WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

download WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

of 21

Transcript of WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    1/21

    Public Policy Polling3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: [email protected]

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 26, 2011

    INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

    IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS PLEASE [email protected] OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH

    OF THE PRESS RELEASE

    Tomblin and Ireland favorites to face off for WV governor

    Raleigh, N.C. Former West Virginia Secretary of State Betty Ireland and acting

    Governor Earl Ray Tomblin have healthy, almost 2:1 leads in their respective primariesto face off for governor this fall.

    In the Republican contest, Ireland has 31% support over businessman Bill Maloneys

    17%, with everyone else in single digits: State Sen. Clark Barnes and State Del. MitchCarmichael at 8%, district attorney Mark Sorsaia at 4%, former State Del. Larry Faircloth

    and professor Ralph William Clark at 2%, and former Westover mayor Cliff Ellis at 1%.

    The acting incumbent has an advantage in a crowded Democratic field. Tomblin leads

    with 32%, about the same as the next two candidates combined. Three candidatesState

    Treasurer John Perdue (17%), Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (16%), and State HouseSpeaker Rick Thompson (15%)are in a statistical tie for second. State Sen. Jeff

    Kessler (5%) and activist Arne Moltis (1%) bring up the rear. 14% are still undecided,

    with the primary less than three weeks away. Twice that many are undecided in the GOP

    race, more than enough to make a difference if they end up voting.

    In the GOP presidential race, Donald Trump has catapulted to a tie for the lead with Mike

    Huckabee, each at 24%, with Sarah Palin at 13%, Mitt Romney at 11%, Newt Gingrich at

    9%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann at 3%. When PPP last

    polled the race in January, Huckabee led Palin, Gingrich, and Romney, 28-23-17-10, soTrumps emergence has taken the greatest toll on Palin and Gingrich. Trump is the least

    liked of the candidates, and the main reason he is getting so much support is birtherism.

    Among the 53% who do not believe President Obama was born in the U.S., Trump topsHuckabee and Palin, 30-22-17, but among the 22% who do not buy into that theory,

    Huckabee leads 23-16-15 over Romney and Trump, with Palin in seventh at only 6%.

    PPP surveyed 590 likely West Virginia Democratic primary voters, with a +/-4.0%margin of error, and 274 likely Republican primary voters, with a +/-5.9% margin of

    error, from April 21st to 24th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign

    or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephoneinterviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the

    New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward

    Republican candidates.

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    2/21

    April 21-24, 2011Survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters

    April 21-24, 2011Survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    West Virginia Democratic Survey Results

    Q1 The Democratic candidates for Governor areJeff Kessler, Arne Moltis, John Perdue, NatalieTennant, Rick Thompson, and Earl RayTomblin. If the primary was today, who wouldyou vote for?

    5%Jeff Kessler.....................................................

    1%Arne Moltis......................................................

    17%John Perdue...................................................

    16%Natalie Tennant...............................................

    15%Rick Thompson...............................................

    32%Earl Ray Tomblin.............................................

    14%Undecided.......................................................

    Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor EarlRay Tomblins job performance?

    58%Approve.................

    19%Disapprove............

    24%Not sure................

    Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof John Perdue?

    32%Favorable........................................................

    26%Unfavorable....................................................

    42%Not sure..........................................................

    Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Natalie Tennant?

    43%Favorable........................................................

    26%Unfavorable....................................................

    31%Not sure..........................................................

    Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Rick Thompson?

    32%Favorable........................................................

    23%Unfavorable....................................................

    46%Not sure..........................................................

    Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of BarackObamas job performance?

    42%Approve.................

    46%Disapprove............

    12%Not sure................

    Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

    34%John McCain...................................................

    54%Barack Obama................................................

    12%Someone else/Don't remember......................

    Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhatconservative, or very conservative?

    15%Very liberal......................................................

    19%Somewhat liberal............................................

    37%Moderate.........................................................

    19%Somewhat conservative..................................

    10%Very conservative...........................................

    Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

    58%Woman...........................................................

    42%Man.................................................................Q10 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.

    95%White..............................................................

    5%Other...............................................................

    Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.

    14%18 to 29...........................................................

    20%30 to 45...........................................................

    40%46 to 65...........................................................

    26%Older than 65..................................................

