World Climate Research Programme Climate Information for Decision Making

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World Climate Research World Climate Research Programme Programme Climate Information for Decision Climate Information for Decision Making Making Ghassem R. Asrar Director, WCRP

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World Climate Research Programme Climate Information for Decision Making. Ghassem R. Asrar Director, WCRP. Outline. Science Based Decision Making World Climate Conference-3: Climate info. for better future OceanObs09: Ocean observations for society - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of World Climate Research Programme Climate Information for Decision Making

World Climate Research ProgrammeWorld Climate Research Programme

Climate Information for Decision MakingClimate Information for Decision Making

Ghassem R. AsrarDirector, WCRP

OutlineOutline

• Science Based Decision Making– World Climate Conference-3: Climate info. for better future

– OceanObs09: Ocean observations for society– ICSU visioning: Environment & sustainable development

• WCRP Contribution– Seasonal Predictions

– Decadal Predictions

– Regional climate predictions

– Sea Level variability and change

Seasonal Climate PredictionSeasonal Climate Prediction

• WCRP, through its Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP), – Launched the Climate-system Historical Forecast Project

(CHFP) a multi-model and multi-institutional experimental framework for sub-seasonal to decadal complete physical climate system prediction

http://www.clivar.org/organization/wgsip/chfp/chfp.php

• CHFP will provide:- A baseline assessment of seasonal prediction capabilities using the best available models of the climate system and data for initialization

Seasonal Climate PredictionSeasonal Climate PredictionChallengesChallenges

• Quantifying Forecast Uncertainty Due to Uncertainty in Model Formulation– Multi-Model Helps, but Ad-Hoc

• Quantifying Forecast Uncertainty Due to Uncertainty in Observational Estimates– Initial Condition Problem

• Model Error– Need for International Coordinated Effort at Improving

Models (Multi-Model is Not an Excuse for Neglecting Model Improvement)

• Climate System Component Interactions– Coupled Ocean-Land-Ice-Atmosphere– External Forcing vs. Natural Variability

• Quantifying the Limit of Predictability

Seasonal Prediction-South AfricaSeasonal Prediction-South Africa

10%

Rainfall forecastissued in Dec. 2008by a multi-model operational

Seasonal Forecastby the South African

Weather Service.

Decadal Climate ExperimentsDecadal Climate Experiments

additional predictions Initialized in

‘01, ’02, ’03 … ‘09

100-yr

“control” & 1%

CO2

prediction with 2010 Pinatubo-

like eruption

alternative initialization strategies

atmos. chem

istry

&/or aerosols &/or

regional air quality prescribed SST time-

slices

exte

nd

ense

mble

s

from

O(3

) to

O(10)

mem

bers

hind

cast

s with

out

volca

noes

30-year hindcast and prediction ensembles: initialized 1960, 1980 &

2005

10-year hindcast & prediction ensembles: initialized 1960, 1965,

…, 2005

WCRP, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM)

- has developed the coupled-model intercomparison project (CMIP5) that coordinates the decadal predictability/prediction experiments

- will provide the foundation for the simulations to be assessed as part of the IPCC AR5

Decadal Climate PredictabilityDecadal Climate Predictability

Observed decadal climate variability in Pacific and Atlantic sectors (left) and first attempts to make decadal predictions (right)

Regional ClimateRegional Climate

The need for climate information at the regional-to-local scale is one of the central issues within the global change debate.

In 2008 WCRP established a Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling (TF-RCD), whose mandate is:– to summarize the shortcomings, difficulties and scientific basis

of existing downscaling methods to serve as guidance to the climate change assessment community;

– to develop a framework for evaluation and intercomparison of regional

downscaling techniques.

Regional ClimateRegional Climate

Uncertainty inUncertainty inregional climateregional climate

projectionprojection

Emis./Conc.Emis./Conc.(Multiple(Multiple

Scenarios)Scenarios)

AOGCM ConfigurationAOGCM Configuration(Multiple AOGCMs)(Multiple AOGCMs)

Internal variabilityInternal variability(Multiple realizations)(Multiple realizations)

RCD ConfigurationRCD Configuration(Multiple models)(Multiple models)

RCD approachRCD approach(Multiple RCD methods)(Multiple RCD methods)

Regional coverRegional cover(Multiple regions)(Multiple regions)

Schematic depiction of the primary uncertainties Schematic depiction of the primary uncertainties in regional climate change projections.in regional climate change projections.

Systematic ErrorsSystematic Errors(Model eval./impr.)(Model eval./impr.)

Regional Climate: Regional Climate: Africa - ExampleAfrica - Example

January-February-March mean precipitation for 1998-2008 period.

Regional Climate:Regional Climate: Africa - ExampleAfrica - Example

July-August-Septmeber mean precipitation for 1998-2008 period.

Sea-Level Variability and ChangeSea-Level Variability and Change

The main challenge is to address the uncertainties in the projection of future sea-level changes due to recently discovered processes in the Greenland and Antarctic regions.

The joint WCRP/IOC Task Group on Sea-Level Variability and Change (TF-RCD) was established with the mandate to:– Improve further our ability to monitor, explain and predict changes

in global and regional sea level and associated environmental factors.

– Make available this information for stakeholders and policy-makers

Climate variability affects the regional distribution of sea-level rise.

CSIRO - Australia

Sea-Level Variability and Change:Sea-Level Variability and Change: Regional ImpactsRegional Impacts

Sea-Level Variability and Change:Sea-Level Variability and Change:

Regional ImpactsRegional Impacts

2.35

2.30

2.00

2.25

2.20

2.05

2.15

2.10

Sea

Lev

el (

m)

Return Period (Years)

0.1 101 100

+0.08m

x3.1

Post-1950

Pre-1950

20th Century – Fort Denison• 20th Century sea-

level rise has already caused a significant increase in extreme events - three-fold increase post-1950.

• By 2100, 1 in 100 year events are projected to happen several times a year!

ConclusionsConclusionsWCRP will continue to:

– Provide Scientific Knowledge on climate variability and change.

– Facilitate research on climate projections and predictions on centuries, decades and seasons.

– Place a major emphasis on regional climate variability and change with special attention to extreme events.

– Support development and delivery of climate information for decision makers.

– Sponsor training and development of next generation of regional and global climate experts.