World Bank Document...RABIC VERSION Document of the World Bank Unofficial translation of the...

67
Report No. 25175-EGT ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT COST ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION Sector Note June 29, 2002 Rural Development, Water and Environment Department Middle East and North Africa Region The World Bank RABIC VERSION Document of the World Bank Unofficial translation of the authentic English version Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

Transcript of World Bank Document...RABIC VERSION Document of the World Bank Unofficial translation of the...

  • Report No. 25175-EGT

    ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPTCOST ASSESSMENTOF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

    Sector Note

    June 29, 2002

    Rural Development, Water and Environment DepartmentMiddle East and North Africa RegionThe World Bank

    RABIC VERSION

    Document of the World Bank

    Unofficial translation of the authentic English version

    Pub

    lic D

    iscl

    osur

    e A

    utho

    rized

    Pub

    lic D

    iscl

    osur

    e A

    utho

    rized

    Pub

    lic D

    iscl

    osur

    e A

    utho

    rized

    Pub

    lic D

    iscl

    osur

    e A

    utho

    rized

    Pub

    lic D

    iscl

    osur

    e A

    utho

    rized

    Pub

    lic D

    iscl

    osur

    e A

    utho

    rized

    Pub

    lic D

    iscl

    osur

    e A

    utho

    rized

    Pub

    lic D

    iscl

    osur

    e A

    utho

    rized

  • Currency Equivalents(Exchange rate effective June 13, 2002)

    Currency Unit = Egyptian pound (LE)

    US$1.00 =4.61 LE

    Fi~scal Year,July 1 - June 30

    Vice-President: Jean-Louis Sarbib

    Country Director: Mahmood Ayub

    Sector Director: Letitia A. Obeng

    Sector Manager: Salah Darghouth

    Task Team Leader: Maria Sarraf

  • vi

    vii M

    Im A

    .9. .

    Vlll8~~~~~~~~~~ .*

    8 (.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~131

    y iAl )oSl a .W~~~~~~~~~~.IIj

    YYl9aW zl*

    r t 1 aJ>I .~~~~~~~~~~~i

  • Yo i -^M i 's

    to .1

    Yo ;L-AA 2--i AI

    IrAY~1 5 4 4d1, .W~~~~I4k~;LIDL 11rA AAI nul AI

    Ii rjtnII S.3_ ;.-rAU3I DALY :nli. (s) .

    r 'Aa J-041 uw "s J.'W

    r - 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~lUW , -1_Ol (-Asv ) J_P

    \ A ;;J,11 z1 4 .,, 1 Ail511 41 01 ~~~~~~~(J) W

    yy~ ~ ~ ~~~~u ,^,> :IS 1 1 .Lu )

    vr *1)E1, 1 .i j ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(J) JPJ-1-i

  • A.S.Al St;t )-A 4. JotAl (-A) Lv'1

    (A7' ' etlv it )

  • t i : 1i Y t Cj t jV j.[ ) , t i E ,t S ..si .

    I t ̂ t ~~~~~ir t ig't 1

    CL~~~~L

    LbA Lb -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~c

    G L c '-Zv~~~~~~bC

  • ' e, 1L. 4Lh- J.L% 0)A ~4l JI JlAl j1ARzMI u6 L~ di

    41AI -6 .41 e lM AJ1 h 1 > 1& 4- 4s ji1 =

    . %31 -i1S Ul .%i,A IA W &is

    s~~~~~~~ _5 >9 ;caI W 1ja. n.Y 1!

    >za~~~- 3! i &1_.3 01 .-435l &W vi SU, VR -Ale-

    eso S s g A;jsLi si L," Lc -) %),Y., VJY t1 2 ;i I

    s>ll~~~UW qti .4..1W I CJI J %>}-,wY - 55 ,jYI aA5 JjillI Jila LIJIg

  • t '

    ; tg uCS~'

    _ C t E Cs~~~~~~~~~.~~

    k '-N r E'

    }~~~4} L .% -.

    iY *$ C

  • *~~~~~~i

    s5 44lAi . ŽLaS 3 -I Y *v l - I 'I I A1 2 JJi sL LO.A A

    ; ;'4Q5JIj- 4)11 JL4lnl _ aLAII La dj1 %Y* L) AJL:_ p 49!.1 c?iy-41S

    j'aU".V aiuWWIcj96~'C.-y4YiJ kaa.,.l "'i bLJyl S- LK.L;S A *

    C.iA A,Lzv sils s_9w ai l jl &. (mEA) s L.2i

    -i~ll Ai a4w 446 l 1.

    o~~~LLJ _C**- A4i m;AW1">4-(2 i sl 6: ).;;Y

    viii

  • ,wi A*l ~~ U? aL- " IJJ j ~S 41~I A-j - 1 ; 43AAll z LB- .NJI 'I ° A. a

    IA ~- lil L)h= UZZ41 tihI tA JJA.~)l2JII~4UlJ~I~

    a ,ll DIJ91I ti1S ~J@lh LBSl j59 i,S li I )@ i)it t .s _ j1 1 . l t

    .(,LLyI LA1l.U1 * - 4.1W Ail4UzL

    j -IX ' Co e tz

    '1L JoY a; S l a a.u.) I 4,1j .,

    AsLa~~~ll ALA 1 ,.jI ,A ; .a,L a. ll-9j7

    _< *m_~ tA , 4"I C,a tl &4%I,i-r,Y 45jly L. ; ALAl s9 ,;il 1j,;4 ti5 , -_giF US .

  • W t-J-J ^ll A4 (0) JSl

    C;A ; OA jAA

    r ~ ~ ~. -_,, ,, __ -~ - .*.

    .. __.,__.__.___. ___._..._.__l _ _______ _ __ -. _ -__.__- O %

    _ Eu M

    I---~~~ - - __- r- /

    h_~~ ~ ~~~ _ I . _ - .. %

    xx~~~~~~a

  • -J=1>

  • .4~Ma1 bUII bj A2A4y3l

    4jI* s~ly~ ~1tlM'1 S S ~ L1 iS l jS J .ailI (A''di~~~~~~~~~~~~ ciiulv 2.& vu o) s W

    .A4A ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ i:R *-wy ciL. -Lul u

    ~~~.) AUI3. 4-:4i, t;t.J4 o z, ai 51 aL- - --Tl IjAll -" u

    2- 2LuL I t1 u._ :2s 1 9 *E1 W

    C2w 4SJ)tdIJ ~ ;Jtu.IJf t.-.1_9L UI L~ Ij UL . I A ) Se*1=4 jtb3 da - I WI (J dA4 Jt i:, 9iYI g J&*1 lJ (..JIYI 4;hl1.tA S,c.-

    na,!;14B i I C iAl )1X 5j & I ll

    ) ;151S1 , oMA t ~~~~UZ W. Lt;u GiJu .oiM -e d

    -< (E,a]1 j:;I~It *4 StlI Cj (YLJ L>a -lI) &yli .Att1 W as

    - -- Ut . fl.! (jl !S1) .1s (z8Y~~~I n 1 SeIXl*av31

  • Sap

    i! ( @} 11)~~~~J aL;. aaLw,> -. -l j)|-)^i ,,,

    -'A~-al a _._ ^ B ! L w CJl a& j4m ku5A_q 4Lj 4-t_) ecj aa . t,A L 4J-14 17 S .t

    SU al a.0L

    aLIl-JV > j-,

    y 4MJi2I ,.4J,

    Clill 2+%,J cil a ,,4sys1 a oyl 15; aL;r DS5 41_). )4QS6tl>0'awtl 4.LLLJM 4l 'i'" -LlY -._ a~ JIH1 .t b4f AtUs3l a,

