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Transcript of Www.antolin-davies.com The purpose of this simulation is to create a competitive market and to...
![Page 1: Www.antolin-davies.com The purpose of this simulation is to create a competitive market and to observe the market as it achieves equilibrium. In this experiment,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110209/56649e565503460f94b4e608/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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The purpose of this simulation is to create a competitive market and to observe the market as it achieves equilibrium.
In this experiment, you will experience real market forces. The same human traits and behaviors that govern real markets exist in the simulation.
What are artificial are your surroundings. The market forces are real.
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The Players and the Goals
In this experiment, there are CONSUMERS and INSURERS.
INSURERS sell INSURANCE.
CONSUMERS buy FOOD and INSURANCE.
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Consumers
Each consumer has $20 to spend.
A unit of food costs $1.
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$20
The more food the consumer eats, the happier the consumer becomes.
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Consumers: The Catch
Each consumer faces some risk of badness.
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vs.
If badness befalls the consumer, the consumer loses all of the purchased food.
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Consumers: The Insurance
But, consumers can purchase insurance contracts from the insurance companies.
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Each contract pays the consumer $1 if badness befalls that consumer. The consumer automatically buys food with the $1.
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Consumers: Example
Suppose a consumer can purchase insurance contracts at a price of $0.50 each (the price of food is always $1 each).
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$20
Suppose that the consumer spends $5 on insurance contracts. The remaining $15 is automatically spent on food.
10 insurance contracts
15 food
(Consumers may buy fractions of a unit of food.)
$15$5
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Consumers: Example
If badness does not befall the consumer, the consumer eats 15 units of food and is very happy.
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Very Happy !
!
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Consumers: Example
If badness does befall the consumer, the 15 units of food disappear, each insurance contract pays $1. The consumer automatically buys food and the consumer is somewhat happy.
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Somewhat Happy
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Consumers
Each consumer’s goal: Maximize happiness
More insurance means
More food when badness befalls.
Less food when badness does not befall.
Too little insurance is bad. Too much insurance is also bad.
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Insurers
Each insurer can write as many insurance contracts as liked and charge any price.
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Insurers
If badness does not befall the consumer, the insurer walks away with the money the consumer paid for the contracts.
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$ $ $
$ $ $
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Insurers
If badness does befall the consumer, the insurer pays the consumer $1 for each contract the insurer sold the consumer.
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Insurers: Example
Suppose an insurer sells Consumer A six contracts for $0.60 each, and sells Consumer B five contracts for $0.30 each.
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The insurer collects $3.60 from Consumer A and $1.50 from Consumer B.
$3.60
$1.50
$5.10
Revenue =
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Insurers: Example
Suppose badness befalls Consumer B but not Consumer A.
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The insurer owes Consumer B $1 for each contract Consumer B purchased.
$5.00
$5.10
Revenue =
$5.00
Cost =
$0.10
Profit =
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Insurers: Example
Suppose badness befalls Consumer A but not Consumer B.
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The insurer owes Consumer A $1 for each contract Consumer A purchased.
$6.00
$5.10
Revenue =
$6.00
Cost =
$0.90
Loss =
(Insurers do not need cash reserves to cover policies.)
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Insurers
Each insurer’s goal: Maximize expected profit
Insurers can ask whatever prices they like for contracts
Too low a price is bad. Too high a price is also bad.
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Type 1
10%
Badness
There are five types of consumer. Each faces a different probability of badness.
Type 2
20%
Type 3
30%
Type 4
40%
Type 5
50%
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The Objects
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= insurance contract(s)
Contracts Sold BuyerSuspected Risk
(0.1 to 0.5 )Total Revenue
Expected Cost (contracts x risk )
Expected Profit (revenue - cost )
= sales register
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Contracts
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12 6
$4.80
Customer 6 purchases 12 contracts from insurer for $0.40 each.
The total cost is the number of contracts multiplied by the agreed price per contract.
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Register
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Contracts Sold BuyerSuspected Risk
(0.1 to 0.5 )Total Revenue
Expected Cost (contracts x risk )
Expected Profit (revenue - cost )
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6 $4.80
0.3
$3.60
$1.20
The register is for your own use in tracking your expected costs.
