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![Page 1: Workshop on Demographic Analysis and Evaluation. Mortality: Assessing Completeness of Reporting الوفيات: تقييم مدى اكتمال الإبلاغ.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649ea25503460f94ba59c3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Workshop on
Demographic Analysis and Evaluation
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Mortality:Assessing Completeness
of Reportingمدى: تقييم الوفيات
اإلبالغ اكتمال
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Adjustment of Mortality( للوفيات (التكيف
In this part of the workshop we will cover indirect techniques for assessing the completeness of death reporting using:
The Brass’ Growth Balance Method
Hill’s Method
المباشرة غير األساليب تغطي سوف نحن الحلقة من الجزء هذا في: الوفيات عن اإلبالغ اكتمال مدى لتقييم
" براس " التوازن نمو أسلوبهيل أسلوب
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
This technique estimates the completeness of reporting of deaths over age 5 in relation to information on population. It compares the distribution of deaths in relation to the distribution of population, both by age
العمر مدى على الوفيات عن اإلبالغ اكتمال مدى التقنية هذه وتقدر5 . توزيع يقارن فإنه بالسكان المتعلقة بالمعلومات يتعلق فيما
. العمر حسب كال السكان، لتوزيع بالنسبة . الوفيات
Spreadsheet:GRBAL.xls
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
Data required:
Deaths by age, preferably in 5-year age groups.
Population with the same age and sex breakdown as deaths.
If possible, the time reference for the population should be midyear of the year to which the deaths pertain.
: المطلوبة البيانات
من العمرية الفئات في ذلك يكون أن يفضل العمر، حسب .5الوفيات سنوات
. وفاة كحالة نفس والجنس العمر حسب السكان
للسنة السنة منتصف للسكان الزمنية اإلشارة تكون أن ينبغي ،J ممكنا ذلك كان إذا. الوفيات تتعلق التي
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
Assumptions: The population is stable. Degree of completeness of deaths reporting is uniform above age 5 or 10 years. No age misreporting of the population or of deaths.
االفتراضات: . مستقر السكان سن فوق موحد الوفيات عن اإلبالغ اكتمال 10أو 5درجة
سنوات.. الوفاة حاالت من أو السكان من مضللة أنباء نشر سن يوجد ال
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
Procedure:
Calculate cumulated population for ages x and over by cumulated population reported in each age group 5+, 10+ …
Calculate cumulated deaths for the same ages
Calculate partial death rates: ratios of cumulated deaths to cumulated population
Calculate partial birth rates: ratios of population age x to population ages x+
Plot the partial birth and death rates and fit a line to the plotted points
:لإلعمار المتراكمة السكان حساب التي xاإلجراء المتراكمة السكان عليها واستولتعمرية + فئة كل في اإلعمار +... 10، 5ذكرت لحساب المتراكمة الوفيات حساب
: حساب المتراكمة للسكان المتراكمة الوفيات نسب الجزئية الوفاة معدالت نفس : بين أعمارهم تتراوح الذين للسكان العاشر سن السكان نسب الجزئية الوالدة معدالت
x + المرسومة للنقاط خط وتناسب والوفيات المواليد معدالت جزئية ارسم
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
Procedure:The slope of a fitted line represents completeness of coverage of deaths reporting
Deaths may then be adjusted using the completeness of coverage adjustment factor
اإلجراء: اكتمال يمثل تركيب خط من المنحدر
الوفيات عن اإلبالغ الوفيات تغطية اكتمال استخدام تعديلها يمكن الوفيات
التكيف عامل تغطية
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Method implemented in PAS spreadsheet:
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Spreadsheet:GRBAL.xls
Brass' Growth-Balance Method
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Spreadsheet:GRBAL.xls
Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
After required data are entered into the spreadsheet by the analyst, the spreadsheet will automatically apply the calculations described above, to fit lines to observed points…
البيانات جدول في المطلوبة البيانات إدخال بعدالحسابات بيانات جدول بتطبيق J تلقائيا سيقوم بالمحلل،
... المالحظة نقاط إلى األسطر احتواء أعاله، المذكورة
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Brass Growth Balance Method, Lines Fitted to Default Age Groups
60
5550
4540
3530252015105
0.0000
0.0200
0.0400
0.0600
0.0800
0.1000
0.1200
0.1400
0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700 0.0800 0.0900
P artial death rates
Par
tial
bir
th r
ates
Observed Line 1 Line 2 45 degrees
1. Partial Birth and Death Rates
Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
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Spreadsheet:GRBAL.xls
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
The analyst then has the following tasks:
1. Review observed points on graph.
2. Review lines fitted to observe points, as generated with the default age group settings of the PAS spreadsheet; and change the defaults as needed to improve fit of lines. (You will have two lines to work with.)
