Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and...

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Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest form of learning. ….Tony Schwartz The medium is the message. ….Marshall McLuhan William H. Graves SVP, Academic Strategy, Ellucian Board of Governors, Antioch University Retired Professor, UNC-Chapel Hill www.institutionalperformance.typepad.com Student Success Global Success Institutio nal Success National Success Nov 3, 2022 The cloud is the message. IMS ellucian Humanity’s Challenge to Education Scale Up and Sustain Social, Environmental, Economic, and Educational Justice Educational Attainment Educational Justice

Transcript of Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and...

Page 1: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s

Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells

Education is the slowest form of learning. ….Tony Schwartz

The medium is the message. ….Marshall McLuhan

William H. GravesSVP, Academic Strategy, Ellucian

Board of Governors, Antioch UniversityRetired Professor, UNC-Chapel Hill

www.institutionalperformance.typepad.com

StudentSuccess

GlobalSuccess

InstitutionalSuccess

NationalSuccess

Apr 18, 2023The cloud is the message.IMSellucianHumanity’s Challenge to Education

Scale Up and Sustain Social, Environmental, Economic, and Educational Justice

Educational Attainment ≈ Educational Justice

Page 2: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Education vs. Catastrophe Education vs. CatastropheGlobal / Local Puzzle

Think globally,act locally, but …

All things are interconnected!

Catastrophehas the lead!

Education is key!

Credentialing is acommon good forall of its investors.

Page 3: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Policy Perspectives

Scale up educational attainment.

Scale up educational attainment.Improve annual credentialing rates.

Improve annual credentialing rates.

Make credentialing affordable to all beneficiaries.

Make credentialing affordable to all beneficiaries.

Policy Perspectives

The Attainment ChallengeScale up the proportion of adults with postsecondary credentials.

Barriers to Scaling UpThe education pipeline is leaky.Economic demographics imply that a growing percentage of low-income students will require needs-tested financial aid.The growing need for financial aid will make credentialing unaffordable to more students, governments, and educational institutions.There is no evidence that local successes will add up to global success!

Policy Conclusion

Education is too important to leave to educators.

Page 4: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Unit Costs Matter! SHEEO Fact: National average for inflation-adjusted per-student FTE state subsidies is hovering near 30-year lows.

NCHEMS Projection: By 2013, every state will suffer a structural revenue shortfall. 2013 arrived a few years ago!

Delta Cost Project: Assuming current trends for per-student E&R expenses in constant dollars, the future is disturbing!

Affordability will continue to suffer!

Unit Costs Matter!

Tuition

Other

Tuition

Other Public Higher Education

Per-Student E&R Costs

Private Higher Education

Per-Student E&R Costs

Tuition

Other

Tuition

Other

Page 5: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Economic Governance Issues

If credentialing at scale is a common good, then why do: Education providers find government funding to be inadequate,

unreliable, and intrusive? Governments find higher education unaccountable and its “credit-hours-

attempted” revenue model costly and wasteful? Needy students and families find higher education unaffordable,

inflexible, inaccessible, and “slow?”

Think like 2009 Economics Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom! Don’t leave the economic governance of a common good to

governments or other powerful interests! Be guided by Ostrom-style open economic governance models that are

so far avoiding a tragedy of the commons: Internet Society, World Wide Web Consortium, Wikipedia, ...

Possible solution: Create a global economic governance cooperative, the Education Leadership Commons, to rebalance economic rights and responsibilities among education providers and their external investors.

Economic Governance Issues

Page 6: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Education Leadership Commons

ELC

EconomicBeneficiaries

of theCredentialingMarketplace

Economic Lever = Needs-Tested, Earned Grants?

EconomicGovernance

for theCredentialingMarketplace

Global nonprofitnongovernmental

organization

Open economicgovernanceprocesses

Page 7: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Educational Justice

All people are born equal – and born to learn! Educational justice: scale up the needs-tested right to

earn a credential affordable to all invested parties.

ELC: an economic compact with three-way leverage. From birth, estimate the value of needs-tested aid to a student,

who will eventually earn that aid by participating in periodic, independent, age-appropriate core learning evaluations (OECD).

Education providers accepting students’ earned aid must account in peer groupings for credentialing productivity goals.

In return for funding needy students, governments would have rights to longitudinal data for research – data follow the student.

Educational Justice

Page 8: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Accelera

ting

exponentia

lly

into the cl

oud

Forces of Change

Forces of ChangeTechnology Acceleration

Demo-graphics & Psycho-graphics

Glo

baliz

atio

n Pu

blic Po

licy

Scale Up Educational Justice & Attainment

Increase the proportion of credentialed adults.

Increase annual credentialing rates.

Improve per-credential affordability to all parties.

Account independently for core learning.

IT-Enabled External Sourcing / Partnering

Out-sourcing Open-sourcing

In-sourcing Off-shoring

Work-flowing In-forming

Supply-chaining Mobile-ing

Globalization = Innovation = Productivity

Page 9: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

IT-Enabled Strategies

IT-Enabled Strategies

ExternalSourcing/Partnering

RedesignStrategy

FlexProgramRedesignStrategy

CommonCore

RedesignStrategy

MaximumLeverage

fromTechnology

• Increase attainment proportions.• Increase credential completion rates.

• Improve per-degree production costs.• Improve reporting and analytics.

Page 10: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Common Core Redesign

National Center for Academic Transformation pioneered course redesign in the ‘90s.

In order of enrollments, the top 20-30 courses account for enrollments totaling 40% at 4-year schools and 50% at 2-year schools.

