World population, 1900-2000: poor share of total increased from 66% to 80% rich population doubled;...
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World population, 1900-2000: World population, 1900-2000: poor share of total increased from 66% to 80%poor share of total increased from 66% to 80%rich population doubled; poor almost fivefoldrich population doubled; poor almost fivefold
IraqIraq 5.2 5.2
23.6 23.6
Afghanistan 5.0 (1900) 27.8 (2000)Afghanistan 5.0 (1900) 27.8 (2000)
Demographic transitions compared, rich vs. poor Demographic transitions compared, rich vs. poor countries: annual growth rates, 1700-2000countries: annual growth rates, 1700-2000
Relation between TFR and eRelation between TFR and e00 25 less developed countries, 1950-55: 25 less developed countries, 1950-55:
great diversity great diversity Iraq, tfr= 7.2; e0=43Iraq, tfr= 7.2; e0=43
Afghanistan tfr=6.7; e0=31Afghanistan tfr=6.7; e0=31
Relation between TFR and eRelation between TFR and e00 25 LARGE less developed, 1995-25 LARGE less developed, 1995-2000: transition well advanced 2000: transition well advanced
Iraq, tfr= 5.4; e0=58Iraq, tfr= 5.4; e0=58Afghanistan tfr=6.0; e0=45Afghanistan tfr=6.0; e0=45
Strong inverse correlation between Strong inverse correlation between sewage system and 0-4 mortality in 55 sewage system and 0-4 mortality in 55
poor countries, 1980spoor countries, 1980s
Per capita GDP and ePer capita GDP and e00 in 25 less in 25 less developed countries, 1995-2000: big developed countries, 1995-2000: big increases at moderate levels of GDPincreases at moderate levels of GDP
DDT eradication halved the crude death rate DDT eradication halved the crude death rate in malarial zones of in malarial zones of Sri Lanka, 1930-1960Sri Lanka, 1930-1960
Burden of premature death and disease by Burden of premature death and disease by world region, 1998: inequalities are large world region, 1998: inequalities are large
and larger yet between continentsand larger yet between continents
Contraception was major factor in reducing Contraception was major factor in reducing fertility from natural levels, 31 countriesfertility from natural levels, 31 countries
Per capita GDP and TFR, 25 less developed Per capita GDP and TFR, 25 less developed countries, 1995-2000—weak correlationcountries, 1995-2000—weak correlation
Literacy and TFR, 25 less developed Literacy and TFR, 25 less developed countries, 1980s—strong correlationcountries, 1980s—strong correlation
Iraq, tfr= 5.4; illit: 30%Iraq, tfr= 5.4; illit: 30%
Afghanistan tfr=6.0;Afghanistan tfr=6.0; illit=70% illit=70%
Fertility of married Mexican women Fertility of married Mexican women by educational levels compared with by educational levels compared with
natural fertility, 1990natural fertility, 1990
The educational revolution will The educational revolution will precipitate further declines in precipitate further declines in Mexican fertility rates (1990)Mexican fertility rates (1990)
None
Primary
Secondary
Post
Decline in TFR by level of development and Decline in TFR by level of development and family planning, 1982-90: both requiredfamily planning, 1982-90: both required
Test Test of of unmet unmet need need thesisthesis
““Wanted” TFR vs. actual TFR, by region, Wanted” TFR vs. actual TFR, by region, late 1980s-early 1990slate 1980s-early 1990s
““Unwanted” children (%) vs. actual TFR, by Unwanted” children (%) vs. actual TFR, by region, late 1980s-early 1990sregion, late 1980s-early 1990s
No correlationNo correlation
% current contraceptors is strongly % current contraceptors is strongly correlated with actual TFR, in all regions correlated with actual TFR, in all regions
(late 1980s-early 1990s)(late 1980s-early 1990s)
% current contraceptors and “wanted” % current contraceptors and “wanted” fertility: also strongly correlated, in all fertility: also strongly correlated, in all
regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)
Availability of contraception is not enough:Availability of contraception is not enough:% current contraceptors is not strongly % current contraceptors is not strongly
correlated with unwanted children, in all correlated with unwanted children, in all regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)
China, age structure: 1950 & 2025China, age structure: 1950 & 2025the effects of fertility declinethe effects of fertility decline
India, age structure: 1950 & 2025India, age structure: 1950 & 2025the effects of partial fertility declinethe effects of partial fertility decline
Increase in population and per capita GNP:Increase in population and per capita GNP:27 less developed countries, 1970-9227 less developed countries, 1970-92
Increase in population 1950-70 & GNP pc:Increase in population 1950-70 & GNP pc:27 less developed countries, 1970-9227 less developed countries, 1970-92
Increase in population and per capita GNP:Increase in population and per capita GNP:27 less developed countries, 1950-9227 less developed countries, 1950-92
Asia: the boom in labor force growth is over: Asia: the boom in labor force growth is over: much GREATER 1965-95 than for coming much GREATER 1965-95 than for coming
30 years, except for Muslim countries30 years, except for Muslim countries
Increase in labor force, 1995-2025/1965-1995: Increase in labor force, 1995-2025/1965-1995: Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa, the boom is underway: Sub-Saharan Africa, the boom is underway: much GREATER IN COMING 30 years than much GREATER IN COMING 30 years than
for 1965-95for 1965-95
Gross investment and working age Gross investment and working age population selected countriespopulation selected countries
Malawi: rapid fertility decline (from 7.6 in Malawi: rapid fertility decline (from 7.6 in 1980 to 4.0) reduces schooling costs 50% by 1980 to 4.0) reduces schooling costs 50% by 2015—over modest fertility decline (tfr=5.5)2015—over modest fertility decline (tfr=5.5)
2005, tfr= 6.52005, tfr= 6.5