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Transcript of Www.bea.gov BEAs Industry Accounts: Improved Measures of Outputs, Inputs, and Value Added Erich H....
www.bea.gov
BEA’s Industry Accounts:
Improved Measures of Outputs, Inputs, and Value AddedErich H. Strassner
World KLEMS ConferenceHarvard University
August 19-20th, 2010
2www.bea.govwww.bea.gov
Balanced I-O Framework
Mining and Construction
ManufacturingTrade and
TransportationUtilities
Finance, Insurance, and
Real EstateOther
Personal Consumption Expenditure
Private Fixed Investment
Change in Private
InventoriesNet Exports
Government Consumption
and Investment
Mining and Construction
Manufacturing
Trade and Transportation
Utilities
Finance, Insurance, and
Real Estate
Other
Compensation
Taxes on Production and
Imports
Gross Operating Surplus
Total Commodity Output and
Value Added
CO
MM
OD
ITIE
S
Total Industry Output and Final Uses
VA
LU
E A
DD
ED
FINAL USESINDUSTRIES
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2010 Comprehensive Revision
Time-series annual I-O accounts, 1998-2008
Incorporated 1997/2002 benchmark I-O accounts and 2009 NIPA revision
Expanded annual data on business expenses by industry
Improved measures of price change for the services sector
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GDP and Real VA for All Industries
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
s
GDP Real VA for All Industries
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Measuring Output
Industry and commodity output based on a variety of sources Economic Census data Census annual surveys (ASM, SAS,
etc.) Trade association data and data from
other government agencies
Detailed commodity distributions retained from benchmark estimates; manufacturing detail updated annually
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More Accurate Time Series of Output
Misreporting Output for NAICS 812110
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
2,900
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mil
lio
ns
of
do
lla
rs
Annual Series Benchmark Levels "Benchmarked" Annual Series
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More Accurate Price Measurement
Real Gross Output for Retail Trade
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Per
cen
t C
han
ges
Previously Published Published
8www.bea.govwww.bea.gov
Measuring Intermediate Inputs—nominals
Benchmark estimates based on Census data (~70%) and other data sources
KLEMS input assignments based on 1997 and 2002 benchmark I-O accounts Definitions consistent with the Census of
Manufactures and Business Expenses Survey
Annual controls based on Census “core expense” initiative
9www.bea.govwww.bea.gov
Economy-wide KLEMS shares
2008Purchased Services
25% Capital 24%
Labor 30%
Materials 18%
Energy 3%
10www.bea.govwww.bea.gov
Measuring Intermediate Inputs—prices
Domestic and imported intermediate inputs deflated separately Nominal weights based on import
“use” tables BLS Producer Price Indexes BLS international price program Aggregation using Fisher index
number formulas
11www.bea.govwww.bea.gov
Measuring Inputs—Importance of Imports
Imports as a Share of U.S. Domestic Supply
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Per
cen
t
Imported Intermediate Inputs as a Share of Total Imports
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pe
rce
nt
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Imported Materials’ share of Manufacturing inputs
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Perc
ent
Annual Industry Accounts International Accounts
13www.bea.govwww.bea.gov
Measuring Value Added
Value added = Gross Output – Intermediate
Input
Value added = Compensation + Gross Operating
Surplus + Taxes on production
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Quality-Weighted VA in Benchmark Year
59,000 60,000 61,000 62,000 63,000 64,000 65,000 66,000 67,000
Value added (Millions of dollars)
Income-based
Combined
Production-based
15www.bea.govwww.bea.gov
Looking Ahead—future extensions
Time-series consistency of Benchmarks
Historical I-O accounts, 1947-1997 BEA/BLS work on prototype
industry-level production account Longer term: KLEMS statistics
available prior to 1998; industry production account available for earlier years