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A Strategy to Develop Agriculturein Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focusfor the World Bank

Kevin M. Cleaver

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WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 203

AFRICA TECHNICAL DEPARTMENT SERIES

A Strategy to Develop Agriculturein Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus

for the World Bank

Kevin M. Cleaver

The World BankWashington, D.C.

Copyright © 1993The International Bank for Reconstructionand Development/THE WORLD BANK

1818 H Street, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

All rights reservedManufactured in the United States of AmericaFirst printing April 1993Second printing August 1996

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ISSN: 0253-7494

Kevin M. Cleaver is Agricultural Division Chief in the Africa Technical Department of the World Bank.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Cleaver, Kevin M.A strategy to develop agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a

focus for the World Bank / Kevin M. Cleaverp. cm. - (World Bank technical paper, ISSN 0253-7494 ; no.

203. Africa Technical Department series)Includes bibliographical references.ISBN 0-8213-2420-91. Agriculture-Economic aspects-Africa, Sub-Saharan-Planning.

2. Agriculture and state-Africa, Sub-Saharan. 3. Agriculturalassistance-Africa, Sub-Saharan. 4. Agricultural developmentprojects-Africa, Sub-Saharan. 5. Sustainable agriculture-Africa,Sub-Saharan. I. Title. II. Series: World Bank technical paper;no. 203. III. Series: World Bank technical paper. Africa TechnicalDepartment series.HD2117.C56 1993 93-3624338.1'0967-dc2O CIP

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Foreword

This agricultural strategy paper provides a agriculture. There is of course a considerablevision for African governments, donor agencies diversity of constraints and opportunitiesand others working on African agriculture. between African countries, and differences inAfter twenty-five years of agricultural growth strengths among the donors. Each country willslower than population growth, and increasing require a medium- and long-term agriculturalproblems of food insecurity and environmental strategy adapted to its own circumstances. Eachdegradation, a reassessment of government and donor will have to identify how best to supportdonor agricultural strategies in Sub-Saharan these strategies. The five priorities identifiedAfrica is required. This document provides that here should all be found in each country'sassessment, identifying government and donor medium- and long-term agricultural develop-policies and investments in agriculture which ment plans. Donors and NGOs should collabo-have worked, and those which have not worked. rate in assisting African countries to implementFive major areas of activity have been identified these plans.which can significantly expand agricultural This paper was prepared by Kevin Cle',ver,growth, and address food security and natural formerly of the Agricultural Division, Tecl .jicalresource management objectives. These include: Department in the World Bank's Africa Region.(i) undertaking macro-economic and agricultural It is based on inputs from World Bank staff, thepolicy reform needed to make agriculture FAO, the Caisse Frangaise de Ddveloppement,profitable, (ii) developing and disseminating the French government's Ministry of Coopera-improved agricultural technology, (iii) em- tion, USAID, SIDA, the German KfW, Britishpowering farmers so that they can more widely ODA, IFPRI, SPAAR, World Wildlife Fund,participate in managing all aspects of agri- Global Coalition for Africa and a large numbercultural development, (iv) developing physical of African officials and academics. Of specialand social infrastructure in rural areas, and note is the contribution of Senegal's Ministry of(v) improving the management of natural Agriculture and the seventeen Ministers ofresources (soil, water, forest, wildlife, and bio- Agriculture forming the West African Minisersdiversity). Increased agricultural production is of Agriculture Initiative.needed urgently in most African countries, and Discussion of this report within Africa andthis can be stimulated by policy change among the donors will continue. Comments andcombined with agricultural extension. inputs from future reviewers should contribute

