Dr. Tom Turrentine, Director

Dr. Gil Tal, PEV Use Patterns & Infrastructure Needs, China

Dr. Ken Kurani, Consumer Studies

Dahlia Garas, Program Director

Dr. Alan Jenn, PEV Regulations & Incentive Structures in USA

Dr. Scott Hardman, Europe PEV Markets

Dr. Angela Sanguinetti, Energy Feedback

The best news is that battery “cell” and “pack” prices have been dropping & forecast prices for 2020 & 2025 dropping as

well

McKinsey

• US Department of Energy predicts $125 kwh (pack) by 2022

• Tesla says $190 kWh in 2016 and $100 in 2020 (cells)

• GM said it paid $145 per kWh “cell” price for 2017 Bolt

• GM says Bolt will reach price parity in 2022.

• Renault says they will reach price parity 2020.

“Pack price”

WORLD PEV MARKET

The number of PEVs in the world in 2017 will likely go over 3 million (out of 1 billion vehicles) & over 1

million in sales (out of 90 million vehicles)2017

forecast

2017 forecast

First quarter 2017 global PEV sales by model

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16March

 YTD

Thousands

1st quarter (& March) 2017 global PEV sales by manufacturer

0

5

10

15

20

25

March1st Quarter

Thousands

And as a result, car makers are now in competition to make

“second generation” BEVs, 130-250 miles of range, Level 1-2

automation, AWD, high power charging

2018 Tesla Model

3

2017 BWM i32017 Chevrolet Bolt

2017 Volkswagen eGolf

238 miles range, $29,995 after tax credit

And second generation PHEVs

20-40 miles range, larger, SUV/Crossover type vehicles, more

power, AWD, & more automation

2017 Toyota Prius Prime

2017 Chevrolet

Volt

2017 Audi A3 eTron

2017 Volkswagen Passat

GTE

2017 Chrysler Pacifica

While the current PEV offerings emphasizes small sedans, the shift is to more SUV/Crossover

0

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Norway

Norway Sales Norway No. of Models

05101520253035404550

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usa

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Germany

Germany Sales Germany No. of Models

Growth in most markets has followed increase in number of models for sale

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60

Q1

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Q2

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14

Q2

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Q3

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14

Q4

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14

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20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

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Q2

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Tho

usa

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s

USA

USA Sales USA No. of Models

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30

35

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Netherlands

Netherlands Sales Netherlands No. of Models

There was 37% growth worldwide in 2016.

Ratio of BEVs to PHEVs varies, is shaped by policies, trending to PHEVs in several markets, with eVMT problems.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

12

20

14

20

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12

20

14

20

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20

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20

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20

12

20

14

20

16

BEVs

PHEVs

This slide is one year old, but still relevant. Small shiftsin PEV policy in Norway made more room for growth around PHEVs

in one car & older households

Source: Dr. Gil Tal, UC Davis

German car market responding to incentives & new PEV models

First quarter 2017

Sales growth in China continues, and always follows a

pattern for strong end-of-year sales (Chinese New Year or tax deadlines?)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Data Source: China Passenger Cars Association (CPCA)

China is moving further towards BEVs - 80% China PEV Quarterly Sales

64.6% 72.9% 67.5%71.9%

57.6%59.5% 54.1%

72.2%

62.6%

69.0%72.1%

86.6%

80.2%

35.4%27.1% 32.5%

28.1%

42.4%

40.5%

45.9%

27.8%

37.4%

31.0%

27.9%

13.4%

19.8%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3 2016-Q4 2017-Q1

THO

USA

ND

S

BEV PHEV

20152014 20172016

2016 PEV Sales Top 10 Cities in China: BEVs only in Beijing & registration restrictions are important

2016 PEV

SalesBEV

Manufacturer

PHEV Manufacturer

Beijing 63000 BAIC

Shanghai 41483 SAIC

Qingdao 27198

Shenzhen 25131 BYD BYD

Tianjin 21611

Taiyuan 17854

Guangzhou 16506 GAC

Hangzhou15033

Geely,

Zotye

Hefei 7805 JAC

Wuhu 7413 Chery

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

TH

OU

SA

ND

S

BEV PHEV

City with plate restriction

Data Source: WAYS, 2017 ww.way-s.cn

*

*

*

* ***

PEV MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN USA & CALIFORNIA

US PEV sales were flat in 2015, but pick up in 2016, and jumped in Dec. 2016, with steady growth 1st

Quarter 2017

1st quarter 2017

Dec 2016

US PEV Sales first four months 2017: solid sales all around, could hit 200,000 this year if Dec strong.

PEVs are almost 1% of registrations; what % of VMT?Source: EVvolumes.com

California is about 10-12% of total vehicle

sales in USA, is almost 50% of total US PEV

sales & fleet

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Q1

-13

Q2

-13

Q3

-13

Q4

-13

Q!-

14

Q2

-14

Q3

-14

Q4

_14

Q1

-15

Q2

-15

Q3

-15

Q4

-15

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Q1

-17

*

Chart Title

GA Rest UT CO CT VT OR WA HI DC CA

California almost 5% in this quarter, 8 states are at 1-2%, the rest of US at about .5%

%

Georgia

Wash. DC

Hawaii

5%

3%

Connecticut

California

Oregon

Vermont

Washington

Colorado

Utah

Rest of USA

2%

1%

4%

PHEV & BEV combined passed HEV 91% increase in 1st

quarter 2017 over 1st Quarter 2016 - source CNCDA /

4.8

6.16.8

6.35.8

4.7

0.5

1

1.21.6

1.4

1.70.5

0.4

1.3 1.6

1.7

1.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 17 YTD

Percent of Total California LDV Market

HEV

BEV

PHEV

%

4.4 %

2.7%

2.1%

1st quarter 2017

World electric vehicle capitals

24Analyzed at metro area level, 2015. Source: Hall, D., Moultak, M., Lutsey, N. (2017). Electric vehicle capitals of the world: Demonstrating the path to electric drive. http://www.theicct.org/EV-capitals-of-the-world