Wisconsin’s changing climate and forecasting invasive species spread.

Jason E Granberg

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources

Climate change and invasives – Impacts, future invaders, and adaptation approaches

November 13, 2019

Major topics

• Future climate scenarios for Wisconsin from WICCI• How will Wisconsin resemble other states?

• Selecting species for analysis• Which species are found in other states or important lists?

• Using Risk Assessment Mapping Program (RAMP) for climate match scores

• How will those species predicted to respond using models?

• Identifying species patterns for current and future threats• Do we have it now, is it close to Wisconsin?

Future climate scenarios

• In coming decades Wisconsin’s climate is expected to shift with changes in precipitation and temperature.

• Areas of Wisconsin are expected to resemble adjacent states. Known as “climate analogues”.

Climate analogues

https://ag.purdue.edu/indianaclimate/indiana-climate-report/

Predicting how species respond in the future

Since there are thousands of species, how do we select the targets for analysis? See what species are found in climate analogue states.

WICCI Interactive Mapping Tool

https://www.wicci.wisc.edu/climate-map.php

WICCI has a climate analogue match tool.

Predicts how the target area may appear under future climate scenarios.

Analogue states include: Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, Michigan, & Virginia

Species Lists

• Lists include:• EDDMapS records from WICCI analogue

states.

• Wisconsin’s NR40: Invasive Species Rule

• Midwest Invasive Plant Network (MIPN) –Invasive Plant list

• USFWS Ecological Risk Screening Summaries (High risk species)

• 436 species found for aquatic, wetland & terrestrial habitats.

• Species are then analyzed using USFWS’ Risk Assessment Mapping Program (RAMP)

USFWS Risk Assessment Mapping Program (RAMP)

• USFWS uses RAMP for ecological risk screening summaries.

• RAMP looks at similarities between selected global climate stations and matches them to climate stations within North America.

• Looks at where target species is found now then compares where it could be using 16 climate variables.

• Has current and future climate matching at mid- and end-century.

USFWS Risk Assessment Mapping Program (RAMP)

• 16 Climate Variables used in RAMP

• Divided into two major categories:

Temperature Variables Precipitation Variables

Average Mean Temperature Annual Precipitation

Max Temperature of Warmest Month Precipitation of Wettest Month

Min Temperature of Coldest Month Precipitation of Driest Month

Temperature Annual Range Precipitation of Seasonality

Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter Precipitation of Wettest Quarter

Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter Precipitation of Driest Quarter

Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter Precipitation of Warmest Quarter

Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter Precipitation of Coldest Quarter

Running RAMP…

• Script gets records from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). It has 987,000,000+ species records.

• Obtains a subsample of records and joins them to climate stations.

• Records expanded to include local verified records.

Example of GBIF records linked to climate stations

Climate match output: National map for each species

Current emissions scenario 2050 scenario 2070 scenario

Values range from 0 (Blue) to 5 (Yellow) to 10 (Red). The warmer the colors, the better the climate match & suitability. Scores 6+, climate matches.

Example: Flowering rush (Butomus umbellatus)

RAMP output in Wisconsin

How suitable is this species to Wisconsin?National scores clipped to Wisconsin, southern Lake Superior and Lake Michigan.

Scores interpreted using Score Average.

If the species’ average is greater than 6, then the climate is suitable for the species at some point during its life history.

Species referenced for presence/absence. Is it in Wisconsin?

• I checked for the presence of any verified and vouchered records of the species• Herbaria• Museums• DNR sources &

databases

Outputs: General patterns for all species

Current Climate: 78% target species are compatible.

2050 Climate: 76% target species are compatible.

2070 Climate: 74% target species are compatible.

Range expansion = “Winners”: 28 species increase from unsuitable in current climate to suitable in future climate.

Range retraction = “Losers”: 33 species decrease from suitable in current climate to unsuitable in future climate.