It is intended that this strategy inform future to the development of country agriculturalgovernment and donor interventions in African strategies.

~~~~~~entVicePrsdnAfrica RegionWorld Bank

February 5, 1993

v

Contents

1 Introduction and Summary ........... ....................... IThe Objectives for African Agriculture ............................ 2Constraints to Achievements of Objectives .......................... 5An Agricultural Strategy for Africa .............................. 7Short-Term vs. Long-Term Measures and Supply Response .... ......... 15A Focus for the World Bank .......... ....................... 15

PART l. The Setting

2 Recent Performance of African Agriculture ...................... 23Agricultural Growth . ..................................... 23Food Security and Poverty Alleviation ........................... 24Natural Resources and the Enviromnent .......................... 25Performance of World Bank Agricultural Projects ................... 27

3 Objectives for Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa .................. 31Growth of Production and Value Added .......................... 31Poverty Alleviation and Food Security ........................... 31Employment Creation . ..................................... 34Natural Resource Management ............................... 34Are the Objectives Feasible? ................................. 35

4 The Constraints to Agricultural Development In Sub-Sahaan Africa .... .. 37World Markets and Prices ................................... 37Improved Agricultural Technologies Have Not Come Fast Enough to Africa ... 39Providing Agricultural Technology in Africa: The Future ............... 43

PART II. The Strategy

5 Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Sector Farning,Agricultural Marketing, Processing and Crdit ..................... 49Creating an Enabling Policy Enviroment ......................... 49Credit and Other Pro-Active Assistance to the Private Sector ..... ........ 53Divestiture of Agricultural Parastatals ........................... 54Likely Private Sector Response ........... ..................... 56

6 Technology Advancement at the Farm nd Eterprbe Lovd .... ....... 61What Kind of Agricultural Technology for the Future? ..... ............ 61

vii

A Snar to Develop Agricultum in SubShamr Afm and a Focus for the WorldBak

Agricultural Research ..................................... 62Agricultural Extension ..................................... 65Livestock and Dairy .................. .................... 69Fisheries ............................................. 73Irrigation and Drainage ................. ................... 74Other Farm Inputs ....................................... 75

7 Development of Farmer Organizations; Empowerment of Rural Populations . 79Importance of Farmers' Groups and Associations ......... ........... 79Problems of the Past ...................................... 79The Future: Farmer Organizations as Autonomous Farmer-ManagedBusiness Enterprises ...................................... 80

8 Infrastructure and Town-Country Linkages: Developing Roads, WaterSupply, Education and Health in Rural Areas .. 83What is Rural Infrastructure? .. 83Transport .. 83Water Supply.. 85Rural Health and Education .. 85Food and Nutrition 86An Urban Strategy Which Promotes Agricultural Development . 87

9 Natural Resource Management .. 91The Problem .. 91Forests .. 91Fuelwood .. 95Natural Resource Management in Farming Areas .. 96Pastureland and Dryland Areas .. 97Infrastructure and Natural Resource Management .. 99Land Tenure .. 99Information Needs .. 100Financing .. 101

10 Common Strategic Themes and Expected Impact . .103New Themes .. 103Short-Term Compared with Long-Term Actions, and Supply Response .. 106Historic Growth Rate .. 110

PART 11M. The World Bank's Role

11 Areas of Focus for the Bank .. 115Policy Reform and Long-Term Agricultural Development Programs . .115Support for Agricultural Investment Projects .. 117Strengthening Agricultural Project Management and Capacity . .119The World Bank's Lending Program, 1992-1997 .. 119

viil

Contents

Tables1.1 World Bank Agriculture Operations in Africa ....................... 192.1 African Countries with High Agricultural Growth Rates ................ 232.2 High African Agricultural Growth Rates - Second Tier Countries .... ...... 242.3 Rate of Forest Destruction, 1980s .............................. 253.1 Sub-Saharan Africa: Population and Food Security, 1990-2020 .... ........ 324.1 Commodity Prices in Constant 1985 Dollars ....................... 384.2 Sub-Saharan Africa: Present and Projected Share of Primary

Agricultural Commodities .385.1 African Agricultural Growth Rates in Response to Adjustment .... ........ 5010.1 Elasticities of Agricultural Output with Respect to Factors of Production ... ... 10910.2 Historic Input-Output Linkages ................................ 11010.3 Prospective Input-Output Linkages ............................. 11111.1 World Bank Agriculture Operations ............................. 120

Figure1 Rainfall Deviation, 1900-87 .................................. 26

Boxes4.1 Women in Agriculture ..................................... 425.1 Agricultural Reform - Burkina Faso ............................. 425.2 Private Sector-Oriented Projects ............................... 575.3 Kenya's Horticultural Exports ................................ 586.1 SPAAR's Research Strategies ................................. 646.2 T&V in Kenya and Burkina Faso .............................. 686.3 T&V in COte d'Ivoire ..................................... 706.4 Animal Husbandry - Central African Republic ...................... 726.5 Pastoral Associations in the Sahel .............................. 736.6 Irrigation in Nigeria .......... ............................ 747.1 Cooperatives in Nigeria .................................... 818.1 Mozambique Food Security Report ............................. 889.1 A New Forest Policy in Cote d'Ivoire ........................... 959.2 Natural Resource Management in a Farming Area - Machakos, Kenya ... .... 979.3 Soil Conservation and Water Harvesting in Burkina Faso ............... 9810.1 Changing Themes for African Agricultural Development ................ 104

Annex TablesA-1 Population Growth Rates and Fertility Rates .123A-2 Agriculture's Share in GDP .124A-2A Agricultural Growth/Value Added .125A-3 Food Security ....................................... 127A-4 Crop Yields ....................................... 128A-5 Growth Rates of Cereal and Major Export Crop Yields ..... ............ 129A-6 Agricultural Exports - Value and Volume ........ ................. 130A-7 Producer Price Shares ..................................... 131A-8 Irrigation and Fertilizer Use . ................................ 132A-9 Land Use ...................................... 133A-10 Per Capita Arable Land .................................... 134

ix

A 3ub sU I Dwdo, Apiuhus a Sub-SJita Afra and a Fwus for the World Ban

A-1l Fores Ae and Defbratation ................................ 135A-12 Droughts . 136A-13 Soi Erosion in S d Countri of Sub-Sabaran Africa, 1970-86. 137A-14 Extont of Soil Degdation in Major Regions of the World, Early 1980s ... ... 138A-1S Evaluation of African Agricultural Research Institutions ....... ......... 139

I

Acknowledgments

In addition to the individuals and organizations thrugh their strategy work for the World Banklsted in the Foreword, the following Individuals as a whole. D. Benor has contributed throughhad an important input Into this document. his work on extension in Africa. Ms. CherylFrom the World Bank: Messrs. E. V. K. Powell typed the successive drafts and Ms.Jaycox, Ismail Serageldin, Michel Petit, G. Muriel Prah did the desktopping. From outsideSchreiber, J. Shivakumar, John Joyce, Thodore the World Bank, particularly useful contribu-Nkodo, Salah Darghouth, Chaim Helman, tions have been made by R. McNamara (GCA),Adrian Otten, Jack van Hoist Pellekaan, A. H. Hjort, P. Lucani (FAO), B. DioumRioust de Largentays, Pierre Landell-Mills, G. (Senegal), J. Diouf (Senegal), C. DelgadoDonovan, Michael Walshe, Akhtar Elahi, (FPRI), M. Yudelman (WWF), B. StonerCiude Heimo, Richard Manning, Noel (USAID), A. Vizzavona, 1. B. Veron, and A.Chbeuf, V. Venkatesan, Mathurin Gbetibouo, Seznec (Caisse Frangaise de D6veloppement),Chandra Pattanayak, Andrew Spurling, Jan M. de Verdiere (French Ministry of Coopera-Weljenberg, S. Ihillairajah, Simon Rietbergen, tion), Moctar H. Toure (SPAAR), I. GeremoDavid Groenfeldt, VishvaBindlish,JeanDelion, (SIDA), B. Grimwood (ODA), and Ministry ofRaymond Noronha, and Alan Yates. Peter Agriculture staff in Cameroon, Senegal, COteHazell and Gershon Fader have contributed d'Ivoire, Benin, and Guinea.

xi

Abstract

The World Bank document, Sub-Saharan development in Africa. Specific country andAfrica, From Crisis to Sustainable Growth, A investment examples are given to illustrateLong-Term Perspective Study, 1989 set out a successful efforts which should be replicatedstrategy for development in Sub-Saharan Africa elsewhere. Finally, the future focus of the Bankwhich is broadly accepted within Africa and by in helping to achieve the strategy is given.much of the international community. The The audience for the report is Africanpresent strategy document reviews in more government leaders involved in agriculture anddetail the performance of African agriculture, the broader African and international communityincluding policies and projects which have involved in African agriculture, including Worldworked, and those which have not worked. It Bank management and staff. The document hasproposes a set of five broad policy and been an input to the development of an agricul-investment priorities necessary for agricultural ture strategy for the World Bank as a whole.

xii

1. Introduction and Summary

The World Bank document, Sub-Saharan World Bank agricultural projects, and evaluationAfrica, From Crisis to Sustainable Growth, A of completed projects undertaken by otherLong-Term Perspective Study, 1989 set out a donors have also informed this strategy. Instrategy for development in Sub-Saharan Africa addition to this experience within Africa, therewhich is broadly accepted within Africa and by are changes in the rest of the world which aremuch of the international community. The important to incorporate in the strategy; notablypresent strategy document reviews in more in world commodity markets and in agriculturaldetail the performance of African agriculture, technology.including policies and projects which have A problem in defining an agriculturalworked, and those which have not worked. It strategy for Africa as a whole is the wideproposes a set of five broad policy and variation in the situation of sub-regions andinvestment priorities necessary for agricultural countries. For example, in Sudan, Ethiopia,development in Africa. Specific country and Mozambique, Somalia, Liberia, and Chad, theinvestment examples are given to illustrate most important actions for agriculture aresuccessful efforts which should be replicated outside of agriculture: reducing civil strife,elsewhere. Finally, the future focus of the Bank establishing sound principles of governance andin helping to achieve the strategy is given. pluralistic institutions, and generating rapid

The audience for the report is African increases in food production. Provision of farmgovernment leaders involved in agriculture, the inputs, rural transport, and improvedbroader African and international community agricultural policy are the way to quicklyinvolved in African agriculture, including World obtaining more food. Disaster relief willBank management and staff. The document has continue to be important. By comparison,been an input to the development of an macro-economic policy changes are of greatestagriculture strategy for the World Bank as a importance to stimulating agriculture in the CFAwhole. franc countries of Western and Central Africa.

The strategy is not a radical departure from Improved government management combinedwhat the Bank has begun to advocate in Africa with investment in infrastructure are of highestover the past three years. This period has been priority for agriculture in Zaire. Continuing toone of considerable experimentation and improve policy and technology transfer are mostresearch by African governments, NGOs, and important in better performing countries such asthe donors, including the World Bank. This Kenya, Botswana, Tanzania, and Nigeria.document sets out these findings and changes. The strategy paper sets out the common

Helping to inform the strategy are recent elements required for agricultural and ruralstudies regarding the impact of agricultural development in all countries of the continent.extension projects, improved frameworks for This strategy is comprehensive, discussing all ofagricultural research programs, results of the elements which need to be found in Africananalyses of Africa's forestry sector, better agricultural strategies. An effort was initiallyknowledge about the nexus between agricultural made to prioritize these elements. However, asdevelopment and population and environmental indicated above, the order of priorities will varyissues, some experience with rural infrastructure from one country to the next, so the broadinvestment, and results from countries in priorities are treated as of equal importance foradjustment. Ex-post evaluation of completed the continent as a whole. Priorities could also be

1

A Strategy to Develop Agrculture in Sub-Sahamn Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

arranged by sub-region, or by high and low practices. More emphasis will have to be put onagricultural potential countries. The various agricultural policy, public expenditure reviewsstratifications possible do not add much to the and projects which support comprehensiveanalysis. The next really useful level of African agricultural development strategies. Astratification for broad strategic purposes is the greater emphasis will also have to be placed oncountry level. Nevertheless, in discussions of creating African capacity and commitment toagricultural technology and natural resource manage agriculture in the private, public, andmanagement, the strategy varies considerably cooperative sectors. This will require morefor countries having different agro-ecological responsiveness to African initiatives; not merelysituations. These variations are discussed. pushing donor initiatives. Donor support should

Although many of the proposals in this paper be comprehensive, assisting the execution ofare continuations of the strategic focus in agricultural policy and investment programsagriculture suggested by the Bank in the last needed to achieve growth, food security, andthree years, important new directions are environmental objectives. This will mean moreproposed to encourage the private sector and to donor collaboration, and less competitionempower farmers to more fully participate in all between donors.aspects of agricultural activity and services.Expanded emphasis is placed on sound urban The Objectives for African Agriculturepolicy as an input to agricultural development,conservation of natural resources, investing in The average rate of agricultural growth inrural infrastructure, and focus on women Africa' has held at about 1.7 to 1.9 percent perfarmers. The building of African capacity to annum in real terms since 1965. Populationmanage these various activities, and the need to growth has increased, from about 2.7 percentimprove public expenditure programs, are per annum during 1965-1980, to about 3.1common elements which receive greater percent per annum since 1980. This decline inattention. More emphasis is placed on the per capita agricultural output is mirrored in aeconomic, social, and political context in which decline in per capita food production (by aboutagriculture operates in Africa. Good macro- 6 percent since the average during 1979 toeconomic policy is a necessary prerequisite for 1981). The rapid rate of increase of foodagricultural development. Government and imports (increasing at nearly 4 percent perpopular commitment to agricultural development annum since 1974) and food aid (increasing atare prerequisites. Political and social stability 7 percent per annum since 1974), is the result ofare also prerequisites. Healthier and better poor agricultural performance, combined witheducated people are better able to innovate in rapid population growth and expanding urbanagriculture. A distinction is made between populations unable to obtain sufficientactions which can have short-term payoff in agricultural produce from the countryside. Interms of expanded production, and those which some countries, increases in food imports alsowill take longer to implement and which will result from overvalued exchange rates whichhave a longer term impact. Many policy artificially cheapen food imports compared toimprovements, as well as agricultural extension local production. Despite the increase in foodwill have a short-term payoff, as well as a long- imports, food intake per person in Africa hasterm impact. General health and education been estimated at 87 percent of requirements inimprovements, land tenure reform, or larger the 1980s.scale irrigation investments have an impact in To this poor agricultural and food situationthe longer term. is added substantial evidence of environmental

To incorporate these strategic changes, the degradation, including rapid deforestation (3.7donors will have to change some of their million hectares lost per year), and loss of soil

2

Introduction and Summary

fertility. In these circumstances Bank-financed farming, means in large part helping them toagricultural projects have fared badly in Africa, become better farmers.with about one-half having failed to achieve There have been important objections raisedeconomic objectives according to ex-post to the viability of the 4 percent targetanalysis.2 Projects supported by other donors agricultural growth rate. One objection is thatare faring as badly, and in some cases worse. such growth is historically unprecedented, and

Most projections suggest only limited that there is no evidence in Africa that theimprovement in these trends; slightly increased policies and investments needed can be put inagricultural growth, and slightly decreased place to achieve it. This is especially the case inpopulation growth. The strategy proposed in this resource-constrained countries such as those indocument is an ambitious one, intended to the Sahel. In response, analysis presented in thissignificantly improve agricultural performance, document shows that ten African countriesin fact doubling agricultural growth to 4 percent already have met the target or have come closeper annum in each country. This was the target in the late 1980s and early 1990s, although withset in the Bank's report entitled Sub-Saharan considerable annual fluctuations. Some of theseAfrica from Crisis to Sustainable Growth, A are resource-poor: Botswana, Chad, andLong-Term Perspective Study, 1989. That report Comoros. Others achieving it or coming closeshowed that economic growth of at least 4 include Nigeria, Uganda, Benin, Kenya, andpercent per annum, which is a minimum Tanzania. Experience from other continentsobjective, will require agricultural growth at the suggests the feasibility of a sustained 4 percentsame level in most countries. This is because per annum agricultural growth rate. China'sother productive sectors are relatively small. agriculture, for example, grew at 6 percent inAgriculture provided 32 percent of Gross the 1980s. There are several reasons why highDomestic Product (GDP) on average in 1990. agricultural growth rates may be obtained inWithout agricultural growth at 4 percent per Sub-Saharan Africa. Agriculture here has aannum, the generally most competitive industrial lower base from which to grow-crop yields aresector (agro-industry) will not be supplied with incredibly low. Fertilizer use is a small fractionthe raw material to permit it to grow by its of fertilizer used in other countries. Irrigatedtarget rate of 5-7 percent per annum. Analysis area is about 20 percent of potential.undertaken for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) found Infrastructure development lags far behind thatthat agricultural growth is the most important of most other developing countries. Privatecontributor to the growth of manufacturing and investment has been negligible. All this providesservices. Agriculture is the major source of raw large scope for rapid growth, as Africanmaterial for industry, is a main purchaser of agriculture moves to a level comparable to thatsimple tools (farm implements), is a purchaser presently achieved in other developingof services (farm mechanics, transport), and countries.farmers are the main consumers of consumption A second objection to the ambitious growthgoods produced locally. Agricultural production target relates to the lack of markets. The Bank'swill remain the most important element for projections suggest world demand for mostaddressing food security and poverty, since most agricultural products produced in Africa willof the poor and the food-insecure are rural grow at from I to 3 percent per annum depend-people. Agriculture is the largest private sector ing on the commodity. Africa must thereforein Africa. Stimulating the private sector means increase its market share for these tradedstimulating agriculture and agriculturally-related commodities if its exports are to grow at 4industry. Improving the well-being of women, percent. Simply recapturing its lost market sharewhose principal economic activity remains would bring export growth up to the desired

3

A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

percent 4 percent. However, it will be easier to coincident with democratization, are all hopefulproduce import substitutes, in cereals, meat, improvements, consistent with expanded agricul-dairy products, fish, fruits and vegetables. tural output, being introduced into some AfricanSatisfying urban markets, and substituting for countries. In fact, the good agriculturalimports would provide the 4 percent agricultural performers in Africa have all instituted thesegrowth rate in many countries. But there is no improvements to some degree. Agriculturaldoubt that both export growth and import growth in African countries successfully adjust-substitution will require significant improve- ing economic policy is now running at about 3.8ments in efficiency, relative to that of competing percent per annum, compared to 0.5 percent percountries outside Africa. annum growth for non-adjusters. This document

There are reasons for hope on the efficiency demonstrates that most adjusting countries stillfront. On the one hand, it is expected that have more to do in terms of policy reform,growth of agricultural production outside Africa which could bring more of them up to the 4will slacken as the Green Revolution slows, as percent growth target. It is this experience ofthe scope for irrigation expansion shrinks, as the relative success in a few African countriesintensity of farm input use declines in response which is the most important contributor to theto the degradation of the natural resource base development of the strategy presented in thisin many areas of the world, and as farm document.subsidies decline. Already accustomed to a low Improvement of food security, defined as theinput and largely unsubsidized agriculture, ability of people to obtain adequate food at allAfrican agriculture's position in world markets times, is a separate objective from agriculturalmay improve. Projected declines in real wages growth. People can obtain food security byin much of Africa will help its competitive generating income outside agriculture withposition in agriculture. On the other hand, which to buy food. Conversely, rapid increasestechnology improvement leading to better and in food production may in some cases notcheaper products is likely to continue to be benefit the entire population, leaving somemuch further advanced in the industrial people without adequate food. For thesecountries and in Asia-Africa will have trouble reasons, the concept of food security is broaderkeeping up technologically. Hence, there is than that of food self-sufficiency at the nationaluncertainty, as well as opportunity. Responsive- level. But in Africa, where a large proportion ofness to domestic and external market demand people are dependent on agriculture, achieve-(which changes rapidly), development of new ment of food security in most countries will beproducts and processes, and acquisition of most enhanced with the achievement of hightechnological improvements are likely to be agricultural growth rates, and with widespreadcritical for Africa. participation of the rural population in such

The debate on the viability of a 4 percent growth. For these people to increase income, inagricultural growth target has been useful in most cases they will have to increase agri-identifying the magnitude of the changes cultural production. In addition, since localrequired to move African agriculture forward. transport and distribution constraints in manyMany countries will not achieve this target- African countries restrict the ability of manysome will. Changes in agricultural policy which rural people from accessing food markets, theencourage the private sector, efforts to improve most secure supply is their own production.technology generation and dissemination, Although agricultural growth is the mostimprovements in infrastructure, greater liberty vital element to assure food security in most offor farmers to participate in decisions regarding Africa, it is not sufficient in most countries.their production, greater efforts at environ- Where there is drought and civil strife, food aidmental protection, and institutional reform will continue to be important for both urban and

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rural populations. Poor people will need government intervention assisted by the donors,nutrition-improvement programs and income in marketing, agriculture processing, and inputenhancing programs such as public works supply. When marketing and input supplyprojects, to increase their food intake. systems do not work, and producer prices arePreparation for drought emergencies, and action artificially low relative to input costs, the risksin such emergencies as is now being provided in to farmers who are dependent on these systemsSouthern Africa and in Northeast Africa, will increase. Risk-averting farmers will not usecontinue to be important to assure food security these market-dependent methods in this situa-in transitory crises. These are additional reasons tion. The extensive African farming andwhy food security is a more useful goal than livestock systems which use much land, littlefood self-sufficiency. capital and labor, and which are less dependent

on markets, are rational farmer responses toConstraints to Achievement of Objectives these various natural and government-made

constraints.To determine what is required to achieve the These fundarnental problems suggest the first

objectives established for agriculture requires a of several bulwarks for the proposed agriculturelook at what has gone wrong in the past. strategy. This relates to the importance ofTechnology-based agriculture has not come to bringing the private sector into agriculturalAfrica on a significant scale. Most of the 1.7 to marketing, processing and input supply, as well1.9 percent per annum average agricultural as into other commercially- oriented agriculturegrowth that has occurred has been due to services. Governments, assisted by donors, haveexpansion of cultivated area, not yield increases. been failures at this activity, and experienceThere are many reasons for this. For one, there elsewhere suggests that the private sector can behas been little investment in irrigation, which more successful.was a major input into Asia's Green Revolution. There are additional reasons for an expandedIn addition, unlike Asia, there has been little private sector focus. World agricultural pricesdemand by farmers for yield-increasing agricul- are at historically low levels, with no sign thatture technologies. there will be significant improvement. In part

The reasons for these deficiencies are this is due to slow expected growth in worldcomplex. In some countries there has been, until demand for most agricultural products. Lowrecently, widespread land abundance combined world prices will translate into relatively lowwith labor and capital scarcity. Many of the new prices for African farmers, and for agriculturaltechnologies offered to African farmers inmarketing and processing enterprises. Thiscreased output per unit of land by requiring reflects increasing competition for limited worldadditional labor and capital input (in the form of markets. Since private enterprise is demon-purchased inputs and equipment). This was the strably and generally more effective at carryingreverse of what was needed from the perspec- on this competition, the future must includetive of the African farmer who had generally greater emphasis on the private sector.little capital and labor, but could open new land. Experience thus far with attracting significantThis situation was exacerbated in many African private sector investment in African agriculturecountries by government controls of agricultural and agriculturally related industry is poor. Moreprices, overvalued exchange rates, and heavy pro-active and far-ranging interventions aretaxation of agricultural exports, combined with likely to be necessary to stimulate the neededneglect of rural infrastructure, which reduced private sector investment. Macro-economicthe profitability of producing for the market. reform is necessary, but is by itself not going toThe scenario has been compounded by ill-fated be sufficient. A much wider policy agenda will

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have to be pursued, which is part of the content appalling health and education status of ruralof the new strategy. Furthermore, greater populations. Rapidly growing numbers of un-political and social stability will be required. healthy, uneducated rural people are unlikely to

The second bulwark of the new strategy be agricultural innovators. Expanded physicalwhich follows from the above analysis is a more and social infrastructure investment in ruraleffective approach to technology creation and areas, and in secondary towns, is therefore onetransfer. Government agricultural services element of the strategy.(research, extension, credit, and livestock In many African countries there is a move-services), most often donor-supported, have not ment toward greater democracy. Even wherehelped bring relevant agricultural and livestock one-party states still exist, there is some trendtechnology to Africa on a significant enough toward decentralization of decision-making toscale. This survey finds an extraordinary localities, to nongovernmental organizations anddeterioration of agricultural research and of to farmers groups. The initial experience withgovernment agricultural services generally. farmers groups has been positive, especially butDonors are still too competitive with one not exclusively where this democratization isanother, and not sufficiently concerned about under way. In addition, expansion of farmers'coordination of their efforts to be effective in groups can contribute to democratization.reversing this situation. There is a technological Farmers' groups are effective mechanisms inrevolution in agriculture occurring in industrial many cases for marketing and processingcountries, and in Asia and Latin America. The produce, for providing services to members,fruits of this revolution are not being captured and in defending the interests of farmers andby Africa to a significant enough extent. A new livestock owners. The fostering of and greaterapproach to technology generation and dissemi- collaboration with these groups in rural areasnation is required which greatly expands will have to be part of the agricultural strategy.investment in and the quality of agricultural Only in the last several years has it beenresearch, extension, livestock services, agri- realized that the natural resource base in manycultural education and training. Irrigation African countries is deteriorating sharply. Asdevelopment must have a larger role in this indicated previously, there is now widespreadtechnology strategy. evidence of serious soil erosion and degradation,

Neglect of roads connecting town to country, water pollution, siltation of irrigated areas,and the prevailing focus of government infra- pasture degradation, forest destruction andstructure investment in the mega-cities has, in disappearance of wildlands. The importance ofmany countries, cut the agricultural sector off the "nexus" between rapid population growth,from urban and export markets. It has also cut environmental degradation and agriculturalfarmers off from the source of improved inputs stagnation is now better understood. Futureand equipment, which is in the cities. It is from strategy must put much more emphasis onsecondary towns that most services are provided natural resource management to counter theseto farming communities, and where the imme- trends. This will include land tenure reformdiate collection markets for agricultural produce where necessary, wildlands and forestare usually found. Many African countries have conservation combined with better managementfocused so much of their resources on the large for sustainable production of various productsmega-cities that these essential physical links from these areas, better river basin manage-with agriculture have been neglected. The future ment, and better soil and water management bystrategy must correct this situation. Similarly, farmers. Soils in much of Africa have seriousthe focus of government health, education, and nutrient limitations, made worse by frequentlywater investment in the larger cities, neglecting erratic rainfall. When population densities wererural areas, has resulted in the frequently low and farmers could shift, these constraints

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could be circumvented to some degree. With development efforts in Kenya's horticulturegreater population density, good soil and water sector; in CMte d'Ivoire's tree crop sector; moremanagement becomes critical. recently in small-scale private agricultural trade

In addition to the preceding directions for the and processing in Ghana,3 Nigeria, Tanzanianew strategy, it has been realized that the and Uganda. It takes lessons from successfulessential role of women in all aspects of African cotton sector development in West Africaagriculture has been greatly underestimated. inspired by the French cotton company (CFDT).Women are often the main decision-makers on It refers to successful soil conservation projectsthe farm, and are important in natural resource in Burkina Faso, Rwanda, and Kenya; to pro-management as users of the soil, collectors of mising technology development in maize, dairyfuelwood and water. Their role in social production, fruit, vegetables, and cassava.development is important, since they are the Successful efforts at small-scale irrigation inmain contributors to child rearing and household Nigeria and Niger, park management in Kenyamaintenance. Women are still less than propor- and Zimbabwe, agricultural extension in Kenyationately represented in schools, especially rural and Burkina Faso are important guideposts forschools. Their special problems are often over- the strategy. Cooperative credit schemes whichlooked in agricultural research and extension appear to be working in Rwanda, Burundi,systems and their potential as private investors Benin, and Togo provide a model in the creditis often not exploited in rural-based credit and domain. Improved rural infrastructure in Togoinvestment schemes. A greater focus on women is an important model. Agricultural growth inis needed in each of the priority areas for countries undertaking structural adjustment isagricultural development. about 3.0 percent per annum greater than that in

Finally, the development of an African non-adjusting countries, suggesting directionscapacity to manage in each of the above areas for policy change. Unfortunately, the successhas been neglected in the past. Often, capacity stories are not numerous, and agriculture inproblems have been addressed by furnishing ex- adjusting countries is still not growing fastpatriate technical assistance resulting in the neg- enough. Some of the strategy therefore islect of the development of an indigenous capa- directed to resolving the numerous constraintscity to manage agriculture. Had this expatriate- cited here, based on experience outside ofled strategy worked, an argument could be made Africa, and on promising initiatives under wayfor retaining it. However, agriculture has but not yet proven.generally not taken off. Thus, much greateremphasis needs to be put on building African Creating An Appropriate Policy Environrentforcapacity to manage all aspects of agriculture, in Private SectorFarming, Agricultural Marketing,the public and private sectors. This should at the Processing and Creditsame time help generate greater commitment byAfricans to agricultural development. The pillar of a new strategy is to undertake

policy change necessary to make agriculture,An Agricultural Strategy for Africa agro-industry and related services profitable.

TJhis profitability will be the main element toThe agricultural strategy proposed for Africa stimulate the private sector (including small

is derived from the above analysis regarding farmers) to invest in agriculture, agro-industry,future objectives, past performance and con- livestock, marketing, input supply, and credit.straints. It is also derived from the several Important areas of policy and institutionalsuccess stories in African agriculture. This reform necessary to do this are: (a) price,document will illustrate successful private sector exchange rate, and market policy reform,

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generally in the direction of liberalization; must be largely carried out by the private(b) liberalization of the regulatory environment, sector. Direct government investments in thesefinancial market reform, development of private commercial ventures have been almost univer-and cooperative banking; (c) improvement of sally unsuccessful, and are unlikely to succeedthe legal establishment and the rule of law; now or in the future in the increasingly harsh(d) privatization and/or restructuring of commercial environment characterizing agricul-agricultural parastatals and agricultural services tural markets.which can operate commercially (veterinary, To finance private investment on the scalefarm input supply, and some research and necessary will require enlarged financialextension). The sequencing of policy reform intermediation. Financial market reform iswill have to be addressed more effectively in the needed in most African countries to stimulatefuture. In particular, the enabling environment the development of private and cooperativefor private sector investment needs to be created banks which serve agriculture and agriculturallywhile pursuing trade reform and input subsidy related industry. So is the development ofreduction. Otherwise there may be a weak institutions which provide equity financing forsupply response. Adequate management of real agricultural and agro-industrial investment, suchexchange rates is also absolutely essential for as stock exchanges and investment funds.rapid agricultural growth. Governments can contribute here largely

The essence of this objective is that farmers through an appropriate policy environment forand agricultural enterprises must be allowed to banks to flourish and lend to agriculture.become economic players, responding to Generally, this means flexible interest rates, achanges in market conditions as reflected by careful balance between banking supervisionfreely fluctuating prices. Farm prices should no which is necessary and excessive regulationlonger be fixed administratively. Commercial which discourages banking altogether, and bytransactions for agricultural products and inputs allowing donor and NGO pro-active assistanceshould be liberalized. Free prices and liberal to establish lending and savings mobilization incommercial practice already work efficiently for rural areas. In a few cases, joint private andmany food crops, fruit and vegetable exports government banking ventures may be necessaryand some livestock products in many African to jump-start agricultural lending. Donors cancountries. Contrast this with the negative impact finance credit lines, technical assistance toon farmers when world prices are high and private and cooperative banks, subsidies foradministered prices low, or on governments banking infrastructure, and in some caseswhen world prices fall in fixed price and guarantee funds to share the risk of agriculturecontrolled marketing regimes. Tariff protection lending. In the proper policy environment, andshould be established to the extent necessary to with some assistance, private banking establish-counteract dumping, and to maintain approxi- ments will lend to larger farmers, to traders andmately the same level of protection as that to agro-business. Traders and agro-business willafforded to the average product in these coun- lend to farmers. Institutions such as cooperativetries (i.e. no discrimination against agriculture credit banks, and commercial banking establish-in trade policy). ments will lend directly to small and medium

Policy reform will not be enough to stimulate farmers only if ways are found of reducingthe level of private participation necessary. transactions costs (perhaps by more lending toPro-active policies and efforts to bring in the groups or briefly subsidizing these costs),private sector will be required. The linkage of mobilizing rural savings (to create a local stakeagriculture to industry through the processing of in banking services), and managing risk ofagricultural products, the supply of farm inputs default due to climate or commercial crisisand the supply of consumer goods to farmers (guarantee funds can help).

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Continued protectionism and the subsidy of liberalization and improved public expenditureagriculture and livestock products in industrial programs should be undertaken quickly, and cancountries is expected. This puts additional have an immediate impact. Reforms whichpressure on African agriculture to increase require considerable African managementefficiency in order to compete in a world of capacity to implement should- be undertakenartificially low prices. Efficiency increases are gradually as this capacity is developed:more likely to come with greater private sector privatization, land tenure reform, financialinvolvement, stimulated by the domestic policies market development, improved programs forsuggested above. But these policies will be even natural resource management and infrastructuremore effective if industrial countries further development.open their markets to Africa agriculturalproduce, and reduce subsidies to their domestic Technological Advancement at the Farm andagriculture. Enterprise Level

Economic policy in Africa should includemore emphasis on regional integration of Technological development and adoptionagricultural markets than has been emphasized needs to be significantly more effective than inin the past. Generally, strategic advice has the past. This technological improvement shouldfocussed on domestic market liberalization in be directed to obtaining more and better outputAfrica. This advice is still appropriate. How- from the same inputs. This can include newever, it is in many cases easier, as a first step, types of products, including processed products.to liberalize agricultural trade and capital flows It can also come about through expansion inbetween neighboring countries in Africa. This is input use, particularly fertilizer, improvedconsistent with calls for greater collaboration in seeds, irrigation water, animal feed, andagriculture research, and sharing of information veterinary services for livestock. In most ofon policy reform between African countries. Africa, it should generally be directed at

Improvement of economic policy has already expanded output on the same land area with asbeen incorporated in many African government little capital as possible, but in many cases withstrategies and donor strategies for African more labor (given the expected continued rapidagriculture, although progress has been very growth in rural populations and the expectedslow in some countries. There has been a consequent decline in real wages). As policytendency of governments and donors to focus changes in favor of agriculture, it will becometheir policy work on macro-economic policy more profitable for Africans to invest their laborreform, changes in agricultural price, trade, and in agriculture and agriculturally related industry.tax policy. Much weaker efforts have been There are exceptions to this, where the landmade in other areas of agricultural policy frontier will remain large for some time, despitereform such as land tenure, cooperative law, rapid population growth. Zambia is such anregulations of financial institutions, the example. Here, labor-saving and land-usingregulatory framework for forest and natural technology such as mechanized land preparationresource management, improved public expen- will be extremely important. In addition, despitediture programs. Even less pro-active assistance rapid population growth in rural areas, seasonalto the private and cooperative sectors has been labor bottlenecks will continue to be a con-provided. Agricultural policy reform needs to straint. Innovations which overcome thoseincorporate these additional areas through bottlenecks, saving seasonal labor time, will bemedium- and long-term agriculture policy important. But everywhere in Africa, technologyframeworks established by every African improvement directed at small farmers shouldcountry. Reforms which release African generally minimize cash and capital input so thatcapacity such as price, tax and market it is accessible to them. Technological change

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will also have to address the need for good soil networks for specific commodities and themes,and water management. and in bringing international agricultural

The kinds of technology that the above research centers and industrial country researchtranslates into will vary by agro-ecological zone. institutions in as partners. Furthermore,In many of Africa's diverse regions, however, expanded cooperation is required in eachtechnology improvements needed include new country with the private sector, NGOs, andagricultural products, low cost soil nutrient university research centers. The tendency forimprovement, soil and water conservation on each public agricultural research institution tofarms, agro-forestry and tree planting, pursue its own research agenda independentlyintegrated crop-livestock systems, improved must end. In most countries, in-country publicmulti-cropping systems, improved seed varie- sector agricultural research should focus moreties, integrated pest management combined with on adaptive and applied research, as well asthe limited use of chemical pesticides and farming systems research. Fundamental researchherbicides, improved hand tools, animal results should usually be brought in fromtraction, improved livestock including small abroad. Some public sector research can bestock, use of local by-products for animal feed, done by private or university contractor. Privatesimple processing and storage technology and sector agricultural research should not beperhaps most important, increased fertilizer use. inhibited. The private sector is more likely toIn drier low-potential regions, more attention address the technology issues of the mostshould be paid to pastoral livestock systems, profitable commercial crops, grown on largesorghum and millet, pasture management, soil farms and plantations, when investing its ownand water management. In humid areas, tree resources in research. This is important forcrops and agro-forestry may be most important. agricultural development. Private sectorResearch has been ongoing on these types of agricultural research continues to be inhibited intechnologies, and some of that research has many African countries by outmoded regulationsfound its way into farmers fields. The magni- and constraints. These various new conceptstude of this effort needs to be increased. should be developed within national agriculturalTechnology development and dissemination is research master plans for each country, and fordone through agricultural and livestock each region. The Special Program for Africanresearch, extension, education, and input Agricultural Research (SPAAR) is assisting thissupply. work.

Agricultural research systems need to be Extension is found to be important to bringrehabilitated and refocused in nearly every new technologies to farmers, and to identifyAfrican country. The refocusing is needed in the farmer problems for research. Extension forcontent of agricultural research, to make it more profitable commercial crops and livestock, andresponsive to both farmers' needs and to the for serving the largest farmers can increasinglyemerging challenges facing agriculture. More be provided by private sector agro-business andwork is required to develop and adapt technolo- input suppliers. For food crops and for poorgies such as those listed above which show farmers, public sector extension will continue topromise in smallholder conditions. As world be important for some time. Donors need tomarkets change, research is needed to improve collaborate rather than compete, in helpingor change the quality of African export produce governments establish a single public sectorto match world demand. Many African agricul- extension program. This will reduce extensiontural research establishments are too small to overheads and confusion. Most Africanundertake the entire gamut of research neces- countries are too small and too poor to host thesary. For this reason much more emphasis is many public sector extension systems thatneeded on establishing multi-country research donors and NGOs have introduced to them. In

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the public systems, more emphasis needs to be monitoring and taxing foreign off-shoreput on serving women farmers, on addressing fisheries.environmental issues, in providing menus of Farm input supply is often a constraint to thetechnologies from which farmers can choose, in introduction of new technology. In some cases,establishing formal links between research and the constraint is lack of farmer demand forextension, and in using farmers; groups as the inputs because of high cost relative to outputfield-level contact point for extension agents. As prices, or limited knowledge, or the risk ofin the case of research, public sector extension supply ruptures. In some cases, farmers areneeds to become more pluralistic, cooperating ready to purchase greater quantities of farmwith private enterprises, and with NGOs. inputs, but supplies are not available. PastCompetition between various public sector responses to this situation were for governmentssystems, which often characterizes the present and donors to manage the distribution of farmsituation, is self-defeating. inputs and in many cases, subsidize their use-

Mass communications can be used to com- this has not worked. The strategy must be toplement field-level extension. Improved educa- address the bottlenecks on the demand andtion is rural areas will also be important in supply side. Research and extension can addressdeveloping a capacity among future farmers to the issue of the best types of inputs, andunderstand increasingly complex agricultural improve farmer knowledge. Cost is bestand livestock technologies. These are important addressed not through subsidies, but by pro-roles for govermment. active government policy to assist the expansion

Livestock development must be managed of suppliers and facilitate imports (bylargely by livestock owners, and by the private abandoning the licensing of suppliers, andand cooperative enterprises which purchase making foreign exchange available to importerslivestock products and supply inputs. Efforts at of inputs), and through road development togovernment control of livestock markets and reduce distribution costs. Credit facilities can beinput supply, or of livestock production, have useful here (again unsubsidized and preferablylargely failed and should be abandoned. private or cooperative managed). GovernmentsHowever, governments can support private might more pro-actively invite foreign suppliersefforts by including livestock technology in into the country, to help set up distributionresearch and as extension messages. One networks or even to produce the input.important area that has been neglected by Small and medium irrigation has potential inresearch and extension is small ruminants and some countries, as does investment in thebackyard poultry. Government can support maintenance and rehabilitation of largerthrough technical assistance and appropriate schemes. For irrigation projects, full recoverylegislation the establishment of livestock of operation and maintenance costs inassociations, associations of pastoralists, and the recommended. Better management is needed inestablishment of private veterinarians. In some nearly every scheme. This may be obtained bycases, lines of credit to these groups, at sale to or contracting with the private sector,unsubsidized rates, can help. Government vac- and participation in management by water usercination programs and other livestock health associations.programs, executed by private veterinarians, isanother avenue of productive government assis- Development of Farmers' Participationtance. and Empowerment

Fisheries development has potential in somecountries. But this is a private sector activity This objective is consistent with (a) thethat government can assist through research and increasing democratization of many Africanextension, especially in aquaculture, and societies which allows greater farmer

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participation in decision-making; (b) the investment from the largest cities to secondarywidespread finding in all agricultural projects towns as well as to rural areas. Secondary townsthat active farmer participation is usually one are often the first collection markets forcondition of success; and (c) a situation in agricultural produce and the point of wholesalewhich governments are unable to manage and for agricultural inputs and services. They arefinance all rural development activity. The also the places where farmers buy consumercapacity of cooperative or informal groups of goods, and to which they send their children forfarmers should be developed to enable them to secondary education and health services. Theefficiently undertake crop marketing, pro- neglect of secondary towns common in Africancessing, input supply, credit, land management, public expenditure programs has therefore beeninfrastructure maintenance, and management of detrimental to agricultural development.many agricultural services at the field level. Also relatively neglected are publicFarmer organizations tend to succeed if farmers investments in rural water supply, ruralcan manage autonomously from government, education and rural health. Again, part of theand if the organization has a business purpose problem is the skewed allocation of publicand is profitable. Only these types of resources which frequently favors the mega-organizations should be supported. NGOs and cities. In many African countries, the establish-cooperatives from industrial countries have an ment and functioning of a single urban hospitalimportant role to play in assisting African obtains greater public resources than thecooperatives and farmer organizations. combined total of all rural health expenditures,Governments and donors would generally be despite the fact that the former serves anwell-advised to work through NGOs in this infinitesimal proportion of the populationendeavor. Training and capacity-building compared to the latter. Rural health is greatlyundertaken through various farmers affected by the availability of water. Asorganizations will be extremely important. populations grow in rural areas, investment in

rural water supply will have to grow. EducationDeveloping Physical and Social Infrastructure in rural areas has been perhaps most neglected.Including Roads, Rural Water Supply, Rural A statistical study now under way in the AfricaEducation, and Rural Health Facilities Region of the World Bank, to estimate the

weight of various factors determining cropAs indicated on page 6, greatly expanded yields across African countries and through

investment in roads linking country to town and time, finds that the weight attached tocity is required. These include rural roads, as educational level of the farm population is high.well as secondary and primary roads. Rural Education increases the quality of agriculturalroads, however, have been the most neglected. labor, a critical ingredient of agriculturalAlthough roads are the main infrastructure need growth.of agriculture, investment needs also exist in In addition to increasing the priority attachedport facilities and telecommunications. In some to social and physical infrastructure for thecountries, the high cost of transport is the single development of agriculture, the strategy suggestsmost important constraint to expanding com- a new approach to developing it. Because ofmercial agriculture. Where this constraint government capacity-constraints, local com-exists, there is a greater tendency for the munities and the private sector must be broughtagricultural needs of the cities to be served by in more forcefully to construct and maintainimports. infrastructure. In some cases, such as domestic

Generally, to redress the excessive urban water supply, communities can finance at leastbias of the past, there should be a reallocation operation and maintenance. Governments shouldof public sector transport infrastructure not continue to maintain a public monopoly on

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any of these services. Where the private sector should be important components of forestand local communities are willing to act, programs. Physical and social infrastructuregovernments must encourage rather than dis- development should take account of forestcourage this willingness. resource management needs. This will mean

focusing such infrastructure in areas whereNatural Resource Management and population settlement should be encouraged, andForest Conservation excluding it from environmentally sensitive

areas. Parks and protected areas need goodBetter natural resource management is management, in collaboration with local

needed to preserve the productivity of land, populations. Tropical Forest Action Plans, ledwater, forest, plant and animal life in the face of by FAO, or local use plans prepared by govern-widespread environmental degradation in Africa. ments, should be supported where they prepareManaging the natural resource base is both an countries to implement this kind of forestimportant ingredient for agricultural production, strategy.and is an objective in itself. Natural resource In areas which are heavily farmed, and inmanagement requirements vary from country to which forests have largely disappeared, naturalcountry. Generally, the problems reflect market resource management strategies should focus onfailures. Markets for natural resources have not research and extension, to introduce betterdeveloped in a manner which induces individual farming and livestock husbandry practices,decisions to be consistent with economically, forestry and fuelwood production and water usesocially, or environmentally desirable outcomes. to farmers, who own and manage these re-Often, financial returns to natural resources sources. New soil conservation techniques canexploitation are higher than they would be if the be extended more widely to farmers in theseenvironmental cost were fully reflected in areas. The incentive system (prices, land, andfinancial costs. Where this difference is known, ownership), must be such as to encourage gooduser fees and taxes can be levied to adjust for it. natural resource management practices. This

In countries with substantial forest resources, incentive system will generally be onea focus is likely to be forest conservation and characterized by flexible agricultural productprotection of bio-diversity combined with the and input prices, avoidance of typically highsustainable production of wood and other forest taxes on agricultural products (direct andproducts. Forest programs are much more com- indirect),4 but subsidized research and extensionplex than was realized in the past. Improved tax services. However, this is not enough. Typi-and concession policy to deal with inefficient cally, there is competition for land in the betterand destructive logging practices is one key agricultural areas. Land must be allocated forelement. Strengthening government forest ser- infrastructure, parks, forest, grazing lands andvices is another. A third will be the establish- agriculture. Planning is useful because of thement of land tenure systems which give forest important trade-offs between these various uses.dwellers a stake in forest management and Providing land tenure security to traditional landconservation while protecting their livelihoods. users is important in most countries to en-This will require either allocating ownership or courage them to invest in the land. This can belong-term user rights in forests to forest done by allocating and respecting some combi-dwellers. Usually, the ownership or user right nation of group titles, individual titles, or secureshould be granted to traditional or local long-term user rights. The efficiency of thecommunities. Industrial forest plantations and judicial system in protecting these rights will bethe introduction of tree-growing to farmers important.

