WWF

amr contactsAmanda [email protected] [email protected]

WWF ContactsPhil [email protected] [email protected]

18th April, 2013

Climate Change & Carbon Price StudyWWF

mailto:[email protected]





Background & Method

Background• This study explored perceptions and support of Carbon Pricing and Climate Change, as well as the

factors which have impacted peoples perceptions over the past year.

Method• An online survey was conducted among Australians aged 18+. • Fieldwork ran from March 25th – 27th.• The survey captured the views of 1295 respondents.• Respondents were representative of the Australian population in terms of their age and gender

by each major city.

2

3

Perth(n=143)

Darwin(n=7**)

Brisbane(n=215)

Sydney(n=338)

Melbourne(n=383)

Adelaide(n=148)

Hobart(n=13*)

ACT(n=48*)

Base: All respondents (n=1295) Question: S6 “Which area do you currently live in?”

*Small sample size/ ** Extremely small sample size

Sample Sizes

3

Key Findings

Once given basic information about the Carbon Price, only a third of people still want it repealed. The number in favour of the repeal was significantly lower among the one in five Australians who are unsure of their voting intention with only 19% wanting the Carbon Price repealed. Conversely, support of the repeal is higher among the 38% of Australians who would vote for the Liberal Party.

The key reason given for why the Carbon Price should be repealed is that it has increased cost of living. When asked why the Carbon Price should stay, people state it is a real incentive for big polluters to change. Behavioural economic theory suggests that promoting messages of the Carbon Price benefits whilst ignoring the negative messages surrounding it is likely to have the biggest improvement on support.

Almost three quarters of Australians feel that humans are contributing to climate change, with the next largest group unsure about human contribution. Those under the age of 50 have a higher belief in the human contribution to climate change, along with females.

Among those who feel humans are contributing to climate change, extreme weather events are resonating and impacting their opinions most. Conversely, those who are more certain that humans are not contributing recall being most impacted by the media.

5

Base: All respondents (n=1295)Question: G3“The Carbon Price/tax has applied to major carbon polluting businesses since the middle of 2012. Which of the following comes closest to your view on how Australia should handle carbon pricing?” G4“The Carbon Price/tax will eventually make renewable energy cheaper than traditional coal, and over the next 5 years, $5 billion dollars raised from the Carbon Price will be invested in large scale renewable energy development. Now knowing this do you think...”

Uninformed

39%

42%

19%

Informed

45%

35%

19%

Unsure

Should be repealed

Should be given an opportunity to work

“The Carbon Price/tax will eventually make renewable energy cheaper than traditional coal, and over the next 5 years, $5 billion dollars raised from the Carbon Price will

be invested in large scale renewable energy development.“

Although the percentage of those unsure remained the same the make

up of those is different. Almost a quarter of those who were previously unsure were in favour once informed

and some of those who wanted it repealed became unsure.

Once informed about the Carbon Price only one third of Australians are in favour of its repeal.

The Carbon Price

4%

5%

3%

24% 11% 20% 4% 2% 38%

6Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by Federal Election first preference G6 Question: G4 “The Carbon Price/tax will eventually make renewable energy cheaper than traditional coal, and over the next 5 years, $5 billion dollars raised from the Carbon Price will be invested in large scale renewable energy development. Now knowing this do you think...”

Australian Labor Party

The Greens Unsure of voting intention

Independent Other Liberal Party of Australia

76% 77%

39% 44%

28%21%

9% 11%

19%

43%

57%65%

15% 11%

42%

13% 16% 14%

Unsure

Should be repealed


The Carbon Price - Informed

Unsurprisingly those who would vote for the Liberal Party are most in favour of repealing the Carbon Price, whilst Labour and Green supporters are least in favour. The other group which does not support the repeal is the 20% of Australians who are undecided about their voting intention.

7Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by Location S6 Question: G4 “The Carbon Price/tax will eventually make renewable energy cheaper than traditional coal, and over the next 5 years, $5 billion dollars raised from the Carbon Price will be invested in large scale renewable energy development. Now knowing this do you think...”

Melbourne Sydney & ACT Brisbane Adelaide Perth

46% 45% 44% 42% 42%

35% 35% 36% 36% 39%

19% 20% 20% 23% 19%

Unsure

Should be repealed


The Carbon Price - Informed

Melbourne is most in favour of giving the Carbon Price an opportunity to work. However all cities have more positivity than negativity towards the Carbon Price.

It has increased cost of living

It is based on a broken promise by Gillard

It has cost our economy and jobs

It has no benefit to the environment

We should address climate change, but carbon pricing is not the right policy

I don't believe in climate change

I think climate change policies have moved too quickly, and need to be wound back

I don't understand the outcomes or how it works

Other

69%

55%

53%

51%

47%

20%

19%

9%

8%

8

The key reason given for repealing the Carbon Price is “increased cost of living”. Almost half of those against the Tax still want to address Climate Change but do not feel Carbon Pricing is the best policy.

