Kevin Fleming, GFZ, Potsdam

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 700342.

Enhancing Synergies for disaster PRevention in the EurOpean Union

WP3 Development of hazard

specific scenarios for RMS

ESPREssO Final Meeting Brussels – 19th October 2018

European Commission

The aims of WP3

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• The development of reference emergency management

scenarios related to the considered hazards and their

implications for the three ESPREssO challenges.

• Review and implement the existing Risk Management Simulator

(RMS) tool, developed in previous FP7 projects for use in WP1.

Rather than make use or adapt ‘realistic’ reference scenarios, e.g.,

Storm Lothar, Campi Flegrei, we chose to develop ‘imaginary’,

simplified, but still realistic scenarios.

Soon found that the SENSUM ‘game’ was not really appropriate

and so developed our own exercise series.

The tasks of WP3

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T3.1 Development of

hazard specific reference

scenarios according to the

project challenges

T3.2 Review and

implementation of existing

methodologies for

scenario development and

stakeholders knowledge

elicitation

T3.3 Compilation of a

scenario design toolbox

What was achieved

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The primary outcome of the work package was the development

of the Risk Assessment Model Simulation for Emergency

Training Exercise (RAMSETE) scenario training exercise OR

serious game.

As discussed, it was employed (three versions) during the think

tanks.

• Berlin Challenge 1 (October, 2017)

• Zurich Challenge 3 (January, 2018)

• Naples Challenge 2 (April, 2018)

Deliverables

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All deliverables are completed and forwarded to the EU.

• Deliverable D3.2 ‘Report on existing methodologies for scenario

development and stakeholder knowledge elicitation’ – Submitted

07.2018

Outlined each of the RAMSETE exercises that had been developed.

• Deliverable D3.3 ‘Scenario design toolbox’ – Submitted 08.2018

A more general document on the use, value and requirements to

undertake RAMSETE-like exercises.

• Deliverable D3.1 ‘Reference scenarios according to the project

challenges’ – Submitted 12.2017.

Introduced the scenarios that were (at that time) expected to be

employed.

RAMSETE serious game exercises

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• One issue discussed was the purpose of the game.

Was it ‘a warm up’ for the think tank afternoon sessions, or an

intrinsic part of answering our questions about the challenges.

• The answer, of course, is that it is both.

While some valuable observations and discussions arose

from the game play, the afternoon sessions became the focus

for gaining detailed insights into the challenges.

The difference between RAMSETE and many other serious game

exercises is that they are usually used for teaching and training.

RAMSETE, by contrast, is for information elicitation, in other

words as described by Jaime, ‘we learn from the participants’.

RAMSETE serious game exercises

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There are a number of commonalities between the different

versions of the RAMSETE game.

• Relatively small groups (4 to 6 players).

• Each player was assigned ‘a role’, with efforts to have it as close to

their professional background as possible.

• The scenarios were imaginary, but realistic. This was to consider

simplified examples where specific knowledge was not required.

• Budgets were used to force the participants to prioritize their decisions,

and various metrics as a measure of how the game was progressing.

• A table sheet was used as a visual reference for tracking the progress

of the game, and for following the actual development of the scenario.

• In each game, members of the consortium acted as stewards and

recorders who act to explain the game to the participants, arrange

materials, and record the outcomes and discussions.

The RAMSETE games

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RAMSETE I

October, 2017, Berlin Germany

RAMSETE II

January, 2018, Zurich, Switzerland

RAMSETE III

April, 2018, Naples, Italy

Challenge Propose ways to create more coherent

national and European strategies that treat

DRR and CCA in an integrated manner.

Address issues surrounding the effective

management of cross-border crises,

considering the local, national and

international levels.

Enhancing DRM capacity by identifying

and developing frameworks for bridging

gaps between the scientific and

legal/policy spheres with regards to DRM

and CCA at the local, national and

international levels.

Scenario

geographical

backdrop

The ‘European’ island state of Espressoland. The ‘European’ cross-border region of

Barristia, located between Macchiatania

and Lattestan.

The ‘European’ island state of

Espressoland.

Participants 5 – Scientific researchers in DRR and CCA,

ministries of the Interior and Environment, and

local government.

6 – Central and local government

representatives for each country, NGO,

European Union representative.

4 – Decision maker (political leader),

science advisor, civil protection,

government spokesperson.

General scenario

narrative

The aim was to maximize the security and well-

being of the population of Espressoland by

integrating DRM and CCA policies.

To implement optimal policies to allow the

roles to respond to a cross-border crisis,

and ensure the ongoing capacity of the

region’s towns and cities.

To maximize the capacity of Espressoland

to respond to an impending disaster in the

most effective and accurate manner, while

ensuring the popularity of the

government.

Metrics Shields: representing DRR capacity.

Leaves: representing CCA resilience.

Handshakes: reflects the social cohesion of the

island’s society.

Beans: currency of Espressoland.

Production capacity and vulnerability of

the cities and towns.

Beans: resources available for actions.

Trees: reflect the forecasting capacity.

Shields: evacuation capacity.

Medals: represents public approval.

Beans: currency of Espressoland.

The RAMSETE games

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RAMSETE I RAMSETE II

RAMSETE III

RAMSETE serious game exercises

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• Considering the reaction of the participants to the games,

which was generally quite positive, the ‘game’ sessions during

the think tanks are considered to have been very successful.

• The games will be available for download after some

adjustments from the ESPREssO website. A boxed and

professionally printed version of RAMSETE III will be soon

submitted to a games designer (before the end of the project).

• A commons licence will be used, allowing them to be

downloaded, modified and redistributed in an open, non-

commercial manner, with the source fully acknowledged.

Papers

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A number of papers are being developed now.

At the moment a manuscript related to the game (in general)

and one dealing with Think Tank 1 are being circulated.

Papers on Think Tanks 2 and 3 are also in preparation.

A GAR contribution dealing with the game has been

submitted.

THANKS

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Was VERY MUCH a group effort, with

many people from across the

consortium contributing to its

development.

MANY THANKS TO ALL . . .