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In pasture areas, land-use planning will also technical assistance. This tendency is sobe important, since there are trade-offs here as pronounced that a significant proportion of aidwell between the predominate pastoralists, to agriculture now comes in the form offarmers who are moving into pasture areas to technical assistance. A major shift is requiredfarm, fuelwood gatherers, and bio-diversity toward building African capacity to managepreservation. Markets generally do not exist for through expanded training, support to educa-pasture land, so the market place cannot be used tional institutions in Africa, and support tofor allocating land. Resolving land disputes is an learning by doing. All donor and NGO projectsimportant aspect of the solution to the problems should include capacity-building efforts as aof pastoral areas, including that of increasing main plank. African capacity can be liberatedfuelwood scarcity. People with some security of where it already exists by allowing greaterland use are more likely to invest in the land, private, NGO, and university participation in allincluding in trees for fuelwood. The manage- aspects of African economic life. A smaller rolement of pastureland by local peoples, grouped for government will help it to focus on doinginto associations, is an important element of the well those tasks that remain to it.strategy. But these associations must be Expanded assistance to African agriculturalprovided ownership or assured long-term user education, from the primary school to universityrights to the land. levels, is needed. The needs are not quanti-

Natural resource management is extremely tative, but qualitative. Better curriculum andcomplex, and there is not yet a good example of better trained teachers are needed at all levels.a successful national program, although there Generally, agricultural curricula from primaryare many promising starts and successful small- school to university need to be made morescale projects. The national programs which are relevant to each country's agricultural situation,required vary enormously by country and agro- and more closely connected to the realities ofecological situation. Generalities beyond those African farming. The difficulty is that this mustmentioned above are difficult. For this reason, be done while still preparing students toit is useful to develop a broad strategy for each understand the complexities of rapid techno-country in an environmental action plan. These logical changes elsewhere in the world.plans will deal with other environmental issuesbeyond natural resource management, but in Is the Strategy Different frommost African countries will focus on natural Existing Strategy?resources important to agriculture: soil, water,forests, pasture, fisheries. There is an important The strategy proposed here is very differentrole for research in this domain, given the many from the approach followed in most Africantechnical and scientific issues which remain countries and by most donors. It also reflects aunanswered. difference with Bank practice in the past. Much

of government and donor focus has been onDeveloping African Capacity to only one of the five priorities: the ceation andManage Agriculture dissemination of agricultural technology. While

this will continue to be of great importance, theSuccess in each of the preceding five priority approach to it will have to become more

areas requires the building of African capacity pluralistic, involving non-governmental actorsto manage agriculture, at the level of the farm, and especially farmers. More multi-countrythe enterprise, the cooperative, and in govern- collaboration will be required, and the role ofment. As indicated on page 7, the tendency of the private and cooperative sectors expanded.donors, NGOs and some governments has been The content of most public sector agricultureto address capacity constraints with expatriate research needs to be directed more toward

14

Inkoduction and Summary

responding to farmers needs. Regarding policy Short-Term vs. Long-Term Measures andreform, structural adjustment programs have Supply Responsepursued many of the elements identified asnecessary in this strategy. However, this These various approaches will producedocument finds that structural adjustment results over the short-, medium- and long-term.programs have neglected many areas of Those parts of the strategy which can generateimportance for agriculture; the reform agenda immediate returns are agricultural policyneeds to be significantly expanded and deepened improvement, extension, and improved farmin the areas of land tenure, natural resource input supply. Many activities will have largeconservation, improved public expenditure benefits only in the medium-term: credit,programs, social services in rural areas, privatization, road-building, soil conservation,regional integration, and private sector land tenure reform are examples. Some parts ofdevelopment. The sequencing of reform must the strategy will have an impact only in thealso be more carefully designed. Neither long-term: education, population policy, bio-governments, the Bank, nor other donors have diversity conservation, and sound urban policydevoted enough attention to farmer participation are good examples.and natural resource management. These are Analysis of supply response suggests that thetherefore areas of new and expanded activity. preceding measures can generate short-termChanges are proposed in expanding investment agricultural growth response in the 3-4 percentin rural transport to link rural areas to urban per annum range (Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania,markets. Expanded attention to secondary towns Burkina Faso are examples of rapid supplyis also new. Explicit inclusion of rural water, response to policy reform and good agriculturalhealth and education development as an extension). Sustained agricultural growth in theingredient of agricultural development is 3.5 to 4.5 percent per annum range is possibleneeded, and is new. Finally, the overarching (medium and long-term growth), in response toemphasis on building African capacity to the package of measures suggested here. This ismanage agriculture is new. demonstrated by the experience in Nigeria,

Most important is a broadening of the view Kenya, Botswana, Tanzania, Benin, Comoros,about the context in which agricultural develop- and Guinea-Bissau where agricultural growth ofment must take place. Narrow views of agricul- this magnitude has continued for up to fivetural strategy as essentially technology improve- years, with better though still imperfectment and good macro-economic policy are in- implementation of the types of recommendationsadequate. A greatly expanded vision of both the suggested here.role of agriculture and the factors which contri-bute to agricultural growth is necessary. Social A Focus for the World Banksector development, environmental concerns,physical infrastructure development, as well as The World Bank plays an extremelypolitical development and creation of the rule of important role in African agriculture, as thelaw are all vital to the development of agricul- major contributor to projects in agriculture,ture. And agricultural development will contri- infrastructure, social services, finance, and tobute to progress in each of these areas, by creat- structural adjustment programs which affecting the wealth, broadly distributed in the popu- agricultural policy. As such, it will be the majorlation, necessary to maintain social progress, to external source of support to Africanfinance preservation of the environment, and to governments, the private sector and localpermit people to divert more energy from mere communities in implementing the strategysurvival to political participation. proposed. To have a significant impact on

15


agriculture, the Bank will contribute to each of programs must increasingly be, with goodthe priority areas noted here. policy, a pre-condition to Bank agricultural

The World Bank's comparative advantage lending. The Bank must increasingly tie itsrelative to other donors, NGOs and the private disbursements for investment projects to thesector is in supporting policy and sector performance of projects, not merely to projectinvestment. Considerably more of its attention expenditures.and energy must be devoted to agricultural The counterpart funding problem in mostpolicy reform. This will require better Bank agricultural projects must be dealt withagricultural analysis, expanding the content of through the PERs, greater effort at the designpolicy reform to include factors such as land stage to ensure government commitment, greatertenure, rural infrastructure, rural education, hesitancy by the Bank to go forward with pro-natural resource management and agro-industry, jects for which government commitment is notand greater attention to sustaining reforms perceived as being adequate, increasing the rolealready undertaken. Increasingly, agricultural of private and NGO sectors in projects (tolending programs should be conditioned on reduce the government's fiscal burden), andagreement with governments regarding agri- financing up to 100 percent of total recurrentcultural policy reform. Each African country costs on a long-term declining basis for agri-needs a medium- to long-term agricultural cultural research projects, and for other agri-development and policy framework within culture service projects when there is sufficientwhich this agreement can be fashioned. country justification.

The Bank and other donors should support To address project management problemsthis framework through an appropriate and to build African capacity, there must becombination of policy-based and investment more careful design of training needs, parti-operations. But support should be given only cularly training in management, procurementwhen there is a perception of genuine com- and accounting. Projects should be kept simple,mitment to these programs. The Bank also needs commensurate with the ability of managers,to more forcefully advocate agricultural trade with training, to execute them. Less emphasisand subsidy reform in industrial countries, should be put on expatriate technical assistance.thereby becoming more balanced in its policy Greater investment in agricultural education,advice between industrial and developing coun- with an initial focus on qualitative improvementstries. to education, is necessary to build basic capa-

Improved public expenditure programs are city. The donor's African Capacity Buildingvital to healthy agricultural growth and to a Initiative (ACBI) is doing this for higherhealthy Bank portfolio in agriculture. Public education in the economic and policy areas.Expenditure Reviews (PERs) must be taken Similar support will be provided for agriculturalmuch more seriously by agricultural divisions, education.which must use this opportunity to identify Investment in private sector agro-processing,actions needed to provide appropriate priority to marketing and large farm activity needs to beagriculture, and to eliminate poorly-conceived expanded. Innovative ways of doing this need toprojects. Results of PERs must be followed up. be developed, and include targeted but unsubsi-It is pointless for the Bank to expand lending to dized credit, equity funds which can makeagriculture in countries which refuse to allocate equity investment, a renewed interest by IFC inadequate resources for the operations of this sector, support to trade and professionalprojects. As public expenditure programs groups, and reducing policy constraints.become better and sector policy improves, the Parastatal divestiture will be supported.Bank can move to sector investment lending. Agricultural credit projects will supportAgreed improvements to public expenditure farmer and privately--managed savings and loan

16


associations, and commercial banks operating in environmental action plans, land-use plans,rural areas. The Bank has a role in assisting in water resource plans, etc.). Investment projectsboth developments. having negative environmental impact will be

The innovations in the design of agricultural dropped, unless the negative effects can beresearch projects proposed by the SPAAR task mitigated.forces studying the Sahel and SADC situations, Irrigation projects can be improved withshould be incorporated in on-going and future greater ownership and management by farmers,agricultural research projects. Most important is farmers groups, and or the private sector. Lessthe introduction of non-governmental actors in complex and more small-scale schemes shouldagricultural research, complete restructuring of be the focus of donor support relative to large-public sector research establishments based on scale schemes. Better operation and maintenancehigh-quality national master plans, better of successful large-scale schemes should also befunding mechanisms, and regional cooperation supported. Contracting with private companiesin research. to manage schemes should be attempted more

Agricultural extension projects, ongoing and often by governments. New large-scale schemesplanned, need to include a bigger role for the deserve sceptical scrutiny, but not automaticprivate sector, NGOs, cooperatives, and exclusion.women. Agricultural education, mass media An expansion of Bank activity in the area ofcommunication to farmers, and expanding the rural roads and water supply is required. Thisscope of extension messages are important needs community participation in maintenance,innovations. and the use of private contractors for

Incentives and assistance need to be construction.improved to allow livestock owners to take real A reduction of the urban bias of Africancontrol of livestock project services, pasture government public expenditure is needed, andmanagement and other livestock development within the urban budget, relatively moreactivities. There is considerable scope for dairy investment is needed in secondary towns anddevelopment in high potential areas. More focus cities and less in the large mega-cities.in livestock projects is required on private Secondary towns and cities are more intimatelysector management of marketing, input supply connected to agriculture, while mega-citiesand veterinary services. There is considerable depend more on imports. Bank lending needs topotential for. small ruminants and backyard be reallocated accordingly.poultry. Extension services need to provide Farmer empowerment in all areas listedlivestock messages. above will be necessary. Bank assistance to

Ongoing and future forestry and natural cooperatives, farmers organizations and landresource management projects will have to more tenure reform are all ways of doing this.broadly incorporate actions involving land The particular constraints of women intenure reform, more careful and circumscribed farming, processing, fuelwood gathering,land settlement and resettlement, community household management, water collection, amongaction and ownership, forest conservation, and others, need continuous special attention in allagricultural development around the periphery project design (for example in extension, credit,of the forest. Extension of natural resource land tenure, forest, and private sector projects).management messages to local populations will Food security interventions involve morebe important. These projects should support than just expanding food production. Nutritionnational natural resource management programs, interventions, employment creation among theas designed through one or more of the existing poor, and better food distribution are legitimateinstruments (tropical forestry action plans, interventions to be supported by the Bank. The

17

A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Sahamn Africa and a Focus for the World Bani

Bank will also assist in drought emergencies as expand its capacity in this regard through moreit is now doing in Southern Africa and in the staff based in the field, the Bank will have toHorn of Africa. increasingly work through NGOs, the private

Improving health, education and family sector, and local communities, as well asplanning services in rural areas are important traditional government and donor partners to doinputs to agricultural development, as well as the implementing and to help with supervision.desirable in and of themselves. This is all the This means greater contact with other non-more apparent with the onset of an AIDS governmental institutions, more "wholesale"epidemic in some countries. More Bank support work, less retail work. It will mean more sectorfor social services in rural areas will be work, including scrutinizing inter-sectoralundertaken. linkages. It will also mean more training of

Eliminated from Bank support will be inte- Africans to manage services themselves. As agrated rural development projects; support for result, the Bank's efforts at donor coordinationparastatal agricultural marketing, processing and and collaboration must increase, as well as itscredit institutions except as transitory institutions work with governments and with non-where the private sector does not yet exist; ex- governmental organizations, to foster commit-clusive focus on government institutions in agri- ment.culture research, extension, forestry, and live- One implication of this is that the instrumentstock services; new large-scale irrigation proof choice for Bank involvement will notjects or irrigation projects managed exclusively necessarily be lending. In many cases it will beby governments; and exclusive government con- participation in policy formulation or thestruction, operation and maintenance of rural development of medium-term agriculturalinfrastructure. The private sector and NGOs will development programs, donor coordination,be systematically brought into Bank projects. public expenditure reviews, implementation

Mhe strengthened Bank focus on policy assistance and training. To mobilize all thechanges in agriculture (not just macro-economic talent available and to help generate Africanpolicy), guiding African capacity to manage commitment, the Bank will have to be morethese various activities, and improving public responsive to local initiatives, less dogmatic inexpenditure programs in agriculture, will applying its own approach, and more willing tocapitalize on the Bank's strengths in the policy work with others. But when projects are notarea, its comprehensive coverage of develop- succeeding, the Bank must become more willingment, its donor coordination role, and its ability to stop disbursements.to mobilize and apply significant resources. The The Africa Region's agricultural lendingBank is less successful at managing agricultural program for the period July 1992 to July 1997projects on the ground. Although it should reflects these priorities.

18


Table 1.1. World Bank Agriculture Operations in Africa

Number of Loan AmountProjects (S million)

Agricultural sector loans, and sector investment 11 612.2

Agricultural services (research, extension, seeds, inputs) 32 1142.9

Agro-Industry, private sector, credit, marketing, coops 15 674.6

Food security 4 159.7

Forestry, environment, natural resource management, land 23 760.7tenure

Irrigation and Drainage 6 210.1

Livestock/fisheries 9 302.1

TOTAL 100 3862.3

Other operations which will have an impact and population projects amounting to total loanson agriculture, although not directly focused on of US$1,458.3 million (for break-up, see lastthe sector, include rural road,5 water supply page of Chapter 11).

Notes

1. Reference to Africa is to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

2. Based on ex-post calculations of economic rate of return.

3. An interesting study of Ghana foodcrop markets illustrates how well these markets workin that country; Harold Alderman, "Intercommodity Price Transmittal, Analysis of FoodMarkets in Ghana,"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 884, 1992.

4. See Maurice Schiff and Alberto Valdez, lhe Plundering of Agriculture in DevelopingCountries, World Bank, 1992.

5. The loan/credit amounts directed to the rural road components are not identifiedseparately. The number includes all transport projects with a rural road component.

19

t,4s .s~~0Z

Recent Performance of African Agriculture

2. Recent Performance of African Agriculture

Agricultural Growth East and North Africa, 3.0 percent in SouthAsia, and 1.9 percent in Latin America and the

During the period 1965-1980, Sub-Saharan Caribbean. Taking the average per capita foodAfrica's agricultural value added in constant production in Africa during 1979-1981 as theprices, increased at 1.8 percent per annum on base (with an index of 100), the average indexaverage (Annex Table 2A shows growth rates of per capita food production in the 1988-1990for each country), compared with an annual period was 94 in SSA, compared with 115 in allaverage increase for the same period of 2.7 developing countries (Annex Table 3). Thepercent per annum in SSA's population (Annex volume of agricultural exports from SSA de-Table 1 shows population growth rates for each clined at an average rate of about 2.7 percentcountry).' During 1980-1990, the agricultural per annum from 1980 to 1990 (Annex Table 6),growth rate declined slightly to 1.4 percent per while comparable figures for all developingannum, while the population growth rate ex- countries show an increase.panded to 3.1 percent per annum. By compari- The following ten countries recently hadson, agricultural value added in constant prices good to excellent growth rates (3.5 percent pergrew during 1980-1990 by 4.8 percent per year annum or above during most of the period 1986in low- and middle-income countries in East to 1991). The countries are shown in order ofAsia and the Pacific, 4.3 percent in the Middle the most impressive agricultural growth. (For a

Table 2.1. African Countries with High Agricultural Growth Rates (percent per annum)

1986-1989 1990 1991

Chad 6.1 8.9 20.0

Cape Verde 12.0 -3.8 9.3

Nigeria 4.3 4.1 5.0

Botswana 19.5 3.7 2.7

Guinea-Bissau 6.4 2.5 5.7

Uganda 6.0 3.4 2.9

Benin 5.0 1.4 4.5

Kenya 4.3 3.5 -0.7

Tanzania 4.5 2.9

Comoros 4.5 2.8 3.9

23

A Stntegy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

Table 2.2. High African Agricultural Growth Rates - Second 7ler Countries (percent per annum)

1986-1989 1990 1991

Siera Leone 3.6 1.7 3.1

CMte d'Ivoire 3.6 4.2 -1.5

Burkina Faso 3.1 -3.4 4.7

full listing see Annex Table 2A). Food Security and Poverty AlleviationCountries doing relatively well, in the 3 to

3.5 percent per annum growth range for most of There are no reliable statistics for foodthe 1986-1991 period are shown in Table 2.2. security and rural poverty. However, whereabove. agricultural growth is poor and no other produc-

This list of successful and relatively tive sector is performing well, in the mediumsuccessful agricultural performers in the late term, food security is unlikely to be assured.1980s and early 1990s comprises less than one- Poor farm performance in SSA has led to an in-third of African countries, though the excellent crease in food imports. Between 1974 and 1990,performance of Africa's most populous country, cereal imports by SSA rose at the rate of 3.9Nigeria, is extremely important. Nigeria, Chad, percent per annum ( Annex Table 3), and foodComoros, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Uganda, and aid in cereals by 7.0 percent per annum.3 De-Tanzania were all poor agricultural performers spite this increase in food imports, the averagein the 1960s and 1970s. This change in daily caloric intake per person in Africa hasperformance suggests what can be done to been estimated at about 87 percent of require-reverse agriculture's fortunes in other African ments in the 1980s (Annex Table 3 for data bycountries. country). In 1980, about one-quarter of SSA's

Against the notable achievements have come population, some 104 million people, were nor-some notable setbacks to agricultural growth mally unable to secure adequate food for them-(1986-1991) in Congo, Mali, Zambia, Togo, selves.4 A wide range of countries are affected.Somalia, Zimbabwe, Senegal, the Central Afri- The Sahelian countries, Ethiopia, Sudan,can Republic, Gabon, Cameroon, Angola, Somalia and some of South Central Africa, formSudan, Rwanda, and Mauritania (see Annex the core group of food-insecure at the nationalTable 2A for data). Table 2.1 shows the situa- level, but all other countries include sizeabletion in C6te d'Ivoire and Kenya to be recently populations who do not obtain adequate food.5

deteriorating. The causes of these setbacks A minimum acceptable level of calories perinclude drought, civil disturbance, and poor capita per day is estimated at 2,330. Foreconomic policy. The present drought in Sou- comparison, the average for all developingthem Africa has greatly affected agriculture in countries was about 2,523 in 1989; ChinaZimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, Botswana and assures 2,640. African countries assuring 2,330South Africa in 1992. These disturbances, both or above in the 1986-1989 period includedman-made and natural, have been common in Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, CMteAfrica and serve as current examples of the d'Ivoire, Congo, Mauritius, Swaziland, Gabon,fragility of agricultural development on this Sao Tome and Principe, Cape Verde, and thecontinent. Gambia (see Annex Table 3). Countries coming

24

Rooent Performnnc of African Agriculture

close to the 2,330 level are Burundi and Niger. Chad, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Guinea,Good agricultural performance is not associated Togo, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Senegal, Kenyawith higher levels of food security except in a and Angola. Most are countries which havefew cases (Guinea-Bissau, Burundi, and Congo). been affected by extreme social and civil disrup-Poor agricultural growth certainly contributes to tion, in some cases drought, and in several casespoor food security, but higher growth does not extraordinarily poor agricultural and economicnecessarily assure the reverse. With rare excep- policy. Two have been good agricultural per-tions such as COte d'Ivoire, smaller countries formers - Kenya and Togo.tend to provide better food security, partly dueto easier access of imported food to a larger Natural Resources and the Environmentportion of their population. Wealthier countriesalso do somewhat better in assuring food Partly as the result of an increasing ruralsecurity, suggesting the importance of ability to population searching for new farm land, defore-purchase food. station occurred at the rate of 3.7 million

Annex Table 3 shows that average per capita hectares per year in the 1980s (World Resourcesdaily caloric intake has stagnated or declined in Institute), out of a total area under forest inmost of Sub-Saharan Africa since 1965. In con- Africa of 679 million hectares in 1980 (Annextrast, it has increased significantly in every Table 1). There is some indication that this isother part of the developing world except South accelerating. FAO recently estimated presentAsia, where it only increased slightly. Per capita rates of destruction at 5 million ha per yearcaloric intake in South Asia still leads that in although this figure is tentative.Sub-Saharan Africa. Annex Table 3 shows seve- Countries with the highest rates of defore-ral African countries with sharp deterioration: station are shown in the following table:

Table 2.3. Rate of Forest Destruction, 1980s(percent per annum)

C6te d'Ivoire 5.2

Malawi 3.5

Burundi 2.7

Nigeria 2.7

Guinea-Bissau 2.7

Niger 2.6

Gambia, The 2.4

Mauritania 2.4

Liberia 2.3

Rwanda 2.3

Source: Draft data from African Indicators Project, WorldResources Institute, 1991 (see Annex Table 11).

25


The balance of land area has been shifting to Cote d'Ivoire, where the rate of deforestationcropping and non-agricultural land uses, and out has been the most rapid in Sub-Saharan Africa,of forests, woodland and wilderness. Annex there has been a strong and accelerating declineTable 9 shows agricultural land to have in mean annual rainfall at all monitoring stationsexpanded from 6 percent of SSA's land area in during the 1970s and 1980s; the dry savanna1965 to 7 percent in 1987, which is a rate of has expanded southward from the northern part0.7 percent per annum. Pasture land remained of the country through its middle towards thestable during this period at 27 percent. Forest Atlantic coast.' Annual rainfall in Senegal hasarea declined from 33 to 30 percent while other decreased by 2.2 percent per annum over theuses expanded. Africa's original wildlife habitat past two decades, and there has been a sharpat the turn of the century has shrunk by 64 decrease in rainfall in northern Nigeria andpercent to a little more than one-third of its Cameroon.'° Statistics on mean rainfalloriginal extent. througout Ethiopia also show a precipitous

These figures have no meaning by them- decline during the same period."1 Althoughselves. But these changes have several costs. droughts are cyclical (see Annex Table 12 forFirst, the shrinkage of wildlife habitat and major drought periods), there is evidence thatforests is threatening numerous plant and animal forest and vegetative destruction in the Sahel hasspecies. The World Resources Institute's contributed to a long-term decline in rainfall,"African Indicators Project' has provided which supports the above statistics.estimates of threatened species in Africa. Someexamples: 10 percent of Cote d'Ivoire'smammals are presently threatened with extinc- Figure 1. Rainfall Devation, 1900-87tion, as are 0.8 percent of its birds. Zaire hasthe largest number of known species of mam-mals; nearly 6 percent are now threatened with 60

extinction. In Kenya, which has relatively well- 40 -protected parks, 4 percent of mammal speciesare threatened. The World Resources Institute 20- -

estimates that 1,144 rare South African plant lspecies are threatened.6

There is some evidence that deforestation = -20- 1 .- -

negatively affects rainfall on a local basis, and .may have a more extensive negative impact if < -40 .

very widespread. The Sahel region has been the -60-_________________________object of meteorological monitoring and X C O C D C |research which suggests increasing aridity - ! - -during the last two decades.7 The graph Yearshowing rainfall deviation from the 1900-1987 Source: Tucker et al., 1991.average is telling. It shows that the Sahel has Source:_Tucker_et_al.,_1991.always experienced wide variations in annualrainfall, but also that rainfall has beenconsistently and significantly below the long- Up to 80 percent of Africa's pasture land isterm average every year since 1970.' at least partly degraded, as is up to 80 percent

There have also been significant declines in of its cropland, according to the United Nationsaverage rainfall in the coastal countries along Environment Programme (see Annex Tablethe Gulf of Guinea and in eastern Africa. In 14).12 Soil erosion, which is a major result of

26

Romeat Performance of Africn Agriculture

this degradation, is widespread. Virtually every below 10 percent. The 1991 and 1992 review bycountry in Africa has had localized studies the Africa Region of the ongoing agriculturalindicating wide spread erosion (Annex Table 13 portfolio found that about 35 percent facesummarizes a few). The Max Planck Institute serious problems which, if not resolved, willestimates that massive biomass burning is lead to project failure. The present World Bankoccurring in Africa, including burning of commitment to agricultural projects in Sub-vegetation on farms before planting, burning of Saharan Africa, covering 182 projects," totalspastures to encourage new grasses for livestock, US$4.9 billion.*burning of forests to clear for farmland and for The most problematic sectors are, in order ofpurposes of hunting. This massive burning con- problems: fisheries (though only with two pro-tributes to the greenhouse effect by adding CO2 jects), tree crops, forestry, livestock, irrigationto the atmosphere. More important perhaps, is and drainage, and research. The least problema-the contribution of burning to localized deposi- tic are in order of least problems: agriculturetion of acid which inhibits growth of trees and sector operations, credit, and agroindustry. Areaof aquatic organisms, and negatively affects soil development and agricultural sector investmentfertility.'3 are somewhere in between. These findings show

The human costs of deforestation and some shift over time.environmental degradation are direct, through, There has been a remarkable deterioration infor example less timber to sell and less tree crops project performance, primarily relatedfuelwood available. Indirect effects include the to the extraordinarily low world prices for threeadditional burden on women and children who crops (see page 31), which has compromised themust walk further and pay more for fuel- financial and economic viability of many ofwood.1 ' Reduced rainfall constrains agricul- these projects. Many tree crops projects are alsoture. It is estimated that in the Sahel, yields of found in the CFA franc countries, where thesorghum (the staple crop) have declined at about overvalued real effective exchange rate has1.5 percent per annum despite investment in compromised their financial viability.yield-increasing technology."5 A review of Research projects have serious performanceaverage crop yields for cereals, roots and tubers problems, usually related to poor govermnentin forty-one African countries (FAO data; management of public agriculture researchAnnex Tables 4 and 5), showed thirteen coun- institutions, underfunding reflecting the lowtries registering declines in cereal yields and priority attached to research, competitionfifteen registering declines in yields for roots between donors and the short-term nature ofand tubers-this despite hundreds of millions of donor support, exclusion of the private sectorsdollars of investment in agricultural research, and the neglect of cooperation between coun-extension, credit, input supply and equipment. tries. Extension projects are rated to have a veryThe main cause is a decline in rainfall and soil positive production impact. Bank studies ofdegradation, and the movement of an expanding extension projects recently completed in Kenyarural population on to land which is less suitable and Burkina Faso show very high economicfor cultivation. rates of return (over 100 percent, see Chapter

6). These are among the most productivePerformance of World Bank investments the Bank has financed in Africa.Agricultural Projects Overall, credit projects perform well because

the few that are under way are done in conjunc-Audit reports of Bank agricultural projects tion with financial sector reform, and in some

completed in Sub-Saharan Africa suggest a cases with nongovernmental institutions such asfailure rate of about 50 percent, with failure cooperative banks. The conventional parastatal-defined as an economic rate of return (ERR) managed credit projects have been mostly aban-

27

A Strtegy to Develop Agriculure in Sub-Saharn Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

doned. Agriculture sector operations are management by public sector institutions, lowperfbrming well because there is considerable cost recovery for services (water, veterinary,selectivity regarding the countries in which the logging concessions, fishing rights) whichBank will finance them. These are usually the encourages wasteful use of the resource, costcountries with the greatest commitment to over-runs (especially for irrigation), and littlegricultural sector reform. Agro-industry pro- user participation in management of the re-

jects do well because they are most frequently source. It is in these areas that the changesexecuted by private sector partners - which proposed in this agricultural strategy paper areoperate relatively well and have simple most significant. The new strategic thrust of thecommercial objectives. World Bank in these types of projects should

The continued poor performance of projects greatly improve project performance in therelating to fisheries, irrigation and drainage, future, and is probably already responsible forforestry (though improved) and livestock the improvements in ongoing forestry and live-(though improved) is cause for concern. Most stock projects.often the problems are linked to ineffective

Notes

1. Data is shown for each country in the statistical tables. The source is World Bank, WorldDevelopment Indicators, 1992, and the World Bank's economic and social data bank(sourced in October 1992). It should be noted that the other important source of data,FAO production indexes, show somewhat different growth rates since output rather thanvalue added is measured. However, FAO's overall output growth rate for SSA is aboutthe same as that obtained by the World Bank using value added data. These various data,though the best available, are poor. Significantly better data collection is needed. Perhapsa better pooling of resources by the major gatherers of data would be more efficient thanthe present dispersion of efforts.

2. Rate of growth of agricultural value added in constant prices. Data is obtained from theWorld Bank's economic and social data bank, October 1992. Its original source is Bankstaff, through country economic and agricultural reviews.

3. World Development Indicators, World Bank, 1992.

4. Recent estimates suggest that up to 40 percent of Africa's population is food-insecure;'Achieving Food Security in Africa," Africa Technical Department, Food Security Unit,World Bank, February 1992.

5. The information is derived from World Bank data published in World DevelopmentIndicators 1992; "Report of the Task Force on Food Security in Africa,' Food SecurityTask Force, Africa Region, World Bank, June 30, 1988; and "Achieving Food Securityin Africa," ibid.

6. Estimates of threatened species have been made by WRI in the "African IndicatorsProject". The data is reproduced in World Resources Institute (with UNEP and UNDP),World Resources 1992/1993, Oxford University Press, 1992.

28

Reocat Performance of African Agriculture

7. J.E. Gorse and D.R. Steeds, Desertificatlon In the Sahelian and Sudanian Zones of WestAfrica, World Bank Technical Paper No. 61, June 1987.

8. C.J. Tucker, H.W. Dregne, W.W. Newcomb, 'Expansion and Contraction of the SaharaDesert from 1980-1990", Science, Vol. 253, July 19, 1991, pp. 299-301.

9. Cote d 'lvoire Agriculture Sector Adjustment Operation, President's Report, OccidentalAfrica Department, World Bank, Washington D.C., October 1989.

10. Uma Lele (ed.), "Managing Agricultural Development in Africa. Lessons fromExperience," Madia Discussion Paper 2, World Bank, Washington D.C., 1989.

Uma Lele and Steven Stone "Population Pressure, the Environment and AgriculturalIntensification: Variations on the Boserup Hypothesis,"Madia Discussion Paper 4, WorldBank, Washington D.C., 1989.

11. Ethiopia: Agriculture -A Strategyfor Growth: Sector Review, Eastern Africa Department,Africa Region, World Bank, Washington D.C., March 25, 1987.

12. UNEP explains this as a problem of 'desertification" which is a misnomer. The problemis soil and vegetative degradation. See Ridley Nelson, "Dryland Management: TheDesertification Problem," World Bank Environment Department Working Paper No. 8,September 1988. See also FAO, The Conservation and Rehabilitation of Afrfican Lands:An International Scheme, ARC 190/4, Rome, 1990; FAO and United Nations EconomicCommission for Africa, Land Degradation and Food Supply, Issues and Optionsfor FoodSelf-Sufficiency in Africa, Rome, 1992; and IFAD, Soil and Water Conservation In Sub-Saharan Africa, Rome, January 1992.

13. See Meinrat Andreae and Johann Goldammer 'Tropical Wildland Fires and OtherBiomass Burning: Environmental Impacts and Implications for Land-Use and FireManagement," in Kevin Cleaver and others (eds.), Conservation of West and CentralAfrican Rainforest, World Bank Environment Paper Number 1, Environment Departmentand Africa Technical Department, October 1992, pp. 79-100.

14. See Women and the Environmental Crisis, Report of the Proceedings of the Workshopon Women, Environment and Development, Nairobi, July 10-20, 1985, EnvironmentalLiaison Center, Nairobi, 1985.

15. Peter 1. Matlon, "Improving Productivity in Sorghum and Pearl Millett in Semi-AridAfrica," Food Research Institute Studies, Vol. XXII, No. 1, 1990.

See also Francois Falloux and Aleki Mukendi, (eds)., "Desertification Control andRenewable Resource Management in the Sahelian and Sudanian Zones of West Africa,"World Bank Technical Paper No. 70, January 1988.

16. Annual Review of Implementation and Supervision: African Agriculture, FY92, TechnicalDepartment, Agriculture Division, Africa Region, World Bank, October 1992. Fiscal

29

A Stategy to Develop Agriukure in Sub-Sahamn Afic and a Pocus for the World ank

Year 91 (FY91) runs from July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1991, and FY92 from July 1, 1991to June 30, 1992.

* One billion equals 1,000 million.

30

3. Objectives for Agriculture inSub-Saharan Africa

Growth of Production and Value Added alleviation and improved food security thereforerequire that rural people, particularly rural

Agriculture remains the principal occupation of women and children, receive attention inthe majority of people in Africa. An average 32 agricultural growth strategies. Furthermore,percent of GDP is produced by agriculture; the women are increasingly the main agriculturalsector constitutes the largest productive sector in decision-makers as men migrate to towns andAfrica. The analysis of the Bank's report cities, or to estates, looking for work. Ifentitled Sub-Saharan Africa from Crisis to agriculture is to grow at 4 percent per annum itSustainable Growth, Long-Term Perspective will be increasingly women who are responsibleStudy, 1989, shows that economic growth of at for this growth.4least 4 percent per annum in each African However, poverty alleviation and foodcountry, which was the objective established, security involve more than just a certain rate ofwill require agricultural growth at the same agricultural growth. Even with agriculturelevel in most countries. This is because other growing at 4 percent per annum, Africa willproductive sectors are relatively small. Without have great difficulty feeding itself if populationagricultural growth at 4 percent per annum, the growth continues at over 3 percent per annum.generally most competitive industrial sector Case I in Table 3.1 which follows shows the(agro-industry) will not be supplied with the raw staggering food import requirements if presentmaterial to permit it to grow by its target rate of population and agricultural growth trends were5 to 7 percent per annum. Analysis undertaken to continue. The food gap, even at the presentfor Sub-Saharan Africa found that agricultural low average per capita food consumption levelsgrowth is the most important contributor to the (about 202 kg/cap/year), would increase fromgrowth of manufacturing and services.' 10 million tons maize equivalent at present to 24Agriculture is the major source of raw material million tons by the year 2000 and to 80 millionfor industry, is a main purchaser of simple tools tons twenty years later.5

(farm implements), is a purchaser of services Without a reduction in aggregate population(farm mechanics, transport), and farmers are the growth rates, even sustained food productionmajor consumers of consumption goods since gains of 4 percent annually would only representthey constitute the majority of the population an increase on a per capita basis of less than 1and the employed. The analysis suggested that percent per annum. Even with unchangeda 1 percent growth in agriculture causes average consumption per capita, and with inter-economic growth of 1.5 times this amount due regional food trade completely liberalized toto the stimulus to industry, transport, and allow intra-African food movement from surplusservices.2 to deficit countries, aggregate food import

requirements would therefore decline onlyPoverty Alleviation and Food Security slowly and would be eliminated entirely only in

the year 2004 (Case II, Table 3.1).Surveys undertaken in much of Africa show Even in this scenario, average per capita

that most of the poor are rural people.3 Poverty availability of food would not increase. In the

31

Table 3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Popadadon and Food Securrty, 1990o2020

Scenarios 1990 2000 2010 2020

case IPopulation (millions with total 494 664 892 1200

fertility rate remaining atprojected levels)

Food production (million tons of 90 110 134 163maize equivalent at current trendgrowth rate of 2 percent ayear)

Food consumption (million tons 100 134 181 243with unchanged avegage percapita consumption)

Food gap (million tons)c tO 24 47 so

Case 11Population (millions as in 494 664 892 1200

Case I)Food production (million tons at 4 90 133 197 292

percent annual growth)Food reguirement (million tons as in 100 134 181 243

case )Food gap (million tons) 10 I -16 -49

Case IIIPopulation (millions, with total fertility 494 657 875 1169

rate declising by 50 percentby 2030)

Food production (million tons at 90 110 134 1632 percent annual growth)

Food rbequirement (million 100 133 177 237tons)

Food gap (million tons) 10 23 43 74

Case IVPopulation (millions, with total fertility 494 657 875 1169

rate decligiing by 50 percentby 2030)


Food rgquirement (million 100 133 177 237tons)

Food gap (million tons)c 10 0 -20 -55

Case VPopulation (with total fertility 494 657 875 1169

rate declining by 50 percentby 2030)


Food requirement (million tons, with 100 144 210 280rising per capita consumption)

Food gap (million tons) 10 11 13 -12

a. Population growth at 3.0 percent per annum, as per Annex Table 1.b. Average of 2027 calories per person per day.c. Equals consumption requirement minus production; negative sign denotes production surplus. This equaled the

cereal imports plus food aid in 1990.d. Target.e. Average per capita consumption rising to 2,200 calories per day by 2000 to 2,400 calories per day by 2010 and

stabilizing at that level thereafter.

Source: K. Cleaver and U. Sehreiber, The Popudadon, Agricuiture and EnvWronment Nexus In Sub-Saharan 4frlca,Agriculture and Rural Development Series No. I, Technical Department, Africa Region, World Bank, 1992.

32

Objectivce for Agriculture in Sub-Sahaman Africa

absence of distributional changes there would be thereby lowered to about 2.3 percent per annumno change in the percentage of Africans who are by the year 2025. In addition, this objective willmalnourished and facing food insecurity, but a not be attained unless the growth in agriculturesubstantial annual increase in their absolute is equitably distributed over the population,number. A scenario of unchanged average per benefiting urban dwellers as well throughcapita food availability would imply, therefore, commodity price decline and greater abundance.that in the year 2020, over a quarter of all For this reason, the food security objectivepeople in Sub-Saharan Africa would still be must be addressed through measures additionalfacing food insecurity. to the growth of agricultural production and

The importance of making rapid progress in reduction of population growth rates. Peoplereducing population growth becomes even more unable to produce enough of their own food canapparent, therefore, when the closely-related obtain food security by generating incomeobjectives of improving nutritional standards outside agriculture with which to buy importedand food security are taken into consideration. food. Labor-intensive public works programsAverage daily calorie intake in Africa should be which employ poor people, providing eitherincreased from its present very low level of cash or food for work have been found to be2,027 calories per person to about 2,200 by the effective. In cases of drought and civil strife,end of the century and to 2,400 (i.e., the food aid will continue to be important for bothcurrent average for the world's low-income urban and rural populations.! Poor people willcountries) by the 2010. Case V depicts this need nutrition improvement programs toscenario. Since aggregate food consumption increase their food intake. Preparation forrequirements would rise sharply, even sustained drought emergencies, and action in suchgrowth in food production averaging 4 percent emergencies as is now being provided inper year and a steady decline in the rate of Southern Africa and in Northeast Africa, willpopulation growth to 2.3 percent per annum continue to be important to assure food securityduring the decade 2010-2030 (implying a in transitory crises. A Bank study (interimcontinuous reduction, beginning immediately, of report) entitled "Food Security and Disasters: Athe TFR6 over the next four decades to half its Framework for Action" found that the cost topresent level), the food gap would remain at Africa of droughts has been very high;roughly its present level of about 10 million estimated at $5 billion during the 1980s, and antons per annum until 2010 and would not be additional $2 billion in relief costs.' This studyclosed until about the year 2015. The potential showed that in 1983 and 1984 twenty-fourfood surplus which might gradually emerge countries in Sub-Saharan Africa suffered fromthereafter under the assumption of static average drought resulting in imports of 5.3 million tonscalorie intake would presumably not materialize of grain. In 1992, most of Southern Africa isbecause consumption levels would increase suffering from drought and the grain shortfallabove the 2,400 cal/cap/day level that typifies will amount to about 10 million tons. Clearlypresent average conditions in the developing food aid, and balance of payments assistance toworld. buy food, will be necessary to confront these

It is clear that even with 4 percent annual situations now and in the future. Preparing forgrowth in food production, the important drought, including the preparation of contin-objective of bringing the percentage of the gency plans, will be a part of national foodpopulation subject to food insecurity down to security strategies.zero over the next three decades cannot be Food self-sufficiency is not a useful objectiveachieved, at the aggregate level, unless compared to food security because it does notpopulation fertility rates are reduced by 50 admit that food security will in most cases bepercent and the population growth rate is best achieved by some combination of expanded

33

A Stategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

production of food crops, export crops, other to be abundant for a great many years, such ascash crops, and non-agricultural production. in Zambia and the Central African Republic.Food self-sufficiency, even if achieved in a Technology which is neutral in its additional useparticular country, will not necessarily assure of various factors (by for example providingadequate food to most people in the country. more output at existing levels of capital, labor,The emphasis on food self-sufficiency has also and land use) should be a focus in all countries.led to another distortion. IFPRI has found that In many areas of abundant labor as well asmost developing countries either manage a scarce labor, animal-drawn equipment will becombination of growth of both cash cropping useful because it is so much more efficient thanand food production, or fail to nmanage either.9 manual labor that land productivity gains areIFPRI shows that commercialization of agri- substantial. Often, there are peak seasonal laborculture through cash cropping is associated with requirements that create a bottleneck inincreased income, increased expenditure on production. Technological changes whichfood, and improved nutrition. alleviate these bottlenecks (which increase labor

productivity in these periods of peak laborEmployment Creation demand) will be important contributors to

agricultural growth in most countries. DespiteWith the total labor force growing at close to the need for agriculture to absorb labor at about

3 percent in SSA, agriculture will have to 2 percent per annum, an agricultural growth rateabsorb incremental labor, since industry and of 4 percent per annum implies the need toprivate sector services will not be able to absorb increase labor productivity by 2 percent pera large percentage of the incremental labor force annum, still a daunting task.for at least the next two decades. Agriculturehas been absorbing labor at the rate of about 2.5 Natural Resource Managementpercent increase per annum. In the future,projections suggest that agriculture will have to Chapter 2 illustrated that forest destructionexpand employment by at least 2 percent per and soil degradation negatively affects rainfall,annum, even with population growth rates destroys wildlife, and reduces soil fertility andfalling, and with continued rural-urban migra- crop yields in many countries. The major causetion.'° of this destruction is the combination of shifting

A source of dispute in the literature of cultivation, slash and burn agriculture, andagricultural development is the ability of the destructive logging practices. Solutions willagricultural sector to absorb labor at such a rate. involve the progressive elimination of all ofAgricultural mechanization elsewhere in the these practices. This will require theworld has reduced labor input. But in Africa, sedentarization of farmers (inducing farmers,the unprecedented growth rate of population and though not pastorialists, to avoid shifting bythe labor force will keep labor costs down and helping them to intensity agriculture and bylabor will become increasingly abundant. With increasing land tenure security). It will alsocapital scarce and costly, and land increasingly require improved management of logging andscarce, relative factor prices will encourage fuelwood gathering. Good environmentallabor-intensive agriculture. Agricultural research protection requires good agricultural andwhich is responsive to demand should be forestry practice. Good agricultural practicefocusing on labor-intensive technologies in this from an environmental perspective must besituation, both to respond to future demand, and made identical to good agricultural practiceto contribute to employment creation in agricul- from a growth and poverty alleviationture. Of course, labor-intensive technology perspective. This can only be achieved by rapidshould not be the focus where labor is not likely agricultural intensification (greater output per

34

Objectives for Agriculure in Sub-Saharn Africa

unit land area), growth in labor productivity as growth objective for each country can beindicated earlier, minimum capital and financial obtained only with widespread success in policyoutlay due to capital scarcity, widely distributed reform, rapid development and adoption ofover the population."' In the few African coun- improved agricultural technology, much in-tries which will continue to have unused agricul- creased investment in agriculture and agro-tural land despite rapid population increases and industry by the private sector, rapid infra-agricultural policy improvements (such as Zam- structure development, greatly improved healthbia and the Central African Republic), a greater and education services in the rural areas, andpremium will have to be placed either on en- conservation of natural resources. Africa lagscouraging immigration from more densely popu- far behind other developing countries in fer-lated areas, or on the introduction of labor- tilizer use, irrigation, and in crop yields. Theresaving technologies including mechanization. is therefore a large potential for expansion, toMechanization should begin with animal-drawn catch up. It will not be achieved in thoseequipment. The situation of land abundance will African countries undergoing civil disturbance,be increasingly rare in Africa. nor in countries which fail to implement these

actions. That it can be achieved is indicated byAre the Objectives Feasible? the fact that ten African countries have appro-

ximately achieved it in the late 1980s and earlyThe preceding combination of objectives will 1990s, though with considerable annual fluctua-

be extremely difficult to achieve. Projections of tions (page 23). Despite the potential and theagricultural growth in most African countries validity of the target, many African countriesare lower than the 4 percent per annum target will not be able to achieve this rate of increaseset in this document. FAO has projected of agricultural output. For most of theseagricultural growth in SSA as a whole at slightly countries the prognosis cannot be anything butmore than 3 percent per annum. A continuation bleak unless an even more difficult transfor-of the present approximate 2 percent per annum mation occurs in population fertility, or there islong-term growth rate would not be an a miraculous growth of non-agriculturallyunreasonable average projection. The 4 percent related industry.

Notes

1. S. Haggblade, P. Hazell, J. Brown, "Farm-Non-Farm Linkages in Rural Sub-SaharanAfrica,' WorldDevelopment, Vol. 17, No. 8, 1989.

2. S. Haggblade and others, ibid.

3. This is the finding in the Living Standards Measurement Surveys and in the surveysundertaken under the Social Dimensions of Adjustment Project, Poverty Division, AfricaTechnical Departmnent, Africa Region, World Bank.

4. See The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa,Agriculture and Rural Development Series No. 1, Technical Department, Africa Region,World Bank, May 1992, for a discussion of women's pre-eminent role in Africanagriculture. See also Nadine Hornstein, 'Women and Food Security in Kenya,", WorldBank, PPR Working Paper 232, June 1989; FAO, 'Women in Developing Agriculture,Women In Agriculture, No. 4, 1985.

35

A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Sahamn Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

5. K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, ibid. The population projections account for the projectedimpact of AIDS on increased mortality.

6. The TFR is the total fertility rate, or the total number of children the average woman hasin a lifetime.

7. See 'Achieving Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa", op. cit., February 1992, p. 38 foran interesting presentation of the various elements which can be incorporated into a foodsecurity strategy. It is apparent that all actions which increase incomes, especially of thepoor, from policy change to investment, will contribute to improved food security. Seealso FAO, Land, Food, and People, Rome, 1984.

8. Prepared by the Food Security Unit, Poverty and Social Policy Division, AfricaTechnical Department, World Bank, February 7, 1992.

9. J. von Braun and E. Kennedy, "Commercialisation of Subsistence Agriculture Incomeand Nutritional Effects in Developing Countries," IFPRI Working Papers onCommercialisation of Agriculture and Nutrition, No. 1, Washington, D.C., 1986.

10. K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, 7he Population, Agriculture, Environment Nexus In Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit.

11. This is the thesis of K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, ibid.

36

4. The Constraints to Agricultural Developmentin Sub-Saharan Africa

World Markets and Prices balance Africa's share of the world market forprimary agricultural commodities has declined.

A frequently cited constraint to achievement of The single increase in Africa's share is teathe preceding objectives is the lack of markets (Africa's share of the world's sugar and coarseand low world prices for most agricultural and grain production has also increased veryagro-industrial products from Africa. A good slightly).barometer of potential markets is the past and The commodity price booms of the 1970sprojected situation of international market and early 1980s are unlikely to be repeated. Theprices, shown in the following table. Prices projections above and in the first paragraph ofhave declined real terms in the 1980s, in some this chapter suggest virtually no improvement incases significantly. In each case, although there world prices for most commodities produced inare some annual fluctuations, the declines have Sub-Saharan Africa by 1995. Commodities forbeen progressive from 1980 to 1991. which some (usually modest) improvements are

The causes of decline in international prices expected by the year 2000 include coffee,have been a combination of (a) growth of pro- cocoa, tea, sugar, beef, maize, cotton, rubberduction at a faster rate than growth in interna- and logs. Most fruit and vegetable prices,tional demand, (b) subsidies of export crops by though not all, will continue to be relativelyindustrial countries, including sugar, cereals, solid.vegetable oils, and beef, which reduce interna- These projections face Asia, Latin Americational prices for these commodities by stimulat- and the rest of the world as much as Africa.ing oversupply, (c) the development of substi- Those countries which have taken Africa'stute products in a few cases such as sugar has share, even in the low international price situa-expanded supply, reducing international prices. tion characteristic of the late 1980s, have bene-In a situation of rapidly-declining real prices, fited handsomely. Those African agro-industriesonly the most competitive or the most subsi- which have restructured, increased efficiencydized producers can continue to operate. Cutting and cut costs to survive in the exceptionally badthe costs of producing and processing primary years of the late 1980s and early 1990s, also didcommodities has become common in the 1980s. well, and should continue to do well as realAfrica has not been immune from this cost- world prices stagnate or increase slowly. Manycutting. Successful African examples include the African countries have extremely low produc-cotton industry in many of the Francophone tion costs (low and declining labor costs), closercountries of West Africa, the rubber industry in access to European markets than Asian andCote d'Ivoire, the sugar industry in Mauritius, Latin American competitors, special trade rela-Kenya's tea industry and Ghana's cocoa produc- tions with some European countries, and sympa-tion (see more of an explanation of these suc- thetic donor agencies ready to invest in cost-cesses on page 43). In these cases, market share cutting and improved efficiency. African enter-could be maintained, or increased. However, prises could therefore capture enough of themost of African agro-industry and agriculture projected expansion in world demand in a low-has not been able to restructure fast enough to price competitive environment to contributekeep up with non-African competitors, and on handsomely to agricultural growth.

