© World Energy Council 2013

World Energy Scenarios

Composing Energy Futures to 2050

Prof. Karl Rose, Senior Director, WEC London

© World Energy Council 2013

The scenarios are designed to

help a range of stakeholders to

address the “energy trilemma” –

of achieving environmental

sustainability, energy security and

energy equity.

WEC’s latest scenarios study:

► 2010-2013

Comprises of two scenarios

Stories quantified by Paul Scherrer

Institute (project partner)

© World Energy Council 2013

What are scenarios?

►portray a range of conceivable

outcomes and aid the

understanding of how different

factors can interact and shape

the future.

► identify robust trends; „what-if‟

assumptions about future.

Scenarios are not forecast.

- Plausible, pertinent, alternative stories of the future which:

Figure: The uncertainty funnel:

WEC Scenarios are explorative,

rather than normative

© World Energy Council 2013 4

Scenario Building Process

© World Energy Council 2013

Two Scenarios stories, exploratory, different and equally

probable rather than good and bad

Jazz: Trade based, consumer driven, focussed on access and

affordability. achieving growth through low cost energy.

Governments facilitate GHG actions.

Symphony: Government led, voter driven, focussed on environmental

goals and energy security, national and regional measures

to increase share of renewables in energy mix. Binding

international agreement on GHG emissions

WEC Scenarios

Deriving the scenario stories

5

© World Energy Council 2013 6

Jazz

Highlighted results:

The share of fossils fuels in the total primary energy supply: • In Jazz in 2050: 77%

• In Symphony in 2050: 59%

(cf. share of fossils in 2010: 80%)

Global final energy demand: • Jazz 2050: 629 EJ

• Symphony 2050: 491 EJ

(cf. the demand in 2010: 373 EJ)

Per capita electricity consumption will roughly double: • In Jazz by 2050: 5440kWh/y

• In Symphony by 2050: 4600kWh/y

(cf. consumption in 2010: 2580kWh/y)

The cumulative CO₂ emissions are for 2010 to 2050: • Jazz: 2000Gt

• Symphony: 1400Gt

(cf. roughly 1000Gt from the period 1900-2004, source: www.wri.org)

© World Energy Council 2013 7

Global total primary energy supply

JAZZ:

• Upstream liberalized;

• technology

development,

• supply surge/more

producers

• Coal remains dominant

in some regions

SYMPHONY:

• Tighter supply (lower

E&P)

• Higher infrastructure

costs

• Energy security drives

reduced fossil use

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony2050

EJ

/y

Renewables: output of electricity and heat; Biomass: primary supply incl. waste; Nuclear: 33% efficiency

Renewables

Hydro

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

© World Energy Council 2013 8

Electricity production by primary energy

JAZZ:

• coal: expected to

remain dominant

• gas: share increases

(esp. N. America),

• nuclear: mainly non-

OECD

SYMPHONY:

• coal: share drops, CCS

increasingly required

• nuclear: increasing; led

by governments

• Renewables: stable &

quicker transition

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony2050

TW

h/y

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Biomass (withCCS)Biomass

Hydro

Hydrogen

Nuclear

Gas

Gas (with CCS)

Oil

Coal

© World Energy Council 2013 9

Renewable electricity production

Jazz Symphony

Renewables undergo rapid

development, accounting for almost

50% of total electricity generation in

2050 (cf. 20% in 2010)

Hydro and wind electricity are

competitive. Renewables account for

roughly 30% of total electricity

generation by 2050.

© World Energy Council 2013 10

The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450 ppm target

without enormous economic costs

Resulting CO₂ emissions (black lines)

© World Energy Council 2013 © World Energy Council 2013

Results for Europe

© World Energy Council 2013 12

Total primary energy supply: Europe

JAZZ:

• Functioning carbon

markets (albeit low

prices).

• Biomass, wind and

solar play a key role

after 2030.

SYMPHONY:

• Energy policy

implemented via a

central mechanism

• specific technologies

chosen for investment

(incl. CC(U)S)

• The share of fossil

fuels drops to 52% in

2050.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

EJ/y

Renewables

Hydro

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

© World Energy Council 2013 13

Electricity production by primary energy: Europe

JAZZ:

• Gas and coal to remain

an integral part of the

electricity generation mix

• Share of wind to increase

SYMPHONY:

• Significant share of

nuclear in the electricity

generation mix

• Coal with CCS to emerge

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony2050

TW

h/y

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Biomass (with CCS)

Biomass

Hydro

Hydrogen

Nuclear

Gas

Gas (with CCS)

Oil

Coal

Coal (with CCS)

© World Energy Council 2013 14

Investment in Electricity Generation in Europe

Cumulative 2010-2050 in GW

0

1000

2000

3000

JAZZ SYMPHONY

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Biomass (with CCS)

Biomass

Hydropower

Hydrogen

Nuclear

Gas

Gas (with CCS)

Oil

Coal

Coal (with CCS)

Symphony cumul. undiscounted investment:

Jazz cumul. undiscounted investment:

4.4

3.3

trillion US$2010

trillion US$2010

JAZZ:

• Investment needs are

highest in wind, gas and

coal

SYMPHONY:

• Investment needs in

wind even higher than in

the Jazz scenario,

followed by gas and solar

© World Energy Council 2013 15

Investment needs: Europe

Total investment is roughly 3 trillion in Jazz and 4 trillion in Symphony in European

electricity generation, (2010-2050, USD2010, undiscounted)

© World Energy Council 2013

► Energy efficiency and energy conservation are absolutely

crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply

► Coal remains a dominant fuel (especially in China and

India), increasing challenges around CCS

► Natural gas will gain more importance in the energy share

► Oil will continue to be a dominant fuel in transport globally,

but e-mobility will be strong in Europe

► Nuclear is not a game changer

► Wind: great economic potential of wind power in both

scenarios

► Renewables: overall share will increase significantly

Energy mix in 2050