Www. Dr John Broderick, KT Fellow Shale gas in a low carbon future. Golden age or gilded cage?
-
Upload
maximilian-hopkins -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Www. Dr John Broderick, KT Fellow Shale gas in a low carbon future. Golden age or gilded cage?
www.tyndall.manchester.ac.ukDr John Broderick, KT Fellow www.energy.manchester.ac.uk
Shale gas in a low carbon future.Golden age or gilded cage?
“Gas is green” rhetoric“As the UK moves to low carbon and renewable energy sources, natural gas
will be an important transition fuel.”
Cuadrilla Resources 2012, About natural gas, emphasis added
“We see natural gas as a key part of the lower-carbon economy as it is a plentiful resource that releases less CO2 than other fossil fuels when burned.”
BP 2012, Our programme of action on climate change, emphasis added
No climate benefit if shale gas emissions are additional
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Rio
Eart
h Su
mm
it
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
Cop
enha
gen
Acco
rd
Rio
+ 2
0
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Glob
al
eco
nom
ic
dow
ntur
n
… yet emissions have continued to rise (~6% in 2010, ~3% 2011 & 12)
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
… so what of future emissions?
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
Energy system design lives (lock-in)
Supply technologies 25-50 year
Large scale infrastructures
Built environment
Aircraft and ships ~30 years
Financial commitments to fossil fuel investments
30-100 years
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
~3000GtCO2 for 2000-2050
~5000GtCO2 for 2000-2100
… i.e. a 4°C – 6°C rise between 2050 & 2100
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
… and assuming current mitigation plans
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
… outside chance of 2°C
Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
If shale gas is a transition, what is it a transition to, and when?
Year
Billi
on to
nnes
CO
2
… building low/zero carbon energy supply needs to begin now
Too early for supply
Demand
Supply & demand
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Two impossible futuresA radical change in our economies or...
“When I look at this [CO2] data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.”
Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist
4ºC global mean surface temperature implies 5ºC - 6ºC global land mean
… & likely increase ºC on the hottest days of:
6ºC - 8ºC in China
8ºC - 10ºC in Central Europe
10ºC -12ºC in New York
info.energy@manchester.ac.ukwww.energy.manchester.ac.ukjohn.broderick@manchester.ac.uk www.tyndall.manchester.ac.uk
“Far from running out of fossil fuels, we have more than enough to fry the planet” – Dieter Helm (2012)
Source: IEA, WEO 2012 ©OECD/IEA 2012
Budget2012-2035
Budget2012-2050
Current ProvedFossil Reserves
From: D. Hawkins, NRDC, Can CCS Help Protect the Climate?, Nov 2012
Financial Risk: Unburnable Carbon
A precautionary approach means only 20% of total fossil fuel reserves can be burnt to 2050. As a result the global economy already faces the prospect of assets becoming stranded, with the problem only likely to get worse if current investment trends continue - in effect, a carbon bubble.
James Leaton, Carbon Tracker
...this report shows that even a scenario for [CCS] deployment that is currently considered optimistic would only make a marginal difference to the amount of fossil fuels that can be consumed by 2050.
Lord Stern, Foreword
Relative GHG Intensity JISEA study (Logan et
al 2012) echoed Weber et al (2012)
» Indistinguishable GHG footprint if well managed.
» Upstream emissions potentially substantial
» Energy systems likely more significant
Growth 3.5% p.aPeak 2025
Reduction 7% p.a. (2x Stern!)
Anderson-Bows: 2°C budget, CO2 onlyhttp://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html?sid=423cdf2d-23a1-4170-b4b6-74e87f173156
Budget premised on 37% chance of exceeding 2°C GMT rise
Anderson-Bows: 2°C budget, CO2 onlyhttp://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html?sid=423cdf2d-23a1-4170-b4b6-74e87f173156
Budget premised on 37% chance of exceeding 2°C GMT rise
Peak ~2010
Reduction ∞% p.a.
Anderson-Bows: 2°C budget, CO2 onlyhttp://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html?sid=423cdf2d-23a1-4170-b4b6-74e87f173156
Budget premised on 37% chance of exceeding 2°C GMT rise