37


Table 4. 1. Commodity Prices in Constant 1985 Dollars

Projection

Commodity 1970 1980 1991 1995 2000(

Coffee US Cents/kg 314 328 126 132 165Cocoa US Cents/kg IS5 24S 80 85 94Tea US Cents/kg 300 213 124 134 136Sugar US Dollars/Mt 222 602 133 152 175Beef US Cents/kg 357 263 179 178 196Banana US Dollars/Mt 452 361 376 315 284Oranges US Dollars/Mt 460 372 350 315 300Rice US Dollars/Mt 394 414 211 178 197Maize US Dollars/Mt 160 119 72 67 83Palm Oil US Dollars/Mt 711 556 228 235 208Cotton US Centslkg 173 195 113 111 115Rubber US Cents/kg 127 155 68 85 89Logs (Sapelli) US Cents/cm 118 240 213 222 242

Source: World Bank, 'Revision of Primary Commodity Price Forecasts and Quarterly Review of CommodityMarkets - April 1992,' International Economics Department, May 1, 1992.

Table 4.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Present and Projected Share of Primary Agricudtural Commodities

African Share of World ProductionProjected Growth in

World Demand

1969/71 1989 1989-2005Commod*jy (%) (%) (% per annwn)

coffee 32 21 1.0Cocoa 72 59 2.4Tea 12 17 2.0Sugar 7 8 1.9Bananas 6 3 1.5Citrus Fruit 10 8 2.9Rice 2 2 2.5Coarse Grainr 7 8 1.8Palm Oil 55 14 6.0Oroundnuts 32 18 2.4Cotton 11 7 1.0Rubber 7 7 2.0

Source: Price Prospects for Major Primary Commodides; Agricultural Products, FertiUiers, and Tropical 7imber,Volume 11, International Economics Department, World Bank, Dcmember 1990.

The proof that Africa can compete is that (SAPH), the British-American Tobaccomany African enterprises have done it, even company; African tobacco companies in Malawithough, on aggregate, most have not. Most and Zimbabwe; Kenya's private tea and coffeeenterprises that have done well are private. estates; Mauritius's sugar industry, mixedThese include such diverse enterprises as the ownership cotton companies in West Africa,COte d'Ivoire mixed ownership rubber company Kenya's few private cotton companies; private

38

The Constraints to Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

maize producers and traders throughout Africa; presented in the following text which focus onthe horticulture industry in Kenya, Zimbabwe creating policy environments conducive to theand South Africa; private cocoa producers in profitability of private commercial agriculture.C6te d'lvoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Equa- This is vital in providing incentives for privatetorial Guinea, and Nigeria's food crop pro- investment in agriculture and processing. Publicducers. sector agricultural, agro-industrial, marketing,

Many more African enterprises will have to and input supply enterprises have not generallyperform with the better ones to permit Africa to been able to compete in competitive markets.recapture some of its lost market share, ifAfrica's agricultural exports and imports Improved Agricultural Technologies Havesubstitutes are to grow at 4 percent per annum Not Come Fast Enough to Africain a liberal trade and exchange rate environ-ment. This is because world demand for Most of the approximate 2 percent perAfrica's agricultural products is projected to annum average agricultural growth in SSA overincrease more slowly than 4 percent (see the last the past thirty years has been due to thecolumn of Table 4.2). Domestic demand is expansion of cultivated area (at about 0.7likely to increase at about 4 percent per annum percent per annum on average; Annex Table 9)due in part to high population growth, but on which an increasing agricultural populationdomestic production must compete with world (at about 2.5 percent per annum) has usedproduction for domestic markets as well. traditional farming methods. There has also

Several factors could further improve the been some expansion of irrigation in a fewcompetitive situation of African agriculture and countries, such as Sudan, Swaziland, Somalia,agro-industry. Growth of food production Nigeria, and Madagascar, which has contributedoutside of Africa may slacken as the Green to this 2 percent per annum growth rate. ButRevolution slows, as the scope for irrigation irrigation covers only 4 percent of cultivatedexpansion shrinks, as the intensity of farm input area in SSA (Annex Table 8). This compares touse declines in response to the degradation of 44 percent in China and 26 percent in India.the natural resource base in many areas of the Fertilizer use has remained remarkably low inworld, and as farm subsidies in industrial Sub-Saharan Africa; on average 8.9 kilogramscountries decline. Already accustomed to a low per hectare compared to 262 kilograms perinput and largely unsubsidized agriculture, hectare in China and 68.7 kilograms per hectareAfrican agriculture's position on world markets in India (1989-90, Annex Table 8). Thewould improve. On the other hand, technology knowledge-based revolution in agriculture,improvement leading to better and cheaper which was the basis of agricultural developmentproducts is likely to continue to be much further elsewhere in the world, was not brought toadvanced in the industrial countries and in Asia. Africa to a significant enough degree. ThisAfrica will have trouble keeping up inability to keep up technologically is, withtechnologically. African agricultural strategies policy failure, a major reason for the loss inmust be responsive to opportunities. African market shares described previously.Responsiveness to domestic and external market To understand this failure requires scrutinydemand (which changes rapidly), to the of the elements which caused the Greendevelopment of new products and processes, Revolution in Asia. The Green Revolutionand to the acquisition of technological began with important scientific innovations inimprovements which increase efficiency and cut wheat and rice production. It was stimulated bycosts are likely to be critical for Africa. four factors.' The first was the development of

These various factors have contributed demand for yield-enhancing technology bysignificantly to the strategic concerns to be Asian farmers themselves, desiring to intensify

39

A Strategy to Develop Agricukure in Sub-Sahaan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

production to confront increasing land scarcity measures (inter-cropping, multi-story cropping,due to population increases. Where Green use of mulches and vegetation or livestock toRevolution technology took off, shifting maintain fertility etc.). In these places morecultivation had long been abandoned due to intensive production, sometimes based on higherpopulation increases. Second, the prices of yielding varieties, was successful (for example,fertilizer necessary for the production of the maize in the Kenya highlands). The system ofnew cereal varieties in Asia declined relative to shifting cultivation was also replaced by morewheat and rice prices. Third, research modern farming methods among 'progressive'institutions in several industrial countries had farmers in many African countries. Even beforealready introduced varietal improvements in their countries gained independence, somecereals which could be adapted to the African farmers were quick to take up improveddevelopment of new varieties suitable for Asia. agricultural practices. These farmers often hadFinally, the new Asian varieties proved some education, or worked in contact with aextremely responsive in irrigated areas, which modem sector. The modern sector oftenwere large and expanding in much of Asia. consisted of large foreign- or state-owned

The situation in SSA was different in every plantations, and in a few cases, the farms ofrespect. The traditional shifting cultivation and European settlers. For example, a minority ofpastoral livestock systems common throughout smallholders have grown coffee and tea inAfrica were well adapted to a situation of low Kenya for several decades, commoditiespopulation density. The key to maintaining introduced and originally monopolized byenvironmental and agricultural equilibrium was European settlers. The academic literature of themobility. People shifted to a different location 1960s and 1970s referred to this situation aswhen soil fertility declined or forage for 'dualism", and it still applies in much of SSA.2

livestock was depleted. This allowed the fertility However, the limited nature of the modern partof the land to be reconstituted through natural of these dualistic agricultural societies isvegetative growth and decay. For field reflected in the extremely low average fertilizercropping, shifting cultivation typically involved use in SSA, as reported previously. Fertilizer isfarming a piece of land for two to four years, a key ingredient in all modern agriculturalfollowed by ten to twenty-five years in which systems because all impose heavy nutrientthe land was left fallow. As long as population demands on soils.growth was slow and land remained available, The situation of abundant land for a limitedadditional people could be accommodated by population is changing fast in SSA. New landgradually bringing more land into the farming for cultivation has become increasingly scarce incycle. Intensification was unnecessary, and many countries due to rapid population growth.African farmers did not demand the new Large areas of forests, wetlands, river valleytechnologies which permitted greater output per bottoms and grassland savanna have beenunit land area as did Asian farmers. This was a converted to farmland. On average, per capitareason for the widespread failure in introducing arable land declined from 0.5 hectare per personsuch technology. in 1965, to 0.2 hectare per person in 1987,

This system was modified slowly in those compared to 0.2 hectare in India (Annex Tableplaces where population density increased. For 10). In many areas, rural people areexample, in the Kenya highlands, Rwanda and increasingly compelled to remain on the sameparts of Nigeria, where population density parcel of land due to the lack of availability ofincreased slowly to relatively high levels, unoccupied land and yet they retain theirshifting cultivation slowly disappeared. It was traditional farming methods. Many parts ofdisplaced by permanent agricultural systems Africa suffer particularly difficult agriculturalwhich included traditional soil maintenance conditions related to poor soil fertility and

40

Tme Constrants to Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharn Afric

structure, and highly variable rainfall. This areas, making rainfed agriculture highly risky.could be compensated for to some extent when As the rainfall duration has shortened, the foodthere was substantial space to shift to when soil crop cultivars grown by farmers have beenfertility was exhausted but space is increasingly subjected to post-flowering drought, resulting inconstrained. As a result, the pressure on farmers lower yields. Also, early season and mid-seasonto intensify farming is increasing rapidly, yet drought can create serious problems. Underthe evolution to more intensive farming systems these uncertain circumstances, farmersbased on science and technology is relatively frequently hesitate to use purchased inputs forslow. Why? yield increase.

The reasons have been set out in the last * Fourth, in most of Africa, there has beenfifteen years in a vast amount of economic and a tendency for governments to crush individualagricultural literature. A review of some of that initiative at the farm and enterprise level byliterature reveals the following.3 setting agricultural product prices too low, and

* First, the rate of relevant technological by maintaining overvalued exchange rates whichinnovation has been slow, providing only effectively reduce the price of agriculturallimited technology which is adoptable by exports and agricultural products which competeAfrican farmers. This is caused by weak with imports. Annex Table 7 shows the ratio ofagricultural research and extension. Irrigated producer prices to international prices for majorareas which were excellent users of new commodities in each African country. In theagricultural technologies in Asia were not vast majority of cases, African farmers havedeveloped significantly in Sub-Saharan Africa, received only a fraction of the world price.'and where developed, were nearly universally Most recently, this situation has become muchpoorly managed. Inherent soil and water worse as world prices for most agriculturalconstraints to expanded agricultural production commodities produced in Africa have fallen (asusing imported technology were not adequately shown in Table 4.1).considered in Africa. * Fifth, ill-conceived public agricultural

* Second, the poor state of roads, projects contributed to the stagnation. Autono-telecommunications, and posts throughout SSA mous farmers organizations and cooperatives,has created high transport costs, so that modem and farmer participation in the management offarm inputs are costly at the farmgate, compared agricultural development was actively dis-to much of Asia, for example. Crops produced couraged.for sale are also often expensive to market * Sixth, inadequate rural health, rural water,because of high transport costs. Related to this family planning, and educational facilities havehas been a heavy urban bias in most African resulted in a high incidence of relativelypublic expenditure and policy regimes which has unhealthy, poorly-educated people in ruraltended to focus transport infrastructure areas, expanding in numbers at a high rate.expenditures in large mega-cities which have AIDS is becoming an increasingly significant,little trade with rural areas, and which are even in rural areas. Such people are less likelydependent on imports. Secondary towns, which than better-educated, healthy people whoseare collection markets for agricultural products, numbers are expanding at a lower rate, todistribution points for farm inputs and places in innovate in agriculture and in agro-processing.which farmers children could seek secondary The result of all of these factors has beeneducation, have often been neglected. that the rate of technological change in

* Third, during the last twenty years rainfall agriculture has not been able to keep up withhas considerably declined in the drier parts of population growth.Africa south of the Sahara and the duration of Given these constraints, it could be expectedthe rainy season has been reduced in many that rational farmers and livestock owners would

41


avoid the risks attendant upon more modern Bax 4.. Women in Agricathure

agriculture. Markets managed by governmentswere not assured, modern inputs even if In Zambia, women in farm househoWs heded

understood were not always available, or were by males contribute more hours daily than the

not so effective on some African soils and in men to farm work (8.5 hours vs. 7.4 hours) aswell as to non-agricultural tasks (5 hours vs. 1.1some rainfall regimes. Prices were often poor. hours). In Botswana, a 1984 study found women

Another factor which has only been realized contributing almost 70 percent of the value of

recently involves the role of women in crop production, but receiving the benefit of lessagriculture. African women traditionally bore than 15 percent of national agricultural outlays.

most of the responsibility for food production, According to a 1979 census in Kenya, 33

fuelwood gathering, water collection, and percent of all rural smalholder households wereheaded by women. Further, it was reported thathousehold duties. In traditional society this women provide three-fourth of the labor on

worked well, as men had clearly defined and smallholdings and actually manage about two-important roles for the maintenance of famnily, fifths of these holdings. In Congo, about 70

village, clan and/or tribe. However, as percent of the farm holdings are managed by

population density on farmland has increased, women, as the result of significant male

with the consequent increase in soil degradation mi reported on large citil Similar migtion

and deforestation, the demands on women have Zambia.

increased (see Box 4.1). It is more difficult forwomen to maintain the required food production Noe: Tese examples and others are developed in

on increasingly smaller pieces of land. As K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, 7he Populadon,on increasingly ~~~~~~Agriculture, Emvilronmem Nexus in Sub-Saharaforests recede, women must walk further for Oica, op. az.wood. As rainfall decreases and water becomesscarcer, women must walk further for water aswell. Increased work burdens on women make owned by the state or by private enterprises,it difficult for them to apply the labor needed to and farms owned by the elite. Both of theseintensify agriculture. The time constraint faced phenomena have reduced the traditional securityby women has not been factored into agricul- of land tenure. Farmers who are unsure that thetural research and extension.5 In fact, most land they farm will belong to them or can beagricultural research neglects the gender element used by them in the future are less likely toin farming and many extension systems neglect invest in the land or conserve it. Thiswomen altogether. exacerbates environmental problems. Much

A final factor explaining the failure of the African land has become open-access to anyone,Green Revolution in Africa involves changing encouraging land exploitation of the miningland tenure systems. Traditional African land sort. Open-access land tenure has also encour-tenure systems provide considerable security of aged the mining of fuelwood, taken as a freetenure on land brought into farming through good for consumption on farms and in cities. Incustomary rules of community land ownership, this situation, there is no incentive to plantand allocation of use rights to members of the wood for fuel, until transport costs from in-community.6 However, considerable rural-rural creasingly distant wood sources to urban mar-migration has occurred in Africa. Some of this kets become high enough to justify peri-urbanmigration has been from one country to the planting. Although this planting is happeningnext, but much is within countries. Migrants around some African cities and in very denselyoften come with conflicting traditions of land populated areas, its scale is not adequate toallocation. In addition, many governments have arrest the mining of open access forests.nationalized land. Some of this land is In these circumstances, the common failuredistributed for other uses, such as plantations of yield-enhancing agricultural technologies is

42

The Constraints to Agricultural Development in Sub-Sahran Africa

no surprise. To this day, most donor projects maintain relatively high agricultural growthendeavor through combinations of credit, exten- rates (see Tables 2.1 and 2.2).sion, research and integrated rural development, Some of the elements of success in the coun-to introduce agricultural technologies, many of tries with good agricultural performance are be-which are inappropriate or ill-adapted, in part coming more common. First, the policy adjust-due to the continuation of the constraints listed ment process in Africa is underway, and therehere. is hope that the price and marketing distortions

In those few African countries where which rendered technological innovation in agri-population densities have increased greatly, culture both unprofitable and risky, will bewhere road infrastructure has been improved, eliminated in many countries. The progressivewhere agricultural research and extension reduction in such distortions is indicated insystems work reasonably well, and where Annex Table 7, where the ratio of produceragricultural product and input prices are not price to international price of important agri-excessively distorted by government policy, new cultural commodities has been increasing overagricultural technologies have been introduced time. The growing democratization process inby farmers. The best-known example is hybrid Africa, which will give rural people moremaize in Kenya and Zimbabwe. These are influence in government and a greater participa-countries which also happen to have relatively tory role in local efforts, will help sustain thismore secure land tenure systems and excellent reform process. Second, with a better policy en-agricultural extension. Another is the cotton- vironment, investment in rural infrastructure canmaize package introduced by the French cotton bring down input costs considerably. Eliminat-company CFDT throughout Francophone West ing public sector monopolies for input supplyAfrica. A third example involves tobacco and loosening foreign exchange and licensingintroduced by the British-American Tobacco restrictions on the import of farm inputs will beCompany in several African countries. A fourth extremely helpful. Third, a serious effort atis rubber in Cote d'Ivoire. Most interesting strengthening agricultural research and extensionfrom the perspective of poor farmers are the throughout the continent is vital. The SPAARimproved farming practices incorporating soil initiative, as well as efforts to strengthenconservation measures introduced by large agricultural extension, are important in thisnumbers of farmers in Burkina Faso, assisted by regard.7 Just increasing fertilizer use from thethe national agricultural extension service. These presently low levels common is SSA (Annexexamples, and others, indicate that African Table 8) will have a significant impact. Fourth,farmers respond like Asian farmers, if all the although irrigation potential is limited in Africa,elements which permit a positive response are there is potential in some countries. Foravailable. Unfortunately, the examples in which example, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Somalia andthe elements are in place for technology Niger have untapped irrigation potential. Betteradoption have been rare in Africa. on-farm water management is possible in much

of Africa. Fifth, it is possible to expand theProviding Agricultural Technology in Africa: production of high-value agricultural products,The Future which will stimulate growth of agricultural value

added. There is tremendous potential for fruitPutting the conditions in place for stimulating and vegetable production for export and domes-

technological improvements in African agricul- tic markets, for livestock production (mostly forture is the major challenge facing Africans and domestic markets), and cereal production tothe international community for the next decade. replace imports. These diverse high-value com-There are reasons for hope, specifically in the modities can be added to lower-value roots andrecent success of a few African countries to tubers in African farming systems, both by

43


planting on new land, and by switching land to lack of profitability in introducing it, or inabilitythe production of high-value crops, while ex- to introduce it due to other burdens (on womenpanding yields of traditional crops. Efficiency- farmers, for example) as discussed. In theincreases in traditional crops can also improve future, however, they will increasingly need thiscompetitiveness in world markets, enabling technology to survive and to expand commercialAfrica to maintain or even expand market share. production in response to an improving policyNone of this requires breakthroughs in funda- environment and declining land resources. Themental agriculture research. All of it requires best technology in the past, from the farmer'sconsiderable adaptive research and extension, perspective, which was low-input traditionalthe right policy environment and investment. technology due to the many constraints identi-

The filling of the technological gap will be fied, will not be the best technology in theassisted by the inevitably increased density of future if the constraints are removed. Africanpopulation on agricultural land. This stimulus to farmers will respond.Asia's Green Revolution is now arriving in To achieve the objectives for agriculture setmuch of Africa, and has already arrived in out in Chapter 3 requires that each of the pro-places like Rwanda, the Kenya highlands, and blems described in this chapter be addressed.Central Nigeria. When there is no land to shift There will be variation between countries in theto, Africans settle on a piece of land, which severity of each problem, and in the adaptationbecomes the family farm. The need to add ferti- of the strategy to solve it. These adaptationslity to the soil, and to get more output from the must be worked out. However, the action planarea farmed, becomes as much an imperative in to deal with these issues will incorporate theAfrica as it did in Asia, This is a powerful in- elements set out in the following chapter. Thecentive to innovate. In the past, shifting cultiva- action plan is comprehensive and the perspectivetors often did not demand the new technology is that of an average African country, not that ofintroduced by research and extension. They a donor. For each priority, the experience toeither did not need it, or could not use it profit- date, and illustrations of successful efforts, areably due to the inadequacy of the technology, given.

Notes

1. This discussion summarizes an analysis of the causes of the Green Revolution in Asia byYerjiro Hayami and Kewiro Otsuka, "Beyond the Green Revolution: AgriculturalDevelopment Strategy into the New Century", a paper presented at the Airlie Houseconference on Agricultural Technology, World Bank, October 1991.

2. Dualism is the co-existence of "modern" and "traditional" sectors in the same industry,in this case agriculture.

3. For a summary of this literature, see K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population,Agriculture, Environmnent Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit.; and Blackie and Lynam,"The Africa Challenge", paper presented at the Airlie House conference on AgriculturalTechnology, World Bank, October 1991.

4. For an interesting analysis, see William Jaeger, "The Effects of Economic Policies onAfrican Agriculture", World Bank Discussion Papers, No. 147, Africa TechnicalDepartment, April 1992.

44

Tne Constints to Agricultunl Development in Sub-Sahamn Africa

5. K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, op. cit.

6. Shem Migot-Adhola, Peter Hazell, Benoit Blarel and Frank Place, "Land Tenure Securityand Agricultural Production in Sub-Saharan Africa" in L. Richard Meyers, (ed.),Innovation in Resource Management: Proceedings of the Ninth Agricultural Symposium,World Bank, October 1989, pp. 105-119.

7. SPAAR is the Special Program for African Agricultural Research, described in Chapter6. The Bank has a major initiative to develop agricultural extension capacity in Africa,discussed subsequently.

45

PART II

The Strategy

5. Creating an Appropriate Policy Environmentfor Private Sector Farming, AgriculturalMarketing, Processing and Credit

Creating an Enabling Policy Environment notably in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Angola. Wherepolicy is good or improving, performance of

The most important problem facing agriculture agriculture is also good or improving. Notablein SSA is the continued inadequacy of macro- present examples in the late 1980s and earlyeconomic and agricultural policy in most 1990s are Benin, Burkina Faso, Tanzania,African countries, although there is great Nigeria, Mauritius, Uganda, and Guinea-Bissau.variation between countries, and considerable Kenya and Togo have also had consistently goodchange is under way. In African countries with agricultural policy and performance, thoughrelatively "good" economic and agricultural there has been deterioration recently.policy in the late 1970s and early 1980s, 63 The agricultural policy performance of mostpercent of Bank agricultural projects audited by African countries will have to improve consider-the World Bank's Operations Evaluation Depart- ably if agricultural targets are to be met. Thement were evaluated as successful in the 1991 Africa Region of the World Bank has launchedreview of Project Performance Audit Reports. a regional study of the impact of economicOnly 30 percent of agricultural projects in very initial scrutiny, it appears that thoughAfrican countries having relatively "bad" positive in its impact to date, the agriculturaleconomic and agricultural policy were success- supply response to adjustment has been slowerful.' than anticipated. Adjusting countries have

The nature of poor policy differs. In the agricultural sectors growing over a wide rangemost extreme case where war is raging (such as in the 1980s with averages as shown in TableSudan, Ethiopia, Liberia, Mozambique and 5.2.2Somalia) agricultural performance suffers Only 28 percent of the adjustment operationsgreatly, or collapses entirely. In many of the started before 1985 and so the acceleration inCFA franc countries of Western and Central agricultural growth of intensively adjustingAfrica, the overvalued real effective exchange countries in most recent years seems to suggestrate, a continued (though decreasing) heavy agricultural responsiveness to adjustment whenhand of agricultural marketing and price con- it is seriously implemented. Unfortunately,trols, inefficient agricultural parastatals, a behind the averages lies a broad range ofcollapsed banking sector, and poorly-conceived results, with a few adjusting countries doingpublic expenditure programs are the main poorly. In addition, some of the goodconstraints. The result is a lack of private performance of the intensively adjustinginvestment in agriculture, agricultural countries appears to be due to factors in additionmarketing, processing and input supply. to policy reform, such as better research andRemarkably, similar policy problems exist in extension, better rural infrastructure, and bettermany countries to various degrees, but most governance in general.

49

A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Sabaan Africa and a Pocus for the World Bank

Table 5.1. African Agricultural Growh Rates In Response to Adjustment (per annum)

1980-90 1987-90

13 Intensively adjusting countries in the 1987-1990 2.7 3.7period

15 Adjusting, but less intensively in the 1987-1990 2.7 2.2period

5 Non-adjusting Negative 0.5

13 Outside sample No data No data

Note: Inensively-adjuatingcountries include C6ted'lvoire, Ghana, Guina-Biau, Kenya, Madagascar,Malawi, Mauritania, Mkuritius,Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo, and Zambia. Leu intensive-adjusting countries include Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, theCenral African Republic, Congo, Gabon, the Gambia, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia. Sudan, Zaire, and Zimbabwe. Counrries whichdid not receive adjustnent lending included Botawan, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Liberia, and Rwnda.

Disappointing agricultural performance in less competitive and impoverished agriculture,some less intensively adjusting countries has and investment projects which in some casesresulted from policy backsliding. Most signifi- have little impact. A second set of examplescant here are the CFA franc countries, in most relate to the removal of input subsidies before(though not all) of which the real effective ex- implementation of reforms which increase priceschange rate is overvalued. This puts downward or profitability of farming. The results are nega-pressure on real prices for agricultural exports tive for agriculture. A third example is tradeand import substitutes, despite other adjustment liberalization before an enabling environmentmeasures. Also, in many adjusting countries for expanded private sector investment isseveral agricultural policy changes which are created. Instead of spurring investment in com-needed have been relatively neglected, as adjust- petitive agricultural products, reduced barriersment in agriculture has focused to a large extent to agricultural imports in this situation merelyon price and market liberalization (50 percent of causes imported products to substitute for localthe operations), privatization (80 percent), production.liberalized export regulations (40 percent) and The policy package necessary in the futurepublic expenditure programs (30 percent). will probably have to become more comprehen-Policy related to land tenure, farmer organiza- sive: (a) price, exchange rate, and market policytions, private sector development, environmental reform, generally in the direction of liberaliza-problems, role of women, and rural infrastruc- tion; (b) liberalization of the regulatory environ-ture development attract the least attention. ment, financial market reform, including deve-

Another problem in some countries has been lopment of private and cooperative banking;the faulty sequencing of policy reforms affecting (c) improvement of the legal establishment andagriculture. An example is in the CFA franc the rule of law to encourage respect for con-countries in which price and market policy tracts and providing for the orderly creation andreform was under-taken before real effective dissolution of enterprises; (d) active promotiondepreciation of the exchange rate. Investments by government of private investment; (e) pri-in commercial agriculture (tree crops) were also vatization and/or restructuring of agriculturalundertaken before the needed policy changes parastatals; (f) improvement of accountingwere implemented. The result is an increasingly conventions; (g) improved tax systems. These

50

Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Soctor Farming, Agricukural Marketing, Proccesing and Credit

measures are all directed to increasing the pro- Central Africa involving CFA franc countries.fitability and safety of private sector investments Similar constraints to intra-regional trade inin agriculture, agro-industry, and marketing. To agricultural products exist in non-CFA francthis should be added where necessary: (h) land African countries. However, the latter have antenure reform; (i) encouragement of farmer additional constraint which is the shortage oforganizations; (j) incentives and regulations foreign exchange. Foreign exchange shortagesencouraging environmental protection; (k) rural lead to imposition of import licensing andinfrastructure development; and (I) better public foreign exchange allocation by government. Theexpenditure programs in agriculture. restrictions of imports which result curtail the

This more comprehensive approach will also availability of equipment, spare parts, and rawaddress some of the sequencing issues, specific- materials by agricultural enterprises. Thisally by creating the enabling environment for reduces the competitiveness of agriculture byprivate sector investment while pursuing tariff raising costs and reducing productivity. Inreform and input subsidy reduction. Adequate addition, there has tended to be a bias bymanagement of real exchange rates is essential administrators of such systems against importsfor agricultural growth. from neighboring countries, especially for

A last area of neglected agricultural policy agricultural products which are thought to bereform involves the promotion of regional inte- producible at home. To these problems ofgration. A study of the subject by the Bank licensing and foreign exchange allocation areindicates enormous barriers to intra-African added inefficiencies of government marketingtrade in all commodities. The study estimates enterprises, inadequate transport links betweenthat a reduction of these barriers could double countries, absence of export credit insurance,trades much of which is agricultural. Consider- absence of market information and restrictionsable research on this subject has been done by on business travel. Most of these constraints canthe Club du Sahel for Western Africa which potentially be dealt with through agriculturalverifies this analysis. The present policy in the policy reform programs.5 Governments have aCFA franc zone of real effective exchange rate role in reducing the barriers to entry inovervaluation and cross-border trade barriers, marketing, providing market information, andencourages imports of agricultural products creating uniform weights and measures.from outside Africa and limits trade between Not all of the policy reforms identified in thecountries in the sub-region.4 Proposals to preceding paragraphs will be needed in allresolve this situation include bilaterally countries. In addition, the more comprehensivenegotiated or unilateral reduction of tariff and an adjustment program, the more difficult tonon-tariff barriers to intra-country trade within manage it becomes. Hence choices will have toWest Africa, improvement of financing mecha- be made in each country, based on carefulnisms for regional trade by strengthening com- analysis of policy constraints, on the appropriatemercial links (essentially financial market vehicle for supporting the various policyreform), harmonizing protection and regulatory reforms necessary, and on the capacity in thepolicies, investment in infrastructure within a country to manage the reforms proposed. Inregional rather than single country framework, some cases slow reform programs may beelimination of constraints on investment by necessary due to limited management capacity,neighboring country investors, and allowing the or to political and social constraints.6

development of private trade associations cover- Generally, agricultural policy reforms whiching more than one country. A real effective liberate private sector capacity such as price,exchange rate change will be necessary to tax, exchange rate, marketing reform, andencourage intra-regional trade in Western and improved public expenditure programs should

51


Box 5.1. Agricultural Reform - Burkdna Faso

The Agriculturl Sector Adjustment Program of Burkina Faso will increase the efficiency of the public sector and thecompetitiveness of the private sector through privaizing marketing and services, reforming the banking sector,liberalizing prices, reducing the role of the cereals marketing board, eliminating agricultural price stabilizationprograms for grains (except rice) by the public sector, and providing incentives for increased food security in thecountry.

With respect to restructuring the cereals marketing board (OFNACER), the government will lift aUl restrictions forthe circulation of goods within the country. Imports and exports of coarse grains will be liberaized. OFNACER willhave its storage capacity substantially reduced and will only enter the market when technical constraints for storage ofcereals exists.

For rice, the government is contemplating a tariff of 50 percent. The level of protection wiU be fixed during theagricultural year. This is a temporary measure to protect rice producers while they take steps to reduce costs throughproductivity growth and increased efficiency in marketing. In the interim, collection and processing of rice will notbe a monopoly of any government institution and prices of paddy rice and consumer prices will be completelyliberalized. The rice processing company will be privatized. The government's share in the company will be reducedto 25 percent by July, 1993 and all subsidies to this company will be eliminated.

The cotton price stabilization scheme currently in place, where the world price does not have any role in thedetermination of the reference price, will be replaced with a reference price that is adjusted in accordance with themovements in the world price of cotton. Producers wiU receive, in the folowing season, 45 percent of the profits ofthe company in charge of the stabilization fund (SOFITEX). Other reforms in the sector include replacement of aturnover tax on SOFITEX by a profit tax, permission for SOFrTEX to move cotton out of the country before a salescontract is signed, and creation of a planning and monitoring unit for the cotton sector.

Price stabilization schemes and export restrictions for sesame, groundnuts and sheanuts will be elminated. Thegovernment wiU foUow the recommendations of a future price stabilization study, and permit competition inmarketing and production.

The adjustment program includes reforms in sugar, fruits and vegetables and livestock as well. In sugar, theimnport regime of the domestic market will be liberalized. In fruits and vegetables, the government will withdrawfrom the pool of cooperatives, which control a large share of the export market, and import authorization forcartoons will be eliminated. In livestock, the government will eliminate taxes on exports.

The government wiU undertake a study aimed at reorganizing the institutional apparatus dealing with theagricultural sector and will prepare an action plan to implement the reforms.

Soure: From Peter Hael, Agricultural and Rural Development Department, World Bank, September 1992, adapted from theWorld Bank Appraisal Report for 'An Agricultural Sector Adjustmen Credit to Burkina Faso.'

be undertaken quickly. Reforms which use bound manner. It is important that these pro-scarce African management capacity such grams belong to the governments and people ofasprivatization of agricultural parastatals, the country concerned, rather than beingfinancial market reform, policy reform dealing imposed by donors. Without country commit-with natural resource management, and land ment, policy backsliding will take place andtenure reform will take longer. reforms will not stick. Local ownership will also

All African countries should have medium- affect the pace of reform. Reform should alsoand long-term agricultural development pro- be linked to investment programs-hence thegrams in which reforms are specified in a time- importance of the medium- and long-term

52

Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Sector Farning, Agricultural Marketing, Processing and Credit

framework for agricultural development. But being minimized. Reform provides some hopeimpacts of reform can, and are, obtained in the for the development of viable rural creditshort term as well. In fact, policy reform, along mechanismns. However, many of the ongoingwith agricultural extension, are likely to be the World Bank-financed agricultural credit projectsmost effective instruments available to African or credit components of projects still use publicgovernments to obtain immediate agricultural sector lending agencies, though only with thesupply response. Because the reforms proposed requisite management autonomy, positive realhere are so much more comprehensive than interest rates, and effective loan recoverythose found in adjustment programs, the term policy. Whether these public sector creditagricultural adjustment should be dropped in agencies will prove viable or not when sup-favor of agricultural policy reform. ported in a context of finiancial market reform,

Complementary reduction of industrial remains a major issue. For one thing they mustcountry tariff and non-tariff barriers to also focus on savings mobilization in theagricultural trade from Africa, as well as countryside, providing facilities for rural peoplegeneral reform of industrial country agricultural to safely deposit money. They must also findsubsidies would have a stimulative effect on ways of reducing transactions costs through, forAfrican agriculture, by allowing more African example, group lending, linkage to coopera-agricultural production at higher prices. tives, farmers groups, to traders and agro-

businesses which can function as intermediariesCredit and Other Pro-Active Assistance to the for lending. Ways must be found to manage thePrivate Sector risk of defaults caused by climatic and com-

mercial crisis.8 This might be done throughThe major area of pro-active assistance to guarantee schemes. Instruments for lending to

private sector farming, marketing, and farmers who lack collateral must be developed,processing has been through rural credit. Most for example, by using group schemes, or jointagriculture credit projects in Africa have failed liability. The strategy must also encourage(as reported by the Bank's Operations private and cooperative saving and loan institu-Evaluation Department in their ex-post project tions in rural areas. A study is under way toaudits). Parastatal agricultural credit institutions look more closely at these issues.9

have been universal failures in SSA. This Several recent donor-supported credit pro-resulted from the politicization of these jects assist farmer-owned cooperative creditinstitutions since they are owned by govern- institutions, minimizing government involve-ments. This led in turn to heavy lending to the ment. The Benin Rural Savings and Loanmore affluent farmers and to the political elite, Rehabilitation Project now under way is a goodwithout strict observance of effective lending example. The project supports cooperative creditcriteria. Political constraints to loan recovery, institutions owned and managed by subscribersand political pressure to maintain low and from Benin's rural areas, and are autonomousfinancially unjustifiable interest rates contributed from government. Lending is based on savingsto the failure.7 Undue reliance on external mobilized by these cooperatives rather than onsources of subsidized funds facilitated these donor credit lines. Donors provide technicalabuses, and made nearly all of the credit assistance and financing of physical structures,schemes unsustainable. The result was poorly as well as institutional support. Interest rates areperforming portfolios, low loan recovery, and set by the institutions themselves, and are nowheavy financial losses. at high levels to cover costs and risks. Similar

The most recent World Bank-financed programs are under preparation in Guinea andagriculture credit projects have been undertaken Madagascar. Other good examples are Rwanda'swhere there is a process of financial market Banques Populaires, Ghana's Rural Banks,reform in which financial market distortions are Burundi's Cooperative Credit Banks and

53

A Strategy to Dcvclop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

Cameroon's Cooperative Credit Societies investment, at competitive interest rates.(CAMCUL). Ghana's Rural Banks involve Although the focus is on private sectorminority equity participation by the Central investment in agriculturally related activitiesBank as a way of accelerating development. All rather than on developing credit institutions,of these experiments with and without govern- satisfactory financial sector policy or a satis-ment involvement in rural banking are good factory financial sector reform program is amodels which are applicable elsewhere in condition for moving ahead. The major issue isAfrica. the validity of targeting credit to specific sub-

Private commercial banks may also be sectors. Targeting to agriculture has workedassisted to develop rural lending capabilities. well in China, Japan and Korea. The consensusLines of credit through apex arrangements for of agricultural experts is that such targeting inonlending through qualified commercial banks, the context of a reforming financial sector, us-in turn on-lent for agriculturally-related (or ing private banks and cooperative institutionsdesirable in situations of capital scarcity for (and in some cases banks involving governmentprivate investment. Loan recipients should participation), at unsubsidized interest rates, isinclude small-scale enterprises. This may be a necessary to stimulate commercial agriculture ingood way to handle trade finance. Agro- Africa. Targeted credit will facilitate access tobusiness and traders receiving commercial credit by groups traditionally ignored by theloans, can on-lend to farmers. Donor financing formal financial sector such as smallholders,of seed capital for loan guarantee funds may be women and micro-enterprises in rural areas. Itappropriate, initially, to cushion the risk of can help overcome obstacles such as poor infor-lending by private banks entering into the mation, lack of lender experience and expertiseagricultural sector. When combined with in lending to these groups or in assessing certainfinancial market reform, technical assistance to agricultural technologies, and absence of lenderprivate banks to develop agricultural lending, confidence in the borrowers. It can help whereand other pro-active private sector agricultural the formal financial sector is shallow.development efforts and lines of credit throughprivate banks would contribute greatly to private Divestiture of Agricultural Parastatalsagricultural sector development in countrieswhich have a good economic policy framework. Agricultural parastatals having purely com-An alternative where the constraint is not capital mercial activities should be divested over timescarcity, but rather the high cost of lending to to the private sector. African governments ownfarmers, may be transactions cost subsidies, as tree crop plantations, cattle ranches, sugara lump sum per loan made. There are as yet no estates, industrial forest plantations, agriculturalexamples of such World Bank projects in marketing enterprises, and crop processingAfrica. However, several are under preparation, factories of all kinds. Several governments alsosuch as in Guinea, Uganda, Cameroon and own marketing enterprises for farm inputs. Pri-Madagascar. USAID has developed several vatization should start with these commercially-projects of a similar nature which merit oriented enterprises. The reason is that themonitoring. commercially-oriented parastatals have in the

In several countries, projects are being vast majority of cases performed poorly.10

prepared with the objective of developing Private enterprises generally perform better."private sector agro-industrial, agricultural Public sector-owned agro-processing enterprisesmarketing or export crop investment (Zambia, are often found to be over-dimensioned andBurundi, Senegal, Guinea, Kenya, Cameroon, costly, bringing high debt loads and low capa-Madagascar, and Nigeria.) Lines of credit city utilization.'2 The private sector is morethrough commercial banks will finance such likely to better design capacity to fit market

54

Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Sector Farming, Agricultural Marketing, Procening and Credit

demand, and to build capacity more slowly as has up to 20 percent participation in parastatals.demand develops. An analysis undertaken by This equity then can be slowly sold to privatethe Bank of the impact of privatization on investors, or some shares can be given towelfare covering twelve firms in four (non- employees and/or to farmers supplying theAfrican) countries showed it to have improved enterprise."4 In difficult cases, privatizationwelfare 92 percent of the time. The improve- might begin with a joint private-public venture.ment resulted from increased private investment, Government could sell its shares slowly overincreased productivity, improved management time. In the most difficult cases, where privateand better prices.13 In Africa, the British- sector investors are not forthcoming, privatiza-American Tobacco company performs better tion of management can be a good first step, butthan parastatal tobacco companies, the private the process works best if full privatization is setcoffee processing companies of Kenya perform out as the final objective. Where excessivebetter than the public companies in both eastern foreign ownership is a concern and the above isand western Africa. Unilever's palm oil not feasible, giving some shares to employeesplantations in Cote d'Ivoire perform better than and reserving some for sale to nationals maythe government's plantations. The private help. Divestiture can also be helped by initialNamakia Sugar Company in Madagascar restructuring aimed at cost reduction. Restruc-profitably expanded production from 6,000 tons turing should include legal, organizational, andin 1950 to 30,000 tons in 1970, whereas most managerial changes. If labor shedding is neces-public sector sugar companies in Africa are sary, it is often best handled by the state.financial losers. Cameroon's private rubber Changing management and settling the liabilitiescompany SAFACAM is profitable, while the of the parastatal are standard measures in suc-parastatal CDC's rubber operation loses money. cessful privatization, according to the studiesThe worst performing cattle ranches in Africa reviewed. The support of workers is besthave been government-owned, such as in Benin obtained by subsidized shares in the privatizedand Gabon. Privately-owned ranches throughout firms and by the granting of adequate severanceAfrica perform relatively well. packages. Liabilities will have to be settled by

Privatization of an agricultural parastatal is government. Donors can usefully finance thissometimes best done by sale of assets such as aspect.individual plantations, processing plants, or The World Bank's affiliate, the Internationaltrucking fleets. Sales of parastatal assets might Finance Corporation (IFC), as well as similaralso be undertaken by auctioning the whole or donor organizations (Britain's Commonwealthparts of such enterprises. In this way, the mar- Development Corporation (CDC), Germany'sket decides on the sales price. Enterprise valua- Finance Corporation for Reconstruction (KFW),tion by government before sale is difficult and and the Caisse Frangaise de Developpement areoften leads to overvaluation. In these circum- examples) should help by investing in privatestances, few private investors will be interested ventures acquiring parastatals. Direct donorin purchasing. Transparency of the transaction, financing to assist in the rehabilitation ofhowever it is arranged, is critical. Private parastatals by new private owners, as well asinvestment bankers, retained by government, are indirect lending through credit projects shouldmuch better equipped than are governments to be pursued. There are several novel ideas toorganize privatization. create equity investment funds and venture

Where there are fears of excessive foreign capital companies to invest in privatizeddominance of privatized parastatals, some or all parastatals, usually with grants provided byof a parastatal's equity can be sold to the donors. Examples where such investments aregeneral public. Cameroon has successfully ex- being planned are in Guinea, Burundi, and COteperimented with the establishment of an institu- d'Ivoire. Japan is assisting this process in C6tetional investment company (PROPARCO) which d'Ivoire. Donors should also finance severance

55


pay for workers laid off in privatization efforts likely to be successful in countries where there(this is not presently Bank policy). Severance is considerable civil strife. But this leaves manypay is an investment cost in better enterprise countries in which an effort can be made.performance. Finally, donors should foster Interesting projects under preparation or undercompetitive environments by financing compet- way are Guinea Export Crops (see Box 5.2),ing enterprises. Ethiopia Peasant Coffee Development, Ethiopia

A major issue is the likely interest of the Fourth Livestock, Kenya Veterinary Services,private sector in investing in African agriculture Uganda Livestock Services, Kenya Agriculturaland in agriculturally-related activity. There is Marketing and Agro-industry, Mauritius Sugarsome indirect evidence that such investment Diversification, Burundi Agro-industries,would be forthcoming. The first such evidence Rwanda Agricultural Industry, Sao Tome andis from Kenya and Zimbabwe, and from the Principe Private Sector Development, ZambiaIvoirian and Cameroonian experience in the Agricultural Marketing and Processing, and1960s and 1970s. A good policy and institu- Zambia Export Diversification.tional environment in these countries, though farfrom perfect, stimulated private investment in Likely Private Sector Responseagro-industry and marketing. This investmentwas undertaken by foreign and domestic enter- The likely private agricultural sectorprises. Many of the larger investors were local response to an improved policy environment,"foreigners' (Lebanese, Indian and European effective rural financial intermediation, andnationals). That this would happen again in the government efforts to divest agriculturalright environment is suggested also by the parastatals, is difficult to predict with greatrecent experience of Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda confidence. As indicated previously, where evenand Mauritius where appropriate policy environ- some of these efforts have taken place, thements (though still with many imperfections) private sector has responded. Examples arehave stimulated private investment in agriculture Kenya since its independence; Cote d'lvoire andand agro-industry. Significantly, much of this Cameroon in the 1960s and 1970s; Nigeria,investment is by Africans. Similarly, there has Uganda, Ghana, Togo, and Mauritius more re-been considerable private investment by cently. The response has been by both foreignAfricans in Kenya in the early 1980s. and local entrepreneurs, large and small. In

Privatization is already under way in Africa. Ghana and Nigeria, small-scale private agricul-Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 17 percent of tural marketing and processing enterprises aretotal developing country sales of parastatals (373 beginning to flourish under an encouragingpublic enterprises privatized) in all sectors. policy environment.Guinea has privatized the most. Several coun- An idea of what private sector-dominatedtries in Latin America and Europe are far ahead farming and agro-industry will look likeof Africa in this process however (Chile, requires scrutiny of existing private sector-Mexico and Germany)."5 Privatization will not dominated sectors in Africa. Africa containsbe successful where the policy environment does many private sector companies which eithernot permit private sector activity to be profit- produce a specialized crop themselves on anable, or where capital scarcity makes it difficult estate, or contract with farms to produce a crop.for the private sector to mobilize the necessary Contracting companies purchase, process andfunds. This is presently the situation in most of market the crops, sometimes for export. Somethe CFA franc countries. Privatization is un- private companies both produce their own crop,

56

Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Sector Farming, Agriculturl Marketing, Processing and Credit

Box 5.2. Private Sector-Oriented Projects

Once macro-economic policy conditions are ripe, projects which support private sector investment in agriculture andagro-industry will be desirable. Elements of such projects include the following components:

* support to private industrial associations such as fruit and vegetable producers, exports, traders, and chambersof commerce, in providing assistance to their members for investment, market research, trade fairs, specializedresearch, representation to government, and as a source of investment capital;

* support to private sources of technical assistance to private investors through industrial asociations, privatebanks, and private consulting firms;

* construction of essential infrastructure by private sector firms on contract, and managed by these firms to theextent possible. Infrastructure would include storage, port facilities, rail and transport equipment;

* creation of investment and innovation funds, managed privately, to take equity participation in investments,invest in privatized parastatals, and to undertake research into new products. These funds can be establishedindependently, or in collaboration with private banks; and

* privatization of agricultural and agro-industrial parastatals.

Donor-financed private sector operators can coordinate such projects. Because of World Bank rules and regulations,much of the funding would have to be grant and equity funding from bilateral donors, IFC and the private sector.World Bank loans would be to profit-making activities such as credit institutions, and guaranteed by government. Aproject of this type is being prepared in Guinea, with the collaboration of government. Essential to this process iscommitment by government to private sector development, and establishment of an enabling policy environment.

and contract with farmers. do the horticultural sectors of Zimbabwe, CoteAn example of the contracting model is the d'Ivoire and Guinea.

British-American Tobacco company. It contracts At the other extreme are large plantationswith farmers to grow tobacco in several owned by such private companies as Del Montecountries. The company sells seeds and farm in- (pineapples in Kenya), SAPH (rubber in Coteputs, and provides extension advice and credit d'Ivoire), Unilever (palm oil in Zaire and C6teto carefully selected farmers. The farmers sell d'Ivoire) and estate tea in Kenya. Thesethe product to the company at a price estab- companies produce their own raw material, hir-lished by the company. Several public sector ing rural people as laborers - they have beenand mixed ownership tobacco schemes have successful.copied this model, and could be privatized. A Examples of mixtures of company-ownedsimilar model has been employed by the mixed plantations and use of outgrowers are commonlypublic and private cotton companies of western found in the sugar, coffee, rubber, tea, andand Central Africa, by the few privately-owned palm oil sectors.cotton companies in East Africa, and by Del Donors have financed many public sectorMonte's banana operation in Cameroon. Much schemes employing the plantation, contractingof Kenya's horticultural sector is privately or mixed models described above, but with fullowned and employs this model (see Box 5.3), as or majority government ownership.

