onflict. Neo-liberalism, gender studies, constructivism, and computational models are among the alternative and sometimes complementary approaches explored as means to solve conundrums regarding war and peace. Like some of the alternative approaches, political economy models—–the focus here—–enjoy a history of success in other aspects of social inquiry. These include elucidating the democratic peace; clarifying issues in American and comparative politics, at least since the origins of the “Rochester” school in the 1960s; and providing micro-foundations for research in economics and politics about growth, the resource curse, trade, and banking policy. Political economy models, like some other modeling, also benefited from improvements in game theory that facilitated the construction of more sophisticated models than was possible prior to the late 1970s, as well as from the stimulus provided by the recognition that domestic factors contributed significantly to the demise of the USSR and the end of the cold war.

The political economy perspective treats leaders, not states, as the object of study. In doing so, it argues that relations among nations are produced by the normal pulls and tugs of domestic affairs, taking into account the domestic and international constraints under which leaders in contending states operate. That this is a significant conceptual departure from state-centric, realist accounts is exemplified by the inability of such languages as English, French, Chinese, Urdu, and perhaps all others to describe international relations without invoking the nation as the key unit of analysis. Political economy models and empirical assessments evaluate policy choices as parts of equilibrium behavior induced by domestic institutions. They conceive of the choice of foreign policy interactions

as incentive-compatible with the motives of national leaders. These leaders’ motivations may not be—–and often are not—–compatible with their nation’s interest.

Domestic institutional structures (such as the competitiveness of leadership selection or the extent of government accountability and transparency) help shape the interplay of leaders, elites, and ordinary citizens, resulting in policies that create the contours of the international environment—–contours that in realist approaches are taken as given rather than as factors to be explained. By drawing attention to leaders, recent scholarship illuminates empirical regularities not previously discerned. Gaubatz (1991), Fordham (1998a, 1998b), and Smith (2004), for instance, show that war-timing by democratic leaders depends on the election cycle, electoral rules, and domestic political circumstances. Fearon (1994) and Smith (1996) suggest that democratic leaders are more constrained than autocrats to carry out the threats they make because of domestic political audience costs. Schultz (1998, 2001) shows that the existence of a domestic political opposition limits democratic foreign policy adventurism in ways not experienced by non-democrats. Bueno de Mesquita et al. (1999, 2003) develop a “selectorate” theory of politics, showing how variations in the size of a polity’s political institutions, that is, its selectorate and its winning coalition, help explain the empirical regularities that make up the democratic peace. Bueno de Mesquita and Downs (2006) build on the selectorate account to explain the willingness of democratic military interveners to restrict the spread of democracy even when these interveners declare that they are motivated to promote democratic reform elsewhere.

Each of these studies shares a conviction that policy decisions are strategic, taking into account expected responses by foreign and domestic adversaries and supporters, and so use non-cooperative game theory as their foundational analytic structure. Many then go on to use statistical and case study methods to probe the generality

and the verisimilitude of their proposed explanations of international conflict. These studies also suggest critical empirical tests to help sort out the explanatory power of alternative perspectives. A game-theoretic focus on strategic interaction that assumes that states are rational unitary actors shows that war, being costly, is always ex post inefficient (Fearon 1995). Political economy, game-theoretic models agree but add that war, although ex post ineffi-cient in terms of citizen welfare, can be beneficial for leaders (Chiozza and Goemans 2004). Just consider Margaret Thatcher’s poor prospects of reelection as Britain’s prime minister before the Falklands/Malvinas War. Her popularity soared following the UK’s victory, which may have been instrumental to her reelection in 1983. We can only conjecture on what the electoral consequences would have been for Thatcher had she—cost-effectively—bought off Argentina’s generals and the Falklands’ shepherds rather than fight to defend Britain’s territorial claims.

The political economy approach’s microfoundations separate the interests of leaders from those of the broader populace, or the national interest. This may be its most significant evolutionary step beyond realism’s focus on the state as a unitary entity. As many have noted, the policies that leaders adopt to enhance their hold on power often make their subjects worse off. The selectorate consists of those who have at least a nominal say in choosing leaders and are eligible to become members of a winning coalition. The winning coalition is the subset of the selectorate without whose support an incumbent cannot be sustained in office.

Consider, for instance, the personally beneficial and nationally debilitating actions of North Korea’s Kim Jong-il, Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, or the Philippine leader Ferdinand Marcos. Each managed to retain his position of national leadership for many more years—–often decades longer—–than democratic counterparts can reasonably aspire to, and yet each contributed to the impoverishment of his nation’s ordinary citizens even as he and

his inner circle of cronies ensured their own wealth. In such self-aggrandizing circumstances it is difficult to square their international interactions with a state-centric approach’s attentiveness to the “national interest”. Yet such policies are understandable when one expands upon earlier macro-level theories by adding within-state micro-foundations. When domestic institutions constrain a leader to require a broad base of support—–as is true in most democracies—–then private rewards are an inefficient way to retain power. Democratic leaders would have to spread these rewards across so many people that each would receive too little for the benefits to influence their loyalty to the incumbent. In such a situation, it is more efficient for leaders to rely on public goods as their best means to retain office. When political institutions compel a leader to depend on many supporters, so that a bundle of public goods is the reward for retaining the incumbent, the institutions of governance induce weak loyalty to the incumbent. After all, everyone benefits from public goods, whether they support the incumbent or not.

Conversely, when a leader needs backing from only a few people to stay in power, the few are expected to be loyal both because they are well rewarded with private benefits and because they face a high risk of losing those privileges if a challenger topples the incumbent regime. Thus it is that resource allocations—–including provisions for national defense—–are induced by domestic political institutions rather than by international compulsions, culture, or the luck of the draw in leaders.

Extracts from the article “Game Theory, Political Economy, and the Evolving Study of War and Peace” published in the American Political Science Review, November 2006 by BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA associated with the New York University, Hoover Institution and Stanford University.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 3:53 AM No comments: Labels: game theory, political economy

SEZs: Handle With Care To Power Growth

SEZs: Handle With Care To Power GrowthSince early childhood, I have always been a dreamer at heart. In 1978, during a train ride from Bombay to Jabalpur enroute to Mandla, my maternal hometown, I imagined what it would be like having a 100km by 10km industrial corridor between Pipariya and Jabalpur on the lines of the famous Ruhr Valley of Germany. Ruhr valley is famous for its industrial history, originally based on coal mining and steel production and now benefiting from its industrial mix of energy production, environmental technologies and modern service industries. Ecological and economical problems, mainly the traumatic coal crisis in the 1960s, destroyed confidence and optimism. Most coal mines in the Ruhr Valley were shut down and the number of jobs was halved. Unemployment and social unrest were just some of the more pressing problems.

In the past decades considerable effort has lead to modernization and diversification of the economic base at the Ruhr. Nowadays, the 'Ruhrpott' is once more a thriving region and an enormous urban area. Bochum, Dortmund, Duisburg and Essen form an inter-connecting metropolis. The old industrial ruins have been converted into cultural venues. Ancient mine 'Zeche Zollverein' and can-like 'Gasometer Oberhausen' are just some of the highlights of the modern Ruhr Valley area.

One of the things Germany has done right in the Ruhr is to invest heavily in higher education and research. Until 1965, the Ruhr had no universities. Now it boasts five universities and seven advanced

schools of applied sciences. In addition, 13 cutting-edge research institutes have sprung up in the Ruhr since the early 1990s, including Frauenhofer and Max-Planck, thanks to $110 million a year in federal and state funding. State and local governments also are channeling funds into cleaning up the smokestack industry graveyards and seeding new technology parks with startups in fields such as medical technology, computer services, biotech, renewable energy, e-logistics, and environmental technology. Bochum's growing talent pool drew Finnish mobile phone maker Nokia to locate its only German factory nearby, creating 2,300 jobs.

India’s new SEZs are precisely aimed at creating this employment and exports. Some of them are already making news, like Dahej. The Special Economic Zone (SEZ) at Dahej has earned a pride of place among the top 25 best global economic zones, as per a global survey of 700-odd ‘free economic zones of the future' by ‘Foreign Direct Investment bimonthly magazine published by the Financial Times Group. The multi-product SEZ at Dahej on a fast trajectory growth for the last five years is ranked 23rd and is the only one from India. Situated on the coast of Gulf of Cambay, Dahej SEZ is spread over 1,700 hectares having attracted investment of nearly Rs.20,000-crore and providing employment to 22,000. When fully functional, Dahej PCPIR, falling on the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC), is likely to touch export target of Rs.62,000-crore.

The even greater success story that has been reported is the doubling and more of exports from the new special economic zones. Exports from 111 such zones totalled $49 billion in 2009-10, up 123 per cent from the $22 billion earned in the previous year. Total exports last year, at $176 billion, were about 5 per cent lower than in the previous year. If you take out the SEZ numbers for the two years, then non-SEZ exports fell from $163 billion to $127 billion — a sharp drop of 22 per cent. Continuation of tax exemptions for SEZ units would undermine the effectiveness of the new direct tax laws. Defenders of the SEZ scheme, on the other hand, point out that the

cost of preventing the exports sector from a virtual collapse in 2009-10 was a paltry Rs 5,200 crore by way of income-tax revenues, and Rs 3,200 crore of indirect tax revenues, which is what the government lost on account of the tax concessions given to SEZ units.

In view of this, the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) recommended an overhaul of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Act 2005 saying it has detected gross violations of duty and tax concessions causing it to suffer a revenue loss of Rs 1,75,000 crore to date. Broadly, the CBEC report has sought the removal of numerous exemptions, drawbacks and concessions that have turned SEZs into tax-avoidance conduits for importers and exporters without any genuine business to back them. The CBEC’s revenue loss estimate Rs 1,75,000 crore has been derived from concessions extended for capital goods and raw material procured by functioning SEZs developers and those that have been approved and are being set up (SEZs in the process of starting operations have to provide import estimates). The CBEC had estimated an overall revenue loss of Rs 3,50,000 crore involved in the creation of all SEZs since 2006, when the Act was passed.

The basic motive behind developing a special economic zone like SEZ in India or SEZ in China, primarily in the developing countries is to attract mass foreign investments in the country. India Real Estate Investments have attracted huge foreign funds and thus the special economic zones in India have increased by and large. The SEZ norms and rules vary from country to country and region to region. SEZ land involved also decides the SEZ policy for the SEZ approvals. The SEZ act 2005 announced the SEZ policy in India for setting up of any special economic zone in India. This special economic zone act 2005 set the guidelines and procedures for acquisition of SEZ land and SEZ development following the proper SEZ laws. Further amendments were made through SEZ Act 2006 and SEZ policy 2007.

The SEZ history dates back to 1965 when the first export processing

zone was set up in Kandla, Maharashtra. That was the instigation of SEZ's in India. The SEZ Act in 2005 established India Special Economic Zones formally. SEZ notification as mentioned in the SEZ Act includes:* To augment additional economic activity by attracting foreign direct investments* To promote exports of goods and services* To promote investment from domestic and foreign sources* To create more employment opportunities* To develop infrastructure facilities of global standards

SEZ India Benefits* SEZ's offer economic progress to the area, the local inhabitants and the country as a whole* Exemption from payment of stamp duty and registration fees on the lease/license of plots to the SEZ developer.* External commercial borrowings of upto 500 million USD a year without any restriction of maturity to the SEZ developers.