    SM av{-^ll J.laill 51c 9 Ijwn i9=>oUI

  • JJ918 P.)o DD! M ?.l Ly > s -WIS

    .Jjuijl JLiW ciihi kAU1

    ,Uv

  • ~~~~.1

    2)A ~A1 j J)Mai" ~.j chaaiI -JL. -,-, tjSuIla~~jl ~ -

    ewl *i-

    I I1-j %3 S. a A 4i

    a ,J1JalAf ( 1L4 MJ~11 ,L, L . Aiivl 4).4=1t r A ~~~~a>,la la t. 1 0 w JAafl JL 6sL uA YF s5;JU i1 1> 41.z u1; -s11 a + Y. O oAla £ .N1~~~~~~~4 LIJ L:)J sa ut:s1> Lt 4s4 Y-0 aG,l MI^ ° z

    M W GaSill4 .. LS..lil A. tId Op Yk Y; _.U Y Aa ,i5

    e* 53;ijp441a-JIJl qjl d.

    LA5, 3bS1j814 Lt)5 laml s a=jjj~ pS.ai LA

  • _; . LL~ t* . V$tW< iil

    S b > t i, i t S E *E C W t, W S t S. E C

    -( I-R rf -~'S 'Ct * i z ~ Pr . 'j F o.- t , s

    t.~~~~~~~~~g L, _, p t k _ . ,e'Qv% C '

  • SIjA -p 9 u1A>a)S jai )jA .e jY lal C)4 axl a 4i ta-L s

    4.C. A -:;aI Uj£ a,llt,yJ I.a1 Siu 41 4:JYi j- a UE AA U"l

    LJoJ L,, METAP -J 1111 kar L i" Ji,:? WI> jvd I1Aj ' y Y1:d') 4ji 4i )1; s2Jdil'l s-il I *.1. .41 CJljli )A1 BII 44l 4.1 AIS| elaial

    _g-~ e>t3rL u j - -- aj -l .4 az . WL61 *U.14 -1fC>4jl _)A LV6 4.11 UZi

    .lALj I:toj1 I:JljljoL-'- _ 4 '.. =tl O L~l l.

    "_.L"Zal.C LaX ,4ul S401 t:l .;)Q; .s 1 I,y

    Awu cfs ,_OmGl 4g it',l .9L )=) tA j.JI?JI _1.a 4,F Y_ L itlL

    A~~~~Aa. JL5 (,F

  • JLacMj ll#L.~aL~tJ y~ e3 4'AJ$sJI Aai4l WA 1 ('I aJMla 3)o

    Wy1IM e ojltl St j1 a S. I U t1 4.D dl u1_ Si4aL

    :C,jl4- J^s' '1a .. 1EaM j TAPI e% A Lmj :L-Z- Cit-ji slojy

    zSl >19l t3 a1 St1&. u- ev.' ") 1_1 Ja! Mi JA_W L _pA _

  • AAj lS IJ jlJ l 1A _E

    ~ 1A*L3 1l 2 Sjfl~Y~U 4JU.. tz1 jjA-Lz 4JsLr ~a5.%tJLJ k w,

    4pI~A1I ~JU A 4$ W V M U j4, ci1• y N 0 .Y

    ja k-=~*JxN Iw; -0.31> n ,4

    ,,1 > ;zA199^@l 1i a^-._^ll x.:ll(;Al-"LAW13 O J tk*t

    ~~A jal~l tkl^,i3 .: .AI

  • UA ?Ul 4 4tL JL 4b 2Ab Sl a"- y A

    alJy (#11 ysill~~~~~~~~~~:.c

  • iv~~~U.)AW 4441 Vj

    '#IJl .iii

    AoLli3l . iv

    .4t ja1 I.vi

    u;~~~~J JS3 i,y3i o1 4 E8.

    V /_.l.

  • cjj"L 4,1 &a ll ALAI ", -"ct 4AJj 15 X.+, a (DALY) AlLYI

    ~~~~~~~~~JL ) J :. JAW _!S4 C_49I .D;>|a- |oJI nJ l4 4DALY 2a e, 1j. &A.1 "J; .1., zaAl +~~~~~D LY_I di 4h tA_. >1 S zb Lis aci o 'lo

    zjx a t8g o ! aLOY 4i sa-ys CiLz '3AI apl ol9 ;oW AsDLYi:1 *i;;19t1 A A>;>o LJAu A414

    J-P1~ _xA *> j~~'io)

    LA S 3 g L.§.U 4a, elJ(L J Ql : 1 I 16 .:j 9 ill Ail

    alAaL &DALY A_Sl)L 4jFp aiLjI a]UMI _|i 41 JYI 2li IA A^

    A

  • ;iiii b4A 44 1I- S 1 FJ biJJl 4J LJ JAIl Al Ji1

    aJ. yJIaaI Iic iJ-mU -4,1 '+o $1l DAL a i '1 Y

    4Au' 11 -A-I '-A) q441 4-4,W DALY c l, 1:Jilull 1 44 .gj1 -#lyaalI e JW1, jtwafl 1 24~~ltfi1 E- l s

  • eia iaI Aru-. lq S_IAA1I DALY A o J L~1 jU Y) AY~ ~IU~l ~ ~U ~j.4.SJ~LJIDALY -&.aa (-A I S

    0 'i g.4 SI_ oAIi DALY L l L 4_1I AiISflA0 1l46ij A 1 j~I ijal _JM 4aw La U A.2+-.U%A tx I M. S1 AU I lall

    9Y473~1I jjA~JlI 6jghA1I (-2 9 A '9 u) i! 6~YL 4 >. t r .

    ,.A 4il tijl23 jju l -5|= O-S, ;Jn" t Di ) -IAM s Yo At@i__

    .% V5 *A UV4 _)9ha A..C tZ

    A,I jqu a,l LI;L YI Ay .e >i;L iJ>1 s °.

    -~-qJ,OW 4 . jj. tj!

  • - 3

    2- . 4 .jijA4 n S i C t X G 3 0.4

    - l 5%I :12 L '1

    3 4.1Jd 1JAw Xt jjt.Xm 3 $,4 .8'

  • . .S

    ~~~~~~_91i:i 1 ? L ^ .1 91 4" OA 44~ 1 1S t.