3. Identify the line with best fit.
4. Take note of the completeness measure and correction factor associated with line containing the best fit.
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Program:GRBAL.xls
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
: التالية بالمهام المحلل قد ثم1. البياني- الرسم على النقاط الحظ استعراضإنشاؤه- 2 تم كما النقاط، لمراقبة المجهزة الخطوط استعراض
نظام البيانات جدول من العمرية للفئة االفتراضية اإلعدادات معالحاجة حسب االفتراضية اإلعدادات بتغيير وقم األداء؛ تقييم
.( ) . خطين مع العمل إلى لديك سيكون خطوط تناسب لتحسين 3 . األفضل- االحتواء مع الخط تحديدبالسطر- 4 المرتبطة معامل وتصحيح قياس باكتمال علما تحيط
. األفضل االحتواء على يحتوي الذي
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Program:GRBAL.xls
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Correction factors
Completeness measures
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Spreadsheet:GRBAL.xls
Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
Advantage:
The technique provides an estimate of the coverage of deaths, and that estimate is remarkably robust to violation of the assumptions of the method.
الميزة: وهذا للوفيات، التغطية تقدير التقنية يوفر
االفتراضات النتهاك قوية ملحوظ التقدير. األسلوب المتعلقة
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Brass' Growth-Balance Method - التوازن النمو أسلوب"براس
Limitations:
Rapid changes in mortality or fertility will affect the results of the method.
Migration will also have an effect on the results if the age structure of the migrants differs from that of the population.
Age misreporting and differential completeness of reporting of population by age affect the estimated adjustment factor.
Estimation of completeness of deaths reporting refers only to ages 5+.
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Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Methodالنمو توازن أسلوب المعمم هيل
Brass’ growth-balance method (Brass 1975, United Nations 1983) estimates completeness of deaths reporting beyond childhood under strong assumptions about the demographic stability of a population.
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Hill’s generalization builds on the earlier work by Brass (Brass 1975, 1979; United Nations 1983), and the work by Martin (1980), and Preston and Hill (1980) but (1) allows for evaluation of either deaths or bracketing censuses, and (2) allows for an intercensal interval other than 5 years.
Hill’s method estimates relative completeness of two census enumerations and of intercensal registered deaths.
Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Methodالنمو توازن أسلوب المعمم هيل
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Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Method
Data required:
two censuses by age and sex
deaths by age and sex during the intercensal period (or an estimate of deaths for this period)
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Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Method
Assumptions:
Population is closed to migration.
Population is demographically stable.
Completeness of death recording is constant at all ages above some childhood age “a.”
Completeness of census coverage is constant across ages.
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Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Method
Procedure:
The general equation (Hill 1987, p.9)
The growth rate
)(
)()(
)(
)(
aN
aDar
aN
aN
21 /log*)/1()()( kktarar o
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Person-years lived
Entries to the population
Intercensal deaths
)(
1)(
2/121
aNkk
aN o
)(
1)(
2/121
aNkk
aN o
3/)()( kaDaD o
Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Method
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Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Method
Final estimation equation
)(
)(*
)(log*)/1()(
)(
)(
3
2/121
2
1
aN
aD
k
kk
k
ktar
aN
aNo
oo
o
o
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Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Method
Final estimation equation
)(
)(*
)(log*)/1()(
)(
)(
3
2/121
2
1
aN
aD
k
kk
k
ktar
aN
aNo
oo
o
o
y = 1.1685x + 0.006
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14
[(N
0(a)
/N0(
a+))
-r0
(a+]
[D0(a+)/N0(a+)]
Generalized growth balance method: Female poulation of South Korea, 1970-75
Spreadsheet:HillGGB.xls
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Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Method
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Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Method
G enera l ized grow th ba lance m ethod: Fem ale poula tion of S outh Korea , 1970-75
y = 1.1685x + 0.006
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14
[D 0(a+)/N 0(a+)]
[(N
0(a
)/N
0(a
+))
- r
0(a
+]
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Hill's Generalized Growth-Balance Method
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