World Wind Energy Association

April 2, 2013 World Wind Energy Association 1

Presentation

by

Dr. Anil Kane

President Emeritus

World Wind Energy Association

Chairman Emeritus

Indian Wind Energy Association

At

The 3rd Asia Energy Security Summit 2013

At Bang


The World Wind Energy Association


25 % of the People are in Darkness

Source: International Energy Agency


The fastest growing industry of the world today is the Wind Energy. It had grown at a compound rate of 23.6% for last 10 years. No industry in the history has grown at this rate. Various agencies have projected the demand by using various methods. The wind sector became a global job generator and has created 6,70,000 jobs worldwide. The wind sector represented in 2010 a turnover of 40 billion €.

“ The Contribution of Wind Energy in the Energy Mix of the World”


Installed Capacity 2010


Country-Wise Total Capacity installed


0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

16000001997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Installed Wind Capacity 1997 – 2010 (MW)

Projection up to 2020


Developed economies take lion’s

share in energy consumption

Source : International Energy Agency

Per capita electricity consumption

17,179

13,338

11,126

7,689

5,642

1,900631

Canada USA Australia France Russia China India

kW

h / y

ea

r


Key growth drivers for wind energy - I

Climate Change and

Global Warming

Aggressive global targets

Kyoto Protocol: CO2 emissions to reduce by 5.2% of 1990s levels by 2012

EU declaration: 20% from RE by 2020

US: 21 States with 10% to 20% RPS mandates

China RE law: 20% by 2020 from RE

India: 10 States with 2% to 10% RPO mandates

Zero carbon solution

Concern Demand Catalysts

Source : American Wind Energy Association BTM Consult ApS World Market Update 2006



Key growth drivers for wind energy - II

Energy Security

Hedge against geopolitical risks - local and secured supply

No risk of fuel price volatility

Socially, ecologically and economically sustainable growth

Local availability



Key growth drivers for wind energy - III


Increased Electricity Demand

Energy - key to economic growth in developing countries (India, China etc. require all sources quickly to bridge gap)

Wind’s global electricity generation contribution expected to increase from 0.82% in 2006 to 4.04% in 2016

Abundant resource




Key growth drivers for wind energy - IV

Cost competitiveness

and hedging

Improvement in yields (cost/ kWh)

Cost / kWh of generation: US$ 0.03 - 0.06

Wind Energy directly competing with conventional power

Frozen lifecycle power cost for utilities

Zero fuel cost



Though Wind Energy is a capital intensive proposition, you will see from the figure, the operating cost of wind is lower than any other method. Sometimes people think that nuclear is cheaper, but that is not the case. On the contrary, these figures regarding the operating cost of nuclear system will be much higher than shown here since the price of uranium also has skyrocketed like the oil price. While the only steady operating cost is wind since there is no raw material cost.

CURRENT OPERATING COSTS


1.822.13

3.69

1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Co

st in

cen

ts p

er k

ilow

att

ho

ur

NUCLEAR

POWER

COAL FIRED

PLANTS

NATURAL GAS WIND

CURRENT OPERATING COSTS


The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has predicted that the world electrical energy requirement will triple by 2050. The current electrical energy installation is around 3.6 million MW, which will become about 11 million MW. It is unthinkable to imagine this much quantity being produced by fossil fuel. What will happen to the green house gases (including carbon dioxide concentration) is no more a guess work. It will make the world unsuitable for life. We can keep these figures lower only by adopting 18th century life style. But this is not possible. If China and India start consuming per capita electrical energy, as much as what the US consumes, the figures are unbelievably large.


The realization through out the world has come that this Earth does not belongs to the present generation; it belongs to our children and we have borrowed it from them. It is our sacred duty that we return the earth in a better shape to our children than what we have received from our forefathers. The fossil fuels are finite and we must use them very judiciously instead of burning them off for generation of electrical energy. We must preserve them for high value added petrochemicals and other important materials. The basic definition of economics tells us “Economics is the science which deals with ends and scarce means which have alternate uses”. The fossil fuels are scarce and they have better alternate uses than burning them off for energy.


Another important thing which normally people do not realize is that with increase in the population of the world, the demand for food grains is also increasing. Consequently the demand for chemical fertilizers is also increasing. All the chemical fertilizers, through out the world, are produced by burning fossil fuels. If we exhaust fossil fuel for energy, how are we going to meet the increasing food demand for the inflating population? We will have to resort to natural organic fertilizers and preserve fossil fuels.

The recent studies carried out by the California Energy Commission (CEC) mandated with the task of periodically examining the cost of various electricity generation technologies have clearly indicated that most renewable technologies, even solar photovoltaic, will be able to generate electricity at a lower price than the nuclear power in 2018.


IOU – Investor-Owned Utility POU – Publicly-Owned Utility


Is the renewable energy capable of meeting this incredible demand of electrical energy? Intensive researches are going on in photovoltaic and its related fields. The prices of PV cells are slowly dropping, but still they are quite far from commercial viability without governmental supports. It may become possible to economically produce large scale electrical energy by PV within 45 years. The tidal energy has limitations. You need a particular geographic condition to have a tidal power plant. The only sizeable power plant working in France is at a place called La Rance. It produces 240 MW for more than 40 years very successfully. It is estimated that around 200,000 MW can be generated from various places known to have a conducive situation for tidal energy production around the world. The Government of Gujarat in India has embarked upon an ambitious project called “Kalpasar” where 5800 MW of electrical energy will be produced by tidal power.


EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWER

Europe

Source : Stanford Edu. - Cristina L. Archer



North America





Asia


EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWER Africa



Australia



South America


The study concludes that if only the areas having an annual average wind velocity grater than 7 m/se are taken into account, wind worldwide could produce approximately 72 trillion watt hours of electrical energy per year. This is equal to about 54,000 million tones of oil equivalent. Even if only 20% of this power is captured, it is more than the total energy requirement of the entire world for all purposes. If we consider just the electrical energy requirement of the entire world, this potential is seven times the world needs, which is 1.6 to 1.8 Trillion Watt hours.

If we take into consideration areas which have got lesser

than 7m/sec wind velocity, and the offshore potential, the figure will be astronomical.


While looking at the World map for the potential of wind energy, it is clear that very large land mass of the earth fall under uneconomical zone, having inadequate wind velocity for economic electricity production.

Necessity is the mother of invention. People around the world are

working on designs which can produce electricity economically even in these zones. Some such ideas are discussed here. They are; • Air Rotor System – Magenn • Wind Mills in the Sky (Autogyro) - USA • Wind Energy Marine Unit (WEMU) Being Developed in Russia • Ladder Mill (Kiteplanes) - Denmark • Multi-Rotor Shaft • Vertical Axis Turbine • Maglev Wind Turbine • Linear Motor Frame • Dual Rotor Design - Korea • Wind Lens Turbine


Air Rotor System - Magenn


Groups working in the US, Netherlands and Canada are readying to set up wind farms 9

kilometers up in the sky. This is where we have the so called jet stream, or corridors of high

velocity winds, which high altitude aircraft make use of while flying eastwards.

Wind Mills in the Sky

(Autogyro) - USA


Wind Energy Marine Unit (WEMU) Being Developed in Russia


LADDERMILL (KITEPLANES) - Denmark


Multi-rotor Shaft


Maglev Wind Turbine


Linear Motor Frame


Dual Rotor Design - Korea


Wind Lens Turbine

http://inhabitat.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2010/08/windlens-ed02.jpg


Power Amplified Upper Level Aerogenerator - PAULA


- To overcome fluctuation in wind power production on daily as well as seasonal basis, large quantity of electrical energy storage has become necessity. Considerable success has been reported. - It is necessary to make production of small wind turbines in mass so that the current exorbitant prices can be brought down to affordable levels If this happens, it is anticipated that every roof top will have a small wind turbine/PV hybrid system to meet domestic electrical demands. This is also a very big portion of electrical consumption.

Additional aspects needing attention


Recent developments have made it possible to store large scale, MW hours, electrical energy. This will enable

a) Storing energy in off peak time and supply during

peak demand periods.

b) Smooth load and grid stability control.

c) Frequency and voltage fluctuation control.

d) Grid reinforcement.


Advances in Technologies and work

on R & D Front


The commercial scale large storage equipment - 1 NAS Battery (Sodium Sulphur Batteries), Japan


NAS Battery (Sodium Sulphur Batteries), Japan


VANADIUM REDOX FLOW Batteries, Canada

The commercial scale large storage equipment - 3


The modern battery systems consists of Lead Acid

Nickel Cadmium

Nickel-Metal Hydride

Sodium-Nickel Chloride

Lithium-Ion, etc. &

VANADIUM REDOX FLOW Batteries

Sodium Sulphur Batteries (NAS) The specific storage capacity integrated by kWh per kg is given in the table.


Techno-economic parameters for Chemical Storage batteries

Technical parameter Lead acid Nickel

Cadmium Lithium Ion

Sodium

Sulphur

Sodium

nickel

chloride

battery

Zinc

bromine

Polysul

de-bromide

Vanadium

redox

Round-trip efficiency (%) 70-82 60-70 85-98 70-90 85-90 60-75 57-75 60-85

Self-discharge (% energy/day 0.033-0.3 0.067-0.6 0.1-0.3 0.05-20 15 0.24 - 0.2

Cycle lifetime (no.of cycles) 100-2,000 800-3,500 1,000-10,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 12,000-14,000

Expected lifetime (years) 3-20 5-20 5-15 5-15 10-14 5-10 10-15 5-15

Specific energy (watt-hour/kg) 30-50 50-75 75-200 150-240 100-120 30-50 10-50 10-30

Specific power (watt-hour/kg) 75-300 150-300 150-315 150-230 150-200 - - -

Energy density (watt-hour/litre) 50-80 60-150 200-500 150-250 150-180 30-60 16-60 16-33

Power density (watt/litre) 10-400 - - - 220-300 - - -

Cost

Power (S/kW) 175-600 150-1,500 175-4,000 150-3,000 150-300 175-2,500 330-2,500 175-1,500

Energy (S/kWh) 150-400 600-1,500 500-2,500 250-500 100-200 150-1,000 120-1,000 150-1,000

Balance of plant (S/kWh) 120-600 120-600 120-600 120-600 120-600 120-600 120-600 120-610

Operation and maintenance cost

(S/kW year) 1.8-52 6-32 12-30 23-61 23-61 15-47 18-96 24-65

Source: Energy Storage Technology Review by Kyie Bradbury, August 2010


In conclusion, the wind energy is progressing very well and is going definitely to come to the rescue of the mankind. In my opinion, this is the only source, which is in abundance and can be economically exploited without disturbing the balance of nature.


Thank You

World Wind Energy Association

Documents

Transcript of World Wind Energy Association