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Transcript of Www.gu.se Presentation vid Prins Bertil-seminarium 3 oktober 2013 THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE IN A...
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Presentation vid Prins Bertil-seminarium 3 oktober 2013
THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE IN A GLOBAL (ASIAN) PERSPECTIVE
Claes G. Alvstam
Professor i Internationell Ekonomisk Geografi
Centre for International Business Studies
Centre for Globalisation and Development
School of Business, Economic and Law
University of Gothenburg, Sweden
www.gu.se
Development of world imports 1970-2012
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
TOTAL
Advanced econ.
Emergingeconomies
Billion US Dollar
Source: Alvstam CG(2011) InternationellaStudier, UtrikespolitiskaInstitutet, No 2, pp. 36-40;IMF, World Econ.Outlook April 2013
Rev 130912
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THE ’BIG PICTURE’
• The ongoing process of specialization and division of labour within virtually all sectors of manufacturing and services;
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FROMTRADEINPRO-DUCTS
TO….
……TRADE INTASKS
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Commodity composition of world tradePer cent of total commodity value
1950 2000 2010
Raw materials andsimple preparations
Goods for final consumption
Intermediate goods (semi-manufactures, parts and components, capital goods)
50 10 5-8
35 20 15-17
15 70 75-80_____ ______ _______
100 100 100
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Commodity composition of world tradePer cent of total commodity value
1950 2000 2010
Raw materials andsimple preparations
Goods for final consumption
Intermediate goods (semi-manufactures, parts and components, capital goods)
50 10 5-8
35 20 15-17
15 70 75-80_____ ______ _______
100 100 100
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THE ’BIG PICTURE’
• Den fortgående specialiseringen och arbetsdelningen inom i stort sett alla varu- och tjänsteproducerande näringar
• The current challenge to maintain and develop the multilateral trade order;
• …..and the ambitions to develop multilateral investment agreements;
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THE ’BIG PICTURE’
• Den fortgående specialiseringen och arbetsdelningen inom i stort sett alla varu- och tjänsteproducerande näringar
• The current challenge to maintain and develop the multilateral trade order;
• …..and the ambitions to develop multilateral investment agreements;
• Are regional preferential trade agreements, partnerships etc. stepping stones or stumbling blocks towards a functioning multilateral trade and investment order?
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The emergence of regional preferential trade agreements – not
least in Asia
Source: WTO, adapted by Lindberg and Alvstam, 2012
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DIRECTOR-GENERALRoberto Carvalho de Azevêdo, WTO Director-GeneralRoberto Azevêdo is the sixth Director-General of the WTO. His appointment took effect on 1 September 2013 for a four-year term.
’The multilateral trading system remains the best defence against protectionism and the strongest force for growth, recovery and development….yet as I take on this role, it is clear that the system is in trouble….the perception in the world is that we have forgotten how to negotiate. The perception is ineffectiveness, the perception is paralysis…..The world would not wait for the WTO indefinitely.’ (Debut address to WTO member states, September, 2013)
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The Transatlantic Trade (and Investment) in a Global (Asian) Context
USAUSA EU 27EU 27TTIP
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The Transatlantic Trade (and Investment) in a Global (Asian) Context
USAUSA EU 27EU 27(Parts of)ASIA
(Parts of)ASIA
(Parts of)LAT.AMER.(Parts of)
LAT.AMER.
