Wisconsin Retirement System
description
Transcript of Wisconsin Retirement System
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Wisconsin Retirement System2000-2002 Experience StudyGabriel, Roeder, Smith & CompanyDecember 11, 2003
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IntroductionEach year the actuarial liabilities of WRS are valued. In the valuation, assumptions are made regarding the future experience of the system with regard to various risk areas
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Risk AreasActive membersRates of withdrawalRates of disabilityPatterns of salary increasesRates of retirementRates of mortality
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Risk Areas (Continued)Retirees-Rates of mortality - normal-Rates of mortality - disabled lives
Economic-Rates of investment return-InflationStatutes provide for an in-depth study of assumptions every 3 years.
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IntroductionAssumptions should be carefully chosen and continually monitored. Continued use of outdated assumptions can lead to ...
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IntroductionUnderstated costs resulting in either an inability to pay benefits when due, or sharp increases in required contributions at some point in the future.
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IntroductionOverstated costs resulting in either benefit levels that are kept below the level that could be supported by the computed rate, orAn unnecessarily large burden on the current generation of members, employers and taxpayers.
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IntroductionA single set of assumptions will not be suitable indefinitely. Things change, and our understanding of things (whether or not they are changing) also changes.
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IntroductionIn recognition of this, assumptions are periodically studied in depth. Assumptions are then adjusted to reflect experience trends -- but not random year to year fluctuations.
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Basics of an Experience StudyDecrements relate to things that happen to people.Start by counting people (easy, right?).Divide number who actually decremented by number eligible to decrement to get the crude rate.
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Basics of an Experience StudyExamine crude rates for consistency with known human behavior patterns, prior observation, etc.Assign a credibility factor to the crude rates based upon the group size and upon whatever external factors may have biased the observations.
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Basics of an Experience StudyDevelop trial rates, which are a weighted average of crude rates, and prior assumptions, where the weight is the credibility factor.Smooth the trial rates and test for reasonableness and consistency with WRS data and other known data sources.
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Credibility FactorsCredibility factors in this study ranged from under 10% to over 90%Most factors were between 50% and 90%
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2000 2002 Experience StudyLarger sample size60% - 90% credibility factor was often applied to the 2000 2002 findingsSmaller sample size-50% - 60% credibility factor was typically applied to the 2000 2002 findingsMore on Credibility
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Understanding Impact of Changes
Sheet1
Direction ofDirection of
Change in RateChange in Liability
InterestIncreaseDecrease
Salary IncreaseIncreaseIncrease
MortalityIncreaseDecrease
RetirementEarlier retirementsGenerally Increases
WithdrawalIncreaseDecrease
DisabilityIncreaseGenerally Increases
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Summary of Decrement ExperienceWithdrawalGeneralLess than 5 Decreased for Males, Increased for FemalesMore than 5 Approximately sameSchoolsLess than 5 Increased for Public Schools, Decreased for UniversityMore than 5 Approximately same for Public Schools, Decreased for UniversityProtectiveLess than 5 DecreasedMore than 5 Approximately sameExecutive & ElectedLess than 5 IncreasedMore than 5 Decreased
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Summary of Decrement ExperienceDisabilityVaries by groupRetirement Normal EarlyGeneral Decreased DecreasedSchools Increased IncreasedProtectiveDecreased N/AExecutive & Elect.Decreased DecreasedMortalityMales DecreasedFemales Approximately the same
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Male General ParticipantsComparison of Aggregate Withdrawal Rates
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Female General ParticipantsComparison of Aggregate Withdrawal Rates
Chart2
0.08060.089
0.070.0867
0.06630.0761
0.0650.068
0.07220.0714
0.0730.0723
Actual
Proposed
Sheet1
ActualProposed
1985-19870.080.09
1988-19900.070.09
1991-19930.070.08
1994-19960.070.07
1997-19990.070.07
2000-20020.070.07
Sheet1
00
00
00
00
00
00
Actual
Proposed
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Male General Withdrawal ExperienceUp to 5 Years of Service at Assumed Termination
Sheet1
Number of WithdrawalsWithdrawal Rates
Years ofLife YearsActualExpectedExpected
ServiceLife Years ExposureExperiencePresentProposedActualPresentProposed
0-114,8062,7072,6062,6650.18280.17600.1800
1-211,6031,1361,2301,1600.09790.10600.1000
2-39,5247227527620.07580.07900.0800
3-47,7284515264640.05840.06800.0600
4-56,3793403833190.05330.06000.0500
Totals50,0405,3565,4975,3700.10700.10990.1073
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Male General Withdrawal ExperienceMore than 5 Years of Service at Assumed Termination
>5
Number of WithdrawalsWithdrawal Rates
Life YearsActualExpectedExpected
AgeExposureExperiencePresentProposedActualPresentProposed
Under 307123343360.04630.06000.0500
30-344,4001451671540.03300.03800.0350
35-399,4792182372180.02300.02500.0230
40-4416,2172963082920.01830.01900.0180
45-4921,4172973433000.01390.01600.0140
50-5423,9213003593110.01250.01500.0130
Totals76,1461,2891,4571,3110.01690.01910.0172
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Male General ParticipantsRates of Withdrawal with Less than 5 Years of Service
Chart3
0.18283128460.1759999990.18000000720.006350.00635
0.0979057140.10599999870.10000000150.005520.00552
0.07580848380.07900000360.07999999820.005420.00542
0.05835921330.06800000370.05999999870.005330.00533
0.05329989030.05999999870.05000000070.005630.00563
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
Sheet2
Withdrawal Experience of
Male General Participants
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Current table =309Proposed table =311
Less Than 5 Years of Service
At Assumed Termination (Middle of Year)
Number of WithdrawalsWithdrawal Rates
Years ofLife YearsActualExpectedExpected
ServiceExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV
10-114,8062,7072,6062,6650.18280.17600.18000.0063510.180000
21-211,6031,1361,2301,1600.09790.10600.10000.0055220.100000
32-39,5247227527620.07580.07900.08000.0054230.080000
43-47,7284515264640.05840.06800.06000.0053340.060000
54-56,3793403833190.05330.06000.05000.0056350.050000
Totals50,0405,3565,4975,3700.10700.10990.1073
The present assumptions for service up to 5 years vary by age as well as service.