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    3/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Obama Approval

    Approve Disapprove

    Not

    sure

    2011 Dem Gov

    Primary

    Jeff Kess ler

    Arne Moltis

    John Perdue

    Natalie Tennant

    Rick Thomps on

    Earl Ray Tomblin

    Undecided

    5% 8% 4% 4%

    1% 0% 1% -

    17% 16% 21% 9%

    16% 20% 11% 17%

    15% 15% 13% 23%

    31% 27% 36% 30%

    15% 14% 14% 18%

    Base

    Obama Approval

    Approve Disapprove

    Not

    sure

    Tomblin Approval

    Approve

    Disapprove

    Not sure

    58% 62% 56% 48%

    19% 16% 23% 13%

    24% 22% 21% 39%

    Base

    Obama Approval

    Approve Disapprove

    Not

    sure

    Perdue Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 38% 31% 16%

    27% 29% 26% 19%

    41% 33% 43% 66%

    Base

    Obama Approval

    Approve Disapprove

    Not

    sure

    Tennant Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    43% 57% 31% 37%

    27% 20% 35% 18%

    31% 24% 34% 45%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    4/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Obama Approval

    Approve Disapprove

    Not

    sure

    Thompson

    Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 39% 26% 28%

    23% 22% 26% 13%

    45% 38% 48% 60%

    Base

    2008 Vote

    John

    McCain

    Barack

    Obama

    Someone else/Don't

    remember

    2011 Dem Gov

    Primary

    Jeff Kess ler

    Arne M oltis

    John Perdue

    Natalie Te nnant

    Rick Thompson

    Earl Ray Tomblin

    Undecided

    5% 8% 5% -

    1% 1% - 2%

    17% 19% 17% 11%

    16% 11% 18% 16%

    15% 10% 18% 14%

    32% 37% 28% 34%

    14% 13% 14% 23%

    Base

    2008 Vote

    John

    McCain

    Barack

    Obama

    Someone else/Don't

    rememberTomblin Approval

    Approve

    Disapprove

    Not sure

    58% 57% 61% 45%

    19% 19% 19% 16%

    24% 24% 20% 39%

    Base

    2008 Vote

    John

    McCain

    Barack

    Obama

    Someone else/Don't

    rememberPerdue Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 31% 35% 20%

    26% 30% 26% 20%

    42% 40% 39% 60%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    5/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    2008 Vote

    John

    McCain

    Barack

    Obama

    Someone else/Don't

    remember

    Tennant Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    43% 33% 54% 21%

    26% 38% 20% 22%

    31% 30% 26% 56%

    Base

    2008 Vote

    John

    McCain

    Barack

    Obama

    Someone else/Don't

    remember

    Thompson

    Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 30% 34% 25%

    23% 24% 23% 18%

    46% 46% 43% 57%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    2011 Dem GovPrimary

    Jeff Kessler

    Arne Moltis

    John Perdue

    Natalie Tennant

    Rick Thomps on

    Earl Ray Tom blin

    Undecided

    5% 8% 7% 5% 5% 1%

    1% - - 1% 1% 2%

    17% 20% 12% 17% 24% 12%

    16% 22% 21% 15% 8% 13%

    15% 16% 18% 17% 7% 16%

    32% 25% 25% 32% 42% 36%

    14% 9% 18% 14% 13% 21%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    Tomblin Approval

    Approve

    Disapprove

    Not sure

    58% 64% 56% 57% 56% 57%

    19% 20% 22% 19% 19% 8%

    24% 16% 22% 23% 26% 34%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    6/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    Perdue Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 38% 33% 30% 38% 17%

    26% 28% 31% 24% 29% 22%

    42% 34% 36% 47% 34% 60%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    Tennant Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    43% 53% 56% 37% 40% 27%

    26% 26% 20% 28% 28% 30%

    31% 21% 23% 36% 32% 42%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    ThompsonFavorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 42% 36% 30% 22% 32%

    23% 25% 23% 23% 27% 10%

    46% 34% 41% 47% 50% 58%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    2011 Dem Gov

    Primary

    Jeff Kessler

    Arne Moltis

    John Perdue

    Natalie Tennant

    Rick Thomps on

    Earl Ray Tomblin

    Undecided

    5% 4% 7%

    1% 0% 1%

    17% 16% 19%

    16% 16% 15%

    15% 16% 13%

    32% 32% 31%

    14% 16% 12%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    7/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Tomblin Approval

    Approve

    Disapprove

    Not sure

    58% 58% 57%

    19% 14% 25%

    24% 27% 18%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Perdue Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 25% 42%

    26% 24% 30%

    42% 51% 28%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Tennant Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    43% 43% 42%

    26% 24% 30%

    31% 33% 28%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Thompson

    Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 29% 34%

    23% 19% 28%

    46% 52% 37%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    8/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Race

