Workshop Stanford - LDOMicrosoft PowerPoint - Workshop Stanford - LDO.ppt Author walzer Created Date...
Transcript of Workshop Stanford - LDOMicrosoft PowerPoint - Workshop Stanford - LDO.ppt Author walzer Created Date...
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Risk Assessment of Complex Infrastructures
Leonardo Dueñas-OsorioAssistant Professor, Rice University, Houston, Texas
Risk Acceptance and Risk Communication Workshop
Stanford UniversityStanford, California
27 March 2007
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Presentation Outline
1. Introduction
2. Infrastructure Reliability
3. Network and Cascading Models
4. Infrastructure System Risk
5. Network Performance
6. Conclusions
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1. Introduction (1)• Attributes of complex systems:
Interacting
Decentralized
Emergent
Evolving
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1. Introduction (1)• Attributes of complex systems:
Interacting
Decentralized
Emergent
Evolving
Sand Pile
Forest
Power Grid
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1. Introduction (2)• Properties with power law:
Carreras et al., 2004
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2. Infrastructure Reliability • Customer-based metrics:
– Analytical Approach: Markov state-space model
– Numerical Approach: Monte Carlo simulation
served customers ofnumber Totaldurationson interruptiCustomer
SAIDI ∑=
served customers ofnumber Totaldinterrupte customers ofNumber
SAIFI ∑=
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3. Network and Cascading Models (1)• Networked systems:
IEEE 118 Node Test System
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3. Network and Cascading Models (1)• Networked systems:
IEEE 118 Node Test System
Generic Transmission and
Distribution (TD) System
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3. Network and Cascading Models (2)
ii LC )1( α+=
Capacity - CTolerance - Load -
i
αiL
• Cascading model:
• Triggering events: – Targeted disruptions: node degree, node load
– Natural hazards: earthquake and lightning in Western U.S.
• Performance measure:
Branching Process
Numerical Simulation
ts μ=ˆ
D
D
nnS '
=
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4. Infrastructure Risk (1)• Probability of blackout size - LG:
Failed Distribution Nodes
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4. Infrastructure Risk (2)• Probability of blackout size - EQ:
Failed Distribution Nodes
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4. Infrastructure Risk (3)• Network Interdependencies:
0 0.5 1 1.50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
PGA (g)
P(W
ater
DS
> 2
0% C
L | P
GA
and
Pw
|p)
P(W Nf | PNf) = PW NfP(W Nf | PNf) = 0.2P(W Nf | PNf) = 0.5P(W Nf | PNf) = 1.0
Independent
Interdependent
P ( D
S >
20%
CL
| PG
A )
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5. Network Performance (1)• Evolution of cascading failure:
Con
nect
ed D
istri
butio
n N
odes
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5. Network Performance (2)• Size of triggering event:
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5. Network Performance (3)• Steady-state response:
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6. Conclusions
• Engineered infrastructures possess the attributes of complex systems
• Tolerance α improves performance but rapidly becomes impractical
• Topological changes are needed for reliability
• Networked systems exhibit increased likelihood of large-scale disruptions
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Thank You
Questions and Discussion