SEZ DisadvantagesSpecial economic zones and the SEZ projects have instigated certain SEZ controversy and a SEZ debate regarding the SEZ Disadvantages:* Revenue losses due to various tax exemptions and tax benefits awarded to the India special economic zones.* Most Real Estate Developers In India are interested in setting up a SEZ to cash in the india real estate bubble by acquiring SEZ land at cheap rates and creating a land bank for themselves

Presently around 14 major special economic zones are functional in India:* Santa Cruz, Mumbai, Maharashtra* Cochin, Kerala* Kandla And Surat in Gujarat* Chennai, Tamil Nadu* Vishakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh* Falta And Salt Lake in West Bengal

* Noida, Greater Noida in Uttar Pradesh* Indore, Madhya Pradesh* Jaipur, Rajasthan

Owing to the mass attraction of SEZ's in terms of the SEZ benefits or advantages, major Indian conglomerates are jumping into the SEZ development bandwagon. Some of the names that deserve mention here are Mahindra & Mahindra with Mahindra World City in Chennai and Reliance Industries along with Haryana Government and coming up Special Economic Zones by leading real estate builders and developers in India like Unitech India and DLF. The newer areas attracting SEZ development are Navi Mumbai, Manesar, Gurgaon, Noida, Indore, Dehradun, Kanpur, Kochi, Nandigram, Surat, Nagpur, surrounding areas of Pune, Goa, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Jaipur, and Karnataka.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 3:47 AM No comments: Labels: SEZs

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Republican Mitt Romney most likely to be next US President

Republican Mitt Romney most likely to be next US PresidentMitt Romney goes into Iowa Caucus stronger than ever, looking more presidential. Mitt Romney knows how to find common ground with others, compromise and get his programmes through. Romney goes into Iowa leading the polls. The last poll, on the eve of Iowa, shows

Romney with 24% of likely caucus goers. Ron Paul, the libertarian Texan has 22% and making a surprise showing as the new Conservative Evangelical wing's choice is former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum with 15%. This is a year all about beating Obama. Republicans and many independents (who have joined the Tea Party in droves) are scared of another four years of Obama. Four years as a lame duck, devil may care, I plan to leave America in my image as an EU satellite state, with massive social change, entitlement spending, socialised medicine, whether they want-it-or-not.Republicans are slowly realising that and will probably come around quicker than expected. If Romney wins Iowa, and then backs that up with a win in New Hampshire --where he is a local boy and stands at 40% in some polls, that will give him a strong out-of-the-gate showing. Even if he comes in second or third in Iowa, a win in New Hampshire will still give him a strong start. However, they state, 'we felt compelled to make an endorsement in light of a counter-productive effort to stop Mitt Romney among some disparate elements on the right--often based on a religious intolerance of Mr. Romney's Mormon faith. We also think the notion that the Tea Party will support a 3rd party candidate after Mitt Romney becomes the Republican nominee, a notion most often advanced by the mainstream media, must be discredited.' They believe that the 'only way to defeat President Obama, whose policies are an anathema to conservatism and the Tea Party Movement, is to rally around his strongest opponent - Mitt Romney.' The Republican operatives who created Tea Party Express, the leading political action committee of the tea party movement, recently launched a separate PAC called the Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama. By creating the independent group, the organizers can raise more money and be a stronger force in the upcoming presidential race. The new group has the ambitious goal of organizing 1 million people against the president through television ads, online petitions and grass-roots events. More than 46,000 people have signed the group’s online petition “to defeat Barack

Obama” since January. “We want to be the aggressive, independent group that goes after him and stands up to the Obama campaign,” said Ryan Gill, the PAC’s vice president.Romney views India as potentially profitable for U.S. marketing and investment, due to its flourishing economy and huge population. Romney said in 2005 that although outsourcing to countries like India is a problem, “we'll see new opportunities created selling products there. We'll have a net increase in economic activity, just as we did with free trade.”Mitt Romney is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, members of which are commonly known as Mormons or LDS (Latter-day Saint). In addition to missionary work in France in the 1960s under the tutelage of Wesley L. Pipes, Romney has served as a bishop, and has also been a stake president in his church. In accordance with LDS doctrine, as bishops and stake presidents are lay positions in his church, Romney received no compensation or money for his years of service in those positions. Also in accordance to his religious beliefs, Romney abstains from alcohol and smoking. Romney has expressed his faith in Jesus Christ as his "Lord and Savior" openly to evangelical Christian groups. He has received support from evangelical Christians.Mitt Romney's delivered his "Faith in America" speech on December 6, 2007. Romney's campaign billed the speech as extolling American freedom of worship while helping to satisfy public curiosity about how Romney's strain of religious devotion would inform presidential governance. Romney's speech gave primacy to the American Constitutional right of religious liberty, which produces cultural diversity and vibrancy of dialog. He called for public acknowledgments of God such as within Holidays religious displays. Romney said, "Freedom requires religion just as religion requires freedom." He cited a religious nature to historic abolitionists' campaigns, the campaign for American Civil Rights, and the contemporary campaign for the Right to Life. Romney advocated maintenance of a separation of Church and State, stating that he, as president, would decline directives from churches' hierarchies,

including that of the LDS church.Romney said while there are those who would prefer he indicated he holds his LDS faith merely as a tradition, actually he believes in his faith and tries to live according to its teachings, and while sacraments and confession of Romney's "church's beliefs about Christ may not all be the same as those of other faiths," he still holds Christ "the Son of God and Savior of mankind." Romney declined to address further the specifics of his Mormonism, implying that any compulsion to do so would counter the Constitutional prohibition of a religion test for political office. The similarities between Hinduism and Mormonism are less apparent, being on the level of abstract theology and worldview, but are all the more remarkable. For example, the Hindu idea of karma and reincarnation is similar to Mormonism, with its doctrine of pre-existence and eternal progression. In both cases you have lived a previous life, and your station in this life depends on how good you were in the previous life. Thus, Mormons could traditionally look upon dark skin as a sign of pre-life sinfulness. Also in both cases, this life is not the end-all, and does not result in a permanent judgment. Mormons teach that you will have continual future chances to get close to God, just as Hindus believe that you will have many future lives to pursue your oneness with Brahman.Mormonism and Hinduism also share a materialistic view of the spiritual realm. In Mormonism, it is based on the idea of a material God, a God who has a physical body. If God is a material being, the question then arises, who created the material, how did the material get here if God himself is material? The implication is that the material already existed. This is just like Hinduism, which says plainly that the universe is eternal and uncreated. Mormonism also teaches that in your future lives, you yourself can become a god. This is again similar to Hinduism, which also says that in your future lives, you can become a god.Like Hinduism, Mormonism is a make-it-up-as-you-go religion, which can change to fit whatever new circumstances it finds itself in. Hinduism can do this because it lacks any foundational, authoritative

teacher or theology, and brazenly absorbs any religious challenge it faces (such as proclaiming the Buddha to be an incarnation of Vishnu, or that Jesus learned his miracles from the gurus of India).

India’s nuclear triad to counter first-strike attackIndia will take a big step towards achieving a credible nuclear weapon triad in February when its first indigenous nuclear submarine INS Arihant begins sea trials off Visakhapatnam. The "sea-acceptance trials'' (SATS) of INS Arihant are slated to begin "towards end-February'' after the completion of its ongoing harbour-acceptance trials (HATS). With INS Arihant's induction, India for the first time will brandish the most effective third leg of the nuclear triad - the ability to fire nukes from land, air and sea. The first two legs revolve around the Agni family of ballistic missiles and fighters like Sukhoi-30MKIs and Mirage-2000s jury-rigged to deliver nuclear warheads. Only the Big-5 has nuclear triads till now, with a total of over 140 nuclear-powered submarines. America leads the pack with 71, followed by Russia with about 40, while China, the UK and France have around 10-12 each. A nuclear triad refers to a nuclear arsenal which consists of three components, traditionally strategic bombers, ICBMs and SLBMs. The purpose of having a three-branched nuclear capability is to significantly reduce the possibility that an enemy could destroy all of a nation's nuclear forces in a first-strike attack; this, in turn, ensures a credible threat of a second strike, and thus increases a nation's nuclear deterrence. While traditional nuclear strategy holds that a nuclear triad provides the best level of deterrence from attack, in reality, most nuclear powers do not have the military budget to

sustain a full triad. Only the United States and Russia have maintained nuclear triads for most of the nuclear age. Both the US and the Soviet Union composed their triads along the same lines, including the following components: Bomber aircraft capable of delivering nuclear bombs (carrier-based or land-based; armed with bombs or missiles); Land-based missiles (MRBMs or ICBMs) and Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The triad also gives the commander the possibility to use different types of weapons for the appropriate strike.ICBMs allow for a long-range strike launched from a controlled or friendly environment. If launched from a fixed position, such as a missile silo, they are vulnerable to a first strike, though their interception once aloft is substantially difficult, Some ICBMs are either rail or road mobile. SLBMs, launched from submarines, allow for a greater chance of survival from a first strike, giving the commander a second-strike capability. Some long-range submarine-launched cruise missiles are counted towards triad status, this was the first type of submarine-launched strategic second-strike nuclear weapon before ballistic missile submarines became available. Strategic bombers have greater flexibility in their deployment and weaponry. They can serve as both a first- and second-strike weapon.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 12:08 AM No comments: Labels: mitt romney, nuclear triad

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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Next Two Years Will Be Crucial For India's Foreign/Intelligence Departments

The next two years are crucial for India in terms of foreign policy and intelligence operations. Why? Because in the next 1-2 years there will be a change in leadership starting with India itself, US, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan and some 2-3 more countries. So should India’s intelligence agencies be caught with its pants down. No! India should in earnest start collecting data and information on the likes and dislikes, policies, stance, national and world view of the new aspirants and the parties they represent in the respective countries. India, starting today, should put its foreign office and external intelligence agencies on high alert and should direct them to gather all possible information---personal, professional, social, public---on the candidates and the parties which are likely to come into power in these countries. This information gathered will be useful for India to articulate its stand and policies when the time is ripe.

CAN THERE BE AN ASIAN CENTURY? There has been talk that the 21st century will be Asia's, just as the 20thcentury was America's and the 19th century was Britain's. The 20th century was America’s not by default or accident but by design because it willfully crafted a world strategy for global dominance by building crucial alliances and associations. So we saw the formation of NATO, the Asia-Pacific alliance, and so on. But does Asia have such alliances in place? Not by the looks of it. The only Asian body in operation is the Asian Development Bank. There have been regional associations that have flourished but nothing on a pan-Asian level. Is it necessary? I cant say, because Asian countries are ideologically diverse. In this context,

India should strengthen the SAARC, BIMSTEC, Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation, etc. We should seek to have a influence and be able to shape events in a radius of 4000-5000 kms from our shoreline and land borders.

WELL THOUGHT-OUT REFORMS NECESSARY: The economic reforms of 1991 have definitely helped many people in India become wealthy. However, the second wave of economic reforms should be designed to bring riches to the poor, give a boost to MSMEs and generate large-scale employment, build a strong middle and lower middle class, improving the human development indices levels and bringing more people out of the poverty index. Reforms are badly needed in the labour sector, the administrative sector, the police sector and policies must be made attractive to draw FII and foreign investments. Goods and Services Tax and pension reforms should also be implemented at the earliest. What happened to SEZs? No one is hearing about them. The setting up of SEZs and their becoming operational and functional must be speeded up to boost manufacturing in the country. In the manufacturing sector, a focus should be on small and medium sized enterprises.

