WoF Modeling Meeting 2/4/13 1 William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center...

WoF Modeling Meeting 2/4/13 1

William. M. LapentaActing Director

Environmental Modeling Center

NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Geoff DiMego , John Derber , Yuejian Zhu , Hendrik Tolman , Vijay Tallapragada, Shrinivas Moorthi , Mike Ek , Mark Iredell , Suru Saha

NCEP

The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance System:

Meeting the WoF and WRN Challenge

AMS Future of the Weather Enterprise 11/27/12

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction: “A Game Changer”

2

A.K.A.—the new building….• Four-story, 268,762 square foot

building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors

• 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC)

• NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR)

• NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB)• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Includes 465 seat auditorium & conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

• Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists

• Represents a “Game Changer” in our ability to do business

WoF Modeling Meeting 2/4/13

NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission

– Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAARelated to ability to meet service-based metrics (below)

– National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics

(* Government Performance & Results Act)Hurricane Track and Intensity Winter Storm WarningPrecipitation Threat Flood WarningMarine Wind Speed and Wave Height

– Customer Service ProviderOperational numerical guidance provides foundational tools

used by Government, public and private industry to Improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth

3

Lead Time and

Accuracy!


DRAFT Storm Prediction Center Potential Products and Services

2015 2017 2022•Probabilistic Outlooks of Tornado, Severe Hail, and Severe Wind hazard types extended to Day 2

•Probabilistic Outlooks of Tornado, Severe Hail, and Severe Wind Hazard Types Extended to Day 3

•Probabilistic Outlooks of Tornado, Severe Hail, and Severe Wind hazard types extended to Day 7

•Day 1 Probabilistic Outlooks of Tornado, Severe Hail, and Severe Wind Hazards for 4-hr periods

•Probabilistic Outlooks of Tornado, Severe Hail, and Severe Wind Hazards for 4-hr Periods extended to Day 2

•Probabilistic Outlooks of Tornado, Severe Hail, and Severe Wind Outlooks for 4-hr Periods Extended to Day 3

•Probabilistic Short-Term Forecasts of Tornado and Significant Tornado Hazards issued every 2-4 hrs

•Hourly Updated, Short Term Probability Forecasts for Tornado, Severe Hail, Severe Wind, and Significant Severe Hazards to support transition to continuously evolving public severe weather watches

•Seasonal Severe Weather Outlooks (with CPC)

•Hourly Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlooks issued every 2 hours, including “dry” lightning conditions critical to wild fire initiation

•Week 2 and Monthly Severe Weather Outlooks (with CPC)

Potential Operational Products and Services


DRAFT Storm Prediction Center Desired Numerical Guidance Attributes

2015 2017 2022•North America Short-Range Mesoscale Ensemble: 12-15 km ~30 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC ensemble with EnKF/hybrid DA, run every 6 hrs with forecasts to 84 hrs

•North America Short-Range Mesoscale Ensemble: 12-15 km ~40 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC ensemble with EnKF/hybrid or newer-state-of-the-art DA, run every 6 hrs with forecasts to Day 4*

•Global Mesoscale Ensemble Forecast System: 10-12 km global domain 40-50 member ensemble with advanced state-of-the-science DA, run every 6 hrs with forecasts to Day 7-10*

•CONUS Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF): 4 km CONUS ~10 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid DA, issued every 6-hrs with forecasts to 48-60 hrs*

•CONUS Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF): 3 km CONUS ~15 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid or newer state-of-the-art DA, issued every 6-hrs with forecasts to 48-60 hrs*

•CONUS SSEF: 2 km CONUS 30-50 member multi-model/multi-physics/multi-IC storm scale ensemble with advanced state-of-the-science DA, issued every 6-hrs with forecasts to 48-60 hrs*

•Movable domain update SSEF: 2-3 km movable regional domain ~7 member storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid run every 2-4 hrs with forecasts to 15-18 hrs*, focused on “severe weather of the day” areas