    - - -. 1 * ;u1 ,- f , % ,fl &iIS *..1( ?ti, tAi I p .w .j L.

    sM eI2t .1

    Cji~~ ~4~3Ut~~ .4h~aiU Ujj JA J~~~ 1~Aj ~~ 4*~L~~1l ,_lj

    *~~~~~~~~~~4,h oA1 A1 LA1l u1 C ... S

    . W1 *t~~U

    :eSk ts_ll wi*IYItJ oMI=etY.

  • VA AAII _= AAAl *

    .11 >4611 jU1 *- -fr %I f5,A j ,o Cjlj,.jal

    ci. )i Asi JS cp (k.>.Ylyl Lp %,1,4 * 41 444 c.1.au L&O191t

    Y^ ; Ji _,G (1 pslaLa-PU il c.-jl 1 J

    L.S -31 44-41 4 4.a AIA Cil5A 4 1j oLl v-- n.

    4~~y~4 ~ iJ~S~ ~UJJA LiJ (J) Jul~;Li^X LsiLd.l UW I"JI I4 Ls3= s -

    l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~l

    %t,A

    % , ,L .E>

    %5.*~~~~~ ~ I,1. . La !2

  • - ----- - H-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1

    i, I ;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~'I.

    X~~~- r I 1 -|1 I I ~ ~~I ! ! I

    . .- . - 4 .4 * . ._ -_ 4 -4

    : D : * 0 0 * : ° : y

  • 3S _ . S 4is h k Ji,, ) y, , . .)

    441 c -r .^p. +-II U l aJa;, a,xI a . GWr1,l C. %Y.)i ;L ,l as8p 4Ab,2 jji. .J:_A ll U& ;jcW b8t+Jlj IkeJl IL1AI 1l

    . 'DALY a o . . . ' N B. i,4 i:J L "liwl ;I

    'S.. &, aqi DALY \ ,..* ' s L Jt$ c -0.

  • 4 - 8 z1> t; l ,1 11

    as e;Luvi Vh- JjliJm l 1s1 :4bl J-4 a...;; kAq-j cil-AA4pm j)J i .Wov :j/eJil ;VdWI cl- I U-9Ll Ail Jl &I LA

  • ~~~~~~1U4-lU. i, J) J5U a KSl6 Ck;Y* (Flg j ,J5Lja (A1ML -iA .aw^l co PMi s -. l Al _t> l J5) . > 1 l

    ';-JI DALY M i°** Cti L UI J Jul 4DALY 6 J L;U JuI ,a L1 21, 4 % Ljl_ L

    4La-la ; 42i t1 alaa-*I sam L JI cLaMtjll ) -2 .(IYal

    4:lt:HLJA

  • > &i1 o) @ .lill 9191 u5 9I 2-1m.!j cjz.h Lla AIJ

  • CJ(I C -- C ;1 1 J..) l AZ tZJ5 1 24 1 S %*n_JI- 9s

    .(-A ,,a4 &J-5 %I, AJ-._iL zo: o @ .U1 1 uL- laL1 '8>.! -%-.it ( J9k' ?J) %5, wp ,s, 4 ,

    CAM& O- L 'ji A4 ilS 4;4 2 .,3 J(t) S-py

    ___________ ______ % j1y,U A~46-_414 :4_01 (-A) J * l9

    Jj-& U >105 b40 44 U;M1 1 6L"I Wi ali A- a, .rli

    ______ __j __ ______>oA A j U I p jtYu l qi3I ciLJAI "i.11

    e~~-z Lr ts4UJ s-A Le ;eA all.' .,cs1 le

    (,owd et al ;~ .) 41; A4L ,j :j U W & *>*

    -Av, JJIJ 10 %, f _, M

    -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~F J~

    .* 1 H MJ9 D MM : jto.rJ?. ( ,lJ'iaz J !j

  • , .1 b i ir

    jI Axa~_jj;*)~l ;A l IV .l0i L1I ~ ~ ) 1 l a

    41wi L1> iS a .L11 -U-All J;

    Fb jf ~ -m- Ldr1

  • 1 -aN1 Jp (YX .) Huybers and Bemnett tAljJ 24 j1 Ld) *iaYW A& l e1

    ., * ,r1 4LalI JaI jjAr- i , 41iA jy 4*IS o, 3 wL,n f . JIa

    -(1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ( v i9

    ;k...4^5,,i S6 ;LV6l ;kjl-4 2imi 44 'A..^ si-AL 11 2ji,9 2u;.rJltj< *pu1 Wtul > sl &A461 k*0-01 21441i

    ~~ -5 44LL.11 6 4.JJSy

    *z>. yL

  • c~~~Loa ot531u es Jul LW- 1 -4- L4 ia1> WNl cjljv1 ; ;V";, I1

    t^ C a, ol4 11 sI A ki. i cl A4j J LI I*_a-l A;IW .. t.a C L )

    44~~~~ k, ji..1 la1 cji.

    t j A 951 ;;1 l ot .:U - - x.

    t ojMl jt+ 'I e" _1 tZlsl CJU tAD uJIW YA Wvyt~~~~~A4 1*-Al91 .ylb1 M 9Al CASso

    < y ,~~ ISUh AIJ 4. ~)L &YL oIv ( s1e

    u1 jLUI ,, A 1 iw1 *A L-b 'u-o u. &L Lw 4sS +

    zP9l~~' AII --Jl Gj AXYlXj -j 1-- VJ; A11 L,-: tw-)Less.

    &A LtS Vi L~-L _A. C.>

    .Y.. Balvarena et al. A-; 1 ii,f

  • ~~~~~'o .i (?) r -

    M f LA~~~~~~~~~~~i~J&~I hUL s~~~~~~~~ -

    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ S !j 3 ls il; -

    C~~~ t JS1 ¢LJ s^ a)It .i~ bJ)e l Zi ~

    .:-u i-. .r

    L~L.(J ) J L! Ar k+L ¢ j Ij(slCA-.NZ~~~ ~ ~ Ul-e L^;Jwi vil L,.U -)

    .v) z e tS1 W p_

    %) Y (Y Y 4J-4a ~ ~ ~ ~ ) =

    vr~~~H>=

  • wtn8i a %° r s| L. * Yitq A ... M 4i C1 mi

    2~~~i l010CJ~ :Lt %u C.) V4A :_oa1 5 9 ,S

    .) _OZJ (44JAUI _#J kZI3 CJ3 b i ~p 3A:Lii c{Aijli ijb A 4l A .1jill l I&JIt- ,i, jv^E A-s, -).1 A-)J-lX I:i O) l WI&

    Wt) a A gJjlil Jly "It p ,1yS _"v_I A. ;(

    &A (J;^y (-A) J:1 oi X 43/I i 1

    A 2 X J i1SI J,I3 _ 9 e Ui L 4 i J C I_

    P-U % L "i ;,A,l - A," W4.A () Jl A3)4 (WA) JLs11

    14LLJ~~.t11A5Lt_ilJ i &I JIi f ljl* .uj3 a-- e @@ S~~~~_ _ -- A

    EULs sU JjliJ i

    U

  • Acr.. .. L J I Adi S £

    -A 4~S 4J1A3~ ~11sII.l , a J~ A~A~fl 1> U 8

    £L es!! ..Jy ;J l : YW3 ~Ji i3 j s;,51, Au.Sj.jl SAZi Y * I ,l

    (53) s All Jill 04 #1 .;T Z aWI I a nA A l k1I L .4.; IS LI >Y I

    _Ii U _" a - -Lj = LJ

    (G) s( 1 !.Z) AJ1 > _) l !1Ai s -t ; 1

    ^c av %8. St;ij i ~-" Ic .-- ^i1!SS

    Lu ~~~~~~~~.11y

  • ow.^ill SJ-0 I4w, 24j LJ t 41 wl t44 ) S'

    ail51 e14J1 lll*;2:' > K

    ~~JI LJ.l tE tl # M,6\ C:S! -1 ewl t+ l 3W6 aL uLS

    DALY c:klj) -L tj a 1S. 4i A&- o-.