Top Ranking SpeciesTerrestrial Plants in Wisconsin• Daucus carota Queen Anne’s Lace• Hieracium aurantiacum orange hawkweed• Centaurea stoebe spotted knapweed• Potentilla recta Sulphur cinquefoil• Hieracium caespitosum meadow hawkweed• Anthriscus sylvestris wild chervil• Tragopodon dubius yellow salsify• Hiercacium piloselloides tall hawkweed• Berteroa incana hoary alyssum• Pastinaca sativa wild parsnip

Top Ranking Species:Terrestrial Plants not in Wisconsin yet…• Euonymus fortunei winter creeper• Pinus nigra Austrian pine• Galium odoratum sweetscented bedstraw• Hibiscus syriacus rose of Sharon• Lespedeza bicolor shrub lespedeza• Miscanthus sinensis Chinese silvergrass• Chorispora tenella crossflower• Ligustrum obtusifolium border privet• Lunaria annua annual honesty• Vinca major bigleaf periwinkle

Top Ranking Species:Terrestrial Plants not in Wisconsin yet…

Euonymus fortuneiwinter creeper

Pinus nigraAustrian pine

Galium odoratumsweetscented bedstraw

Hibiscus syriacusrose of Sharon

Miscanthus sinensiChinese silvergrass

Chorispora tenellacrossflower

Ligustrum obtusifoliumborder privet

Vinca majorbigleaf periwinkle

Top Ranking Species: Wetland Plants in Wisconsin

Agrostis gigantea redtop Ambrosia artemisiifolia annual ragweed

Alnus glutinosa European alder Veronica officinalis common speedwell

Dactylis glomerata orchardgrass Phleum pratense timothy

Morus alba white mulberry Acorus calamus calamus

Phragmites australis common reed Lonicera tatarica Tatarian honeysuckle

Rumex crispus curly dock Berberis thunbergii Japanese barberry

Salix alba white willow Achillea millefolium common yarrow

Trifolium pratense red clover Elaeagnus angustifolia Russian olive

Phalaris arundinacea Reed canarygrass Stellaria media common chickweed

Solanum dulcamara climbing nightshade Ranunculus acris tall buttercup

Top Ranking Species: Wetland Plants not in Wisconsin yet…

Eichhornia crassipes common water hyacinth* Polygonum caespitosum Oriental Lady’s thumb

Lonicera sempervirens trumpet honeysuckle Rubus phoenicolasius wine raspberry

Petasites hybridus pestilence wort Marsilea quadrifolia European waterclover

Jacobaea vulgaris stinking willie Microstegium vimineum Nepalese browntop

Ligustrum sinense Chinese privet Schoenoplectiella mucronate bog bulrush

Persicaria perfoliata Asiatic tearthumb Saccharum ravennae ravennagrass

Bothriochloa bladhii Caucasian bluestem Epilobium parviflorum mallflower hairy willowherb

Juncus inflexus European meadowrush Kummerowia striata Japanese clover

Buddleja davidii orange eye butterflybush Arundo donax giant reed

Carex acutiformis lesser pond sedge Mentha pulegium pennyroyal

* Site in Wisconsin has been controlled.

