WORLD FOOD SECURITY: NEW RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
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Transcript of WORLD FOOD SECURITY: NEW RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
WORLD FOOD SECURITY:
NEW RISKS AND
OPPORTUNITIES
Joachim von Braun
Ottawa, March 23, 2004
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2
2003/4 Strategic Issues facing IFPRI
1. Future food systems risks and challenges
2. Political system changes and governance problems
3. International trade and investment
4. Consumer and food industry-driven food systems
5. Deficiencies in pro-poor food and agricultural technology
6. Health crises, diet change, nutrition
7. Gender inequality and other discrimination
8. Pro-poor management of natural resources
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 3
Hunger in Developing World, with
and without China
920
817
780798
616 624 635663
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1979-81 1990-92 1995-1997 1999-2001
Millio
ns U
nd
ern
ou
rish
ed
Developing World
Developing w orld
w ithout China
Source: FAO, SOFI 2003
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 4
Chronic Undernutrition in Africa
75%
70%
33%
17%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
DR Congo
Burundi
Sub Saharan
Africa
Developing
World
% of undernourishment
Source: FAO SOFI 2003
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 5
Old risks and New risks
for food security
Old: Production, Stockholding,
Availability, Prices, “bad” Policies,
“Shocks”
New: Complex Vulnerabilities of the
Poor
THE RISK: Combinations of old and
new Risks
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 6
New risks
for food and nutrition security Conflicts: High correlation between conflict
and food insecurity.
HIV/AIDS: Affects 29.4 million people in SSA.
Natural Resources Degradation: Declining soil fertility, declining access to water - food and nutrition crisis?
Hidden Hunger: 3.5 billion in developing world are iron deficient. Towards “Harvest Plus”
Many of the poor more vulnerable
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 7
Old? World Grain Market:
Cereal Production 1960-2003
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
mil
lio
n t
on
s
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 8
Old? World Cereal Stocks, 1960-2003
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
millio
n t
on
s
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 9
Old? World Cereal Prices, 1998-2004
Rice International Price
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
U$S
/To
n
Maize and Wheat International Prices
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
U$S
/To
n
Maize
Wheat
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 10
Scenarios of IMPACT Model: 2050
Progressive Policy Actions Scenario:
New Focus on Agricultural Growth and Rural
Development
Policy Failure Scenario:
Trade and Political Conflict, Rise in
Protectionism Worldwide
Technology and Resource Management Failure
Scenario:
Adverse Technology/Natural Resource
Interactions
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 11
World Cereal Area
600
700
800
900
1997 2015 2030 2050
Millio
n h
aProgressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 12
World Cereal Production
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1997 2015 2030 2050
mil
lio
n m
tProgressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 13
Price of Maize
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
1997 2015 2030 2050
US
$/m
etr
ic t
on
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 14
Global per capita MEAT Demand
15
30
45
60
1997 2015 2030 2050
kg
/cap
ita
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 15
Number of Malnourished Children,
Developing World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1997 2015 2030 2050
Millio
n c
hild
ren
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management
Failure
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 16
Increased commitment to improve
food security
International Initiatives
• Millennium Development Goals
• World Bank Rural Strategy 2002
Regional Initiatives
• NEPAD
National Governments
• Most food insecure countries have initiated new policies to enhance food security in their countries
• But little change in their budgets
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 17
Trade: WTO negotiations
Subsidies in developed countries
High tariffs and other trade barriers
in developed and developing countries
Distort agricultural trade and hinder
progress on food security.
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 18
Visible Northern Trade Barriers
US and EU
Agricultural tariffs: 4-5 times those
on manufactured goods
Tariffs escalate on high value and
processed goods
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 19
Hidden Northern Trade Barriers
Sanitary, and phytosanitary,
environmental, and social
requirements can often act as non-
tariff barriers
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 20
Trade: How to re-start ?
Reform of WTO rules and northern
agricultural policies is not enough.
Developing-country governments
must also reform their own market
and trade policies.
Agriculture Exports are a dynamic force
for poverty reduction
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 21
IMPACT: Net Cereal Trade
Developing Countries
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
1997 2015 2030 2050
mil
lio
n m
t
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management
Failure
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 22
Success Stories
Small farmers in
• East Africa
• Central America
• Vietnam
have entered global fruit and vegetable
markets
Access to Supermarkets?
Less poverty and more staple food
production.
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 23
IFPRI’s Strategy
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 24
2003 global and country-level research
and outreach
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 25
IFPRI’s Food Policy Research Framework
Influence
on policies
Impact on
poor
people
Research
Capacity
strengthening
Policy
communication
Partners, CGIAR,
stakeholders
Policymakers,
media, opinion
leaders, and
IFPRI
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 26
Strategic Directions
Global Food
System
Functioning
Global and
National
Food System
Governance
Global Food
System
Innovations
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New ways of business: decentralized
IFPRI
San JoseSan JoseAddis AbabaAddis Ababa
NewNew DelhiDelhi
BeijingBeijing
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 28
Selected 2003/4 Research & Outreach
HarvestPlus (with CIAT etc.)
Program for Biosafety Systems
Pathways out of Poverty and Safety
Nets
Trade policy (global, regional, national)
IFPRI-ILRI Livestock market policy
NEPAD cooperation in Africa (MOU)
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 29
Facilitating Innovation and Quality
External Reviews of IFPRI
Ex-ante reviews of projects
Impact assessment research at IFPRI
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 30
Capacity Strengthening
General approach:
Training and capacity strengthening
integrated with our research
Exploring new types of activities:
Collaborative Masters Program agr. econ. in
Africa
CGIAR-Global Open University on
Agricultural and Food (planning)
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 31
Policy Communications
Policy Dialogues (e.g. food safety;
biotech)
All –Africa IFPRI 2020 Conference
in Uganda
China-India dialogue
Meeting policymakers one-on-one
Reaching out through media
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 32
Research Report
Food Policy Communication
Synthesizing IFPRI’s research
Expert
Insider
Interested
Layperson Press Release
Issue Brief
Food Policy Report
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 33
IFPRI-Canada Cooperation
IDRC helped established IFPRI 30
years ago
Canadian experts – IFPRI’s Board
of Trustees
Canadian Researchers – IFPRI staff