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Transcript of Www.arena.gov.au The role of Government in improving the competitiveness of renewable energy...
www.arena.gov.au
The role of Government in improving the competitiveness of renewable energy technologies and increasing the supply of renewable energy in Australia
Solar Power 2013
19 February 2013
www.arena.gov.au
Summary
• Assisting relatively mature solutions to bridge the commercialisation gap by contributing to project financing
• Supporting off-grid applications of renewable energy• Developing industry learning and capabilities through an ongoing pipeline of
projects for widespread deployment of renewable energy• Reducing barriers to renewable energy technology deployment by sharing
project information and learning, and increasing awareness and acceptance of the technologies
• Australian renewable energy landscape• Solar landscape• Policy drivers• ARENA strategy and investment plan• Investment highlights.
1.
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1. The Australian Renewable Energy Landscape
2.
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Renewables in Australia’s energy mixRenewables in Australia’s energy mix
Source: ABARES, Australian Energy Statistics (2011)
Australian Electricity Generation 2009-10
3.
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Australia’s renewable energy mix
This diagram shows Australia’s current mix of renewable generation capacity including bagasse, landfill gas, solar, wood waste, wind and hydro and the percentage of installed capacity for each between 2001-2012.
Source: CCA Discussion Paper Oct 2012
4.
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Location of renewable energy capacity
Source: BREE (2012) Energy in Australia 2012
5.
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2012-13 2034-350
2000
4000
6000
8000
2293 1996
105 145310 899
12681256
17602095
333
344
Electricity Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Transport Commercial and Residential
Australian Primary Energy Consumption By Sector: 2012/3 – 2034/5(PJ)
Sources: “Australian Energy Projections: December 2012”, BREE, 2012
Proportion of growth
2012/3- 34/5
2%
50%
6%
-45%
88%
-2%
Proportion of total in 2012/3
5%
29%
2%
38%
5%
21%
6.
Changing mix of Australia's energy demand
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2. The Solar Landscape
7.
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Australia’s Renewable Resources: a Track Record of Innovation
Source: Professor Stuart Wenham, China: Threat or Opportunity? (2012)
8.
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Compared to major solar markets, Australia is sunny
9.
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Solar in Australia’s 2050 electricity mix
Source: BREE (2012d)
10.
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Levelised costs in 2012 and 2020 – Photovoltaic, Concentrating Solar Power, Gas
Source: BREE, Australian Energy Technologies Assessment 2012
11.
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LCOEs for renewable energy technologies - 2012Levelised energy costs in 2030
This slide shows the forecasted Levelised Costs of Energies (LCOE) across renewable and non-renewable energy technology in 2030.
Source: BREE, Australian Energy Technologies Assessment 2012
12.
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Progress across the full set of costs is required to increase commercial viability and deployment
Solar Device Solar Device
Other Hardware,
Civils, Install, Land, O&M
Other Hardware,
Civils, Install, Land, O&M
FinanceChannel Margins
FinanceChannel Margins Local
costs70-80% of
employment in these areas
Global costs
TechnologyIP key value
LCOE Drivers
PV LCOE now <$200MWHr
13.
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Solar innovation chain – key challenges
Research DevelopmentCommercial
Scale
Incubating Promoting SustainingImagining Demonstrating
PilotScale
Demonstration DeploymentSupported Commercial
CompetitiveCommercial
IMPACT
TECHNOLOGY PUSH MARKET PULL
Proving it Works
Higher Efficiency
Lower Cost Materials & Components
Thermal & Chemical Storage
Control Strategies – Demand side management, resource
forecasting
Securing Capital
Lower Technology RiskProof of CostSupply Chain Development
System Integration – improving capacity
factors & YieldsManufacturing Process
ImprovementO&M track record
Proving cash flows
Project Finance & Revenue Certainty
Maximising NPVForecasting, storage, PPA terms
Capturing PPA value in uncertain markets – carbon, regulation,
ownership structures etc
Cost of ownership, permitting, social acceptance, skills availability etc
14.
