Radio Frequency Identification Austin Rutkowski Naomi Shaw Jenelle Meeker Maggie Kwong.
World Development Report 2019 - Devpolicy Blog from the ...devpolicy.org/presentations/2018...
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WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2019
THE CHANGING NATURE OF WORK
Michal Rutkowski, Senior Director
Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice
World Bank
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Estimates Of The Percentage Of Jobs At Risk From Automation Vary Widely
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Source: Authors’ analyses based on World Bank (2016); Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn (2016); David (2017); Hallward- Driemeier and Nayyar (2018)
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Technological Progress Can Expands Job Opportunities
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Source: Authors’ analyses.
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Technological Progress Can Expand Job Opportunities
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Lost employment in old
sectors
Remaining employment in
old sectors
New employment in new
sectors
Innovation
Sectors (ordered by susceptibility to automation)
Em
plo
ym
ent
in e
ach s
ecto
r
Auto
mati
on
Source: Authors’ analyses.
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What is changing?
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The Total Labor Force Has Been Increasing Across The Globe
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Source: Authors’ analyses based on World Bank’s World Development Indicators (database)
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High-skill workers are gaining…
low-skill workers are losing
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-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
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SouthernEurope
ContinentalEurope
NorthernEurope
CEE South CEEContinental
CEE North
Percentage point changes in share of workers in each job type, 1998-2014
Non-routine cognitive Routine cognitive Manual
Source: Ridao-Cano and Bodewig (2018)
Technological Change Is Making Jobs More Intensive In Non-routine Cognitive Tasks
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United States and Canada:4,500 Genetic Counselors
• Master’s degree in Genetics• Relevant certification• Empathy• Critical-thinking skills• Decision-making• Communicate complex
findings
India:4 million App Developers
• Degree in Computer Science• Experience in programming languages
and platforms• Keep up-to-date with new technologies• Work effectively as a team member• Analytical, communication and
interpersonal skills
China:100,000 Data Labelers
• Proficient in internet use, data processing, Microsoft suites
• Attention to detail• Willing to learn• Teamwork
Advanced and Socioemotional Skills are Becoming more Important
Source: Ormond et al. 2018; ifeng.com; Business Insider Intelligence, 2016; career websites.
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Recent Technological Advances Accelerate Firm Growth
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Source: Authors’ analyses based on Walmart Annual Reports, Statista.com, NetEase.com
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Technology Is Disrupting the Nature of Firms Posing New Policy Challenges
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Source: Author’s analysis based on data from Safaricom, KCB Bank Group, AirBnb, Marriot International Inc., Financial Times.
New Superstar Firms: digital platforms operating globally, existing in the cloud
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Technology Is Changing How People Work And The Terms On Which They Work
LESS standard long-term contract
MORE short-term work often via online work platforms
BUT the numbers are still small: total freelancer population is 84 million, or less than 3 percent of the global labor force
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Convergence in the nature of work?
11Source: John Hogg / World Bank
64.7% average informality
in emerging economies
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What can governments do?
What can
governments do?
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Three Areas For Policy Action:
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Source: Harmonized test scores are drawn from Patrinos and Angrist (2018)
Differences In Learning Are Dramatic
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SURVIVAL
Children who don’t survive don’t grow up
to become future workers
SCHOOL
Contribution of quality-
adjusted years of school to
productivity of future workers
HEALTH
Contribution of health
(average of adult survival
rate and stunting) to
productivity of future workers
Human Capital Index: Methodology
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The Human Capital Index
2018
Source: World Bank staff calculations
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CHILD WITH STUNTED BRAIN DEVELOPMENT HEALTHY, CARED FOR CHILD
The First 1,000 Days Lay A Lifelong
Foundation
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Skills Re-adjustment Is A Matter Of Lifelong Learning
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Source: Authors’ analyses.
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Labor market regulation
Social insurance (mandatory and
voluntary)
Stronger Social Protection: Protect People, Not Jobs
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Source: Authors’ analysis
Guaranteed social
minimum
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Little Expansion of Social Insurance Coverage over Time
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Source: Authors’ analysis based on World Bank pension database and World Development Indicators.
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Social Inclusion Is Costly
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Source: Authors’ analysis based on World Bank World Development Indicators, World Bank PovcalNet, and United Nations World Population Prospects.
Simulated cost of UBI for closing the poverty gap by country income group (% of GDP)
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Tax Revenues Have to Rise, Especially in Developing Economies
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Source: Authors’ analysis based on International Centre for Tax and Development (ICTD) and UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset 2017.
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http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2019
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