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Police Leadership Review

Horizon Scanning and Interpretation

January 2015

Professor Harry Scarbrough

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Horizon-scanning methodology

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Themes identified by College of Policing team

• Economic Challenges – e.g. continuing austerity and the impact on those delivering services to the public

• Changing Demographics – e.g. an ageing population, more culturally and ethnically diverse, significant competition for talent

• Citizen/service user expectations – e.g. increasing awareness and access to knowledge and information which impacts on the relationship between citizens and policing

• Technology Developments – e.g. keeping pace as technology continues to develop and using it to the full, technology in learning and education

• Complexity – all of the above (and more) leads to an increasingly complex environment in which the leadership role will need to be able to empower staff

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Review of themes• Economic

Challenges

• Changing Demographics

• Citizen/service user expectations

• Technology Developments

• Complexity

Global economic uncertainty. Rising costs of pensions and healthcare etc.

Impact of immigration, growing, aging and more diverse population. Generation, X -- Y -- Z

Impact of PCCs, increasing expectations of professionalism & service

Role of Internet – new crimes, ambiguity on policing mission, new forms of expertise

Need to collaborate with a wider range of groups to deliver policing functions, changes in organizations and operations etc

Internet as a social space

Complexity & Change

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Assessing impact of themes

INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF EVENT

INCREASING IMPACT OF

EVENTChanging

Demographics

LOW

LOW

HIGH

HIGH

Internet as a social space

Economic challenges

Changing citizen/ service

user expectationsComplexity and

change

Technology development

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Interactions between themes

Demographic shifts

Economic challenges

Citizen expectations

Ring-fencing of health and pensions reduces funding for policing

Greater diversity in recruitment to secure best available talent and safeguard legitimacy

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Interpretation Methodology

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Scenario Planning

a) a focus on uncertainties – issues that we do not fully understand - whereas traditional planning focuses upon the known and predictable;

b) exploring extremes, outside established ways of thinking;

c) examining multiple futures and ;

d) describing the future in qualitative, not quantitative terms

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Scenario planning

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Institutional level

Operational level

Increasing professionalism and specialization of policing models. Impact of democratic governance. New challenges of legitimacy and scrutiny.

Organizational levelMore flexible and collaborative structures to respond to complexity and growing citizen expectations. Leaner and more innovative organizations to meet reduced resources.

More knowledge-intensive policing work based on new tools and higher level workforce capabilities

Policing Domain

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Changing context >>> Leadership capabilities

• Democratic governance

• Public expectations of professionalism and growing range and complexity of policing

• Increasing complexity due to collaboration with external partners etc.

• Organizational change and restructuring to meet economic challenges

• New arenas and tools for policing

• Political skills to negotiate with democratic reps

• Leadership to support good practice inc. evidence-based policing

• Leadership more dependent on social interactions and networks of influence than formal authority

• Change capabilities to bring forces through re-alignments and restructuring

• Leadership in a multi-disciplinary environment; analysts, IT specialists etc.

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Lessons from other sectors

NHS•Move away from target-driven, centralized leadership of ‘pacesetter’ Chief Executives towards a more collective form of leadership. This is more appropriate to a multi-disciplinary setting where professional groups, managers and other agencies need to work together.

Private sector organizations•Greater emphasis on leadership to produce a compelling narrative or ‘vision’ for organizations. •Need to promote leadership at all levels to respond to shifting and more complex environment.

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Changing context and capabilities

‘Heroic’ leadership Collective leadership

•Leadership at all levels of the organization•Shared view of mission not a singular ‘vision’•Capacity for change and embracing diverse perspectives•Supports collaboration across groups & orgns•Alignment to shared values

• Leader is a Commander• Leadership centralized in a few individuals• Leadership is what the leader does• Leader defines a ‘vision’ for the

organization

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Napoleon also said:

“Every private in the French army carries a field-marshal’s baton in his knapsack.”