WPD Presentation Population and Development with reference to the MDGs Presentati… · ·...
Transcript of WPD Presentation Population and Development with reference to the MDGs Presentati… · ·...
Population and Population and DevelopmentDevelopment
in Jamaica with reference in Jamaica with reference to the MDGSto the MDGS
PresenterPresenter
Mr. Easton WilliamsMr. Easton Williams
Population UnitPopulation Unit
Planning Institute of JamaicaPlanning Institute of Jamaica
June 14, 2009June 14, 2009
World Population DayWorld Population Day
General Perspectives on General Perspectives on Population and DevelopmentPopulation and Development
Countries are poor because their populations are growing too rapidly
(high fertility)
Policy Response:
Family Planning is the solution
General PerspectivesGeneral Perspectives
Countries are poor because they are underdeveloped
Policy Response:
Development is the solution(Popular slogan, ‘Development is the best
contraceptive’)
General Perspectives
Countries are poor because they are underdeveloped and their population
is growing too rapidly
Policy Response:
Implement policies for development and reduce population growth
Demographic Transition Demographic Transition ModelModel
Provides a general framework for
analyzing population change over time.
Developed countries have moved from high birth and deaths rates to low birth and death rates.
Developing countries are expected to make the same transition.
Developed Countries Demographic Transition Developed Countries Demographic Transition TrendsTrends
18501850--19501950
3540
12
25
1510
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1850s 1900s 1950s
Periods
Rate
s
CBR CDR
Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition ModelDeveloping CountriesDeveloping Countries
• In its simplest form, the model posits that poor countries will transit the following board stages:
(a) From high births rates and death rates with low population growth and low development
(b) Through declining birth and death rates with high population growth and moderate development
(c) To low birth and death rates with low population growth and developed country status.
JamaicaJamaica’’s Demographic Transitions Demographic Transition
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate
Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, various years
JamaicaJamaica’’s Demographic Transitions Demographic Transition
• Jamaica is currently at an intermediate stage in its demographic transition
• Population growth has been below 1.0 per cent since 1998
• Population growth rate is influenced by declining natural increase and high external migration.
• Fertility, Mortality rates and migration influence the age structure of the population
Population StructurePopulation Structure
• Population structure is usually classified into three main groups:
– Child Population (0-14 yrs)
– Working Age Population (15-64 yrs)
– Dependent Elderly Population (65+)
• Jamaica population structure is changing
• Changes being impacted mainly by lower fertility and mortality rates
Characteristics of a Population in Characteristics of a Population in TransitionTransition
• The child population is decreasing
• The working age and elderly population are increasing
• Mean household size is declining
• Total age dependency ratio is declining
• The increase in the working age population creates a ‘demographic bonus’ which is a window of opportunity for economic development.
Total Population of JamaicaTotal Population of Jamaica
Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1970
1991
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
Years
To
tal P
op
ula
tio
n
Total Population
Child Population of JamaicaChild Population of Jamaica19701970--20502050
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1970
1982
1991
2001
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Years
Ch
ild
Po
pu
latio
n
0-14 Age Group
Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)
Elderly Population of JamaicaElderly Population of Jamaica19701970--20502050
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1970
1982
1991
2001
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Years
Dep
en
den
t E
lderl
y P
op
ula
tio
n
65+
Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)
Working Age Population of JamaicaWorking Age Population of Jamaica19701970--20502050
0200,000400,000
600,000800,000
1,000,0001,200,0001,400,000
1,600,0001,800,0002,000,000
1970
1991
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
Years
Wo
rkin
g A
ge
Po
pu
lati
on
15-64
Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)
Age Structural Transition of Age Structural Transition of Population, JamaicaPopulation, Jamaica
19701970--20502050
Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1970
1982
1991
2001
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Years
Number of Persons
Child Population Working AgeDependent Ederly Total Population
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
2001 Male 2001 Female
Population Pyramid, 2001
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
2020 Male 2020 Female
Population Pyramid, 2020
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Male Female
Population Pyramid, 2050
(1) Population (1) Population and Economic and Economic GrowthGrowth
Does population Does population growth growth
undermines undermines economic growth economic growth
in Jamaica?in Jamaica?
Population and Economic GrowthPopulation and Economic Growth
• The debate at the global level is ongoing.
• Prior to the 1990s, data for some developing countries did not support the general position that high population growth correlates with low economic growth.
• However the global data, post 1990s, correlates good with high population growth and low economic growth.
• Jamaica’s experience, post 1990s, would suggest that population growth is not a real problem hindering economic growth.
Population and Economic GrowthPopulation and Economic Growth
Real GDP per capita and Population Growth Rate (1970Real GDP per capita and Population Growth Rate (1970--
2007)2007)
-9.0-8.0-7.0-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.013.0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Gro
wth
Rate
s
Per Capita Real GDP Grow th Rate Population Grow th Rate
Source: STATIN
2) Population and Poverty
Does population Does population growth and poverty growth and poverty
correlates?correlates?
MDG Goal:MDG Goal:
Eradicate Poverty Eradicate Poverty and extreme hunger and extreme hunger
Population and PovertyPopulation and Poverty
Prevalence of Absolute PovertyPrevalence of Absolute Poverty
• Despite the low levels of real GDP growth experienced over the last three decades, Jamaica has still managed to reduce the prevalence of absolute poverty.
• The eradication of absolute poverty is the first goals of the list of MDGs.
• Target is to half the proportion of people living below the poverty line between 1990 and 2015
• Jamaica has achieved this target since 2005
• In 1990 the population living below the poverty line was estimated at 28.4%. In 2007 this was reduced to 9.8%.
