Workforce Symposium 2015: Star Jobs Transition Book Pg. 32 Forecasting Industry Employment Demand and Identifying Demand Occupations in Louisiana Workforce Symposium Dec 15 16, 2015 Occupational Forecasts Short Term 2016 Projection: 2,106, % growth 1.3% average annual growth Occupational Forecasts Long Term 2022 Projection: 2,262, growth 1.3% average annual growth 1.1% National Growth Background: Occupational Forecasting Reforms The previous model was based solely on historical wage-record data not forward looking and no industry inputs. LWC, under the direction of the Workforce Investment Council (WIC), has expanded forecasting capabilities in partnership with Louisiana Economic Development, local workforce boards, business associations, and LSU to include: Short-term and long-term projections Industry and occupational breakouts Statewide and regional analysis Purpose Provide a comprehensive view on anticipated employment trends in Louisiana Identify and prioritize in-demand occupations Required for use in LA Higher Education Funding Formula Assist Louisiana Workforce Commission (LWC), local Workforce Development Boards (WDBs), and Workforce and Innovation for a Stronger Economy (WISE) Council in allocating funds provided for workforce development Aid students and job-seekers with career-planning Our Partners Louisiana Economic Development Workforce Investment Council (WIC) Local Workforce Boards Business associations LSU Methodology Big Picture Occupation-level forecasting is a two-step process: 1.Industry-level forecasts using data thru Project to 2017 (short-term) and 2024 (long-term) 2.Occupation-level forecasts, built from Industry-level -Also project short and long-term 3.Louisiana adds the step of building a Star Rating System by occupation This presentation will briefly detail these steps Industry-level Forecasts Start with historical employment data in all industries for each region 846 unique industry-regions, over 90 industries per region LWC provides initial forecast using Standard Projections software LSU builds on initial statistical approach by closely examining the drivers of growth that are particular to Louisiana Industry-level Forecasts: Applying Louisiana-specific knowledge Input from driver firms and industry groups: Seek and incorporate input from the top 100+ employers in the state Accounting for direct and indirect impact, these firms alone account for over 30% of employment in the state Input from several agencies and industry groups is additionally incorporated: e.g. LA Health Works Commission, LA Economic Development, LA Chemical Alliance, LMOGA, GBRIA, SLCUC, regional economic development groups Crucial insights on multiple items in the overall process, including: Hiring outlooks Most important items driving hiring and expansion decisions High-demand occupations Turnover rates and occupations that are changing in relevance Converting Industry to Occupation Staffing Patterns Ratio of occupations observed in each industry. LWC works with BLS to determine statewide patterns Replacement Rates: Will Roofers be retiring at a higher rate in 2024? Change Factors: Will Physician Assistant be hired at faster rate relative to other hires? Driver Firms and Industry groups again provide valuable input Alliance Safety Council: initial & refresher safety training over time, by age and occupation LA State Board of Nursing Annual Report Driver Firm engagement: overall Engineer/ Craft turnover rates Occupational Forecasts: Converting Industry to Occupation Apply Staffing Patterns to industry forecasts to yield occupational projections by industry Sum across industries to yield total occupational projections Review occupational forecasts (3,810 total forecasts) Final approval by WIC/OFC Published on Rating Occupations: Stars LWC website provides info on available jobs: Wages Educational requirements Star Rating Star Rating: decision aid for job-seekers, employers, and policy planners Rates a job by how well it pays, and the occupations outlook Intended to reflect opportunity offered by an occupation. Star Rating Methodology Four components considered for each occupation: Long-term occupational hiring outlook Short-term occupational hiring outlook Current Job Openings Wages (double weighted) Each occupation is assigned between 1-10 points based on the four factors. Star Rating System: Structure Star Rating components for each occupation: Short-term outlook Long-term outlook Current Openings Wages weighted twice Growth Rule If the long-term growth openings and the prior year job openings are below the 40 th percentile then the occupation cannot be more than 2 star. Convert the average of component rankings to Stars Who Else Uses Star Jobs? As one of the most robust forecasting models in the nation, Star Jobs is now being used by: LCTCS Board of Regents Department of Education JumpStart Career Pathways Review Panel TOPS Tech Workforce and Innovation for a Stronger Economy (WISE) Industry-Based Certifications (IBC) Council to make critical programmatic decisions. How Can You Help? Provide timely inputs for regional industry and occupational projections through dialogue with regional partners (economic development and industry). Review regional and statewide Star Ratings and provide inputs on any revisions based on local demand. Monitor new developments in the region and provide inputs to change occupational ratings based on emerging demand. Communicate with employers to advertise more with LWC in order for occupation to get better stars.