Feel free to cross out and re-enter information when your suspected risk for a consumer changes.
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6 0.5
$4.80
$6.00
-$1.20
Only give your agent one contract form at a time. Otherwise, you’ll likely miss recording sales.
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The Mechanics
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Agent
Insurers Consumers
Head Office $0.50
Prices are per contract.You may buy multiple contracts.
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The Mechanics
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Agent
Insurers Consumers
Head Office
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The Mechanics
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Agent
Insurers Consumers
Head Office
Consumers:Keep track of how much you have spent. You need to save cash to buy food and you only have $20.
Head Office:Keep track of your expected profits.Judge risk based on offer prices.
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Risk Types
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Risk Type Prob. Of Badness Risk Type Prob. Of BadnessConsumer #1 3 30% Consumer #19 1 10%Consumer #2 2 20% Consumer #20 4 40%Consumer #3 5 50% Consumer #21 3 30%Consumer #4 1 10% Consumer #22 2 20%Consumer #5 4 40% Consumer #23 5 50%Consumer #6 3 30% Consumer #24 1 10%Consumer #7 2 20% Consumer #25 4 40%Consumer #8 5 50% Consumer #26 3 30%Consumer #9 1 10% Consumer #27 2 20%Consumer #10 4 40% Consumer #28 5 50%Consumer #11 3 30% Consumer #29 1 10%Consumer #12 2 20% Consumer #30 4 40%Consumer #13 5 50% Consumer #31 3 30%Consumer #14 1 10% Consumer #32 2 20%Consumer #15 4 40% Consumer #33 5 50%Consumer #16 3 30% Consumer #34 1 10%Consumer #17 2 20%Consumer #18 5 50%
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Ready to begin…
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Agent
Head Office
Head Office:Keep track of your expected profits.
Consumers: Buy some insurance. All remaining money goes to food.
Insurers: Sell insurance to maximize expected profit.
Consumers:Keep track of your spending. You only have $20!
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Accounting Phase
Consumers report:
• Contracts purchased, cost, and from which insurer(s)
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1 no 18.8 3 18.82 no 17.5 6 17.53 no 12.2 20 12.24 no 19.1 4 19.15 no 15.8 12 15.86 YES 17.1 9 9.07 no 20.0 0 20.08 YES 17.9 19 19.09 no 19.5 5 19.510 no 16.5 14 16.511 no 18.5 10 18.512 no 17.0 10 17.013 no 16.4 11 16.414 no 20.0 0 20.015 YES 20.0 0 0.016 no 18.5 7 18.517 no 19.4 3 19.418 YES 15.8 15 15.019 no 20.0 0 20.020 no 19.1 18 19.121 no 18.5 6 18.522 YES 18.8 5 5.023 no 18.0 5 18.024 no 20.0 0 20.025 no 16.8 13 16.826 YES 16.0 20 20.027 YES 20.0 0 0.028 no 19.5 3 19.529 no 20.0 0 20.030 no 18.4 8 18.431 YES 18.2 10 10.032 no 20.0 0 20.033 YES 15.1 14 14.034 no 18.2 6 18.2
ConsumptionFood Purchased ContractsBadnessConsumer
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Insurer Premia Indems Profit1 $3.15 $11.00 ($7.85)2 $7.10 $5.00 $2.103 $4.10 $8.00 ($3.90)4 $1.95 $0.00 $1.955 $2.65 $2.00 $0.656 $4.00 $4.00 $0.007 $1.50 $8.00 ($6.50)8 $2.00 $0.00 $2.009 $4.55 $7.00 ($2.45)10 $3.65 $5.00 ($1.35)11 $3.15 $0.00 $3.1512 $12.70 $36.00 ($23.30)13 $3.60 $6.00 ($2.40)14 $8.20 $0.00 $8.2015 $1.60 $0.00 $1.60
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Mandated Insurance
Concerned that some consumers do not have enough insurance coverage, the law stipulates that an insurer may not sell fewer than 50 contracts to a buyer unless the buyer has already purchased at least 50 contracts (from any insurer) this round.