Top Ranking Species: Wetland Plants not in Wisconsin yet…

Eichhornia crassipescommon water hyacinth

Lonicera sempervirenstrumpet honeysuckle

Petasites hybriduspestilence wort

Jacobaea vulgarisstinking willie

Persicaria perfoliataAsiatic tearthumb

Bothriochloa bladhiiCaucasian bluestem

Juncus inflexusEuropean meadowrush

Buddleja davidiiorange eye butterflybush

Carex acutiformislesser pond sedge

Top Ranking Species: Wetland Plants not in Wisconsin yet…

Polygonum caespitosum Oriental Lady’s thumb

Rubus phoenicolasiuswine raspberry

Marsilea quadrifoliaEuropean waterclover

Microstegium vimineumNepalese browntop / Japanese stiltgrass

Schoenoplectiella mucronatebog bulrush

Saccharum ravennaeravennagrass

Epilobium parviflorummallflower hairy willowherb

Kummerowia striataJapanese clover

Top Ranking Species:Aquatic Plants in Wisconsin

• Nasturtium officinale watercress

• Potamogeton crispus curly pondweed

• Hydrilla verticillata waterthyme

• Najas minor brittle waternymph

• Myriophyllum spicatum Eurasian watermilfoil

• Nitellopsis obtuse starry stonewort

• Nymphoides peltata yellow floatingheart

• Nelumbo nucifera sacred lotus

Top Ranking Species:Aquatic Plants not in Wisconsin yet…

• Eichhornia crassipes common water hyacinth

• Egeria densa Brazilian waterweed

• Marsilea quadrifolia European waterclover

• Trapa natans water chestnut

Top Ranking Species:Aquatic Plants not in Wisconsin yet…

Eichhornia crassipescommon water hyacinth

Egeria densaBrazilian waterweed

Marsilea quadrifoliaEuropean waterclover

Trapa natanswater chestnut

Top Ranking Species:Aquatic Animals in Wisconsin

• Dreissena polymorpha zebra mussel

• Cyprinus carpio common carp

• Orconectes rusticus rusty crayfish

• Bythotrephes longimanus spiny waterflea

• Dreissena bugensis quagga mussel

• Neogobius melanostomus Round goby

• Cipangopaludina chinensis Chinese mystery snail

• Morone americana White perch

• Alosa pseudoharengus Alewife

• Bosmina coregoni a waterflea

• Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Chinook salmon

Top Ranking Species:Aquatic Animals not in Wisconsin yet…

• Ameiurus catus White catfish

• Pterygoplichthys pardalis Amazon sailfin catfish

• Tilapia zillii redbelly tilapia

• Perccottus glenii Chinese sleeper

• Oreochromis niloticus Nile tilapia

• Silurus glanis wels catfish

• Rhodeus sericeus Amur bitterling

• Hypomesus nipponensis Wakasagi

• Oreochromis mossambicus Moazambique tilapia

• Pseudorasbora parva stone moroko

Top Ranking Species:Aquatic Animals not in Wisconsin yet…

Ameiurus catusWhite catfish

Pterygoplichthys pardalisAmazon sailfin catfish

Tilapia zilliiredbelly tilapia

Perccottus gleniiChinese sleeper

Oreochromis niloticusNile tilapia

Silurus glaniswels catfish

Rhodeus sericeusAmur bitterling

Top Ranking Species:Aquatic Animals not in Wisconsin yet…

Hypomesus nipponensisWakasagi

Oreochromis mossambicusMoazambique tilapia

Pseudorasbora parvastone moroko

Limitations

• Species has to be designated as invasive in a list

• GBIF subsampling doesn’t keep all the information. No easy way to QA/QC records.

• RAMP is a single model; multiple models are better

• If a species is under-surveilled, it can have poor RAMP fitting

• Graceful cattail (Typha laxmanii) has a RAMP score of 5, but is a new threat in Wisconsin.

When assessing new threats with RAMP

• Use RAMP scores with literature reviews:• Potential environmental, economic, or human health impacts• Life history traits• Reproductive rates• Abundance and distribution; are there many populations near Wisconsin?• Vulnerable habitats or species-specific habitat needs• Methods of control• Ability to naturalize with native ecosystems.

• RAMP scores are coarse-grained and not useful for small scale planning at state scale.

• RAMP scores do not imply competitive advantage of one species over another.

New Tool: Range shift maps from EDDMapS!https://www.eddmaps.org/rangeshiftlisting/Tool developed by Dr. Jenica Allen of Mount Holyoke CollegeUses 13 models for species predictions

EDDMapS has 13 models. Users can set the sensitivity.

Does at least 1 model suggest change?

or

Do multiple models needs to suggest change?

Southeastern Wisconsin Invasive Species Consortium

2019 Annual Educational Symposium

Presentation References and Resources

• Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts wicci.wisc.edu

o Climate impacts, adaptation resources, presentation resources, etc.

o Natural community vulnerability assessments (Plants and Natural Communities

Working Group webpage)

• Center for Climatic Research (UW-Madison Nelson Institute) nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/

o Cutting edge climate science with most recent research, interactive climate maps

• Northeast RISCC Management Website https://people.umass.edu/riscc/

• Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS)

o forestadaptation.org (adaptation menus, demonstration sites, workshops)

o adaptationworkbook.org

Amy Staffen

Wisconsin DNR, Natural Heritage Conservation Program

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI)

Approaching Climate Adaptation with Logic and Intentionality

I would now like to tell you about how my WICCI colleagues and me have worked closely with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, or NIACS, to bridge the gap between climate science and on-the-ground management.

