World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation KoikeMorris
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Paying for Comfortable Inaction:
Climate Change Adaptat ion forWater in Asia
Presentation by
Toshio Koike (UT) and Chris Morris (ADB)19 August 2008
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We know
• impacts from warming
now and in future
• vulnerable urban, rural and basin water
• water adaptation needs
• significant investment in knowledge, human capacityand infrastructure is needed
• continued climate change inaction will beuncomfortable for many
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We know
• impacts from warming
now and in future
• vulnerable urban, rural and basin water
• water adaptation needs
• significant investment in knowledge, human capacityand infrastructure is needed
• continued climate change inaction will beuncomfortable for many
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58 simulations b 14 models
19 simulations by 5 models
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Anomalies (%) ofthe global annualtime series
(1961 to 1990)
Changes in heavy precipitation frequencies >> Changes in precipitation totals
Observed trends for1951 to 2003 in the
contribution to totalannual precipitationfrom very wet days
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Spatial pattern of themonthly Palmer DroughtSeverity Index (PDSI) for
1900 to 2002.
Areaaffected
by droughtincrease.
PDSI: a prominent index of drought and measures the cumulative deficit in surface land moisture by incorporating previous precipitation and estimates of moisture drawn into the
atmosphere into a hydrological accounting system.
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2XCo2
CO2
Heavier Rainfallin Smaller Area
Impacts of CO2 Increaseon the Water Cycle
Predicted by Models
Bigger Annual Variationof the Summer Rainfall in India
Heavy Rainfall around Japan(CCSR-NIES-JAMSTEC)
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Projected changes in
extremes
It is very likely that
heavy precipitationevents will continue tobecome more frequent.
IPCC AR4
It is likely that areaaffected by droughtincreases.
> 90%
> 67%
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Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.
> 90%
> 67%
> 67%
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Observed rate of sea level riseand estimated contributions from different sources.
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projected impact (Stern Report)
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Weknow
• impacts from warming
now and in future
• vulnerable urban, rural and basin water
• water adaptation needs
• significant investment in knowledge, human capacityand infrastructure is needed
• continued climate change inaction will beuncomfortable for many
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Asian urban water impactswater availability
• decrease of freshwateravailability affecting more thana billion in Asian people by2050
floods and drainage
• city sewer and drainage costsspiral due to changes inprecipitation patterns and sealevels rise
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flooding
• weather pattern changes increasing intensity of cyclonic type storms
• storm surges and higher sea levels threateningcoastal high risk basins Ganges-Brahmaputra,Changjiang, Mekong, Godavari
coastal communities
• coastal erosion threatening ecosystems andlivelihoods of Asian poor (archipelago Indonesia,Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines)
• Pacific islands, more than 50% of the population
live within 1.5 km of the shore.water availability
• changes in river runoff patterns affectinghydropower and water supply management
Asian basin water impacts
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Weknow
• impacts from warming
now and in future
• vulnerable urban, rural and basin water
• water adaptation needs
• significant investment in knowledge, human capacityand infrastructure is needed
• continued climate change inaction will beuncomfortable for many
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Adaptation is the ability of a system
to adjust to climate change (includingclimate variability and extremes) tomoderate potential damages, to takeadvantage of opportunities, or to copewith the consequences.
(Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007)
What is adaptation?
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water adaptation needs
knowledge and adaptation management
• develop knowledge on impacts and
vulnerabilities
• integrating adaptation into wider policies
• develop specific climate adaptationguidelines and tools for water planners andpractitioners
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Asian Coastal Mega-Cities
• ADB, WB & JBIC: joint sponsors of analysis• Manila, Bangkok, Kolkata, Ho Chi Minh City
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Data Integration and Analysis Systemfor creating knowledge to be shared throughout the world
for disseminating data and information that brings awareness
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Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
(GLOFs)
Source: Google Earth
Daichi/PRISM:
three independentoptical systems fordigital elevation data
Moraine topography
Daichi/PALSARSynthetic apertureRadar for identifyingwater surface
Lake area expantion
WEB-DHMWater and energybudget distributed
hydrological modelcoupled with climatemodels
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archipelagic island adaptation
ADB’s Mid-term Review of the Pacific Strategydevelopment towards a climate resilient future is anecessity in all Pacific Developing Member Countries
Pacific Small Islands Map example
b i d t ti
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basin adaptation:Citarum River Basin (Indonesia)
Climate Risk Assessment Process:
1. Identification of climate sensitivity
2. Climate modeling and projection of risks
3. Assessment of climate impact
and adaptation strategies:
i. Creation of hydroclimatologic scenarios
ii. Development of adaptation strategies thatcreate resilience to the expectedhydroclimatologic challenges
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water adaptation
• adaptation needs action across disciplines,sectors and organisations
• whilst mitigation is largely “in the air”,adaptation is mainly about “water”
• integrated Water Resources Management(IWRM) is a sensible framework for climatechange adaptation
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Weknow
• impacts from warming
now and in future
• vulnerable urban, rural and basin water
• water adaptation needs• significant investment in knowledge, human capacity
and infrastructure is needed
• continued climate change inaction will beuncomfortable for many
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adaptation investment needs
• more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is
required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change• poverty is the largest barrier to developing the capacity
to cope
• For a one meter sea level rise, global protection costscould amount to $1 trillion (Asia)
• ADB mini-Stern report ???? ERD
A WOW slide $$$
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financial mechanisms
ADB funds new Climate Change Fund initial funding of $40million growing………..
Countries investing………………..???????
Other Mechanisms:
Climate Investment Facility (CIF) expected start-up fund is$6.5 billion World Bank, Japan, UK and US,
Global Environment Facility (GEF) $280 million through:Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA) $50 millionLeast Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) $172.8 millionSpecial Climate Change Fund (SCCF) $74.6 million
Adaptation Fund $58 million
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is necessary to address current and
predicted impacts resulting from the
warming which is already unavoidable
due to past emissions
Investment in Adaptation
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Weknow
• impacts from warmingnow and in future
• vulnerable urban, rural and basin water
• water adaptation needs• significant investment in knowledge, human capacity
and infrastructure is needed
• continued climate change inaction will beuncomfortable for many
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“There are risks and costs to a program of action. But they are far less than thelong-range risks and costs of comfortable
inaction.” -John F. Kennedy
water: starting to pay for
comfortable inaction
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G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit Leaders
DeclarationHokkaido Toyako, 8 July 2008
Recognizing that poorer countries are among the mostvulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, we will
continue and enhance cooperation with developingcountries, in particular least developed countries (LDCs) andsmall island developing states, in their efforts to adapt toclimate change including disaster risk reduction.
To address this issue, we commit to support urgent actionsto mainstream adaptation into broader development
strategies and encourage developing countries themselvesto integrate adaptation into their development policies. Theearly start of activities under the UNFCCC Adaptation Fundshould make an important contribution in this respect. We
call on the multilateral development banks and otherdevelopment agencies to support countries in this endeavor.
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in Asia: significant and immediate
investments are needed in resources andinfrastructure.
the costs to Asia, particularly to the poor,will be high. Inaction on adaptation will bevisible, and socially and politically
uncomfortable.
concluding remarks
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Thank You
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Web site: www.adb.org