    L~- mi v CL&(al O& l IM

    wm>~ _- -1 lun 19 b,,1 Ci," 0xidilA SAVCE lisf (Ynn)1ss1 buyj-iall ~ ~ ~ li Ljp L.1 - -1 .il _i15:

    o-% i:Jr= ti 46M D6uA )A.+jJ 5(;)

    s#1~~~ ~~~~ 11 9 oL1J5pvl-Mitfl il S4, )

    JIAA. JUI LT tz, C1 >-11 k=wYiiI -o eg4l

    v %8* JZWfi tilll biX .s -s .bu U7 WI &4

  • i s *)~~~~41 % + ° ssI ga. l ̂ yl xWL w11 A n .

    JjAJI a) iAiJ/L@bIi 2-L13 2AOL-SI a2l A t .AA LYik1 e

    j . .WS :..U4 ,$ d)a (6) jj-

    _.A- _ A- A1 4 oli)J

    - )LaJI bw 4 i S 1j I W A . _ -L -1 U _

    ~~U~3I ~ 4. ~y. -&. jC.. jUi ,--Li-J ?,- t+.It CiI6 4.LA L>. L•1k) 1 1 2-al °1 LWI 4. t . ,1 Va tA l1 o L U

    (L,I Wi al 4 siI 4,3L LA k 2i1Jl A a ,l ag Za.AVI A 14

    *'h i ag(1 iW) q,FIIYI 112 aL) %.,ty Cjo Ji Y ULC " ;LT )k

  • @~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2)4 S Xl oJ ljSljttl J ) s (.,.l 4 -bo

    , .,, ,~~A" 2 IZ sL _$ C) ! -I ! S1U1

    4:ji a;Q2s 4-1l1 L:) l. (C-vial ,) * *)&ei. jjp i3 LIZ

    L-J A ui aldp L.6 (,L;2M.C! % - ZL.U CLUIill Li_), eAL.9(0

    V f.U DN W a -(Y I 4 LDwenl et al.) ;,Atll Vi Ojj!A 4_9 @tq ja CJ.01 I 9 4 ,n;,,Aal kAi L.,;i A4>L c4I:l SJa sl! c .

    CJA %O L_ ejJ .i36431 8: L-8 la -Au*l w- i wl -LjM 1) WD.42 1 W il CJW &4 % , ,1j 99 Allall dMl

  • Ij~ -

    Lw ;~ ia.0;

    % *,8 A ysSt l;'#Y1J -sI .li* -

    _%.l L.rL ( @,W US .) IlJ ir ' -A

    -~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~l,l -l j .. i L..

  • cj~ul 6 J= k-41wl julj,_ .- ^it ;uwlA al :4.s it) f

    li.,Jl~~~~ WsC L AjLja iLb&At.2

    UA ca*_1 j1% U& (CA "i 'I s.W t

    ;kI-W Al ;-I -( 6.W AIIV l" 'U LS

    i:iLl > oLoU1 tz14 .ui1 1 u1 .tl 1:W -jf.

    tiSl LX 1e # >I o1 S ^ 1 oLlirt -a L11 oLS1 :41"i ) Alo--t IN"

  • t+~~~4 k.i,U v,.2 0_4- kdAr4 4:.:U5'st< -419 U.1°bt~A~ CJA~ ~J&.II .A 1-3 UKI _Pa -A IAAA-I 4 l~ a.! 4

    *~t.144 c...ALA 44li a>4U (LRua-l JA JS .;aA Ail"Iaj .JUAi:u VA.a1 4 j11ui jlAI CA %,Y VIIJ% , 4A1.RI J1 Ais M ;.Cu1~~~L C) %'"LSA j- LIS l4t UIS Cd ) -U--V1 ALLI

    A-w1j.0~~~ ~ ~ ~~ a,S a

    A, v- l, eJ51 CJ swlj Wk5JI I olL S 51J4 I5 sa- 4,,3 o2a- jlu lba i

  • ~ 9L~I 4~js9 jlj.iO1II &ILL C). ~ Oj LLOn

    A~A .T

    4 -- ;n1sl co,tiJ elx x 9 1.9 - 1 Ihoo

    A AA

    - -- tl it 4A+ *w -

    '4i9 J-SI ij_ .^% 1 lCs 'CI4,i,;_ *fil ,IUA )I1 0 .

    ';iLL:.

    Llll) AAtb 4.16t9 L" 4}>1

    al,gli.- -^ tl W!S1 ! J ,l 7 AJUL_ISI Lj J, _1 n

    @p AW1; ".UASAI WLI Cs i jj ,:Al 4a IIU ori :1.1 LW^ &s(i- ;~~~~~~~~4 *:OSIJ A-1 .T,-411 i.IWI AW tl.!S 4a*l,,-

    A~~~~~t3.lo) zL .x j

    s~~~~~~~~~- 1IA C.;1 1.. I LA. 416 oFUl 4-ll 1 921

  • L.A ~(,_ 1 '(5Esrey et al.) %k-o . )l b& CJ. 1. A.iS 4jJAUIA

    A&S 5.1 atasY t411.4 WLJ CnUll &41 % o/.>r t S1i p a _ _. _ .tl 2.sillt y1l 2ilsi(i1' :1 i t )) 1.tn..i . k44 j

    .~~A L.A ~~~UM".JI A A W6J~AII (S4 C AAY tAI

    &J..l ~.AS11 qslX 4 1y L. ;rJa *.ul (,~~I~s.S. CiA l ~5l %, ,J8Ab ;i/~l

    , : , ~, .aJY.M 4j1,,1 LZ, .,9.- YJ J- n)_M& ILA (5y

    Wa,,y L" 6cil.A.W1 D ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .AcLIA

    l u3 J4JiUl ai .AJW l V .L

    .F-%o. A4m ISIi .i 4J. 4j-JI~ CiA -LA j~ L. I_U J ~~U4 1

    1 ."--A511 C; if^9@ L.A sn*.ICI s I d Crl GCi1 L.Ab A Al/f

    4p .W-l AW 9 -a-LA ci jS>blalaAl pje9 v L L

    la-) A4k;il C-A-1 t5l CJeL'A aL-&M ^ WZ JI 4 )aILA !.-,R.4

    -;-1 aEl vl) y sa , S' sC o IJcY 4i21 vA XU Y v51Aa * 1 ,IZ

    iSlC~~~~~-d -AL1 Lf-)J 242_^t &-JI A-U- , sX+ v ; . J

    kj"JI v ULLJ Ai I %° - J-14.1 ,x,Yi - - ^-.I .ia,,_,S

    v~~~j Y v ., al(5 _ 16~%- : Ut Al A J( Dll

    ~~~~ar- Um^! j-9t s L4c ' :- CA ;La) J1l coi sii-

    rr-.

