Workshop on Non hydrostatic modelling 8 10 November 2010€¦ · Vertical resolution – 91 → 135...
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Non‐hydrostatic workshop Nov 2010 © ECMWF Slide 1 Workshop on Non‐hydrostatic modelling 8‐10 November 2010
Transcript of Workshop on Non hydrostatic modelling 8 10 November 2010€¦ · Vertical resolution – 91 → 135...
Non‐hydrostatic workshop Nov 2010 © ECMWF Slide 1
Workshop onNon‐hydrostatic modelling
8‐10 November 2010
Non‐hydrostatic workshop Nov 2010 © ECMWF Slide 2
Present main operational forecast models
●Global forecast model– 16 km grid point distance– 91 vertical levels– Hydrostatic– Forecast range: 10 days
●Ensemble Prediction System– 51 parallel forecasts– Perturbed initial conditions and stochastic model error– 32 km grid point distance
Non‐hydrostatic workshop Nov 2010 © ECMWF Slide 3
Forecast quality – Days of useful skill(500 hPa height, anomaly correlation>0.6, N. Hemisphere)
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Non‐hydrostatic workshop Nov 2010 © ECMWF Slide 4
Increasing resolution
●Vertical resolution – 91 → 135 levels by year 2011
●Horizontal resolution – 16→ 10 km by year 2015
●Beyond 2015– 10 km → 5 km (≈ year 2020)
●Non‐hydrostatic model formulation, “grey zone”●Fast Legendre transforms
Non‐hydrostatic workshop Nov 2010 © ECMWF Slide 5
Orography T3999 (~5km)
Non‐hydrostatic workshop Nov 2010 © ECMWF Slide 6
Cloud cover 24h forecast T3999 (~5km)
Non‐hydrostatic workshop Nov 2010 © ECMWF Slide 7
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GP_DYN
SP_DYN
TRANS
Physics
other H - IFS NH - IFS
Computational Cost at TL3999
Total cost increase for 24h forecast: H 50min vs. NH 150min