57

A Strtegy to Develop Agricuuru in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Dank

Box 5.3. Kenya's Horticultural Exports

Among the most interesting private sector schemes have been those for horticultural crops such as fresh fruit andvegetables, mostly for export. Kenya's horticulture sector has been most successful, now exporting about USS108million per annum, and expanding at 11.6% per annum in the 1980s. Kenya's horticulture sector contains about 120private sector companies contracting with more than 30,000 farmners to produce about 75 commodities. Thcommodities include canned pineapples and french beans; fruit and vegetable juice (pineapple, passion fruit, orange,tomato); fresh tropical fruits and vegetables (french beans, chiWics, okra, mango, avocado, strawberry, pineapple,passion fruit), and cut flowers (carnations, roses, alstrocmesia, chrysanthemums, and orchids). Kenya now has morethan one-third of SSA's exports of fresh vegetables (1988), one-half of its exports of processed vegetables, two-thirdsof its exports of processed fruit, and 80 percent of its cxports of cut flowers. These industries often use forwardcommitments under which farmers agree to supply, and companies to procure, a product at a stated time, price andquality. Alternatively, production contracts are used specifying production practices to be folowed, inputs to be used,and services provided by the company, including credit.

Kenya's fresh produce trade began operating on a significant scale in the 1950s. It was initiated by a fewEuropean and Asian trading firms with experience serving the European settler community and the local market forpotatoes and onions. This fresh produce trade expanded in the 1970s with better air transport, better productiontechnology brought by the exporters, and contracts between the exporters and large European, Asian and Africanfarmers. Most trade was based on highly personalized long-term trading links with one or a few European importers.In the 1980s, there has been increased competition among Kenya's exporters, as weU as increased demand in Europe.Contracts with smaDholders blossomed. Government policy has been characterized by non-interference.

By comparison with the fresh produce trade, Kenya's government underwrote initial investments by multi-nationals in the fruit and vegetable processing industry. By the early 1970s, several suceessful joint ventures wereundertaken by the government and multinational companies such us Del Monte for processed fruit. Government tooka minority share, provided low-cost access to land and servicea, helped organize smallholder production of rawmaterial, and allowed the foreign partner exclusive control over factory management and trading. Foreign partnenusually bore little financial risk. Continuous structural change folowed these initial investments. For example, DelMonte shifted its pineapple production to a plantation based, fully integrated operation, obtaining 20,000 acres ofland from Govemment. Other fuUy private ventures began, many depending on various contracting relationships withsmallholders. A French-Kenyan company contracts with about 20,000 farmers for green beans, providing inputs,technical support, and a high price segment of the French market for canned green beans.

Cut flower production and export begun with investment by a Danish Firm (Dansk Chrysanthemumklutan). Thiscompany obtained favorable credit tems, a low cost lease on 15,000 acres, exclusive growing and trading rights forseveral flowers for 8 years, and some tax exemptions. The Danish Govemment provided a subsidy for one-third ofthe investment cost. The industry was so lucrative, however, that by the mid-1980s there were more than twelveflower producers/exporters, including several African owned firms.

The Kenyan experience indicates what can happen in a benign policy environment with good transport links, anda Govemment which welcomes investment by foreign companies with a good marketing network in industrialcountries, and which provides some support. However, to this day only about 7 percent of the total trade is accountedfor by Kenya's African firms. Kenya's Africans have had difficulty maintaining viable enterprises due to lowcapitalization, management weaknesses, and lack of links to foreign importers. Where African companies haveworked, family members living in Europe have been important in managing imports. Long-term trading arrangementsbetween exporters and importers are therefore critical. As a result, attraction of foreign know-how and investment islikely to be critical initially, because it provides the know-how, markets, and investment.

This information is entirely based on work in progreu by Steven Jaffee, Marketing Africa's Horticultural Exports: A TransactionsCosts Perspective,' (draft), Africa Region Technical Publication, World Bank, March 1982; 'How Private Enterprises OrganizedAgricultural Markets in Kenya," World Bank PRE Working Paper /823, 1992.

58

Crcating an Appropnate Policy Environment for Private Sector Parrning, Agricultural Marketing, Processing and Credt

Many of the these public sector schemes ran generally run such enterprises better than theinto financial and technical difficulty, while public sector, and there is a private sector inmany of the private sector schemes not Africa which can be successful when thesupported by donors did well. The picture is constraints of poor policy, inadequate financialcomplicated by exceptions however. Kenya's intermediation and government monopoly aremajority government-owned tea parastatal eliminated. Private enterprises help countries by(KTDA) functions very well. Nevertheless, providing employment, training, revenue tothere are two lessons: the private sector can governments and local businesses.

Notes

1. The countries for which audits were done are: Good policy during the 1970s and early1980s: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Zimbabwe, Togo, and Malawi.Bad policy: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Zaire, Zambia, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Tanzania,Senegal, and Niger. This classification has changed over time with some country policiesimproving recently (Nigeria, Tanzania, Sierra Leone, Zambia, Ethiopia), and somedeteriorating (Cameroon, Malawi)).

2. See Graeme Donovan, "Impact of Structural Adjustment on Sub-Saharan AfricanAgriculture: A Progress Report," Africa Technical Department, World Bank, October5, 1992.

3. Intra-Regional Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa, Report No. 7685-AFR, Economics andFinance Division, Africa Technical Department, World Bank, May 1991.

4. Club du Sahel, OECD, CILSS; "Approaches to Regional Cooperation in West Africa,"November 1991.

5. The West Africa Ministers of Agriculture Initiative, in which Ministers of Agriculturefrom seventeen Western and Central Africa countries participate, is pursuing objectivesof regional agricultural integration and cooperation.

6. See Ismail Serageldin, "Realistic Reform, Factoring in the Costs of Failure," (draft)Africa Region, World Bank, January 26, 1992.

7. See World Bank, "Rural Financial Markets, A Study Proposal," Agriculture Division,Africa Technical Department, October 1991. See also World Bank Operational Directive8.30, Financial Sector Operations, February 28, 1992. These results are consistent withfindings of FAO studies. This appears to contradict the situation of ongoing creditprojects as reported on page 27, in which relative success is reported. This is because thepresent projects are designed in a manner more consistent with the strategy proposedhere, which is having some success.

8. This analysis is taken substantially from FAO and IFPRI material.

9. The Study is being coordinated by the Technical Department of the World Bank's AfricaRegion, in collaboration with the the Caisse Frangaise de Developpement, Netherlands,and the FAO.

59


10. The evidence is set out in Privatization: Lessons of Experience for Bank Group Lending,Country Economics Department, World Bank, March 12, 1992.

11. Ibid., p. 10 and World Bank, "Strategic Agenda for Private Sector Development,"Industry and Energy Division, Africa Region, Note No. 11, March 1992. Both studiescite abundant cases of conversions from public sector to private sector ownership whichcause an improvement in enterprise performance.

12. Yovan Grouitch, "Reflexions sur la Privatisation des Agro-Industries d'AfriqueFrancophone," (draft), Occidental and Central Africa Department, Africa Region, WorldBank, July 1992.

13. World Bank, Privatization: Lessons of Experience for Bank Group Lending, op. cit., p.14.

14. See G. Nankani, "Techniques of Privatization of State Owned Enterprises," SelectedCountry Case Studies, Vol. 11, World Bank Technical Paper No. 89, 1989. See alsoYovan Grouitch, op. cit.

15. World Bank, Privatization: Lesson of Experience for Bank Group Lending, op. cit.

60

6. Technology Advancement at the Farm andEnterprise Level

What Kind of Agricultural Technology for more productive system. In addition, thethe Future? burning adds nutrients to the soil, and permits

production of acid-tolerant crops such asChapter 4 described a major constraint to the cowpeas and upland rice. Once harvested, theintroduction of improved agricultural technology cow pea tops and the rice stalks are returned toto be a lack of demand for new technology by the soil, adding fertility. No fertilizer isfarmers. This lack of demand was associated required. A managed fallow is then undertakenwith a complex set of constraints including low with a legume or grass legume pasture. Kudzuprofitability of technological innovation caused has been found appropriate for this in someby inappropriate policy and more recently, low circumstances. This plant grows quickly,world prices, traditional shifting cultivation and smothers weeds, and is more efficient thantranshumant livestock systems which could not forest fallow in returning fertility to the soil.make good use of many new technologies, poor Tree stumps rot more quickly with Kudzu, andsoil and water conditions, inadequate financial a field is ready to be managed more intensivelyresources for farmers to buy the needed inputs, after this process is completed. A moreand poor infrastructure linking farms to market. intensive farming system is required inThese constraints to farmer demand for subsequent years due to rapid fertility declineimproved technology must be overcome, if after each crop. Possibilities include one ofimproved technology is to be adopted by several agro-forestry systems; tree crops such asfarmers. The policy environment was discussed rubber or oil palm; legume-based pasture; orin the previous chapter. Other demand-side field crops using some chemical fertilizer. Theconstraints are discussed in subsequent chapters: interesting point about this technology which isinfrastructure, land tenure, education, and one of many being developed for the tropics, ishealth. But once these demand-side constraints that it improves on the predominate farmingare removed, then the supply of technology system of shifting cultivation, is low cost, andbecomes the constraint, which is the subject of it could help accelerate the evolution tothis chapter. sedentary farming and out of slash and burn.

There are some "new" agricultural Farmers would progressively introducetechnologies being developed for the tropics. An increased fertilizer use in subsequent years.example is "low-input farming" being developed CIRAD and IITA are developing similarby CIRAD in West Africa (C6te d'Ivoire), IITA systems.in Nigeria and by ICRAF in Kenya.' Ongoing New technologies for millet-based agricultureresearch by Pedro Sanchez, now at ICRAF, is in the Sahel are under development and test atbased in a realistic setting in which the farmer several national agricultural research centers andfirst clears new land, through traditional slash at ICRISAT's Sahelian Center in Niger. Theand burn. Although burning is not advocated technique includes seeding on ridges to reducebecause of its negative environmental impact, it damage to seedlings because of sand blast; useis realistically incorporated in the farming of locally available rock phosphate;system because it is such a commnon practice, intercropping or relay cropping with a legumeand will be a first step in the transition to a (cowpea or peanut); and spreading of crop

61

A Strategy to Develop Agriculure in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

residue on the soil surface. The latter offers such as smallholder rubber in parts of Westsignificant beneficial effects for the succeeding Africa, fruit and vegetable production in Kenya,crop: it adds plant nutrient, reduces evaporative and tobacco in Zaire all involved systemic andsurfaces by mulching, reduces soil temperature, commodity changes appropriate to specificand controls soil erosion caused by wind. locations. It is these types of changes which can

Scrutiny of successful agricultural make a major difference to agriculture ininnovations in Africa shows them to have been Africa. More of this type of technology needs totaken up in relatively narrow areas, suggesting be developed and then extended to significantthe importance of adaptation to specific numbers of farmers.3situations. For example, animal traction was There are several useful ways of stratifyingsuccessfully introduced to a large number of Sub-Saharan Africa for the purpose ofcotton farmers in northern Cote d'lvoire and in technology assessment. One is by agro-Senegal, but cotton farmers in many other West ecological zone. The technology needs of theAfrican countries were very slow to take it up, Sahel are very different from those of the humidand remain so to this day. The CFDT cotton tropics, which in turn are different from thesystem in West Africa2 involves improved large expanse of semi-humid tropics. But thisvarieties of cotton, introduced into a stratification relates to types of technologiesfundamentally altered farming system. Shifting which have potential, and the nature of specificcultivators became sedentary cotton farmers, research, rather than the principles ofusing chemical inputs, and planting according to technology generation. For example, in thehusbandry techniques communicated by exten- Sahel, important agricultural research themession agents. The entire farming system changed will include animal disease, livestock husbandryaround cotton. But non-cotton farmers living in in pastoral systems, sorghum and milletthe same areas maintained traditional farming technologies, small-scale irrigation, on farmsystems, suggesting the difficulty of generalized soil-water management, and agro-forestry forintroduction of "modern" agricultural techno- dry conditions. In parts of West Africa's humidlogies. tropics, the most important agricultural research

Another example of location-specific may deal with tree crops, fruits, and vegetables.technological improvement involves the Kenya In sub-humid zones, various aspects of cerealdairy industry. It is based on cross-bred animals crop husbandry will be most important. But theraised on mixed livestock-cropping farms. variations in specific technology needs and'Farmers are sedentary, often hold title to their opportunities will be enormous. Otherland, grow fodder crops, stall-feed their topologies are possible such as for smallholderanimals, are dependent on artificial insemination or large farm, subsistence crop or cash crop, forservices and on publicly-managed livestock dips specific places and for different categories offor tick control. This is both a revolutionary farmers. Technology assessment and audit,change in the farming system and one involving applied to specific situations, will be a usefulcommodity improvements (cross-bred animals). device to evaluate new technologies beingBut this system has not been successfully introduced to farmers, and technologies whichintroduced on a large scale elsewhere in Africa. are promising for eventual introduction to

Yet another example is hybrid maize in farmers, in each of these different situations.Kenya. It involves the results of a major maizebreeding program, and a systems change for Agricultural Researchfarmers who become sedentary, who usechemical inputs, and who undertake careful Relevant agricultural research is crucial forhusbandry. Only in Zimbabwe did hybrid maize technology innovation in Africa of the type justtake off to the same degree. Other examples illustrated. Before the 1960s, the primary

62

Technology Advancenent at the Faim and Enterpria Level

emphasis of research was directed at export agricultural research. In 1991, SPAAR and thecrops (tea, coffee, rubber, cocoa and cotton). World Bank, with the participation of nationalAfter the 1960s, increasing importance was researchers and administrators, completed agiven to food crops research through rural and study of the agricultural research systems in twocommunity development projects financed by eco-political regions of Africa: the CILSS anddonors. This approach was replaced in the SADC. Similar studies were started in 1992 for1980s by projects financing agricultural research the other two eco-political regions. In theservices at the national level. Many are small completed studies, it was found that all of thedonor "add-on" projects which are grafted on to research institutes were poorly funded,agricultural research establishments and are contained research programs with littlerarely sustained beyond donor-financing periods. relevance to agricultural needs, and did notMost research projects have been identified collaborate. An inventory of the situation iswithout a national master plan. Most summarized in Annex Table 15, which showsgovernments have not been committed to food that no agricultural research system in Africa iscrops research as reflected in the lack of up to present Asian standards, and that onlyoperating funds. An adequate number of trained nine systems meet minimum acceptablenational researchers and technicians have not standards, despite large annual expenditures.been available - those who were trained lacked Important recommendations were made byexperience. There has been little cooperation SPAAR for radical restructuring of agriculturalanong national research pi-rams. African research establishments in the SADC and CILSSagricultural research often suffers from weak countries.'management due to bureaucratization of The fundamental objectives must be to makeresearch by governments which manage or research more responsive to local, national andoversee most research. regional development challenges; to make it

In 1990, the members of the Special fully accountable to its clientele; and to greatlyProgram for African Agricultural Research increase the efficiency of use of the resources(SPAAR) agreed to launch a new initiative. The available. The increase in efficiency can beobjective of this initiative is to increase achieved through: greatly strengthened manage-agricultural productivity by reinvigorating ment; improved linkages of African research tonational agricultural research systems within a industrial country research centers, and to theregional context. The initiative aims at international agricultural research centers;developing regional Frameworks For Action increased participation of the private sector,(FFA) in agricultural research in the four main universities, NGOs; and by improving the workeco-political regions of Sub-Saharan Africa: the environment for staff of African researchPermanent Inter-State Committee for Drought institutions. The latter objective needs to beControl in the Sahel (CILSS) region, the dealt with by financing recurrent costs, andSouthern African Development Coordination through institutional re-organization.Conference (SADC) region, the humid and sub- There is consensus on the main action points,humid zones of Central and Western Africa, and which are as follows:the highland regions of Central and Eastern * National agricultural research programsAfrica (which include the Inter-Governmental need to be based on Master Plans which areAuthority of Drought and Development integrated into agricultural research frameworks(IGADD) member countries. Each FFA would developed for groups of countries (as done indevelop a strategic agenda around which the Sahel and SADC regions). These multi-governments, universities, the private sector, country frameworks provide for sharing ofdonors, IARCs, regional organizations and information and results, networking betweenNGOs can work to enhance the effectiveness of research institutes in the countries of the group,

63

A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharmn Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

Box 6.1. SPAAR's Research Strategies Kenya Coffee Research Institutes, and Zimbab-we's Tobacco Research Institute. Agriculture

Tanzania and Mali were selected by the partici- research establishments which are responsive topating African governments and donors am the farmers will probably do relatively more workpilot countries in which the SPAAR recommen- on soil and water management, farming systemsdations would be first applied and tested. In research, mixed livestock cropping, agro-each case the main thrust is to consolidate reach midlvstkcopng ar-variouh donor prjecthust an govemen actionsol forestry, on-farm processing and storage, simplevarious donor projecsb and government actionsinto a single national agricultural research farm implements and low-input technology.system whose structure and research These are areas in which farmers in many coun-underakings are defined in a long-term master tries have pressing needs for technology. Forplan. The master plan would also define export crops, quality improvements to meetresearch to be undertaken by the private sector, market requirements will become moreparastatals, universities, NGOs, and foreign imporat.collaborating institutions. Collaborativemechanisms between these institutions are to be * The dissemination of research findingsdefined. Restructuring of public sector needs to be improved.institutions is foreseen with focus on the most * The institutional base for agricultureimportant and promising research. Cooperation research in Africa needs to be made more plura-with research undertaken by the intemational listic, including the private sector, universities,centers and research institutions in neighboringcountries is important. Restructuring plans for industrial country research establishments, inter-public sector agriculture research establishments national agriculture research centers, as well asinclude staff training, phase-out of unproductive the government agriculture research systems.staff, rehabilitation of structures and equipment, There are successful privately-managed agricul-full financing of operating costs, and overhaul of tural research efforts in Africa. In Zimbabwe,management systems. Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso,Zambia, Senegal and Malawi are likely to for example, private companies conduct re-follow this approach quickly. A novel feature in search in poultry diseases, hog production, andZambia will be the establishment of a funding sugar. Government and private companies inmechanism to contract research to private and Zimbabwe successfully cooperate in seed re-NGO institutions. search and distribution. Most fruit and vegetable

I research in Zimbabwe is private. The limitedexamples of private sector research show consi-

and the creation of poles located in each country derable success, but only on the most profitableof the group for research on specific subjects to products. This suggests that by encouraging pri-develop a critical mass on each subject. vate sector research, government may be able to

* The relevance and responsiveness of re- focus more on crops, livestock and husbandry ofsearch to clients should be improved by: pro- greatest concern to small farmers and subsis-viding capacity for policy analysis within tence farmers.research establishments; ensuring that the clients * All sources of funds for NARSs need to beare adequately represented on the various con- coordinated to achieve a Consolidated Fundingtrolling bodies of research institutes; verifying Mechanism. This is because present fragmentedthe technical quality of research; ensuring that funding mechanisms do not work well. Recur-researchers make contact with farmers; and rent costs will have to be financed, in part bymaking researchers (and their managers) donors.accountable for the quality and impact of their * All aspects of management of NARSs needwork. This concept is represented by successful improvement: administration, personnel,farmer participation in the Kenya Tea and finance, and scientific endeavors (the latter to

64

Technology Advancement at the Farm and Enterprise Level

include quality control and the establishment of Farmers who are members of cooperativeseffective linkages with extension, input supply, obtain advice through their cooperativeand other services). In some cases, government organizations. Universities and research stationsagricultural research institutions will need to be also provide advice directly to some farmers.reduced in size, staff numbers cut and the In Sub-Saharan Africa, agricultural extensionremaining staff retrained and better paid. has been largely confined to the public domain,

There is as yet little on-the-ground and provided through Ministries of Agriculture,experience with this new approach. or through parastatals supervised by theConsiderable effort will be devoted to Ministry of Agriculture. Usually these structuresimplementing this strategy through agricultural are highly centralized, with a Director ofresearch projects, beginning in Mali, Tanzania, extension in the capital city, and DistrictZambia, Zimbabwe and Burkina Faso, and then Directors at regional levels. Field-levelextended to all of the Sahelian and SADC extension staff are usually based throughoutcountries in the next several years (see Box each country at the local level. The common6.1). A similar strategy will be followed after criticisms of these systems are: (a) the extensionthe completion of frameworks for action in staff are poorly trained and know little moreagricultural research for the humid and semi- than the farmers know; (b) the extension staffhumid zone of western and Central Africa, and are poorly paid and have little motivation tofor the IGADD countries of eastern Africa. share whatever knowledge they do have withOngoing World Bank-financed agricultural farmers; (c) management systems are poor, soresearch projects will be redesigned along these that there is little pressure on staff or theirprinciples. Interesting ideas for contracting out managers to seek new knowledge or to serveresearch to non-government institutions are farmers; (d) farmers are treated as ignorantalready being developed in Ghana, Zambia, recipients of information, rather thanUganda, Zimbabwe and Tanzania, which will be knowledgeable partners in technology transfer;a useful vehicle for bringing in the private (e) extension agents are not accountable tosector. As there is likely to be resistance by farmers; and (f) in some cases, operatingentrenched bureaucracies to the opening up of facilities, vehicles and bicycles are so rare thatresearch to the private sector, the dialogue will the few motivated and knowledgeable extensionhave to be at the highest political level. staff cannot systematically visit farmers even if

they wanted to. The result is typically a largeAgricultural Extension inert agricultural bureaucracy which has no

impact on agriculture.Agricultural extension-the transfer of In the 1960s and 1970s, extension in Africa

agricultural techniques and knowledge to was financed by donors largely through ruralfarmers-is undertaken in virtually every development and commodity developmentcountry in the world. The mechanisms of this projects. These projects had high failure rates.transfer and the organization of extension vary World Bank project performance audit reportsfrom country to country. In some industrial found that in World Bank agricultural projects,countries there are private and public agricul- extension systems were poorly managed, andtural extension systems which complement one technology was often not relevant to farmers.another. In the United States for example, the Analysis by the World Bank of other donors'public sector supports county agricultural agricultural projects led to the same conclusion.extension agents who provide advice on Technical messages communicated to farmersagricultural technology to farmers. At the same were often of an extremely general type,time, fertilizer, pesticide, and equipment purportedly applicable over diverse agro-suppliers provide highly specialized advice. ecological conditions, but in fact applicable to

65

A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Pocus for the World Bark

only a few, if any. A common problem was that How can these successful experiences benoted previously: poorly-trained extension replicated more widely? One approach toagents. Competition between various donor- improving the efficiency of public sectorinspired extension systems was common, often extension in Sub-Saharan Africa is through thewith each providing contradictory messages. For use of the "training and visit' (T&V) system.example, cotton companies would focus on Twenty-seven African countries now use thiscotton messages, rural development projects on extension system. It emphasizes improved stafffood crops, livestock projects on livestock, often management and training, so that well-trainedin the same places. The resulting "noise' was agents with suitable messages visit regularlyoften wisely ignored by farmers. with farmers. It also emphasizes the develop-

This unhappy experience has led to several ment of suitable technology tested on farmers'schools of thought about what to do with fields with farmer participation. Farmersagricultural extension in Africa. One school of themselves will be the final decision-makersthought suggests that if the technology is regarding appropriate technology. The extensionprofitable, farmers will not need extension to service endeavors to assess farmer needs andfind out about it and introduce it. The demand for technology, which is systematicallyexperience with the limited successful communicated to researchers. Researcherstechnology transfer in Africa suggests this view endeavor to provide answers based on existingto be wrong. Hybrid maize varieties in Kenya research, or, if necessary, new research. Theseand Zimbabwe required strong extension efforts answers are then communicated to farmersover a number of years. Even today, not all through the extension service. Extension agentsfarmers in Kenya and Zimbabwe use hybrid also observe best farmer practices,maize in the environments where it is both disseminating more widely the good results fromappropriate and profitable, despite the fact that the fields of better farmers. When the system ismost of their neighbors use it. Every year, working, it is found that farmers themselves willextension services convince more Kenyan and communicate useful information to otherZimbabwean farmers to use hybrid maize and to farmers so that extension agents do not need toimprove their crop husbandry. Recent surveys contact all farmers or even a majority of them.in Kenya and Burkina Faso indicate the high The basic principles of the 'T&V'impact of extension on farmer adoption of management system are as follows:5

improved technology (see Box 6.2). Extension * There must be regular and periodicplayed an important role in the dissemination of agricultural training for all staff in the extensionthe CFDT cotton package in West Africa and service. For field extension agents, this willstill does. British-American Tobacco has a involve frequent training (every two weeks forprivate extension system as the cornerstone of example) by subject matter specialists6 in theits program with farmers in Africa. SAPH, the types of agricultural recommendations they willrubber company in Cote d'Ivoire, has extension provide to farmers. Subject matter specialistsas its core service to outgrowers. Kenya's tea who provide the training to extension agentscompany (KTDA) has an excellent extension must also receive frequent training (say everyservice, much appreciated by farmers according month) by agricultural research staff (and byto the survey in Kenya. Extension appears to be other higher-level agricultural specialists).the major element in introducing widespread soil Training must be practical. Demonstrations inand water conservation technology in Burkina the field are used as a major training tool. AFaso, and in parts of Kenya. Extension premium is put on developing new extensionimproves the quality of agricultural labor-and messages, and on facilitating farmer feedback toeducates that labor. This is a necessary extension agents and through them to re-ingredient of agricultural development. searchers regarding both the impact of messages

66


and specific themes needing research. Message success. One objection made in regard to T&Vdevelopment, modification, and communication is that it is a "top-down" government-managedto farmers, followed by feedback from farmers approach, involving little or no communityup through the system is critical. participation. This critique is valid in the

* Agricultural knowledge is communicated application of T&V in some countries. It shouldby extension agents to the maximum number of not be this way. Where communities arefarmers possible. This is done by choosing organized, they can and should take overcontact groups (such as cooperatives, women's management of front-line extension. However,groups, groups of school children, and these communities and cooperatives will stilltraditional groupings of extended family or clan) need the support of subject matter specialists tofor each extension agent. The agent visits each communicate improved technology to the group,contact point as per a fixed schedule. Liberal and to communicate the group's needs touse is made of demonstration plots to show the agricultural research.nature of and benefit from the technology. All * Extension systems should be designed withfarmers in the group are invited to these visits. a long-term perspective; not in the perspectiveFarmers will listen if the advice is seen to be of of the traditional five-year project.value. If the advice is poor or impractical, it Most recent literature on agriculturalwill not be accepted and this will indicate either extension convincingly argues that extensionthe poverty of the message, or the inadequacy systems need to be even more responsive toof the trainers. When this happens, remedial farmers' needs than the government-managedaction is taken. systems now supported by the World Bank.

D The management system must ensure that Farmers must be more actively encouraged toextension agents actually visit farmers. This participate in message selection and testing, andcan only be done through supervision by higher- in the identification of farm-level problems to belevel managers, based on their frequent visits to addressed by research and extension systems.7

farmers' fields to see what extension agents are This can often best be done through the farmercontributing. In this way, deficiencies can be groups which are already the major points ofidentified and remedied. contact with extension. Groups are important in

- The public extension system needs to be African society, and need be brought intonational in scope. It is too expensive and extension programs as partners in managementconfusing to have several public sector at the field level. Increasingly, the groups canextension systems being implemented simulta- manage field-level extension through farmerneously through various donor projects. A members, obtaining assistance by better-trainedconcentrated effort is required to make public but fewer extension officers. Bringing insector extension work in a country as a whole. farmers as participants requires that extension

* Focus must be directed more than agents offer "menus" of options to farmers, notoriginally supposed to improving local capacity pre-established and homogenous packages. Forto manage extension, rather than introducing example, maize recommendations need toforeign management, which is not sustainable. involve alternatives, including both simple low-Foreigners eventually leave. By using foreigners input practices as well as complex high-inputas managers, the potential of capable Africans is practices, to satisfy a range of farmer needs.not utilized, and can even be repressed. Train- Similarly, recommendations need to be availableing and preparing local staff from the beginning for a large spectrum of crops as well asto manage national institutions is critical to techniques not specific to a crop. Examples

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Box 6.2 T&V in Kenya and BurAina Faso

Analysis was undertaken by Robert Evenson and Vishva Bindlish for Kenya and Robert Evenson, MathurinGbetibouo and Vishva Bindlish for Burkina Faso, to determine the impact of World Bank-financed agriculturalextension on a randomly selected sample of farmers; 676 in Kenya, 3,556 in Burkina Faso. In Kenya, the nationalextension system was introduced in 1982, and presently covers the entire agricultural area of the country. The systemwas introduced into Burkina Faso in 1986, and now also covers the country's entire agricultural area. In the caseof Kenya, it was found that 48 percent of sample farmers had received extension advice at one time or another sincethe introduction of the national system, 90 percent of whom received that advice for the first time after the projectwas introduced. For Burkina Faso, 44 percent of sample farmers reported direct extension contact, 71 percent ofthese under the project. In Kenya, 45 percent of female-headed households received direct extension advice,compared to 50 percent of male-headed households. The system works on the basis that farmers directly receivingextension advice will pass it on to other farmers. The farmers then become in effect extension agents. The resultsshow high rates of farmer adoption of technology introduced by extension. Seventy to eighty percent of sampledfarmers in Burkina Faso, and 70 percent of sample farmers in Kenya adopted the simple technologies. This is greaterthan the percentage of farmers in direct contact with extension agents because farmers are passing messages on toother farmers. However, the rate of adoption declines with the complexity of the extension message. In Kenya, only10-20 percent of farmers adopted the complex recommendations of top dressing (fertilizer), stalk borer control andchemical use. Many farmers are now aware of Lhese technologies (awareness is close to 90 percent of the BurkinaFaso sample, 80 percent of the Kenya sample), but do not adopt them due to lack of finance for inputs, and laborshortages for some recommendations. The greater the complexity of the practice, the more the awareness is ascribeddirectly to extension.

Econometric testing of the Burkina Faso data showed that crop yields are 28 percent higher for farmers belongingto extension groups compared to farmers not belonging to such groups. The results for Kenya showed that cropyields could be as much as 50 percent lower in areas not served by extension agents.

Extension costs in Kenya increased from $4.44 per farm family, yearly, before the national extension project wasintroduced in 1982/83, to an average $5.46 per farm family per year (both in 1991 dollars) in 1983-1991. In BurkinaFaso, costs declined by 30 percent from 1985/86 ($10.40 per farm family per year) to 1991 ($7.24 per farm familyper year). In Burkina Faso, the number of agents was reduced under the system, while they increased in Kenya.Rates of return on the incremental investment in Kenya are computed at in excess of 100 percent. The return to adeclining investment in Burkina Faso is infinite.

Sources: (a) R. Evenson and V. Bindlish, 'Impact Study of T&V Extension in Kenya,' (draft), Agriculture Division, AfricaTechnical Department, World Bank, 1992; (b) R. Evenson and M. Gbetibouo, 'Impact Study of T&V Extension in Burkina Faso,'(draft) Agriculture Division Africa Technical Department, World Bank, March 1992. See also Baxter, Slade and Howell, 'Aidand Agricultural Extension: Evidence from the World Bank and other Donors,' Technical Paper No. 87, World Bank, 1989.

include agro-forestry, livestock-crop interaction, tenance systems and the consequent heavywater control and drainage, processing and demands on their time. In addition to bearingstorage technologies. The establishment of such and rearing children, most African women havemenus is already under way and menus are heavy responsibilities for food crop production,available in many African countries. But further working on men's fields, post-harvest process-development of menus is needed. ing, fuelwood and water provision, commodity

Agricultural extension is being increasingly porterage, and household maintenance. And thefocused on women's needs, using women as burdens on rural women are increasing. Grow-extension agents and contact points. The ing numbers of men leave the farms for urbaninformation needs for women and men often and industrial jobs-in the Congo, for example,differ. This is because of the multiple roles of 70 percent of farm household heads are nowwomen in rural production and household main- women. They also face severe constraints on

68


access to extension advice, institutional credit, and some storage and small equipment techno-and improved production, processing, and logies are likely to be neglected by the privatetransport technology. sector.

As a result of these constraints, women often There are many other innovations possible inneed advice focused on simple labor-saving extension. For example, many extension ser-technology, food production as opposed to ex- vices have become too expensive and restructur-port crop messages, low-input messages (due to ing is required (Benin and C6te d'lvoire are ex-credit constraints), post-harvest food storage and amples where this is being done). More workprocessing messages. Simple labor-saving de- needs to be done on improving the quality ofvices for transport, water pumping, and crop agricultural education, and in using modernhusbandry are often popular with women be- communications technology to reach farmers.cause they save time. It is probably through Many NGOs provide extension services toagricultural extension that the special role and farmers. Collaboration between these NGO-needs of rural women can best be addressed.8 managed systems and the public sector system is

Private sector extension should be encou- needed. In Zaire, where government services inraged where possible. This will usually be for the countryside have collapsed, the World Bankhigh-value crops and for the most efficient and government have agreed that field levelfarmers, which are the areas of interest of the extension be managed by NGOs and privateprivate sector. Public sector extension will be enterprises in collaboration with local autho-necessary for most crops and for poor farmers, rities. Recent projects incorporating some ofleast attractive for the private sector, for many these improved design ideas include Kenyayears to come. Contract farming discussed in Extension II, Senegal Agricultural Extension,Chapter 5 is of particular relevance to extension Tanzania Agricultural Extension, Zaire Agricul-since the private enterprise doing the contracting tural Extension, and Malawi Agricultural Exten-will often provide extension advice to contract- sion.ing farmers. Many of the Kenya horticultureenterprises provide extension advice to farmers, Livestock and Dairyas does British-American Tobacco, East AfricanIndustries in Kenya (for sunflower), and Del Livestock is an important sub-sector of agri-Monte in Cameroon (bananas). In addition, seed culture, responsible for, on average, 25 percentsuppliers will provide extension advice to of agricultural GDP in Africa. The Bank's fund-farmers contracted as seed multipliers. Some ing for livestock in Sub-Saharan Africa fell fromfertilizer and chemical distributors will provide 20 percent of agricultural lending in the 1970sadvice on the use of their products. Encourage- (US$90 million per year) to 7 percent in thement of the private sector in the manner dis- 1980s (US$100 million).9 Many of the Bank'scussed in Chapter 5 will result in the expansion livestock projects have failed in Africa. Aof such activity. Public sector extension services review by the Bank's Operations Evaluationcan both collaborate with these private initia- Department entitled "The Smallholder Dimen-tives, and cede some of the extension functions sion of Livestock" found that for projectsto them, focusing more on poor farmers, and on completed before 1983, livestock projects incommodities and technologies neglected by the East Africa had a 7 percent average economicprivate sector. These commodities are likely to rate of return, and those in West Africa a 13include roots and tubers, many cereals, tradi- percent average rate of return. The Bank hastional fruits and vegetables having narrow local until recently been particularly unsuccessful inmarkets, and in some countries, cattle and pastoral areas and in parastatal ranching. Insheep. Soil conservation, agro-forestry, use of pastoral areas, the failures resulted from poornon-purchased inputs (manure, crop residues), understanding of pastoral production systems,

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Box 6.3. T&V in COte d'lvoire

Cote d 'Ivoire was the second country in Africa where the Bank introduced T&V extension in cooperation withgovernment. At the time of introduction, yields in farmers fields were low compared to those on research stations.

Farmers' ResearchFields Sranon

---------kg/ha---------Coffee 350 3000Cocoa 450 1500Cotton 1300 3000Rainfed Rice 1500 4000Maize 2000 6000

The extension project begun in 1986, operated through three parastaal agencies: SATMACI in the forest region,CIDT in the cotton-growingNorthern region, and CIDV for grains in the South. Two research institutescollaborated(IRCCand IDESSA). A modified form of the T&V extension system was introduced, with regular extension agent visits to contactfarmers, design of extension messages based on impact in farmers fields (impact was poor initially, so the messages werechanged), use of demonstration plots in farmers fields, continuous staff training, and supervision of staff in the field.Important messages related to:

* conon: weed control, soil fertility maintenance, striga control, use of optimal inputs, improved cropping patterns;

* coffee and cocoa: improve plant populations, cleaning, thinning, and pruning; and

* food crops: better varieties and husbandry techniques.

These simple technological improvements were converted into practical messages which vary by level of farmsophistication and agro-climatic zone. They have been adopted by about 595,000 farms in 1989/90 (60 percent of farms),compared to 20 percent adoption of similar messages before this extension system began in 1985/86. Meaurements of yieldimpact, though imperfect, suggest yield improvements of about 15 percent for rainfed rice, 24 percent for irrigated rice,15 percent for maize, and up to 100 percent for coffee. These increases are still far short of research station yieldsindicating two remaining potential for improvement. Unfortunately, Cote d'lvoire's economic problems have resulted inan extremely sharp decline in local funding for extension. Despite this, government has been reticent until recently todownsize the system to a smaller, more simply organized structure, and to reallocate funds from staff salaries to operations.As a result, operations have been greatly curtailed. This indicates the importance of a realistically sized extension ystem,tailored to likely budget availability.

and the assumption that well-intentioned There is considerable scope for meat and dairyGovernment efforts to control pasture use, im- production as import substitutes. Considerableprove animal health, and manage livestock mar- growth in demand for milk and meat is antici-kets, could help. These efforts had little impact. pated due to urbanization and growing perThe parastatal ranches had the same problems as capita income. Winrock International estimatesother commercially-oriented parastatal opera- that demand for livestock products in Africa willtions, and nearly always failed. Dairy develop- grow at about 4 percent per annum.'° Pros-ment in East Africa, animal health and animal pects for world market prices show slowlytraction in West Africa, were somewhat more rising prices in real terms (Chapter 4).successful. What worked best was smallholder On the basis of experience to date," theredairying in Kenya, and private ranches. Para- are good opportunities for viable investment in:statal dairies failed as did parastatal ranches. * smallholder dairy with crossbred animals

Livestock production should receive greater in higher elevation areas using low cost milkemphasis in future donor support in Africa. collection and processing;

70

Technology Advancement at the Farm and Entespriu Level

* basic animal health care including support offset the dumping of milk. Focus should be putfor private veterinarians; on private sector input supply, marketing and

* smallholder cattle fattening; veterinary services. Development of mixed agri-* small ruminants (meat and milk produc- cultural dairy farms on the Kenya model has

tion); considerable potential elsewhere in eastern and* forage and feed production and processing; southern Africa, as well as in the better-watered

and parts of West Africa, with agricultural residues* animal traction for cultivation and and rotations addressing the important feed

transport. constraints. Extension and research services canAmong the least promising activities found introduce such systems. Credit needs are largewere: for the dairy industry. The creation of an arti-

* water development in arid rangelands ficial insemination service in Kenya was also anwithout an appropriate institutional framework, important ingredient for its relatively well-in part because it causes overgrazing around the developed dairy industry, because it improvedwater holes; the quality of the herd. Introduction of higher

* support of government veterinary services yielding cross-bred dairy cows can be under-including vaccine production; taken in the most favorable climatic zones as it

* artificial insemination using liquid has been in Kenya."3 All of the East Africannitrogen; and highlands are obvious candidates. A Bank pro-

* support to ranches, especially parastatal ject in Rwanda is developing this potential asranches. did a recently-closed smallholder dairy project

There is enormous scope for dairy develop- in Zambia which was highly successful. A keyment in areas of high agricultural potential in element in the success of these two projects wasSSA, given the rapid population growth and for govermnent to allow the direct sale of milkurbanization which is creating a strong demand from producers to consumers, without proces-for milk."2 Imports, now valued at about $700 sing. This is fully sanitary when milk is boiled;million per annum, accounted for about 22 more processing is unnecessary. The result waspercent of total consumption in the early 1980s, to reduce marketing costs and to increase theand though declining to 16 percent by 1987, producer's share in the final sale price. It wasprovide a good import substitution market. The also a more efficient marketing mechanism thanareas of high potential are found in much of those established by parastatal marketingeastern and southern Africa and parts of enterprises.Nigeria. No country among this group, except The reasons for the high productivity ofKenya, has come even close to realizing its animal health interventions is due to thedairy potential. The dairy potential of much of possibility of reducing losses due to disease,Central and western Africa is limited by the estimated presently at about $4 billion perprevalence of tsetse and trypanosomiasis in the annum. Extension advice should include animalhumid and sub-humid zones. However, even husbandry recomnnendations." The basic tech-here there are pockets which can be developed. nology is available to control animal diseases,

Dairy development will require an enabling but is not applied due to poor veterinary ser-policy environment for private sector investment vices. Improved animal health care will lead toin dairy production, marketing and processing. better livestock efficiency (better conversion ofThis will include appropriate price and trade available feed), and higher off-take (sales bypolicy assuring incentive prices to producers. farmers). Animal health initiatives which workGenerally, this means allowing a free market include vaccination schemes; (Nigeria, Senegal,determination of milk prices domestically, Chad, the Central African Republic, Cameroon,behind a variable tariff which can be used to and Guinea). Low-cost tsetse control, such as

71


simple screens and traps which attract and kill in which project services and pastures aretsetse flies, can reduce the fly load to 5-10 managed by the pastoralists themselves throughpercent of the initial numbers. These areworking in Zimbabwe, Zambia, and the Central Box 6.4. Animal Husbandry - Central

African Republic. The basic thrust should be to African Republicprivatize veterinary services to the extentpossible, while focusing public services on In the Central Africa Republic, the Federation of

livestock research and extension." Extension Livestock Producers, supported by a herderstraining program, took over the import and

advice should include animal husbandry recom- distribution of all veterinary drugs. Sales increaed

mendations. It has been found that livestock from $30,000 in 1982 to USS 1.7 million in 1988.

owners are willing to pay for veterinary services The operation is self-sustaining, with annual profitif those services are good. Where livestock of $230,000 in 1988.owners are poor, and are for the most part un-

Source: Comelis de ilasn, Livestock Developm2enlable to afford private veterinary care, private and Bank Lendinrg in Sub-Sahamn Affics,' unpiubLishsd

non-professional animal health care assistants note, Africa Technical Department, World Bank, 1990.

can be effective. These "para-professionals" orauxiliaries presently provide animal health carefor village poultry in Burkina Faso, work-oxen pastoral associations. This approach emphasizesin Chad, and to nomadic livestock owners in support to private veterinarians (rather thanCAR, Niger and Somalia. These auxiliaries exclusive support to public veterinary servicesneed supervision and training by professional as in the past), the sale by the associations ofveterinarians.1 6 inputs needed for livestock raising (instead of

Smallholder cattle-fattening projects have sale by governments), private sector livestockbeen successful in Nigeria, Cameroon, and marketing (rather than public sector), andSenegal with stall feeding and fattening of small pasture management by the associations. Tradi-groups of cattle using agricultural by- tional methods of dispute resolution and respon-products."7 This is a good model for introduc- sibility are incorporated into some of theseing smallholders to livestock-raising, and can be projects. The associations should be broad-basedcombined with animal traction. Both credit and so as to involve local communities. Preferablyfeed are required. There is enormous potential they are to be based on traditional associations.for expanded use of livestock for transport in The more limited role of government inAfrica, to serve village economies, requiring livestock development in pastoral areas shouldless financial investment and maintenance capa- be focused on quarantine, epidemiologicalcity than does motorized transport. monitoring, research, and extension. Livestock

Both commercial and backyard poultry pro- projects employing variants of this model areduction can be developed in many countries currently supported in Mali, Mauritania, Niger,when there is adequate supply of feedgrains. the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Uganda,This should be an element of research and Guinea, and Cameroon. They show someextension programs, and should be fully private success, but are highly dependent on the qualitysector-owned and operated. Winrock Interna- of association leadership." In some cases,tional estimates that poultry production, limited government officials view these associations aslargely by feed supply, can be increased by competitors, and consequent government effortsmore than 5 percent per annum. Concentrates to manage the associations are a continuouswill become more important as a feed. problem. Another issue involves the conflict

A new approach to livestock development in between farmer settlers encroaching on pasturepastoral areas was developed several years ago, land, and pastoralists. In many cases farmers

obtain land simply by settling on it.

72


Bax 6.5 Pastoral Associations in the Sahel

Some achievements of pastoral associations are as follows:

* In Senegal, the pastoral associations negotiated boundaries with neighboring groups, and introduced resourcemanagement plans for their village plots which reportedly improved the condition and increased the carrying capacityof these rangelands. An effective functional literacy plan was introduced which trained 9000 pastoralists.

* In Mauritania, the pastoral associations are very actively involved in environmental protection, notably in theprevention of tree cutting and grass fires.

* In Niger, water development is made fully conditional on pastoral organization, and resource management plansare now being developed by unions of associations.

* In parts of Mali, the pastoral associations are now organizing their drug supply and cattle marketing.

Source: Cornelis de Haan, 'Livestock Development and Bank Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa," unpublished note, AfiicaTechnical Department, World Bank, 1990.

Fisheries from foreign fishing, which is necessary sinceforeign fleets are usually self-contained and

The potential of African fisheries"9 both provide little benefit other than taxes andmarine and continental, is large, with a royalties to the countries whose waters aremaximum sustainable yield estimated at 8 fished. Licensing agreements with foreign fleetsmillion tons a year. However, the catch is generally need to be improved. Increasingly,declining (it fell from 7.5 million tons in 1977 coastal states should develop their own fisheriesto 5.9 million tons in 1985) because of capabilities through policies and financing thatoverfishing, climatic factors, and reductions in encourage private sector involvement (asriver flows and lake levels. The value of indicated in Chapter 5).African fish exports is about $650 million a Development of aquaculture can beyear. African fleets account for about 30 percent encouraged in some countries through bothof the total, foreign fleets for 45 percent, inland adaptive research and the extension offisheries for 24 percent, and aquaculture for 1 aquaculture techniques to farmers and otherpercent. interested individuals. Integrated agriculture and

Many African countries need fisheries aquaculture farming packages are of consider-resource management plans that identify fishing able interest. The artificial stocking of naturalpotential and the opportunities for exploiting this and man-made bodies of water has somepotential in a manner consistent with long-term potential. Finally, artisanal ("canoe") fisheriesconservation and with environmental can be assisted through support to organizationsconsiderations. The plans must also provide for of fishermen. This support should also be giventhe necessary policies and institutional to women, who have an important role indevelopment. To date, fisheries management has smallscale fisheries and in fish marketing.been very poor. Off-shore fisheries are exploited However, donor assistance needs to be prudent,largely by foreign fleets with little benefit given the many failures of the past. Fisheriesaccruing locally. investment is a private sector activity.

Systems to monitor and control foreign fleets Governments can regulate, help plan, provideare needed in many coastal countries. Such technical advice (extension) as well as tax.systems will increase the amoulnt of taxes taken Governments should not invest in commercial

73

A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Foous for the World Bank

fishery activities, except in some cases indirectly Many of these issues are created by politics.through support to credit institutions. It is politically more expedient, for example, for

Irrigation and Drainage Box 6.6. Irrigation in Nigeria

Irrigation and drainage constitute both a Nigeria's irrigation potential is between 1.6 and

3technical input to agriculture (water), and a 1.9 million hectares, compared to 174,000 ha which

special category of infrastructure. Africa has are presently irrigated in an intensive manner. Ithas been estimated that irrigated cropping canlimited irrigation. It has 2 percent of the world's produce four to five times per hectare the value of

water storage, but 10-12 percent of that part of rainfed cropping on average, which is more than

the world's population which live in unfavorable the averagc in SSA. The problem in tapping this

climatic conditions for agriculture. Only 6 potential is to keep in"estment costs low in order

percent of SSA's permanent crop land is that irrigation is economically and financiallyviable. Investment costs cannot exceed about

irrigated (Annex Table 8), compared to 26 $4000/ha if irrigation is to be financially viable. Ofpercent in India, and 44 percent in China. enormous interest from this perspective are small-

Africa's irrigation potential is about 20-25 scale farmer initiated lift irrigation from rivers and

million hectares; only 15-20 percent of that shallow wells. About 84,000 ha are already

potential is actually exploited. The potential irrigated this way, using pumps. In addition about