•Movable domain update SSEF: 2 km movable regional domain 10-15 member storm scale ensemble with EnKF/hybrid or newer state-of-the-art DA ,run every 1-2 hrs with forecasts to 18-24 hrs*, focused on “severe weather of the day” areas

•Movable domain update SSEF: 1 km movable regional domain 20-30 member storm scale ensemble with advanced state-of-the-science DA run every 1 hr with forecasts to 18-24 hrs*, focused on “severe weather of the day” areas

•Stormscale 3D Analysis: 4 km EnKF/hybrid DA, CONUS storm scale analysis updated every 1-hr.

•Stormscale 3D Analysis: 2 km EnKF/hybrid or newer state-of-the-art DA, CONUS storm scale analysis updated every 15 min

•Stormscale 3D Analysis: 2 km EnKF/hybrid or newer state-of-the-art DA, CONUS storm scale analysis updated every 5 min

•Appropriate RAP (HRRR), Global deterministic / ensemble, and CFS capacities

•Appropriate RAP (HRRR), Global deterministic / ensemble, and CFS capacities

•Stretch Goal - Warn-on-Forecast Prototype Ensemble: Develop <1 km multi-WFO domain 10-20 member nested SSEF, advanced state-of-the science DA, run as needed every 5-10 min with forecasts to 1-2 hrs*

*Model and data assimilation (DA) complexity will be impacted strongly by High Performance Computing capabilities.

Desired Attributes of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance System

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• Inside every HRRRE member• Movable domain update SSEF: • 1 km movable regional domain • 20-30 member storm scale ensemble • advanced state-of-the-science DA • run every 1 hr with forecasts to 18-24 hr• focused on “severe weather of the day”

areas

AFWA NWP 11 Sept 2012

Plans for a National Mesoscale Ensemble System

• Convergence of NAM, RAP, HRRR and SREF between 2016 and 2018

• System must meet requirements of today and future

– Provide NextGen Enroute AND terminal guidance – Provide PROBABILITY guidance with full Probability

Density Function specified– Address Warn-on-Forecast as resolutions evolve

towards ~1 km

• Core elements– Common data assimilation system– Code Infrastructure and management system

• Potential Attributes of the North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE)

– Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours– Control data assimilation cycles with 3 hour pre-

forecast period– 84 hr forecasts are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z, &

18z runs

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7

Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMNMMBGFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMWRF NMMB

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Refreshfor Aviation

Climate ForecastSystem

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s OperationalNumerical Guidance Suite

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

7

Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern

Gulf of Mex• Columbia R.

Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

ENLIL

Regi

onal

DA

Sea Nettle

Forecast

7


Nu

mb

er

of

No

de

s

High Water Mark 2010

24-h Snapshot 20 August 2012

Time of Day (UTC)

00 06 12 18 00

Numerical Guidance Suite Execution on the Operational NOAA Supercomputer

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CFS NAM GFSGEFS SREF


Operational Compute Resource Consumption (%) by Component

Per

cen

t o

f To

tal

CP

U

Numerical Guidance System Component

• Statistics accumulated over a 24-h period

• Total 64.9% of production machine

• NAM, CFS and SREF compose 29.7% of production

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Global Data AssimilationSystem Upgrade

• Hybrid system– Most of the impact comes from this

change– Uses ensemble forecasts to help

define background error

• NPP (ATMS) assimilated– Quick use of data 7 months after

launch

• Use of GPSRO Bending Angle rather than refractivity– Allows use of more data (especially

higher in atmos.)– Small positive impacts

• Satellite radiance monitoring code– Allows quicker awareness of problems (run

every cycle)– Monitoring software can automatically detect

many problems

• Partnership between research and operations– (NASA/GMAO, NOAA/ESRL, Univ OK, and

NOAA/NCEP)

