Working Group 4

“We predict Success”

Biggest Issues

• Forecasts “R” Us - what needs to be forecasted?

• Probabalistic forecasts - Can we give the forecasters an edge?

Some questions• MHD codes have large potential difference between

hemispheres during solstices. How does real magnetosphere deal with this? Any evidence to support the existance of such a potential difference?

• Polar cap saturation vs. no saturation in the ring current• Ring current dependence of saturation - does big ring

current change saturation potential• Better understanding of equinoctal effects in coupling VBz to

magnetosphere - geometric or energy transfer• Can we distinguish between large transfer constant () and

small events ?• Does energetic particle flux depend on or on other

factors?• Role of upstream Mach number

Some projects• Look at AIME runs for summer and winter. Invesitgate

ideas for equalizing potential (differential conductivity modification, shunting of current from dark to lit hemisphere)

• Ring current dependence of saturation - look at DMSP flights during isolated storms and series of storms

• Studies of - integrate VBz and RC injection for each storm, get geoeffectiveness, look at influence of various properties, storm history, behavior of energetic electrons

• Role of upstream Mach number in magnetosheath field seen by GOES/AMPTE CCE during magnetosheath crossings