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EXPECTED RESULT 1

ENHANCED CAPABILITIES OF MEMBERS TO PRODUCE BETTER WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS

Strategic Thrust: Science and Technology Development and Implementation

Agenda Item 4.1XV-RA V/Doc. 4.1

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XV-RA V/Doc. 4.1WMO

Issues to be discussed:

• Improved quality, greater availability and more effective use of Numerical Weather Prediction products, including those of Ensemble Prediction Systems, in forecasting and warning services

• Increasing the number of new and advanced scientific tools in operational forecasting especially in warnings of hazards, for example through technology transfer and transition from research to operational forecasting

• Research and development activities leading to the next generation of prediction systems through advanced understanding and improved predicting skill for reduced detrimental effects of severe and other high-impact weather events on society

Action:

The Association is invited to adopt the draft texts in document 4.1 for inclusion in the general summary of XV-RA V

Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS)(Paragraphs 4.1.1 – 4.1.12)WMO

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

• Expand the Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP) to other Members in its full demonstration phase planned to commence in 1 November 2010

• Propose a “western window” to the RA V – SWFDP

Status of the GDPFS

• WMC Melbourne designated as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) for Seasonal to Inter-annual Forecasts

• Members to continue to provide status information on their NWP forecasting systems to the annual “ WMO Technical Progress Report on GDPFS including NWP Research”

GDPFS – Long-Range Forecasting

• Members to continue to contribute to the joint CBS-CCl efforts to ensure successful implementation and operation of Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)

Aeronautical Meteorology – aviation forecasting(Paragraphs 4.1.13 – 4.1.14)WMO

Concept of a “New Terminal Weather Forecast”

• Based on existing projects in a number of Members – aimed to harmonize these efforts and provide a standardized user interface

• Close collaboration with relevant study groups of ICAO and user representatives from the Air Traffic Management (ATM) and airline communities

ICAO Meteorological Warnings Study Group to establish a trial for the provision of advisories prepared by lead States

• Advisory messages will support the issuance of SIGMET for convection, turbulence and icing (similar to those on volcanic ash and tropical cyclones provided by the relevant VAAC and TCAC, respectively)

• Members to ensure full cooperation with relevant bodies in the Region, in operating the tests planned to take place in 2011

Marine Meteorological Forecasting(Paragraphs 4.1.15 – 4.1.20)WMO

Marine Meteorological Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning Services

• Members to improve the collection and dissemination through the GTS of wave, sea level and ocean surface meteorological observations to support the assessment of marine-related hazards via numerical modelling and verification

• Members to participate in and make maximum use of the wave forecast verification scheme and the wave EPS products

Coastal Inundation Forecasting

• Support the JCOMM/CHy project development for building improved risk assessment and operational forecasts and warnings capacity for coastal inundation

GOOS Regional Alliances (GRAs)

• Members to strengthen relationships with GRAs to participate in and benefit from ocean projects of relevance to NMHSs

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting(Paragraphs 4.1.21 – 4.1.28)WMO

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

• RSMCs and NMHSs to further exploit the use of ensemble prediction techniques in tropical cyclone forecasting

• Propose development of projects such as the NW Pacific Tropical Cyclones Ensemble Forecast Project and the Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project in other areas of the region

• Support for improving and enhancing tropical cyclone forecasting and warning capabilities of the RSMC Nadi

• RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (TCC) for the South Pacific and South-east Indian Ocean continue to support the implementation of the SWFDDP and the Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS)

• Make an e-version of the “Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting” available on the WMO Web site

• Approve amendments to the Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan and the updates of the Coordinated Technical Plan recommended by the RA V - TCC

Transition from Research and Development to Operations and Next Generation Systems for Weather Forecasting

(Paragraphs 4.1.29 – 4.1.38)WMO

Research Projects

• Support the incorporation of the GIFS-TIGGE products for tropical cyclones and possible heavy rainfall into the SWFDDP

• Members impacted by dust events to participate in the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) and develop similar capacity for other aerosols (e.g., pollen, smoke and volcanic ash)

• Members to participate in the Year of Tropical Convection research project

• Members with seasonal tropical cyclone forecast capabilities to actively participate in the development of a common set of metrics to evaluate the skill of seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts by contributing with their forecast products to the web site (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/SeasonalFcst.html )

• Members to participate in and support the THORPEX regional initiatives through contributions to the THORPEX Trust Fund

• Support the development of plans for a Warning Information System which will include a GIFS-TIGGE/TIGGE-LAM evaluation component and applications derived from existing efforts in the Region