  • 45 >Ac~ A*crnt (Jj_Ij WA1 W #'J ljl 4- (uLA11 4F 4J_1 C)I t_4 IJ A eJI ,a l jyb

    'pJl~ ~AI M ~Jk4 43L c a l Q."l, l , l m4m, qsj A .c

    Jia~~ L diJ J5 %!1lZal i s.;t

    14g 1~ ~(LAAa~YU 4.42 4 :, -0-4

    IJSua LJWb LN ALi4 W _t,tiu)i L.) ;LU 21A I A~&~II:

    Gja-D az j'-I j~4- J, L;' irjw i6 4As, w L s

    ~ly~(Yi. .) Lv I ok) a etjal a . l ^-PW it ;

    td- I(CZ6:,4 -ZL ) LL-1 "Wal; ;aja sla,1-24L~ !J11 Lr& ' 5 °

    ;j3aJ L1 z_-oU L.A3;L LL-, L4 IhA_ Lt'A .>9 Li * --8 a JaL +

    .CJM,.Yl ( :) AW a 1 .,,511 244 4ai ,Fj= I..0.ur

    J_u 24,A-1 4l.151AU (3_gi:Y dl ILAII J..U LVW -(j!gj J-l 1jj) -I* 4

    ju,i UW clIz-oilzJ;tL ii a;)5i^. ,jj ;-1 J51 1 . yj511 ;U J. J I ; 14 X1;4 CA1 >

    > ~~~~J l _,A LX.EsJl$a11.:1-

    > AI.W.l &l ,is J,c.:,Il a.b kA*r- k.":L. 4 lSib .(Y - * LowendWa et al. )

  • 41ay1j ~ll la i,Fi 4cGl LI il -JS! US .1t eL > # 8 .

    J~A 4pAlUaA&4 VA8 4a.LJA1l L:LU Sj~if &J 4~tAi 3uA1

    UAU

    .. 41 JJ! M I Jgo~~~~~~L-- ALAWI LIh 3 191 & 2-1 -.J &LAI i t_JUAI 1

    jG 4t t

    LJI jLIiJI9*i ejc >.i jlcal ui JI -*z 1Y .t0l

    45W *EuWW U i> 1 1 atOll LL-A leX Ell

    CJ~~~~~~UI &1, X -61 U-~-. IVAl Vtl C .)A 2 A*,

  • C -

    fl - t~~~~~~~~~~~~~Sk - S

    '5 i * t , A

    'A. i,Lzt t

  • Tropical North Queensland. Tourism

    ep I ju11 Economics, 6(1)2146. 2000.________________ _ Lowenthal et aL Cairo Air Inprovement

    Project:1999 Source Atribution Study.

    Altaf, M. and J. Deshazo. Household demandfor Desert Research lnstitute. Nevada, USA.inproved solid waste management: A case Fial report May 2001. Preprd forstudy of Guiranwala, Pakistan. World Chemonics Iternational, Washington DC.Development, Vol 24, No. 5, pp 857-868. Lvovsky, K 2001. Health and the Environment.1996. Envonment Strategy Background Paper

    Balvanera, P. G.C. Daily, P.R Ehrlich, T.H. No. 1. World Bank. Washington, D.C.Ricketts, S.-A Bailey, S. Kark, C. en, Lvovsky, KY, G. Hughes, D. Maddison, B. Ostroand H Pereira, Conseving Biodiversity and and D. Pearce, Envionmental Costs offossilEcosystemn Services. Science, 291, 16 March FueLs. Environment Department Working2001. Paper No. 78. The World Bank, Oct 2000.

    Barber, C. and J. Schlveithelm- Trial byfire: O nzton Suppot Progm (OSP) financed byForest fires and foresty policy in DANIDA. Review of Donors Projects

    Indonesia's era of crisis and reform. World hwkmented in Coqerafion with EEM

    Resources Institute, Washin, D.C. (1991-2001),August2001.2000. Ostro B., Estimating the Health Effects of Air

    Belhaj, M., The WTP to reduce air pollution in Pollution: A Method with an Application to

    Rabat-Sale: A contingent valuation experi- Jakarta. Policy research wokig paper, Thement. Department of Economics, University World Bank, Wasbington, D.C., 1994.of G(oteborg, no date. Seyam, Gamal. An Econormc Feasibiity Study

    Blore Iand Nunan F. Living With Waste : Public for Investment Projects in Sharq Elinat,Vahlation of Solid Waste Impacts in Toschka, Egypt 1999-2000. Cairo

    Bangkok University of Birmingham, Unrinty. EgyptJanuary 1996, 58p. Papers in the SmiU,Kir R.Nationl bwden ofdisesinAdmnistration of Development No. 57. Smit Krom Natonalrdof dissiIndia from indoor air pollution.

    Bruner, AG., RE. Gullison, RE. Rice, GAB. da roedings of te National Academy ofFonseca, Effictiveness of Parks n Pr Sciences of the United Staes. June 6,2000.tecting Tropical Biodiversity. Science, 291, Varley, Tarvid, and Chao. A reassessment of the

    125-8,5 Jan.2001. cost-efjyectiveness of water and sanitationEEAAIUNDP. The Environmental Profile of intrventions in progrannesfor controlling

    Egypt. Cairo, Egypt 2002. childhood diarrhea Bulletin of the World

    EEAA/UNDP. The National Environmental Health Organization, 1998, 76(6): 617-631.Action Plan ofEgypt. Cairo, Egypt, 2002. World Bank, Entering the 21st Century - World

    Esrey, J.B. Potash, L. Roberts and C. Schiff, Development Report 1999/2000. OxfordEffects of Improved Water Supply and Sa- University Press (for the World Bank), 2000.

    nitation on Ascariasi, Diarrhea, Dractm- World Bank. Middle East and North Africa

    culaisis, Hookwonn Infection, Schistoso- EnvronmentStrategy, February 1995.

    miasis, and Trachoma, Bulletin of the World World Bank, World Development Indicators,

    Health Organization, 1991. 2001.Georgiu, S., D. Whitbngton, D. Pearce and D. World Bank/WHO. Global Burden of Disease.