Base: Those who think the carbon tax should be repealed G4 (n=438)Question: G5 “Why do you favour repeal of the Carbon Price laws?

Although instinct may be to counter this message, behavioural economics has shown that to advocate a counter message only reinforces the original message. This is the result of two key behaviours; firstly, people tend to remember things they have heard not in full but truncate what they hear. Whilst the original message may be “The Carbon Tax will not increase cost of living” people after a while recall “Carbon Tax” “cost of living”. This then compounds the issue as we are biased to believe things we hear most often.

Reasons for repealing the Carbon Price

It gives big polluters a real incentive to reduce carbon pollution

Australia should go forward on climate change, not backwards

It's too soon to pass judgement and should be given a few years to make a real positive impact

Even though it may not be perfect It didnt destroy the economy or jobs

We need to take the politics out of important issues like climate change

It's the best policy that we have on climate change

Business and investors need certainty so they can get on with things

It didn't cause me any economic hardship, it was all just a scare campaign

Other

74%

62%

51%

48%

44%

39%

30%

30%

2%

9

The incentive for big polluters to reduce their pollution is the main reason for supporting the Carbon Price.

Base: Those who think the carbon tax should be given an opportunity to work G4 (n=598)Question: G5a “Why do you think we should give the Carbon Price an opportunity to work?”

According to the behavioural economic theories, focusing on the positive outcomes of the Carbon Price (such as the incentive for big polluters) and ignoring any negative messages spread by those against it is most likely to encourage support.

Reasons for giving the Carbon Price an opportunity to work

10

The vast majority of Australians believe humans are contributing to climate change. Belief in human contribution is becoming stronger for over a quarter of Australians, while only 4% are more sure that humans are not impacting climate change.

Column1

15%

<1%9%

4%8%

37%

28%Humans ARE contributing and I am more certain

Humans ARE contributing and my belief is stable

Humans ARE contributing but I am less certain

Humans ARE NOT contributing and I am more certain

Humans ARE NOT contributing and my belief is stable

Humans ARE NOT contributing but I am less certain

Unsure

Base: Total n=1295Question: G1. “Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

72% of Australians believe humans are

contributing to climate change

whilst 13% deny that humans have any

impact.

Views towards climate change

11

18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+

8%15% 14% 11% 14% 12%

20% 21%16% 17%1%

0% 0%1%

0% 0%

0% 2%

0% 0%

4%8% 5% 6%

10%11% 21% 19%

3%1% 2%

1% 6%3%

4%3%

4% 7%

10%14%

6%9%

6%6%

8% 1%2%

8%40%

44%

44%36%

39%41%

37%37% 28%

28%

33%23%

34% 34% 30% 32%21% 25% 30%

22% Humans ARE contributing and I am more certain





Humans ARE NOT contributing but I am less cer-tain

Unsure

Belief in climate change is more prevalent among younger age groups with approximately 80% of all those under 50 believing that humans contribute to climate change.Views towards climate change

Base: Total n=1295Question: G1. “Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

12

Male Female

15% 15%

1% 0%

11%7%

5%3%

8%

7%

35%

38%

25%30%

Humans ARE contributing and I am more certain





Humans ARE NOT contributing but I am less certain

Unsure

Females are more likely to believe that humans are contributing to climate change.

Base: Total n=1295Question: G1. View towards climate change

Views towards climate change

13

Extreme weather in Australia and overseas

Information from scientists

Information in the media

Information from environmental groups

Information from friends or family

Information from work colleagues

Information from politicians

Other

Nothing

46%

43%

40%

23%

13%

7%

7%

8%

17%

Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change

Base: Total n=1295Question: G2. “Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change?”

About 20% of Australians can not recall their opinion on climate change being impacted at all in the last year. The most common sources of influence are extreme weather events and information from scientists.

14

Extreme weather in Australia and overseas

Information in the media

Information from scientists

Information from environmental groups

Information from friends or family

Information from work colleagues

Information from politicians

Other

Nothing

68%

52%

48%

34%

19%

12%

9%

6%

5%

19%

41%

12%

39%

15%

4%

15%

10%

21%

Humans ARE NOT contributing and I am more certainHumans ARE contributing and I am more certain

Among those Australians who are becoming more certain about the human contribution to climate change, the number one factor strengthening this view is extreme weather events.

Base: Humans are contributing and I am more certain n=369, Humans are not contributing and I am more certain n=47Question: G2. “Which have impacted on your opinion on climate change?”


Appendix

15

16

68%52% 48%

34%19% 12% 9% 6% 5%

57%43%

53%

25%15%

5% 6% 8% 8%

29% 32% 35%20% 16% 10% 8% 8% 8%

Humans ARE contributing and I have become more certain Humans ARE contributing and my belief has remained stable Humans ARE contributing but I have become less certain

Base: All respondents (n=1295)Question: G2 “Which of the following have impacted your opinion towards climate change?”Question: G1 “Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

Those who are more certain about humans contributing to climate change recall being impacted by extreme weather events and the media.