CANADACANADA
TTIP
TPP
TPP
TPP
TPP
TPP
www.gu.se
USA+CANADA2844(586)
EUROPE incl CIS53 units
6861(4910) OTHER
ASIA35 units
4988(1975)
JAPAN 886
317(14)
MENA23 units
1004(157)SUB.SAH
AFRICA46 units
380(48)
LATINAMERICA
36 units1180(236)
Japan 167
Other Asia 814
155 504393
184
16559
27102
US+CDN
91
116
714
537
330
126
840
98
170
391
484
Total import value of goods 2012 = 18,500 billion US Dollars
Source: IMF DOTS Database Aug, 2013 (prel.data) (Figures within brackets refer to intra-imports within respective bloc)
CGA 130821
32
140incl. Japan
91
164 170 (incl Japan)
WORLD IMPORTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS 2012
Lat.amer.217Asia incl. Japan
300
MENA 174
AUS+NZ
36
15
14
9 32
16
60
LA34
NA+LA 46
Eur
Aus+NZ 17
18SSA357 255 636
296
385
62
25
MENA+SSA18
www.gu.se
USA+CANADA2844(586)
EUROPE incl CIS53 units
6861(4910) OTHER
ASIA35 units
4988(1975)
JAPAN 886
317(14)
MENA23 units
1004(157)SUB.SAH
AFRICA46 units
380(48)
LATINAMERICA
36 units1180(236)
Japan 167
Other Asia 814
155 504393
184
16559
27102
US+CDN
91
116
714
537
330
126
840
98
170
391
484
Total import value of goods 2012 = 18,500 billion US Dollars
Source: IMF DOTS Database Aug, 2013 (prel.data) (Figures within brackets refer to intra-imports within respective bloc)
CGA 130821
32
140incl. Japan
91
164 170 (incl Japan)
WORLD IMPORTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS 2012
Lat.amer.217Asia incl. Japan
300
MENA 174
AUS+NZ
36
15
14
9 32
16
60
LA34
NA+LA 46
Eur
Aus+NZ 17
18SSA357 255 636
296
385
62
25
MENA+SSA18
www.gu.se
USA+CANADA2844(586)
EUROPE incl CIS53 units
6861(4910) OTHER
ASIA35 units
4988(1975)
JAPAN 886
317(14)
MENA23 units
1004(157)SUB.SAH
AFRICA46 units
380(48)
LATINAMERICA
36 units1180(236)
Japan 167
Other Asia 814
155 504393
184
16559
27102
US+CDN
91
116
714
537
330
126
840
98
170
391
484
Total import value of goods 2012 = 18,500 billion US Dollars
Source: IMF DOTS Database Aug, 2013 (prel.data) (Figures within brackets refer to intra-imports within respective bloc)
CGA 130821
32
140incl. Japan
91
164 170 (incl Japan)
WORLD IMPORTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS 2012
Lat.amer.217Asia incl. Japan
300
MENA 174
AUS+NZ
36
15
14
9 32
16
60
LA34
NA+LA 46
Eur
Aus+NZ 17
18SSA357 255 636
296
385
62
25
MENA+SSA18
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The foreign trade (of goods) landscape of the US
•Normally negative bilateral balances;
•Trade with Asia about 70 per cent larger than trade with Europe;
•Imports from Asia roughly twice larger than exports to Asia.
(2012 figures)
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The foreign trade landscape of the US
USA3882 (11%)
(X=1546; M=2336)
Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA130929
2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars
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The foreign trade landscape of the US
USA3882 (11% of WT)
Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929
CDN
MEX
621
496
2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars
www.gu.se
The foreign trade landscape of the US
USA3882 (11% of WT)
Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929
CDN
MEX
621
496
US trade with NAFTAPartners = 29 % of totalUS trade turnover
2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars
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The foreign trade landscape of the US
USA3882 (11% of WT)
Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929
CDN
MEX
621
496
EU 27
EUROPE 42 + CIS 11
(655)
788
US trade with Europe (EU27)20 (17) % of totalUS trade turnover
2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars
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The foreign trade landscape of the US
USA3882 (11% of WT)
Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929
CDN
621
OTHER WESTERN
HEMISPHERE
MEX
496360 US trade with Western
Hemisphere:22 % of total trade turnoverexcl. Mexico only 9 %
2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars
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The foreign trade landscape of the US
USA3882 (11% of WT)
Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929
CDN
MEX
621
496
ASIA 1263
US trade with Asia33 % of totalUS trade turnover
2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars
www.gu.se
The foreign trade landscape of the US
USA3882 (11% of WT)
Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929
CDN
MEX
621
496ASIA (1263)
US trade with Greater China16 % of totalUS trade turnover
JAP 220
GREATERCHINA
(Mainland+HK+MAC)
605
2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars
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Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)• Originally a trade pact envisaged by Brunei, Chile,