importance of irrigation is suggested by the fact 17,000 ha have been irrigated by farmers using

that irrigated agriculture in SSA produces about quifers in the floor d plaui t5(fad exploit shatmoe

3.5 times more per hectare than rainfed costs are about $1200/ha, and annual operating

agriculture.' costs are $260/ha. The Bank estimates an economic

The performance ratings of existing and rate of return on such investments of about 30%. In

completed irrigation projects financed by the contrast, public irrigation schemes have capitalWorld Bank suggest that irrigation projects in costs of about $15,000/ha. It is estimated that no

WNorld Bankc suggest that irrigation projects In public sector irrigation investment in Nigeria hasSSA perform worse than the average agricul- been economic. Certainly, investments in large

tural project. Many irrigation schemes in Africa storage dams and downstream systems have been

have tended to be extremely expensive by world uneconomic.

standards. Sometimes, this has been due to poor S A Bank Coopersive Prgmme,

information about water availability and costs. igeria, Irrigation Sub-Sector Re new, Report No 89/91

Water distribution systems are typically ineffi- CP-NIR 45 SR, 18 Februas 1992.

cient, due to poor engineering and poor manage-ment. Often, it is a government agency whichmanages irrigation, and these agencies have per-formed no better than the agricultural parastatals governments to invest in new irrigation facilitiesdiscussed in Chapter 5. Farmers are treated as rather than to increase the efficiency of existing'beneficiaries' rather than participants. They schemes through better water demandtherefore, do not participate in managing management policy. Water demand can often beschemes, or in the maintenance of schemes. reduced and made more efficient by increasingOften, operation and maintenance by govern- water user changes to cover a greater percentagement services is underfunded, so that it does not of operation and maintenance costs of schemes,get done. Cost recovery is typically limited, so or by introducing water conservation measures.that farmers do not even participate financially Governments often neglect fee collection, thein operation and maintenance. Government- training of water users, or the development ofmanaged irrigation projects in Sudan and institutions which manage water. Often,Nigeria reflect nearly all of these problems. irrigation projects fail to account for other users

74


of the water, such as domestic water supply, management, and conservation). Generally, thisother countries, or groundwater. Suboptimal needs to be done by river basin. Multi-countryallocation of water is the result. agreements will be necessary since many river

Generally, large-scale schemes have fared basins cover several countries. Efforts toworse in Africa than have small-scale schemes. allocate water rights between countries sharingThe problems highlighted here have been most the same rivers, as in the Nile basin, will havesevere in the large schemes. Many (though not large long-term payoffs, but this may involveall) large schemes in SSA have suffered from technical assistance rather than heavy investmenthuge cost overruns due to poor design and in large schemes. New schemes will bave to beshoddy construction. A common problem in prepared in the context of water resourcesthese schemes is the neglect of drainage management plans, under which water conserva-requirements and salinity problems, thus tion and demand management options areincreasing future costs and diluting benefits. exploited.2 'Inadequate soil analysis and hydrological Less complex, small-scale irrigationanalysis are also common, as is poor schemes, run by either individual farmers ormanagement by government project authorities. communities appear most viable (see Box 6.6 onDespite these common problems, a few large- the Nigeria experience with irrigation). Thescale schemes have had acceptable economic Niger Small-scale Irrigation project is such areturns (greater than or equal to 10 percent): scheme. Small-scale irrigation projects deve-Ethiopia Amibara, Mali Mopti Rice I, Sudan loped in the Kenya Baringo Arid and Semi-AridRahud Irrigation, and Sudan New Halfa. Large- Lands Project are another successful example.scale schemes have the advantage of covering For large-scale schemes, investment in betterlarge areas, and can therefore have a large operation and maintenance is likely to be mostimpact on production. Hence, standard rules in viable. In some cases, expansion of large sys-favor of small-scale schemes only, though based tems may be economically viable. New large-on some experience, are not universally valid. scale schemes are likely in most cases to be

Although experience does not permit final least viable. The result of such strategic thrustsconclusions, new schemes, especially large will be that the 20-25 million hectares whichones, should be skeptically scrutinized. To can potentially be irrigated, will not be becauseresolve the performance problem, much greater many schemes are uneconomic. A detailedemphasis is needed on improved management analysis completed by the FAO for Nigeriaand the improved funding of operation and shows that most of its irrigation potential cannotmaintenance in irrigation projects. In general, be exploited economically. An analysis ofthe idea of maximum ownership and economic irrigation potential in Africa is beingmanagement by farmers themselves rather than undertaken as part of the development of anby government, seems to hold promise. The irrigation strategy for Africa.development of water users groups withconsiderable management authority is Other Farm Inputspromising. Adequate water charges are vital, atleast covering operation and maintenance Technology dissemination requires efficient(O&M), especially when collected by water mechanisms for the sale of farm inputs,users to maintain their own systems. Irrigation equipment, and livestock. Governments inprojects need to be developed within the context Africa have largely failed to provide suchof comprehensive water resources management mechanisms when government itself has takenplans which look at all uses of water (not just over this function. The import, domesticagriculture) and various methods of satisfying manufacture and marketing of farm inputs andlikely demand (supply augmentation, demand investment goods, as well as livestock should be

75


left primarily to the private sector. Governments often inadequate supply of modem inputs due toshould have a facilitating role; to ensure that the various supply constraints-the main ones areregulatory environment does not discourage poor road links and inefficient distributionprivate sector participation in farm input supply enterprises (most often either government orand to provide advice through the extension donor). Not only do these constraints result inservice to farmers, and to farmers' groups the inadequate supply of inputs such as ferti-interested in purchasing and distributing these lizer, but also in the supply of the wrong kindgoods to members. Government research and of inputs, or at best, late delivery. Poor roadsextension services, along with private voluntary also increase the costs of input supply. In theseorganizations, should be active in developing circumstances, it would generally be preferableprototypes of inputs and investment goods to allocate scarce public funds to improving(better seed varieties, new hand-tools, animal- roads, or strengthening distribution networks, ordrawn equipment, cross-bred cows, grain training farmers, rather than to providing sub-storage facilities, energy efficient stoves, hand sidies to farmers for the use of modem inputs.pumps, small-scale agricultural processing Research into better inputs, and the distributiontechnology, etc.). These innovations can sub- of prototypes to the private sector for distri-sequently be produced and distributed by the bution is preferable to allocating scarceprivate sector, especially rural traders and government resources to direct subsidies.artisans. Production and marketing of farm Farmers themselves, either as individuals orinputs and investment goods is among the most in groups, can often participate more fully inpromising for the development of the African input distribution. In the case of seed for"endogenous" sector, since these products tend example, government research establishmentsto be relatively simple to make and relatively can usefully develop improved seed varieties. Insmall, and hence are able to be handled by the case of improved hybrid seed, governmentsmall entrepreneurs and tradesmen. What is research institutes could distribute base seed torequired is the development of a free market in seed companies and farmers cooperatives forfarm inputs and equipment, unfettered by multiplication. Seed companies and cooperativesgovernment regulation, except for that necessary can then sell to farmers. Governments can helpto protect natural resources. This will require farmers to multiply seed for sale to companiesthe enabling policy environment for private and cooperatives through extension. Farmerssector development combined with pro-active and/or private enterprises will have no incentiveprivate sector assistance discussed in Chapter 5, to multiply and sell seed if government agenciesand good research and extension. distribute seed at a subsidized price. In some

A major issue is the tendency for govern- cases, research and distribution of self-pollinatedments and donors to subsidize the use of farm varieties of maize seed, though having less yieldinputs, especially fertilizers. The argument for potential than hybrid maize, may be best sinceinput subsidies is based on the agronomic truism farmers can handle the distribution of seedsthat more use of modern inputs such as fertilizer without distributor intervention.greatly increases production. If a principal Another problem with government subsidiesreason for low fertilizer use (as well as other for modern inputs such as chemical fertilizer isinput use) is a lack of farmer demand for the that it encourages farmers to shift to theinput at market prices, then the use of fertilizers subsidized input and away from unsubsidizedand other inputs can be stimulated by a subsidy. alternatives which may actually be cheaper forThere are several fallacies to this position. First, the economy to provide (such as organic matter,experience suggests that the bottleneck is most inter-cropping or managed fallow).

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Notes

1. CIRAD is the French Agricultural Research Center which manages considerableagricultural research throughout West Africa. IITA is the International Institute forTropical Agriculture based in Nigeria, but with research projects in many Africancountries. ICRAF is the International Center for Research on Agro-Forestry based inKenya.

2. CFDT is the French Cotton Company.

3. For a pessimistic but plausible and well-argued perspective on technological availability,see Stephen Carr, "Technology for Small Scale Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa:Experience with Food Crop Production in Five Major Ecological Zones," World BankTechnical Paper, No. 109, October 1989. For an optimistic perspective focusing on"Sustainable Technologies" see Paul Harrison, 7he Greening of Africa, Earthscan,Paladin Grafton Books, London, 1987. Both capture elements of the truth despiteseeming so inconsistent. Many imported agricultural technologies were not appropriateto African farmers, as Carr shows. However, there are many site-specific cases of highlysuccessful technological transfers in Africa, as Harrison points out. The challenge is toidentify the latter and avoid the former.

4. SPAAR, "Framework for Action in Agricultural Research in the SADC Countries,"Washington, D.C., October 1991; SPAAR, "Framework for Action in AgriculturalResearch in the Sahel Countries," Washington, D.C., October 1991; Carl Eicher ofMichigan State University, warned of this situation for many years, and some of theSPAAR recommendations are inspired by his work. For his most recent comments, seeCarl Eicher, "Revitalizing the CGIAR system and NARSs in the Third World," StaffPaper No. 92-73, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, November 1992.

5. For an excellent discussion, see V. Venkatesan and Lisa Schwartz, Agricultural ServicesInitiative, Report based on the World Bank Workshop held at Lilongwe in 1991,"Agriculture and Rural Development Series No. 4," Africa Region, World Bank, June1992.

6. University-trained agriculturalists (in some countries, the training takes place monthly).

7. V. Venkatesan and Lisa Schwartz, Agricultural Services Initiative, Report based on theWorld Bank Workshop held at Lilongwe in February 1991, op. cit.

8. Katherine Saito and C. Jean Weidman, "Agricultural Extension for Women Farmers inAfrica," World Bank PRE Working Paper, No. 398, April 1990.

9. Cornelis de Haan, "Livestock Development and Bank Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa,"(Unpublished note), Africa Technical Department, World Bank, 1990.

10. Winrock International, "Assessment of Animal Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa"(draft), Morrilton, Arkansas, U.S.A., 1992.

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11. Michael Walshe and others, Dairy Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, World BankTechnical Paper No. 135, 1991; Cornelis de Haan, op. cit.

12. Michael Walshe and others, Dairy Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, ibid. See alsoWinrock International, "Assessment of Animal Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa'(draft), ibid.

13. These prescriptions are derived from Michael Walshe and others, ibid.

14. Cornelis de Haan, "Livestock Development and Bank Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa,"op. cit; Michael Walshe and others, Dairy Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit.;Winrock International, "Assessment of Animal Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa'(draft), op. cit.

15. Winrock International, ibid.

16. Cornelis de Haan, "Livestock Development and Bank Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa,"op. cit.

17. Cornelis de Haan, ibid.; and Winrock International, "Assessment of Animal Agriculturein Sub-Saharan Africa," (draft), op. cit.

18. Mike Speirs and Ole Olsen, Indigenous Integrated Farming Systems in the Sahel, WorldBank Technical Paper No. 174, August 1992.

19. Taken from World Bank, Sub-Saharan Africa, firom Crisis to Sustainable Growth, ALong-Term Perspective Study, 1989, and suggestions made in a communication from theFAO.

20. Akhtar Elahi, Initiating Memorandum, "Review of Irrigation Strategy in Sub-SaharanAfrica," (draft), Agriculture Division, Technical Department, Africa Region, WorldBank, August 1992.

21. The Technical Department of the Africa Region along with the World Bank's CentralAgriculture Department, in collaboration with British ODA and FAO will develop anirrigation strategy for SSA in 1993.

22. Ibid.

23. Derek Byerlee, in "Strategies for Technical Change in Small-Farm Agriculture: Lessonsand Challenges, with Particular Reference to Maize in Sub-Saharan Africa," (draft),CIMMYT, Mexico, August 1992, develops arguments for and against fertilizer subsidies.

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7. Development of Farmer Organizations;Empowerment of Rural Populations

Importance of Farmers' Groups presently have components addressed toand Associations cooperatives or farmer organizations.2

Informal farmers groups can and doMuch more of the task of managing and undertake all of the activities of cooperatives. Infinancing agricultural services will have to be many cases, informal groups existed indone by farmers groups because of the inability traditional societies, and these traditionalof governments to manage and finance all rural groupings (clan, tribe, and so on) can in somedevelopment activity, and because of the present cases manage agricultural services and form theabsence of a strong private sector in most of basis of farmer organizations. They are oftenAfrica. It has been found in most ex-post effective contact points for agricultural extensionagricultural project evaluation that active farmer and research services, and a source of feedbackinvolvement in project design and execution is to these services. The partnership of farmersa frequent ingredient of success. This is often with government in managing services mightmost easily arranged by working with farmers' also help to disseminate simple agricultural andgroups. processing technologies, widely spread in the

Cooperative-owned enterprises are the population. This appears to be happening withcommon formal farmers organizations, women's groups in Kenya and Nigeria, forrecognized by law in most countries. example. Water users groups have been foundCooperatives undertake agricultural marketing, to be effective management organizations forprocessing and input supply activities. They may water distribution at the field level in irrigationbe particularly important when parastatals are projects. Pastoralist associations are effectiveclosed as part of adjustment operations, and management organizations for pastureprior to the development of a strong private management and livestock input supply.sector. But even when there is a private sector, Cooperative savings and loan associations havecooperative marketing, input supply, and often been found to be effective financialprocessing enterprises increase competition, and intermediaries.thereby benefit farmers. Cooperatives can beefficient, using low-cost cooperative member Problems of the Pastlabor, motivated by self-interest since thecooperative members own the enterprise. Farmers' groups are generally regarded inCooperatives are also often found to provide an project design as vehicles for the provision ofeducation function to members, in crop services rather than as desirable objectives inhusbandry, credit and marketing. Nearly 50 and of themselves. A common mistake in donorpercent of Bank agricultural operations in the assistance to cooperatives and to farmers'1970s and early 1980s involved cooperatives groups has been the view that such assistanceand similar organizations.' The value of should be provided through government, andcooperatives has therefore been realized for that the objective is to provide a service of somesome time. About thirty-nine ongoing Bank kind to farmer members of the group.agriculture projects in Sub-Saharan Africa Government staff were often placed in

79


cooperatives as managers and financial creation by farmers of democraticallycontrollers. Government funds were granted to constituted organizations. The donors havecooperatives for investments, and farmers were begun investing more in cooperative enterprisesnot encouraged to put up their own equity. This and in informal farmer groups, as part of theapproach reduced members' management effort to build African capacity to manageautonomy and responsibility. It also did not agriculture. An example is FAO's Peopleconsider the interests that the farmers might or Participation Program, which calls for themight not have in cooperating-the objective involvement of members in the creation andwas the service to be provided. The result was management of rural organizations. Another iscommonly that such cooperatives operated like the effort by the Caisse Francaise degovernment parastatals, with only tepid farmer Developpement to support informal farmers'interest. Examples of these errors are found in groups. The core of the approach to supportingthe cotton cooperatives in Kenya, the farmer groups of any kind is to establish anCooperative Credit Bank in Kenya, farmers' enabling environment for these groups, wherecooperatives in Benin and Nigeria and the governments do not restrict the scope of theircooperative banks in the Francophone parts of business activity.4 On the other hand, farmerCameroon. Donors have facilitated this organizations should not be given monopoliesapproach by providing their funds for for crop marketing, credit, or input distribution,cooperatives through governments, and as this inhibits efficiency improvements by thesupporting designated ministries as supervisors cooperative. This problem exists among Kenya'sof cooperatives. A World Bank Operations coffee cooperatives for example, which have aEvaluation Report found that cooperative and monopoly in the marketing of smallholdergroup development suffered most when these coffee, thus reducing the incentive to maintainorganizations were used simply to facilitate efficiency. The regulatory environment shouldproject implementation, without developing their be very limited. Cooperatives or farmers'capacity to assume management. Where farmer groups should not, for example, be required tomanagement, autonomous from government, undertake economic and social functionswas allowed to develop, and where the farmer peripheral to their business activities. However,organization or cooperative had a business legal protection for cooperative members, andreason to exist (i.e. made money for its instruments for removing unsatisfactorymembers), there was success. The successful managers and employers, are needed.Kenya coffee cooperatives are largely auto- Cooperatives and farmer organizations withnomous farmer-owned cooperative enterprises.3 well-planned business activities can operateSo are the Cameroon Cooperative Credit Socie- efficiently without subsidies, and payties (CAMCCUL). commercial rates of interest. Good management

and financial strength are as important forThe Future: Farmer Organizations cooperatives and farmer organizations as theyas Autonomous Farmer-Managed are for private enterprises. Cooperatives areBusiness Enterprises unlikely to function well if farmer members

have no stake in them, through a financial orThere has been a recent increase in the other contribution. Democratic control (one

number of rural organizations and cooperatives, member, one vote), and the equitableas governments have introduced more liberal distribution of cooperative income are also ofmarketing and investment regulations. The vital importance for maintaining honestrecent evolution of some African political organizations which serve member interests.systems to greater democratization has also Such organizations can have a secondarycreated a climate more conductive to the benefit, which is to teach members democratic

80

Development of Farmer Organizations; Empowerment of Rural Populations

&u 7.1. Cooperatives in Nigeria areas in which governments can help. Thismight be done through a form of cooperative

A study of cooperatives in Nigcria found a long extension, providing training at the cooperativehistory of formal cooperation dating back to site.1907, when cocoa farmers established the first Farmer-managed cooperative saving and loancooperatives. Today there are possibly as many associations in several African countries areas 40,000 cooperatives in Nigeria. The studyfound that cooperatives could fill the void in working well. Rwanda's Banques Populaire,marketing, credit and input supply activities Cameroon's CAMCCUL, Benin's local andcreated by Govemment withdrawal coincident regional mutual savings societies, and Burundi'swith the structural adjustment program. Despite cooperative banks are examples. Governentthis potential, Nigeria's cooperatives are ie agricultural credit institutions have not suc-crisis due to the excessive Govemmentinterferenee characteristic of much of Africa, ceeded (as reported in Chapter 5) while farmer-resulting in limited farmer adhesion. When managed institutions have, at least in thesecombined with weak and often politicized countries. Farmers elsewhere are developingmanagement, and untrained members, most similar organizations: Togo, COte d'lvoire andNigerian cooperatives are marginal as business Senegal are examples.enterprises. The most important recommenda- The World Bank has reviewed cooperativetions of the study are as follows: (a) Govern-ment should withdraw from cooperative legislation in Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria. Thesemanagement, leaving cooperatives to be reviews have suggested the need for major over-managed by memben. This will require a haul in such legislation to allow cooperativesfundamental revision of the cooperative law, sufficient management autonomy from govern-which dates from 1948. (b) A legal framework ment, while establishing legal protection forshould be established which protects members ofcooperatives from unscrupulous managers, and cooperative members from predatory takeoverindicates appropriate accounting and auditing by the unscrupulous, and requiring financialmechanisms. (c) Cooperative managers need supervision and transparency (through, fortraining, which can be provided by NGOs, by example, audit of accounts). Donor projectscooperatives from other countries, and by which finance local NGOs to provide support toNigeria's cooperative colleges. (d) Laws which farmers organizations, tend to be most success-presently exclude cooperatives from fertilizerand crop marketing need to be eliminated. (e) M.5 This has worked in Senegal for example,Support from NGOs and foreign cooperatives and is increasingly the preferred model offor Nigeria's cooperative credit system should USAID, the Caisse Franfaise de Developpe-be sought to assist cooperative credit societies to ment, and German GTZ. Alternatively, a coope-become autonomous member managed banks. rative support (largely training) institution

Soumre:TurcoTurtianenandPekksHussi, 'Nigeria independent from government could be theCooperative Movemnent', (draft), Agriculture focus of donor assistance, which in turn wouldOperation Division, Western Africa Department and provide technical support to farmers organiza-Africa Technical, World Bank, 1992. tions. Donors can also review and contribute to

legislation and regulations with respect tofarmer organizations, to enable cooperatives to

political principles, and subsequently to become operate as member-controlled, business entitiesa force for more democratic societies. Coopera- in competition with the private and publictives and other farmer organizations can only sectors. Donor support to farmers organizationswork if there is a felt need by members for will be a major tool for increasing African capa-them. There will not be such a need if members city to manage agriculture, and improving theobtain no benefit or have no voice in the asso- quality of agriculture labor.ciation. Training of management and the deve- Following at least part of the above philo-lopment of functional literacy for members are sophy, several donors are supporting "coopera-

81

A Strtegy to Develop Agricukurm in Sub-Sahaan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

tance in which cooperative associations from also support this approach, and several inter-industrial countries provide advice and support national associations are involved (the Inter-to those in African countries. The Swedish national Cooperative Alliance, the World Coun-cooperative center is now doing this in Kenya, cil of Credit Unions, and the United States Na-Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The French, tional Cooperatives Business Association). ThisGerman and United States bilateral aid agencies helps avoid excessive government interference.

Notes

1. Quoted in Pekka Hussi and others, "The Development of Cooperatives and Other RuralOrganizations," (draft), World Bank Technical Paper, August 18, 1992.

2. Pekka Hussi and others, ibid.

3. "World Bank Experience with Rural Development, 1965-86," Operations EvaluationDepartnent, World Bank, 1987.

4. Described in Pekka Hussi and others, "The Development of Cooperatives and OtherRural Organization' (draft), op. cit.

S. Pekka Hussi and others, "The Development of Cooperatives and Other RuralOrganizations' (draft), op. cit.

82

8. Infrastructure and Town-Country Linkages;Developing Roads, Water Supply, Educationand Health in Rural Areas

What is Rural Infrastructure? roads use land more intensively, more readilyadopt efficient techniques and modern inputs,

The most basic elements of rural infra- produce more for the market, and employ morestructure comprise rural roads, markets in rural labor. This is because farmers with access totowns, and rural water supply facilities. It also roads then have access to output and inputincludes social infrastructure, most importantly markets. Incentives to increase production andrural health and education facilities. At a some- marketed output are blunted if the physicalwhat higher level of development, it includes barriers and, hence, the costs of moving goodsrural electrification, telecommunication faci- to and from local markets are too high. Thelities, and access to electronic mass media. national transport system linking local marketsDuring the 1970s, when integrated rural deve- to cities and to ports is important to agriculturelopment was in vogue, each of these com- for the same reason.ponents were typically included in the rural Rural transport infrastructure is highlydevelopment package. Rural infrastructure is a deficient in most countries, and throughout mostvery loose concept however, sometimes con- of Sub-Saharan Africa, distances from villagesceived narrowly to include only roads and water to major towns and to all-weather roads aresupply and sometimes to include social infra- substantial. Rural road density has beenstructure. The use here is brad to capture the estimated at about 32 m/km2 in Western Africaconcept that the inputs necessary for agricultural and 36 m/km2 in eastern and southern Africa.development are broad indeed. Agriculture Moreover, Nigeria, Cameroon and Cotecannot be developed in isolation from physical d'Ivoire account for more than half the ruralinfrastructure development, rural health and roads in Western Africa. Tanzania, Zaire,education, or even from sound urban develop- Zimbabwe, and Madagascar have more thanment policy. two-thirds of the rural roads in eastern and

southern Africa between them.3 In Nigeria,Transport with its fairly dense network of rural roads (by

African standards), rural road density today isThe importance of transport rural about 90 m/km2 , barely equal to that of India in

infrastructure for agricultural development is 1951. A reasonable target density, based onwell- established. Recent research in Asia found Indian areas with comparable populationthat in villages with better access to roads, densities would be 730 in/k 2 .' Where ruralfertilizer costs were 14 percent lower, wages roads exist, they are often poorly maintained.were 12 percent higher, and crop output was 32 Indeed, maintenance standards have deterioratedpercent higher.' Research in a number of SSA considerably during the 1980s: 42 percent ofcountries has shown that adequate transport unpaved roads in West Africa and 47 percent inlinks to product markets stimulate agricultural East Africa were in poor condition in 1988,intensification-even where population densities compared with 28 percent and 44 percent,are comparatively low.2 Farmers with access to respectively, in 1984.'

83

A Strategy to Dcvelop Agriculturc in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

The availability and reliability of transport transport, especially animal-drawn implements,services is often further compromised by and off-road transport. Governmental involve-restrictive transport sector policies and trucking ment in these areas would have to be largelyregulations. Transport monopolies, for example, facilitative and promotional. Improvements inare often granted to parastatal companies or to off-road transport are essential for rural people'swell-connected individuals, and entry into the well-being and productivity. The extremely poorindustry is often restricted even where it would state of off-road transport in much of Sub-be highly beneficial. Inefficient procurement and Saharan Africa severely reduces the timelinessdistribution of motor fuels by monopolistic and quantities of agricultural inputs and outputsparastatals is often another impediment to the moved to and from motorable roads, thus actingexpansion of transport companies. Price controls as a powerful brake on agricultural productivityon motor fuels tend to reduce fuel availability in and growth.6 Rural women, in particular, willthe countryside because they make it unprofit- benefit very considerably from such improve-able to invest in transporting and selling motor ments.fuels in locations distant from the port cities. Although rural roads and secondary roads

As a result of these various constraints, connecting the countryside to cities and towns isagricultural markets are poorly integrated, inter- the immediately critical transport requirementregional and inter-seasonal price variations are for agriculture, the picture is more complicated.far greater than they would be in the presence Agriculture is partly dependent on exports inof efficient transport facilities, and incentives to much of Africa. The development of majorswitch from subsistence to market production infrastructure such as primary roads and ports isare often weak. Where there is surplus farm important in reducing the cost of exportedproduce, it often has to be carried over products necessary to stay competitive in worldconsiderable distances to markets or to roadsides markets. Furthermore, farmers need informationfrom where vehicles can move it to processing about technical options and market oppor-facilities and/or consuming centers. Women tunities. Improved communications morebear the brunt of the rural transport burden generally are therefore required, includingsince much of rural commodity transport (water, telecommunications and access to electronicfuel, farm inputs and farm produce) is done in mass media. The point here is that agriculture isthe form of headloading by women. Studies intimately linked to the development of anthroughout SSA show that women and older economy, and its infrastructure, in total. It willgirls carry loads of 10-25 kilograms (sometimes be argued subsequently, however, that roadsas much as 40 kilograms) and can manage 3-5 serving rural areas have in the majority of caseskilometers per hour, depending on terrain and been the most neglected.load weight. Strategies for investment, operation and

Rural roads and improved tracks navigable maintenance of road development are beyondfor animal-drawn vehicles are crucial for rural the scope of this strategy paper. In general, itdevelopment. Planning, construction and main- has been found that important elements aretenance should involve the local communities as (a) good planning with government involvement;well as local contractors and technicians. This (b) construction and maintenance of majorwill help ensure that siting is in accordance with infrastructure by private contractors supervisedlocal needs and that construction and main- by the most decentralized government unitstenance makes maximum use of labor-intensive possible; and (c) construction of rural roads bytechniques to keep down costs and provide local either private contractors or rural communities,off-season employment. and maintenance in partnership with local

Major efforts are also needed to promote the communities. The local administrations found atuse of locally appropriate intermediate means of the community or county level are often best

84

Infrastructure and Town-Country Linkages; Developing Roads, Water Supply, Education and Health in Rural Areas

able to contract and supervise the building and human use can be used instead for othermaintaining of rural roads. An excellent productive activities, attending school orexample of a workable system of this sort is technical training, tending to children's healthfound in Senegal where small contractors are and education needs, or simply rest and re-hired by a public organization (AGETIP) to cuperation. Rural water supply investments mustconstruct and maintain roads. be planned and implemented, if not operated

with and by local women.Water Supply It is for the preceding reasons that rural

water supply was often developed in ruralThe rural water supply situation constitutes development projects during the 1970s, recog-

another key constraint to rural development. nizing the important links between agriculturalLess than 20 percent of Nigeria's rural labor productivity and access to safe water, inpopulation, for instance, have convenient access addition to the intrinsic human welfare benefitsto safe water. There is a direct link between of water. These projects tended not to work wellsafe potable water and the reduction of infant because rural development authorities andmortality. Water-borne and water-related governments were ill-equipped to developpathogens are major causes of seasonally or appropriate water technologies, or to undertakepermanently debilitating diseases which severely construction and maintenance. More recentaffect agricultural labor productivity. views of development suggest that rural water

Women's stake in convenient access to safe supply is sufficiently complicated to requirewater and sanitation facilities is particularly self-standing water development programs. Thehigh, given their almost exclusive responsibility best results are obtained by a combination offor collecting, transporting, boiling and storing government or local community contracting withwater for drinking and cooking and for washing private suppliers who undertake to equip localhousehold effects and laundry, for disposing of villages, communities or farms. These con-waste water, and for maintaining household tractors will often be artisans. Governments cansanitation standards and facilities. Access to obtain prototype pumps or other equipment fromsufficient quantities of quality water is an donors. Maintenance is best done by ownersincreasingly more time-consuming problem for (which are often local communities), sometimesmany rural women. Assuming a daily contracting with private suppliers.requirement of about 10 liters of water perperson, a six-member household needs 60 liters Rural Health and Educationof water daily-almost 22 tons of water eachyear. If a women carries 20 liters of water per There is some argument about whether socialtrip, this implies that she would have to make infrastructure development in rural areas shouldthree trips daily to the water source. If the water be part of an agricultural strategy. Thesource is 20 minutes away from the home, argument in favor is that expanding numbers ofabout two hours daily will be needed to meet uneducated, unhealthy rural people are unlikelythe household's water needs. to be able to develop agriculture at the

Convenient sources of safe water are of necessary speed. AIDS makes this situation allenormous importance to improve human health the more apparent. A more slowly expanding,and, hence, agricultural labor productivity, and better educated and healthy rural populationto contribute substantially to a reduction in would be better able to develop agriculture. Theinfant mortality. A major benefit to women and reason for including population policy as angirls resulting from better access to safe water agricultural input is that rapid population growthis that time formerly spent fetching water from superimposed on only slowly changing agri-distant sources and preparing such water for cultural, land tenure, and fuelwood-gathering

85


practices is contributing to deterioration of the Food and Nutritionrural environment. This in turn is inhibitingagricultural growth. Furthermore, agricultural Closely related to improving rural health andgrowth must be faster to feed and employ a education is assuring adequate quantities of foodmore rapidly expanding population. and nutrition. This was established as a separate

Analysis under way in the World Bank objective from agricultural growth in Chapter 3,suggests that one of the most important explana- although the most important solution is ex-tory variables for variations in crop yields over panded agricultural production. To this extent,time and between countries is the level of agricultural development contributes to foodeducation of the rural population (the other security. However, improving the food securityimportant variables are climate and the poiicy of rural peoples is also an input to production,environment). Educated farmers are more pro- for the same reason that improved health is anductive than uneducated farmers, with other input. Better-fed rural people are likely to befactors affecting agriculture held constant. healthier and more productive. In addition, withEducation is therefore an input to agriculture in their food security assured, they are more likelythe same manner as is infrastructure, irrigation to take the risks of agricultural innovation.water, or fertilizer. Similarly, healthy agri- As discussed in Chapter 3, the food securitycultural workers will be more productive than problem takes an agricultural strategy paper farunhealthy workers. afield, since there are important elements of

Rural health and education must be food security which are not related to agricul-concerned with reducing the rate of growth of ture. In cases of transitory food insecurity duepopulation. A good target would be for to drought or civil war, food aid will be thepopulation growth rates to fall to about 2.3 most important element of a food securitypercent per annum within the next thirty years.7 strategy. Public works programs which hireThis can be done by focusing more on creating poor people, providing cash which can be useda demand by individual Africans for smaller to buy food, or providing food for work can befamilies. This in turn will require better important in both transitory food crises, and toeducation programs, targeted more to young deal with more chronic problems of localizedwomen. Second, better health care services food deficiencies. For chronically poor people,which increase the likelihood of child survival unable to obtain sufficient food, a povertyreduce the demand for large families. This is alleviation strategy is likely to be necessary, thebecause one cause of high demand for children content of which is beyond the scope of thisby Africans is to assure the survival of at least paper.' Food subsidies, feeding programs, andsome children, given the generally high infant other nutrition interventions are likely to bemortality rate. Information provided through justifiable in addressing the special needs offamily planning about benefits of smaller these hard to reach people. Some projects havefamilies will be necessary. This is also essential used social funds or micro-enterprise funds toto combat AIDS. It is important to reduce provide productive jobs for the poor. In thewomen's work burden as an incentive for Cameroon Food Security Project, localreducing the demand for children as child labor. communities will manage rural infrastructure

This strategy paper is not the place to develop construction and maintenance that they them-population policy which transcends the needs of selves identify as needed, and will pay for halfagriculture alone. The lesson is that the concept of such infrastructure. A fund set up to financeof what constitutes an agricultural input must this work provides the other half of theexpand to include factors such as education, resources as a grant. Local communities alsohealth and family planning facilities. furnish their labor.

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Infrstructure and Town-Country Linhges; Developing Roads, Water Supply, Education and Health in Rural Ara

In some areas, food supply is sufficient, sector to freely invest in food storage, and toincomes are adequate, yet food intake is profit from price fluctuations so that they havequalitatively inadequate. In these places, an incentive to maintain stocks. Investment innutrition education, and in some cases, feeding infrastructure necessary to market and distributeprograms, will be necessary. Often, young food, including food aid, is necessary. When achildren and pregnant mothers in poor areas are crisis comes at the national level which localfound to have serious dietary deficiencies, which private stocks cannot handle, it will be bestcan be resolved by nutrition education and in handled by importing more food. Storage ofsome cases by dietary supplements distributed money needed to buy food is cheaper thanby health centers, for example. Rural health storing the food itself. In fact, storage of moneydispensaries can operate nutrition extension returns interest. Imported food can be obtainedsystems, providing nutrition advice to patients at relatively short notice, if there are the fundscoming for treatment, or to pregnant women to buy it. Storage then can be left in the handscoming for consultation. Dietary supplements of the private, cooperative and farming sectors.can also be provided from these centers, or sold The role of government is then confined toas parts of products in food as is done in many providing market information, allocatingindustrial countries. adequate foreign exchange and constructing and

To combat the effects of temporary food maintaining major infrastructure.shortfalls, food storage facilities will be In countries which have a chronic foodnecessary at the farm, village, town and city deficit at the national level, due to civil strife,level. These hold the buffer stocks of food for example, the private sector will probably notneeded between the onset of food shortfalls and be up to the task of maintaining the needed foodthe arrival of aid, imports, or food from security buffer. In these cases food aid iselsewhere. Generally farmers, traders, grain continuous, and government must have a moremillers, and processing companies will invest in active role, in collaboration with donors, in foodsufficient storage, if price policy makes such distribution.9 However, this needs to be seen asinvestment profitable and if financing to a temporary expedient, required because of civilconstruct storage facilities is available. This strife, or an extraordinary calamity such as anprivate and cooperative storage is generally not unusual drought. A plan for phasing outsufficient in situations of government price extraordinary government involvement in foodcontrols because investors cannot make money storage and distribution should be established.from their storage in times of food shortfall.

Since constraints to private and cooperative An Urban Strategy Which Promotesfood storage have been common in Africa, Agricultural Developmentmany African governments have responded byconstructing their own grain storage facilities During the past three decades, the urbanand managing often large buffer stocks. Once population of Sub-Saharan Africa has beenthis happens, any remaining incentive for the growing roughly twice as fast as its totalprivate sector to undertake these investments is population. The rapid growth of cities is due noteliminated, because release of government grain only to the persistent high fertility rates stillin time of drought will eliminate all private observed among urban women in Sub-Saharanprofit from the situation. The best policy will Africa, but in large part to the very high rate ofgenerally be to eliminate government grain rural-urban migration. This "land-flight' isstorage facilities, by selling them to the private caused in part by the strong urban biasesand cooperative sectors. Price, trade and credit inherent in most countries' economic andpolicy must be such as to permit the private investment policies." This has created an issue

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Box 8.1. Mozambique Food Security Report

Mozambique's food security problems are enormous-affecting over 60 percent of the population both rural andurban. The factors contributing to the enormity of the problem include continuing warfare and banditry which has ledto widespread displacement of rural households and to the disruption of trading and communications networks,recurrent droughts and floods, failures in past economic policy, and the poor health conditions of the population ingeneral. Since this study was completed, an important drought has occurred, and many of the report's projectionshave come true.

The basic approach proposed in the report is to concentrate resources on increasing the productivity of smallholders, create sustainable employment and income-generating opportunities for the most vulnerable households,improve access to basic services, and a carefully targeted safety net of direct and indirect income transfer to preventserious malnutrition and starvation.

The main ways in which this approach can be implemented are the following:

* Food aid, by augmenting national food supplies, is an essential component of food security in Mozambique.Domestic production and marketing is so disrupted that production will not be able to satisfy needs for food for sometime. Severe foreign exchange scarcity will prevent significant purchases of food from abroad. Food aid effectivenesscan be improved by developing a single framework for food aid valuation, improving the financial position of thestate trading corporations involved in food aid distribution, better coordination of food aid arrivals, and increasedmonetization of food aid.

* The productivity of agriculure needs to be increased. Although greater agricultural production cannot resolveMozambique food problem in the near term, in the medium- and long-term it can go some way in doing this. Tosucceed, there is a need to concentrate resources on the family rather than the state farm sector, to improvemarketing structures and the movement of basic inputs, develop specific interventions in aeas of high drought risk,and a need to focus resources geographically on those districts relatively free from the war-related disturbance.

* Employment needs to be increased through: (i) assistance to labor-intensive small businesses, (ii) trainingprograms targeted to unemployed members of the poorest households, and (iii) public employment programs focusedon rehabilitating infrastructure.

Source: 'Achieving Food Security in Africa,' Africa Region Food Security Unit, World Bank, February 7, 1992.

regarding the appropriate urban policy from the urban populations results in political pressure toperspective of agricultural development. keep food prices low and to target public

Where government policy discourages investments and services disproportionately toagricultural production and encourages the big cities. The result is the extraordinaryagricultural imports to supply urban needs, there low level of public investment in rural roads,will be no positive impact of urbanization on water, health and education as discussedagriculture.'" This has tended to be the case in previously.countries where urban development policy has In much of Sub-Saharan Africa, rural out-focused heavily on the capital or on a few migration involves predominantly young men.dominant cities, inevitably more distant from Where policy has a heavy urban bias, this hasrural hinterlands. Manifestations of such policy been particularly pronounced. As women,and expenditure bias are urban consumption children and the old stay behind, farmsubsidies (often based on imported food), management is increasingly left to women whopreoccupation with large urban infrastructure already have multiple and very heavy res-projects, and the focusing of social expenditures ponsibilities and work loads, and who faceon a few cities. The political influence of vocal greater constraints in access to resources and

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Infiabucture and Town-Country Linkages; Developing Roads, Water Supply, Education and Health in Rural Ars

services than men. Many rural areas are today For areas that are approaching the limits ofcharacterized by severely imbalanced gender sustainable agricultural land use under existingratios in their adult population, with women tenurial, technological and climatic conditions,substantially outnumbering men. In addition, if migration to these secondary towns and citiesthe migrants abandon resilient and productive reduces the population pressure and provides anareas in pursuit of urban employment and in important safety valve.response to anti-agricultural policy biases, this Ensuring that urbanization has a positivehas a negative impact on agricultural production impact on agricultural development andand rural development in the areas which they environmental resource conservation requiresleave. economic policies that do not discriminate

Some countries have pursued policies that against rural areas (i.e. no price and investmenthave led to the emergence of numerous and discrimination), and a better balance betweengeographically dispersed secondary cities and rural and urban areas in public investment inrural towns closely linked with their sur- social and physical infrastructure. The morerounding rural areas (e.g. Cameroon, C6te rapid agricultural growth that will occur isd'Ivoire, Kenya, Nigeria, Togo). They also likely to have a positive impact on the economyhave a few very large cities (notably Douala, of the cities in Africa. A recent analysis ofAbidjan, Nairobi, Lagos, Lome), but farm-nonfarm linkages in rural Sub-Saharanurbanization in these countries has also been Africa found that each US dollar of increasedcharacterized by the development of many agricultural income generated an additionalsmaller cities and rural towns throughout much increase of US$0.5 in non-agricultural ruralof the national territory. This has had important incomes.'2 This was largely due to agriculturalpositive effects on agriculture. These towns and growth stimulating services and manufacturing.secondary cities have created non-agricultural This is less likely to occur when urban-biasedemployment opportunities for some of the rural policies cut off rural areas and agriculture frompopulation. Industrial and service sector the cities.development in secondary towns and cities has The elements of sound urban developmentbeen closely linked to agriculture and to the policy include relatively more public expendi-needs of rural populations. Cash remittances to ture in secondary towns and cities and less inhome villages are an important source of the largest cities than has generally been thefinancing of both consumption and investment case to date, and spatially well-distributedexpenditures in rural areas. Urban growth infrastructure investment throughout the countrycreates expanding markets for farm products (not merely in the largest cities). It also requiresand tends to lead to the increased supply and market-based petroleum pricing to promote theavailability of farm inputs and services. This development of efficient transport fuel distribu-can make agriculture more profitable-provided tion systems throughout each country. It willthere are adequate transport links and marketing include the promotion-through industrial exten-arrangements, which are based in the first sion as well as fiscal and credit policies-ofinstance in secondary towns and cities. Where small and medium industry. And it will includenetworks of rural towns and secondary cities greater community control over urban re-exist, these links are far more direct, immediate sources. Given adequate financial resources andand efficient. Spread-out rural towns and the requisite technical and administrativesecondary cities tend to be associated with far assistance, local and community governmentsgreater penetration of rural areas with adequate are far more likely than central governments totransport links and marketing arrangements than create and maintain appropriately-scaled andwhen urbanization has focused on mega-cities. sited urban infrastructure facilities.

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A Strategy to Develop Agricuhurc in Sub-Sahamn Africa and a Focus for the World Dank

Notes

1. IFPRI, Annual Report, 1990.

2. Prabhu Pingali, Yves Bigot, and Hans Binswanger, Agricultural Mechanization and theEvolution of Farming Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank, Johns HopkinsUniversity Press, 1987.

3. John Riverson, Juan Gaviria, and Sydney Thriscutt, Rural Roads in Sub-Saharan Africa:Lessons from World Bank Experience, World Bank Technical Paper No. 141, WorldBank, 1991.

4. J. Riverson and others, ibid.

5. Steve Carapetis, Hernan Levy, Terje Wolden, 'Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Program.The Road Maintenance Initiative, Building Capacity for Policy Reform," Volume I:Report on the Policy Seminars, EDI Seminar Series, Economic Development Institute,World Bank, September 1991.

6. J. Riverson and other, Rural Roads in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from World BankExperience, op. cit.

7. The objective established in K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agricultureand Envirornent Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit., and referred to in Chapter 2.

8. See 'Achieving Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa", op. cit., p. 38 for an interestingpresentation of the various elements which can be incorporated into a food securitystrategy. It is apparent that all actions which increase incomes, especially of the poor,from policy change to investment, will contribute to improved food security.

9. Simon Maxwell, "Food Security in Africa, Priorities for Reducing Hunger," AfricaRecovery, United Nations, September 1992.

10. A recent study by M. Schiff and Alberto Valdes, The Plundering of Agriculture inDeveloping Countries, op. cit., shows that urban bias in developing countries, includingAfrica, has been extraordinarily high, leading to what they term the "plundering' ofagriculture.

11. For a contrary view see Jean-Marie Cour, "Rural-Urban Linkages: Macroeconomic andRegional Implications," (draft discussion paper), Technical Department, Africa Region,World Bank, June 1990.

12. Steven Haggblade, Peter Hazell, and James Brown, "Farm - Non-Farm Linkages in RuralSub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Vol. 17, No. 8, 1989, pp. 1173-1201.

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9. Natural Resource Management

The Problem manner. One factor which must be dealt with inthese plans is that financial returns to con-

Only in the last several years has it been servation are often less than economic returns,realized that the natural resource base in many and hence people and companies will undertakeAfrican countries is deteriorating sharply. As less conservation than is economically optimal.indicated previously, there is now widespread This situation is exacerbated when financialevidence of important soil erosion and degrada- returns are still lower due to various markettion, water pollution, siltation of irrigated areas, price distortions or market failures. Environ-pasture degradation, forest destruction and dis- mental returns to conservation, if measurable,appearance of wildlands. The importance of the might in some cases, be larger than economic"nexus' between rapid population growth, envi- returns. In these circumstances taxes on naturalronmental degradation and agricultural stagna- resource use (forest taxes, mining royalties),tion is now better understood. These natural and subsidies for conservation (free extensionresource management problems reflect market advice to farmers, assistance with soil con-failures. Markets for natural resources have not servation works) are likely to be justified. Thisdeveloped in a manner which induces individual can occur in forestland, farmland and pasture-decisions to be consistent with economically, land. Each of these fundamentally different landsocially or environmentally desirable outcomes. use systems is dealt with in the following text.Future strategy must therefore put more empha-sis on natural resource management to counter Foreststhis failure, both as an independent objective,and as part of the agricultural development About 30 percent of Africa's land area isstrategy. This will include land and water use under forests. Thirty-four percent of Africa'splanning (land and water are the major natural forest lands are shrublands and 38 percent areresources), land tenure reform, better wildlands savanna woodlands used for fuelwood harvest-and forest management to combine sustainable ing, farming, or grazing. Only 28 percent isproduction of various products (not just wood) closed forest.' By contrast, in Latin Americawith conservation, better soil and water and Asia, two-thirds of forest area is closedmanagement on farms by farmers, and siting of forest. Timber production was valued at $1260infrastructure which takes environmental impact million in 1989 (FAO 1991). But Africa's woodand agricultural development into account. exports account for about 1 percent of the total

Natural resource management requirements world export market and are declining (South-vary enormously by ecological zone, not only east Asia and Latin America have greatlybetween countries but within countries. Require- increased their wood exports). As discussed inments in humid forest areas are quite different Chapter 2, forest area is declining at about 3.7from requirements in highly populated and fer- million hectares per annum, and the rate oftile farming areas, pastureland, or semi-arid and decline is accelerating.arid lands. Land-use plans, water plans, tropical The most important causes for deforestationforestry action plans, and national environmental are agricultural encroachment, infrastructureaction plans are all planning tools for analyzing development in delicate areas, timber andand dealing with management issues at the fuelwood harvesting. Crop land is expanding atnational and regional level in an integrated a rate of 1 million hectares per annum. Growing

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and migrating human populations as well as is ecologically sustainable in most of Westinternational demand for timber drive this Africa,' and in parts of Central and easternprocess. Donors, including the Bank, have Africa. With weak supervision by governmentsometimes financed agricultural projects which forestry services, the result is widespreadfacilitate the substitution of crop land for forests abusive logging and felling.and pasture. For forests which remain, improved manage-

