World Crude Production 2013 Without Shale Oil is Back to 2005 Levels

8/11/2019 World Crude Production 2013 Without Shale Oil is Back to 2005 Levels

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World crude production 2013 without shale oil is back to 2005 levels

Unnoticed by the mainstream media, US shale oil covers up a recent decline

of crude oil production of 15 mb!d in the rest of world "usin# data up to $ct

2013% &his means that without US shale oil the world would be in a deep oil

crisis similar to the decline phase 200'!0( when oil prices went up &he

decline comes from many countries but is also caused by )#hts over oil and

oil*related issues in +ran, ibya and other countries which can be seen on &-

every day


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.i# 1/ Worlds incremental crude oil production $ct 2013+ncremental production for each country is calculated as the dierencebetween total production and the minimum production between an 2001 and$ct 2013 &he sum of minima is the base production ountries which hadsubstantial chan#es in production appear as lar#e areas in the #raph 4ussiasupplied 6uite reliably the lar#est increment and the 7orth Sea "U8 and7orway% had the lar#est losses ountries which feature prominently are-ene9uela "low production in an 2003 due to a strike%, +ra6 "low production in:pril 2003 durin# the +ra6 war%, ibya "war in 2011%, +ran "sanctions% andSaudi :rabia "production increase since 2002 and swin# role%

;roduction is stacked from bottom as follows/

"1% countries with #rowin# production/ 8a9achstan "recently


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.i# 2/ US shale covers up recent decline in rest of world

&he world without shale oil declined after a recent peak in .eb 2012to anavera#e of (3A mb!d in 2013, incidentally the same avera#e seen for thewhole period since 2005 when crude production was (3' mb!d


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.i# 3/ :nnual crude oil production and US shale oil vs +:Bs WB$ pro?ections

&he rest of world continues on a bumpy crude oil production plateau $ildemand and supply pro?ections of the +nternational Bner#y :#ency in 200Aand 200C did not materiali9e $nly the 2010 WB$ came close but only due toUS shale oil which had not been predicted at the time to the eDtend itactually increased

ets have a look at the main players in the upper part of .i# 1


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to oset US shale oil +ra6 will have to return to $;Bs 6uota system +t willbe interestin# to watch at which production level that will be a#reed uponand whether +ra6 will adhere to it +n any case, all FB oil producers need tobalance their bud#ets as hi#hli#hted in this post/

1A!C!2013 $;Bs avera#e )scal break*even oil price increases by (G in 2013

.i# 5/ Fiddle Bast only

Hecline in Syria and Iemen was oset by increases in 8uwait, UB: and Jatar

+ra6 could not oset +rans production drops

4ussia and .SU


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.i# '/ Burasia

.ormer .SU countries/ :9erbai?an declines at 50 kb!d after its peak in 2010

8a9akhstan is


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.i# C/ &he 7orth Sea is in full decline:frica


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.i# E/ +ncremental production in :frica

+rrespective of what is happenin# in ibya, :frica peaked

atin :merica


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.i# 10/ atin :merica

>ra9il seems to have peaked while olombia slowly increased heavy oilproduction -ene9uelas data appear sustained as they have not beenupdated since an 2011

Summary

Since end 2010, the #roup of still #rowin# countries "=12 mb!d% cant osetdecline elsewhere "*2A mb!d%, #ivin# a resultin# decline of 12 mb!d or A00kb!d pa &his is mainly oil*#eolo#ically determined decline

$;B, which is usually called upon to provide for the dierence betweendemand and non*$;B production, has #ot its own problems "#eopoliticalfeed*back loops caused by peakin# oil production% and was not able to )llthat #ap @lobal crude oil without US shale oil declined by 15 mb!d since itsmost recent peak in .eb 2012

onclusion/


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While the mainstream media lulls the public into believin# that US shale oil isa revolution, peakin# oil production in many countries eats like a cancerthrou#h the oil supply system &he bi# problem is that more oil dependentinfrastructure is bein# built which will not be needed when US shale oil peaksand the underlyin# decline is revealed

World Crude Production 2013 Without Shale Oil is Back to 2005 Levels

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