New Zealand and Singapore;• USA expressed interest to join in 2008;• Expanded through membership by Australia, ,
Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Vietnam;• Latest partner: Japan;• Now 12 members 37 % of world GDP; 33 % of
international trade;• Ambitions to close a comprehensive agreement by
the end of 2013!• Excluding P.R. China (The Elephant in the Room)
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The foreign trade landscape of the US
USA3882 (11% of WT)
Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929
CDN
621
ASIA
JAP 220
117MA
SP
VN
BR
AUS
48 MEX
PERU
CHILE
45
496
NZ
2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars
(1263)
Only 27 % of US trade withAsia related to TPP partners
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The foreign trade landscape of the US
USA3882 (11% of WT)
Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929
CDN
621
ASIA
JAP 220
117MA
SP
VN
BR
AUS
48 MEX
PERU
CHILE
45
496
NZ
US trade with TPP Asia ex Japan + AUS+NZ: 4 % of totalforeign trade
2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars
www.gu.se
The foreign trade landscape of the US
USA3882 (11% of WT)
Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929
CDN
621
ASIA
JAP 220
117MA
SP
VN
BR
AUS
48 MEX
PERU
CHILE45
496
NZ
US trade with TPP LA ex Mexico 1.2 % of totalforeign trade
2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars
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USA and TPP•US total trade with TPP11: 40 % of its total trade turnover;
•Minus NAFTA2: 29 %•Remaining trade: 11 %•Minus Japan: 6 %
•Remaining 8 countries: 5 %CGA 130929
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Exports+Imports of United States with TPP partners 1992-2012, shares of total trade
value
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
TPP11
ASIA5
S.AMER2
NAFTA2
OCEAN2
Share
Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013 CGA130930
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Exports from United States by main destination, 1992-2012, shares of
total value
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
CANADA
AUS+NZ
ASIA
EUROPA
MENA
SSA
LAT.AMER
Share
Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013 CGA130917
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Exports from United States by main destination, 1992-2012, shares of
total value
•No dramatic shift during past 20 years;
•Asia as a whole at a stable rate (around 25 %)
•However: exports to Western Hemisphere (up from 17 to 26 % of total US exports);
•Exports to Europe down from 27 to 21 %
CGA130917
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Imports to United States by main origin,
1992-2012, shares of total value
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
0,4
0,45
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
CANADA
AUS+NZ
ASIA
EUROPA
MENA
SSA
LAT.AMER
Share
Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013 CGA 130917
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Imports to United States by main origin,
1992-2012, shares of total value•Slight decline (in relative terms) of Asia as source of US imports;
•Europe stable around 20 per cent;
•Increasing shares of Latin America and declining position of Canada;
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United States: Trade with Greater China and Other Asia, 1992-2012,
shares of total value
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
0,4
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
EXP CHINA
IMP CHINA
EXP OTH ASIA
IMP OTH ASIA
Share
Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013CGA 130917
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United States: Trade with Greater China and Other Asia, 1992-2012,
shares of total value
• Imports from China up from 7 % to 19 %;• Imports from rest of Asia down from 34 to 18 %;
• The decline mainly related to Japan;• Exports to China up from 4 % to 10 %• Exports to rest of Asia down from 24 to 15 %;• The decline also here mainly related to Japan.
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PROBLEMS RELATED TO THE TPP APPROACH
• The TPP members reflect a declining share of US foreign trade
(Defensive rather than offensive strategy)• The absence of P.R. China (The Elephant…..);• Smaller ’elephants’ as well: South Korea, ’Chinese Taipei’• Dividing the ASEAN (forerunners vs. laggards in a potential
interregional FTA);------------------• Heterogeneity among members (economically and
ideologically)• Hurdles in the DDA remain in the TPP (agriculture, GMO,
SPS, TRIPS/IPR, state-owned enterprises…………• Controversial investor-state dispute settlement;
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Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Papua N.G.