• Consolidation across systems– Unify operational data assimilation system

for global, regional and hurricane applications

– Cost effective—O&M– Configuration management

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Implemented 22 May 2012


NCEP Closing the International GapJune, July, August 500hPa Geopotential RMSE

NCEP achieved significant improvement in 2012 for day 3 and beyond

NCEP is now similar to UKMO skill in this metric and AC

Meteo-FrCMCNCEPUKMOECMWF

2011 2012

Solid line lower than dashed indicates improvement between 2011 and 2012

NCEP Only System to show improvement between 2011 and 2012


Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation(GSI) Data Assimilation System

Unified variational data assimilation (DA) system• Global and regional applications• Weather and climate

Operational system being used by • NOAA (GFS, NAM, RTMA, HWRF, RAP…)• NASA (GMAO global) • AFWA (Testing in progress)

Distributed development:• NCEP/EMC, NASA/GMAO, NOAA/ESRL, NCAR/MMM, …

A community code used in NOAA operations and research• Supported by NCEP, NASA, DTC• Disciplined code management policy and procedures required to

incorporate changes across user organizations

http://www.dtcenter.org/com-GSI/users/index.php


Goals of Community GSI Efforts

Provide current operational GSI capabilities to the research community (O2R)

Provide a framework for distributed development of new capabilities & advances in data assimilation

Provide a pathway for data assimilation research to operations process (R2O)

Provide rational basis to operational centers and research community for enhancement of data assimilation systems


Adding New Analysis Variables to GSI

• No longer a difficult procedureo Thanks to GSI Bundle infrastructure (via NCEP/NASA

collaboration)

• Generalized structure for analysis, guess, state, and control variableso e.g., hydrometeors, vertical velocity, double moment

microphysics variables, etc.

• Control through table in the anavinfo file

• Greatly reduces the number of routines needed to be modified• Modify table(s) + possible additional model I/O steps +

observation ingest + forward operator + background error• Can also disable the conventional large-scale balance

constraints present in the NMC derived background errors


North America Model (NAM)• Implemented 18 October 2011• NEMS based NMM• Outer grid at 12 km to 84hr• Multiple Nests Run to ~60hr

– 4 km CONUS nest– 6 km Alaska nest– 3 km HI & PR nests– 1.3km DHS/FireWeather/IMET (to

36hr)

Rapid Refresh (RAP)• Implemented 1 May 2012• WRF-based ARW• Use of GSI analysis• Expanded 13 km Domain to

include Alaska• Experimental 3 km HRRR

RUC-13 CONUS domain

WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010

Original CONUS domain

Experimental 3 km HRRR

NOAA Operational MesoscaleModeling for CONUS:


Numerical Guidance to Support a NWS Operational Warn on Forecast Capability

S. Lord – NWS/OST

and

NCEP/EMC Staff

V4.0


Introduction

• Goal: field an operational, credible and skillful WoF capability by 2025

• Combines forecast requirements for– NWS severe weather forecasts and warnings– Aviation (NEXTGEN)– Daily general weather guidance to 3 days, including QPF

• Closely allied with Hurricane forecast technology (HFIP)

• Effort exceeds decade-long development and implementation cycle– Current operational system provides look at the future pieces– Incremental system development provides a risk-managed path for operations– With sustained development of the operational pieces, and sufficient HPC, NOAA (OAR and NWS) can

achieve the WoF goal• Development of operational systems provides enhancement and generalized capabilities to incorporate R&D and

improve capabilities (including forecast skill)• Improved skill must be documented with appropriate performance measures (TBD)

• HPC capability growth is essential to meet goal– Adequate resolution for predicting high impact weather events poses largest operational HPC

requirements• Forecast model• Data assimilation• Ensemble & postprocessing system

– Advanced nature of severe weather problem requires larger ratio of R&D HPC to operational HPC– Constant $$ HPC growth and new technology (e.g. GPU, MIC, etc) will be necessary but insufficient


International Thrust – UKMO 2014

Model Resolution (km)