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Unlocking the capital
Market
Commercial
Viability
Technolog
y Risk
Commercial viability– Upfront costs vs. long-term revenues– Highly sensitive to cost of finance– Bankable PPAs at market value
Technology risk (CSP)– Long-term nature of R&D– Funding the cost of proving its “bankability”
Market– Policy stability– Variation between jurisdictions– People and skills
$$$Debt & Equity
15.
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3. Policy drivers
16.
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Australia’s targets - projected growth in emissions and the abatement challenge
17.
Source: Treasury modelling, 2011 (medium global action scenario)
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Australian Government support for renewable energy technology development
18.
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ARENA - objectivesThe basics
19.
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4. ARENA’s Strategy and Investment Plan
20.
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ARENA - objectivesThe basics
$3.2 billion in funding
21.
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Strong foundations
22.
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Doing business
23.
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General Funding Strategy
GENERAL PRINCIPLES
ALONG THE WHOLEINNOVATION CHAIN
INVESTMENT PLAN
RESEARCH (basic and applied)DEVELOPMENTDEMONSTRATIONCOMMERCIALISATION
COMPLEMENTARITYCONFIDENCE BUILDINGDIVERSITY
STRATEGIC INITIATIVESSUPPORTING INITIATIVESCOMPLEMENTARY INITIATIVES
24.
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Investment Plan
STRATEGIC INITIATIVESare larger in scope and scale and typically fund market-oriented, near commercial, demand pull projects
SUPPORTING INITIATIVESmore limited in scope and address specific roadblocks to the success of a strategic initiative
COMPLEMENTARY INITIATIVESprovide ARENA with the flexibility to do those things necessary to fulfil all of its functions
• Regional Australia’s Renewables
• Deploying utility scale renewable energy
• Removing roadblocks for regional and remote renewable energy
• Building Australia’s next generation solar
• Supporting High value Australian Renewable Energy knowledge (SHARE)
• Continuing programs such as ERP and REVCF
25.
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Regional Australia’s Renewables
Industry
Size
Type of Support
Location of projects
Community
100kW – 1MW
Grants - capital subsidy
Off-grid
Roadblocks
No size
Grants – project costs
Focus on - system issues, demand management,
control systems, storage optimisation etc
1MW or more
Grants - capital / or revenue subsidy
Off-grid or fringe-of-grid
26.
PROPOSED OUTCOMES
2 xAt least 50 MW of renewable energy capacity installed
by 2020
10 MW or more renewable energy systems by 2018
Roadblocks removed. Trained
operators of renewables
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Demand for Off-Grid electricity is large in the minerals & energy sector
WA Forecast Increased Minerals And Energy Electricity Demand By Source
(GWh per annum, incremental above 2012 levels)
Sources: “WA State Growth Outlook 2013”, PwC 2012
95% of new energy demand
expected to be provided
off-grid
27.
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There are successful Case Studies of renewables in the mining industry
Sources:Remote Miners Investing in Renewables to Power Operations”, Renewable Energy World 2012, accessed at:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/12/remote-miners-investing-in-renewables-to-power-operations, ARENA analysis
28.
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5. Investment highlights
29.
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$650 million in investments
30.
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CS Energy Kogan Creek Solar Boost Project
31.
$A34.9m funding for $A104.9m project
• The project will be the world's largest solar integration with a coal fired power station.• 44 MW solar thermal addition to the
existing 750MW Kogan Creek Power Station in South West Queensland.
• AREVA Solar's CLFR technology.• 30 hectare solar field.• Operational in 2013.
www.arena.gov.au
Solar Energy Management (SEM) system for utilities
32.
CSIRO, Ergon Energy, GWA Group$A0.2m funding for $A0.6m project
Combines CSIRO’s thermally-driven residential desiccant solar cooling technology with a novel SEM system and natural gas-powered back-up to reduce peak electrical consumption from the grid with certainty while providing continuous operation of air-conditioning.
The SEM technology will be tested in 3 residential buildings to verify its ability to address grid stability issues and testcustomer acceptance as “winx3” for the environment,consumers and utilities.
www.arena.gov.au
Other Opportunities
33
Current funding opportunities through ARENA:
• $126 million Emerging Renewables program
• $200 million Southern Cross Renewable Energy Fund
Coming up:
• PhD Scholarships and Postdoctoral Fellowships
• Regional Australia’s Renewables program