DATA, INFORMATION & KNOWLEDGE CENTRE: India’s politicians are hopelessly and inadequately informed. Parliamentarians, legislators and councilors are not getting the right information and advice to implement far reaching changes. Legislators are politicians in India who have scant regard for learning and knowledge. But we should always remember that the 21st century is a data, knowledge and information age. Our legislators are woefully ill equipped to handling, storing, processing and analyzing data, information and knowledge. Each councilor, legislator, and parliamentarian at the municipal, state and national level must have an office of 6-7 experts on economy, business, industry, education, health, security at the municipal, state and national level and this team should give our legislators sound advice which can help them frame policies and take the necessary action for the welfare and good of their respective municipalities,

state, district or the nation. Officers of the Indian Information Services along with experts from the private, public and civic life should man these services.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 6:40 PM 1 comment:

Romney's Win Could Spark Another Round of Cold War

Undoubtedly, the highlight of the fortnight is the American Presidential elections. What does it mean for India and the world? While both Obama and Romney are affable and good gentlemen, there is a not so subtle difference in their policies and stances. Lets look at defense. Obama wants a cut in defense spending called sequestration to the tune of $1 trillion in the next 10 years. This will affect the small players in the US defence industry. Obama also wants friendly allies to up their defense spending so that the US can divert and channelize the money saved in propping up its domestic economy. Lets look at Mitt Romney. Romney still sees Russia as the No. 1 challenger if not the No. 1 enemy. He has promised that American defense spending will be accelerated to the tune of 4% of the GDP. This means an increase of over $2 trillion in the next 4 years. Romney also says that on being elected, he will declare China as the biggest currency manipulator. Romney wants a powerful

America which plays a major role in maintaining security in the world. He wants to build new frigates, new bombers and aircraft carriers. Meanwhile, Russia has said that it does not accept US domination of world affairs and is against its encroachment in Eastern Europe. Russia plans to increase its defense spending by 50% by 2015. What is the prognosis if Romney wins? One, that US and Russia will be again at loggerheads if Romney wins and this could lead to the start of Cold War II. Second, what does it mean for India if Romney wins? India will be placed in a highly awkward position. While Romney’s win will be good for the US and he might just well help America regain its lost glory making it more assertive on the world stage, an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between Russia and the US could start another arms race between the two superpowers. If Romney wins, the best thing India could do is to remain neutral, however, favoring the US since it shares democratic and liberal values and a free market economy but not altogether ignoring Russia, since Russia has helped India to a great extent in the 70s and 80s. But if Russia builds a nexus with China, then we should go all out in support of and back the US, EU, Japan and Australia.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 5:23 PM No comments:

Monday, October 29, 2012

Does India Have a Policy to Counter Cyber Threat?

Like always, the leader in global trends and ideas, the US, has fast detected the threat of cyber terrorism and cyber war on its soil. Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, recently said that the cyber threat was more visible now following the Iraq/Afghanistan wars and could cripple the country public and private computer systems. Shamoon, a malware that infected Saudi Arabia’s computer systems in the country’s largest oil/gas producer was cited as an example. Panetta also warned of a Pearl Harbour type cyber attack that could take the US by storm. Not surprisingly, the US Congress is in the verge of passing some bills seeking greater military role in cyber security both in the public and private spaces. Cyber attacks are capable of crippling a country’s energy, transportation, financial and banking systems. Is India alive to the threat. Even though 60 percent of our country is living in the 17th century, a small part is up to date with the latest in modernity. Should the government not set up a division for defensive and offensive positions in cyber security and cyber warfare? There must be joint cooperation between the government, public and private sector to secure India’s computer networks. Meanwhile, the US is getting ready to implement the country biggest defence cut in the next 10 years known as sequestration. Approximately 1 trillion dollars will be cut in military expenditures. Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 11:48 AM No comments:

Sunday, October 28, 2012

India Must Make Markets Attractive To Draw Investments

For global investors, the BRICs are losing their sheen even as other emerging markets, especially Indonesia and Philippines become

more attractive. What are the reasons behind this? Both Indonesia and Philippines have grown at a robust 6-6.5 per cent per annum for the last 2-3 years. Their domestic consumption demand is almost two thirds of the GDP. Philippines, with a median age of 22 and with a large English speaking population is fast becoming a more attractive BPO destination than India. Rating agencies such as Fitch, S&P and Moody’s have raised the credit rating of both these countries. In this scenario, India cannot rest on its past laurels and must create conditions necessary to attract foreign investment so badly needed to augment infrastructure projects. There are approximately 40 other emerging markets who are moving up the value chain with the doggedness of a bulldozer, and unless our capital markets look attractive the money from global investors could definitely go elsewhere. Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 4:21 PM No comments:

Sunday, October 21, 2012

World War III Could Happen in Asia in The Next 5-10 Years

As global economic woes continue to haunt world leaders, the world itself seems to be on the brink of a precipice and a large full scale war in Asia. What are the factors that determine this prognosis? Lets look at the EU where the sovereign debt crisis has gone out of control with another bailout being mulled for Greece and also for Spain. Analysts believe that France and Italy may also go the way of

Greece and Spain. The situation is so bad in Spain that some Spaniards were found rummaging for food in the country’s supermarket trashbins. The world’s largest economic block, the EU is imploding. Let’s look at the US. While polls show that the US could avoid a fiscal cliff, it has record unemployment, its budget deficit is at an all time high, and housing transactions have fallen. Yet the economic growth in the US could be better the next quarter. Democrat Barack Obama’s administration is pitching for budget cuts in the military and is urging countries in EU, South America and Asia to up their military budgets as the US having spent considerably in the wars on Iraq and Afghanistan is increasingly wary of providing security umbrella to friendly countries. Not surprisingly in Asia, countries such as South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore have increased their defence budgets and are going on a weapon’s acquisition drive much vary of a increasingly assertive, secretive and belligerent China. Besides, this the tussle between China and Japan over a clutch of islands which are rich in gas/minerals could spin out of control. Nationalist feelings are at an all time high in both these countries. World economic growth has been slashed to 3.3 per cent as a whole, with the advanced economies set to grow at 1.3 per cent and developing economies set to grow at 5.3 per cent, the IMF said recently. Growth in the world economy could increase marginally if the world fixes its unregulated hedge and derivatives trading, the World Bank said. What is necessary is accommodative monetary policies, steady fiscal consolidation and fixing the financial systems to spur growth, the IMF has advised. But the question is what factors point to a full scale blown out war in Asia or World War III. Some of the points above mentioned need to be factored but also the fact that Israel/Palestinian problems, Iran, Pakistan, China’s problems with Japan and southeast Asian countries, the deteriorating global economic order, the slowing of growth in the drivers of global growth namely China and India. The global economic recession is indeed very deep and entrenched and the world stands at where it stood in 1933, just before the start of the World War II.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 2:09 PM No comments:

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Riband Capitalism is Under Attack in Many Parts of The World

The current global economic recession could last for another 5-6 years, IMF chief economist said recently in Hungary. Besides, IMF has also pared the growth rate for India to 4.9 percent. What do these two developments portend for India? First, the assessments are realistic and quite accurate and therefore, these factors need to be taken into account while making policy or plans. By opening up more sectors of the economy, the GoI will help attract more investment into India. But economic reforms must be carried out gradually and deliberately keeping the welfare of the vast underprivileged in India. Will reforms lead to greater job creation, will it bring in necessary technological and managerial expertise into India which the country is currently lacking? Will they help raise the per capita GDP in India? Will they help the common man in India to raise his income levels in a lawful way? Will they help in boosting infrastructure in vital areas? Riband capitalism is under attack in many parts of the world, and it is

generally felt that the working class is paying for the ‘priviliges’ the affluent enjoyed on borrowings or credit. Certain aspects of capitalism may not necessarily be good for India and we need to adapt this concept suitably keeping our peculiar conditions in mind. An open economy where entrepreneurship can thrive and where businesses can flourish is good but at the same time there must be safety nets in the form of social security. We need an environment where Indian businesses thrive and can compete with the best in the world.

Russia, Pakistan Ties Should Not Alarm IndiaRussia and Pakistan have recently exchanged trade delegations and there have been quite a few high profile visists from one to the other. This should not be a concern for India. As India embraces a more liberal, open economy and a pluralistic democratic environment we will naturally gravitate towards the US, EU, Japan and Australia where we have shared values. Russia, sensing this will also balance this with forging alliances with those with whom it was not so cosy earlier. However, Russia has helped India a lot in the 60s, 70s, and 80s in basic industries. We should value this help which the erstwhile Soviet Union extended to India and should maintain a healthy and trusting relationship with Russia. We should push for more ties in those sectors where there can be transfer of technology in key areas. Russia has supported India on many issues in the UN on many occassions and we should never forget that. However things have changed in the last 20-25 years. The world is a lot more different place. The Soviet-US cold war is over and now we are entering a phase of Sino-US cold war. Without overtly appearing to be anti-Chinese, we should have our rooks and knights in place and play in concert with democratic nations. Relationships even with countries espousing different ideologies can be carried out provided it serves our interest from trade, economics or commerce. Should China and Russia cosy up beyond the current levels, then we should not hesitate to ally with US, Japan and Australia. Gain some, lose

some. Gains in some relationships will invariably lead to losses in some other relationships. But so be it.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 1:08 PM 1 comment:

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

War Looms Over Asia, Global Economic Outlook Bleak

As governments around the world do little to match policy with action, the global economy could slow further in 2013, the IMF has said. The US Presidential elections in November this year could determine the future course of US fiscal policy and hence, the world economy. A military option being considered for Syria/Iran problems could spark another round of hike in petrol prices. Military conflict looms over tensions between China/Japan over Senkaku/Daioyu islands. Climate change has cost the world $1.3 trillion, 1.6% fall in annual GDP and 400,000 deaths, the DARA group reported. Data from around the world show that the US/EU may be entering another round of recession putting pressure on growth rates of BRICS/emerging markets. Among emerging markets, CIVETS, MIST, SLIMA could be the drivers of growth, says Marc Mobius. As China rearranges its economy from export-led to domestic consumption-led, new economy Chinese stocks look attractive compared to old economy stocks. While emerging market currencies strengthend a

while mid last week, the actions of Central banks in the developed economies might weaken currencies in the emerging markets as they may be devalued. India’s regionalism and politics of appeasement should not in any way weaken a strong centre. The government should be seen as decisive and purposeful. Oil/gas sourcing should be diversified and alternative fuel/energy sources should be found. Reforms should be carried out in steady steps keeping the Indian conditions in mind.

Do what is right: Are the national parties in India losing their sheen? Looks like. This is pertinent because they seem to be obsessed with gaining/controlling/retaining power and all their actions are determined by that. But you dont get the prize by doing what others expect you to do, you dont get the applause by playing to the gallery, you dont win the game by how the spectators want you to play. Parties must determine their policies/actions based on what is good and right for the country and the people. The character of a nation develops when it does the right thing under tough and difficult times. That’s the yardstick. The right actions or policies can vary from time to time. What is relevant today may not be relevant tomorrow. So how do you determine what is right? That can be based on how one wants to see the present. Contextual intelligence and situational awareness is very important in this case. Let’s see what are the 5 most important issues plaguing India right now. These are: education, employment, territorial integrity, economic growth and good governance. Address these issues first. Actions must be made on boosting the growth indices in these areas. History will not judge you by how long you ruled, but how well you ruled and what you delivered. History will judge you by how you made things happen and how you changed the course of action. Remember, you dont win the game just because you want to win it, but because you have mastered the game, its rules and because you know how to play it well. The good player will always win, whereas the one who does not win is invariablly because he does not know how toplay well.