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WICCI Plants & Natural Communities Working Group

Bridging the gap between science and land management

• How will climate change impact the sites that I manage?

• What actions can I take to:o promote resilience?o protect species?o retain ecosystem

services?

• How will it affect the way that I go about my work?

WDNR

WDNR

wiscnews.com

Under the larger WICCI umbrella, I am the co-chair of the Plants and Natural Communities Working Group. This group has assumed a leadership role in helping land managers and planners [CLICK] understand how the sites and resources that they manage are vulnerable to climate change [CLICK], and what actions they can take to promote resilience, protect species, and retain ecosystem services. [CLICK] We also help managers strategize how changing environmental conditions may affect the way they go about their work.

1. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments

2. Menus of Adaptation Actions

3. Adaptation Workshops

4. Adaptation Demonstration Sites

Amy Staffen

Building an Adaptation Toolbox

The WICCI PNC WG is bridging the gap between science and management through the development of an adaptation toolbox of sorts. Thus far, we’ve produced 4 types of toolbox resources: 1) climate change vulnerability assessments for the natural communities of Wisconsin, 2) menus of climate adaptation options, 3) both general and property specific adaptation workshops, and 4) adaptation demonstration sites. I’ll be telling you about each of these four resources during this presentation.

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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments (CCVAs) for Wisconsin’s Natural Communities

• NIACS did forests of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Peninsula of Michigan →

• WICCI did remaining 52 natural communities ↓

Let’s delve into CCVAs first. After NIACS produced a climate vulnerability assessment for forests of northern WI and the western UP (shown here), we were inspired to apply the same methodology for the remaining 52 natural communities of Wisconsin. NIACS was a vital partner in providing guidance as we applied their methodology to meet our unique needs.

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CCVAs: 52 Technical Bulletins

For those 52 natural communities, we produced technical bulletins that was targeted toward natural resource professionals and academicians. Typically 7-8 pages, these bulletins include an executive summary, a detailed summary of potential impacts, and factors that most influence adaptive capacity.

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CCVAs10 Broad Community Group Factsheets

• Bedrock

• Barrens

• Grasslands

• Great Lakes Shorelines

• Non-forested Wetlands

• Savannas

• Northern Lowland Forests

• Northern Upland Forests

• Southern Lowland Forests

• Southern Upland Forests

For a broader, less-technical audience, we created two-page fact sheets for the 10 broad community groups that you see listed here. Each fact sheet summarizes climate threats and impacts on that group, special characteristics or features that confer adaptive capacity, and win-win actions that practitioners can take to mitigate or moderate climate change impacts. These CCVAs are useful for setting priorities for restoration, management, and protection of natural areas.

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Menus of Adaptation Options

Show us some

examples!!

Richard Staffen

Forests

Urban Forests

Forested Watersheds

Wetlands

Grasslands (future)

Use these menus with the Adaptation

Workbook

The next type of resource that NIACS and WICCI have developed and continue to develop are “Menus of Adaptation Strategies and Approaches.” These menus provide managers in the Midwest and Northeast regions of the U.S. with a highly ordered list of concepts, strategies and approaches that facilitate climate adaptation while meeting management goals and objectives. These are specifically designed for use with the NIACS Adaptation Workbook, a decision-support framework that I’ll be talking about later. Thus far, there are eight menus available addressing landscape settings such as forests, urban forests, forested watersheds, and wetlands. We hope to produce a menu for grasslands in the future. I’d like to share examples of tactics from the “Wetland Adaptation Menu” that relate to invasive species, and will thus be of interest to you.

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Utilize on-the-ground phenological cues rather than calendar dates to identify appropriate treatment windows for invasives

Jim Rathert/mdc.mo.gov

Ohio State University

Sample Tacticsfrom WetlandAdaptation Menu

For example, an adaptation tactic that we recommend in the wetland menu is to utilize on-the-ground phenological cues rather than calendar dates to identify appropriate treatment windows for invasives. Let’s consider using prescribed fire to control non-native invasive grasses such as reed canary grass. One typically burns these in “late spring,” but with climate change, this seasonal window is shifting. In this case, you need to periodically assess your target site, and time your burn for when the reed canary grass is actively growing but before native plants have broken dormancy.