    Moran, Economic Values and the Envi- 2001.ronment in the Developing World, EdwardElgar for UNEP, 1997. World Energy Council. The challenge of rural

    Glover, D. and T. Jessup (eds). Indonesia'sr Fires energy paverty in developing countries.

    and Haze. Institute of Southeast Asian Egypt case study. London, UKStudies and Interational Development World Tourism Organization. Compendium of

    Research Centre. Singapore, 1999. Tourism Statistics. Madrid, Spain, 2001 edition

    Hanley, N. and C.L. Spash, Cost-Benefit Analysisand the Environment, Edward Elgar,Reprinted 1994.

    Huybers, T. and J. Bemnett. Impact of theEnvironment on holiday destination choicesofprospective UK tourists: implicationsfor

    rA

  • T~~~~~~~~~~~~~T-e J i a t _ !.r ... . ... (eXAY

    DALY = Disability Adjusted Life Yt3ar Ai. ... .. ... VX

    ail'a jS-k I, or IL1, "6 ) Y}S

    ,x, J_,.bl ,.S '4, L, qv Y ..\0 AO -4L . A cj4) % %i ^,, 14 uY d du, vl I 9, L

    4v -I glj 40/4 - JL 4.e4W , S-W4) JLW :Ah ,a. r.v- 'Jo J6

    JW ph)~~~~a CA A* &6Z Ji ZU )11 'J @=UbW "J UV/a % &4 kojov r,yi i'AY. DALY L.¢ i,A.. Y£t . DALY Nv0o * . DALY 40I;C.A,JJJ 'kiji .0ri

    4.--b -) 4* qi- - .1- .14 ,>A 41-

    tioratU et EL, ECaWrill .t",d agiO.J9 1.v -j a V. . "A S 4 .. ,,.... JvL r., 4.1 1 ,,,+0% t AM P." W 9 i -1Ss*dIL. a,] "i eJ bbj &*,U ak ,LJj ,It yW &Joi Wj * * r vu fV vW "ja 4-i X19 IY

    SpU, ;jS 4UJ -%\ *- .4 1*)4L_ A- JIl - {J J4X A i *JJJ .A LIJ.J -4 .i wia

    4j11s U-a ( _.~ '6U.J 4.: 1A1 W,J 4zz1 4_ 1Ji ': IJ U..4t C.- L-1tD AILJ o- I,

    .VW &O U03 VWJ "

    .~~~~~~~~~~ .r II 1% V,.6, I 1 .t

    i,~ ~ ~~"i v VX6 , t Y,t pIW

    WtJ y t vl pA JAL- e- t, tt(I d" ao4Y.. * *, Swilh L-IJa, 't e" ,

    J U 34ii$ 8 ail, d- hSA cAL- C.Jt osrt oX ;J(wt tttS .I. J) I^1 i££ tt YYY DALY/p t, £A . Y, £. DALY V.Y,E,,,.. DALYIt tI .Ul 1-4'k EJ.-11

    93Mt IL-l *44 o- "pt k ) +P.A vt"t g3t L;ttS > . DALY 14 ,A .bt65U 4J4lt.,.J.

    enYt wb A4s DALY LAt VJs .,tLA I+4 tJ .tA OUsZ ail tsW , eo z 4X %J Uj 5 A,

    2.:J*" Jl XlWJ;>{ 54jj6 .a e.A ) 60'"31J (OL 6A) VJ-d VP-' .,.%6,£

    I | V.) i 5s DALYI* LP61 VA- ,A- | DALY I.- V.,- DAL I& _

  • Vd'Jj j t os. \ j jw so1 utt ov54yl,:o0 5-lp oAD.Y419 5 o,.l,. i i. DALYe., YA,... t,A.. DALY Y .. DAL.YI OA.(LuC4 ,G tJ 4%4 dA Ak Ostro I1 II ) i 1 Caii j 45t4 UJ58 A o- eJi 14,A QUJLt

    AJU-4 aboY -AL V t T)sV 14 /.095o1 U6L Vt t- PMtt - X96 Q JI tp Vj>p 5U.I e &V t>o1 s"- ,;u lwt, ,# otlt ." J: Ll6 (ltl 4 X,5 -5. U41j ol5t#,1 W Ul i.% 4 5 y t t 5 t &. ° vt % DALY -Ai vi.. > b 'AjA. ",r% .,v.% *H= ta-V ° 5jP J at.j U t L y1-J aAb ,l .t DALY (4 34,j, .i o, .

    steY'~~~- v5 e5@ o ' Pt1/0; -*ttj '' CA 3t4 Jttf Qoj't J c4 5 J"3

    1,Y.^ IY. ~ DALY/.6, i,A.. t,A. DALY Yo..... DALY/J7S..

    a" DS c.- l of o A yt ,,J-41J itk,SS (Gotebngrt t-) nBeth 446 UvJt 4,j3i ., 4a Via ,t QUij- b, .j CA ,p %TY,. -.j .lLn cA %v 3 +~1 -*a v .laa(,,,Is

    rn/.(.er) - 4nne *X4- Vw 'd k # 4 , , % t..% Ila re. Vo. e. Y 1,,-e Jjl WTP -L.d tAI .4A?'A.Ijls.t zp

    *~.~A~Aji. ~e.4:w 4.1a4l 2 a I4>i.tLCAW L4

    .(tYI S )I v %r *t ,,fI VSl,% 11 4i r,>

    tilvr and Jt A14 .6S 4jat C-_ OD U e. Jl o vtp .310 94j qj, *Jx a'JJ C- I yo .IV ., .% £5SVI Y5^ t/.f.c £Yo £Yo Yt le .e,...... V-p ,I ji ai * 4LA -3-19 .06- /tN PX /V-% & +I *.)iA-l iV copWt PJ ttIvi 44A ,:W1 N 54LDPs 4"t :P *li Jb cJB JessuP sib 4 S-Aril1-. b 4" ,u.. ):J,; i %) -j ss I %YY,--)-j 4.WL 4r,Y 1,1% iI ar ,rv

    Ulgi, W WI J-JXk) I tJ 5, 6 V wA X.4*X VlW >L# &. siU aL-J A24 (YL

    S'-t 41 JwL '.AU tVs wt .W 4 s +IW 4a %1-- *- 4 '11 (" 6-i U.(2L",j 4,

    ____ *_ __ _ _ _ 6_ _ ,__ _L__ _ _ _ J_ _____II_A_______ V___ _,, J__ _ _ _ Y,Lb %

    .34- UMt 61 #.> SJ4 JN ,> JLI ,~ & -e1(jAJ- Y." d V.. pl HUYr and Bemnen xt .,,1% .,I Y96 ti. ro. P-0/,mz v. U. If8 v,-, .. X-u J"oj lf ~ 44- ;YI _,a il-

    '-A 24- I,a A I.IW..iA 11.4 a0- 1

    41

    j,j.A CTw 1.1 ~Lj CA.C,,2 -Ld J A A b.J.: *2jL

    $444 4. .W6 iA VSLA aA Jf a. 0 4 i I *tA , (4A) 4tgA ;-4- Of AAo * UV& Y ' -1 .(lqii-liiv J.A It-l. AY j^*j aiy, Vs S;3t 14 WS Ajo QJ dvC.-