Prove your credentials: There is a lot of talk in the Indian media about the rise of regional chieftains/satraps in Indian politics. Who are the chief players in this arena? They are: Narendra Modi, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Biju Patnaik, etc. In one way this is a good thing that the country is having good managers in the state. Its good for the state and their people. No doubt, this will help the overall development of India. But their also have been talks by the media of some of them aspiring for the prime minister’s position. I think these allegations are false because none of them have openly, consciously said that they aspire to be prime ministers. Let’s face it: at any given point of time there are atleast half a dozen people in India who could be potential prime ministers. But at any given time there can be only one prime minister. Regional chieftains can certainly become prime ministers if they demonstrate a legacy of good governance, able administration and statesman like approach. Picking on petty issues only makes one look like a petty player, not a national player. This national outlook, if they aspire for the prime ministership, should be reflected in their talk, behaviour and actions. This will be reflected in what their world view and what their national view is. I dont think India will ever fall short of prime ministerial candidates. Surely a billion Indians can put a half dozen people for this position.

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 5:13 PM No comments:

Saturday, September 29, 2012

India Growth To Remain Muted For Next 6-12 Months

Economy to Remain Tepid: The US remains in a fiscal cliff and the world economy has entered the twilight zone. Manufacturing has slowed in the US, EU, and in China it has been the slowest in the last quarter. Yet, emerging market stocks and investment look attractive, so far. One must now give up aspirations for 6-8 per cent GDP growth and settle for 4-5.5 per cent growth for the next 12 months. To boost consumer spending, the government should lower interest rates, and release more liquidity in the market. Reforms must carry on at a steady pace without shocks or otherwise India risks being the only emerging market to be rated as junk. Subsidies must be only for the 20 percent of the poorest and they must be scrapped gradually in phases. Borrowing on credit must be curtailed. Credit card companies must make stricter norms for issuing such cards and payment defaulters who have a history should be denied credit cards. Focus should be on reigning in inflation, creating employment, boosting exports and increasing revenues. In military developments, China unveiled its latest stealth fighter the J-21 which has striking similarities to the US F22. China clearly is in a different league and aspires global, challenging US/Russia/EU. China’s military industrial complex is very advanced with over 1,000 companies. Its defence budget currently is $150 billion and is slated to rise to $250 billion by 2015. Elsewhere, BAe/EADS is mulling merger to create a behemoth rivaling Boeing. The slowdown is a good time for mergers/acquisitions.

Curtailing Corruption: Over the last two years, the 3G spectrum scam and coal block allocations have rocked the nation. The moot question is: why do scams happen? How much does a man and his family need to live a comfortable life in a metropolis, a city, a town or a village? I would say it would be seven times the market rent of a 2-3 BHK home in a decent neighbourhood. If that is the case, then why are people in power clamouring for spoils in the region of thousands of crores? Is it greed, desire, keeping up with the joneses, future security, leaving a legacy for their children, etc? Either way, the argument for accumulating wealth in the region of hundreds or thousands of crores cannot be justified. In a country where 60 percent of the masses can barely afford a meal three times a day, a shelter for themselves and decent clothing, having some people garnering thousands of crores is unforgivable. The solution is to be found at the hiring stage. Public servants, whether legislators, bureaucrats or judiciary must be hired at the initial stage based on their attitude and psychological makeup for being fit to render public service. There are hundreds of ways to ensure that only people who do not covet great wealth are hired as public servants.

Natural Resource Allocation: There has been a hue and cry recently over faulty assessment and allocation of national property and resources like spectrum and coal. Is it so difficult to find a just and fair method for allocation of natural resources? If the government’s fundamentals and basics are grounded in reality and are clear, then it becomes not so difficult. The questions to answer are: who are the major stakeholders in natural resources. The answer is: primarily the local population, state and central governments, and the private sector. Benefits to each stakeholder must be commensurate with his percentage of importance. Thus, the local population which has been staying for hundreds of years must be regarded as the prime stakeholder, followed by the state/central government and then the private players. In terms of percentage of financial benefits this could be 30 per cent for the local population, 50 per cent for the state/central governments and 20 per cent for the private industry. If

you have a situation where the private players corner the majority of the spoils at the expense of the local population, you are creating a likely situation for unrest and heart burn. Besides the state treasury would also get bankrupt. Despite, simple arithmetics, yet resource allocation is highly skewed because the system is geared to enriching a few private players and political leaders at the expense of the state treasury and local inhabitants.

Need to Fight Crime: We are no longer safe in Delhi, is the rising tide of comments by many Delhiites. Rape, muder, dacoity, abduction, kidnapping , robberies are on the rise. The newspapers are full of them and one gets a nauseating feeling in the morning when you read the newspapers. Newspapers must have a pullout for the crime section, which subscribers have the option to take or not to take. Its necessary to introduce the study of moral science in the secondary school stage as is the practice in many convent schools. Further, every school must have a psychology and career counsellor to assist disturbed students in putting their emotional, psychological, family life in order. Solve it just in time and nip it in the bud. A situation should not come when citizens feel that the state is ineffective in providing security. Hiring of constables and junior police officers must be done strictly on merit and aptitude and not on nepotism or bribing, as has been reported very often. The beat constable is the one who is the face of the police force, and he must be a strong person with good moral character, integrity and be service oriented. He must be paid well, his family should be looked after well, and he should not be subjected to round the clock duty or be forced to do double shifts. In short the police force needs to be augmented. Further, citizens can also step in. Patrolling by private, well trained guards by RWAs must be stepped up. Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 12:25 PM No comments:

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Asia Ups Defence Spending, Becoming Increasingly Militarised

It might be big business in the developed and industrialised countries but the defence industry is flexing its muscle with greater intent when it comes to displaying, developing and selling their wares to countries in Asia. That was aptly displayed at the recent Defence Services Asia (DSA) expo in Malaysia, where 850 companies from 45 countries participated in the four-day event, showing the variety of arsenal from handguns to jetfighters. The reason for such a display boils down to what drives the industry spending. And it's no surprise much of that is taking place in Asia.

A report by IHS Jane's, a defence industry publication, has forecast China's military spending will outstrip the combined total of Nato's top eight members Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Canada, Spain and Poland excluding the United States by 2015. Furthermore, growth in spending is taking off not just in China but also in South-East Asia, which has spurred its spending.

A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows that the region increased its defence spending by 13.5% last year, to US$24.5billion. The figure is estimated to skyrocket to US$40billion by 2016, with the report noting that Malaysia's defence spending has also risen. As observers have noted, Asia will outspend Europe this year. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says in the think tank's “The Military Balance 2012” annual report that China's spending has fuelled other growing Asian states into pouring more funds into their military and defence.

According to the IISS, Asia, excluding Australia and New Zealand, spent US$262billion on defence in 2011 with China alone accounting for US$89billion compared with Nato's European members, which spent about US$270billion. Asian countries increased their defence budget by more than 3% in real terms last year, the IISS said. China increased its share of total military expenditure on weapons in the region to more than 30%.

Western analysts point to China's plans for naval "force projection" to defend its growing economic interests in Africa and elsewhere, and secure maritime lanes of communication. More immediately significant is China's development of anti-satellite capacities, anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and cyber-warfare capabilities. "Managing tensions in the South China Sea will be an increasing challenge," said the IISS report.

Defence analysts also pointed to potential tensions between the US and China being aggravated by Beijing refusing to agree to confidence-building measures along the lines of those between the US and the Soviet Union during the cold war. "China does not want to give a seatbelt to the US," one defence analyst said. Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam are all investing in improving air and naval capacities, as are India, Japan and South Korea. India, for instance, plans to boost maritime capacities with submarines and aircraft carriers, said the IISS.

In Europe, defence budgets remain under pressure and cuts to equipment programmes continue. Between 2008 and 2010 there were reductions in defence spending in at least 16 European Nato member states. In a significant proportion of these, cuts in real terms exceeded 10%. According to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Singapore is now the fifth-largest arms importer in the world, bested only by some obvious behemoths—China, India and Pakistan—plus South Korea. Singapore accounts for 4% of the world’s total spending on arms imports. Its

defence spending per head beats every country bar America, Israel and Kuwait. This year $9.7 billion, or 24% of the national budget, will go on defence.

These are striking figures, but then Singapore has been one of the bigger spenders in the region since its rancorous split from Malaysia in 1965. The difference now is that almost every country in South-East Asia has embarked on a similar build-up, making it one of the fastest-growing regions for defence spending in the world. Military analysts at IHS Jane’s say that South-East Asian countries together increased defence spending by 13.5% last year, to $24.5 billion. The figure is projected to rise to $40 billion by 2016. According to SIPRI, arms deliveries to Malaysia jumped eightfold in 2005-09, compared with the previous five years. Indonesia’s spending grew by 84% in that period.

Indonesia is spending $8 billion this year on defence—still rather modest for a country of 240m, but up sharply from $2.6 billion in 2006. Much is going on new hardware and spare parts. The country has acquired Russian and American warplanes, including F-16 fighters, vessels for its navy, and spare parts for its C-130 transport planes. In January Indonesia signed a $1.1 billion deal for three German-made diesel-electric submarines, and lawmakers are debating whether to buy 100 Leopard tanks from the Netherlands.

Domestic political calculations are another factor behind the region’s defence splurge. Terence Lee at the National University of Singapore argues that in countries where the armed forces have meddled in politics, civilian politicians use larger defence budgets to buy political compliance from the military—Thailand is a case in point. Singapore, on the other hand, has a different motivation. It is the only country in the region building its own high-tech arms industry. Singapore has long sold weapons to other developing countries, but has recently been winning its first large orders from Western armies too. ST Engineering, the only South-East Asian firm in SIPRI’s top 100

defence manufacturers, has sold over 100 Bronco (or Warthog) armoured troop carriers to the British, for use in Afghanistan.

For all that, strategic concerns do count for something. For example, the sea lanes leading to the Strait of Malacca are the lifeblood of Singapore’s prosperity. And over the past decade, some may have worried that America was distracted by war elsewhere. So the growth of a Chinese blue-water navy has implications.

Strategic concerns also loom large for any country with a territorial claim to the disputed South China Sea (see article), where China’s assertive stance has provoked a surge of spending by, for instance, Vietnam. The country recently ordered six Kilo-class submarines from Russia. Vietnam is also buying seven or so new frigates and corvettes over the next decade. In the Philippines the government of President Benigno Aquino almost doubled the defence budget last year, to $2.4 billion.

Meanwhile, Russia’s deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin faces a formidable challenge of modernising Russia’s military-industrial complex. He should not be deterred in this vital national mission by alarmists and doubters, says Aleksey Volodin. The strategy for the development of the military-technical field will consist of two main areas: the development of Russia's own production capacity and the creation of joint ventures for the production of military equipment.

Also, Japan is building its military muscle to play a bigger role in Asia and the rest of the world, and it is making its military might more visible. Japan changed its defense policy last December to allow Japanese companies to export weapons and collaborate with countries other than its main ally, the US. During British Prime Minister David Cameron's visit to Tokyo last week, it inked a deal with Britain on jointly developing and building defense equipment. It was Japan's first weapons-building covenant with a country other than the United States since the World War II. Japan's desire to build

up its military strength has been fueled by the pivoting of the US' strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region.

