Weekly Political Events Regarding the SPDC's Election (027-2010)
WPA's Weekly Political Brief
17
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief October 19, 2012
-
Upload
wilson-perkins-allen-opinion-research -
Category
News & Politics
-
view
205 -
download
0
Transcript of WPA's Weekly Political Brief
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief October 19, 2012
Page 2
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment
as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we will distribute these weekly data updates every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
• Romney vs. Obama
In addition, each week we will feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• What the Presidential Election can tell us about the expected gains and losses in the House.
• The unemployment rate in states that elected Republican Governors in 2010.
• Impressions of the candidates on important issues following the second Presidential debate.
• A look at the changes in drilling permits approved under the last three presidents.
• A comparison of the Reagan economic recovery to the Obama economic recovery.
• A look at how social media is becoming the dominant source of political news around the
nation.
Page 3
Weekly Summary
• Many people are wondering about the outcome of the race for a majority in the House of Representatives, but the
close Presidential election suggests that Republicans will maintain control. (pg. 8).
o In previous presidential election years, there have normally been small gains by either party, even in landslide
elections .
• The unemployment rate dropped an average of 1.1% in the 17 states that elected Republican Governors in 2010
(pg. 11).
o This outpaces the 8 states that elected Democratic Governors in 2010 by 0.3%.
• Mitt Romney was seen as the stronger candidate on a variety of issues following the second Presidential debate (pg.
13).
o Romney scored better than Obama on the Economy, Healthcare, Taxes, the Deficit and Leadership.
• Drilling permits became a large discussion point following the second Presidential debate, as the topic caused a
heated exchange between Romney and Obama (pg. 14).
o Comparing the last 3 presidents and their record on drilling permits shows that under Obama, approved
permits have dropped by 36% while they rose significantly under Clinton and Bush.
• Mitt Romney made a point to compare the Obama Recovery to the Reagan Recovery during Tuesday night’s debate
(pg. 15).
• A comparison of economic indicators of the recoveries under the two administrations shows that Reagan’s
recovery achieved significantly more positive results than Obama’s recovery.
• The 2008 Presidential election was originally considered the “Social Media” election, but a look at current trends
shows that 2012 is taking social media and politics to new heights. (pg. 16).
Page 4
Only 40% of Americans believe that the nation is headed in the right direction.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Month Ago One Year Ago
Right Direction 37% 19%
Wrong Track 57% 74%
29% 27% 31% 31%
28% 27%
17% 19%
31% 30% 31%
40%
47%
66% 64% 63% 66% 64%
77% 74%
61% 62% 63% 56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct-
10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
Direction of the Country
Right Direction Wrong Track
2010 Election
Page 5
President Obama’s job approval rating remains below 50%.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 49% 49%
Disapprove 48% 48%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
47% 46%
49% 49% 49% 49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
50% 49%
48% 48% 48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
$51,450
$141,312
$16,186,254,664,871
The National Debt increased by roughly $20 Billion since last week alone.
Source: USDebtclock.org and the CBO
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
Page 7
Democrats hold a slim one-point lead over Republicans on the Generic Congressional ballot with less than 3 weeks until the election.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 43% 41% 41% 43%
45% 46%
43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45% 41%
46% 43% 43% 43%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
Page 8
Source: WPA Analysis
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Pre
sid
en
t’s P
oliti
ca
l P
art
y C
on
gre
ssio
na
l S
ea
t G
ain
Incumbent President Vote Difference
Incumbent President Vote Difference & Seats Gained in Congress
1980
1972
1936
1964
1984
1956 1940
1996
1944
2004 1992
Correlation: 0.65
In previous Presidential Election years, House gains have typically been modest, even in landslide victories. With a very close 2012 Presidential race, there is a small likelihood that either party makes substantial gains.