    ,Y% 1,1% 1, i'A r,YvrV y

    r,l I%. usS UJJJ

    Ob- 4J Y¢--4- gsa04 xtS *- i (DaSJ a;~ v,A) X-J3 WJ'A 0. %Y v h i

    "zD,Jo 'l-D M |;4'vWJI eUa )0 e oIA * c 4"'j 9 >*A%U C.9iYrA ?-C /4/¢X\1 %,' 6y | ;\OY ,, -Y JUJ

    Y p6l v' w a-b WAJs

  • 1.4 ;> %h o-f. 'it dI. 9 y (,i YbLf AV) 1IJJI ,ls o4b-a Al. J I*(Y u* .T v P 1 av 3; x 4lpc JI iJ

    ~~~~^,A /. QtWI wL-i 46a r () JA U >. - _ _ _ _ __ _ I__ _ _ _

    ~~d A1g# vJ.AXb) 3S jWt) ,A %Y~ Jb IL ~d. .__~1J~$n

    -AULD & 4L. W*-s aJ of V M pi. AW and DeShazo ,Jj.(T. -V W.

    yl 41-cl4UD o SIG vL;gl No; SIISIZ 1worBeare ld N mr_L."j 1#,i .,Ylf f .,IA% ir. or% 0l/ esD, . £,o ;,i-5.. .. ..te

    LU e i..( .) JLj vlI 3 a 4 *4 & 4 JY J ug ,, ,&J* WLA .a .MAl-

    ?4- ca.lil ,> A "-Am . ,6#,- eA v $ .:. Yt /o 1i J t J.,J ,, .j -SJ )iM 4 t 49 0 4LJ jM W,'A Q-. L 14 (Loewehal at el) ;W4 I1- VjLs s -" w muD v4*J; v-Ru jm, °hV * 4, A-11j U.^Lj AP&"t Q1J 0

    MA y lol *JtJ ,s1 lJ C.^ - -- - W J # oUs, i 0li 44 Wi 4iJ } 6i.0

    V,,A t 1,L; a4,, 4 0 i- 41 J -. i t "I L- Lt^6 ow" 's Co) " v a N4.,,Jmg .(.> "O,_ * Huypers -ldsie s% iS , *t.W_ |sks >s., -. a%* %A. 3Y j.5 .tev , ,j 6W 14 0 p, ojl

    XWi eVti vi -t S 14\* >et iA 145)uv-04 P XiA ,fi cJL if- Y r -V -* "*U A, 4-i, A ",J" cm,'a i.40 3id - 4L 3-J WA O.A.Q v= J i J^i i t6 (,A

    ai >)v - J." 4-i; -W JiA ji- VJ p6V2 4W Othil W.A4*sW da 14-ig U-A 41-mJ &iA ivi Vto st X-t 1J; I,A ...... r,-i ,1 JAi 41+u - HYbm nd eom ,(U.3, Jl-34i _ol4 S AW 34. m4 oica YL

  • Ub ~1 4coW Aij .lsa AS ,£Q 33 ilUP t3" j I'aA A& V.1JIJ ellaX .-Ob, .IJIJ U~j @u>o I AJ- -Y eI P A9L*, *~ % ,. % 1 YA A "., , A ......... 0a 4 0% lo % * 4, i -). "1 0P/YA I'4,1 AJ W * E &X .a~S ° - * ~4 j d1 ................ ; 9 -i 1J 2J .0 1I21" eY

    J* 'J Xl,, .. Iu l" [A-JAA O i A ?6u (a) Yf -W - ?0JI Li .4S > A~m U6 j$

    I''~~ t^ ;..... - .....____ Jl

    __ .>W7§ vllp 7 4 vubt.^;g r- -________ _-________ w1L pJ 33 j

    v U~~~~~~,s, eW .A 1 44 y "ja tuas oJ*Y - -, b-I0 +a C< A ),Al ... ... ...

    __ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ( * -14 Li v , _________~,

    a6 ,SL i Wi SJ Y/ W u=i , t1 S b411Jjil c.9_4 4.1,< I,^ fi51 J; .; CV. 1V, 1 j% , ..jja - "t.:.U.Aj

    AAAA~~~~ ~ ~ ~ :. .t- Xw Y .th4a . =' _A _I .L _. t "du~ ~ ~ .3' _- -- { + -' .

    _____ _L _ __ _, _ _ ; 1

    ~~~~~~~~~~_ _ _ _ l _ _ _ __ _ _ - - ' 9 y - ; 2 3 h l ,.__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

  • ,.1 jir *-- .. ...r.*, 4) cyl-

    DALY- DisabilityW A4uudI Yew A ... ... ... ( > au

    M'° -j a) %,fr w'rp VIA

    41p3 ~Ii ~1~1 ~I~ ~ I 1.b.) ~ ~&111 .L~1.4~I1 ~L .%l Awu .. - ~.iI ~ A* 1 WTP 4.j.r.'J J1 %M Jj..j.I/M kJj.

    ,.~ (01~ .4,L.4 01~) ~ A." zJ'" ~1*~l/ ahp. * i*M -u ~ _ L)4.* jjjLIAj &0 s

    0*J .7j i 0 l J C10p 10 4 & %. 4 .U 1AJi Ql] ,L.. 11v /;I. a., QILual 6 ),;.I .llI1 01 / 0 b jsl "I b %j J .rq .%a

    '14 :'L4 u..1 jow4u u. (,L ....0.4 4jI~ II J1v) i'41 .~tJ 1 A i ' J~ .l

    4llo) 4) & ?-I Y b 41. Q4J1 I4 .bll b41.I . vI41/b o) * I,Y%A I

    ..Ju"j ' l .I1.1 It U 61 -. 4 41W .d I 0q I4 . % %. 10.X.W10. I,*iL.. =1 .lI 4Yt YW, 4&X I1A W:it.] 11b-,4i IbtAliA .X. ".-) 6U1 .o j 1 o1 e. IR

    ,l\5oy UA-A U61 "I) vINa JY 4 .14 v&.JU1 )~j ~ l 'kSjlrt *b ib

    --T*1UA: ,i C_I 441J 11- 11 -4 blly- -5W ,jl4l- -- wAo i . ol b*% A 4 .94. c, L

    ,40 d-U 1* 1 @t A I LUl j ')-J ,VII.C 11 OAl -,41 J'Al bt&j7 ,9,%As,ot VI rfo *0Xl/. rk C .,A J, ,/,bu

    w~~~~~~~~~Jjk ju 1s 4_AS cb-Dp-s lsia) -. M1Usi q itp

    /elley 411 L,J_l vpla bc ua.1 41 lbLia faJr, b Svc#AI *,V A llly ;o,Y......... -lII

