Welcome

Workshop on

Foundational issues in

risk assessment and risk management

Hotel Laurin in Salò, Milano, Italy, 3-4 August 2012

-Systems Science and the Energetic challenge,

-Institut des Sciences du Risque et de l’Incertain (ISRI),

Centre of risk management

and societal safety

(SEROS)

Terje Aven,

University of

Stavanger, Norway

Lee B. Clarke, Rutgers

University, USA Tony Cox, Cox

Associates, USA

Seth Guikema,

John Hopkins

University, USA

Elisabeth Paté-

Cornell, Stanford

University, USA

Enrico Zio,

Politecnico di

Milano, Italy,

ECP, France

Sven Ove Hansson,

The Royal Institute of

Stockholm, KTH,

Sweden

Roger Flage Elisabeth S.

Fiskå

Mitchell Small,

Carnegie Mellon

University, USA

Henning Boje

Andersen, Technical

University of Denmark,

DTU

The background

How it all started

my interest for foundational issues in risk

assessment and management

Statfjord A

Piper Alpha

Frequency/probability

Loss of

lives

categories

1-2 >100

Foundation Concepts, principles

Risk assessment

and

risk management

Shaky

Seth Guikema Ortwin Renn Enrico Zio

What is risk? What is terrorism risk? Assessment approaches, risk

management principles

Uncertainities in risk assessments, model uncertainties

Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

- Paté-Cornell, M.E. (1996) Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of

treatment. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54 (2-3), 95-111.

-

Paté-Cornell, M.E. (2012) On black swans and perfect storms: risk analysis

and management when statistics are not enough. Risk Analysis.

Sven Ove Hansson

Möller, N., Hansson, S.O., Person, M., 2006. Safety is more than the

antonym of risk. Journal of Applied Philosophy 23, 419–432.

Aven (2008) Safety is the antonym of risk for some perspectives

of risk. Safety Science

Tony Cox

Cox, T. (2012) Confronting Deep Uncertainties in Risk

Analysis. Risk Analysis

Cox (2011) How Probabilistic Risk Assessment Can Mislead

Terrorism Risk Analysts

Cox (2010) Why Risk Is Not Variance: An Expository Note

…

Henning Boje Andersen Mitchell Small

Lee B. Clarke

Foundation Concepts, principles

Risk assessment

and

risk management

Shaky

Engineering Transpor-

tation … Finance Medicine

Knowledge about the «World»

Concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles and methods

for

understanding, assessing, managing and communicating risk,

vulnerability and uncertainties

Risk assessment and management in different

applications

1980-90s • Thompson KM, Deisler Jr. PH, Schwing RC. Interdisciplinary vision: The

first 25 years of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), 1980–2005. Risk

Analysis, 2005; 25:1333–1386.

• Nuclear risk community

Where is this enthusiasm now?

• Have we solved the fundamental problems

of risk assessment and risk management ?

• Have these fields now a strong foundation?

No, No, No

Foundation Concepts, principles

Risk assessment

and

risk management

Shaky

• «Risk = expected loss»

Risk

P X C

• For some experts “risk” equals expected loss of life expectancy (HM Treasury 2005, p. 33).

• Traditionally, hazmat transport risk is defined as the expected undesirable consequence of the shipment, i.e. the probability of a release incident multiplied by its consequence (Verma and Verter 2007).

• Risk is defined as the expected loss to a given element or a set of elements resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude (Lirer et al. 2001).

• Risk refers to the expected loss associated with an event. It is measured by combining the magnitudes and probabilities of all of the possible negative consequences of the event (Mandel 2007).

• Terrorism risk (Willis 2007): The expected consequences of an existent threat, which for a given target, attack mode, target vulnerability, and damage type, can be expressed as the probability that an attack occurs multiplied by the expected damage, given that an attack occurs.

• Flood risk is defined as expected flood damage for a given time period (Floodcite 2006).

x

John offers you a game:

throwing a die

• ”1,2,3,4,5”: 6

• ”6”: -24

What is your risk?