    White Other

    2011 Dem Gov

    Primary

    Jeff Kess ler

    Arne Moltis

    John Perdue

    Natalie Tennant

    Rick Thompson

    Earl Ray Tom blin

    Undecided

    5% 5% 6%

    1% 1% -

    17% 17% 18%

    16% 16% 16%

    15% 15% 5%

    32% 31% 34%

    14% 14% 20%

    Base

    Race

    White Other

    Tomblin Approval

    Approve

    Disapprove

    Not sure

    58% 58% 59%

    19% 19% 7%

    24% 23% 34%

    Base

    Race

    White Other

    Perdue Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 32% 24%

    26% 26% 33%

    42% 42% 42%

    Base

    Race

    White Other

    Tennant Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    43% 43% 40%

    26% 26% 29%

    31% 31% 31%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    9/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Race

    White Other

    Thompson

    Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 32% 27%

    23% 23% 22%

    46% 45% 51%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    2011 Dem Gov

    Primary

    Jeff Kessler

    Arne Moltis

    John Perdue

    Natalie Tennant

    Rick Thomps on

    Earl Ray Tomblin

    Undecided

    5% 5% 2% 7% 7%

    1% - - 0% 2%

    17% 23% 12% 16% 20%

    16% 13% 19% 14% 18%

    15% 13% 14% 18% 13%

    32% 38% 38% 30% 27%

    14% 10% 16% 15% 15%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Tomblin Approval

    Approve

    Disapprove

    Not sure

    58% 63% 59% 58% 54%

    19% 15% 19% 21% 17%

    24% 23% 22% 21% 29%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Perdue Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 35% 21% 30% 41%

    26% 20% 33% 29% 21%

    42% 45% 47% 40% 38%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    10/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Tennant Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    43% 40% 40% 42% 46%

    26% 25% 34% 26% 22%

    31% 35% 26% 32% 32%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Thompson

    Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    32% 40% 29% 33% 27%

    23% 20% 22% 24% 23%

    46% 40% 48% 43% 50%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    11/21

    April 21-24, 2011Survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    April 21-24, 2011Survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    West Virginia Survey Results

    Q1 The Republican candidates for Governor areClark Barnes, Mitch Carmichael, Ralph WilliamClark, Cliff Ellis, Larry Faircloth, Betty Ireland,Bill Maloney, and Mark Sorsaia. If the primarywas today, who would you vote for?

    8%Clark Barnes...................................................

    8%Mitch Carmichael............................................

    2%Ralph William Clark.........................................

    1%Cliff Ellis..........................................................

    2%Larry Faircloth.................................................

    31%Betty Ireland....................................................

    17%Bill Maloney....................................................

    4%Mark Sorsaia...................................................

    28%Undecided.......................................................

    Q2 If the Republican candidates for President in2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich,Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, TimPawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trumpwho would you vote for?

    3%Michele Bachmann.........................................

    9%Newt Gingrich.................................................

    24%Mike Huckabee...............................................

    13%Sarah Palin.....................................................

    3%Ron Paul.........................................................

    4%Tim Pawlenty..................................................

    11%Mitt Romney....................................................

    24%Donald Trump.................................................

    9%Someone else/Undecided...............................

    Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

    of Betty Ireland?

    47%Favorable........................................................

    15%Unfavorable....................................................

    38%Not sure..........................................................

    Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Bill Maloney?

    27%Favorable........................................................

    11%Unfavorable....................................................

    62%Not sure..........................................................

    Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Newt Gingrich?

    57%Favorable........................................................

    20%Unfavorable....................................................

    23%Not sure..........................................................

    Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Mike Huckabee?

    73%Favorable................

    10%Unfavorable............

    17%Not sure..................

    Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Sarah Palin?

    67%Favorable........................................................

    18%Unfavorable....................................................

    15%Not sure..........................................................

    Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Mitt Romney?

    51%Favorable........................................................

    23%Unfavorable....................................................

    26%Not sure..........................................................

    Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Donald Trump?

    47%Favorable........................................................

    33%Unfavorable....................................................

    20%Not sure..........................................................

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    12/21

    April 21-24, 2011Survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    April 21-24, 2011Survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Q10 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the

    United States?22%Yes..................................................................

    53%No...................................................................

    26%Not sure..........................................................

    Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhatconservative, or very conservative?

    2%Very liberal......................................................

    6%Somewhat liberal............................................

    18%Moderate.........................................................

    34%Somewhat conservative..................................

    41%Very conservative...........................................

    Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

    51%Woman...........................................................

    49%Man.................................................................

    Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.

    6%18 to 29...........................................................

    24%30 to 45...........................................................

    45%46 to 65...........................................................

    25%Older than 65..................................................

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    13/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Obama Born in

    US?