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Risk Types
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Risk Type Prob. Of Badness Risk Type Prob. Of BadnessConsumer #1 3 30% Consumer #19 1 10%Consumer #2 2 20% Consumer #20 4 40%Consumer #3 5 50% Consumer #21 3 30%Consumer #4 1 10% Consumer #22 2 20%Consumer #5 4 40% Consumer #23 5 50%Consumer #6 3 30% Consumer #24 1 10%Consumer #7 2 20% Consumer #25 4 40%Consumer #8 5 50% Consumer #26 3 30%Consumer #9 1 10% Consumer #27 2 20%Consumer #10 4 40% Consumer #28 5 50%Consumer #11 3 30% Consumer #29 1 10%Consumer #12 2 20% Consumer #30 4 40%Consumer #13 5 50% Consumer #31 3 30%Consumer #14 1 10% Consumer #32 2 20%Consumer #15 4 40% Consumer #33 5 50%Consumer #16 3 30% Consumer #34 1 10%Consumer #17 2 20%Consumer #18 5 50%
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Ready to begin…
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Agent
Head Office
Head Office:Keep track of your expected profits.
Consumers: Buy some insurance. All remaining money goes to food.
Insurers: Sell insurance to maximize profit. You may not sell a buyer fewer than 50 contracts.
Consumers:Keep track of your spending. You only have $20!
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Accounting Phase
Consumers report:
• Contracts purchased, cost, and from which insurer(s)
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1 no 20.0 0 20.02 no 12.5 50 12.53 YES 7.5 50 50.04 YES 20.0 0 0.05 no 15.0 50 15.06 YES 15.0 50 50.07 no 20.0 0 20.08 no 5.0 50 5.09 no 20.0 0 20.010 YES 15.0 50 50.011 no 12.5 50 12.512 YES 17.5 50 50.013 YES 15.0 50 50.014 no 14.8 54 14.815 no 14.0 51 14.016 no 20.0 0 20.017 no 12.5 50 12.518 YES 10.0 50 50.019 no 20.0 0 20.020 no 12.0 55 12.021 no 12.5 50 12.522 no 15.0 60 15.023 YES 15.0 50 50.024 no 20.0 0 20.025 YES 14.0 70 70.026 no 12.5 50 12.527 no 12.5 50 12.528 no 10.0 50 10.029 no 10.0 50 10.030 YES 17.0 50 50.031 no 17.5 50 17.532 no 17.5 50 17.533 YES 12.5 50 50.034 no 20.0 0 20.0
BadnessConsumer Contracts ConsumptionFood Purchased
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Insurer Premia Indems Profit1 $17.50 $50.00 ($32.50)2 $15.00 $0.00 $15.003 $0.20 $0.00 $0.204 $15.00 $0.00 $15.005 $15.00 $0.00 $15.006 $22.50 $0.00 $22.507 $2.50 $0.00 $2.508 $0.00 $0.00 $0.009 $30.00 $50.00 ($20.00)10 $10.00 $0.00 $10.0011 $9.00 $50.00 ($41.00)12 $25.50 $260.00 ($234.50)13 $3.50 $10.00 ($6.50)14 $5.00 $70.00 ($65.00)15 $5.00 $30.00 ($25.00)
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Mandatory Insurance
Concerned that some consumers do not have any insurance, the law requires that all consumers buy not less than 50 contracts this round.
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Risk Types
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Risk Type Prob. Of Badness Risk Type Prob. Of BadnessConsumer #1 3 30% Consumer #19 1 10%Consumer #2 2 20% Consumer #20 4 40%Consumer #3 5 50% Consumer #21 3 30%Consumer #4 1 10% Consumer #22 2 20%Consumer #5 4 40% Consumer #23 5 50%Consumer #6 3 30% Consumer #24 1 10%Consumer #7 2 20% Consumer #25 4 40%Consumer #8 5 50% Consumer #26 3 30%Consumer #9 1 10% Consumer #27 2 20%Consumer #10 4 40% Consumer #28 5 50%Consumer #11 3 30% Consumer #29 1 10%Consumer #12 2 20% Consumer #30 4 40%Consumer #13 5 50% Consumer #31 3 30%Consumer #14 1 10% Consumer #32 2 20%Consumer #15 4 40% Consumer #33 5 50%Consumer #16 3 30% Consumer #34 1 10%Consumer #17 2 20%Consumer #18 5 50%
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Ready to begin…
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Agent
Head Office
Head Office:Keep track of your expected profits.