Although Japan's Constitution forbids offensive military operations, Japan has quietly built one of the most capable armed forces in the world. It has more than 250,000 men and women in uniform and its annual defense budget is about $56 billion, among the six largest in the world. Japan is also extending its military presence overseas and focusing on the operational flexibility of its forces.

Sources:Richard Norton-Taylor/guardian.co.uk; By CHOONG EN HAN, han@thestar.com.my; Aleksey Volodin, Military Review Source: ITAR-TASS; Cai Hong (China Daily)

Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 7:33 PM No comments:

Thursday, April 19, 2012

India should strengthen IBSA within BRICS

In light of the slowdown in the US, EU and Japan, some 40-odd emerging markets led by BRICS is driving global economic growth today. The acronym BRIC, as originally coined by Jim O’Neil of Goldman Sachs ten years ago was meant to identify fast growing

economies which could offer attractive returns to foreign investors. But with the addition of South Africa in 2010, the ambition of this politically disparate group has grown manifold. My question is simple: what’s in it for India?

For starters, let’s look at the aspirations of this bloc and its chief frontrunner—China. China is pushing the BRICS promise aggressively and not without reason. Having outpaced Japan as the second-largest economy in the world with a GDP of $5.9 trillion and the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves of $3.3 trillion, China seeks to establish itself as a challenger to US supremacy, have a greater say in the World Bank and the IMF and establish renminbi as a reserve currency.

Jim O’Neil has fervently questioned the inclusion of South Africa in this bloc. South Africa has a growth rate of just 2.5-3 per cent compared to the average 6-10 per cent of China and India. Nigeria was a more suitable candidate for this position, says Jim O’Neil or other emerging markets like Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey. But South Africa was invited in this bloc at the insistence of China as it is a gateway to the African market for Chinese manufactured products and its rich energy resources.

The fourth BRICS summit in Delhi recently has shown that the world’s fastest growing economies can also cooperate on wide ranging issues. For one, they want the emerging markets to have a greater say in the running of the World Bank and the IMF. There is also talk about putting up a consensus candidate from the emerging markets to head these two institutions for long dominated by the US and EU.

Second, the BRICS summit in New Delhi also stressed the need to set up a South-South development Bank on the lines of the World Bank to finance infrastructure projects in emerging markets. Consensus was also reached on intra-BRICS trade in local currencies to cut down

on tariff costs. BRICS also put up a common front with regards to the violence in Syria and its opposition to the US-led sanctions against Iran for its nuclear programme. But there were no political or strategic decisions.

Can there be? Russia is an authoritarian communist regime, China is a single party communist state eschewing elections, while India, Brasil and South Africa are thriving democracies. The BRICS promise is being pushed aggressively by China because it wants to enlarge the scope of the not-so-effective Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, its bid to establish multi-polarity in the world and project itself as the sole challenger to US supremacy.

Both US and India, the world’s oldest and the world’s largest democracies are wary of China’s growing economic clout and its secretive weaponisation programme. Both want to contain China which has traditionally been an expansionist power. India would do well to stand solidly behind the US initiative of concentric triangle comprising the US, Japan, India and Australia to form a security counter bloc against China.

Should India play game with China? It could clearly be risky and detrimental to India’s interests. India has a long standing border dispute with China and a lost 1962 war, for long China has instigated Pakistan and Bangladesh against India and has encouraged Maoist terror on Indian soil, and occupies large parts of J&K. In this light, IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) partnerships of thriving democracies should not be dismissed but India should work harder on strengthening IBSA within the so-called BRICS bloc.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 9:35 AM No comments:

Friday, January 27, 2012

Gandhi Family: Conscience Keepers and Custodians of the Congress Party

The Indian National Congress (INC) Party is often referred to as the Grand Old Dame of Indian politics. Despite being in power for the larger period since the independence of India, the party has deliberately maintained a certain amount of somberness. The party’s chief characteristic is that it eschews a public show of pomp and splendour, something which is reflected in the way its leaders carry themselves—with a certain amount of low keyness. You will never find a Congressman mouthing loud about his accomplishments or being extremely extravagant about his tastes in public. Congress leaders are measured in their speech, they mind their manners and are careful about the way they conduct themselves in public. This is an innate quality among the Congress leaders which is well ingrained through rigorous party discipline and by example of its top leadership. Detractors say Congress leaders are carefull not to outshine the Hon’bl Gandhi family and that they give the Gandhi family members a high degree of reverence, both in public and in private. I ask why not?

The Gandhi family has been associated with Indian politics for well over 150 years. Among the party’s various illustrious leaders, it is one of the chief nay the prime families that have built the present day Congress party. Erstwhile scions of the Gandhi family have been prime ministers of India and have served the country with dedication and commitment. There have been charges by the opposition of high handedness, favouritism and wrongdoing against the family but this charge is not well placed. For a family which is the chief holder of political power in the country, the family members when both in

power or without have used their power carefully and responsibly. By the way the Gandhi family members conduct themselves in public, it can safely be ascertained that their mooring are firmly placed in reality and that they don’t have any misconceptions about the fact that power in a democracy is by contract and not perpetual. Often times, the Gandhi family has demonstrated leadership and responsibility in the party when direction within the party was missing. Whenever there is a void within the party the Gandhi family members have always stepped in to fill the gap. What comes out is that they are not so much interested in holding office of power but they are more interested in serving the country and the public. Power has often been thrust upon the family members and they have never pursued it blatantly. To shoulder such heavy responsibilities in the world’s largest democracy is no mean task.

The present arrangement within the UPA of having two centres of responsibility according to me is a brilliant tactical solution to governance in complex times. Under the Hon’bl Gandhi family’s guidance, the political aspect of running a coalition is working truly well. The Gandhi family’s political clout within the country has well managed to keep the coalition intact. On the other hand, Hon’bl Dr Manmohan Singh’s erudite and academic background has given the country one of India’s most well qualified prime ministers. Despite protests over inflation and food price rise, Dr Manmohan Singh is doing an excellent job. However I do feel that the path towards liberalization should be carefully tread upon. I can say that life was definitely much better for the common man in the sixties, seventies and eighties. The rupee had considerable purchasing power, and while salaries were nominal, goods were very affordable. Liberalisation has to be managed well as it is being increasingly felt that liberalization is benefiting the top 5 percent of society only and has infact heightened the income disparity between the haves and have nots. Hon’bl Smt Sonia Gandhi, as chairperson of the UPA and President of the Indian National Congress, is managing the political aspects of the coalition with élan and dexterity. Dr Manmohan Singh,

as the prime minister of India is doing a laudable job heading the government. Steps initiated by Hon’bl Dr Singh to make the government responsive, accountable and transparent are slowly and surely bearing fruit. It needs to be borne in mind that changes in the government take years and decades to fructify.

Jealous and sniggering detractors, often ridicule and mock at the present arrangement within the Congress and the UPA. They say uncharitable things about both Dr Manmohan Singh and Smt Sonia Gandhi. Many unpleasant rumours regarding the Congress and their leaders are doing the rounds within the country. But rumours are not meant to be believed. You cannot believe what a disgruntled person says. It could be out of spite or hatred. The public must use its own discrimination and discerning attitude in assessing what is the truth and what is a blatant lie. Allegations and accusations against the Congress party run rife. But to wield power and to wield it with responsibility is a remarkable quality of the party. Opposition parties when they have been in power have shown their true colours. They cannot claim a holier than thou attitude. Corruption scams when the opposition was in power run into several dozens. Harassment of political adversaries or challengers when the Opposition was in power are numerous and countless. The opposition has not proved that it can wield power with responsibility.

Hon’bl Smt Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origins and her Italian background have irked a large section of Indians and certain opposition parties. But despite her Italian background, Smt Sonia Gandhi has done more for India-her adopted country, than many so called patriotic Indian women. Originally she did not at all wanted to be in the muck which is Indian politics yet under public demand she chose to serve India. Fact is there is no Indian women who can match her stature. So what is the opposition complaining about. Hon’bl Shri Rahul Gandhi has shown remarkable maturity in steering himself clear of demands within the party and the country to don the mantle of the prime minister. It shows he has his feet firmly on the ground. He has

proved to be a brilliant campaigner and orator and his efforts to democratise the party is worthy of fulsome praise. Shri Rahul Gandhi seems to be making the right moves and sounds by his visits to India’s hinterland and understanding the problems of the country. His efforts to be in touch with India’s poor and downtrodden by extensively crisscrossing the country comes deep from the heart and is certainly not a show for public consumption.

Detractors of the Gandhi family and the Opposition very often complain that Congressmen are fiercely loyal to the Gandhi family. And why not? Afterall, the Gandhi family is the conscience keepers and the custodian of the Congress party.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 4:11 AM No comments: Labels: gandhi family, INC

Why Are Some Polities More Prone To International Conflict Than Others

Game Theory And Political EconomyJames Russell and Quincy Wright suggested in the American Political Science Review in 1933 that the danger of conflict could be diminished by looking within states to discern what contributes to the risk of war. Revolutions in game theory technology and political economy modeling are helping to advance those goals. The combination of non-cooperative game theory as an analytic tool and the assumptions of political economy models about leaders’ domestic interests and incentives offer a different explanation of international relations from that suggested by realist theories and

other state-centric viewpoints. Together with more macro-level theorizing we gain insights into what makes some polities more prone to international conflict than others. By adding the micro-level, game theoretic investigation of domestic factors to the analytic repertoire we have now supplemented the aspects of received wisdom that are consistent with the record of history with explanations for puzzling facts about conflict that no longer seem anomalous. Students of international relations are concerned with the description, prediction, and control of the external behavior of states, particularly of their more violent types of behavior such as intervention, hostilities, and war. It is clear that mere description of a diplomatic or military event has little meaning by itself and that such an event can neither be predicted nor controlled unless account is taken of the circumstances which preceded it within each of the states involved.—–James T. Russell and QuincyWright, “National Attitudes on the Far Eastern Controversy” (1933, 555).

Russell and Wright’s (1933) view lay dormant for most students of international conflict until well after the empirical demonstration by Babst (1964) that democracies rarely, if ever, fight wars with each other. That insight, originally articulated by Immanuel Kant in 1795, slowly percolated through the security studies community, eventually leading to a proliferation of theories and empirical studies that look within states to sort out why different types of regimes behave differently when it comes to decisions about war and peace. No other aspect of conflict studies since the advent of nuclear deterrence theory has had as large an impact on American foreign policy as the theorizing and empirical assessments of the democratic peace. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush embraced the central insight from this literature, with Bush making the promotion of democracy a theme of his foreign policy. Therefore, understanding the shift in research strategies that led to the insights of the democratic peace is important from both a theoretical and a practical standpoint.

Political economy was turned to as one means to try to overcome the limitations of realist approaches. It is not, of course, the only such alternative. Numerous other theoretical perspectives were also stimulated by the perception that realism faced limits on its ability to explain remaining puzzles concerning international onflict. Neo-liberalism, gender studies, constructivism, and computational models are among the alternative and sometimes complementary approaches explored as means to solve conundrums regarding war and peace. Like some of the alternative approaches, political economy models—–the focus here—–enjoy a history of success in other aspects of social inquiry. These include elucidating the democratic peace; clarifying issues in American and comparative politics, at least since the origins of the “Rochester” school in the 1960s; and providing micro-foundations for research in economics and politics about growth, the resource curse, trade, and banking policy. Political economy models, like some other modeling, also benefited from improvements in game theory that facilitated the construction of more sophisticated models than was possible prior to the late 1970s, as well as from the stimulus provided by the recognition that domestic factors contributed significantly to the demise of the USSR and the end of the cold war.