Page 9
While President Obama’s economic approval has risen in recent weeks, it remains below 50% with only a few short weeks until the election.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
51%
46%
2010 Election
Page 10
After the omission of California’s jobless claims was corrected this week, there was a return to around the 18-month average of 388,000 jobless claims reported around the nation. While the drop below 8% unemployment originally seemed like a good sign for the economy, the fixing of California’s error brought back a stern sense of reality.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
125,000 =
Number of new
jobs needed to
keep pace with
population
growth
181,000
142,000 114,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
July August September
Jobs Created by Month
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
September 2012 7.8%
Page 11
The unemployment rate dropped an average of 1.1% in the 17 states that elected Republican Governors in 2010. This outpaces the 8 states that elected Democratic Governors in 2010 by 0.3%.
State
January
2011 August 2012
September
2012 Difference
Republican
Governors 8.6% 7.6% 7.5% -1.1%
Democratic
Governors 8.5% 7.9% 7.7% -0.8%
Florida 10.9% 8.8% 8.7% -2.2%
Colorado 8.8% 8.2% 8.0% -0.8%
Iowa 6.1% 5.5% 5.2% -0.9%
Nevada 13.8% 12.1% 11.8% -2.0%
Ohio 9.0% 7.2% 7.0% -2.0%
Pennsylvania 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% 0.2%
Wisconsin 7.7% 7.5% 7.3% -0.4%
Source: BLS
Page 12
With under a month until the election, Mitt Romney holds a lead over President Obama for the first time this year.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48% 49% 47%
47% 46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44% 46% 46% 45% 45% 47%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
Page 13
Mitt Romney’s performance in the second debate resulted in him being declared the better candidate on a number of issues, most notably on the economy, where he was ahead of Obama by 31% and 14% in CBS’s and CNN’s polls respectively.
65%
54% 49% 51%
59% 49%
1%
6%
5% 5%
5%
5%
34% 40%
46% 44% 36%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CBS - Better onthe Economy
CNN - Better onthe Economy
CNN - Better onHealthcare
CNN - Better onTaxes
CNN - Better onDeficit
CNN - StrongerLeadership
Stronger Candidate on the Issues Following Second Debate
Obama
Undecided
Romney
Source: CBS News and CNN Polls, October 17, 2012
Page 14
Granting drilling permits for energy exploration became a heated moment in this week’s Presidential Debate. A look at the records of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama shows that permit approvals have dropped dramatically under the Obama Administration.
58%
116%
-36% -50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Bill Clinton (FY 1992 v. FY 2000) George W. Bush (FY 2000 v. FY 2008) Barack Obama (FY 2008 v. FY 2011)
Change in Number Drilling Permits Approved During Last Three Presidencies
Source: Bureau of Land
Page 15
Mitt Romney made a point to compare the recovery results of the Reagan Administration to the results of the Obama Administration during the debate this week, prompting many to compare the two recoveries side-by-side.
18.5%
6.7%
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
Change in GDP Growth
Reagan Obama
4.3%
-4.8%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Change in Household Income
Reagan Obama
11%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Change in Payroll Jobs
Reagan Obama
-49%
11%
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
Change in Long-Term Unemployment
Reagan Obama
-8%
34%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
Change in Food Stamp Enrollment
Reagan Obama
15.2
39.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
Average Weeks of Unemployment
Reagan Obama
Source: Investor’s Business Daily
Page 16
While 2008 was originally thought to be the “Social Media” election, social media usage for the 2012 election has skyrocketed among all adults. Whether it’s promoting candidates, or seeking news, social media and the internet has become the go-to source for all things in the election.
Social Media 58%
Other Sources
42%
Source of Campaign News for 2012
Yes 53%
No 47%
Adults Fact-Checking Political Facts Online for 2012
Internet 80%
Other Sources
20%
Source of Election News in 2012
Social Media 40%
Other Sources
60%
Where Unsure Voters Will Go to Help Decision on Election Day
Source: Open-Site.org
Page 17
For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300
Matt Gammon Vice President
202.470.6300