Forecast Length

Frequency (Members)

Other details

UK 1.5 36 8 3d var

UK ensemble 2.2 36 4(12) Global perturbed boundaries and init. Conditions

Global 17 14472

22

Hybrid 4-d Var

Global Ensemble

33 72 4(12) ETKF with Stochastic Physics

• UK is a very small country!– Area covers approximately Fire Wx nest (next slide)– Weather events less diverse– Regional high resolution NWP is more affordable computationally

• US global system (planned for 2014) has comparable resolution – SL T1148 (17 km)– Hybrid DA (27 km ensemble) enhances skill to comparability with UKMO

• US regional system lags in operational implementation (due to HPC constraints) but not technology level


Global Continental Local Nesting Strategy

• Discussion items– Nesting necessary to save computing; current NAM domain could be expanded to global 10 km– Advantages/disadvantages of same model for global and regional– Applicability (DA) of a multi-model ensemble-based covariance estimate with multiple bias characteristics– Data assimilation at resolution of 3 km or less poses challenges

• Advanced assimilation of radar reflectivity• Consistent integration of radar and satellite info• Proper dynamically balanced analysis increments at multiple high resolution scales (10, 3, 1 km) to minimize

spin-up/spin-down and maximize evolution of nascent disturbances


Numerical Guidance Attributes (1)• Analysis and uncertainty products

– Hourly refresh but sub-hourly for rapidly changing observables (reflectivity, hydrometeors, wind shear)

– 1 km resolution for rapidly changing observables– Hybrid analysis provides analysis uncertainty information and ensemble perturbations– Multi-model ensemble-based background (technology not developed)– Analysis variables

• Surface (sensible wx) variables• Clouds• Radar reflectivity, hydrometeors• 3-D atmosphere• Aerosols• Skin temperature• Precipitation amount and hydrometeors• Land & hydrology• Eventual coupled system to add marine & coastal analysis (waves, water level, water quality)

– Products support forecaster Situational Awareness (SA)• MRMS products are an initial capability• Enhancement to Rapidly Updating Analysis (RUA)

– Combines obs. from» Radar» Satellite» In situ

– Expands to hydrological and coastal marine domain– Provides best and consistent geophysical picture from all available information

– Catchup cycle for late data produces “Analysis of Record” for verification


Numerical Guidance Attributes (2)

• Initialized from hourly analysis• Evolved through RAP, HRRR & NAM development

– North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE)– High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE)

• 1-way nested– Technology available in NAM as prototype– 1 km resolution where needed– Ensemble-based probabilistic products support

• Severe convective weather (incl. tornado environment)• Aviation and surface transportation• Landfalling hurricanes• Flash floods

– Eventual support for• Storm surge• Waves• Water quality

• High resolution analysis and nested forecast system provide consistency between real-time SA and forecast evolution


Current Ops (NAM-RR) 2025 WoF Ops

Parent Domain North America (NA) Global

Nested domains 4 children (CONUS, AK, HA, PR-H)1 grandchild (Fire Wx)

Same children (4)Grandchildren (27) - Fire Wx (2) - WoF (5) - Fixed airport (20)

Resolution 12-13 km (NA) 4 km CONUS, 6 km AK, 3 km HA, PR-H 1 km Fire Wx (grandchild)

10 km Global3 km children1 km grandchildren

Analysis update 6 hourly (NA)1 hour CONUS

3-6 hour (global)1 hour (child, grandchild)

Ensemble NA: Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF, 21 members, 16 km)

Global: GEFS (30 members, 10 km)Child: 30 members, 3 kmG’child: 20 members, 1 km

Fcst length & frequency Parent: 4X/day to 84 h (NA)Child: 4X/day 60 h (child)G’child; 4X/day to 36 h

Global Parent: 4X/day to 240 h at full resolutionChild: 4X/day to 84 h; 20X/day to 36 hG’child: 4X/day to 36 h; 20X/day to 6 h