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Monitor environmental conditions to maximize herbicide efficacy

• Reduced herbicide penetration• Increased volatilization

Sample Tacticsfrom WetlandAdaptation Menu

High temps

High relative humidity

High wind

✓ Spray early in the morning or in the evening when temps are low, RH is high, and there is a mild but steady wind

✓ Use surfactant or adjuvant to enhance herbicide penetration✓ Consult product labels carefully

Let’s review what we know about environmental conditions and herbicide efficacy: high temps, high RH and high wind can all reduce herbicide penetration and increase volatilization. For this reason, in general it is best to spray early in the morning or in the evening when temps are low, RH is high, and there is a mild but steady wind. If your herbicide still doesn’t work, it could be that your target invasives are showing that phenotypic plasticity that we talked about ealier – maybe they’ve developed a thicker waxy cuticle in response to moisture stress, for example. To hedge your bets toward success, talk to your herbicide supplier about adding a surfactant or adjuvant to enhance herbicide penetration. And, as always, for your safety and to maximize success, carefully consult the herbicide label to see what the optimum conditions are for application.

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Monitor environmental conditions to maximize herbicide efficacy

Logging observations is key!

• Species treated

• Date, time of day• Environmental conditions• Formulation• Application method• Phenological cues• Overall effectiveness

Sample Tacticsfrom WetlandAdaptation Menu

InvasivesLogbook

If you keep careful records of your herbicide applications and their relative effectiveness, you will have an important tool to aid in climate change adaptation. Key factors to note in your log book include species treated, date of treatment, time of day, environmental conditions (especially the four noted at left), herbicide formulation, application method, phenological cues, and effectiveness.

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Monitor sites that are vulnerable to invasions and control new infestations early

• Areas prone to flooding and inundation

• Areas prone to erosion, subsidence

• Other areas that are disturbed from extreme climate events such as tornado or drought

Sample Tacticsfrom WetlandAdaptation Menu

Monitoring was important before climate change – now it’s doubly important. In addition to your typical monitoring targets for new invasions (roads, trails, parking areas) you now need to watch areas that are prone to flooding and erosion, and other areas that become disturbed following extreme climate events.

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Minimize soil disturbance, and promptly revegetate bare soils to prevent establishment of non-native invasives.

• Immediately secure bare soils after seeding/planting by using erosion control fabric or weed-free mulch certified by Wisconsin Crop Improvement Association.

• Use cover crops to quickly secure soils.

• Avoid legume cover crops to limit nitrogen inputs that encourage invasives.

Sample Tacticsfrom WetlandAdaptation Menu

When soil disturbance does occur, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure! If you do plantings, you may want to secure those bare soils from washing away during a severe storm by installing erosion control fabric or weed-free mulch. Also, using cover crops is a great idea, but avoid using legumes, as the nitrogen that they add to soils will only encourage invasives.

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Adjust management priorities to invasion fronts

Sample Tactics from Wetland Adaptation Menu

Setting your management priorities to invasion fronts will save time, money and resources, and make overall success more likely. This principle can be applied at the site level or the regional level.

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In this schema developed by my colleague Fred Clark, an invasives manager divides an area into three management zones based on the invasion front. In the highest-density area, your goal will be to “Slow the Spread,” or containment. As you move away from that zone, however, the situation becomes more manageable, though not to the point of complete eradication; here is your Acceptable Threshold zone. Lastly, the areas with no to very light infestation can be labeled Zero Tolerance zones, where existing small populations can be eliminated, and new invasions can be pounced on. Always start work in your cleanest areas with the least amount of invasives!

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Control and report new invasives

mipn.org Webpage

Learn what new species are likely to appear in your area

“Midwestern Early Detection Plant Species”

Report new invasives or unknown species that are spreading aggressively to EDDMapS/GLEDN

"Early Detection Rapid Response"

Seek out funding or assistance for rapid response to new invasions

”Cooperative Weed Management Area Resources” and “Grants”

Sample Tacticsfrom WetlandAdaptation Menu

Controlling and reporting new invasives is extremely important in the era of climate change. Since the risk of new invasives entering the state increases with climate change, we need your eyes on the ground to help us detect and control new invaders. The Midwest Invasive Plant Network website can offer one-stop shopping when it comes to this approach. [Read the chart]

