Wolfgang fischer applications
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Transcript of Wolfgang fischer applications
• In 2012, an LTE connection generated 19x more traffic than a non‐4G connection
• Wireless networks on licensed spectrum alone will not be able to cope with this anticipated traffic growth
Traffic offload via small cells (e.g., WiFi hotspots, Femtocells, ...) to wireline network
44 4154 48 48 54
16 1812 15 15
1619 19 15 17 17
1421 22 20 20 20 15
US Canada UK Germany France Italy
In transit
Office
Location of Mobile Internet UsePercentage of Total Time Spent in Activity
Home
Other indoorlocation
80%IndoorUse
Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2011, Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2012–2017
Consequences of mobile traffic growth
Content and Applications drive increase in network consumption
+ +2007 2011 2016
Internet Users
Devices19B IP‐enabled devices by
2016
Users3.4B Internet users by 2016
ApplicationsVideo: 85% of Internet
traffic by 2016
= TRAFFIC EXPLOSION
Traffic explosion is driven by phenomenal increase in number of users, devices and applications
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Peta
byte
s / M
onth
OtherFile Sharing (Other)Web/Data (Other)Web/Data (Video)File Sharing (Video)IP Video on DemandInternet Video
11%
6%
39%
1%
22%
19%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016
30% CAGR 2011–2016
2%
86%Video
Consumer IP traffic increasingly driven by video
FTTH is vital for service evolution
DRIVES
New Services
New Revenues New Devices
Network upgrade
Content & Applications Bandwidth
ENABLES
Transfor‐mation
Stimulates Innovation
Next generation services examples
IP Telephony
Free Nat’l Calls
Free Int’l Calls
CommercialFMC
RichVoice
TVVideophony
IPTV
VoD
User Shared‐TV
Web 2.0On TV
TV on PC
Web on TV
TerminalVideophony Traffic
Information
HomeSurveilance
HomeMonitoring E‐Health
RemoteElderlyCare
E‐AdministrationIntegratedFMC
Widespread
Growing
EmergingCatch‐Up
TV
E‐Education
InteractiveTV Content
Envisaged
Home Tech SupportCloud Computing
QoS GuaranteeHome Network Mg’t Up to 100/100 HSI
Up to 50/20 HSI Wireless
DVR
All HD
HD
AdvancedEPG
ExclusiveContent
3D‐TV
Apps on TV(Open STB APIs)
LAN Router
Child Protection
Entertainment services
Communication services
Enabling services
Wider‐economy services
Movies, music, 3D/HD/immersive TV, on‐
line gaming, home working, FMC
File transfer File transfer
Photos,videos Data back‐ups Transfer X‐rays, film
distribution
Enhanced interactivity, home management, cloud
computing
HD video conf., cloud computing,collaboration
HD video help‐desk, connected elderly, remote health, intelligent power
grid
UPSTREAM +DOWNSTREAM
DOWNSTREAM
Bandwidth requirements for next gen services
UPSTREAM
FTTH
CONSUMERCONSUMER BUSINESSBUSINESS VERTICALSVERTICALS
Bitrate requirements in 2025
Source: WIK study – Market potential for high‐speed broadband connections in Germany in the year 2025 (2012)
Application category Downstream (Mbps)
Upstream (Mbps)
Packet loss Latency
Basic Internet 12 10 o o
Home office / VPN 100 100 + +
Cloud computing 100 100 + ++
Media and entertainment HD/3D 30 6 ++ +
Media and entertainment Ultra‐HD 60 12 ++ +
Communication 2 2 ++ +
Video communication HD 25 25 ++ ++
Gaming 10 5 ++ ++
E‐Health 8 8 ++ +
E‐Home / E‐Facility 8 8 o o
Mobile Services / WiFi‐Offloading 12 10 o o
Market requirements in Germany in 2025
Type Bitrate rqmt Numbers Fraction
Top Level Plus > 350Mbps ds> 320Mbps us
6.8M households300k enterprises
15.9%
Top Level 200...300Mbps ds170...280Mbps us
12.3M households 27.7%
Medium Level 70...150Mbps ds60...140Mbps us
13.3M households2.7M enterprises
35.9%
Low Level < 60Mbps ds< 50Mbps us
4.3M households590k enterprises
10.9%
No Internet usage 4.3M households 9.7%
Source: WIK study – Market potential for high‐speed broadband connections in Germany in the year 2025 (2012)
Technical & physical limitiations in traditional networks
Content rich apps challenge long loop copper lines
Packet aggregation
Limited radio spectrum
Limited radio spectrum
Long copper cables limit high bitrate applicationsLong copper cables limit high bitrate applications
Aggregation network is oversubscribed
Aggregation network is oversubscribed
Cloud Computing requires high peak
bitrate
Cloud Computing requires high peak
bitrate
Streaming (video) as well as user
interactivity require low latency
Streaming (video) as well as user
interactivity require low latency
Where’s the consumer demand? Right here!
There is no demand issue, but the market takes time to develop
The main influence on take-up rate is how long a FTTH service provider has been in operation.
This finding was independent of service provider strategy, and whether pricing was aggressive or premium
Demand follows service availability – the infrastructure cannot be deployed everywhere simultaneously!Source: Diffraction Analysis for FTTH Council Europe, NGA Services Study, 2012
Next Gen Services Value Proposition
10Mb/s
50Mb/s
+100Mb/sBusiness Cloud computing
Consumer Cloud computing
Consumer video Communication
Ubiquitous FMC
Games
Home management
NG TV
Biz video communication
Connected elderly
Telcos SP? (e.g. Google, Amazon, ..) Municipalities/Utilities
Business Cloud computing
Consumer Cloud computing
NG TV
Games
Home management
Connected elderly
Video communication
Smart grid
Legend: ConnectivityConnectivity +systems Full service
SIZE= Addressablesubscriber base
View 2012‐2015