Data Assimilation 3-D Var Parent, Child: 4-D Hybrid (Var-EnKF)G’child: 3-D Hybrid (or more, if affordable)

Assimilated variables Primarily atmosphere Atmosphere, cloud, radar reflectivity& hydrometeors, aerosol, skin T, land & hydrology

Rapid Update Analysis (RUA) Hourly Surface (Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis, RTMA) 2-D fields at 2.5 km

5 min, 1 km 3-D RUA for clouds, radar reflectivity, 1 km 2-D quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) & surface products; hourly 3-D atmosphere at 2.5 km; land & hydrology,

Required computing capability

1 Global: 670 XChild: 1734 XG’child: 2373 X

Warn on Forecast (WoF) System Comparison Summary


Current Ops (NAM-RR) 2025 WoF Ops

Required computing capability

1 Global: 670 XChild: 1734 XG’child: 2373 X

System Evolution

Expected computing Xfactor

2013 2015 2018 2021 2024

2.3 4 5 3 3Cumulative 2.3 9.2 46 138 414

HPC GapsEst. HPC

Req. HPC

Ratio Notes

Global 414 670 1.6 SL can mitigate gap

Child 1734 4.2 1) system too ambitious OR 2) add’l HPC cycles

G’child 2373 5.7


Runtime & optimal node apportionment for operationalNMMB nesting with a Fire Wx nest over CONUS (72 nodes)

3 km Puerto Rico nest 3/72 or 4%

1.33 km CONUS FireWx nest 12/72 or 17%

4 km CONUS nest 40/72 or 56%

24

3 km Hawaii nest 4/72 or 5%

12 km parent 8/72 or 11%

6 km Alaska nest 5.72 or 7%

1-way nests solved simultaneouslyWRF-NMM

takes 3.6 times longer than

NEMS-NMMB to run

Fire Wx nest

Increased nest

capability by adding

processors!


Summary

• Ensemble-based probabilistic guidance for WoF is a major challenge– Scientific development– Demonstration of system capabilities

• Current operational capabilities can provide basis for future system– But many changes necessary in response to R&D needs and

results• HPC is second major challenge

– Prototype system exceeds planned availability by factor of 4-6• R&D may suggest compromises and where to spend HPC

resources to achieve required skill affordably


Supplementaries


2015-2016

North American Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE (NARRE)

• NMMB (from NCEP) & ARW (from ESRL) dynamic cores• Common use of NEMS infrastructure and GSI analysis• Common NAM parent domain at 10-12 km• Initially ~6 member ensemble made up of equal numbers

of NMMB- & ARW-based configurations• Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours• NMMB & ARW control data assimilation cycles with 3-6 hr

pre-forecast period (catch-up) with hourly updating• NAM & SREF 84 hr forecasts are extensions of the 00z,

06z, 12z, & 18z runs – for continuity sake.– SREF will be at same 10-12 km resolution as NARRE by then– SREF will have 21 members plus 6 from NARRE for total of 27

• NARRE requires an increase in current HPCC funding

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DiMego


2017-2018High Resolution Rapid Refresh

ENSEMBLE (HRRRE)• Each member of NARRE contains 3 km nests

– CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii & Puerto Rico/Hispaniola nests– The two control runs initialized with radar data & other hi-res obs

• This capability puts NWS/NCEP[+OAR/ESRL] in a position to – Provide NextGen Enroute AND Terminal guidance (FWIS-like)– Provide PROBABILITY guidance with full Probability Density Function

specified, hence uncertainty information too– Provide a vehicle to improve assimilation capabilities using hybrid

(EnKF+4DVar) technique with current & future radar & satellite– Address Warn-on-Forecast as resolutions evolve towards ~1 km

• NAM nests are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z & 18Z runs.• HRRRE requires an increase in HPCC funding over

and above that required for the NARRE

DiMego

WoF Modeling Meeting 2/4/13 1 William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center...

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