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Explore new opportunities offered with climate change

OpportunitiesCaveats and Considerations

Drought/Low Water Table↓

Growing season mowing in wetlands

• Avoid destruction of sedge hummock microtopography

Mild winters↓

Conduct prescribed burns

• Good for setting back brush, but will not likely kill it

• May stimulate growth of non-native cool-season grasses

Sample Tacticfrom WetlandAdaptation Menu

Lastly, while it seems like the emphasis relating to climate change is consistently negative, we need to seek out silver linings in this situation. For example, wetland managers may see more opportunities for growing season mowing of invasives if drought dries the ground sufficiently. Care should be taken, though, to avoid destruction of sedge hummock microtopography, if present. Also, there have been opportunities in recent years to conduct prescribed burns in winter due to lack of snow and dry conditions (for example, on dry prairies). While this is good for setting back brush, it probably won’t kill it. Also, if a site is dominated by non-native cool-season grasses, a dormant season burn will only create perfect conditions for them to shoot up early in the spring with the warming sun on blackened soil and present double the amount of competition for the native warm-season grasses that come up later.

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Getting help with Adaptation Workbook and Menus: Adaptation Workshops!

adaptationworkbook.org

As I mentioned previously, the adaptation menus are intended for use with the “Adaptation Workbook,” ideally during interactive workshops where a community of stakeholders follow this structured framework for a particular site. The Adaptation Workbook was created by NIACS. It is also available as a really slick online tool that resembles TurboTax. Adaptation Workbook is a structured process for considering potential impacts of climate change on specific sites and how site managers can meet their objectives in light of those impacts. The process is completely flexible to accommodate a wide variety of geographic locations, scales, ecosystem types, and management goals. NIACS staff are available to help customers work through the workbook process.

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The Adaptation Workbook process consists of 5 basic steps: 1) Define goals and objectives; 2) Assess climate impacts and vulnerabilities; 3) Evaluate objectives considering those climate impacts; 4) Identify adaptation approaches and tactics; and 5) Monitor effectiveness of implemented actions.

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Final Outcome: A completed Workbook!

So what does the customer get out of an adaptation workshop? During an Adaptation Workbook workshop, you will complete a template that was created as an Excel workbook with 5 tabs representing each of the 5 steps in the Adaptation Workbook process. At the end of the workshop, you will have a completed Excel workbook where you have clearly defined your site, goals and objectives, assessed the vulnerability of your site to climate change, evaluated you original management objectives given climate change impacts, identified possible on-the-ground adaptation tactics, and described how you will monitor the efficacy of your adaptation implementation. If you use the online tool instead, you will receive a report that is organized with the same five sections.

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You can see how by following the logical and purposeful progression of the Adaptation Workbook, you are approaching management with intentionality. This process is golden for communication – If someone asks you why you’re doing what you’re doing, you’ll have clear documentation showing your thought processes and rationales. AND it lends itself well to periodically re-evaluating your objectives to see if your tactics need to be adjusted.

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Demonstration Sites & Case Studies

Goals:

• Real-life examples of approaches and tactics at work

• Diverse regions, habitats and sites

• Long-term monitoring

• Field tours

Demonstration sites on the NIACS Climate Change Response Framework

website: adaptation.org

Spur Lake SNA

Bohn Farms

In the end, perhaps the most important lessons to be learned are on the ground at real-life sites. NIACS has already established 150 demonstration sites spanning 14 states. Detailed descriptions of the Adaptation Workbook sessions for these sites are on their website so that others may learn. Our WICCI Plants and Natural Communities Working Group has been helping to add to these demonstration sites, which we will use for field tours with land managers and practitioners.

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Where to find information:Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments

wicci.wisc.edu

Google search: “wiccinatural communities”

Wisconsin CCVAs

Where can you find more information? Climate change vulnerability assessments can be found at the WICCI website on our Plants and Natural Communities Working Group webpage. The best way to get there is to Google “wicci natural communities.’