Consumers: Buy some insurance. All remaining money goes to food. You must buy at least 50 contracts.
Insurers: Sell insurance to maximize profit.
Consumers:Keep track of your spending. You only have $20!
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Accounting Phase
Consumers report:
• Contracts purchased, cost, and from which insurer(s)
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1 no 12.5 50 12.52 no 7.8 50 7.83 no 7.5 50 7.54 no 13.3 50 13.35 YES 10.0 50 50.06 no 10.0 50 10.07 no 17.5 50 17.58 no 7.5 100 7.59 no 14.0 60 14.010 no 17.5 50 17.511 no 0.0 400 0.012 no 17.5 50 17.513 YES 15.0 50 50.014 no 9.5 55 9.515 YES 15.0 50 50.016 YES 7.5 50 50.017 no 10.0 50 10.018 no 10.0 50 10.019 no 15.0 50 15.020 no 10.0 100 10.021 no 12.5 50 12.522 no 15.0 50 15.023 YES 11.0 50 50.024 no 20.0 0 20.025 no 15.0 50 15.026 no 12.5 50 12.527 no 12.5 50 12.528 YES 12.5 50 50.029 no 5.0 50 5.030 YES 10.0 50 50.031 YES 17.5 50 50.032 no 17.5 50 17.533 no 12.5 50 12.534 no 7.5 50 7.5
Contracts ConsumptionFood PurchasedBadnessConsumer
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Insurer Premia Indems Profit1 $40.00 $50.00 ($10.00)2 $10.00 $0.00 $10.003 $29.00 $50.00 ($21.00)4 $10.00 $0.00 $10.005 $22.50 $100.00 ($77.50)6 $25.00 $50.00 ($25.00)7 $6.75 $0.00 $6.758 $0.00 $0.00 $0.009 $31.50 $150.00 ($118.50)10 $15.00 $0.00 $15.0011 $12.50 $0.00 $12.5012 $22.50 $0.00 $22.5013 $8.75 $0.00 $8.7514 $29.75 $0.00 $29.7515 $8.75 $0.00 $8.75
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Results…
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Type 5
Insurance Contracts Purchased
Free Market Mandated Mandatory
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0
5
10
15
20
25
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Type 5
Food Purchased
Free Market Mandated Mandatory
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$0.00$0.10$0.20$0.30$0.40$0.50$0.60$0.70$0.80$0.90$1.00
Free Mkt Mandated Mandatory
Insurance Price per Contract
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$0.00$0.10$0.20$0.30$0.40$0.50$0.60$0.70$0.80$0.90$1.00
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Type 5
Insurance Profits
Free Market Mandated Mandatory
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Type 5
Insurance Contracts Purchased
Free Market Mandated Mandatory
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0
5
10
15
20
25
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Type 5
Food Purchased
Free Market Mandated Mandatory
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$0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 $0.50
Free Market Mandated Mandatory
Insurance Price per Contract
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($80.00)
($60.00)
($40.00)
($20.00)
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Type 5
Insurance Profits
Free Market Mandated Mandatory
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• Forces lower risk people to consume quantities of goods that they may not want to consume.
• Transfers wealth from low risk to high risk people.
• A better solution is simply to tax the low risk people, give the money to the high risk people and let them buy what they want.
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What is the effect of insurance mandates?
(but what if they don’t buy insurance?)
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But, we have to do something!
Look at what has been happening to the cost of health care over time!
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
19
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
06
Price of Medical Care Consumer Prices Excluding Medical Care
58
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.economy.com)
Price of medical care has increased 349% since 1980 versus 135% for other consumer prices.
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
19
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
06
Price of Physicians Services
Price of Hospital Services
Price of Prescription Drugs and Medical Supplies
59
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.economy.com)
Hospital services + 576%
Drugs and supplies + 402%
Physician services + 282%
Other consumer prices+ 135%
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.economy.com)
-800%
-600%
-400%
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
Colle
ge T
uitio
n
Med
ical
Car
e
Hou
sing
Food
Gas
olin
e
New
Car
s
1 G
Hz
of C
ompu
ting
Pow
er
Gro
wth
in P
rice
s, 1
980-
2006
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$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Federal Outlays per Person Price of Medical Care
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.economy.com).