The political economy perspective treats leaders, not states, as the object of study. In doing so, it argues that relations among nations are produced by the normal pulls and tugs of domestic affairs, taking into account the domestic and international constraints under which leaders in contending states operate. That this is a significant conceptual departure from state-centric, realist accounts is exemplified by the inability of such languages as English, French, Chinese, Urdu, and perhaps all others to describe international relations without invoking the nation as the key unit of analysis. Political economy models and empirical assessments evaluate policy choices as parts of equilibrium behavior induced by domestic institutions. They conceive of the choice of foreign policy interactions

as incentive-compatible with the motives of national leaders. These leaders’ motivations may not be—–and often are not—–compatible with their nation’s interest.

Domestic institutional structures (such as the competitiveness of leadership selection or the extent of government accountability and transparency) help shape the interplay of leaders, elites, and ordinary citizens, resulting in policies that create the contours of the international environment—–contours that in realist approaches are taken as given rather than as factors to be explained. By drawing attention to leaders, recent scholarship illuminates empirical regularities not previously discerned. Gaubatz (1991), Fordham (1998a, 1998b), and Smith (2004), for instance, show that war-timing by democratic leaders depends on the election cycle, electoral rules, and domestic political circumstances. Fearon (1994) and Smith (1996) suggest that democratic leaders are more constrained than autocrats to carry out the threats they make because of domestic political audience costs. Schultz (1998, 2001) shows that the existence of a domestic political opposition limits democratic foreign policy adventurism in ways not experienced by non-democrats. Bueno de Mesquita et al. (1999, 2003) develop a “selectorate” theory of politics, showing how variations in the size of a polity’s political institutions, that is, its selectorate and its winning coalition, help explain the empirical regularities that make up the democratic peace. Bueno de Mesquita and Downs (2006) build on the selectorate account to explain the willingness of democratic military interveners to restrict the spread of democracy even when these interveners declare that they are motivated to promote democratic reform elsewhere.

Each of these studies shares a conviction that policy decisions are strategic, taking into account expected responses by foreign and domestic adversaries and supporters, and so use non-cooperative game theory as their foundational analytic structure. Many then go on to use statistical and case study methods to probe the generality

and the verisimilitude of their proposed explanations of international conflict. These studies also suggest critical empirical tests to help sort out the explanatory power of alternative perspectives. A game-theoretic focus on strategic interaction that assumes that states are rational unitary actors shows that war, being costly, is always ex post inefficient (Fearon 1995). Political economy, game-theoretic models agree but add that war, although ex post ineffi-cient in terms of citizen welfare, can be beneficial for leaders (Chiozza and Goemans 2004). Just consider Margaret Thatcher’s poor prospects of reelection as Britain’s prime minister before the Falklands/Malvinas War. Her popularity soared following the UK’s victory, which may have been instrumental to her reelection in 1983. We can only conjecture on what the electoral consequences would have been for Thatcher had she—cost-effectively—bought off Argentina’s generals and the Falklands’ shepherds rather than fight to defend Britain’s territorial claims.

The political economy approach’s microfoundations separate the interests of leaders from those of the broader populace, or the national interest. This may be its most significant evolutionary step beyond realism’s focus on the state as a unitary entity. As many have noted, the policies that leaders adopt to enhance their hold on power often make their subjects worse off. The selectorate consists of those who have at least a nominal say in choosing leaders and are eligible to become members of a winning coalition. The winning coalition is the subset of the selectorate without whose support an incumbent cannot be sustained in office.

Consider, for instance, the personally beneficial and nationally debilitating actions of North Korea’s Kim Jong-il, Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, or the Philippine leader Ferdinand Marcos. Each managed to retain his position of national leadership for many more years—–often decades longer—–than democratic counterparts can reasonably aspire to, and yet each contributed to the impoverishment of his nation’s ordinary citizens even as he and

his inner circle of cronies ensured their own wealth. In such self-aggrandizing circumstances it is difficult to square their international interactions with a state-centric approach’s attentiveness to the “national interest”. Yet such policies are understandable when one expands upon earlier macro-level theories by adding within-state micro-foundations. When domestic institutions constrain a leader to require a broad base of support—–as is true in most democracies—–then private rewards are an inefficient way to retain power. Democratic leaders would have to spread these rewards across so many people that each would receive too little for the benefits to influence their loyalty to the incumbent. In such a situation, it is more efficient for leaders to rely on public goods as their best means to retain office. When political institutions compel a leader to depend on many supporters, so that a bundle of public goods is the reward for retaining the incumbent, the institutions of governance induce weak loyalty to the incumbent. After all, everyone benefits from public goods, whether they support the incumbent or not.

Conversely, when a leader needs backing from only a few people to stay in power, the few are expected to be loyal both because they are well rewarded with private benefits and because they face a high risk of losing those privileges if a challenger topples the incumbent regime. Thus it is that resource allocations—–including provisions for national defense—–are induced by domestic political institutions rather than by international compulsions, culture, or the luck of the draw in leaders.

Extracts from the article “Game Theory, Political Economy, and the Evolving Study of War and Peace” published in the American Political Science Review, November 2006 by BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA associated with the New York University, Hoover Institution and Stanford University.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 3:53 AM No comments: Labels: game theory, political economy

SEZs: Handle With Care To Power Growth

SEZs: Handle With Care To Power GrowthSince early childhood, I have always been a dreamer at heart. In 1978, during a train ride from Bombay to Jabalpur enroute to Mandla, my maternal hometown, I imagined what it would be like having a 100km by 10km industrial corridor between Pipariya and Jabalpur on the lines of the famous Ruhr Valley of Germany. Ruhr valley is famous for its industrial history, originally based on coal mining and steel production and now benefiting from its industrial mix of energy production, environmental technologies and modern service industries. Ecological and economical problems, mainly the traumatic coal crisis in the 1960s, destroyed confidence and optimism. Most coal mines in the Ruhr Valley were shut down and the number of jobs was halved. Unemployment and social unrest were just some of the more pressing problems.

In the past decades considerable effort has lead to modernization and diversification of the economic base at the Ruhr. Nowadays, the 'Ruhrpott' is once more a thriving region and an enormous urban area. Bochum, Dortmund, Duisburg and Essen form an inter-connecting metropolis. The old industrial ruins have been converted into cultural venues. Ancient mine 'Zeche Zollverein' and can-like 'Gasometer Oberhausen' are just some of the highlights of the modern Ruhr Valley area.

One of the things Germany has done right in the Ruhr is to invest heavily in higher education and research. Until 1965, the Ruhr had no universities. Now it boasts five universities and seven advanced

schools of applied sciences. In addition, 13 cutting-edge research institutes have sprung up in the Ruhr since the early 1990s, including Frauenhofer and Max-Planck, thanks to $110 million a year in federal and state funding. State and local governments also are channeling funds into cleaning up the smokestack industry graveyards and seeding new technology parks with startups in fields such as medical technology, computer services, biotech, renewable energy, e-logistics, and environmental technology. Bochum's growing talent pool drew Finnish mobile phone maker Nokia to locate its only German factory nearby, creating 2,300 jobs.

India’s new SEZs are precisely aimed at creating this employment and exports. Some of them are already making news, like Dahej. The Special Economic Zone (SEZ) at Dahej has earned a pride of place among the top 25 best global economic zones, as per a global survey of 700-odd ‘free economic zones of the future' by ‘Foreign Direct Investment bimonthly magazine published by the Financial Times Group. The multi-product SEZ at Dahej on a fast trajectory growth for the last five years is ranked 23rd and is the only one from India. Situated on the coast of Gulf of Cambay, Dahej SEZ is spread over 1,700 hectares having attracted investment of nearly Rs.20,000-crore and providing employment to 22,000. When fully functional, Dahej PCPIR, falling on the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC), is likely to touch export target of Rs.62,000-crore.

The even greater success story that has been reported is the doubling and more of exports from the new special economic zones. Exports from 111 such zones totalled $49 billion in 2009-10, up 123 per cent from the $22 billion earned in the previous year. Total exports last year, at $176 billion, were about 5 per cent lower than in the previous year. If you take out the SEZ numbers for the two years, then non-SEZ exports fell from $163 billion to $127 billion — a sharp drop of 22 per cent. Continuation of tax exemptions for SEZ units would undermine the effectiveness of the new direct tax laws. Defenders of the SEZ scheme, on the other hand, point out that the

cost of preventing the exports sector from a virtual collapse in 2009-10 was a paltry Rs 5,200 crore by way of income-tax revenues, and Rs 3,200 crore of indirect tax revenues, which is what the government lost on account of the tax concessions given to SEZ units.

In view of this, the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) recommended an overhaul of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Act 2005 saying it has detected gross violations of duty and tax concessions causing it to suffer a revenue loss of Rs 1,75,000 crore to date. Broadly, the CBEC report has sought the removal of numerous exemptions, drawbacks and concessions that have turned SEZs into tax-avoidance conduits for importers and exporters without any genuine business to back them. The CBEC’s revenue loss estimate Rs 1,75,000 crore has been derived from concessions extended for capital goods and raw material procured by functioning SEZs developers and those that have been approved and are being set up (SEZs in the process of starting operations have to provide import estimates). The CBEC had estimated an overall revenue loss of Rs 3,50,000 crore involved in the creation of all SEZs since 2006, when the Act was passed.

The basic motive behind developing a special economic zone like SEZ in India or SEZ in China, primarily in the developing countries is to attract mass foreign investments in the country. India Real Estate Investments have attracted huge foreign funds and thus the special economic zones in India have increased by and large. The SEZ norms and rules vary from country to country and region to region. SEZ land involved also decides the SEZ policy for the SEZ approvals. The SEZ act 2005 announced the SEZ policy in India for setting up of any special economic zone in India. This special economic zone act 2005 set the guidelines and procedures for acquisition of SEZ land and SEZ development following the proper SEZ laws. Further amendments were made through SEZ Act 2006 and SEZ policy 2007.

The SEZ history dates back to 1965 when the first export processing

zone was set up in Kandla, Maharashtra. That was the instigation of SEZ's in India. The SEZ Act in 2005 established India Special Economic Zones formally. SEZ notification as mentioned in the SEZ Act includes:* To augment additional economic activity by attracting foreign direct investments* To promote exports of goods and services* To promote investment from domestic and foreign sources* To create more employment opportunities* To develop infrastructure facilities of global standards

SEZ India Benefits* SEZ's offer economic progress to the area, the local inhabitants and the country as a whole* Exemption from payment of stamp duty and registration fees on the lease/license of plots to the SEZ developer.* External commercial borrowings of upto 500 million USD a year without any restriction of maturity to the SEZ developers.