    Yes No

    Not

    sure

    2011 GOP Gov

    Primary

    Clark Barnes

    Mitch Carmichael

    Ralph William Clark

    Cliff Ellis

    Larry Faircloth

    Betty Ireland

    Bill Maloney

    Mark Sorsaia

    Undecided

    8% 7% 8% 10%

    8% 4% 9% 7%

    2% 2% 2% 1%

    1% - - 3%

    2% 3% 2% 1%

    31% 39% 25% 37%

    17% 13% 21% 12%

    4% - 6% 1 %

    28% 32% 26% 28%

    Base

    Obama Born in

    US?

    Yes No

    Not

    sure

    2012 GOP Pres

    Primary

    Michele Bachmann

    New t Gingrich

    Mike Huckabee

    Sarah Palin

    Ron Paul

    Tim Pawlenty

    Mitt Romne y

    Donald Trump

    Someone

    else/Undecided

    3% 7% 1% 5%

    9% 13% 8% 8%

    24% 23% 22% 28%

    13% 6% 17% 10%

    3% 2% 5% 1%

    4% 7% 3% 2%

    11% 16% 8% 13%

    24% 15% 30% 18%

    9% 12% 5% 15%

    Base

    Obama Born in

    US?

    Yes NoNot

    sure

    Ireland Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    47% 67% 43% 41%

    15% 13% 18% 9%

    38% 20% 39% 50%

    Base

    Obama Born in

    US?

    Yes NoNot

    sure

    Maloney Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    27% 29% 33% 14%

    11% 15% 13% 2%

    62% 56% 54% 84%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    14/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Obama Born in

    US?

    Yes No

    Not

    sure

    Gingrich Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    57% 59% 58% 53%

    20% 28% 21% 12%

    23% 13% 22% 35%

    Base

    Obama Born in

    US?

    Yes No

    Not

    sure

    Huckabee

    Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    73% 72% 76% 71%

    10% 20% 9% 2%

    17% 8% 15% 27%

    Base

    Obama Born in

    US?

    Yes NoNot

    sure

    Palin Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    67% 54% 77% 60%

    18% 34% 10% 20%

    15% 12% 13% 20%

    Base

    Obama Born in

    US?

    Yes NoNot

    sure

    Romney Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    51% 59% 49% 49%

    23% 27% 23% 19%

    26% 14% 28% 32%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    15/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Obama Born in

    US?

    Yes No

    Not

    sure

    Trump Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    47% 37% 56% 38%

    33% 56% 26% 29%

    20% 8% 18% 34%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    2011 GOP Gov

    Primary

    Clark Barnes

    Mitch Carmichael

    Ralph William Clar k

    Cliff Ellis

    Larry Faircloth

    Betty Ireland

    Bill Maloney

    Mark Sorsaia

    Undecided

    8% 16% 8% 1 3% 6% 8%

    8% - 4% 7% 11% 6%

    2% - - - 2% 3%

    1% - - - - 2%

    2% - 4% 1% 1% 2%

    31% 34% 35% 42% 36% 22%

    17% 28% 4% 15% 15% 20%

    4% - - 2% 1% 7%

    28% 22% 44% 18% 28% 30%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    2012 GOP Pre sPrimary

    Michele Bachmann

    Newt Gingrich

    Mike Huckabee

    Sarah Palin

    Ron Paul

    Tim Pawlenty

    Mitt Romney

    Donald Trum p

    Someone

    else/Undecided

    3% - 4% - 3% 5%

    9% 16% 12% 3% 15% 6%

    24% 11% 16% 23% 22% 28%

    13% 39% 24% 15% 9% 12%

    3% - - - 5% 4%

    4% - - 2% 2% 7%

    11% - 15% 11% 17% 7%

    24% 22% 20% 39% 18% 22%

    9% 11% 8% 7% 10% 9%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    Ireland Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    47% 61% 42% 48% 45% 49%

    15% 16% 16% 7% 22% 12%

    38% 22% 42% 45% 33% 39%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    16/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    Maloney Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    27% 11% 15% 19% 26% 34%

    11% 39% 16% 15% 2% 14%

    62% 50% 69% 66% 72% 52%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    Gingrich Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    57% 34% 30% 45% 60% 64%

    20% 39% 48% 33% 15% 14%

    23% 28% 22% 22% 25% 22%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    HuckabeeFavorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    73% 45% 59% 63% 70% 85%

    10% 16% 31% 12% 7% 7%

    17% 39% 10% 25% 23% 8%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    Palin Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    67% 72% 46% 66% 59% 78%

    18% 11% 39% 28% 20% 9%

    15% 16% 14% 7% 21% 13%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    17/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    Romney Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    51% 34% 37% 46% 53% 56%

