Workshop on Planning Coordinated Research on Ecosystems, Climate, and Policy in the Northeast.
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Transcript of Workshop on Planning Coordinated Research on Ecosystems, Climate, and Policy in the Northeast.
SSB for 4 GB Groundfish Stocks, 1985-2002
0
2 0 , 0 0 0
4 0 , 0 0 0
6 0 , 0 0 0
8 0 , 0 0 0
1 0 0 , 0 0 0
1 2 0 , 0 0 0
1 4 0 , 0 0 0
1 6 0 , 0 0 0
1 8 0 , 0 0 0
2 0 0 , 0 0 0
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
2002 (projected)
Y e a r
SSB (mt)
G B W i n t e r F l ( T o t a l B )
G B Y e l l o w t a i l
G B H a d d o c k
G B C o d
*2002 projections are from Groundfish PDT work for Amendment 13.
*2002 total B estimate for GB winter flounder from short-term projections in NMFS GARM Report (2002).
Ho sted by t he C o o per a t ive Institut e
f or C li ma t e a nd O c e a n Re s e a r c h
o f t h e W o o d s H o l e O c e a n o g r a ph ic
In s titu t io n &
T h e Nor t h e a s t F is h er ie s S c ience
C e nte r o f t h e N a ti o n a l M a r in e Fis h eri e s
Se r vi ce
Re port on a
Work sho p on Planning C oor dinated Res earch
On E co syste ms, Cli mate, and Po li c y in t he Nor t heast
DRAFT February 15, 2005
January 11 -13, 2005 J. Eric J onsso n Cente r of the Nat ional Academy of Sciences
Woods Hole , Massachus etts
First in a series of workshops hosted by ‘wet’ cooperative institutes on regional marine ecosystems.
Workshop: Jan 11-13, 2005Draft Report: Feb 15, 2005Final Report: March 1, 2005
http://www.whoi.edu/science/cicor/
Goal: determine the coordinated research needed to support better understanding of
marine ecosystems in the Northeast and of the impacts of climate variability and the human
population on these ecosystems.
Context and background: WHOI and NEFSC work in GLOBEC Georges Bank Program; WHOI climate, ecosystems, and policy strengths; NEFSC sampling
and research; growing attention to integrated observing capabilities; desire for next generation of
studies; the overlap of climate and ecosystems variabilities
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Water Temperature
-1.5
0.0
1.5
NAO
NAO
WHDt
SSB for 4 GB Groundfish Stocks, 1985-2002
0
2 0 , 0 0 0
4 0 , 0 0 0
6 0 , 0 0 0
8 0 , 0 0 0
1 0 0 , 0 0 0
1 2 0 , 0 0 0
1 4 0 , 0 0 0
1 6 0 , 0 0 0
1 8 0 , 0 0 0
2 0 0 , 0 0 0
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
2002 (projected)
Y e a r
SSB (mt)
G B W i n t e r F l ( T o t a l B )
G B Y e l l o w t a i l
G B H a d d o c k
G B C o d
*2002 pr oject ions ar e f r om G r oundf ish PDT wor k f or Am endm ent 13.
*2002 t ot al B est im at e f or G B wint er f lounder f r om shor t - t er m pr oject ions in NM FS G ARM Repor t ( 2002) .
Annual average SST in Woods Hole and NAO Index
Georges Bank groundfish stocks 1985-2002
Attendees:
WHOI Maine Sea Grant Shoals Marine Lab
Mass Fisherman’s Partnership U Mass, Boston
NEFSC USGS MBL
Buzzards Bay Project Nat’l Estuary Program NOAA OST
Stellwagen Bank Nat’l Marine Sanctuary NOAA OAR
New England Fisheries Management Council BUMP
Mass. Division of Marine Fisheries Battelle
EPA Dartmouth DFO, Canada
Maine Dept Marine Resources GSO, URI
Maine Sea Grant U Mass, Lowell UNH
U Mass, Dartmouth BIO, Canada U Maine
Memorial U, St John’s NF NOAA COP
NOAA NMFS
Agenda• Mike Sinclair, BIO - Ecosystems based management - what does it mean?
Scientist/Manager Pairs
• WG 1 - Harmful Algal Blooms
• WG2 - Nutrients and Contaminants
• WG3 - Fisheries
• WG4 - Biodiversity Conservation
Synthesis Groups
• Research
• Modelling
• Observations
• Education and outreach
Recommendations
• Assess horizons of predictability and management• Establish a baseline for identifying change• Develop improved predictive capabilities, using integrated ecosystems
approach, considering multiple abiotic and biotic factors and assess the role of climate change in comparison to other natural and human drivers. Drive model improvement with sustained observations and comprehensive studies.
• Build the NE observing system, with sustained observations at key sites, broad surveys, quantification of estuarine, atmospheric, alongshore, and offshore exchanges.
• Comprehensive research studies to resolve high temporal and spatial variability and critical processes and build improved understanding, parameterizations and models.
• Develop an adaptive approach to management with research in the loop and feedback to the researchers
• Foster ongoing dialog across climate, ecosystems, policy and across researchers, fisherman, NOAA, and managers and other stakeholders.
Timeline• Near-term 0-3 years
– Start baseline assessment– Identify priority elements of NE obs system– Assess present climate and ecosystems models and develop strategy to go forward– Initiate program to assess horizons of predictability, what limits skillful prediction: b.c.,
parameterizations, physics, biology,…– Initiate a diverse working group to continue interaction, review progress, and improve
plans
• 3-7 years– Complete baseline assessment– Establish sustained obs at key and reference sites; begin process studies addressing
limitations to prediction– Produce and validate improved surface forcing; integrate improved forcing with
improved regional atmospheric and climate models– Establish partnerships to obtain data from the boundaries (coast, open ocean, north,
south)– Begin building integrated ecosystems model system, provide operational and research
results to community– Institute model validation experiments, keying on intensive studies, time series at key
sites, broad scale sampling, and historical data to test hindcasting
Timeline
• 7-15 years– Build the model system into a NE region adaptive ecosystem-based management
approach, develop products sought by managers. Target decadal scale variability and longer term change as the goal of this phase.
– Operate and improve NE obs system; embed it in and link to ocean, atmosphere, and land observing systems. Develop and include automated observing systems for key biological elements such as plankton, intertidal organisms, and benthos.
– Carry out comprehensive studies to resolve processes, build parameterizations, and test and improve models.
– Institute a 4-year cycle to document change in the physical and biological systems of the NE, the success of models (predictive and hindcast), the effectiveness of the observing system, and the success and continuing challenges of an ecosystems-based approach to management.