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✓Menus of Adaptation Options

✓Adaptation Demonstration Sites

forestadaptation.org

Where to find information: Adaptation Resources

NIACS has an amazing website at forestadaptation.org. Don’t be fooled by the URL! Although the website was originally designed for forested ecosystems, they cover non-forested ecosystems as well. From the base webpage, you can find regional information including all of the demonstration sites and the various menus of adaptation options. To learn more about the Adaptation Workbook process, go to “adaptationworkbook.org.” At either of these websites, you can find ways to connect with the wonderful NIACS staff, who are more than happy to help anyone that happens to ask.

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Don’t forget the WICCI website!

✓ Climate impacts✓ Static climate maps✓ Interactive mapping tool✓ Videos✓ Presentation materials✓ Reports and publications

wicci.wisc.edu

And don’t forget about the WICCI website! There, you can find information on climate impacts, climate maps, videos, presentation materials, reports and publications.

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FOR ENDANGERED SPECIES

EAGLE

PLATE

STAND UP

DIRECT

GIFTSTAX

CHECKOFF

PHOTO BY EVA SZYSZKOSKI

If you are excited about the work we’re doing with invasive species and climate adaptation, I encourage you to support the WDNR Natural Heritage Conservation Program via the tax check off, direct gifts, or buying an eagle license plate. By doing so, you will help us reach our mission to preserve and protect Wisconsin’s natural heritage (plants, animals, natural communities) for future generations.

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TAXCHECK OFFACHECK OFF MARKS THE SPOT

FOR ENDANGERED SPECIES.

You can enter any amount on your state tax form where it says “endangered resources” to support our work.

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DIRECTGIFTS

MAKE A DIFFERENCE, TODAY.

DONATE ONLINE OR VIA MAIL

ENDANGERED RESOURCES FUND

dnr.wi.gov search “endangered resources”

You can donate online by going to dnr.wi.gov and searching for “endangered resources.”

Donations are Tax deductible, and are matched 1:1

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EAGLE

PHOTO BY RYAN BRADY

LICENSE PLATEHELP DRIVE SUCCESS FOR ENDANGERED SPECIES

dnr.wi.gov search “ER license plate”

The endangered resources license plates help support endangered species through our program.Automatic $25 donation with every renewalOrder forms can be found at dnr.wi.gov, with the search term “ER License Plates”

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Questions?

amy.staffen@wisconsin.gov

jason.granberg@Wisconsin.gov

Richard Staffen

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My name is Amy Staffen. I am an ecologist with the Natural Heritage Conservation Program at the Wisconsin DNR in Madison. I would like to introduce my co-worker, Jason Granberg, a conservation biologist and invasive species specialist. Jason and I are also active members of WICCI, or the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts. WICCI was formed by the Wisconsin DNR and the University of Wisconsin in 2007, and has grown to include a network of collaborators from numerous agencies, institutions, tribes, and NGOs who work together to address climate change impacts in Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest.

Jason and I will be doing a series of presentations to help you understand how climate change may affect the work that you do with invasive species. I will start by providing an overview of our changing climate and how that directly influences invasive species as well as their management. Jason will then describe innovative use of modeling to forecast spread of invasives in Wisconsin in the future. Lastly, I’ll wrap up by telling you about a variety of resources that support climate adaptation, including some examples.

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Let’s dive in! In the following presentation, I will describe the following:

-climate projections for southeastern Wisconsin

-major climate drivers that influence invasive species

-how climate change influences invasive species and their management

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• I could throw a bunch of climate maps, charts and graphs at you, but that’s not the main topic of this presentation, and that’s not my strength.

• Instead, I will review the important projections that will have an impact on invasive species.

• At the end, I’ll tell you where you can find more detailed information if you wish to dig deeper.

I want to caution you that climate scientists do not have a crystal ball that predicts the future. Instead, their models generate possible and likely scenarios. We actually favor the term ‘projection’ over ‘prediction’ for that reason. We can use climate projections as part of climate adaptation, a form of risk management. If we can plot the range of possible scenarios for the future, we can assess potential risk and adapt with logic and intentionality.

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The two drivers of climate are temperature and precipitation. I’m going to share with you model projections for these two drivers, and demonstrate how a single change can incite a cascade of secondary and tertiary impacts, and note examples where two changes can interact to create a separate impact.

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This is a map that our WICCI colleagues at UW-Madison produced showing projected change in annual average temperature in the 100-year period leading up to 2090. You can see that the SEWISC project area is projected to see an increase in annual average temperature of 9.75 to 10.5 degrees.

