www.bea.gov

GDP-by-Metropolitan Area Statistics

Accelerated Release of Data for 2008

Sharon D. PanekAssociation of Public Data Users

Online

December 10, 2009

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BEA Introduced Accelerated Statistics of GDP by Metropolitan

Area

▪ Accelerated release of statistics by one year

▪ MSAs represent 90 percent of U.S. GDP

▪ Reflects BEA’s commitment to make accounts more responsive, timely, relevant and accurate

▪ Measures final goods and services and is consistent with BEA’s national and regional accounts

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Overview of Methodology

▪ Simple and transparent

▪ Relies heavily on industry earnings data which represent 64 percent of GDP

▪ Fully integrated with other statistics prepared by BEA

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Estimation Formula

▪ Equation for statistics:

▪ Sum of gross county product controlled to GDP-by-state statistics

▪ Chained-dollar GDP by metropolitan area computed with national deflators

MSAin counties ofnumber N

1,,

,,

,,,,

N

coyrcoi

yrsti

yrstiyrmsai Earnings

Earnings

GDPGDP

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Acceleration Formula

▪ Equation for accelerated statistics:

▪ Sum of gross county product controlled to GDP-by-state statistics

MSAin countiesof number N

1 1,,

,,1,,,,

N

co yrcoi

yrcoiyrcoiyrmsai Earnings

EarningsGDPGDP

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Evaluation Tools

▪ Internal sources GDP by state Earnings by place of work Personal income by place of residence Location quotients

▪ External sources Standard & Poor’s CompuStat Database Global Insight and Moody’s

Economy.com Numerous industry and local government

websites

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Economy.Com GMP Compared to BEA GDP by Metropolitan Area, 2007

$0B

$100B

$200B

$300B

$400B

$500B

$600B

$700B

$800B

$900B

$1,000B

$1,100B

$1,200B

$1,300B

$0B $100B $200B $300B $400B $500B $600B $700B $800B $900B $1,000B $1,100B $1,200B $1,300BBEA

Eco

nom

y.co

m

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-

PADifference: $77.5 billion

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI

Difference: $41.2 Billion

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX

Difference: $53.0 billion

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TXDifference: $43.7 billion

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

Difference: $35.0 billion

Source: September 2008 Moody’s Economy.com data release.

Note: The 45 degree reference line indicates where points would be located if Economy.com GMP and BEA GDP by metropolitan area were equal. Values are shown in millions of current dollars.

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Global Insight’s GMP Compared to BEA GDP by Metropolitan Area, 2007

Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet,IL-IN-WI

$0B

$100B

$200B

$300B

$400B

$500B

$600B

$700B

$800B

$900B

$1,000B

$1,100B

$1,200B

$1,300B

$0B $100B $200B $300B $400B $500B $600B $700B $800B $900B $1,000B $1,100B $1,200B $1,300BBEA

IHS

Glo

ba

l In

sig

ht

Difference: $4.6 billion

Difference: $7.7 billion

Difference: $7.5 billion

Difference: $5.0 billion

Difference: $5.5 billion

Source: “GMP The Engine of America’s Growth,” January 2007. Prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors by Global Insight.

Note: The 45 degree reference line indicates where points would be located if Global Insight GMP and BEA GDP by metropolitan area were equal. Values are shown in billions of current dollars.

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Metropolitan Areas in Perspective

▪ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island MSA ranked 2nd among states and 12th among countries1

▪ Current-dollar GDP for the Nation was $14.2 trillion; it was $1.8 trillion for California, the largest state1 World Development Indicators database, World Bank, August 24, 2009.

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Common Discussion Topics

▪ Size of the local economy

▪ Comparisons to other metropolitan areas, states, or the Nation

▪ Growth (or decline in the local economy)

▪ Industries driving a metropolitan area’s growth or decline

▪ The impact of natural disasters on a metropolitan economy

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Ten Largest Metropolitan Areas, 2008(Ranked by GDP by Metropolitan Area, Earnings, and Personal Income)

Source: August 2009 accelerated metropolitan area personal income release which is reported for 2008 OMB metropolitan statistical area definitions. 1 Rank for each series is based on current-dollar statistics.

Metropolitan Area

Rank1

GDP EarningsPersonalIncome

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 1 1 1

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 2 2 2

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 3 3 3

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 4 4 4

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 5 6 7

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 6 5 5

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 7 8 6

Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 8 7 9

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 9 9 8

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10 10 11

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Challenges

▪ Data sources for GDP-by-state may not be available for MSAs

▪ Correlation of earnings and output may not be strong for some capital-intensive industries

▪ State relationship of GDP to earnings may not apply to all MSAs

▪ Earnings data are not available for years prior to 2001

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GDP by Metropolitan Area: Future Work

▪ Monitor accuracy of GDP-by-metropolitan-area statistics

▪ Further research to refine statistics, if appropriate and feasible

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Contact Information

Sharon D. Panek, ChiefGDP by State Services SectionRegional Product Divisionsharon.panek@bea.gov(202) 606-9228 (phone)(202) 606-5321 (fax)