Cambodia
Laos
Myanmar
Macau
P.R.China Hong Kong Chin.Taipei
Brunei
Timor Leste
Mongolia DPR Korea
New Zealand
USA
Mexico
Japan
Peru
Russia
ChileAustralia
Canada
APEC
ADDING SPAGHETTI TO THE NOODLE SOUP
India
Rep. KoreaASEAN/AFTA
NAFTA
Interregional
IntraregionalBilateral
CGA/LLL 071208;080420/130929
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
BIMSTEC
TPPmember
ACFTA
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LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITIES ?
• Successful completion of present TPP12 talks;• China joins (together with Hong Kong and ’Chinese
Taipei’);• South Korea joins as well, paving the way for a
Northeast Asian FTA;• Partnership with ASEAN4 is broadened to cover a
comprehensive US-ASEAN10 FTA;• TPP constitutes a solid base for dispute settlements
of other outstanding issues (e.g. Diaoyu/Senkaku, Dokdo/Takeshima, Spratly, Paracel……..);• Appropriate stepping stone to a ’Doha 2.0’)
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BACK TO EUROPE AND TTIP
• Defensive and reactive rather than offensive and proactive trade policy strategy (what priorities count by the end of the day?);
• Declining shares of world trade; declining intra-trade;
• Declining shares of transatlantic trade;• TTIP a welcome counterbalance to the slow pace in FTAs with Asian countries (Korea, Singapore, other ASEAN members, India, Japan…)
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EU Intra-trade ratio 1955-2012
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
EEC6
EG9
EG12
EU15
EU25
EU27
Per cent
070130090930100102110807130913
EEC6 x
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EU27 EXPORTS TO AND IMPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES 1992-2012;
shares of total extraregional exports and imports
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
IMP
EXP
Share
Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013 CGA130930
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Geographical composition of EU extra-territorial exports 2003 and 2012
N.AMER.
OTH.EUR
CIS
ASIA/Oc.
MENA
SSA
LAT.AMER
Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 30, 2013 CGA 130930
NA28.4
NA17.7
AS/OC 23.8 AS/OC
26.0
EUR 16,8
EUR18,6
6,3 CIS10,4
MENA 11,9
MENA12,0
2003 2012
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Geographical composition of EU extra-territorial imports 2003 and 2012
N.AMER.
OTH.EUR
CIS
ASIA/Oc.
MENA
SSA
LAT.AMER
Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 30, 2013 CGA130930
NA18,8
NA12,1
AS/OC 36,4 AS/OC
33,9
EUR 15,5
EUR15,0
9,0 CIS15,0
8,6 MENA10,0
2003 2012
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BACK TO EUROPE AND TTIP
• Defensive and reactive rather than offensive and proactive trade policy strategy (what priorities count by the end of the day?);
• Declining shares of world trade; declining intra-trade;
• Declining shares of transatlantic trade;
• TTIP a welcome counterbalance to the slow pace in FTAs with Asian countries (Korea, Singapore, other ASEAN members, India, Japan…)
• The Devil in the details:-- modest tariff reductions to be expected, but also a ’spiky’ tariff
pattern within manufacturing industries and agriculture;-- larger expected benefits in reduction/abolition of technical barriers
to trade (standardization, mutual recognition, certification etc.);-- higher potentials within services and mutual FDI flows;
• A small but important stepping stone to further trade liberalization at the multilateral level.
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USA+CANADA2844(586)
EUROPE incl CIS53 units
6861(4910) OTHER
ASIA35 units
4988(1975)
JAPAN 886
317(14)
MENA23 units
1004(157)SUB.SAH
AFRICA46 units
380(48)
LATINAMERICA
36 units1180(236)
Japan 167
Other Asia 814
155 504393
184
16559
27102
US+CDN
91
116
714
537
330
126
840
98
170
391
484
Total import value 2012 = 18,500 billion US Dollars
Source: IMF DOTS Database Aug, 2013 (prel.data) (Figures within brackets refer to intra-imports within respective bloc)
CGA 130821
32
140incl. Japan
91
164 170 (incl Japan)
WORLD IMPORTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS 2012
Lat.amer.217Asia incl. Japan
300
MENA 174
AUS+NZ
36
15
14
9 32
16
60
LA34
NA+LA 46
Eur
Aus+NZ 17
18SSA357 255 636
296
385
62
25
MENA+SSA18
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