Www.cmar.csiro.au/bluelink/ Building Bluelink Richard Matear, David Griffin, Peter Oke, Andreas...
-
Upload
gwendoline-parker -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of Www.cmar.csiro.au/bluelink/ Building Bluelink Richard Matear, David Griffin, Peter Oke, Andreas...
www.cmar.csiro.au/bluelink/
Building Bluelink
Richard Matear, David Griffin, Peter Oke, Andreas Schiller et al.June 2007
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Bluelink: a partnership between the
Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and
the Royal Australian Navy
Introduction
Bluelink: a partnership between the
Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and
the Royal Australian Navy
Talk Outline
•Ocean Forecasting Australia Model, OFAM
•Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS
•Bluelink ReANalysis, BRAN
•Bluelink High-Resolution Regional Analysis HRRA
•Bluelink biological modelling
Introduction
Ocean Forecasting Australia Model, OFAM
… every 10th grid point shown
Global configuration of MOM4
Eddy-resolving around Australia
10 m vertical resolution to 200 m, then coarser
Surface fluxes from ECMWF (for reanalyses)
Minimum resolution: ~100km
~10km resolution
Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS
The spatial structure of the covariances are determined by the statistics of the free-running model.
Influence of sealevel obs at x
Ensemble OI: vertical projection of surface observations- similar to multiple linear regression
Cross-section of temperature
increments
Plan view of sea-level
increments
Cross-section of temperaturebkgnd (grey) &
analysis (black-colour)
Plan view of sea-level
increments
-> need both SST and SLA.
BLUElink Reanalyses
Ocean Reanalysis over last 15 years
(1992-2006) with focus on Asian-Australian
Region
Boundary conditions for nested models
Physical fields for biogeochemical applications
Evaluate strength/weaknesses of ocean monitoring and forecasting systems in Asian-Australian Region (part of GODAE Intercomparison Project)
Timor Sea Volume Transports
BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.0
BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.0
10/1992-12/2004 1/2003-6/2006 10/1992-12/2006
Assimilates along-track SLA, T(Z), S(z)
Assimilates along-track SLA, T(z), S(z), AMSRE - SST
Assimilates along-track SLA, T(z), S(z), AMSRE – SST or Rey 1/4o OISST
no rivers no rivers Seasonal climatological river fluxes
SSS restoring (30 days); SST restoring (30 days)
no SSS or SST restoring SSS restoring (30 days in deep water only); no SST restoring
ECMWF surface heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes
ECMWF surface heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes
ECMWF surface heat and freshwater fluxes; and momentum fluxes from 10 m winds
3 day assimilation cycle 7 day assimilation cycle with 1 day nudging using 1 day relaxation
7 day assimilation cycle with 1 day nudging using 0.25 day relaxation
A few bugs No known bugs (yet) Fingers crossed
BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.0
BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.0
Warm bias No temperature bias
Noticeably discontinuous in time (jumpy, shocks etc)
Acceptably continuous (can track features easily)
SST errors ~ 2-3 degrees SST errors ~ 0.6-0.8 degrees
SLA errors ~ 15 cm SLA errors ~ 8 cm
Relocatable Ocean-Atmosphere Model, ROAM
•Automatic implementation via visual interface of hydrodynamic model (MECO) and atmospheric model (RAMS [CSU]) with minimum user input
•Forecasts of ocean and atmosphere state out to 3 days
•Ocean domains of scales down to 100 km x 100 km with resolution down to 2km
•Boundary Conditions:oLateral ocean boundary information from OFAMoLateral boundary information for atmosphere from LAPSoSurface atmospheric data for ocean from RAMS
1. Present-day climate: BRAN and/or Mk3 simulation (FY 2007/2008)2. Future scenarios: Mk3 or other IPCCC simulations (FY 2008/2009)
OFAM (~10km): Australian Region Responsibility: WAMSI Node 2 (CSIRO)
Mk3 or other (~100km): GlobalResponsibility: CSIRO
SHOC (~1km): SW-WA Resp.: WAMSI Node 1 (CSIRO)
Multiple Nesting down to sub-km scale
Multiple Nesting down to sub-km scale
Multiple Nesting down to sub-km scale
SHOC (~1km): GBR Resp.: MTSRF (AIMS, CSIRO)
ROMS (~1km): Ningaloo Resp.: WAMSI Node 2 (AIMS/UWA)
New Application: Downscaling of Climate Change in the Marine Environment (WAMSI + MTSRF)
•Focus on nutrient and carbon cycling in the upper ocean for multi-year simulations•Linked to carbon cycling in the ocean
ARBGC Model: Nitrogen Cycling in the Photic Zone
Figure adapted from Pearce & Griffiths 1991
Possible mechanisms of eddy formation and entrainment of shelf waters.
SeaWiFS with SSHA overlay
May 6th 2000
Observed annual mean Chlorophyll
1D assimilation
3-D assimilation
Biological data assimilation: model calibration
Delivering information on the past, present and future state of the ocean
• “Ocean Weather” maps providing daily forecasts and information on the open and coastal ocean up to 7 days in advance
Outputs: Operational meso-scale nowcasts and short-range forecasts of upper ocean temperature, salinity and current fields
• Integrated reanalyses of the ocean state over the last 15+ years. Public access for registered users: http://www.marine.csiro.au/dods/nph-dods/dods-data/bluelink (Marine Environment, Ecosystem, Coastal Management, Climate Research)
• BLUElink 2: Improving the current forecast system and moving inshore (wave forecasting)
• New and challenging application outside Bluelink: Downscaling of Climate Change in the Marine Environment
• New Funding for Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) - provides an avenue to expand ocean observations (eg. ARGO, Radar systems, Gliders, Moorings )
Summary (I)
Summary (II)
• Present focus on the physical model but desire to expand to biological models
• A BGC model has been coupled to BLUElink physical model
• Plan to calibrate biological model by assimilating ocean colour into 1D and 3D biological models
Future Needs
• Sustained biogeochemical observations to support BGC modelling and data assimilation
environmental management fisheries management carbon management
Thank you!
Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS
Ensemble OI … sequential assimilation technique
Assimilates observations of SLA, SST, in situ T and S
Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS
Ensemble OI … sequential assimilation technique
Assimilates observations of SLA, SST, in situ T and S
To constrain the model to match reality, then make a forecast
Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS
Multivariate assimilation system:
sea level obs correct h,T,S,U,V
Single point assimilation …
Delivering information on the past, present and future state of the ocean
• “Ocean Weather” maps providing daily forecasts and information on the open and coastal ocean up to 7 days in advance
Outputs: Operational meso-scale nowcasts and short-range forecasts of upper ocean temperature, salinity and current fields
• Integrated reanalyses of the ocean state over the last 15+ years. Public access for registered users: http://www.marine.csiro.au/dods/nph-dods/dods-data/bluelink (Marine Environment, Ecosystem, Coastal Management, Climate Research)
• BLUElink 2: Improving the current forecast system and moving inshore (wave forecasting)
• New and challenging application outside Bluelink: Downscaling of Climate Change in the Marine Environment (MTSRF and WAMSI)
Summary (I)