Wood availability in Germany and Europe Status and Trends

Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands- Production and Use -“

16. September 2010

Speaker: Dr. Hubert Röder

Wood availability in Germany and Europe

Status and Trends

2Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“

TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

Content

Pöyry in brief

Current availability of wood

Conclusions

Measures to increase wood availability

Recommendations

1. Pöyry in brief



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2. Wood availability



Global availability of woodWood availability is more or less stable in Central Europe. Regions with increasing availability of wood (e.g. for Exports to Europe) are Russia, US South, South America and Africa. Short term availability is also high in Canada due to bark beetle desease.

Increasing wood availability Stable/decreasing wood availability Wood deficit areas

Quelle: Pöyry



Current European Wood Flows

Already today a significant part of the wood resource is used in energy production.

EU-27

Wood Resource~485 million m3

Fuel Wood Sawn Wood Wood panels

Fibre / Pulp

Power

HeatBy-Products and Residues

Paper, Board

27% 73%

41%

I N P U T

O U T P U T

•Recovered •Imports

59%



Biomass targets in Europe 2010 - 2020All European member states are planning increased utilisation of biomass* for renewable energy.

* Source: National Renewable Energy Action Plans, 2010, ECN summary



Biomass targets in Europe 2010 - 2020UK, Italy and Ireland are the countries with the most ambitious plans for the utilization of biomass for energy.

* Source: National Renewable Energy Action Plans, 2010



Case Example UK: Bioenergy Players20

06

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

5

201

3

201

4

201

6

Prenergy(Port Talbot)

350MW

MGT Power(Teesside)

300MW

E.ON(Lockerbie)

44MW

MGT Power(Tyneside)

300MWE.ON(Bristol)150MW

Sembcorp(Wilton)30MW

Drax(Selby Co-firing)

500MW

Drax(Selby)300MW

Drax(Immingham)

300MW

Drax(Hull)

300MW

Helius(Bristol)100MW

AngleseyAluminium(Holyhead)

300MW

RWE(Stallingborough)

65MW

Express Power(Tilbury)

60MWUPM

(Shotton)20MW

UPM(Caledonian)

26MW

Planned facilities

Operational facilities

If most of the large-scale projects planned in the UK are successfully completed, an additional 3GW of biomass-based energy capacity will be created by 2016. This is likely to create a demand for in excess of 25 million gmt of biomass.

Planned facilities (S36/local consent granted)

Forth Energy(Dundee)100MW

Forth Energy(Rosyth)100MW

Forth Energy(Grangemouth)

100MW

Forth Energy(Leith)100MW

Ayrshire Power(Hunterston)

240MW

Welsh Power (Newport) 49MW



Case Example UK: Supply Surplus DevelopmentWaste wood and harvesting residues are the only biomass assortments in the UK, which still offer a good supply surplus. Bioenergy players will mainly target these assortments (aditional to oversea imports) and most of the current surplus will be consumed by 2022.

Source: Pöyry



Biomass balance in Europe 2020The estimated woody biomass supply gap in Europe will be > 200 Mio. m³/a in 2020*. Still important NREAPs are missing for final calculation (e.g. PL, CZ, …)

* Source: EU Renewable Energy Roadmap, Pöyry & McKinsey analysis, CEPI

Supply Potential increase(incl. imports)

Total assumedsupply

Gap EstimatedDemand

Energy Industry

Traditional DemandPulp, Panels, Solid Wood..

AdditionalSupplyPotential

Estimated Demand 2020

370-400

150-160 520-560

Million m3

Energy Demand

Current Forest Biomass Supply

Estimated Supply 2020

Gap

340-420

~400

740-820> 200???



Case Example Germany: Renewable Energy investmentsFocus of renewable Energy investments until 2010 have been in onshore wind power. Planned investments until 2020 concentrate on offshore wind power. Pending projects have a focus in Biomass (mainly wood).

1) BAU (Business as Usual) 2010: Renewables-Kapazität bis 2010, abgedeckt über bestehende/weiterentwickelte Fördermechanismen

2) BAU (Business as Usual) 2020: Zusätzliche Renewables-Kapazität bis 2020, abgedeckt über bestehende/weiterentwickelte Fördermechanismen

3) Delta zur Zielerreichung 2020: Renewables-Kapazität bis 2020 unter der Annahme eines Handelsmarktes in der EU 27

BAU 20101) BAU 2010-20202) Delta zur Zielerreichung3)

Others

Small Hydro

Large Hydro

Biogas

Biowaste

Biomass

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

Ren

ewab

les

Kap

azitä

ten

(GW

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Quelle: Pöyry

Delta to acheive targets



Wood availability in Germany

VerbleibendesPotenzial(m³/ha)*

CH

A

CZ

PL

DK

NL

B

F

* Potenzial in m³/ha Gesamtfläche Wald + Nichtwald

Rohstoffbedarfe Nd-IL [Tsd. m³]Grau: Nachbarländer

Mio. m³ WEHAMBasisszenario Szenario F

Potenzial Nadelindustrieholz 5,9 6,7./. Hausbrand 1,0 1,0./. Biomasseheizkraftwerke 0,2 0,2./. Papier- und Zellstoffwerke 5,3 5,3./. Holzwerkstoffindustrie 3,6 3,6

Defizit Potenzial -4,2 -3,4

Softwood Potentials 2008-2012

All Softwood potentials are currently utilized.Additional increase of Softwood availabilty are limited using current management regimes.