Risk

(C,P):

• 6 5/6

• -24 1/6

Is based on an important

assumption – the die is fair

Assumption 1: …

Assumption 2: …

Assumption 3: …

Assumption 4: …

…

Assumption 50: The platform jacket structure will withstand

a ship collision energy of 14 MJ

Assumption 51: There will be no hot work on the platform

Assumption 52: The work permit system is adhered to

Assumption 53: The reliability of the blowdown system is p

Assumption 54: There will be N crane lifts per year

…

Assumption 100: …

…

“Background knowledge” • Assumptions

• Data

• Models

• Expert opinions

Model: A very crude gas dispersion model is applied

Existing frameworks, principles and concepts

Terje Aven,

University of

Stavanger, Norway

Lee B. Clarke, Rutgers

University, USA Tony Cox, Cox

Associates, USA

Seth Guikema,

John Hopkins

University, USA

Elisabeth Paté-

Cornell, Stanford

University, USA

Enrico Zio,

Politecnico di

Milano, Italy,

ECP, France

Sven Ove Hansson,

The Royal Institute of

Stockholm, KTH,

Sweden

Roger Flage Elisabeth S.

Fiskå

Mitchell Small,

Carnegie Mellon

University, USA

Henning Boje

Andersen, Technical

University of Denmark,

DTU

Workshop

Revitalise the focus and enthusiasm for fundamental issues in the

risk field

How should we proceed?

Output/deliverable from the workshop:

•A “special issue” of Risk Analysis comprising a set of relatively short

perspective papers – 5-6 pages - of reflections and points of views of the

participants; not methods and applications but reflections on: are we

addressing the right questions with the proper analytical frameworks?

Theories,

frameworks,

principles,

methods,

concepts

Today Future

Theories,

frameworks,

principles,

methods,

concepts

New types of systems

and risks

Risk and uncertainty conceptualization, assessment and

management in case of deep uncertainties …

Deep

uncertainties

Black swans

Unknown

unknowns

The need for seeing beyond probability to assess risk

Foundation Concepts, principles

Risk assessment

and

risk management

Substance of

various

issues

What issues,

challenges,

and how to

proceed

Issue Issue

Issue Issue

Issue Issue Issue

Issues

General challenges and

measures to meet them

General challenges/ obstacles

Measures

Lack of fora SRA speciality group

ESRA group SRA expert group

This workshop

Few young researchers

Identification of talented young researchers

Workshop

Few papers This process Special issues The other measures

Refute unfortunate conceptions

The journals should establish scientific pillars of the fields

The other measures

…

SRA speciality group

Decision Analysis and Risk

Dose-Response

Ecological Risk Assessment

Economics and Benefits Analysis

Emerging Nanoscale Materials<>

Engineering and Infrastructure

Exposure Assessment

Microbial Risk Analysis

Risk and Development

Risk Communication

Risk Policy and Law

Security and Defense

+ Fundamental issues ?

• Establish a forum for young talented

researchers where fundamental issues is

a key topic

Aven, T. (2012) Foundational issues in risk assessment

and risk management. Risk Analysis.

• The SRA should revitalize its work on foundations and establish a group of

experts to discuss and clarify issues related to fundamental definitions

• and principles.

• The leading journals in the risk fields should encourage more contributions

focusing on foundational issues to refute obvious unfortunate conceptions.

• The journals should develop documents showing the scientific pillars of the

fields to guide reviewers and editors in the paper-reviewing processes.

• Experts in the risk fields should be more involved in standardization

committees to ensure that the directions supported by the standards are in

line with the best competence and knowledge available.

General challenges/ obstacles

Measures

Lack of fora SRA speciality group

ESRA group SRA expert group

This workshop

Few young researchers

Identification of talented young researchers

Workshop

Few papers This process Special issues The other measures

Refute unfortunate conceptions

The journals should establish scientific pillars of the fields

The other measures

…

Workshop program ideas

and structure