World Oil Outlook 2010 - Press Conference

8/8/2019 World Oil Outlook 2010 - Press Conference

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Press conference for theofficial release of the

World Oil Outlook 2010

Vienna, 4 November 2010

www.o ec.or

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 1


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Outline

e e e ce case assu p o s

Medium- and lon -term oil demand andsupply outlook

Downstream issues

Implications for CO2 emissions

a n messages



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Key Reference Case assumptions

the previous World Oil Outlook but remains fragile

Robust average global economic growth of 3.7% p.a.over the next decade, averages 3.5% 2010-2030

Oil price assumption based upon estimated cost of

are incorporated, otherwise only a continuation ofpast trends is assumed



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Energy use will continue to rise butenergy poverty will remain a major issue

World energy supply by

fuel type in the

oil remains key

Energy use per capita ineve op ng coun r es s ayswell below OECD levels



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World oil demand outlook in theReference Case (mb/d)

2010 2014 2020 2030OECD 45.4 45.3 44.7 43.1

Developing countries 35.4 39.6 46.3 56.8

Transition economies 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.6

Assumed rapid recovery means oil demand levels of

World 85.5 89.9 96.2 105.5

2007 are reached again by 2011

In 2014, demand reaches almost 90 mb/d, close to 1mb/d higher than in the previous outlook

By 2030, oil demand is 20 mb/d higher than today

OECD demand falls throughout the period to 2030


ransportat on sector s ey to o eman growt


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World oil supply outlook in theReference Case (mb/d)

2010 2014 2020 2030Non-OPEC 51.9 53.3 55.7 57.5

OPEC NGLs 4.7 5.9 7.2 8.9

OPEC crude 29.3 30.6 33.2 38.7 ver me um- erm, non- supp y con nues o r se

Slow rise in the demand for OPEC crude to 2014

Long-term: wide diversity of sources

By 2030, around 39 mb/d of OPEC crude is needed in theReference Case, a similar share of global supply to today



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Medium-term supply outlook:healthy levels of OPEC spare capacity



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Oil demand is subject to many uncertainties

Oil demand sub ect to man uncertainties: the econom

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

policies, technology8


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Demand uncertainty translates into a widerange of OPEC upstream investment needs



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Refining overcapacity will remain in themedium-term

Additional cumulative refinery crude runsRequired and potential*

*


Required: based on projected demand increases


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A regional shift in downstream is emerging

Crude distillation capacity requirements by period20102030



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CO2 emissions: the historicalres onsibilit of develo ed countries

Per capita CO2 emissions

Per capita emissions from

above the rest of the world

Cumulative CO2

emissions since 1900

from Annex I countries willcontinue to be far higher than


non-Annex I countries


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OPEC WOO 2010: Main messages (1)

Oil will remain the leading source in satisfying,

Resource base is sufficient and future supply willcome from a wide range of sources

Assumed economic recover means oil demand

levels of 2007 are reached again by 2011

comfortable levels

u ure res ap ng o e owns ream s expec e ,with an increasing focus on the Pacific basin



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OPEC WOO 2010: Main messages (2)

There remain huge uncertainties

conom c recovery un erway u r s s are s ewetowards the downside

any env ronmen a an energy-re a e po c es o eran unclear picture of their impact on future oil demand

y , eman uncer a n es s ow a erence o20 mb/d between higher and lower growth scenarios

,upstream investment needs between high and low

In climate change negotiations, historical



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www.opec.org


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