Studies have found that deforestation ment for multiple uses will be vital. These usesincreases with greater population pressure if include tourism, timber, non-timber products,policies are favorable to agriculture, but mining, and preservation. It is unrealistic todecreases with greater use of modem farm expect that all forests can be conserved as theyinputs.2 Government forestry and park services are now. If people and governments feel thathave not been able to manage forests efficiently there is little benefit from forests, those forestsalmost anywhere in Africa due to inadequate will be converted into agricultural land.funding, inadequately trained staff, and a policy In order to deal with these problems, there isenvironment that often encourages destructive no alternative to planning, orchestrated bypractices. Open access land tenure in forest governments. These plans can be establishedareas has, for example, permitted migrants easy within "Tropical Forestry Actions Plans'entry into forests. This has been caused in part (TFAPs), "National Environmental Actionby government land nationalization which Plans' (NEAPs) or simply forestry masterdisplaced traditional forest people. Traditional plans. Each will involve some form of land useforest people had some incentive to maintain and natural resource planning. Land-use plans inforests when customary land rights conferred to forests should identify conservation areas,them exclusive user rights in the forests. parks, areas allocated to sustainable logging,Governments have not been able to substitute mining areas, farming areas, and areas fortraditional people's forest management with infrastructure development. Farmers haveeffective government control of the forest. As a encroached into most forest areas in Africa.result, the forests are often exploited by loggers, The cost of resettling them is generallypoachers, and farmers who do not own or have prohibitive. Consequently, areas which areexclusive rights to the forests, and hence have largely converted to farm land should be simplylittle incentive to preserve them. Another result given up to farming and farmers allocatedis that open access forests allow free harvesting secure user rights. Areas allocated to loggingof woodfuel. The resulting price of woodfuel is should be carefully managed in collaborationlower than the environmental cost of its with logging companies which contract in con-gathering. Woodfuel prices are often so low that cession agreements to log in a sustainablealternative sources of household energy cannot manner. Areas allocated to protection should becompete unless subsidized. Woodfuel is not managed by governments in partnership withreplanted in this situation, until transport costs local populations. Local populations willto consuming centers exceed replanting costs cooperate if given user rights in protected areasaround those centers. This has been a major and are involved in management decisions.'problem in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, but is An objection to this prescription is that land-common almost everywhere in Africa. use planning and regional planning have not

Another set of government policies which worked well in most of Africa. The reasons forencourages excessive forest exploitation includes this included the excessive complexity of suchlow stumpage fees on logging, low export taxes plans and lack of government capacity to pre-for logs, and generous logging concession pare and- implement the plans. Frequently,agreements setting few responsibilities for people living in the areas to which the planloggers. This has stimulated more logging than applies have no incentives to cooperate. Land

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Natural Resource Management

tenure issues, identification of appropriate primary humid forests. Logging should certainlyagricultural technology in forest areas, partici- be stopped in ecologically delicate and inpation by local people and by the private sector, environmentally important areas. There clearlyand establishment of adequate incentives for log- should be no logging where it is not possible togers, farmers, hunters and gatherers and live- log on an ecologically sustainable basis. Instock owners to cooperate were completely secondary tropical moist and dry forests (i.e.neglected in past development projects located those consisting of regrowth where primaryin forest areas. What was nearly universally forests have been logged or otherwise signifi-applied was an engineering solution, imple- cantly disturbed before), on industrial planta-mented by government administrative services tions and on tree farms, logging in accordanceor donor project management which sought to with sustainable management practices should bemanage forest areas independently of people and permitted, and many of these areas should incompanies living or operating in them. A new many cases be specifically designated andapproach is necessary both for planning and managed as permanent sources of timber, pulp-management which simplifies execution, and wood and woodfuels. Logging companies unablewhich makes greater use of prices, taxes and to log in a sustainable manner should not besubsidies to induce behavior consistent with the given concessions and permits, even in secon-plans. If governmen;'s role is confined primarily dary forest areas. Logging in dry forests isto planning, legislation and supervision, it generally for local wood industry and fuelwood,becomes more manageable. And if governments and would continue on private land, or publicare assisted in these more limited functions land leased for this purpose.through TFAP or EAP preparation, the strategy Loggers will have to improve theirbecomes realistic. performance and show themselves to be

The content of the forest component of such responsible in their logging activities. In orderplans will vary from country to country. to induce this behavior, forest managementGenerally, the most important actions to deal concession agreements rather than loggingwith degradation of forest resources are to: concessions, providing for logging company(a) reduce population growth; and (b) intensify responsibilities as well as rights will beagricultural production at a rate which exceeds necessary. These concessions should be leasedpopulation growth, in order to encourage seden- to companies on the basis of technical,tary agriculture and livestock raising, and to biological, and ecological criteria. Paymentdiscourage migration into the forests. Although rather than evasion of taxes and annualthese aspects of forest management are outside concession fees should be more the norm.the immediate purview of forestry programs, Management of secondary growth forests andthey are not less important to the solution. industrial plantations would then become moreRapidly growing numbers of people, surviving important in the share of the business of loggingin land-extensive agricultural systems, will companies than the mining of primary tropicalattack the forests. This underscores again the moist and drier forests. Where governments andcomplex mutual dependency of agricultural and local people choose to continue to allow loggingnon-agricultural activities in Africa. in primary forests, the management of

The degree to which the sustainable secondary growth should still be encouraged bymanagement of primary tropical moist forests is levying much lower taxes on trees taken frompossible within logging concessions is highly replanting schemes and from industrialcontentious.5 Although the present evidence plantations than on trees harvested from primarymay be insufficient to make a definitive and forests. Forest management concessions shouldcategorical statement, there is increasing support be long term to encourage companies toamong experts for prohibiting logging in intact participate. If international prices for tropical

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A Stategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

wood increase as currently projected (Chapter Nature (IUCN) has identified priority areas4), the profitability of forest plantations will which should be protected because of theirincrease, making such an approach even more especially valuable environmental character-feasible. istics. Areas which should be protected are

Taxes on logging in those primary tropical located throughout Africa, in forests andmoist and dry forests where logging is still per- mountain areas, as well as where wildlifemitted should be increased, through area-based remains prolific. Local populations need totaxes and fees levied on concessions. Forest participate in management and planning even inmanagement concessions should be auctioned to these areas, but within a more restrictivethe highest bidder. These measures would serve framework, aimed at conservation. In manyto return more of the benefit to the community cases, continued hunting and gathering byand, in effect, impose a charge on the com- traditional forest users is not inconsistent withpanies for the public resource (the forest) conservation, even in parks. Long-term userexploited. Taxes and stumpage fees should be rights can be granted to local populationshigh enough to reflect the economic and social bestowing responsibilities for conservation asvalue of the forest, including the environmental well.services it provides, and the costs of rehabilita- Governments will need to develop thetion if the public sector or the local comrnmunity institutional and human capacity required toundertakes that rehabilitation.6 manage protected areas and to monitor logging,

A key to success in better forest management as well as to monitor the use of agricultural andwill be local people's participation. Local people pasture (and fisheries) resources made availablemust participate in both the planning and execu- in forests for exploitation. This is important totion of land use plans. This is best done through ensure that protected areas are in fact protectedtheir ownership of land and of resources on that and that the areas made available forland, or in some cases where government exploitation are used in a productive andownership is to continue, through legally bind- sustainable manner. An example of managementing long-term user rights. Ownership or secure for sustainability is increasing the availability oflong-term user rights create an incentive to wood products to match populationconserve. Loss of ownership or user rights growth-ensuring, for example, thatcreates an incentive to exploit without investing. reforestation exceeds cutting. This could beGovernment should assist local people through done by inducing local populations to set asidegovernment forest and extension services to suffcient land for wood production. Incentivesmanage these forests properly. Management include price, tax and other fiscal incentivesplans allowing some industrial logging and which make tree planting, harvesting andartisanal logging on a sustainable basis, setting marketing profitable. This requires planning andthe level of rent, specifying infrastructure management capacity in government evendevelopment, allocating land for agriculture, though local populations actually manage thecould be prepared with government, donor, and resource.NGO assistance. Local populations could exploit Government forest services can also helpfuelwood, hunting and gathering, and agricul- land owners reforest degraded forests, throughtural activities, and share with government in the provision of seedlings, training, androyalties from use by "outsiders." extension services providing technical know-

Governments will maintain certain areas as how. But local people must do the planting andgovernment property: parks and certain forest harvesting. Traditional forest peoples and otherlands owned by governments for several decades inhabitants of forests should generally not be(such as the gazetted forests in West Africa). resettled out of forests. Rather, they should beThe International Union for the Conservation of made partners in forest management through

94


appropriate incentives. NGOs should be given a rural people for several decades. Rural needsrole in assisting local people to participate in will have to increasingly be met by trees plantedforest management. Governments should also on farms and in rural areas. Trees and agro-provide environmental education to local people forestry should be a much greater focus ofthrough the school system and the public media. agricultural research and extension in order toGovernments will have to develop capacity to deal with increasing needs and decreasingundertake environmental assessments of availability of fuelwood. Urban supplies willdevelopment projects in order to avoid exces- have to be met from:sively negative environmental impact in forest * farmer and industrial wood plantations;areas. Strengthened public forestry research will * conservation: fuel-efficient stoves, morebe necessary, especially in silvicultural efficient wood harvesting; andpractices, the sustainability of various logging * progressive substitution of other fuelssystems, and the ecological aspects of forest (kerosene, electricity, LPG).eco-systems. Better forestry schools will be This will require incentives, since it is peoplenecessary to prepare people for the private and rather than governments who must act.public forestry sectors. Greater focus is needed Incentives for planting and conserving fuel-on preparing empowered groups of forest users wood can be created by eliminating open accessfor their expanded role. land and tree tenure, providing security of

ownership or at least long-term user rights toFuelwood traditional or private owners. People will have

an incentive to replant fuelwood if they own theFuelwood is a special problem in both forest land and the trees on the land. The same land

and non-forest areas, and deserves special tenure prescriptions apply in the fuelwood caseconsideration.Fuelwood is expected to continue as for forests generally (discussed more fully into provide the dominate form of energy for the following paragraphs).

Box 9.1. A New Forest Policy in COte dI'voire

The Government of Cote d'Ivoire has initiated an effort to implement many of the recommendations set outhere. The objectives of the government's Forestry Program are to arrst destruction of tropical forests and restoreforest cover on about 20 percent of the country. About 12 milion hectares of tropical forests land have been lostsince the turn of the century. Wildlife and bio-diversity would be conserved under the program in national parkscovering 1.9 million hectares, of which 600,000 hectares are under tropical forests. Sustainable production of woodwould be undertaken through better management of 1.5 milion hectares of forest reserved for logging (all of whichare secondary forests, previously logged), maintenance and expansion of hardwood plantations, and extensionadvice to farmen regarding tree planting and agro-forestry.

This process began with detailed land use plans for existing 'gazetted' forest areas in which land is designatedfor either protection, logging, farming and/or other uses. Gazetted forests belong to the government. Park areashave already been delimited and are to be fuly protected and managed. In those parts of the gazetted forests whichhave been previously logged over and are to remain production forests, logging companies are receiving long-termconcessions in accordance with detailed forest resource management plans. These companies would log undergovernment supervision. Loggers judged unable or unwilling to participate are not permitted to log. To extract thegreatest amount of forestry value for the government, taxes on logs have been increased, and concessions are beingauctioned to the highest qualified bidders. This is helping to eliminate the least efficient loggers. In effect, forestswiD no longer be treated u a virtualy free good, but as an expensive and valuable resource to the community,requiring high payment by logging companies for exploitation. The remaining intact primary forests are in parks,and will not be logged at all. (continued)

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A Strtegy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharmn Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

Box 9.1. (continued)

Incentives are being provided for farmers to move out of thowe parts of parks and logging rewerves which areenvironmentally delicate or which would be managed for logging. Incentives for farmers to move will include land tidesand agricultural inputs made available outside the forests. No services would be provided to farmers remaining in theforests. The agricultural extension ervice will provide technical advice to resethe farmers. Land tenure reform to eliminateopen access to land is being undertaken in a separate project. Traditional forest dwellers would be left in the forest aswould farmers living on land which is already heavily encroached upon and on which forest have largely disappeared.Government institutions in the forest sector will be strengthened to focus more on conservation and resource management,rather than on ervicing the logging industry.

This new forestry policy fits into a broader national strategy for natural resource conservation which includesaccelerating agricultural intensification and improving land tenure security.

The major issue is the consultation process between farmers, traditional forest dwellers and Government. A consultationprocess has been created in the form of local level forest-farmer commissions which will decide on resetlement questionsas well as on other areas of controversy between Government, farmers who have settled in forests and traditional forestdwellers. A second issue is land ownership. Government would continue owning the land in the gazetted forest, but wouldpay part of the royalties to local populations to induce their support.

Natural Resource Management in grazing lands and agriculture. Planning is usefulFarming Areas because of the important trade-offs between

these various uses. Farmers will plan the use ofThe distinction is not always clear-cut their own land as a function of their self-

between forest areas and farming areas since interest. Providing land tenure security tomuch farming is undertaken in forest regions. traditional land users is as important inThere are large areas in Africa where forests agricultural areas as it is in forest areas, tohave been nearly totally replaced by farms. In encourage them to invest in and conserve thethese farming areas, the role of government in land (discussed subsequently). New soilnatural resource management will be land use conservation techniques can be extended moreand water resource planning, research, and widely to farmers in these areas, since farmersextension. The content of natural resource will be the major actors in natural resourcemanagement plans will focus on improving management. Agricultural research andfarming and livestock husbandry practices, tree extension systems are the major governmentplanting on farms, watershed management, tools for encouraging farmers and privateirrigation and drainage, domestic water supply industry to manage the natural resources founduse, and infrastructure location. Generally, land in farming areas. Actual conservation, therefore,in these predominately farmed areas still must will be almost entirely in the hands of farmersbe allocated for infrastructure, parks, forest, and livestock owners.

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Natuml Resource Management

Box 9.2. Natural Resource Management in a Farming Area - Machakos, Kenya

Detailed study of population, agriculture, and environmental linkages in Machakos District, Kenya, hu beenundertaken periodically since 1930. In the 1930s, the British colonial administration had observed considerable moilerosion and pasture degradation due in part to the expanding numbers of farmers and livestock on Machakos' fragileecology. The fragility was due to the hilly nature of much of Machakos and low rainfall, especially in the loweraltitudes. Early photos taken in the 1930s show considerable gully erosion, few trees. Statistics show low crop yields.By 1990, two studies show that despite a five fold increase in population, there were more tree, less soil erosion,higher agricultural output per person and per hectare (at constant prices). Farmers had invested in significantterracing, tree planting, and agriculture intensification. But behind this farmers' investment lie a number of factors ofcritical imnportance for replication of this experience elsewhere. Kenya's agricultural policy environment has beenclosest to that suggested as appropriate in this strategy paper. Farmer incentives to invest in agriculturalintensification were high. Machakos farmers invested in high-value coffee, horticulture crops and livestock.Integrated livestock cropping systems were introduced. This was facilitated by excellent infrastructure investment bygovemment, and intensive research and extension efforts by govemment dating from the 1940s. This included earlyintroduction of soil conservation technology, good public investment in education and health services, and a secureland tenure regime. Many of the elements of successful agricultural intensification proposed in this strategy paperwere available in Machakos District, and the result was rapid agricultural growth, surpassing rapid population growthand good natural resource conservation.

Source: Mary Tiffen, 'Productivity and Environmental Cozrervation Under Rapid Population Growth: A Case Study ofMachakos District," ODI, 1992.

Pastureland and Dryland Areas Reviews of natural resource problems in theSahel suggest several requirements of sustain-

If private ownership existed for pastureland, able management, which should be incorporatedand a land market were operative, the market into land use plans. These include:place could allocate pastureland to its most * the research and extension of appropriateefficient use. Externalities imposing social or crop and livestock technologies which are bothenvironmental costs and benefits of conserving soil-conserving and profitable for farmers andor using pastureland could be reflected in taxes herdsman. This is identical to the principaland subsidies. Nowhere in Africa is such private action required in farming areas;property operative in pastoral areas. In this * land tenure reform to eliminate open accesssituation, land-use planning will be important. (discussed subsequently);These plans should accommodate the interests of * reduction of population growth throughthe predominate pastoralists, farmers who are out-migration;moving into pasture areas to farm, fuelwood * promotion of non-agricultural ruralgatherers, and bio-diversity preservation. There industries to reduce the pressure on land; andare forests and wildlands in pastoral areas. * participation in planning, and managementResolving land disputes is an important aspect of implementation, by local communities.of the solution to these problems, including that It has been suggested in some literature thatof increasing fuelwood supply in drier areas. the preceding requirements mean a return toThe management of pastureland by local holistic and integrated planning and executionpeoples, grouped into associations, is the most for the dryland areas. This is because soil andeffective management mechanism. But these water conservation will not largely be a questionassociations must be provided ownership of of improving farmer practice as it is in farmingpasture land, or be assured long-term user areas. Pasture areas are much more susceptiblerights, if they are to be interested in to open access and collective use, requiringconservation and in sustainable management. community-wide solutions. This would mean a

97


return to the concept of integrated regional possible, but this will not be generally feasibledevelopment based on land-use plans that allo- on dry lands due to the patchy availability ofcate land for pasture, cropping, reserves and water and the need for seasonal livestockparks, fuelwood production, forests and other movement. But exclusion of others-i.e.,uses. Agricultural and livestock technology elimination of open-access conditions iswould be developed to suit each particular agro- essential. At the same time, local communitiesclimatic situation. The technologies would put a and individuals need to be taught to plan andgreater premium on soil conservation measures manage resource use in pasture areas.'than is the case in the better watered and more Communities will require funding to do this.fertile farming areas.' An interesting example One funding mechanism is the micro-projectis the Yatenga Project in Burkina Faso described funds, which some donors, the EEC inin Box 9.3. particular, have begun to establish. Technical

Whether land-use plans are used or not, local assistance will have to be provided toinitiative needs to be mobilized to manage communities to assist them in planning andpastureland and dry areas. Where traditional management. This technical assistance shouldauthority still exists, group land titles or secure come through extension agents, knowledgeablelong-term user rights should be provided. It is about conservation techniques. This is happen-through the ownership of land and of natural ing in Burkina Faso (see Box 9.3). The Burkinaresources, or at least the assurance of secure Faso example, although pertaining to a dry area,long-term use, that local participation can be is also pertinent to farming areas. The examplemobilized in these areas, as in the case of suggests a common element of natural resourcefarmland and forests. In better-watered lands, management in each area: good extension ofindividual ownership of ranches will be improved technology.

Box 9.3. Soil Conservation and Water Harvesting in Burkina Faso

An agricultural research and extension project {"Projet Agro-Forester (PAF)") in the Yatenga region of BurkinaFaso, was haunched in 1979 aimed at reducing soil erosion and water runoff. It used a simple, inexpensive, labor-intensive technique of earthen basins to catch rainwater for tree. Rock bunds, built to slow the runoff of rainfallfrom terraces, have proved effective in reducing erosion and retaining moisture in the soil.

The Yatenga region, located in the Sahelian area that borders the southem edge of the Sahara desert, is dry, withannual rainfall of 350-650 millimeters, and is drought prone. Traditional agricultural techniques cause considerablesoil erosion and depend on a long fallow period to restore the soil's productivity. Yet strong population pressureforced farmers to shorten and eventually eliminate the fallow periods, and the traditional methods of stemming soilerosion proved insufficient. Past efforts by govemment and intemational organizations to improve the situation hadlargely met with failure.

To halt further environmental degradation, the PAP, funded and managed by Oxfam, persuaded eight vilagecooperatives to volunteer land for the experiment. Sceptical at first, participants became more interested when largeamounts of water built up in the microcatchments. Several decided to plant upland rice in the basins, and sorghumwas introduced. These crops did well and soon farmers shifted their attention from the group plots to their own land.

When PAP staff found that the farmers were more interested in planting crops than trees, they shifted their focus.PAP also accommodated farmers' preference for a less labor-intensive construction of the rectangularmicrocatchments, and began to use a method similar to a traditional technique that had been abandoned. For moreeffective water collection, the PAF developed an inexpensive device: the water-tube level, which accurately identifiedthe contour line on the gentle slopes common in the Yatenga. The technique is now used by thousands of farmen.

(continued)

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Box 9.3. (continued)

The PAF project was expanded upon by the national extension service, in an example of NOO innovation replicatedmore widely by government. Today, soil conservation measures cover more than 60,000 hectares, extending to thenorthern region through the work of the national extension service.

Crop yields have improved because the bunds hold rainwater on the fields, which increases the absorption of water intothe land and thus by the crops. Fertilizer (usually manure and organic material) applied to the fields is less likely to bewashed away, making the soil directly behind the bunds more fertile. As much as 200 millimeters of soil had accumulatedbehind some of the barriers after their first year of use. First-year crop yield increases can be dramatic, 15-30 percent, butthe system needs to be managed well for yields to be sustained, with restitution of organic matter and fertilization.

The soil conservation interventions were successful because:

* The technology was simple. Yatenga farmers were familiar with the general principles of soil and water conservation,so they could understand the technology, and do the basic work and maintenance themselves;

* The extension services involved are simple. A few extension workers can help many farmers. Three important factorscontributed to its success: good communication, flexibility, and respect for participating farmers' opinions and preferences;and

* The beneits are obvious and the costs minimal. Farmers are not required to move, to grow crops they are unfamiliarwith, to borrow money to purchase a new technology, or to do anything very different from what they have been doing.For a minimal investment of time and effort, they can increase output and reduce risk.

Source: Agriculture Division, Sahel Department, Africa Region, World Bank, February 1992.

Infrastructure and Natural production and to limit further destruction ofResource Management forest and pasture areas.

Infrastructure development, and especiallySocial and physical infrastructure deve- road construction, should therefore be focused

lopment is a major determinant of the way where the potential for agricultural intensifica-people use land as well as of the spatial tion is highest and/or where settlement is to beallocation of people on land. The development encouraged. It should be avoided in forest areasof infrastructure tends to attract and retain which are to be conserved and in other environ-people. The many instances of colonists mentally fragile areas where an influx of peopleinvading forests via abandoned logging roads will lead to environmental degradation and des-provide a powerful illustration. Conversely, the truction. Concentrating infrastructure develop-absence of infrastructure in areas that are ment and thereby attracting and retaining peopleenvironmentally delicate will tend to induce in areas of high production potential, and keep-people to stay out of those areas. Careful loca- ing them out of environmentally fragile areas,tional targeting of physical and social infra- also allows considerable efficiencies in invest-structure development can guide spontaneous ments and service provision. For this reason,population movement into environmentally plans for social and physical infrastructureresilient areas with agricultural potential, and development should be part of land-use plans.into secondary towns and cities, and help keepmigrants out of areas that should not be opened Land Tenureup to farming. Sound infrastructure policy istherefore a powerful instrument in the two- Improving land tenure security for localpronged strategy to intensify agricultural peoples is a common element of natural

99

A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharmn Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

resource management in all areas. Generally, An example of the situation of breakdown ofwhere traditional tenure arrangements can con- traditional tenure systems is in CBte d'lvoire'stinue to work, traditional communities should be gazetted forests which consist of forests expro-provided with community tenure security. Land priated by the French colonial government forwithin the community can continue to be allo- use as production (logging) forests. In this, andcated according to customary practice. Tradi- in similar cases, a partnership between govern-tional tenure arrangements need protection ment, local people and logging companies willunder the law. This can be assisted by mecha- be necessary to properly manage these forests.nisms to provide group land titles to traditional Governments cannot succeed in managing therecommunities. Burkina Faso is proceeding in this forests without such cooperation: they do notfashion. Where traditional mechanisms have have the capacity. The ongoing Cote d'Ivoirecompletely broken down, individual land titling Forestry Sector Project is endeavoring to estab-may be necessary. Existing plantation and large lish a workable partnership which will preservefarms are most likely to need individual titles. these forests in perpetuity as productive forests,This should be provided, however, only on with some taken out of production for protectiondemand.9 In some cases, because traditional and others for farming. The provision of securetenure relationships have been replaced by land rights to people living around the forests,government ownership, it may be necessary to and secure user rights within the forests will bemaintain this ownership, and provide long-term one part of this partnership (see Box 9.1).legally binding user rights to local communities.Each of these forms of land ownership and user Information Needsright requires that government respect and en-force its rules. Otherwise, the title or the user Lack of operationally meaningful and reliableright is useless. Improving the efficiency of environmental data is a major problem. Urgentjudicial systems will be important in this regard. needs include assessment of forest cover, soil

These actions to strengthen land tenure erosion and soil capability, soil degradationsecurity will require government mechanisms to risks and the distribution of human and livestockassess and provide legal protection to traditional populations. This is an area in which donors canand to modern land owners. Since women heads provide support and expertise, and governmentsof households are increasingly frequent in rural need to act. It is important to develop nationalareas, efforts must be made to assure their capacity to gather and analyze information in-security of tenure. In many forest areas, tradi- country. Geographical Information Systemstional tenure mechanisms are still potentially (GISs) are designed to serve this purpose. GISsoperative, and governments can divest control of make use of aerial photography, remote sensingforest land and the trees on them to local com- and actual ground inspections and data collec-munities, through allocation of group titles or tion. GISs will be useful to monitor the progresssecure user rights. This must be done with care, of natural resource degradation and destruction,however, since many of these communities have to assess land capability for various uses and,broken down under the pressure of migration, thus, to provide the basis for sound land-uselogging, and government land ownership. planning, and environmental assessments ofWhere forest communities have broken down, development projects. It would help, for ex-the people occupying the forests may simply ample, to guide decisions regarding infrastruc-complete the destruction if given the oppor- ture development.'"tunity. In these cases, continued government In many cases, governments can launch theseownership and control may be necessary, but processes through the preparation of nationalcombined with carefully specified user rights, environmental action plans. These can set theand user responsibilities. broad environmental policies, propose areas for

100

Natural Rcsource Management

land-use planning as well as the parameters of Global Enviromnental Facility (GEF). Thesesuch planning, prepare fiscal policy changes, funds would be made available to countries asprepare for land tenure reform, prepare for compensation for reducing activities that arepopular participation, and donor assistance, remunerative but significantly compromise bio-among other measures. This process has been diversity (such as logging), contribute to carbonlaunched by numerous African Governments, dioxide emissions (such as forest burning), orunder a coordinating body called the Club of produce CFCs. Setting aside of tropical forestDublin." land or other wildlands as reserves and parks is

a good candidate for funding under this FacilityFinancing (Congo, for example, will receive GEF funding

for such a purpose).The benefits of improved conservation of There is as yet little experience with natural

some natural resources such as tropical forests resource management projects, or with initia-will accrue to the entire world, while the costs tives to improve land tenure security, as theywill have to be borne almost entirely by the have only now started. A great many morecountries in which the resources are located. natural resource management, environmentalThis situation has stimulated efforts to reim- protection, land tenure and forestry projects areburse the host countries for losses incurred programmed by the donors in the future. On-when forests, wildlands or savanna are taken of going projects incorporating some of theseproduction and put into reserves. The first such elements include the Madagascar Environmentalefforts were "debt for nature' swaps. Although Action Plan, Cote d'Ivoire Forestry and Guineanot many swaps have been organized in Sub- Natural Resource Management Projects. FutureSaharan Africa, there is no doubt that there is projects incorporating many of these elementsconsiderable potential for them in many parts of include Ghana Environment, Gabon Forestrythe continent. The principle is that governments and Environment, Zimbabwe Wildlife, Ugandaagree to set aside as a protected reserve large Environmental Action Plan, Cameroon Ecologi-tracts of forest or wildlife area, usually admi- cal Protection and Mali Natural Resourcesnistered with the help of an NGO, in return for Management. A critical issue in all of them isthe purchase of some amount of the country's the large financial cost to the governments,discounted debt by the NGO, or organized by which they can ill afford, as the economicthe NGO. dividends will be realized only in the long term.

A recently launched initiative is now This situation makes donor financing of suchunderway to provide about US$1 billion for a projects particularly justifiable.

Notes

1. 'World Bank Strategy for the Forest Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa" (draft), AfricaAgriculture Division, Technical Department, World Bank, October 7, 1992.

2. K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus inSub-Saharan Africa, op. cit.

3. Mikael Grut and Nicolas Egli, Forest Pricing and Concession Policies, World Bank,Technical Paper No. 143, September 1991.

101


4. These are the major thrusts of the recommendations contained in the "World BankStrategy for the Forest Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa," (draft), op. cit.

5. There are several type of forests which exist in Africa. For simplicity, the main four aredivided into primary moist and primary dry tropical forests, and secondary (regrowthafter cutting) moist and dry tropical forests. Trees exist throughout Africa, not just in thehumid and sub-humid central and west Africa. The Sudano-Sahelian Region largely hasacacia and commphora. Some evergreen forests as well as open woodland are found insub-humid mountainous East Africa. Southern Africa contains large areas of savannawoodlands.

6. Mikael Grut and Nicolas Egli, Forest Pricing and Concession Policies, op. cit.

7. Walter Lusigi and Bengt Nekby, "Dryland Management in Sub-Saharan Africa: TheSearch for Sustainable Development Options," Environmental Division, AFITEN WorkingPaper No. 2, Africa Region, World Bank, Novem.ber 1991. This approach is alsosuggested in K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, 7he Population, Agriculture and EnvironmentNexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit.

8. See "Resource Management and Pastoral Institution Building in the West Africa Sahel,"(draft), Africa Technical Department, World Bank, September, 1992.

9. K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus inSub-Saharan Africa, op. cit.

10. Taken from K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture and EnvironmentNexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit.

11. See Francois Falloux and Lee Talbot, National Environment Action Plans, Progress andNext Steps, NEAP Series, Environment Division, Africa Region, 1991.

102

10. Common Strategic Themes andExpected Impact

New Themes African capacity to manage by bringing in abroader spectrum of people. By using African

The present strategy paper, although including consultants rather than being excessively reliantelements of the strategy announced by many on foreign consultants, donors mobilize existingdonors in the 1980s, proposes some new African capacity. Freeing domestic agriculturalthemes, and strengthened priorities for others. trade liberates the capacity of potential privateThe major shifts in strategy are indicated in Box traders. With a smaller, planning and10.1. contracting role for government, a much smaller

There are four themes important in the number of more highly qualified and better paidpursuit of each of the priorities in Box 10.1 people can be retained in government services.which should be emphasized by governments There people should be the focus ofand donors in every project and program they considerable training effort. The present Africansupport. Capacity Building Initiative (ACBI) supported

by a consortium of donors will help. MoreDeveloping African Capacity to effective govermments, with greater capacity toManage Agriculture implement, would be the result of these various

efforts.Success in each of the five priority areas Improved agricultural education will be an

described in Chapters 5-9 requires the building important means to build African capacity toof African capacity to manage agriculture, at the manage agriculture. Agricultural educationlevel of the farm, the enterprise, the coopera- needs to begin in primary school. Many Africantive, and in government. The tendency of countries focus on agricultural education indonors, NGOs and some governments has been technical schools. Universities in many Africanto address capacity constraints with expatriate countries offer agricultural degrees. Donor-technical assistance. This tendency is so financed projects to assist the development ofpronounced that a significant proportion of aid agricultural education have frequently providedto agriculture now comes in the form of techni- for buildings, equipment, foreign teachers, andcal assistance. A major shift is required in the the training of local teachers. While this has indirection of building African capacity to manage many cases been highly beneficial, there has notthrough expanded training, support to educa- been sufficient attention to the quality andtional institutions in Africa, and support to content of the agricultural education provided.learning by doing. All donor and NGO projects Frequently, the subject matter taught is onlyshould include such capacity-building efforts partly relevant to local country agro-climaticas a centerpiece. conditions, crops, and the technological level of

Related to capacity-building is the idea of the farm population. Graduates are ill-prepared,liberating and using existing African capacity, in many cases, for coping with the agriculturalby removing constraints to private sector and situations of the country involved. High-levellocal community participation in economic training in foreign universities has the samemanagement. Efforts to mobilize private sector wrelevance' problem. The emphasis in the 1990sparticipation in various activities expands has to be on improving the quality and

103

A Strgy to Develop Agriculure in Sub-Sahaan Africa and a Focus for Xt Woird Ban

Box 10.1. Changing hemes for African Agricultural Dewelopment

1970s-1980s 199's and Beyond

- Improve government management capacity - Pluralism:bring in private, cooperative, NGO,foreign and domestic actors - and buildGovernment capacity in a limitednumber ofareas only

- Technical assistance - a major management - Training, education, learning by doingtool

- Policy improvement, tax, price, subsidy, - same; plus expanded agenda to landexchange rate, marketing tenure,

farmer empowerment, natural resourcemanagement, women's issues, publicexpenditure allocation

- Government provision of credit to - financial market development - assistedagriculture to

serve agriculture, including throughprivate and cooperative banks

- Create and strengthen parastatals - strengthen private and cooperativeenterprises, privatize parastatals

- Natural resource exploitation Oogging, - natural resource management - forfisheries, plantation) conservation and sustainable use

- Engineering solutions/supply-driven - people participation and incentives -respond to demand

- Large-scale infrastructure projects, - large- and small-scale infrastructuregovernment implementation projects, with people's participation and

private sector contractors

- National agricultural services - national services and multi-countrycooperation

- Trade and policy reform from national - national and regional (multi-country)perspective reform perspectives

- Each donor and NGO follows own - donor and NGO collaborationperspectives

- Agriculture focus on policy and technology - expand agriculture focus to includesocial services, infrastructure, naturalresource management, food security

104

Common Strtegic 7Themae and Expected Impact

relevance of the agricultural curriculum. Donor CoUlaborationLinking education to agricultural research,extension policy and input supply further To implement an ambitious strategy of theIncreases this relevance. The donor-supported type proposed requires not only governmentACBI which supports African "excellence" commitment, but donor collaboration. Thecenters of education, should provide support to propensity of each donor to go its own way,higher agricultural education. There is room to regardless of the total picture of other donorput internationally respected scientists into involvement in a country, or of govermmentAfrican agricultural universities to assist in plans, is widespread, and must be altered. Onecurriculum development.' way of achieving this is for governments to

develop sound strategies and action plans inBroadening the View of Agrculture each area discussed here, with external

assistance where appropriate to which all donorsIt is necessary to broaden our view of the can adhere. In this way, planning and strategy

elements necessary for agricultural development will help donors to collaborate. Meetings andto take place. Narrow views of agricultural conferences to encourage donor collaborationstrategy as essentially technology improvement are not effective, unless there is somethingand good macro-economic policy are convincing on which to collaborate.inadequate. Social sector development,environmental concerns, physical infrastructure Pluralism and a Reduced But Criical Roledevelopment, as well as political development for Governmentand creation of the rule of law are all vital tothe development of agriculture. And agricultural Behind every strategic action presented heredevelopment will contribute to progress in each lies the idea of mobilizing the participation ofof these areas, by creating the wealth, broadly concerned people, the private sector, anddistributed in the population, necessary to NGOs. These various participants should bemaintain social progress, to finance preservation both foreign and local. Excessive dominance byof the environment, and to permit people to government in all aspects of agriculturaldivert more energy from survival to political development must end. Land tenure reform;participation. reform of regulations inhibiting free association

This broadened view of the elements needed of farmers, pastoralists, water users, creditfor agricultural development does not require societies; reform of restrictive marketing,that agricultural projects incorporate these pricing and interest rate regulations; allocationelements. Rather, economic policy reform of user rights to local people living in forests;programs should be expanded to incorporate reform of cooperative legislation, are all waysmore of the structural changes needed to of encouraging popular and private sectorstimulate agriculture. Health and education participation in every aspect of the strategy.programs should focus more on rural areas. Twinning and contracting arrangements withRoad transport plans should allocate relatively external sources of expertise expandmore to rural roads and to roads connecting participation in agricultural development beyondagricultural areas to cities. Water development the borders of each country. Multi-countryprograms should include rural areas. Food (regional) cooperation and integration does thesecurity strategies should include the nutritional same thing. Such broadened participation inneeds of farmers. each country's agricultural development will

105

A Stra±cgy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Sahamn Africa and a Focus for the World Bak

strengthen commitment to implementing Short-Term Compared with Long-Termagricultural development programs, which has Actions, and Supply Responseoften been a missing ingredient in past efforts.

Reducing governments role to one coincident Little has been said about actions which havewith government capability is important in a impact on agriculture immediately, compared tocapacity-building strategy. This strategy paper action which has impact only in the long term.suggests that government should divest all In many cases, the distinction is difficult tocommercial activities to the private sector, to make. Generally, the following will be the time-cooperatives, and to NGOs. Commercial dimension of impact on agriculture.activities include, most obviously, farming,livestock-raising and agricultural marketing and Actions having immediate impactprocessing. African governments have become (within 1 year)involved in these commercial activities on amassive scale and so this divestiture is no - Agricultural policy Improve-simple feat. Less obviously, governments can ments (price, exchange rate,divest those components of agricultural tax, subsidy, market liberaliza-research, extension, veterinary services, forestry tion, trade)services, pasture management, farm input - Agricultural extensionsupply, and irrigation that can be offered by the - Food securtylnutrtionprivate sector on a for-profit basis or at least for - Farm input supplya price. This will liberate government capacityto deal with those inputs to agriculture which Actions having medium-term impact (I-5years)only governments can provide. These include,primarily, strategic planning in agriculture; - Road buildingnatural resource management planning (land, - Soil conservationwater, wildlife, bio-diversity), infrastructure - Development offarmers groupsdevelopment, rural health and education, urban and cooperativespolicy, and agricultural services which non- - Pro-active private sectorgovernment sectors will not take up. The agri- developmentcultural services which governments will need to - Irrigation developmentprovide include agricultural research, extension, - Creditveterinary, forestry and market information - Privatizationservices which cannot be done for profit or sold - Regional integrationfor a price. Generally, these will be targeted to - Improved government manage-the poor, to poor regions, and to subsistence mentcrops and livestock products, because the - Land tenure reformprivate sector will be least interested in these. In - Forest policy reformmany cases, even in the government's domain, - Agricultural researchprivate enterprises can be contracted to under-take the work on behalf of government (such as Actions havng only long-tenn inpactin research, road building, park management). (5+ years)The more limited the capacity of government,the greater should be the use of non- - Educationgovernmental institutions to implement govern- - Population policyment plans on contract. - Health services

106

Common Stategic Themea and Expected Impact

- Bio-diversity conservation and such study explains the variations in crop yieldsNational Enilronment Actions due to, among other things, changes in relativePlans prices, and macroeconomic variables. It found

- Water resource and land an elasticity of cereal crop yields with respect tomanagement the ratio of domestic to world prices of 0.14.

- Drought contingency planning The interpretation is that a 10 percent increase- Geographic information systems in the ratio of domestic prices to world prices- Sound urban policy leads to 1.4 percent increase in cereal crop

yields.4 Analysis using data from COte d'IvoireChapter 5 provided data suggesting that provided elasticities of agricultural value added

intensively-adjusting African countries averaged with respect to agricultural taxation of -0.3 (i.e.agricultural growth at 3.7 percent per annum 10 percent increase in agricultural taxation leadsduring 1987-1991, compared to 2.2 percent for to three percent decline in agricultural valueless intensively-adjusting African countries, and added).5

0.5 percent for non-adjusting countries. This short- to medium- term response worksAmong the measures traditionally taken through agricultural profitability. Policy reforms

under structural adjustment programs, pricing which increase real agricultural prices comparedreforms (input and output, credit, and currency to the price of farm inputs, through exchangeexchange, market liberalization) are at the apex. rate change, price policy, tax reform, or marketThe effectiveness of the price system in liberalization, make investing in agriculturestimulating agricultural supply is now profitable. More labor, farm inputs and equip-established. The magnitude of the output ment are used in agriculture, and more landresponse to price stimuli, however, has always opened up as profitability increases. The studybeen subject to conflicting empirical evidence, using CMte d'Ivoire data empirically documentedwith price elasticities ranging from low to more these relationships. Because of the large magni-than one depending on countries, crops, level of tude of policy distortions in Africa, short- toaggregation, and methodology.2 Low elasticity medium- term agricultural growth of up to 4estimates are usually found for aggregate percent per annum in response to policy reformagricultural output because of asset fixity, an is to be expected, and as seen from the data inexplanation that is not admitted by all re- Chapter 5, is occurring in a few countries.searchers. There is some empirical evidence in The response of agricultural supply toAfrica regarding short- and medium-run agricul- improved agricultural policy tells little about thetural supply response to improved policy. longer term. Once prices are set right (that is,Jaeger's study of agricultural supply over time when most distortions are eliminated for agricul-for a sarnple of African countries found tural input and output, credit, and currency ex-elasticities of supply ranging from -0.10 to change markets) and agricultural taxation (direct-0.25 for real effective exchange rate changes and indirect) reduced to reasonable levels, signi-and from 0.10 to 0.50 for aggregate increases in ficant increase in agricultural output can only bethe level of agricultural prices.3 This implies obtained from changes in the level of supplythat a 10 percent depreciation in the real shifters. The most determinant of these shifterseffective exchange rate generates an increase in in the case of Sub-Saharan Africa is technology,agricultural value added of from 1 to 2.5 i.e. a combination of material (land, labor, andpercent; a 10 percent real increase of aggregate equipment) and non-price factors such as educa-agricultural price stimulates a 1 to 5 percent tion, infrastructure, research, and extension.increase in agricultural value added. There have Putting these factors to work to impart a right-been several recent studies of agricultural supply ward shift in the whole aggregate agriculturalresponse which obtain the same results. One supply schedule will entail investment on- and

107


off-farm, expansion in the quality and quantity education and rural health care, high levels ofof agricultural labor, greater farm input use, investment in rural infrastructure, a compara-changes in environmental conditions, and tively secure land tenure situation, and aperhaps most important, technological relatively welcoming environment for privateinnovation. These are the medium- and long- investment in agriculture and agro-industry, hasterm measures previously described. permitted maintenance of agricultural growth in

Evidence of long-term agricultural supply the 3.5 to 4.5 percent per annum range for tworesponse is more difficult to establish decades. Recent political and policy difficultiesempirically. While many authors found aggre- reduced agriculture growth drastically in 1991,gate agricultural supply to be inelastic, Peterson and combined with drought, indicated a difficultfound a long-term elasticity output with respect situation for 1992. The Kenya experienceto real price changes in the international arena (which by and large parallels that of CMteof about 2.8.6 Peterson qualifies his measure as d'Ivoire) demonstrates both the importance ofthe theoretical maximum output response to the factors which can sustain agricultural growthprice stimuli, reached after transitory price at high levels over a long period of time andeffect and shifters have fully unfolded. In the also the fragility of agricultural growth oncecase of Sub-Saharan Africa, accurate measures these factors disappear or when there is aof long-term agricultural supply response to significant exogenous shock such as a droughtprice policy is even less certain. This is because or lasting adverse world market conditions.political instability, quick changes in policy, and The magnitude of the effects of non-pricemajor climatic shocks which are a prominent factors of output growth is usually derived fromfeature in the subcontinent have not permitted production function estimates. A review ofthe long-term factors to operate in most African several production function studies suggest thatcountries. There are few African countries in the combined sum of factor output elasticitieswhich the policy environment and the political are close to unity, suggesting a constant returnsituation have been stable enough, so that the to scale. The elasticity estimates for individualimpact of medium- and long-term measures on factors vary within a relatively wide range: 0.30agriculture can be observed over a reasonable to 0.75 for labor and from 0.20 to 0.80 forperiod of time. Kenya is one of the few coun- land. In the few studies that have estimates oftries which has had relatively good macro and capital elasticities of output with respect toagricultural policy and political stability for a capital, the figures hover around 0.15. Tablelong period of time. Relatively high levels of 10.1 contains factor elasticity estimates fromagricultural investment, better than average rural selected studies.

108

Table 10.1. Elasticities of Agricultural Output with Respect to Factors of Production

Study Kawagoe Bhaata- Hayami Ewnson Yamada MundiakHayami, Ruuan charjee Nayami Rurnan Kisley Nguyen Ruuan Anile Helling Darwin Gezira Chiwesh Tshibaka Ceaver

M. of b orheR Eastern CdeC4antries (22 LDCs) (22) (38) (38) (36) (40) (41) (66) (S8) Zbmbab Sudan Zimbab Mgeria Bwuina Zairef d'Iv.1re'

Fator

LAboor 0.534 to 0.608 0.30 0.45 0.40 0.20 0.35 0.35 0.40 0.40 0.06 0.33 0.07 0.36 0.74 .34 to .44 0.45

Land Inaignif. to 0.094 0.40 0.20 0.10 0.10 0 0 0.15 0.20 0.82 0.37 0.51 0.42 0.20 (0.45)

Livegock 0.140to 031 0 - 0.25 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.20

Fertilizer Insigiuf. to 0.162 0.30 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.15 0.25 0.10 0.10 0.10

Machinery 0.060to0.136 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.15 0.05

GensalEducation

Literacy R.atio 0.276 to 0.287

School Enroll. .405 to .405 0.45 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.25

Tech. 0.166 to 0.171 0.10 0.15 0.10 0.20 0.15Education

ReaArch 0.10 0.20

Infiagructre 0.20

Rainfall 0.10

a. Smallholder, highland, rainfed, black soils, animal traction.b. Medium-scale, irrigated, black soia, mechanized.c. Smallholder, highland, rainfed, red soils, animal traction.d. Smalbholder, rainfed, red and brown soils, animal traction and hand hoe. Millet and sorghum accounted for 54 percent of acreage. Productivity expmeaaed in sorghum, assuming a producer price of 1/2 hilling per

kilogram.e. Smallholder, rainfed, red oils, animal traction and hand hoe.f. Factor elasticity is 0.44 for aule labor and 0.34 for female labo.g. Land was not specified as a separate input because of ita close connection with labor. An expanding labor force clears new land using liale in terms of modern inputs and equipment. The coefficient with repect to

labor, therefore, measures the effects of labor md land together.