Quelle: Pöyry



Wood availability in GermanyHardwood Potentials 2008-2012

There are regional potentials to increase the availability of Hardwood.

./. Holzwerkstoffindustrie 3,2 Mio. m³

Rest Potenzial 6,0 Mio. m³

Potenzial Laubindustrieholz 13,3 Mio. m³./. Hausbrand 2,3 Mio. m³

0,4 Mio. m³./. Biomasseheizkraftwerke

./. Papier-/Zellstoffindustrie 1,4 Mio. m³

CH

A

CZ

PL

DK

NL

B

F

Rohstoffbedarfe an Lb-IL [Tsd. m³]Grau: Standorte in Nachbarländern

VerbleibendesPotenzial (m³/ha)*

* Potenzial in m³/ha Gesamtfläche Wald + Nichtwald

Quelle: Pöyry



VerbleibendesWaldrestholz-Potenzial(m³/ha)**

CH

A

CZ

PL

DK

NL

B

F

Anlagen auf Basis von Gebrauchtholz

Biomasseheiz(kraft)werke> 50 Tsd. t JahresbedarfWaldrestholzbedarfe in Tsd. m³

Rest Potenzial 25,7 Mio. m³/a

Potenzial Waldrestholz 30,4 Mio. m³/a./. Hausbrand 1,7 Mio. m³/a

0,6 Mio. m³/a./. BMHKW < 50 Tsd. t/a*

2,4 Mio. m³/a./. BMHKW > 50 Tsd. t/a

50 - 99 Tsd. t 100 Tsd. t

* jährlicher Brennstoffbedarf** Potenzial in m³/ha Gesamtfläche Wald + Nichtwald

Wood availability in GermanyForest residues Potentials 2008-2012

Forest residues have the highest potential for increased utilization. Establishment of tailored supply chains has already started with different intensity depending on regions and ownership structures.

Quelle: Pöyry



Wood availability in Germany

Quelle: Verändert nach Thrän, D., et al. Deutsches Biomasse ForschungsZentrum, S.252 (2009) Biomassekonkurrenzen www.dbfz.de

Estimations result in a wood deficit of approx. 32 Mio. m³ in 2020. Without taking 2nd generation biofuels into account, the deficit would be approx. 20 Mio. m³.



Wood availability in GermanyKey driver for the allocation of woody biomass will be the paying capabilities of the industries (pulp/paper/panels vs. energy). Increasing costs for energy will strengthen the paying capability for energetic use and parallel decrease the paying capability for industrial use.

Pöyry Modell der Zahlungsfähigkeit für Industrie-/Energieholz

[Illustratives Modell]



Wood price developmentSzenario 1: Development of wood supply and price 2010 - 2020:Increased demand of woody biomass for energy and industry results in a higher supply. Investments are realized and price increases.

Price

Cumulative Volume

2010

2020



Wood price developmentSzenario 2: Development of wood supply and price 2010 - 2020:Increased demand of woody biomass for energy and industry does not result in substantial higher supply. Investments are not realized and price stagnates.

2010/2020

Price

Cumulative Volume



Summary of wood availability

Global economic crisis has reduced the demand of industrial wood only for a short term. Energy wood demand has increased steadily.

Increased demand for industrial and energy wood will lead to a supply gap in Germany and Europe

Possibilities for the increase of wood availability: Increased utilization of forest residues (added value for forest owners and forest service companies) Improved harvesting regimes to tackle climate change Establishment of energy crops in agriculture Avoid further restrictions in forest utilization

Summary

Examples for increased wood availability



Examples to increase wood availability

Quelle: Mantau: Holz als Energieträger, DFWR-Workshop „Bioenergie – Holz als Energieträger“, 2006; Annahmen: Pöyry

Mobilisation of harvesting reserves would result in substantial increase of wood availability.

Potentials [Mio. m³]Mobilisation rate

(Estimation)

Utilization of

increment

Roundwood > 7 cm66%

7,8

100%

11,8

Forest residues < 7 cm50%

9,8

100%

19,6

Needles and leaves10%

0,6

100%

6,0

Sum 18,2 Mio. m³ 37,4 Mio. m³

Harvesting potentials in Germany




Felling

ForwardingStorage Chipping &

Loading

Transport

Storage

Integration of forest residue harvesting in the industrial wood supply chain.

Quelle: VTT




Quelle: Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010

Mapping of sensible forest stand should avoid negative impacts on nutrients availability in the forest stands.




Intensivied thinnings result in higher potentials





Typical harvesting regimes concentrate on traditional concepts





Additional harvesting of „indifferent“ trees.





Result of intensivied thinnings (~+30 % volume).

Quelle: Verändert nach Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010

Ergebnis der Maßnahme




Spruce stands can be a attractive capital allocation. Additionally risks of climatic change are tackeled and mixed standes can be funded.

Indicative calculation of IRR of forest investments (example spruce stands)

Quelle: Beinhofer u. Knoke. AFZ/Der Wald 2/2007.

Avg. AgeCapital

employed (€/ha)1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

50 5.353 289 236 182 128 75

80 11.017 266 156 46 - 64 -174

100 13.332 227 94 - 40 - 173 - 306

140 15.825 119 - 39 - 197 - 356 - 514

Internal rate of return (€/ha*a) after interests



Conclusion

Tackling climate change and added value from forests

by utililzation of an extended resource base in Europe!



Dr. Hubert Röder Pöyry Forest Industry ConsultingTel: +49 8161 4806 85Email: [email protected]

Wood availability in Germany and Europe Status and Trends

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