SEZ DisadvantagesSpecial economic zones and the SEZ projects have instigated certain SEZ controversy and a SEZ debate regarding the SEZ Disadvantages:* Revenue losses due to various tax exemptions and tax benefits awarded to the India special economic zones.* Most Real Estate Developers In India are interested in setting up a SEZ to cash in the india real estate bubble by acquiring SEZ land at cheap rates and creating a land bank for themselves

Presently around 14 major special economic zones are functional in India:* Santa Cruz, Mumbai, Maharashtra* Cochin, Kerala* Kandla And Surat in Gujarat* Chennai, Tamil Nadu* Vishakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh* Falta And Salt Lake in West Bengal

* Noida, Greater Noida in Uttar Pradesh* Indore, Madhya Pradesh* Jaipur, Rajasthan

Owing to the mass attraction of SEZ's in terms of the SEZ benefits or advantages, major Indian conglomerates are jumping into the SEZ development bandwagon. Some of the names that deserve mention here are Mahindra & Mahindra with Mahindra World City in Chennai and Reliance Industries along with Haryana Government and coming up Special Economic Zones by leading real estate builders and developers in India like Unitech India and DLF. The newer areas attracting SEZ development are Navi Mumbai, Manesar, Gurgaon, Noida, Indore, Dehradun, Kanpur, Kochi, Nandigram, Surat, Nagpur, surrounding areas of Pune, Goa, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Jaipur, and Karnataka.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 3:47 AM No comments: Labels: SEZs

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Republican Mitt Romney most likely to be next US President

Republican Mitt Romney most likely to be next US PresidentMitt Romney goes into Iowa Caucus stronger than ever, looking more presidential. Mitt Romney knows how to find common ground with others, compromise and get his programmes through. Romney goes into Iowa leading the polls. The last poll, on the eve of Iowa, shows

Romney with 24% of likely caucus goers. Ron Paul, the libertarian Texan has 22% and making a surprise showing as the new Conservative Evangelical wing's choice is former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum with 15%. This is a year all about beating Obama. Republicans and many independents (who have joined the Tea Party in droves) are scared of another four years of Obama. Four years as a lame duck, devil may care, I plan to leave America in my image as an EU satellite state, with massive social change, entitlement spending, socialised medicine, whether they want-it-or-not.Republicans are slowly realising that and will probably come around quicker than expected. If Romney wins Iowa, and then backs that up with a win in New Hampshire --where he is a local boy and stands at 40% in some polls, that will give him a strong out-of-the-gate showing. Even if he comes in second or third in Iowa, a win in New Hampshire will still give him a strong start. However, they state, 'we felt compelled to make an endorsement in light of a counter-productive effort to stop Mitt Romney among some disparate elements on the right--often based on a religious intolerance of Mr. Romney's Mormon faith. We also think the notion that the Tea Party will support a 3rd party candidate after Mitt Romney becomes the Republican nominee, a notion most often advanced by the mainstream media, must be discredited.' They believe that the 'only way to defeat President Obama, whose policies are an anathema to conservatism and the Tea Party Movement, is to rally around his strongest opponent - Mitt Romney.' The Republican operatives who created Tea Party Express, the leading political action committee of the tea party movement, recently launched a separate PAC called the Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama. By creating the independent group, the organizers can raise more money and be a stronger force in the upcoming presidential race. The new group has the ambitious goal of organizing 1 million people against the president through television ads, online petitions and grass-roots events. More than 46,000 people have signed the group’s online petition “to defeat Barack

Obama” since January. “We want to be the aggressive, independent group that goes after him and stands up to the Obama campaign,” said Ryan Gill, the PAC’s vice president.Romney views India as potentially profitable for U.S. marketing and investment, due to its flourishing economy and huge population. Romney said in 2005 that although outsourcing to countries like India is a problem, “we'll see new opportunities created selling products there. We'll have a net increase in economic activity, just as we did with free trade.”Mitt Romney is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, members of which are commonly known as Mormons or LDS (Latter-day Saint). In addition to missionary work in France in the 1960s under the tutelage of Wesley L. Pipes, Romney has served as a bishop, and has also been a stake president in his church. In accordance with LDS doctrine, as bishops and stake presidents are lay positions in his church, Romney received no compensation or money for his years of service in those positions. Also in accordance to his religious beliefs, Romney abstains from alcohol and smoking. Romney has expressed his faith in Jesus Christ as his "Lord and Savior" openly to evangelical Christian groups. He has received support from evangelical Christians.Mitt Romney's delivered his "Faith in America" speech on December 6, 2007. Romney's campaign billed the speech as extolling American freedom of worship while helping to satisfy public curiosity about how Romney's strain of religious devotion would inform presidential governance. Romney's speech gave primacy to the American Constitutional right of religious liberty, which produces cultural diversity and vibrancy of dialog. He called for public acknowledgments of God such as within Holidays religious displays. Romney said, "Freedom requires religion just as religion requires freedom." He cited a religious nature to historic abolitionists' campaigns, the campaign for American Civil Rights, and the contemporary campaign for the Right to Life. Romney advocated maintenance of a separation of Church and State, stating that he, as president, would decline directives from churches' hierarchies,

including that of the LDS church.Romney said while there are those who would prefer he indicated he holds his LDS faith merely as a tradition, actually he believes in his faith and tries to live according to its teachings, and while sacraments and confession of Romney's "church's beliefs about Christ may not all be the same as those of other faiths," he still holds Christ "the Son of God and Savior of mankind." Romney declined to address further the specifics of his Mormonism, implying that any compulsion to do so would counter the Constitutional prohibition of a religion test for political office. The similarities between Hinduism and Mormonism are less apparent, being on the level of abstract theology and worldview, but are all the more remarkable. For example, the Hindu idea of karma and reincarnation is similar to Mormonism, with its doctrine of pre-existence and eternal progression. In both cases you have lived a previous life, and your station in this life depends on how good you were in the previous life. Thus, Mormons could traditionally look upon dark skin as a sign of pre-life sinfulness. Also in both cases, this life is not the end-all, and does not result in a permanent judgment. Mormons teach that you will have continual future chances to get close to God, just as Hindus believe that you will have many future lives to pursue your oneness with Brahman.Mormonism and Hinduism also share a materialistic view of the spiritual realm. In Mormonism, it is based on the idea of a material God, a God who has a physical body. If God is a material being, the question then arises, who created the material, how did the material get here if God himself is material? The implication is that the material already existed. This is just like Hinduism, which says plainly that the universe is eternal and uncreated. Mormonism also teaches that in your future lives, you yourself can become a god. This is again similar to Hinduism, which also says that in your future lives, you can become a god.Like Hinduism, Mormonism is a make-it-up-as-you-go religion, which can change to fit whatever new circumstances it finds itself in. Hinduism can do this because it lacks any foundational, authoritative

teacher or theology, and brazenly absorbs any religious challenge it faces (such as proclaiming the Buddha to be an incarnation of Vishnu, or that Jesus learned his miracles from the gurus of India).

India’s nuclear triad to counter first-strike attackIndia will take a big step towards achieving a credible nuclear weapon triad in February when its first indigenous nuclear submarine INS Arihant begins sea trials off Visakhapatnam. The "sea-acceptance trials'' (SATS) of INS Arihant are slated to begin "towards end-February'' after the completion of its ongoing harbour-acceptance trials (HATS). With INS Arihant's induction, India for the first time will brandish the most effective third leg of the nuclear triad - the ability to fire nukes from land, air and sea. The first two legs revolve around the Agni family of ballistic missiles and fighters like Sukhoi-30MKIs and Mirage-2000s jury-rigged to deliver nuclear warheads. Only the Big-5 has nuclear triads till now, with a total of over 140 nuclear-powered submarines. America leads the pack with 71, followed by Russia with about 40, while China, the UK and France have around 10-12 each. A nuclear triad refers to a nuclear arsenal which consists of three components, traditionally strategic bombers, ICBMs and SLBMs. The purpose of having a three-branched nuclear capability is to significantly reduce the possibility that an enemy could destroy all of a nation's nuclear forces in a first-strike attack; this, in turn, ensures a credible threat of a second strike, and thus increases a nation's nuclear deterrence. While traditional nuclear strategy holds that a nuclear triad provides the best level of deterrence from attack, in reality, most nuclear powers do not have the military budget to sustain a full triad. Only the United States and Russia have

maintained nuclear triads for most of the nuclear age. Both the US and the Soviet Union composed their triads along the same lines, including the following components: Bomber aircraft capable of delivering nuclear bombs (carrier-based or land-based; armed with bombs or missiles); Land-based missiles (MRBMs or ICBMs) and Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The triad also gives the commander the possibility to use different types of weapons for the appropriate strike.ICBMs allow for a long-range strike launched from a controlled or friendly environment. If launched from a fixed position, such as a missile silo, they are vulnerable to a first strike, though their interception once aloft is substantially difficult, Some ICBMs are either rail or road mobile. SLBMs, launched from submarines, allow for a greater chance of survival from a first strike, giving the commander a second-strike capability. Some long-range submarine-launched cruise missiles are counted towards triad status, this was the first type of submarine-launched strategic second-strike nuclear weapon before ballistic missile submarines became available. Strategic bombers have greater flexibility in their deployment and weaponry. They can serve as both a first- and second-strike weapon.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 12:08 AM No comments: Labels: mitt romney, nuclear triad

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Wednesday, November 16, 2011

The Deprived Basically Need an Opportunity

Reservations/Conscription: Undoubtedly the socially and economically deprived must get opportunities. But is 50 per cent reservation in top institutes the answer? What the deprived basically need is a opportunity. Scholarships, easy student loans in 2nd-3rd rung institutes with 10 per cent reservations for the meritorious in top institutes would serve the purpose. There is no point subjecting a incapable mind to the academic rigours of top class institutes where the student may end up in isolation or feel incompetent. A 20% reservation could be allowed for the economically weaker sections of the society in the second and third tier graded professional institutions. Similarly reservations, voluntary or enforced, in the private sector would be like a ticking time bomb and can throw into disarray personnel and productivity milestones. Perhaps the private sector can be urged to provide 20% reservations for the meritorious among the weaker sections for apprenticeships/training. The best among them can then be absorbed. Students gaining government subsidized education (bachelors/masters/doctoral) must be asked to serve in the country for at least 5-7 years. The logic is that they are improving their skills at the tax payers money and must therefore give the tax payer something back. Those who want high paying jobs abroad must pay market fixed fee. Individuals often end up wasting 5-10-15 years of their lives in unsuitable jobs or when they are unsure of themselves. Conscription (12 months in NCC and 8 months in NSS) is absolutely essential for a country like India after the high school. This would inculcate in the youth a sense of discipline and service and the 18-month time would be well spent standing them in

good stead in future.

Insurgencies: Vast swathes of the Indian landmass (approximately 40 per cent) is in the grip of heavily armed internal conflicts in the north-east, central and northern areas. This is a startling trend which must be addressed with the utmost urgency. There are two ways to tackle this: hard and soft force. Formidable security deterrent for violence perpetrators must be established where the clear message should be that there is a very heavy price to be paid for indulging in violence. Moles and informers must be set up in the public and the militant ranks must be infilterated to get advance intelligence on their designs. Militants must be denied access to funds and weapons. Next the grievances, resentment and complaints of local militants against the administration or lack of subsistence demands must be addressed and met. It is preferable to get the aggrieved parties and their local leaders to cooperate with the administration in addressing their problems and getting them to participate in the electoral process if they want a share of power. Appeal to their self interest and how they would gain if they join the mainstram political process.

Bridging income gaps: A stark reality in India is the sharp gap between the haves and the have nots. While 5% could be categorized as the super rich, 10% as well off, 10% as upper middle class and 25% as the middle class. Nearly 40-50% are in pretty bad shape. Ignoring this 50% will be done at grave peril to the stability of the society which is reflected in insurgencies in 40% of the Indian landmass. Universal secondary/higher secondary education, self employment opportunities, entrepreneurship and small businesses is the answer. The nature of businesses can be determined by the local need and the geographical context. Tax rates could be fixed in 5-10 slabs depending on the income profiles with minimum tax payable of even Rs 50/- to Rs 100/- per annum. Even a rickshaw wallah can afford this and he would be proud to be included in the family of tax payers. About 70 per cent of the nations workforce is in the unorganised sector. Setting up guidelines, rules and laws for this

sector so that both the small businessman and worker benefits would raise income levels. The real India is not the gleaming corporate towers of Gurgaon or Bangalore or the Vasant Vihar look alike colonies of 8-10 metros. The real India is the 70% of the population which lives in lakhs of villages and thousands of moffusil towns and hamlets.