These high-enrollment courses consume 20% to 25% of annual operating costs (because direct instructional costs are around 50%).

These courses are common (core) to all campuses. Common exams, including nationally normative learning

evaluations, are possible across all course sections. Can these courses be redesigned using IT, both to

measurably improve learning outcomes and to reduce per-enrollment costs?

Common Core Redesign

Page 11: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Core Redesign Models

Common Core Redesign Models

Supplemental U New Mexico (psychology)

U Colorado (astronomy)

Replacement Penn State (statistics)

Tallahassee CC (writing)

Emporium Virginia Tech (linear algebra)

U Alabama (pre-calculus)

Online Rio Salado CC (basic math)

U So. Mississippi (world lit)

Buffet Ohio State (statistics)

Florida Gulf Coast U (arts)

Linked Workshop Austin Peay State (math)

Ferris State

Page 12: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Core Redesign Results

Actual: Pew Trust-funded pilot involved 30 institutions, each using IT and principles of active learning to redesign a large-enrollment course. All accounted for equal or improved learning results, and reported per-enrollment cost offsets averaging 40%.

Potential: Do the math!!! A systemic effort to redesign the top 20-30 highest enrollment courses could offset 8%-10% of annual operating costs.

Common Core Redesign Results

Page 13: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Faculty Role

Faculty Role

Faculty teams are responsible for program redesign

Learning as an Expedition

Instructor-Facilitated Active Leaning

OrganizeLearning

Resources

Syllabus

course packs

faculty expertise

video lectures

leaningware

OER

GuideSelf

Learning

special projects

papers

labs

tests

tutor others

teach classes

Design & GuideActive & Social

Learning

flipped classrooms

individualized help

team projects

internships

field trips

MOOCs

Page 14: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Culture and Productivity

Culture and Productivity

CredentialingProductivity

Information Productivity

Evidence-DrivenExecutive Leadership

Individual Productivity

High-Performing Digital UtilitySatisfaction vs. CostsP

eopl

e

Tec

hnol

ogy

Met

rics

Pro

cess

es

Culture of “Satisficing”• Applications• IT mgmt. & leadership

Culture of Evidence• Assessment• Performance consulting• Performance reporting / analytics

Culture of Performance• Academic / admin process redesign• Enrollment mgmt. outsourcing• IR mgmt. outsourcing• Grant mgmt. outsourcing

External Sourcing / Partnering Strategies

Page 15: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Return on IT Investment

ROI = Accountability + Accessibility

Return on IT Investment

Expense Accountability

Affordable Accessibility

Learning Accountability Program Accountability

Flexible AccessibilityScalable Accessibility

Page 16: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

The Productivity Question

Is Yours a Culture of Productivity?

A High Productivity Institution?

Systemic Credentialing Productivity?

Random Acts of Productivity?

Progress requires• order where there is change &• change where there is order.

… Alfred North Whitehead

Page 17: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

EPS

Educational Positioning System

Education’sExternalInvestors

EducationProviders,

Credentialers

EducationLeadershipCommons

ELC ≈ EPS

• GPS-like technology for credentialing• Interoperable credentialing marketplace

• IT and data interoperability• Trust – security, authenticity, metrics

studentsfamiliesdonors

governmentsemployers

suppliers

institutionsevaluatorsprofessions

Ostrom-likeopen

cooperative

Reduce frictions and costs to expand the credentianling market!(Nobel Laureates Ronald Coase and Elinor Ostrom)

Page 18: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Profiles in Productivity

Profiles in ProductivityTennessee Board of Regents Online Degree Program

Over thirty 2- and 4-year institutions partnered to increase the tertiary credential-holding proportion of the state’s workforce.

Enabled working adults to complete previous work Increased college-going rate

Developed universal AA curriculum and many credentialing programs – all in online flex format

Current net new “profitable “enrollments of at least 16,000 Inter-institution credit- and revenue-sharing in place Externally sourced planning, development, and delivery

support Unified single ERP and single LMS several years ago

Antioch University Ph.D in Leadership and change

Course-less program Quarterly “residencies” of a few days around the nation Online high-touch individualized mentoring continuously External mentors for quality assurance and applied

learning Coursera/Antioch MOOC partnership

Antioch credit for Duke and Penn Coursera MOOCs. All parties benefit academically and financially.

Page 19: Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest.

Title Slide

Education vs. Catastrophe

Policy Perspectives

Unit Costs Matter!

Economic Governance Issues

ELC

Educational Justice

Forces of Change

IT-Enabled Strategies

Common Core Redesign

Core Redesign Models

Core Redesign Results

Faculty Role

Culture and Productivity

Return on IT Investment

The Productivity Question

EPS

Profiles in Productivity

Quotations

ellucian

Mixing and Matching

Flex Program Strategy

Redesign programs/services for flexibility.

– Maximize “high tech,” both academic & administrative.

• More self-service – time shifted (asynchronous) learning & other services

• Less contact-hour instruction & other scheduled services

– Individualize “high touch” expert help to retain and graduate students.

– Increase classroom & office capacity of the existing plant.

– Reduce dependency on the classroom & semester models.

Course Redesign Strategy

Redesign large courses for improved learning and costs.

– Focus on the course, not its course sections.

– Emphasize active learning & mastery feed-back testing.

– Use common tests.– Document learning differences

via assessment.– Realign faculty tasks without

increasing faculty labor to:• Offload some functions to

software & assistants.• Optimize faculty expertise &

interventions with students.• Increase student/instructor ratio• Reduce per-student costs.