WPA's Weekly Political Brief

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief October 19, 2012

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment

as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we will distribute these weekly data updates every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

• Romney vs. Obama

In addition, each week we will feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• What the Presidential Election can tell us about the expected gains and losses in the House.

• The unemployment rate in states that elected Republican Governors in 2010.

• Impressions of the candidates on important issues following the second Presidential debate.

• A look at the changes in drilling permits approved under the last three presidents.

• A comparison of the Reagan economic recovery to the Obama economic recovery.

• A look at how social media is becoming the dominant source of political news around the

nation.

Weekly Summary

• Many people are wondering about the outcome of the race for a majority in the House of Representatives, but the

close Presidential election suggests that Republicans will maintain control. (pg. 8).

o In previous presidential election years, there have normally been small gains by either party, even in landslide

elections .

• The unemployment rate dropped an average of 1.1% in the 17 states that elected Republican Governors in 2010

(pg. 11).

o This outpaces the 8 states that elected Democratic Governors in 2010 by 0.3%.

• Mitt Romney was seen as the stronger candidate on a variety of issues following the second Presidential debate (pg.

13).

o Romney scored better than Obama on the Economy, Healthcare, Taxes, the Deficit and Leadership.

• Drilling permits became a large discussion point following the second Presidential debate, as the topic caused a

heated exchange between Romney and Obama (pg. 14).

o Comparing the last 3 presidents and their record on drilling permits shows that under Obama, approved

permits have dropped by 36% while they rose significantly under Clinton and Bush.

• Mitt Romney made a point to compare the Obama Recovery to the Reagan Recovery during Tuesday night’s debate

(pg. 15).

• A comparison of economic indicators of the recoveries under the two administrations shows that Reagan’s

recovery achieved significantly more positive results than Obama’s recovery.

• The 2008 Presidential election was originally considered the “Social Media” election, but a look at current trends

shows that 2012 is taking social media and politics to new heights. (pg. 16).

Only 40% of Americans believe that the nation is headed in the right direction.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 37% 19%

Wrong Track 57% 74%

29% 27% 31% 31%

28% 27%

17% 19%

31% 30% 31%

40%

47%

66% 64% 63% 66% 64%

77% 74%

61% 62% 63% 56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-1

0

Au

g-1

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Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

No

v-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

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Oct-

11

No

v-1

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De

c-1

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Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

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2

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y-1

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Jun

-12

Jul-1

2

Au

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2

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p-1

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Oct-

12

Direction of the Country

Right Direction Wrong Track

2010 Election

President Obama’s job approval rating remains below 50%.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 49% 49%

Disapprove 48% 48%

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49%

47% 46%

49% 49% 49% 49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 48%

50% 49%

48% 48% 48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

$51,450

$141,312

$16,186,254,664,871

The National Debt increased by roughly $20 Billion since last week alone.

Source: USDebtclock.org and the CBO

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

Democrats hold a slim one-point lead over Republicans on the Generic Congressional ballot with less than 3 weeks until the election.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43% 41% 41% 43%

45% 46%

43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45% 41%

46% 43% 43% 43%

44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

Source: WPA Analysis

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Pre

sid

en

t’s P

oliti

ca

l P

art

y C

on

gre

ssio

na

l S

ea

t G

ain

Incumbent President Vote Difference

Incumbent President Vote Difference & Seats Gained in Congress

1980

1972

1936

1964

1984

1956 1940

1996

1944

2004 1992

Correlation: 0.65

In previous Presidential Election years, House gains have typically been modest, even in landslide victories. With a very close 2012 Presidential race, there is a small likelihood that either party makes substantial gains.

While President Obama’s economic approval has risen in recent weeks, it remains below 50% with only a few short weeks until the election.

Source: Pollster.com

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

51%

46%

2010 Election

After the omission of California’s jobless claims was corrected this week, there was a return to around the 18-month average of 388,000 jobless claims reported around the nation. While the drop below 8% unemployment originally seemed like a good sign for the economy, the fixing of California’s error brought back a stern sense of reality.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

125,000 =

Number of new

jobs needed to

keep pace with

population

growth

181,000

142,000 114,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

July August September

Jobs Created by Month

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

September 2012 7.8%

The unemployment rate dropped an average of 1.1% in the 17 states that elected Republican Governors in 2010. This outpaces the 8 states that elected Democratic Governors in 2010 by 0.3%.

State

January

2011 August 2012

September

2012 Difference

Republican

Governors 8.6% 7.6% 7.5% -1.1%

Democratic

Governors 8.5% 7.9% 7.7% -0.8%

Florida 10.9% 8.8% 8.7% -2.2%

Colorado 8.8% 8.2% 8.0% -0.8%

Iowa 6.1% 5.5% 5.2% -0.9%

Nevada 13.8% 12.1% 11.8% -2.0%

Ohio 9.0% 7.2% 7.0% -2.0%

Pennsylvania 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% 0.2%

Wisconsin 7.7% 7.5% 7.3% -0.4%

Source: BLS

With under a month until the election, Mitt Romney holds a lead over President Obama for the first time this year.


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48% 49% 47%

47% 46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44% 46% 46% 45% 45% 47%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

Mitt Romney’s performance in the second debate resulted in him being declared the better candidate on a number of issues, most notably on the economy, where he was ahead of Obama by 31% and 14% in CBS’s and CNN’s polls respectively.

65%

54% 49% 51%

59% 49%

1%

6%

5% 5%

5%

5%

34% 40%

46% 44% 36%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CBS - Better onthe Economy

CNN - Better onthe Economy

CNN - Better onHealthcare

CNN - Better onTaxes

CNN - Better onDeficit

CNN - StrongerLeadership

Stronger Candidate on the Issues Following Second Debate

Obama

Undecided

Romney

Source: CBS News and CNN Polls, October 17, 2012

Granting drilling permits for energy exploration became a heated moment in this week’s Presidential Debate. A look at the records of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama shows that permit approvals have dropped dramatically under the Obama Administration.

58%

116%

-36% -50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

Bill Clinton (FY 1992 v. FY 2000) George W. Bush (FY 2000 v. FY 2008) Barack Obama (FY 2008 v. FY 2011)

Change in Number Drilling Permits Approved During Last Three Presidencies

Source: Bureau of Land

Mitt Romney made a point to compare the recovery results of the Reagan Administration to the results of the Obama Administration during the debate this week, prompting many to compare the two recoveries side-by-side.

18.5%

6.7%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

Change in GDP Growth

Reagan Obama

4.3%

-4.8%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Change in Household Income

Reagan Obama

11%

2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Change in Payroll Jobs

Reagan Obama

-49%

11%

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

Change in Long-Term Unemployment

Reagan Obama

-8%

34%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

Change in Food Stamp Enrollment

Reagan Obama

15.2

39.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

Average Weeks of Unemployment

Reagan Obama

Source: Investor’s Business Daily

While 2008 was originally thought to be the “Social Media” election, social media usage for the 2012 election has skyrocketed among all adults. Whether it’s promoting candidates, or seeking news, social media and the internet has become the go-to source for all things in the election.

Social Media 58%

Other Sources

42%

Source of Campaign News for 2012

Yes 53%

No 47%

Adults Fact-Checking Political Facts Online for 2012

Internet 80%

Other Sources

20%

Source of Election News in 2012

Social Media 40%

Other Sources

60%

Where Unsure Voters Will Go to Help Decision on Election Day

Source: Open-Site.org

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WPA's Weekly Political Brief

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