Communication: The need for regular, consistent and clarity in communication cannot be more emphasized. What a government in power expects from its employees must be communicated regularly and clearly without any ambiguities. The government must make sure lacunae and bad practices are effectively dealt urgently but all good work must be communicated to the public and key constituencies promptly and without hesitation. If you don’t blow your own trumpet no one else will do it for you. Example: For instance the PM should communicate with top coalition leaders, union ministers/secretaries, chief ministers/chief secretaries, ambassadors, key public/private constituencies on at least a monthly basis to communicate regularly the governments policy stance, vision and expectations.Since India has chosen to be a constitutional democracy it entails a change in mindset from pre-1947 to post-1947. Growth is always painful and change is always fearful and the learning curve for individuals, communities and societies varies from a few years to several decades and even centuries. To rule, to establish an empire is perhaps feudalistic and colonial. To serve, to take interest in, to give, to help, to safeguard and protect the public interest is in the best traditions of advanced democracies. It is very easy for public and the press to criticize and flay those holding positions of service. From a safe distance and without the constraints of changing dynamics those who criticize do not realize the constraints and pressures which public figures are subjected. To deliver and perform under a million watchful eyes and pressures is the way to realize the enormous demands on a person which public office demands. Ability and experience are therefore safe yardsticks to determine where a

individual fits best.

Political Campaigns: Campaigns can be categorised into local, state or national. When a campaign is national in nature it must appeal to the whole country and people where relevant national issues are discussed in a language which the nation understands. State campaigns must have a regional flavour while threading it to the nation in a language that particular regional group understands. A local campaign must take up local issues at the district level in a dialect which the local people understand. Campaigns must have issues which the people can connect to and must be liberally interspersed with anecdotes and humour in a language/dialect which the target audience can connect with. The campaign pitch must appeal to the self interest of the voter and the welfare of the local/state/national area. For a political campaign to be really effective it must be well planned and organized in advance and must be given sufficient publicity in the relevant media channels.

Political leaders: It will not be out of context to state that political leaders at the district, state and national levels are the true face of the society. If they want to create a good perception and image of themselves then they must must think, speak and act good. Others perceive a person for what he/she is in reality. Nothing more or nothing less. Political leadership at the district, state and national levels must be role models for the citizens. Earning the respect and trust of the population is paramount. If citizens don’t trust and respect their political leaders there will be a chasm, a void in communication which can breed distrust, antipathy and antagonism. Political leaders must be guided by the use of intellect, judgement, reason, objectivity, discrimination, self control. Political leaders must have control over their senses and must avoid any speech, behaviour or action dictated by hatred, ego and vengeance. Political leaders must be well aware of key information about their constituency, the issues at stake, they must network and interact with key stakeholders, must know the ground realities, must be educated and

well read, must be good problem solvers and must be experts in identifying disturbing trends and bringing it to the notice of the state and national party units.

Maintaining cohesiveness of the Indian state: A strong Centre is very important but at the same time it should not be overbearing, exploitative or victimizing in nature. Every state must get its due and rightful share due to its own local resources and assets. If a state is earning Rs 100/- you cant take away Rs 80/- of its hard earned money and tell it that you and your family have a ball in Rs 20/-. It will only make it resentful and spiteful. On the other hand of you tell a state that the state can keep Rs 60/- (or 60% of its resources) for its own people it will be more receptive to donate Rs 40/- for the Centre and other states. Ways must be found to keep a state attached to the Indian union for very strong and compelling reasons. Basically it should be made impossible for a particular state to survive on its own. States must be interdependent on each other and on the Centre for survival. The motto: play as a team, stay united and prosper or be a solo player and pay a very heavy price. The Centre must provide all legitimate support wherever a state needs it but subsidizing heavily 2-3 states on the hard earned money and resources of the other states will make the good ones resentfull. It is a better idea to get the poor performing states to shape up by providing them necessary managerial expertise.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 5:15 PM No comments: Labels: campaigns, integrity, leaders, reservations

The Greatest War is that of Self Conquest

The logic of war: Why do kings, presidents, prime ministers and politicians wage war? Is it for conquest, self aggrandizement, territorial expansion or economic domination. Do the great generals realize that the greatest war is that of self conquest? Who initiates aggression. Perhaps, it could be those people who have not considered that violence can also be contemplated upon them, who have not suffered psychologically and physically and who have not experienced death.In the current unipolar world, perhaps the only country in the world to play referee between squabbling nations and troublemakers is USA given its unquestioned intellectual, military and financial might. But some nations across the world and several sections within USA itself are questioning this role whether it is worth playing the referee with good intentions if it leads to feelings of resentment and thanklessness from the aggrieved parties especially when American interests or world peace is not affected? Violence is the first resort of those who are savage and the last resort of those who have reason. Is Osama bin laden stretching American patience to the limit and forcing a reaction? Persuasion, diplomacy, debate, negotiation, warnings are the preferred tools for sorting out problems. Yet for India, leveraging its relationship with USA has to be done skillfully considering we stand to gain immensely if we play our cards well keeping in mind our interests and America’s point of view. While all efforts should be made at self reliance we should accept knowledge, technology and other assistance from developed nations without guilt where essential and necessary and

offer assistance without cringing to the less fortunate where it serves our interest.

Closer home is Pakistan sponsored intrusion in J&K and elsewhere in India with repeated alacrity justified and should India tolerate it? Certainly not. If verbal concerns and warnings don’t suffice then the best thing to do is a brick for a brick or a stone for a brick lest it be misinterpreted for weakness and paralysis in which case the other side will only get bolder and bolder. In this context the policy adopted by the Scandinavian countries is laudable. They are well governed, have an enlightened population, co-exist and cooperate within themselves, don’t unnecessarily antagonize their neighbours and meddle in others affairs and focus in the pursuit of happiness and prosperity.

Yet we must maintain a strong and deadly army and ensure modernization and weapons acquisition based on perceived future threat. India must never shy of giving a tough fight if our interests are threatened and where the cause is just. India must always negotiate from a position of strength keeping the legitimate interests of the other party in mind and must never yield to a enemy which wants to talk pointing a gun to its head.

Indian naval fleet planning: How should India do it? That depends on what its goal is. If India wants to limit itself to the customary 200 kms of water from the shoreline then the existing fleet with minor variations is enough. But if we want to dominate the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, then the equation changes. Then naval fleet planning will depend on the returns. Should we not have one aircraft carrier each for the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean and international waters.

Should economic milestones dictate the purchase of these carriers considering the cost of each carrier is in the vicinity of Rs 6,500 crore? With the second aircraft carrier under firm order and the third

at the planning stage should the fourth be purchased when our GDP touches $1.5 trillion from the present $690 billion. What should be the number of destroyers, battleships, frigates, cruisers and submarines? As the fifth largest navy with a 180-odd battleships how should the navy plan and direct the movement of its armada and flotilla to best serve and protect the country’s interests. How many submarines should our naval fleet have? What should be the break-up of attack, patrol, SLBM and nuclear powered submarines?

Why is the navy’s role so important in the near future. Because with increasing international maritime trade and India’s rising commerce in the next 20-30 years maintaining India’s optimal naval equilibrium is essential given the expected large growth in the merchant navy strength, sea trade, offshore installations, fishing and ocean mining and protecting the sea lanes.

Will the Chinese dragon breathe fire? With increased competition from China will China pose a threat to India’s security say 15-20 years from now. Will it pose a land or an air threat. With reports of China heavily basing missiles in Tibet it doesn’t portend good news. In that scenario should India not develop IRBMs and ICBMs. Should it not raise additional mountain divisions and beef up the ITBP and the BSF? If China is instigating insurgency in the north-east and has a role in naxal and maoist movements in India then why is the Indian govt turning a blind eye to China.

How should we negotiate border disputes with China. If China agrees to Indian claims over the upper parts of north-east, aksai chin then we should stay quiet. If they don’t then we should raise the question of autonomy for Tibet and its independence. Why are we pursuing policies not in our national interest. What are China’s vulnerable areas apart from Xinziang? If China is perceived as a threat, then we should encircle it. Develop strategic friendships with USA, Russia, Japan, key 2-3 countries of south-east asia.

DEFENCE: Maintaining the security and territorial integrity of the Union is perhaps the foremost task of a elected government. The strength of security forces (army, navy, airforce, marines, paramilitary, police and intelligence) should be determined on the basis of existing and perceived future threat perceptions, the population (maintaining a optimum ratio), the geographical landmass, the international land borders and coastlines and the immediate area of the countrys defined strategic interest. This could be 2000-3000 kms from the international borders or the coastal areas. Weapon, armament acquisition should be on the basis of long term effectiveness, cost, technology, and effectiveness in the war theatre. Manpower hiring and training should be strategic in quality and content. Development in war theatrics must be followed in different global conflict areas and security apparatus must be so aligned to respond quickly to changing war dynamics and needs. R&D and armament factories must be forced to show results and come up with inventions and designs suited for the Indian defence environment. India’s defence set-up should be such as to deter any external aggression and to launch offensive/attack operations against enemy targets fomenting trouble wherever the need arises or is justified.We should not need the enemy’s permission to attack it if it is continuously jeopardizing our national security. Swift, lethal and surgical strikes against enemy lines must be sanctioned wherever necessary. Intelligence coordination must be ensured between all service divisions. Strategic defence policy forums must be operational to assess long term strategy, direction and gameplan. Defence policy must also be aligned with the country’s economic and political agenda.

Security: To ensure all wings of defence (army, navy, air force, marines, coast guard, intelligence) have the necessary wherewithals, training, combat experience so as to maintain a heightened state of alertness and preparedness to deal with sudden unforeseen external threats or aggression and to launch counter strike or attack operations. To ensure all wings of internal security (paramilitary,

territorial army, police, internal intelligence) are able to deal, check, minimise internal strife and rebellions, maintain law and order so as to make the common person feels safe and secure.

EXTERNAL AFFAIRS: The country’s war is fought globally by its diplomatic corp who are in fact the silent soldiers. Diplomacy must be dictated and based on the following parameters: interaction with the host country, intelligence gathering, economic and trade, servicing Indian community abroad, media management, public relations and lobbying, cultural and educational exchanges.

Indian missions abroad must be the dynamic face of a changing India, advocating and creating consensus in the host country for the nations needs and interests, building favourable perceptions and countering negative publicity, pushing the country’s agenda and vision among the key stakeholders, networking with key constituencies in the host country, gathering information and feedback on the country, identifying new trends and developments in technology, finance, management and science.

To use diplomacy as a means to ensure peace and stability, to maintain beneficial relations with geopolitically important countries, to maintain optimum relations with countries which fulfill our specific needs in terms of technology, trade, energy, to bring in best practices from every country, to diffuse conflict and tensions.

To serve and protect the national interest, to shape developments in the regional arena and build an environment which serves the Indian interest, to leverage our strengths with nations so as to serve the national interest, to ensure stability and prosperity around the country and within the country.Posted by Kanishka Gupta at 5:06 PM No comments: Labels: defense, external relations, navy, war

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