    # 1 j- wi1 I-4 C- jjLIIbWJ4 Ib j i LI Al43L.iif r, blS -- aljo 4;gh l% t Yr/ec , S re.

  • iA_ / .Aj LI- cJ a(sAJ.~ L3.A A JJl

    II. .(4s(.J1 nUll) 4 d l (J %°' bjA %r.) vt1 WWI $L-. 4Mi "/*c lL* . 6 `,- AJO L-U ulf J)UJ .10 4

    ,,J 'u* X,4W * dJbk,$ I JU .J I L*k V~ JJU tJLI IjO eL~ti i :. ~4la AL. tw I . i)l, lUjU l ..- J~~j~ J.3 ut-jJI l Oj¢ -P S. UI UA-I

    wh w '4 YA e-AJ t-y- auR d1 di Quwil) ";t AN ,i;?) 'o. 9r w6).kko1I blII & J 'A U- W)JUIJ "61A i"ll _'b j I -W Ij JX W A .(Y ..I

    (.-NLA II,J4 j5ijv "'Wl

    IW- 4u41 *-h *S IIjj*lu 4fifilJ Ms} = XD1 JS iy uB *, * r*. W*j L,A, 1

    ,-44 PLO 4-S aW 41B L-S .JJA CSJ 1W 4YW4IP J%6

    4_.1 ,,,,5. ,LJjJ j3D4 .e1it.J 4' w QI UJ411 ( ; % PM J WWI4I J QW hjL0jlA %I .) *J,I . sky et a -Y*. :

    4- ICiJ L4UJ U- W L- IwI. V;U 0 %.)

    4.p1u12 U-I" e1 oe*') C-il Is lip 44 il1g) -wd

    ,,, \ \% °~-yr i CrOai Y ,_ ii ...... ........ ii

    'JL' II6l IL- a, A,Qw .oUi A '144 *LYM . 'IA* l .|; i 3 q ew j OL>J o

    ,(,4 , jj,A 6JO Wj |J) A'VI %iS,;a

    u .Iz U r. t4 I.gA @L-.,.,s J ...... t "I xA 4iL. 61 ;ox La-IJI ul5 ;- 1.1 ,Y,

  • .{Y . ,Ji Jl +;i il 4ki b ) b;a lu Ij.. 1WW Di k)if 0- ILIV .vii Aiv ,

    ,, 4,1 I:,i .1aa xa .'i a

    .,¢WLt r- E r4,L4,D0 .i14 .,.r% *VA 64 1L- .1. I rei rL . ,441 V1 a"5 XS iNa~~~v9X@R, VIJ ".L U 4M.WNlk46.p r,. $ .OM/.t Et L 8,A

    I~~~ .1. i#' 4/ul ) ) -'ii 0 -t-aaQA - l

    b. WL A b; a e g . ,r iE xiJi .k b. A b; Y~~~~~~~~~~~~~4-0 .isMXi ^9 -Si; lA

    W *b b, %t° bloj1~~~~~-,IIM 8' WLlj VSI ajili viiiloilU _dIJ hlA ;.8%oAii er,,.Li WiL

    ,-i ylJ) woli wI,pzNi .1P1 .,.E r,o j Y-ii zi >i .Gf w ,^ Q il l 46 P f .WN; ,,i 4E I tel,Y1,11F, pai 1% %

    (MsiT~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4 i Sei

    U. @ wUil a hL. ba 4p i At # .EW oL; el b. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~Wsil sLAil A 4*il W bo ooI-D "ajhil ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ A*

  • i

  • Y&l {mti4ut',til0.'l,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IIALY c*i

    YI * 1,AWI ;1~P _Wr,r f,1 nr (jjLA) ,

    Y" 5' f ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(;J6 U. )\ > Ja 5

    Y,A (-J4 "I-)] a"

    DALY '4j1.. DALY 41J. *1QW1 DALY cjL- U" wi fiyl DALY ChilJ~LI*jijA^l1i w3J1A ~JLiJ 3L £JA 1a iIulE Z.i.Z.l ZJla. .... &............. 1IjAsi

    V, I,V%. N-,5Yr 1,ooy \AW,VV IA,it ...... .,.Al L,.Vi

  • (p iii) j4F QyW' IJ .3> 014VIJ-lqJ OAt.Y :a.ji-

    oi,Ao% m5* A AUl oLeDLOtt-. VI.e 8 ( PA:, OR uJs P

    i.,o JL(& jU.% WA ;V Qll PP NjBj Ds.E% ~~~~~~~~(ci5 v ,Ju 14-1) umi bL-

    vAY U.Aa (koe),A Y r, .Y% RA (i W %) iSLll DAY a1oa &L

    t 15S S)u~~~~~~~~(koe) km%1 ::;j1,j1j04m

    DALY 'l4j- 's yl.qA240 PAR OR D+ l..I% u l tA1 CA"a3ua a .01 PP NBD C

    lWyt 5A,UhSAVO DALY .Aj.. (i.) 411-1 tPARoo =,A VA* r . (OR -&L)aI .i ( UR-)Al.r A). *--£^ U,A I ar .V\)D o-L.AA .I

    ^^g DALY QLA whAv

    I*Ak)Wt@ I>SsDALY,,A AA* :uP Vq PAR OR c4AY d" 41 k.2,A

    WUn d 0-1 PP NOD c.vYvYr rri .,).1r r r 4,1% y.i. CJ. 0 J.1LLI-,>tu;s 1W^Ytryr illY .,YM£M\ i i,\% Dv-¢.. (U. a ) OLA d L)A_- Y1VY £ M * ,8ll-ry r 1,% r . U. I a ")* oLA lrIol 1r) O .,-rlityi I£ 1,'1% Aar. - (68°I a L) LA31 ....... uw,pll

    1AVitA vi DALY vL41

    OR= k-+Yl AuNBD= v'^0 uto7 o'

    PAR PP- (OR - 1) / (PP* (OR-1) + I

  • UL; ,-A 4JI- s44 C,- Z-- X6V I9 o@,JIP ?. --. j) j_A >A UsIaUyl , JA 140 4,L s- Z- ss 6 oWQ ,6 (NBD) 4sy (OR) 4-+jVii Ja..j .U1a13 V--j CjL< 1#~ 1ja. "nr a L 3a. 6 t4 WL.g o .aadOL9 Laji3l 6y ta L AJI U lj ~ ~1i.4LK ., JL&J.1i nL~Aj d.m

    vathk~J 4u . o ,j, djU A~1 ,y;1 JoJ cJA (~jt~ S! v ~~) S -LJ4A - U ad- t;.uI * * a .. Smith _; alMl1 jJ DALY ^t s, .1I4b (1 s&44 o s y4.j .ju W L ^tl uI A I r f'Tu imL LJ ' s LAM

    " O1tDlk J J. U &b .,I) AO Js J, s.(,J QI .F VAIlLII -WiL DALY iaj J Smit C ,, ,r)A4h) s

    Ip u-W 4-15v JazW 4.?%w jin ' (s,Y *A J4 &:U >et ") . ^ zf Xt 5tasl5 s :Nl VI_

    ,,i < *31:(*,7.;LA