Price Indices (1954=400)
From 1954 to 2009, the cost of the Federal government (on a per person basis) rose 2800%.
Over the same period, the cost of medical care rose only 2000%.
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But, the cost of health care is only half of the picture.
What has been happening to the quality of health care?
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How do we measure the quality of health care?
1. What is “quality?”
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2. How do we account for health care that has become routine but didn’t exist in the past (e.g., pre-natal care)?
3. How do we weigh qualities across different types of care (e.g., glasses vs. heart transplant)?
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How does one measure the quality of health care?
An easy and composite measure of the effectiveness of health care is the mortality rate.
64
Some health care may have little or no impact on the mortality rate (e.g., orthodonture).
But, it is not unreasonable to assume that the qualities of other types of health care grow at similar rates.
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0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1960
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Infant Mortality per 1,000 Live Births
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Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2008, Table 77.
From 1960 to 2006, infant mortality fell 70%.
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Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2008, Table 110.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Deaths by Influence and Pneumonia (per 100,000 population)Deaths by Influenza and Pneumonia (per 100,000 population)
From 1960 to 2004, deaths due to influenza and pneumonia fell 60%.
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7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
1960
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Deaths per 1,000 People
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2008, Table 77.
From 1960 to 2006, the mortality rate fell by 15%.
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1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
1960
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Mill
ions
Actual Deaths in the Current Year Deaths at the 1960 Mortality Rate
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Source: Derived from Statistical Abstract of the United States, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What does increased cost of health care buy us?
400,000 lives saved annually
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But, what about the uninsured?
They aren’t sharing in this increased quality of health care.
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
70
Source: Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S.: 2006, US Census Bureau.
The percentage of the population that is uninsured has remained stable over time.
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau
Insured
Uninsured (15% of the population)
How many Americans are uninsured?
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Insured
Claim to be Uninsured but
Aren't
Medicaid or SCHIP Eligible
Uninsured
72
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau
(12% of the population)
How many Americans are uninsured?
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Insured
Claim to be Uninsured but
Aren't
Medicaid or SCHIP Eligible
Uninsured Less Than 4 Months
18 to 34 and Childless
Uninsured
73
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau
(4% of the population)
How many Americans are uninsured?
If we count one-third of this group, the uninsured are between 6% and 8% of the population depending on whether or not we count this group.
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Under 18 18 to 24 25 to 34 45 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
74
Source: Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S.: 2006, US Census Bureau.
The percentage of uninsured adults is highest among in the years of peak health.
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-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Under 18 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
Change in % of Uninsured 1999 to 2006
75
Source: Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S.: 2006, US Census Bureau.
The growth in the uninsured is commensurate with the hypothesis that, as the price of health care rises, the more healthy willingly choose not to be insured.
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A free choice to purchase is a vote, but with three important differences.
Political vote: One size fits all.
Free market vote: Multiple sizes for multiple recipients.
Political vote: Speed of change is driven by the election cycle.
Free market vote: Speed of change is driven by the accounting cycle.
Political vote: Signal is distorted because the vote is for a “bundle” of issues embodied by one candidate.
Free market vote: Signal is clear because the vote is for a specific issue. 76
Voting for the “right” amount of insurance
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Can one place a value on a human life?(and, if yes, is it wrong to do so?)
Yes, it is possible.No, it is not wrong to do so.
Almost everyone does it almost every day.
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ExampleInstalling and requiring children to use seatbelts on school buses will reduce the number of child travel deaths. But, it will cost (on average) $2.5 million for every child’s life we save.
Should we install seatbelts on school buses?
The naïve response is: “Yes! You can’t put a value on a child’s life.”
The correct response is: “What do we give up by spending money on seatbelts?”
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Spend $2.5 million on: # Lives Saved Annually
Seatbelts on school buses 1Airbags in cars 3Heart transplants 13Malaria prevention 975Midwife training in third world 310,000HIV tests for sex workers 715,000