Population and PovertyPopulation and Poverty
Prevalence of Absolute PovertyPrevalence of Absolute Poverty
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Years
% P
rev
ale
nc
e o
f P
ov
ert
y
JamaicaSource: Jamaica Survey of Living conditions, 2000, 2007
Population and PovertyPopulation and Poverty
AbsoluteAbsolute Poverty Prevalence RatesPoverty Prevalence Rates, , 19901990--20082008
Population and PovertyPopulation and Poverty
Prevalence of Absolute Poverty by Regions, Prevalence of Absolute Poverty by Regions, 19901990--20082008
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.01
99
0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Years
% P
rev
ale
nc
e o
f P
ov
ert
y
KMA Other Towns Jamaica Rural Areas
Source: Jamaica Survey of Living conditions, 2000, 2007
Fertility and ContraceptionFertility and Contraception
FFertilityertility
• Jamaica fertility rate has been declining from as early as the late 1960s.
• Declining fertility rates are being impacted by increasing access to reproductive health services and other factors including education and labour force participation
Years Rates
1975 4.5
1983 3.5
1989 2.9
1990 2.8
1993 3.0
1997 2.8
2002 2.5
2010 2.2p
2015 2.1p
Source: Demographic statistics, STATIN, various years
Fertility and ContraceptionFertility and Contraception
Fertility Trends, 1975Fertility Trends, 1975--20152015Women 15Women 15--49 Years49 Years
Source: Reproductive Health Survey, NFPB
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Births per
1000
1975 1983 1989 1990 1993 1997 2002 2010 2015
Years
Fertility and ContraceptionFertility and Contraception
Adolescent Fertility Rates, 1989Adolescent Fertility Rates, 1989--20022002
102 107 112 79
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Births per
1000
1989 1993 1997 2002
Years
Source: Reproductive Health Survey, NFPB
Fertility and ContraceptionFertility and Contraception
• One of the targets of MDGs # 5: Universal Universal
Access to reproductive healthAccess to reproductive health
• Status of Target: On Track
• Indicators: a. Contraceptive Prevalence Rate
b. Unmet needs for family planning
Fertility and ContraceptionFertility and Contraception
Contraceptive PrevalenceContraceptive Prevalence
• Universal knowledge of at least one modern method of contraception.
• Contraceptive prevalence rate of near 70% of women, 15-49, in union.
• Unmet need for family planning declined to under 10% in 2002 from 16% in 1990.
Fertility and ContraceptionFertility and Contraception
Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Unmet Family Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Unmet Family Planning, 1989Planning, 1989--20022002
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1989 1993 1997 2002
CPR Unmet NeedsSource: RHS, National Family Planning Board
(4)Infant, (4)Infant, Child and Child and Maternal Maternal HealthHealth
MDG Goal:MDG Goal:Goal #4: Reduce Child Goal #4: Reduce Child MortalityMortality
Goal #5: Improve Goal #5: Improve Maternal HealthMaternal Health
Infant, Child and Maternal HealthInfant, Child and Maternal Health
Infant MortalityInfant Mortality
• The reduction of Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is another goal of the MDGs
• Target to reduce IMR by two-thirds by 2015
• IMR was at 24.5 in 1990 and 22.1 in 2000
Infant, Child and Maternal HealthInfant, Child and Maternal Health
Infant MortalityInfant Mortality
• Annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 1.0%.
• Annual rate of decline needs to be 6.5% to meet the MDG target by 2015
• Jamaica is far behind
Infant, Child and Maternal HealthInfant, Child and Maternal Health
Infant Mortality RatesInfant Mortality Rates
24.4 22.05
8.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
RATES
1990 2000 2015
YEAR
1990
2000
2015
Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, selected years
Infant, Child and Maternal HealthInfant, Child and Maternal Health
Child MortalityChild Mortality
• The reduction of Under-five mortality is another goal of the MDG
• Target includes reducing under-five mortality rate (U5MR) by two-thirds by 2015
Infant, Child and Maternal HealthInfant, Child and Maternal Health
Child MortalityChild Mortality
• The annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 1.3%
• To achieve target however, the annual rate of decline has to be 5.1%
• Jamaica is far behind
Infant, Child and Maternal HealthInfant, Child and Maternal Health
Child Mortality RateChild Mortality Rate
29.525.9
11.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
RATES
1990 2000 2015
YEAR
1990
2000
2015
Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, selected years
Infant, Child and Maternal HealthInfant, Child and Maternal Health
Maternal MortalityMaternal Mortality
• The reduction of Maternal Mortality is another goal of the MDGs
• Target is to reduce Maternal Mortality to two-thirds its 1990 level by 2015
Infant, Child and Maternal HealthInfant, Child and Maternal Health
Maternal MortalityMaternal Mortality
• Lack of up-to-date data on MMR
• Data for 1986-1987, shows that MMR is 120/100,000.
• More recent data shows MMR at only 94.8/100,000 in 2000
• To achieve this MDG target, MMR must be reduced to 30/100,000 by 2015
Infant, Child and Maternal HealthInfant, Child and Maternal Health
Maternal MortalityMaternal Mortality
• Annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 2.3%
• In order to achieve the target, annual rate of decline has to be 7.4%.
• Jamaica is far behind.
Summary Summary --JamaicaJamaica’’s Progress in the s Progress in the MDGsMDGs
• Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
(ACHIEVED)
• Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education
(ACHIEVED)
• Goal 3:Promote gender equality and empower women
(LAGGING)
• Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality(FAR BEHIND)
• Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health(FAR BEHIND)
• Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other disease
(ON TRACK)
• Goal 7:Ensure environmental sustainability(LAGGING)
• Goal 8:Develop a global partnership for development
SummarySummary-- JamaicaJamaica’’s Progress in the s Progress in the MDGsMDGs