Wold Sulphuric Forecast

8/20/2019 Wold Sulphuric Forecast

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Global Sulphur Market Outlook

Dr. Peter Harrisson

Consultant, Sulphur and Sulphuric acid

t: +44 207 903 2249

e: [email protected]


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Discussion overview

Global Market Overview

Forecast to 2017

Supply Overview

North America

Middle East CIS

China

Demand Overview

Phosphates

Nickel Leaching

Balance

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Recovered(Oil/Oilsands)

48%

Recovered(Gas)49%

Recovered(Other)

2%

Mined1%

2012 Sulphur Production

79,483,5 85,4

0

20

40

60

80

100

m i l l i o n t o n n e s S / S - e q u i v a l e n t

Global SAF Supply

Sulphur SOF Pyrites

Sulphur-in-All-Forms (SAF) supply dominated by

involuntary production

Brimstone(64%)

Smelter acid (SOF) (29%)

Voluntary production - Pyrites (7%)

Oil and gas are main brimstone sources (97%)

Other (coal gasification, etc.) (2%)

Mined sulphur (1%)

Phosphates OutlookA healthy market on the horizon?

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80,083,2 85,00

0

20

40

60

80

100

m i l l i o n t o n n e s S / S

- e q u i v a l e n t

Global Sulphur Demand

Phosphoric Acid Ammonium Sulphate SSP Metals Leaching Non-Acid Industrial Acid

SAF demand dominated by fertilizer production

Phosphoric acid, SSP, Ammonium Sulphate (56%)

Base metals production and industrial uses also important (32%)


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-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

m i l l i o n t o n n e s

Global Sulphur Balance

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

U S $ / t

Sulphur Price Developments

ADNOCmonthly

Vancouver fob(contract)

Sulphur Balance and Prices

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Al l quanti ties in mil lion tonnes* Full year estimates

Exports

Imports

5.6

Canada

1.8

USA

10.0

Middle East

6.2

CIS

1.1

Japan

2.6

Europe

2.1

10.9

3.8

2.9

1.0

1.8

1.1

Key Sulphur trade routes (2012*)Total trade 31 million tonnes

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0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

t h o u s a n d t o

n n e s

Russia Middle East Europe ROW

Quarterly Moroccan sulphur imports by origin, 2011 - 2012

Moroccan quarterly sulphur importsDown by 40% y-o-y

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SUPPLY FORECAST TO 2017

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9

52.8

72.9

0

20

40

60

80

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


USA Canada Russia China Saudi Arabia UAE Kazakhstan Rest of the World

Global sulphur production by country, 2011 - 2017

Global sulphur supply outlook, 2011 -2017


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10

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

South East Asia

Western Europe

Central Europe

Africa

South Asia

Central America

South America

North America

East Asia

CIS

Middle East

Million tonnes

Oil sands Mined sulphur Gas Oil Other

Global incremental changes to supply by source, 2012 - 2017

Global sulphur supply outlook, 2011 -2017


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Regional Product ion stable at 15 Mt/y

United States of America

Sulphur output to grow by 1.2 Mt

Increases from oil refining activities

(majority of production in PADD 3)

Canada

Alberta gas fields depleting

British Colombia production stable (0.8 Mt/y)

Increases from Alberta oil sands (+0.8 Mt)

Destocking in Oil sands region would be high cost

Vancouver

Edmonton

Calgary

Fort McMurry

PADD 3

British

Colombia Alberta

Houston

2000 2010Total 12.3 Mt Total 11.7 Mt

71%

29%

21%

79%

Gas Plants Oil Sands

Alberta Stocks

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North American sulphur supply, 2011 -2017

Tampa


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Middle East sulphur supply, 2011 -2017

Qatar2011 – 2.0 Mt/y

2017 – 2.8 Mt/y

Iran

2011 – 1.7 Mt/y

2017 – 2.1 Mt/y

UAE

2011 – 2.2 Mt/y

2017 – 6.0 Mt/y

Saudi Arabia

2011 – 3.5 Mt/y

2017 – 6.7 Mt/y


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CIS +4.3 Mt (2011-2016)New producers are the key to growth

Russia

5.8 Mt to 6.8 Mt (20112017)

Output from gas stable at 5.8 Mt/y (2011)

Norilsk Nickel producing 1.0 Mt/y (2016-17)

Kazakhstan

Tengiz to produce 2.3 Mt/y

Kashagan expected on-stream (mid-2013)

1.2 Mt/y by 2016

Turkmenistan

South Yolotan on-stream (2013)

2.6 Mt/y by 2016

Norilsk

Kashagan

Tengiz

South Yolotan

Astrakhan

Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan

Russia

2011 2017

6 . 8

5 . 6

2011 2017

3 . 5

2 . 3

2011 2017 2 . 4 0

. 2

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China sulphur supply, 2011 -2017Sichuan gas fields drive sulphur production growth

0

2

4

6

8


Other Regions (combined) Eastern Region South Western Region

FORECAST

Sichuan Gas


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DEMAND FORECAST TO 2017

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Africa

Middle East

Asia

South America

Morocco

1.6 Mt/y

Tunisia 0.1

Mt/yAlgeria

0.3 Mt/ySaudi

Arabia

0.6 Mt/y

Jordan

0.5 Mt/y

Vietnam

0.1 Mt/y

India

0.2 Mt/y

China

0.6 Mt/y

Brazil

0.8 Mt/y

Venezuela

0.1 Mt/y

Phosphoric Acid Capacity Growth (2011 - 2017)

Million tonnes P2O5

Morocco

OCP Jorf Phosphate Hub expansions

Total sulphur demand 5.0 Mt/y by 2017

Saudi Arabia

Further expansion at Ma’aden

Total 1.7 Mt/y sulphur demand by 2017

Brazil

Salitre (2013) 0.3 Mt/y sulphur demand

Expansion at Catalao (+0.1Mt) from 2013

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170

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2010 2011 2012 2015 2017

t h o u s a n d t o n n e s

Minara Resources (Australia)

Moa Nickel (Cuba)

VNC (New Caledonia)

Ambatovy (Madagascar)

Ravensthorpe (Australia)

Highlands Pacific (Papua New Guinea)

Acoje (Phi li pp ines)

Sulphur demand from 0.6 Mt to 3.0 Mt (2011

2017)

Annual nickel leach demand growth ~0.4Mt/y vs. annual sulphur supply growth ~4.0Mt/y

Nickel Leaching OutlookNew markets for sulphur exporters


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SULPHUR B ALANCE TO 2017

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-4

-2

0

2

4


Global Sulphur Balance 2010 - 2017

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Global Market

Supply growth to outpace demand growth

New production dominated by Middle East and FSU

Delays less likely as large projects move closer to commissioning

Demand growth

Phosphate demand will recover from 2013

Nickel leaching demand is strong but growth is not unlimited

Sulphur balance will move into surplus Producers will need to withhold product from the market

But which producers will act?

Global oversupply is coming; can demand catch up?

Conclusions


21/22

Dr. Peter Harrisson

Consultant, Sulphur and Sulphuric acid

t: +44 207 903 2249

e: [email protected]


22/22

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Wold Sulphuric Forecast

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