17

41% 39%

19% 15% 15%4%

12% 10%21%26% 31%

10% 8% 3% 8% 6%20%

34%27%11%

27%

0% 0%16%

0% 0%

35%

Humans ARE NOT contributing and I have become more certain Humans ARE NOT contributing and my belief has remained stableHumans ARE NOT contributing but I have become less certain

Base: All respondents (n=1295)Question: G2 “Which of the following have impacted your opinion towards climate change?”Question: G1 “Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

Of those who DON’T believe humans are contributing toclimate change, things heard through the media and environmental groups are cited as having the biggest impact on their views.


18 Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by location S6Question: G2 “Which of the following have impacted your opinion towards climate change?”

What impacts views on climate change

44% 41% 43%

25%

15%

7% 6%9%

17%

48%

35%39%

22%16%

7% 8% 6%

18%

46%

39%43%

20%

10%6% 9% 7%

19%

39%43%

46%

25%

9%6% 6% 8%

17%

52%

41%45%

16%

6% 7% 8% 9%12%

Sydney & ACT Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth


19 Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by Federal Election first preference G6 Question: G2 “Which of the following have impacted your opinion towards climate change?”

What impacts views on climate change

53%

46%

9%

48%

27%

16%

5% 5%12%

37% 37%

8%

37%

16%10%

5%9%

21%

63%

44%

9%

72%

42%

17%12%

7%4%

46% 45%

13%

54%

21% 18%

7%12% 12%

38%

15%

1%

33%

11% 9% 9%15% 16%

46%

38%

3%

31%

22%

14%9% 7%

22%

Australian Labor Party Liberal Party of Australia The Greens Independent Some other party Dont know/unsure


20 Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by Federal Election first preference G6 Question: G1 “Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

Dont know/unsure

Other

Liberal Party of Australia

Independent


The Greens

34%

17%

16%

29%

34%

44%

35%

39%

29%

45%

44%

47%

6%

11%

10%

5%

6%

4%

2%

5%

7%

5%

2%

1%

3%

12%

19%

9%

1%

1%

20%

16%

18%

7%

12%

3%

0%

1%

0%

0%I DO believe humans are contributing to climate change and I have become more certain about this in the past year

I DO believe humans are contributing to climate change and my belief has remained stable in the past year

I DO believe humans are contributing to climate change but I have become less cer-tain about it in the past year

I DO NOT believe humans are contributing to climate change and I have become more certain about this in the past year

I DO NOT believe humans are contributing to climate change and my belief has remained stable in the past year

I DO NOT believe humans are contributing to climate change but I have become less cer-tain about this in the past year

I am unsure whether humans are contribut -ing to climate change

Views on climate change

21 Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by location S6 Question: G1 “Which of the following best describes your view towards climate change?”

Sydney & ACT

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

29%

29%

25%

23%

24%

35%

33%

42%

39%

44%

7%

8%

7%

6%

10%

5%

3%

4%

5%

3%

11%

8%

5%

10%

8%

1%

1%

1%

0%

0%

13%

19%

16%

17%

10%I DO believe humans are contributing to climate change and I have become more certain about this in the past year

I DO believe humans are contributing to climate change and my belief has remained stable in the past year

I DO believe humans are contributing to climate change but I have become less cer-tain about it in the past year

I DO NOT believe humans are contributing to climate change and I have become more certain about this in the past year

I DO NOT believe humans are contributing to climate change and my belief has remained stable in the past year

I DO NOT believe humans are contributing to climate change but I have become less cer-tain about this in the past year

I am unsure whether humans are contribut -ing to climate change

Views on climate change

22Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by location S6 Question: G3 “The Carbon Price/tax has applied to major carbon polluting businesses since the middle of 2012. Which of the following comes closest to your view on how Australia should handle carbon pricing?”

Perth

Brisbane

Adelaide

Melbourne

Sydney & ACT

36%

38%

38%

39%

40%

46%

45%

44%

39%

43%

19%

18%

18%

22%

17%

The carbon price/tax should be given an opportunity to work

The carbon price/tax should be repealed (i.e. removed from law)

Unsure

Views on the Carbon Price - Uninformed

23Base: All respondents (n=1295) cut by Federal Election first preference G6 Question: G3 “The Carbon Price/tax has applied to major carbon polluting businesses since the middle of 2012. Which of the following comes closest to your view on how Australia should handle carbon pricing?”


The Greens

Dont know/unsure

Independent

Other

Liberal Party of Australia

72%

73%

33%

43%

23%

13%

12%

16%

29%

48%

62%

73%

16%

12%

38%

9%

15%

14%

The carbon price/tax should be given an opportunity to work

The carbon price/tax should be repealed (i.e. removed from law)

Unsure

Views on the Carbon Price - Uninformed

Authors: Amanda [email protected] Oliver [email protected] P: 61 2 9020 6735





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