Sources: J. M. Antle, Infrastrucnare and Aggregase Agricultural Producdviry: Internaaonau Evidence, Economnic Development and Cultural Charge, Vol. 31, pp. 609-19, 1983.J. P. Battachaijee, 'Resource Use and Productivity in World Agriculture,' Journal ofFanr, Economics, Vol. 37 pp. 57-71, 1955.K. Cleaver, 'An Agricultural Growth and Rurl Envirenment Strategy for the Coasal snd Central African Fmncophone Countries,' Reporl No. 9592-AFR, Technical Depatrment, Africa Region, World Bank, 1992.R. E. Evenson and Y. Kisley, Agricultural Research and Producsviry, Yale University Press, New Haven, 1975.Y. Hayami, 'Sources of Agricultural Productivity Gap among Selected Countries,' Journal ofAgriculural Economics, Vol. 51, pp. 564-75, 1969.Y. Haysmi and V. W. Rutan, Agricultural Development: An Internanonal Perspecrde, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1971.T. KAwagoe, Y. Haysmi and V. W. Ruttan, 'The Intercountry Agricultural Production Function and productivity Differencca Among Countries', Journal ofDeelopmns Economcs, Vol. 19, pp. 113-32, 1985.Y. Mundlak and R. Hcllinghauen, 'The Intercountry Agricultural Production Function: Another View,' American Journal of Agricutural Economics, Vol. 61, pp. 565-70, 1982.Nguyen, 'On Agricultural Productivity, Differences Among Countries,' American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 61, pp. 565-70, 1979.S. Yamahd and V. W. Runan, 'International Comparisonsof Productivity in Agriculture,' in J.W. Kendrick and B.N. Vaccara. eds., New Developments in Producdvity MeasurementandAnalysis, University ofChicago Pres,pp. 509-99, 1980.

A Strategy to Develop Agriculure in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank

Table 10.2. Historic Input-Output Lnkages

Resulting historicoutput

Historic input growth growth due to inputrate' growth

Input (% per annum) Elasticity (% per annum)

Land and labor 2.5 0.80 2.0

Fertilizer 0.5 0.05 0.02

Capital stock 4.0 0.15 0.60

Rainfall -1.0 0.30 -0.60

Sum of factors 2.02

a. Theac input growth rates are very approximate, given the poverty of the data available. Particularly bad are rainfall and fanninveatment data. However, there is some evidence of decl ines in rainfall in many African countries. In CMe d'lvoire, for example,there has been an accelerating long-term decline in rainfall (see Chapter 2).

Based on these studies, one can project once the gains from agricultural policy improve-growth based on an assumed sum of average ment have been achieved. Improving the qualityland and labor elasticities equal to about .8, of labor through health and education measurescapital elasticity of 0.15, fertilizer of .05, and will increase the elasticity of output with respectrainfall of 0.30. Applying past average growth to labor input. Fertilizer and other modem inputrates for each of the four factors of production growth will have to be greatly expanded. It is soin Africa, the following figures emerge. low now that an expansion of 10 percent per

annum is feasible for the next fifteen years.Historic Growth Rate Investment has increased in African agriculture,

but the impact has been low because itsAgricultural output growth over the long- efficiency has been poor. This low efficiency is

term in Africa has been at about 1.9 percent per represented by the extraordinarily low elasticityannum, slightly lower than predicted from the of output with respect to agricultural investment.estimates derived from the sample studies of This reflects poorly-conceived donor andTable 10.2. It is possible that the effects of government investment projects which have hadexogenous factors such as drought and rainfall very little impact in the past. Implementation ofhas not been fully accounted for during the the recommendations of this document shouldperiod of interest. Higher rainfall elasticity, greatly improve the efficiency of investment.close to 0.50 is found by Jaeger.7 When a A prospective scenario about long-termhigher rainfall elasticity is used, instead of 0.3, changes in both the responsiveness of output tothen the predicted growth becomes closer to the various inputs and changes in the supply ofobserved growth. these inputs to reach long-term agricultural

The preceding numbers suggest how difficult growth rates of 4 percent per annum (assumingit will be to maintain long term agricultural good agricultural and economic policy, as wellgrowth rates in the 4 percent per annum range as political stability) are as follows.

110

Common Staei Thean=d ExpEod Impa__

Table 10.3. Prospecive Input-Output Linkages

Projected outputgrowth due to Input

Input Growth rate growthInput (% per annum) Elasticity (% per annum)

Land and labor 1.8 1.0 1.8

Fertilizer 10.0 0.1 1.0

Capital stock 6.0 0.2 1.2

Rainfall 0.0 0.60 0.0

Sum of factors 4.0

In a conventional development pattern, land are projected to be around 1.8. Technologi-agricultural labor force declines with the cal change has been embodied in the elasticitiespassage of time. While this happens, of output with respect to labor and capital whichproductivity of labor increases, sometimes to an become more efficient, while the efficiency ofextent such that labor contribution to output farm input use doubles. Rainfall is assumed togrowth is at least sustained. Many African stabilize as the result of successful naturalcountries have witnessed a decline in resource management strategies. The rate ofagricultural labor force without a prospect of an growth of farm capital, already high, increasesincrease in labor productivity. In their study of slightly. Modern farm input use is the areathe patterns of growth and demographic where much needs to be done. The current lowprocesses, Chenery and Syrquin, after plotting level of fertilizer use (relative to other develop-agricultural labor productivity indices for about ing countrits) suggests that there is room for100 countries against their income level, found further increase. It is assumed that fertilizer usethat relative labor productivity falls when expands very rapidly, at 10 percent per annum.income levels are low and then increases A 10 percent increase, although high given thegradually as modern technology is adopted in current situation, is quite plausible. This resultsthe rural sector.' Thus, they conclude, to from better extension, and a general improve-increase the labor productivity in agriculture is ment in farmers' support services and infrastruc-a question of time needed to acquire technical ture. While the figures presented here are specu-knowledge and set immobile productive factors lative, they can be achieved in Africa, thoughin motion. As for land, further clearing for with great difficulty. However, without the mea-cultivation at the pace of the past two decades, sures proposed in this strategy document, conti-that caused for example COte d'Ivoire's forest nuation of the present low elasticities and pre-cover to deplete at five percent per annum, will sent low growth of modern farm inputs could besimply not be possible. expected, with the result that agricultural growth

Thus, in the prospective scenario described would be maintained at its present 1.5 to 2.0in Table 10.3, the following assumptions are percent per annum in the long term-lower thanmade. Combined growth rates for labor and the population growth rate.

111

A Staegy to Develop Agr/uue in Sub-Sah Afica and a Poc for the World Bank

Notes

1. See Carl Eicher, "Revitalizing the CGIAR system and NARSs in the Third World," StaffPaper No. 92-73, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, November 1992.

2. See the seminal review of several empirical studies by Askari, H and J. T. Cummings,Agricultural Supply Response, A Survey of the Econometric Evidence, Praeger Publishers,New York, 1976. See especially pp 390412 where more than 600 elasticity estimates aretabulated. More recently a critical discussion of several supply elasticity estimates forSub-Saharan Africa is presented in Osita and Gbetibouo, "Agricultural Supply Responsein Sub-Saharan Africa: A Critical Review of Literature,'" Afrca Development Review,Vol. 2 No. 2, pp. 84-99, 1990.

3. William Jaeger, "The Effects of Economic Policies on African Agriculture," World BankDiscussion Paper, African Technical Departnent Series No. 147, 1992.

4. K. Cleaver, and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture, and Environment Nexus InSub-Saharan Africa: A Long Term Perspective, op. cit.

5. World Bank, An Agricultural Growth and Rural Environment Strategy for the Coastal andCentral Afrilcan Francophone Countries, Report No. 9592-AFR, September 4, 1992.

6. Peterson, W. 'International Supply Response", Agricultural Economics, Vol. 2, 1988,pp. 365-74.

7. In Jaeger's study, given that rainfall data are generally poor or simply not available formany countries, he uses as a proxy the residuals from a regression trend line for cerealyields. The rationale for this is that for most countries, weather variations are the mostdeterminant factor of the deviation of annual cereal output levels from their trend course.

8. Chenery, H. and M. Syrquin, Patterns of Development, 1950-1970, New York, OxfordUniversity Press, 1975.

112

' PART II

The World Bank's Role

11. Areas of Focus for the Bank

Policy Reform and Long-Term Agricultural programs. They may include sector- wide quick-Development Programs disbursing operations or sub-sector operations

which are more targeted.Consistent with the priorities set out in the An essential ingredient is the commitment ofpreceding text, the World Bank will continue to government and the people. Much more effortsupport agricultural policy reform in Africa. will be needed to mobilize this commitment thanThe strategy suggests that both the agricultural has been undertaken in the past. This will becontent of adjustment, and the commitment of encouraged by more widespread participation ingovernments to implementation, need to be the preparation of and discussion about medium-increased in most of Africa if agricultural and long-term agricultural developmentgrowth, and the performance of the Bank's programs. This will mean that the Bank willagricultural portfolio, is to be improved in the have to be less directive, and more responsiveshort- as well as the long-term. The Bank to local initiatives. The Bank should not goshould support agricultural policy reform only forward with major sector programs without thiswhere there is an acceptable medium- and long- commitment. Discussion and creation ofterm economic policy framework, and where a commitment with borrowing countries will be asmedium- and long-term agricultural important as the technical analysis which goesdevelopment program is prepared, offering into preparing such programs. The result of thisreasonable hope for good growth. These new approach will be more selective support byprograms should address the various issues the Bank of African agricultural developmentpresented in this strategy paper. programs. More sector work, and more sector

Expanded areas of agricultural policy reform policy lending will be the result. Because thesecompared to those presently emphasized include sector loans will support part of the medium- toland tenure, rural infrastructure, rural long-term plans, they can provide for bettereducation, government restructuring, rural credit phasing of reforms. Reforms such as price, tax,markets, natural resource management, and subsidy, and credit reforms which liberatedevelopment of farmers' groups. Many of these African capacity and can be undertaken quicldy,expanded areas require both better policy and will have immediate impact. More difficultinvestment. Therefore, medium- and long-term reform such as land tenure, privatization anddevelopment programs should deal with both. management of natural resources can beThey should indicate the expected role of the implemented more slowly.private sector, private voluntary organizations, The Bank needs to advocate more fbrcefullyfarmers' groups, donors, as well as the agricultural trade and subsidy reform ingovernment. The agricultural policy operations industrial countries, as an important ingredientfinanced by the Bank can be kept simple and in African agricultural development. This can bemanageable by financing a series of such done through the Bank's Board of Directors,

11l


more vocal Bank participation in international excessive urban bias in expenditures, poorly-trade negotiations such as the GATT, and more conceived agricultural investments, and low-Bank publications on the matter. priority expenditures in other sectors. Consistent

Public expenditure programs related to with the recommendations of this strategy paper,agriculture continue to be poorly conceived in government-owned and managed commercialmost African countries. Within the agricultural activities should be divested over time to thesectors, large amounts of resources are spent on private, cooperative, and NGO sectors. Manypoorly- performing agricultural projects, thus public goods type services that remain understarving high-priority investments. In addition, government management can be contracted tolittle is going to rural infrastructure. From the the private sector to manage. More emphasis inbroader perspective of total public expenditure PERs is needed on the allocation of recurrentprograms, there continues to be an urban bias in expenditure (usually going largely to salaries).public investment. Bank public expenditure Reviews should be undertaken collaborativelyreviews are not leading to solutions. Reviews by govermments and donors. They need to betend to be too academic, and not sufficiently followed up in the context of future donoraction-oriented. Reviews seldom lead to strong assistance and redesign of ongoing assistance.recommendations, followed up by Bank action With respect to ongoing assistance, disburse-regarding the structure of expenditures (e.g. ments of Bank and donor funds should be moresalaries as opposed to other operating costs, closely tied to project performance, not just toinvestment as against maintenance, subsidies as reimbursement of project expenditures.against productive outlay, rural as opposed to Where economic and agricultural policy isurban, and the level of military expenditure). good, and where public expenditure programsProblems with projects financed by other donors for agriculture are well designed, donors shouldare often not given enough attention. One result move to support comprehensive agricultural in-is the common problem of lack of local funds vestment programs. These could involve bothfor important agricultural programs. public and private sector investments. Countries

A related problem is that the commitment of where such a situation is now developing in-many African governments to agricultural clude Zambia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Tanzania,development has been frequently overestimated. Mauritius, and Botswana. Other countries thatLack of commitment is reflected in the have potential for this include Togo, Uganda,inadequate allocation of funds to the agricultural Nigeria, and Burundi. Agreed improvements tosector. Finally, the present situation has been public expenditure programs must increasinglyexacerbated by a worsening budget squeeze in be, with good policy, a pre-condition to Bankmany countries. Bank rules requiring that Bank agricultural lending in all African countries.financing be provided to cover only New agricultural projects in countries which'incremental" recurrent costs, and this only on have a particularly poor agricultural portfolioa declining basis over the project lifetime, have need to be reviewed from a country perspective.not succeeded in inducing the increased Prior to appraisal, the sponsoring donor shouldexpenditure by governments. This Bank policy, have a convincing reason as to why the newintended to increase the financial sustainability project will function satisfactorily, whenof projects and to induce government ongoing projects are performing badly. Wherecommitment, has succeeded in doing neither. it is justifiable to undertake agricultural projects

Improved Public Expenditure Program (PEP) in these countries, the projects should often bereviews are needed, with actions to be taken to small pilot operations, or at least narrowly-increase the priority accorded to critical defined simpler projects which can be well-agricultural investments, eliminating the managed despite the poor policy environment.

116

Areas of Focus for the Bank

Support for Agricultural Investment Projects Incentives and assistance need to beimproved to allow livestock owners to take real

The Bank will support the strategic directions control of project services, pasture managementsuggested in previous chapters. In summary, the and other livestock development activities.most important project innovations will be as There is considerable potential for dairyfollows. development in high potential areas. More focus

Investment in private sector agro-processing, in livestock projects is required on privatemarketing and large farm activity needs to be sector and livestock owner management ofexpanded. Innovative ways of doing this need to marketing, input supply and veterinary services.be developed, and include targeted but Extension services need to provide livestockunsubsidized credit, equity funds which can messages.make equity investment, IFC's re-interest in this Irrigation projects can be improved withsector, support to trade and professional groups, greater ownership and management by farmersand reducing policy constraints. Parastatal and farmer's groups, less complex and moredivestiture will be supported in Bank projects by small-scale schemes. The better operation andthe financing of privatization programs, which maintenance of successful large-scale schemescan be considered as investments. The Bank should also be supported, involving water userwill help mobilize donor and private sector associations. New large-scale schemes deserveassistance. skeptical scrutiny, but not automatic exclusion.

Agricultural credit operations should expand More focus should be put on demandin the direction of farmer and privately- management and conservation in watermanaged savings and loan associations, and programs and less on supply augmentation.commercial banks operating in agriculture. The The importance of forestry and environmentBank has a role in assisting in both deve- projects, including natural resource manage-lopments, through lines of credit, technical ment, land tenure improvement, parks andassistance, establishment of guarantee funds, conservation is so great, and resourcedevelopment of banking infrastructure, requirements for such projects so large, that themobilization of donor assistance, and policy Bank will become increasingly involved inwork. them. These will have an important policy

The innovations in the design of agricultural element attached to them, and involve a largerresearch projects proposed by the SPAAR task role for NGOs and the private sector. Extensionforces studying the Sahel and SADC situations, of natural resource management messages toshould be incorporated in on-going and future local populations will be important. Projectsagricultural research projects. Most important is should be based on some form of naturalthe introduction of non-governmental actors in resource management plan to which there isagricultural research, and the complete re- popular and government commitment. These canstructuring of public sector research establish- be incorporated in Tropical Forest Action Plans,ments. Improved funding mechanisms and Forest Strategies, Environmental Action Plans,multi-country collaboration will be required, River Basin Plans, or some other planninginvolving collaborative donor effort. vehicle appropriate to the country context.

Agricultural extension projects, ongoing and These programs should follow the principlesplanned, need to include a bigger role for the discussed in Chapter 9. Projects will supportprivate sector, NGOs, cooperatives, and policy change, training, and the strengthening ofwomen. Agricultural education, mass media government institutions dealing with naturalcommunication to farmers, and expanding the resources. The Bank will undertake environ-scope of extension messages are important mental assessments for all new projects whichinnovations. may have negative environmental impact. If

117


found to have negative enviromnental impact, Improving health, education and familyprojects will either be redesigned or dropped. planning services in rural areas are important

An expansion of Bank activity in the area of inputs to agricultural development, as well asrural roads and water supply is required. This desirable in and of themselves. This is all theneeds community participation in maintenanct, more apparent with the onset of an AIDSand the use of private contractors for epidemic in some countries.construction. A reduction of the urban bias of The Bank should make expanded use of pilotAfrican government public expenditure is operations and small operations to test newneeded, and within the urban budget, relatively ideas. New ways of working through farmersmore investment is needed in secondary towns groups, NGOs, funding private enterprises,and cities and less in the large mega-cities. financial intermediation, community-basedSecondary towns and cities are more intimately infrastructure development, natural resourceconnected to agriculture, while mega-cities management, food security, among others,depend more on imports. requires considerable experimentation.

Farmer empowerment in all the areas listed The Bank should finance more operatingwill be necessary. Assistance to cooperatives, costs, and in some cases, less capital costs. Infarmers organizations and land tenure reform fact, in many agricultural operations, theare all ways of doing this. This assistance will distinction made in the past between capitallargely be in the form of training and policy investment and operating expenditure is false. Areform to permit farmer associations to major investment needed to develop Africanfunction. Beneficiary assessment should become agriculture is in building African capacity tostandard practice in Bank-financed agricultural manage the sector, In many cases, this willprojects. require donors to finance operating costs. Focus

The particular constraints of women in on capital expenditure has led to the wastefulfarming, processing, fuelwood gathering, concentration on acquisition of buildings,household management, water collection, among equipment, and other investment goods, ratherothers, need continuous special attention in all than on the management and content ofproject design (for example in extension, credit, agricultural activities and development of theland tenure, forest, and private sector in human resource base. Greater donor funding ofprojects). In many cases, interventions tailored operating costs of agricultural projects wouldto women will be necessary (targeted extension help turn attention to content rather thanmessages, support for lending to women's hardware.groups, protection of user rights to land by The Bank will have to become morefemale-headed households, support to women's responsive to initiatives developed in Africa andgroups involved in processing through training by other donors.and credit). Eliminated from Bank support will be

Food security interventions involve more integrated rural development projects; exclusivethan expanding food production. Nutrition support for parastatal agricultural marketing,interventions, employment creation among the processing and credit institutions; exclusivepoor, better food distribution, regional focus on government institutions in agricultureintegration of food markets (across country research, extension, forestry, and livestockborders), among others, are legitimate services, new large-scale irrigation projects andinterventions to be supported by the Bank. The irrigation projects managed exclusively byBank will also assist in drought emergencies as governments; and exclusive governmentit is now doing in Southern Africa, and in the construction, operation and maintenance of ruralHorn of Africa. infrastructure. The private sector and NGOs will

118

Arcas of Focus for the Bank

be systematically brought into Bank projects. prior to appraisal should include an assessmentThe Bank will move into more of a wholesale of the level of complexity of organization androle and less of a retail role. It will have to be management arrangements. Efforts should bemore responsive to local initiatives, and more made to simplify organization and managementwilling to work with others, often in a to the degree possible. Greater focus needs to becoordinating role. Other donors will have an put, during project preparation, on projectimportant role to play in helping Africans to management issues. Evidence should beimplement this strategy. required that the project will be manageable

with available staff.Strengthening Agricultural Project Overstretched governments can be assisted toManagement and Capacity more effectively use their capacity by divesting

many of their activities to the private and NGOThere are frequent reports of weak sectors. Governments should regulate less and

management from donor-financed agricultural should focus limited capacity on priorities. Theprojects. In some cases, projects are too Bank's experiment of allowing up to 100 per-complex to be managed by available government cent Bank financing of total recurrent costs forstaff. In most cases, providing technical assis- agricultural research, but treating such costs astance does not compensate for this situation. investments, will be closely monitored. This isProject-financed training programs in most cases applicable to other human resource investmentsdo not resolve the problem. Often, training pro- such as agricultural extension and naturalgrams are potential solutions, but are poorly resource management and will assist in fullydesigned, or not designed at all at project start- utilizing available African capacity.up when they are needed. But the fundamental The counterpart funding problem common toproblem is the frequent lack of capacity by many projects must be dealt with through thegovernment staff to manage development pro- PERs as indicated previously, greater effort atjects, as discussed in Chapter 10. the design stage to ensure government commit-

To resolve this problem, the design of ment, greater caution by the Bank in goingproject related training needs to be clearly forward with projects for which governmentdefined, with implementation beginning before commitment is not adequate, increasing the roleproject start-up or at least in the first year of of the private and NGO sectors in projects (tostart-up. More emphasis on training is generally reduce the government's fiscal burden), andneeded in all projects, especially in project financing up to 100 percent of total recurrentmanagement, procurement and accounting. costs on a long-term declining basis forAgricultural education projects, focusing on the agricultural research projects, and for otherquality of education rather than on infrastructure agriculture service projects when there iswill be financed to address the generic problem sufficient country justification.of management and technica3 skills. Capacitywill also be developed through strengthened The World Bank's Lending Program,investment in rural education generally, and in 1992-1997higher agricultural education (see Chapter 10).

Projects should be simplified to fit Lhe ability These priorities will be undertaken largely,of managers, with training, to implement. There though not exclusively, through the projectsshould be less recourse to expatriate technical receiving World Bank financing. The presentassistance. All reviews of a project in the Bank program is as follows for July 1992-June 1997.

119

A Strategy to Develop Agriculturm in Sub-Saharan Afic and a Focus for the World Bank

Table 11.1. World Bank Agriculture Operations

Loan AmountNumber of Projects US$ million

Agriculture Sector loans, and sector investment 11 612.2

Agriculture services (research, extension, seeds, inputs) 32 1142.9

Agro-industry, private sector, cooperatives, credit and 15 674.6marketing

Forestry, environment, natural resource management, 23 760.7land tenure

Food security (self-standing) 4 159.7

Irrigation and Drainage 6 210.1

Livestock/fisheries 9 302.1

TOTAL 100 3862.3

Other operations which will have an impact include water supply - loan amount: US$287on agriculture, although are not directly focused million; nine population projects - loan amount:on agriculture, include the following: fifteen US$327.6 million. The Bank's various Struc-transport projects including rural roads' - loan tural Adjustment Loans will also influenceamount: US$844.3 million; eight projects which agricultural growth.2

Notes

1. The loan amounts direct to the rural road components are not identified separately.

2. Generally, these projects are directed at macro-economic policy reform which affectsagriculture.

120

ANNEX

Tables

Table A-1. Popvlo4cei Growth Rates and Ferdlity Rates

Average annal growth of populaion (oercent)

Toud FcrWtily

Projected 1990- RazsCountry 196540 1980-90 2000 1965 1990

Sub-Sahar Africa 2.7 3.1 3.0 6.6 6.5

Angola 2.8 2.5 3.0 6.4 6.5Benin 2.7 3.2 2.9 6.8 6.3BotUwUn 3.5 3.4 2.5 6.9 4.7Burkina Fao 2.1 2.6 2.9 6.4 6.5BurUndi 1.9 2.8 3.I 6.4 6.8Cameroon 2.7 3.2 2.9 5.2 5.8Cape Verde 1.6 2.4 2.8 - -Central African Republic 1.9 2.7 2.5 4.5 5.SChad 2.0 2.4 2.7 6.0 6.0Comoros 2.2 3.5 - -

Congo 2.S 3.5 3.3 5.7 6.6COt dlvoire 4.1 4.0 3.5 7.4 6.7Djibouti - 3.3 - -Equitorial Guinea 1.7 1.9 2.3 - -

Ethiopia 2.7 2.9 3.4 5.8 7.5Gabon 3.6 3.9 2.8 4.1 5.7Ganbia, The 3.0 3.3 3.1 - -

Ghana 2.2 3.4 3.0 6.3 6.2Guinea 1.5 2.4 2.8 5.9 6.5Guinea-Bissau 2.9 1.9 - - -Kenya 3.6 3.S 3.5 8.0 6.5Lesotho 2.3 2.7 2.6 5.8 5.6Liberia 3.0 3.2 2.6 - -

Madagar 2.5 2.8 2.8 6.6 6.3Malawi 2.9 3.4 3.4 7.8 7.6Mali 2.1 2.4 3.0 6.5 7.1Mauritania 2.3 2.6 2.8 6.5 6.8Mauritius 1.6 1.0 0.9 4.8 1.9Mozambique 2.5 2.7 3.0 6.8 6.4Niger 2.6 3.5 3.3 7.1 7.2Nigeria 2.5 3.3 2.8 6.9 6.0Rwanda 3.3 3.3 3.9 7.5 8.3SaO Tome & Principe 2.1 2.7 - - -

Senegal 2.9 3.0 3.1 6.4 6.5Seychelles 1.9 0.7 1.0 - -

Sierra Leone 2.0 2.4 2.6 6.4 6.5Somalia 2.7 3.0 3.1 6.7 6.8Sudan 2.8 3.1 2.8 6.7 6.3Swaziland 2.8 3.3 3.5 -

TanzAnia 3.3 3.5 3.1 6.6 6.6Togo 3.0 3.5 3.2 6.5 6.6Uganda 2.9 3.2 3.3 7.0 7.3Zaire 2.8 3.1 3.0 6.0 6.2Zambia 3.0 3.9 3.1 6.6 6.7Zimbabwe 3.1 3.7 2.4 8.0 4.9

India 2.3 2.2 2.0 6.2 4.0China 2.1 1.4 1.7 6.4 2.5

a. Projections re based on preset trends. Hence the slight decline in growth rare results only from theslightly decliniag trend in a few countries. The projections include the position impact of HIV. Theydo not include the impact of more successful population programs.

b. Total ferClity rate (aFR) is the average number of children who would be born alive to a woman (orgroup of women) during her lifetime if she were to pass through ber childbearing years confirming tothe age-specific fertility rates of a given year.

Source: World Developmen Indicarors, World Bnk, 1992

123

Tabl A-2a. AgrHcaifru 's 9harc hi GDr

Agricaurt'J

harw hI GDP

Cowury 1965 1990

Sub-Saharan AfSa 40 32

Angola - 13Benin 59 37Botswana 34 3Burkina Fam 37 32Burundi 56Cameroon 33 27Cape Verde - -Central African Republic 46 42Chad 42 38ComorosCongo, People's Republic 19 13Cate d'lvoire 47 47Djibouti -Equatorial GuineaEthiopia 58 41Gabon 26 9Gambia, The - -Ghana 44 48Guinea - 28Guinea-Bisau - -Kenya 35 28Leotho 65 24Liberia 27Madagscar 25 33Malawi 50 33Mali 65 46Mauritania 32 26Mauritius 16 12Mozambique 65Niger 68 36Nigeria 55 36Rwanda 75 38Sao Tome and PrincipeSenegal 25 21SeychelleoSierra Leone 34 32Somalia 71 65Sudan 54SwazilandTanzania 46 59Togo 45 33Uganda 52 67Zaire 20 30Zambia 14 17Zimbabwe 18 3

India 44 31China 38 27

Source: World Developme Reporr, 1992, World Bank, 1992.

124

Tabk A-2b. 4g6cubaW Grvwh (Value Added)

Average Annual Percemage Change

Couy 1965-73 1974-80 1981-85 1986-89 1990 1991

Sub-SaharanAfWca' 2.2 1.0 0.6 2.4 1.S 2.1

excluding Nigena 2.1 2.1 0.2 1.9 1.1 1.0

Botawan 12.4 -1.3 -8.1 19.5 3.7 2.7Lesotho - -1.2 -3.1 15.4 15.4

Cape Verde - - 4.0 12.0 -3.8 9.3

Congo, People's Republic of 4.1 2.2 2.0 7.2 0.1 -1.0

Mali 0.9 7.3 -6.4 7.0 -3.5 -3.2

Guinea-Biueu - -5.0 2.8 6.4 2.5 5.7

Mozeambique - - -2.4 6.2 1.2Chad -0.7 40.2 6.3 6.1 8.9 20.0Uganda - - - 6.0 3.4 2.9

Zanbia 2.0 0.9 2.3 5.7 -7.3

Togo 2.6 2.3 7.3 5.2 -1.2 40.7

Benin - 4.6 7.4 5.0 1.4 4.5Comoros - - - 4.5 2.8 3.9

Tanznia 3.1 0.3 3.5 4.5 2.9

Kenya 6.2 4.6 1.7 4.3 3.5 -0.7

Nigeria 2.9 -2.0 2.1 4.3 4.1 5.0

Ethiopia 2.1 0.9 -5.4 4.1 0.2 8.0Sierra Leone 1.5 10.4 2.6 3.6 1.7 3.1

C&e d'livoire 4.9 4.5 -1.2 3.6 4.2 -1.5

Madagascar - -0.9 2.8 3.2 1.5Burkins Faso - -0.5 1.7 3.1 -3.4 4.7

Sonalia - 14.0 2.2 3.0 1.3

Zirmbabwe - -1.6 4.0 2.9 -6.6Ghana 4.5 0.8 -0.4 2.7 -2.0 4.1Zaire -1.7 0.9 2.6 2.6 2.6

Guinea - - - 2.5 3.1 2.2

Swaziland 8.0 3.8 0.5 2.2 2.2b -

Equitorial Guinea - - - 2.0 3.1 -1.3

Senegal 0.2 -2.2 1.6 1.8 10.3 -3.0

Malawi 4.1 4.9 4.4 1.8 0.0 14.2

Burundi 10.6 1.8 1.1 1.5 5.6 2.2Central African Republic 2.1 1.5 2.5 1.5 0.0 -3.1

Mauritania -2.1 0.7 -1.1 1.0 -14.5 -

Gambia, The 4.5 -3.4 -3.7 0.9 -14.1 -

Gabon - - 2.7 0.1 3.3 -2.7

Cameoon 4.6 4.9 -1.4 -0.3 2.0 0.0

Sao Tome & Principe - - 0.1 -0.3 3.5 -

DjibouLi - - -1.0 -1.0b -

Angola - - -0.5 -1.3 -1.3 -

Seychelles - 0.7 -2.9 -3.8 12.9 -

Sudan 0.3 1.4 0.2 -4.7 -3.6 -4.2

Rwanda - 8.3 0.2 -5.0 5.4 0.1

Maurilius - -5.6 1.8 -6.5 31.3 -2.8Niger -2.9 1.3 2.3 - 2.3 -

Namibia - - -

Liberia

125

Tabk A-2b (and)COUy 1965-73 197440 198141 19849 19 1991MAt 4o.ca 3.3 3.6 4.4 2.5 -5.2 17.2A4cr 2.5 5.9 4.5 3.4 -17.0 35.0Bgypt, Aeb Republe of 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.tLibya - -Morocco 4.3 3.7 7.5 4.3 -6.7 20.3Tunisa 6.6 0.3 5.5 -4.6 27.7 15.3AU 4Afrca (EcL SouskA4Wca) 2.5 1.6 1.5 2.5 -0.2 6.6

South Africa 2.5 2.5 -2.5 5.4 -9.4 -Cau.pwua Grcoim G 3.1 2.1 5.4 4.7 5.6 1.3China 2.3 2.0 9.0 3.3 7.5 3.2inda 3.3 1.7 2.9 7.1 4.2 0.0IndoAsaa 4.5 4.1 3.0 3.5 2.5 0.9South As (Bxut. India> 2.2 2.4 3.6 1.9 6.3 3.3

a. Exchuding Sout Africab. Pvioaw evaihable cokum figui epatedc. Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakisan, Sri Lanka

Source: National treee u collected by World Bank regional county econoraisa and collated for the Global Coalition for Africa by the Trdeand Fuaee Division, Technical Departret, Africa Region, World Bank.

126

TaJe A-3. Fun Sea"

Pepsda fac*u Pterugu qf AWsW aapdy dU Avga .mId- _Ier b pis'f-ed Mwuedi POPdedemfee&g Per cq0a dd ca&we perwootave qpmb*am edu perw fiedpredim&

Cea7 (,WIN-) feed "bVo tp -Foy (*ea) a of-) 1 1 )

A19J0/82 19=/I 1INS 1 19849 198 1974 19 1964-66 lse-go

Sn u,ws S A ka 91 28 2,074 2,027 37 4,209 7,338 94

Aiolle - - 1,907 1,742 74 149 272 127 Deem I is 2,019 2,115 92 a 126 94 112

Bdowwo - - 2.025 2,251 97 21 87 134 112brkina Faso 2 32 3182 202 U4 99 145 113 114ansdAi I 26 2,131 2,320 100 7 17 100 92

Camenom 1 9 2,011 2,142 92 31 398 39 39Cap Verdo - - 2,500 107 163Ceal AAfricaep. 1 29 2,055 1,965 17 7 37 94 91Chad 2 54 2,395 1,321 76 37 36 124 I5Comour - - - 2,059 as -. - 114CaPgo. Paqala'ep. 0 27 2,260 2,519 114 34 94 110 94CdA d'lvoe;r I S 2,352 2,405 104 172 502 73 303Djil - - - -EqaerW Guims - - - - - -Ethiopia I5 46 1,J53 1,684 72 III 87 111 UGCbo. 0 7 1,955 2,39n 103 24 57 110 U4Gaurbis, T 0 19 2,339 - - 152 _Chom 4 36 1,937 2,167 94 177 337 120 97

Guia - - 2,187 2,007 37 63 210 106 87Guiea-_am - - 2,437 106 - 140KeIya 6 37 2,20S 2,016 S7 I5S In 119 106LaNO&ho - 2,049 2,275 300 4S 97 120 36Liber 1 30 2,153 2,344 101 42 70 95 4Madapeca 1 13 2,447 2,174 9f 114 U3 105 #maawi I 24 2,259 2,057 39 17 I15 n7 U3Mali 3 35 1,938 2,114 90 281 61 100 97imtatma 0 25 1,903 2,465 107 116 i5 143 U6Maurisius 0 9 2,269 2,690 II3 160 210 I31 100Mazamtbrque 6 49 1,712 1,604 68 62 416 132 8JNiger 2 2J 1,996 2,321 98 55 U6 105 71Nigeria 14 17 2,1385 2,0S3 # 339 502 125 106RtWA, 1 24 1,856 1,J17 73 3 21 73 77SoO TOeW ad Pui nmpe - - 2,529 306 - - -Senapl 1 21 2,372 2,162 91 341 534 156 102Seyelle - - 2,117 91 - - -Sisrr taone 1 23 2,014 13813 79 72 146 99 nSo_ma 2 So 1,718 1,731 77 42 194 144 94Sudan 3 is 1,933 I3,3 *4 125 86 39 71Swazilad - 2,554 110 - 68 -Tania 7 35 3,331 2,16 94 431 73 n7 UTqog 1 29 2,454 2,110 92 6 II1 IIJ1 tUganda 6 46 2,361 2,034 as 36 7 [l30 9Zaire 12 42 2,137 2,079 93 343 336 110 97Zamnbia 3 4S 2,072 2,028 *7 93 300 98 303Zimnbbwe - 2,075 2,193 92 56 U3 96 94

a. Average per capita daily cakeie supply data for 3931959 divided by requirement e*abGaed by iha WHO For eaeh country.

Abu: Food ecurity is defined as aceer to etaough food for on aciave end healthy life. The rninimum daily calorie rquiremert to mwet the energy needs ofan averate bealthy paens, as eaaluad by d We. MHealth OranizaLion of each counstry. is uken into account. Index of food producion, cereal imnpons, per capita calories supply 1965: Woed Developm Indalcras, 1992, Wodd Bank, 3992, except fa Oui_U-_it. TGarnbis, Cornorus, Sao Tome and Principe, Cape Verde, Seychelles, Swaziland for which the soume Is Sub-Saharm AJriea: Cris to Susainable Greu,h. A Long-Tenm Pertpecdwe Study, Woeld Bank, 3 . Past capita 9alperasupply 19UFI989; 4Mrcan Dewlopirnln Indicawrs IfS2, World B*nkUNDP, 1992, p. 322.

Table A-4. Crop r.elds

Cereals Roots and tubers

Percentage PercentageChange Change

kglha Compared to kglha Compared toCowauy 1984-86 1964-66 1984-86 1964-66

Sub-Sahann Affica - - -

Angok 461 -47 14,088 22Benin 825 54 8,241 34Botuwana 178 -52 5,385 35Burkina Faso 690 33 6,568 96Burundi 1,101 12 7,538 -3Cameroon 935 18 2,455 10Cape Verde 551 -11 3,007 -27Central African Rep. 513 -31 3,882 10Chad 531 -13 5,182 14Cornoros 1,116 -15 3,259 -4Congo, People's Rep. 622 -43 6,457 31Cote d'Ivoire 981 23 6,282 70DjiboutiEquatorial Guinea - - 2,395 -33Ethiopia 1,081 39 2,827 -7Gabon 1,481 -6 6,393 0Gambia, The 1,207 15 3,000 -32Ghana 969 7 8,641 5Guinea 728 -10 7,089 -5Guinea-Bias& 848 19 6,154 0Kenya 1,611 31 8,929 21Lesotho 683 -12 15,000 3Liberia 1,302 107 4,014 -3Madagascar 1,731 1 5,926 -7Malawi 1,162 24 4,231 -13Mali 807 3 9,240 12Mauritania 431 20 1,903 -24Mauritius 3,200 59 25,939 108Mozambique 660 -29 5,783 20Niger 366 -30 8,877 10Nigeria 1,121 67 11,260 43Rwands 1,289 2 7,780 42Sao Tome and Principe - - - -

Senegal 709 24 4,232 2SeychellesSierra Leone 1,431 8 3,425 -6Somalia 725 47 10,792 8Sudan 508 -27 3,408 -1Swaziland 1,528 225 1,815 -53Tanzania 1,109 41 11,075 109Togo 865 83 10,498 -12Uganda 949 5 6,432 64Zaire 851 24 7,016 4Zambia 1,747 106 3,687 13Zimnbabwe 1,460 63 4,907 22

India 1,590 76 14,268 61China 3,891 122 15,614 81

Source: World Development Report, World Bank, 1991.

128

Table A-S. Growth Rates of Cereal and Major E&port Crop Yields

Average Annua Percentage Growth

CereaLs Major export crop

Contry 1975480 198085 1986-MR 1975480 1980-85 1986-MR

Angola (maize,coffee) -6.1 -4.5 -6.9 -21.4 -19.7 -14.3Benin (maize, cotton) 1.2 3.8 7.0 -2.0 13.6 -0.8Botswana (maize, n.a.) -28.7 -11.9 -16.2 - - -

Burkina Paso (maize, cotton) 7.4 -1.9 7.7 5.5 7.3 -5.3

Burundi (maize, coffee) -1.3 0.6 -0.8 4.2 9.6 -1.3

Cameroon (maize, coffee) -7.3 0.3 4.0 2.8 0.6 -10.3CAR (maize, coffee) -2.4 16.9 -4.6 -1.0 1.6 4.4

Chad (sorghum, cotton) -0.8 -1.8 0.0 2.0 6.9 -4.8Congo (maize, coffee) 3.7 -4.5 7.4 18.7 1.0 16.2C6te d'Ivoire (maize, coffee) 6.3 1.8 -1.2 -6.5 -10.8 4.4Eq. Guinea (casava, coffee) -0.4 -1.7 -0.3 0.8 1.4 0.0Ethiopia (maize, coffee) -2.5 -5.1 1.2 3.7 1.0 3.2

Gabon (maize, coffee) 4.1 -3.0 7.6 1.6 9.9 2.9

Gambia, The (maize, cotton) 11.8 3.0 -3.1 - -5.5 0.6Ghana (maize, cocoa) -2.9 -0.5 5.9 -3.6 -1.0 11.2Guinea (mnaize, coffee) -3.3 2.4 -0.1 -0.1 -3.7 -2.2Guinea-Bissau (maize, groundnuts) -1.2 3.6 -11.4 -3.5 5.1 2.5

Kenya (maize, coffee) -7.2 4.0 -1.3 3.9 -5.9 -0.6

Lesotho (maize, wheat) 11.4 -4.6 6.3 3.8 -12.3 3.5Liberia (rice, coffee) 0.5 0.0 -1.0 7.5 3.9 -23.2

Madagauar (rice, coffee) -1.4 1.5 3.3 -1.7 -1.1 0.6

Malawi (maize, tea) 3.5 -0.1 4.3 1.6 1.1 1.8

Mali (maize, cotton) 12.9 2.9 5.2 1.2 2.6 -3.1

Mauritania (maize, rice) 11.6 -9.6 -4.2 -2.1 7.0 -1.6

Mauritius (potatoes, sugarcane) 1.7 8.7 0.3 1.1 2.1 -3.7

Mozambique (maize, cotton) 4.7 -2.7 0.0 1.3 -7.4 -11.8Namibia (maize, wheat) -0.9 0.6 2.9 0.0 4.3 -5.3

Niger (sorghum, groundnuts) 6.3 -10.2 -0.2 28.7 -11.5 9.2Nigeria (maize, cocoa) -1.3 -5.2 1.5 -4.5 -6.7 15.9

Rwanda (maize, coffee) 1.4 0.5 0.4 3.3 2.2 7.9

Senegal (maize, cotton) -6.5 9.7 6.4 -3.7 -1.4 7.6

Sierra Leone (rice, coffee) -3.8 2.5 -4.3 13.7 -11.2 -17.8

Somalia (maize, banans) -1.41 8.5 -6.7 1.0 -0.1 -0.8

Sudan (sorghum, cotton) -2.7 -9.1 -4.8 -4.5 20.0 5.3

Swaziland (maize, cotton) -3.6 -0.8 7.7 6.4 -1.5 0.0

Tanzania (mnaize, coffee) 1.0 1.1 9.7 -1.8 -0.4 -8.3Togo (maize, coffee) -0.8 -1.5 20.9 -5.7 -13.1 4.6

Uganda (maize, coffee) 1.1 -3.1 2.7 -8.3 4.9 10.2Zaire (maize, coffee) 2.1 1.0 2.4 -4.3 -0.2 0.4Zambia (maizc, cotton) 3.3 0.9 3.9 -5.4 11.5 -2.5Zimbabwe (maize, cotton) -6.0 -1.5 1.1 0.8 3.3 -15.0

Note: MR: Most Recent Year

Source: Afiican Developnent Indicators, 1992, UNDPlWorld Bank, 1992.

129

Tablk A-6. AgrcaburaJ Erports - Valt and Volum

Average Annual Percentage Growth

Value Volum

CowsI,D 1975480 1980-85 19865-MR 1975-80 198-85 1986-MR

Sub-Sahara Afrka 9.6 -2.4 -3.1 -0.8 -2.9 -2.5

Angola -2.4 -13.0 -36.5 -19.1 -14.2 -12.3Beain 12.9 17.6 5.4 1.6 5.9 2.8Botawaa 3.2 0.8 3.5 -10.0 10.4 -28.0Burkina Paso 10.9 -5.1 17.5 -0.8 -4.1 0.9Burundi 13.2 9.5 -15.9 -14.4 10.0 10.2Cameroon 17.7 -5.2 -1.2 -1.2 0.0 1.5Cape Verde 43.5 -23.3 18.6 -12.0 -6.7 -11.5CAR 13.2 -0.9 -5.0 -5.6 -0.3 1.8Chad 14.2 6.1 9.0 3.2 -6.6 -4.2Comoro. 9.7 0.9 -5.9 -1.6 8.5 -32.3Congo 6.6 4.1 -3.5 -24.8 34.2 1.6C6te d'lvoire 19.9 1.5 -8.6 2.3 3.6 -4.0Eq. Guinea 2.5 8.7 -16.4 -7.2 7.7 4.4Ethiopia 13.7 -2.9 -11.2 -14.5 8.1 11.2Gabon 48.9 -10.0 -19.3 13.5 -3.0 -11.5Gambia, The -9.1 -1.6 3.1 -11.6 -3.6 23.2Ghana 7.2 -10.6 -7.4 -13.4 -5.1 8.6Guinea 13.3 -10.4 0.2 3.4 -8.2 -1.3Guine-BiDsau 7.8 8.1 11.5 0.6 0.2 -3.8Kenya 15.2 1.7 -4.6 1.8 O.5 -1.7Lesotho 12.2 4.2 16.2 -3.8 -5.6 -56.9Libera 21.4 -2.5 -5.0 0.9 2.3 -2.5Madagascar 9.8 -6.1 -10.4 -5.5 -3.4 1.6Malawi 13.5 0.7 10.0 11.3 5.0 -11.7Mali 20.7 -2.1 9.6 13.0 -0.5 -6.0Mauritania 15.9 -3.9 1.5 0.1 -6.7 -6.0Mauritius 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.4 -0.7 1.7Mozambique 7.0 -26.7 -1.1 -6.8 -23.9 17.0Namibia 7.9 -3.8 9.5 - -2.1 10.0Niger 18.6 -6.6 -7.2 5.5 -3.3 -14.0Nigeria 3.2 -6.1 -7.4 -3.5 -17.2 1.8Rwanda 10.3 1.6 -11.4 -19.7 6.0 -0.3Sao Tome & Principe 24.7 -14.8 -10.4 6.2 -12.5 -3.1Senegal -12.4 6.7 22.0 -18.1 -3.0 33.2Seycheles 13.4 -14.9 -19.4 -4.7 -7.9 -37.2Sierra Leone 18.7 -1.7 -24.2 -7.3 -2.4 -0.4Somalia 11.2 -14.3 -7.8 6.4 -10.6 -21.7Sudan 4.2 -4.1 13.4 6.6 -6.9 24.2Swaziland 14.0 -12.7 6.2 -7.0 2.3 -8.0Tanzania 4.2 -10.0 -3.1 -4.6 -10.4 7.0Togo 18.3 1.3 -4.8 0.9 0.6 -8.9Uganda 4.8 5.1 -18.8 -15.3 8.2 2.1Zaire 0.3 2.8 -19.3 -6.5 -2.7 -12.6Zambia -2.6 4.9 2.7 -18.7 31.0 -31.6Zimbabwe 2.4 -1.2 8.3 -11.8 3.6 -10.7

Now: MR: Most Recent Year

Source.: 4rkan Development Indkators, 1992, UNDP/WorWd Bank, 1992.

130

Tabk Al-. Producer Prce Shares (Rado of offc, prodwcers price tonternational reference price)

Average

Contry Commodity 1975179 1980/85 1986-AM

Angola Coffee .22 .45 .96Benin Cotton Lint .45 .41 .54Botswana Groundnut - .61 -

Burkina Paso Cotton .42 .34 .56Burundi Coffee .51 .60 .60Cameroon Cotton .42 .37 .40CAR Coffee .29 .18 .34Chad Cotton .75 .51 .54Comoros Vanilla .43 .32 .42Congo Coffee .21 .26 1.09Cote d'Ivoire Cocoa Beans .40 .51 .79Eq. Guinea Cocoa - .79 .90Ethiopia Coffee 45 .39 .42Gabon Cocoa .57 .49 .63Gambia, The Groundnut .54 .62 .71Ghana Cocoa .30 .87 .25Guinea Palm Kennel 1.08 .86 .62Guinea-Bisuu Groundnut .63 .51 .34Kenya Coffee .82 .88 .95Lesotho Wheat - 1.40 1.26Liberia Coffee .42 .64 .79Madagascar Coffee .40 .29 .38Malawi Groundnut .47 .65 1.01Mali Cotton .34 .39 .50Mauritius Sugar .90 .61 .52Mozambique Tea .64 .56 .33Niger Cotton .35 .45 1.13Nigeria Cocoa .53 1.12 .49Rwanda Coffee .58 .89 .81Sao Tome & Principe Cocoa .36 99Senegal Groundnut .42 .42 .81Sierra Leone Cocoa .47 .66 .42Somalia Ban - .43 .33Sudan Groundnut .55 .40 .96Swaziland Cotton .46 .29 .27Tanzania Coffee .39 .55 .36Togo Coffee .24 .31 .54Uganda Coffee .13 .22 .14Zaire Coffee .18 .45 -

Zambia Tobcco .75 .87 .36Zimbabwe Tobacco .66 .62 .58

Note: MR: Most Recent Year

Source: fican Development Indicators, 1992, UNDP/World Bank, 1992.

131

Tabk A-8. Irrigaton ad Fertdzer Use

Furnilbr coau dtionPercentage of(IYgRairrigatad Lan0g

Country 1985487 19771 1989-90

Su&aSaharan Africa 4 33 89

Angola 0 33 74Benin 0 36 18Botswana 0 15 7Burkina Fao 0 3 58Burundi 5 5 35Cameroon 0 34 41Cape Verde 5 - -Central Afican Rep. - 12 4Chad 0 7 15Comorom I - -

Congo 2 525 32Cote d'lvoire - 74 113Djibouti 1 - -Equatorial Guinea - - -Ethiopia 7 4 70Gabon 0 - 27Gambia, The 4 - -Ghana - 11 31Guinea 2 44 11Guinea-Bisuu - - -

Kenya I 238 481Lesotho 28 10 144Liberia 1 63 107Madagascar 9 61 36Malawi 6 52 227Mali 16 31 S4Mauritania 3 11 116Mauritius 1 2095 3302Mozambique 3 22 8Niger 0 1 8Nigeria - 2 121Rwanda 3 3 14Sao Tome and Principe - - -

Senegal 2 17 55Scychelles 12 - -

Sierra Leone 15 17 3Somalia 38 27 26Sudan 3 28 39Swaziland 0Tanzania 0 31 93Togo 0 3 83Uganda 0 14 1Zaie 0 6 10Zambia 0 73 166Zimbabwe 7 446 604

India 26 137 687China 44 410 2619

a. Irrigated land u percentage of amble and permanent crop land; World ResourcesLnstitute.

b. Fertilizer consumption in terms of hundreds of grams of plant nutrients per h1ctar ofamble land; World Indicators 1992, World Bank, 1992.

132

Table A-9. Land Use

Land use as a percentage of total kindWildemess area as

Country Cropland Pasture Forest Other Total land area percent of ta land1tkX ha) area

1965 1980 1987 1965 1980 1987 1965 1980 1987 1965 1980 1987 1987 1985

Sub-Saharan Aftica 6 7 7 27 27 27 33 31 30 34 35 36 2,15S,466 28

Angola 3 3 3 23 23 23 44 43 43 30 31 31 124,670 26Benin 13 16 17 4 4 4 44 36 33 39 44 47 11,062 15Botswana 2 2 2 74 78 78 2 2 2 23 18 I8 56,673 63Burkina Faso 8 13 11 37 37 37 30 26 25 26 27 27 27,3S0 3Burundi 39 51 52 24 35 36 2 2 3 35 11 10 2,565 0Cameroon 12 Is Is 19 IS la 59 55 53 10 12 14 46,540 3Cape Verde 10 10 10 6 6 6 0 0 0 84 84 84 403 42Central African Rep. 3 3 3 5 5 5 58 58 58 34 34 34 62,298 39Chad 2 3 3 36 36 36 12 11 10 50 51 51 125,920 52Cornoro 38 41 44 7 7 7 16 16 16 39 37 34 223Congo 2 2 2 29 29 29 64 63 62 5 6 7 34,150 16C6te d'lvoire 8 10 I1 9 9 9 60 31 20 22 50 59 31,800 0Djibouti - - - 9 9 9 0 0 0 91 91 91 2,318 35Equatorial Guinea 8 a a 4 4 4 46 46 46 42 42 42 2,805 0Ethiopia II 13 13 42 41 41 27 26 25 20 21 22 110,100 22Gabon 1 2 2 20 18 IS 78 78 78 2 2 2 25,767Ganbia, 'e 13 16 17 9 9 9 30 22 17 48 54 57 1,000 0Ghana 12 12 12 16 15 15 43 38 36 31 35 37 23,002 0Guinea 6 6 6 12 12 12 49 43 41 33 38 41 24,586 0Guinea-Bisaau 9 10 12 38 38 38 39 38 38 13 13 12 2,812 0Kenya 3 4 4 7 7 7 S 7 6 82 83 83 56,697 25Leaotho 13 10 11 73 66 66 - - - I5 24 24 3,035 S0Liberia 4 4 4 2 2 2 22 22 22 72 72 72 9,632 17Madagascar 4 5 5 58 58 58 31 27 25 7 9 11 58,154 2Malawi 21 25 25 20 20 20 54 54 46 5 2 9 9,408 10Mali 1 2 2 25 25 25 8 7 7 66 67 67 122,019 49Mauritania 0 0 0 38 38 38 15 15 15 47 47 47 102,522 74Mauritius 51 SS 58 4 4 4 34 31 31 12 7 7 1ss I1Mozarmbique 3 4 4 56 56 56 22 20 19 18 20 21 78,409 9Niger 2 3 3 8 8 7 3 2 2 87 87 88 126,670 53Nigeria 32 33 34 21 23 23 23 1S 16 24 26 27 91,077 2Rwanda 26 41 45 34 19 16 23 21 20 17 20 19 2,495 0Sao Tore & Principe 35 38 39 1 1 1 - - - 64 61 60 96 -Senegal 23 27 27 30 30 30 35 31 31 12 12 12 19,253 -Seychellcs 19 19 22 - - - 19 19 19 63 63 59 27 0Sierra Leone 20 25 25 31 31 31 30 30 29 19 15 15 7,162 0Sormlia I I 1 46 46 46 16 Is 14 37 38 38 62,734 24Sudan 5 5 5 24 24 24 24 21 20 47 51 51 237,600 40Swaziland 8 If 10 78 64 68 8 6 6 6 19 16 1,720 0Tanzania 4 6 6 40 40 40 51 49 48 5 6 7 88,604 10Togo 20 26 26 4 4 4 45 31 25 31 39 45 5,439 0Uganda 24 28 34 25 25 25 32 30 29 19 16 13 19,955 4Zaire 3 3 3 4 4 4 80 78 77 13 Is 16 226,760 6Zasrbia 7 7 7 47 47 47 42 40 39 4 6 6 74,072 24Zimbabwe 5 7 7 13 13 13 52 52 52 30 29 29 38,667 1

India 55 - 57 5 - 4 20 22 20 - 17 297,319 20China 11 - if 31 - 31 12 - 14 46 - 44 932,641 20

a. Refers only to areas larger than 4,000 square kiloneters. Wilderess amres is defined as land left in ita natural suate without any tranafomnation by human action. Tbese areas may partly include forema, pasture andother lands as clasaified by FAO.

Source: World Resources 1988-89, FAO, World Resource lintitute, and the International Institute for Environrent and Development (in collaboration with the UN Environment Progranme), 1988.

Table A-10. Per Capita Arabk Land

Per capita arable Jand area *c1ares)

Country 1965 1980 1987 1990 2CLI0

Sub-Saharan Afrca 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.29 0.22

Angola 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.36 0.28Benin 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.40 0.30Botswana 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.06 0.70Burkina F"o 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.40 0.25Burundi 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.24 0.18Camermon 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.59 0.43Cape Verde 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.11 0.08Central African Rep. 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.66 0.48Chad 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.56 0.51Comoros 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.18 0.15Congo, People's Rep. 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.07 0.22C6te d'lvoire 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.31 0.20Djibouti - - - - 0.51Equatorial Guinea 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.65 0.20Ethiopia 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.28 0.35Gabon 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.39 0.15Gambia, The 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.21 0.14Ghana 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.18 0.20Guinea 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.13 0.28Guinea-Bissau 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.35 0.07Kenya 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.15Lesotho 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.18 0.12Liberia 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.14 0.20Madagascar 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.26 0.19Malawi 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.28 0.21Mali 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.23 0.00Mauritania 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.09Mauritius 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.15Mozambique 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.20 0.36Niger 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.47 0.19Nigeria 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.29 0.11Rwanda 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.16 0.23Sao Tome and Principe 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.51Senegal 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.71 0.08Seychelles 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.33Sierra Leone 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.43 0.07Somalia 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.14 0.36Sudan 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.50 0.16Swaziland 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.21 0.14Tanzania 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.19 0.28Togo 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.41 0.28Uganda 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.36 0.14Zaire 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.22 0.45Zambia 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.62 0.21Zirnbabwe 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.29

India 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.16

a. 1987 arable land areas have been divided by the projected population of the year 2000.

Source: FAO; World Development Report, 1991, World Bank, 1991; World Resources 1992-93, WorldResources Institute, 1992.

134

Table A-l1. Forest Area and Deforestation

Deforestation, 1980s

Countny Forest and Thousand Reforestation,Woodland 1980 Percent per hectares per 1980s (thousand

(thousand year year hectares perhectares) year)

Sub-Saharan Africa 678,900 0.6 3,764 229

Angola 53,600 0.2 94 4Benin 3,867 1.7 67 0Botswana 32,560 0.1 20Burkina Faso 4,735 1.7 80 3Burundi 41 2.7 1 3Cameroon 22,300 0.8 190 2Cape Verde - - 0Central African Rep. 35,890 0.2 55Chad 13,500 0.6 80 0Comoros 16 3.1 1 0Congo - 0.1 22 0Cote d'Ivoirc 9,834 5.2 S10 8Djibouti 106 -

Equatorial Guinea 1,295 0.2 3Ethiopia 27,150 0.3 88 13Gabon 20,575 0.1 15 1Gambia, The 215 2.4 5 0Ghana 8,693 0.8 72 3Guinea 10,650 0.8 86 0Guinea-Bissau 2,105 2.7 57 0Kenya 2,360 1.7 39 13Lesotho - - 0Liberia 2,040 2.3 46 3Madagascar 13,200 1.2 156 15Malawi 4,271 3.5 150 1Mali 7,250 0.5 36 1Mauritania 554 2.4 13 0Mauritius 3 3.3 0 0Mozambique 15,435 0.8 120 5Niger 2,550 2.6 67 3Nigeria 14,750 2.7 400 32Rwanda 230 2.3 5 4Sao Tome and Principe - -

Senegal 11,045 0.5 50 4Seychelles - -

Sierra Leone 2,055 0.3 6 0Somalia 9,050 0.1 14 2Sudan 47,650 1.1 504 17Swaziland 74 - 0 7Tanzania 42,040 0.3 130 11Togo 1,684 0.7 12 1Uganda 6,015 0.8 50 2Zaire 177,590 0.2 370 1Zambia 29,510 0.2 70 3Zimbabwe 19,820 0.4 80 6

Source: Draft data from Table 13, Deforestation and Reforestation, African Indicators Project, WorldResources Institute, March 1991.

135

Table A-12. Droughts (Significant rainfallshortage at the end of period. D)

Country 1979/80 1984/85 1988/90

Angola - - -Benin -

Botswana - DBurkina Faso - DBurundi - DCameroonCape Verde - DCAR - DChad - DCongo -

Cote d'lvoire -

Eq. Guinea -

Ethiopia D D DGabon -

Gambia, The - DGhana - DGuinea -

Guinea-Bissau -

Kenya - DLesotho - - -

Liberia - - -

Madagascar - - -

Malawi D - -

Mali - D -

Mauritania - D -

Mauritius -

Mozambique -

Namibia -

Niger - D DNigeria -

Rwanda - D

Sao Tome & Principe -

Senegal D DSierra Leone -

Somalia -

Sudan - D DSwaziland -

Tanzania - D

Togo - - -

Uganda -

Zaire -

Zambia - DZimbabwe - D

Source: African Development Indicators, 1992, UNDP/World Bank, 1992.

136

Tabk A-13. Soil Erosion in Slekaed Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1970-86

Amount ofAmount of Erosion

Affected Area as Erosion (metric tonsLocation Percentage of (metric tons per hectare Year of

Country (and extent) National Area per year) per year) Estmate

Burkina Faso Central plateau NA NA 5-35 1970s

Ethiopia a. Total Cropland (12 million ha) 10 500 million 42 1966

b. Central highland plateau(47 million ha) 43 1.6 miDion 0.03 1970s

Kenya Njemps Flats NA NA 138 mid-1980s

Tugan Plateau NA NA 72 mid-1980s

Lesotho Grazing and croplands (2.7 million ha) 88 18.5 million 7 NA

Madagascar a. Mostly cropland (45.9 milion ha) 79 NA 25-250 1970s

b. High central plateau NA 12-40 milion 25-250 1980s

Niger Smal watershed (11,700 ha) 0.01 468,000 40 NA

Nigeria a. Imo State (900,000 ha) 1 13 million 14.4 1974

b. Jos Plateau NA 6 million NA 1975

c. Anemora NA 10-15 milion NA 1975

Zimbabwe Area with moderate to severc erosion 0.8 15 million 50 1979(304,000 ha)

NA indicates not available.

Source: World Resources Institutc and the International Institute for the Environment and Conservation.

-4

Tablk A-14. Extent of Soil Degradation in Major Regions of the World, Early 1980s

Productive Dryland TypesTotal

Productive Drylands Rangelands Rainfed Croplands Irrigated Lands

Area Area Area Area(million Percent (miUion Percent (million Percent (million Percent

hectares) Degraded hectares) Degraded hectares) Degraded hectares) Degraded

Total 3,287 87 2,586 62 570 60 131 30

Sudano-Sahelian Africa 473 88 380 90 90 80 3 30Southern Africa 304 80 250 80 52 80 2 30Mediterranean Africa 101 83 80 85 20 75 1 40Western Asia 142 82 116 85 18 85 8 40Southern Asia 359 70 150 85 150 70 59 35USSR in Asia 298 55 250 60 40 30 8 25China and Mongolia 315 69 300 70 5 60 10 30Australia 491 23 450 22 39 30 2 19Mediterranean Europe 76 39 30 30 40 32 6 25South America and Mexico 293 71 250 72 31 77 12 33North America 405 40 300 42 85 39 20 20

Source: United Nations Environment Programme. The term used is 'desertification", which has been substituted here with the term degradationwhich is morc accurate.

Table A-IS - Evalation of African Agricultural Research Institutions ffancing average per year (l990))

NadnneAg kcuLL Dev. of NaL Agrkcu CoewUld.Ras , SYS./bnat Resd Maq Pi. Fund Mic/

(SARMARI) (NARNP) Total E£a.alflnmq Jh gRadvd

County Acnmy EvL ,a NAne P1w, 1nA. CoepL Non bi ArMUon Donor

Resi-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CffitS RqtonBwukia Fao INERAJIRBET 2 X X 7.57 5.66 WBEFRCrpe Verde INTA I X X 2.27 1.61 PORGambia DAR/MOA 2 X X 1.a ft. USGuinea-EBiau DEPA/MOA I X X na 1.04 PORMAEi ER/INRZF 2 X X 6.01 3.55 WB/US/NLFRMauriania CNRADA I X X 0.49 0.29 FRNiger INRAN 2 X X a.s La. WB/FRSaaegal ISRA 3 X X 7.05 2.26 WB/US/FRTchad BRA/IRCT/LRVZ I X X 7.10 6.19 FR

SlDC RegiomAngols INIA I X X 4.335 a PRO/NORDICBotwana DRA/MOA 2 X X 5.S49 n. US/CA/FAO/SIDA/FR/UXlsotho ARD/MOA I X X 6.043 aL. US/UCAManwi DRA/MOA 2 X X 4.902 .a. WB/US/UX/CAMozambique INIA I X X D.a n.a POR/NORDIC/CANamibs, DAR/MOA I X X aIa n.a FRG/USSwazijami ARD/MOA 1 X X 2.472 n.a US/UIUCA

Tqnzania DART/MOA 2 X X 20.417 u.s WB/UCK/FRG/NORDC/CA/ITZmbia DAR/MOA 2 X X 3.576 La WEIUK/US/BEELCA

Zimbabwe DRSS/ARC 3 X X 17.448 n.a WB/US/UK/NORDIC/CA

WCI Region

Benia DRA/MOA I X X 2.383 1.906 FRCamerooa IRA/IRZ 2 X X 15.069 7.6S5 WB/US/FR/UK/PRGC. Afr. Rep. DRA I X X n1a a.s FRCongo DGRST I X X 2.494 1.546 FRJUNDP/EDFC6te d lvoire IDESSA/IDEFOR 3 X X 28.330 11.615 FREquaL Guinea None Known I X X n.a n.a 7Gabon DRA I X X 2.494 n.a FRGheae CSIR/NARC 3 X X 3.344 0.334 WB/US/UK/CAGuinea INRA/MOA 1 X X 5.605 n.a FR/IFAD/EDFluria CARI I X X 5.247 2.046 US

Nigeria- NARC 3 X X 92.393 IL& WBSierra-Leone IARfNARCC I X 0.946 0.176 UKSo Toae Pr. None Known I X X 0.164 La 7Togo DRA/MOA I X X 6.174 3.25 FRZaire INERA 2 X X 3.820 na WB/US/UNDP

E.A. Rlghklnd.IGADD Region

Bu-uidi ISABU 2 X X 4.381 n.a WBi/BEUUS

Djibouti Nona Known I X X n.a a.a FREihiopis LAR 3 X X 11.323 n.a WBKenya KARIKEFRI 3 X X 28.397 Ma WB/US/UKXEClNUrR/CARwanda ISAR 2 X X 2.004 1.a WBIBELSomalia ARI/MOA I X X X 0.322 u.s WBSudan DARIMOA 2 X X 13.683 a.a WBUganda DAR/MOA 2 X X n.a n.a WB/US

Indian OceanIsLandsComoros None Known I X X a a FRMadagacr FOFIFA 3 X X 7.318 n.a WB/US/FRMauritiua FARC/MOA 4 X X 5.546 n.a 7Seychelkm DCR/MOA 2 X X n.a n.a 7

a. Evaluation Ratings: 5 (Axia Stndard)

4 (Above Average)

3 (Averge ninimal acceptable sandard)

2 (Below Average)

I (Poor).

139

Tabl A-15 (oXdU*d)

b. Now :No Mmr PlanPlAn : Maur Plan plannin in progeas

iL : Manor Plan initated nd review completedCompl.: Muter Plan completed.

c. Preeent fnancing (even without master plan). Fuicial data for the CILSS region is data actual for 1990 taken from the Sahel Frmework forAction (FFA), December 1991. Finuncial data for the other regions is average for 19S0-85 taken from ISNAR Working Paper NO. 33:Organization and Managemenit of Agicultunl ReaeArch in Sub-Saharn Africa - Recent Experience and Future Dircmtion, September 1990.

eNanubia and Zimbabwe: Agriculturl erviccs for commercial famrer are wcU developed.*Nigeria NARS includes IS individual institutes plus 2 agricultural universities.

Somme: SPAAR Secretariat

140

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RECENT WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPERS (continued)

No. 168 Barlow, McNelis, and Derrick, Solar Pumping: An Introduction and Update on the Technology,Performance, Costs and Economics

No. 169 Westoff, Age at Marriage, Age at First Birth, and Fertility in Africa

No. 170 Sung and Troia, Developments in Debt Conversion Programs and Conversion Activities

No. 171 Brown and Nooter, Successful Small-Scale Irrigation in the Sahel

No. 172 Thomas and Shaw, Issues in the Development of Multigrade Schools

No. 173 Byrnes, Water Users Association in World Bank-Assisted Irrigation Projects in Pakistan

No. 174 Constant and Sheldrick, World Nitrogen Survey

No. 175 Le Moigne and others, editors, Country Experiences with Water Resources Management: Economic,Institutional, Technological and Environmental Issues

No. 176 The World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry Fertilizer Working Group, World and Regional Supplyand Demand Balances for Nitrogen, Phosphate, and Potash, 1990/91-1996/97

No. 177 Adams, The World Bank's Treatment of Employment and Labor Market Issues

No. 178 Le Moigne, Barghouti, and Garbus, editors, Developing and Inproving Irrigation and DrainageSystems: Selected Papers from World Bank Seminars

No. 179 Speirs and Olsen, Indigenous Integrated Farming Systems in the Sahel

No. 180 Barghouti, Garbus, and Umali, editors, Trends in Agricultural Diversification: Regional Perspectives

No. 181 Mining Unit, Industry and Energy Division, Strategy for African Mining

No. 182 Land Resources Unit, Asia Technical Department, Strategy for Forest Sector Development in Asia

No. 183 Najera, Liese, and Hanimer, Malaria: New Patterns and Perspectives

No. 184 Crosson and Anderson, Resources and Global Food Prospects: Supply and Demand for Cereals to 2030

No. 185 Frederiksen, Drought Planning and Water Efficiency Implications in Water Resources Management

No. 186 Guislain, Divestiture of State Enterprises: An Overview of the Legal Framework

No. 187 Geyndt, Zhao, and Liu, From Barefoot Doctor to Village Doctor in Rural China

No. 188 Silverman, Public Sector Decentralization: Economic Policy and Sector Investment Programs

No. 189 Frederick, Balancing Water Demands with Supplies: The Role of Management in a World of IncreasingScarcity

No. 190 Macklin, Agricultural Extension in India

No. 191 Frederiksen, Water Resources Institutions: Some Principles and Practices

No. 192 McMillan, Painter, and Scudder, Settlement and Development in the River Blindness Control Zone

No. 193 Braatz, Conserving Biological Diversity: A Strategy for Protected Areas in the Asia-Pacific Region

No. 194 Saint, Universities in Africa: Strategies for Stabilization and Revitalization

No. 195 Ochs and Bishay, Drainage Guidelines

No. 196 Mabogunje, Perspective on Urban Land and Land Management Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa

No. 197 Zymelman, Assessing Engineering Education in Sub-Saharan Africa

No. 198 Teerink and Nakashima, Water Allocation, Rights, and Pricing: Examples from Japan and the UnitedStates

No. 199 Hussi, Murphy, Lindberg, and Brenneman, The Development of Cooperatives and Other RuralOrganizations: 7he Role of the World Bank

No. 200 McMillan, Nana, and Savadogo, Settlement and Development in the River Blindness Control Zone:Case Study Burkina Faso

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No. 202 Vergara, ne Materials Revolution: What Does It Mean for Developing Asia?

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