    23% 39% 34% 28% 14% 25%

    26% 28% 28% 26% 33% 20%

    Base

    Ideology

    Very

    liberal

    Somewhat

    liberal Moderate

    Somewhat

    conservative

    Very

    conservative

    Trum p Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    47% 45% 34% 60% 39% 49%

    33% 39% 47% 27% 39% 29%

    20% 16% 18% 13% 21% 22%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    2011 GOP Gov

    Primary

    Clark Barnes

    Mitch Carmichael

    Ralph William Clark

    Cliff Ellis

    Larry Faircloth

    Betty Ireland

    Bill Maloney

    Mark Sorsaia

    Undecided

    8% 6% 11%

    8% 8% 7%

    2% 0% 3%

    1% - 1%

    2% 2% 2%

    31% 29% 34%

    17% 17% 17%

    4% 5% 2%

    28% 32% 23%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    2012 GOP Pres

    Primary

    Michele Bachmann

    New t Gingrich

    Mike Huckabee

    Sarah Palin

    Ron Paul

    Tim Pawlenty

    Mitt Romne y

    Donald Trump

    Someoneelse/Undecided

    3% 2% 5%

    9% 7% 12%

    24% 26% 21%

    13% 9% 17%

    3% 3% 4%

    4% 3% 4%

    11% 14% 9%

    24% 25% 23%

    9% 11% 6%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    18/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Ireland Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    47% 45% 50%

    15% 12% 17%

    38% 43% 33%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Maloney Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    27% 24% 30%

    11% 10% 12%

    62% 66% 58%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Gingrich Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    57% 54% 60%

    20% 20% 21%

    23% 26% 20%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Huckabee

    Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    73% 76% 70%

    10% 7% 13%

    17% 17% 17%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    19/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Palin Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    67% 65% 70%

    18% 18% 17%

    15% 16% 13%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Romney Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    51% 55% 48%

    23% 16% 29%

    26% 29% 23%

    Base

    Gender

    Wom an Man

    Trump Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    47% 48% 46%

    33% 30% 37%

    20% 23% 17%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    2011 GOP Gov

    Primary

    Clark Barnes

    Mitch Carmichael

    Ralph William Clark

    Cliff Ellis

    Larry Faircloth

    Betty Ireland

    Bill Maloney

    Mark Sorsaia

    Undecided

    8% 11% 6% 9% 9%

    8% - 15% 7% 4%

    2% 11% - 1% 3%

    1% - 3% - -

    2% - - 2% 5%

    31% 44% 24% 31% 37%

    17% 11% 9% 23% 15%

    4% - 6% 4% 2%

    28% 22% 38% 24% 26%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    20/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    [email protected] / 888 621-6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    2012 GOP Pres

    Primary

    Michele Bachmann

    New t Gingrich

    Mike Huckabee

    Sarah Palin

    Ron Paul

    Tim Pawlenty

    Mitt Romne y

    Donald Trump

    Someone

    else/Undecided

    3% - - 6% 2%

    9% - 6% 8% 16%

    24% 22% 26% 22% 25%

    13% 11% 18% 12% 11%

    3% - 3% 5% 2%

    4% 11% 3% 3% 4%

    11% 22% 9% 12% 11%

    24% 33% 29% 21% 20%

    9% - 6% 11% 10%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Ireland Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    47% 56% 38% 49% 51%

    15% - 24% 13% 12%

    38% 44% 38% 37% 38%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Maloney Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    27% 44% 15% 31% 28%

    11% - 12% 15% 5%

    62% 56% 74% 54% 67%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Gingrich Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    57% 56% 50% 61% 55%

    20% 22% 21% 20% 20%

    23% 22% 29% 19% 25%

  • 8/7/2019 WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

    21/21

    April 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary votersApril 21-24, 2011survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    i f ti @ bli li lli / 888 621 6988

    3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

    i f ti @ bli li lli / 888 621 6988

    Crosstabs

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Huckabee

    Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    73% 67% 74% 74% 74%

    10% 11% 9% 9% 11%

    17% 22% 18% 17% 15%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Palin Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    67% 67% 71% 69% 62%

    18% 11% 15% 20% 18%

    15% 22% 15% 11% 20%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Romney Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    51% 67% 50% 51% 49%

    23% - 24% 24% 24%

    26% 33% 26% 24% 27%

    Base

    Age

    18 to

    29

    30 to

    45

    46 to

    65

    Older

    than 65

    Trump Favorability

    Favorable

    Unfavorable

    Not sure

    47% 56% 55% 48% 36%

    33% 33% 24% 35% 39%

    20% 11% 21% 17% 25%