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In addition to having increasing annual mean temperatures, we will also likely see more days in the 90s than we have in the past, longer growing seasons, and warmer winters. We will have earlier springs and later autumns, which means a longer growing season, which also mean that plants have more time to grow and transpire water from the soil to the atmosphere. This combined with rising temperatures could lead to drought. Lastly, winters will likely be warmer.

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This is a map that our WICCI colleagues produced showing projected change in annual average precipitation in the 100-year period leading up to 2090. You can see that the SEWISC project area is projected to see an increase in annual average precipitation of 1.75 to 2.25 inches.

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In addition to seeing an increase in precipitation overall, we will see:

1) More frequent and intense storms, which can lead to less infiltration of stormwater to the aquifers and more sheet flow and flooding.

2) More dry periods between rain events

3) In winter, precipitation may more often fall in the form of rain or freezing rain rather than snow. If this occurs when the ground is frozen, the precipitation will flow across the landscape, carrying nutrient runoff (especially if farmers spread manure on the fields in winter) and sediment to open waterways.

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide has been steadily increasing on earth since the start of the Industrial Revolution, mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels. While this is one of the major drivers behind global climate change, elevated CO2 also has important implications for invasive plant growth and management, as we’ll learn later.

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On Lake Michigan, water temperatures over all may increase, while higher surface wind speeds and extreme storms may cause erosion and subsidence.

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Let’s review some of the traits that make invasives invasive. Phenotypic plasticity refers to changes in a plants form and physiology in response to environmental conditions. This can include changing from reproductive to vegetative state, allocating more resources to roots if nutrients are lacking, or altering leaf shape, size and thickness to minimize water loss and maximize photosynthesis. New invasions and invasives spread are often associated with disturbed soils. These species can also exploit sudden increases in resources such as water or nutrients, they are capable of reproducing at prolific rates, and often utilize multiple means to disperse their seeds or fruit.

Now, let’s see how some of this characteristics interact with climate change. In virtually all instances, climate change just amplifies these characteristics!

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- Extreme droughts, floods, and blowdowns create novel disturbances and opportunities for invasion.

- Increased sediment and nutrient runoff associated with frequent and intense storms enhances conditions for germination and growth. What species do you most associate with sedimentation in your work?

- Trees become stressed as they are exposed to drought and extreme heat. This stress increases their susceptibility to pests and diseases. In addition, many insects can detect stressed trees, and appear to attack them preferentially over healthy trees (e.g., emerald ash borer).

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- We talked earlier about how invasives have terrific phenotypic plasticity. You can imagine how useful this is when environmental conditions are erratic and changing!

- Non-native species also respond to a longer growing season. For example, in sedge meadow, reed canary grass may gain a competitive edge over native spp by extending its growing season with changing climate, while early-growing sedges such as tussock sedge and other natives will more likely retain their shorter growing periods.

- Invasives are also known to increase growth in response to elevated CO(2) and warming. Many plants, especially woody species, are able to better grab moisture from the air through their stomata with elevated CO2, which can confer an advantage to plants like common buckthorn.

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- While cold winters and prolonged snowpack have been limiting factors for many of our invasives, this may longer be the case. Forest pests will also be more likely to survive with warmer winters.

- Increasing temperatures and milder winters may support the northward shift of invasivessuch as kudzu

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- Environmental factors such as air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, soil moisture, and atmospheric CO2 can affect the uptake, translocation, and activity of herbicide. Furthermore, interactions among these environmental factors may have unpredictable effects on herbicide activity.

- Higher temperatures and the resulting lower plant transpiration can also diminish herbicide assimilation and efficacy

- The enhanced growth of some invasives with increasing atmospheric CO2 may be significant enough that they can rebound from herbicide treatments

- Remember phenotypic plasticity? Plants may change their leaf orientation or waxy cuticle thickness to limit moisture loss during periods of higher temps or drought. This can result in reduced herbicide penetration of the leaf surface.

- Seasonal management windows may shrink or shift. For example, burning in spring is getting more difficult due to our typically wet springs with lots of flooding. Managers are thus unable to do as many burns, or are forced to burn on non-traditional seasons such as fall or winter.

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