Current table =698Proposed table =709
5 or More Years of Service
At Assumed Termination (Middle of Year)
Exposure DOES NOT include those eligible for Normal AND EARLY Retirement
Number of WithdrawalsWithdrawal Rates
Life YearsActualExpectedExpected270.050000
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV280.047000
290.044000
27Under 307123343360.04630.06000.05000.01576300.041000
3230-344,4001451671540.03300.03800.03500.00538310.038000
3735-399,4792182372180.02300.02500.02300.00308320.035000
4240-4416,2172963082920.01830.01900.01800.00210330.032600
4745-4921,4172973433000.01390.01600.01400.00160340.030200
5250-5423,9213003593110.01250.01500.01300.00144350.027800
360.025400
Totals76,1461,2891,4571,3110.01690.01910.0172370.023000
380.022000
The proposed assumptions recognize about half of the observed difference between actual experience and390.021000
present assumptions.400.020000
410.019000
420.018000
Rates of Withdrawal with Fewer Than 5 Years of Service430.017200
440.016400
450.015600
460.014800
470.014000
480.138000
490.013600
500.013400
510.013200
520.013000
530.013000
540.013000
550.013000
Rates of Withdrawal with 5 or More Years of Service
ActualProposed
Current0.05270.0529
Previous Investigation Results
1997-19990.05310.0520
1994-19960.04990.0478
1991-19930.04510.0478
1988-19900.04120.0505
1985-19870.04770.0523
Sheet2
0000.006350.00635
0000.005520.00552
0000.005420.00542
0000.005330.00533
0000.005630.00563
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0000.015760.01576
0000.005380.00538
0000.003080.00308
0000.00210.0021
0000.00160.0016
0000.001440.00144
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
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Male General ParticipantsRates of Withdrawal with 5 or More Years of Service
Chart4
0.04634831460.05999999870.05000000070.015760.01576
0.03295454550.03799999880.03500000010.005380.00538
0.02299820660.02500000040.0230.003080.00308
0.01825245110.01899999940.01799999920.00210.0021
0.01386748840.01600000080.01400000040.00160.0016
0.01254128170.01499999970.01300000030.001440.00144
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
Sheet2
Withdrawal Experience of
Male General Participants
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Current table =309Proposed table =311
Less Than 5 Years of Service
At Assumed Termination (Middle of Year)
Number of WithdrawalsWithdrawal Rates
Years ofLife YearsActualExpectedExpected
ServiceExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV
10-114,8062,7072,6062,6650.18280.17600.18000.0063510.180000
21-211,6031,1361,2301,1600.09790.10600.10000.0055220.100000
32-39,5247227527620.07580.07900.08000.0054230.080000
43-47,7284515264640.05840.06800.06000.0053340.060000
54-56,3793403833190.05330.06000.05000.0056350.050000
Totals50,0405,3565,4975,3700.10700.10990.1073
The present assumptions for service up to 5 years vary by age as well as service.
Current table =698Proposed table =709
5 or More Years of Service
At Assumed Termination (Middle of Year)
Exposure DOES NOT include those eligible for Normal AND EARLY Retirement
Number of WithdrawalsWithdrawal Rates
Life YearsActualExpectedExpected270.050000
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV280.047000
290.044000
27Under 307123343360.04630.06000.05000.01576300.041000
3230-344,4001451671540.03300.03800.03500.00538310.038000
3735-399,4792182372180.02300.02500.02300.00308320.035000
4240-4416,2172963082920.01830.01900.01800.00210330.032600
4745-4921,4172973433000.01390.01600.01400.00160340.030200
5250-5423,9213003593110.01250.01500.01300.00144350.027800
360.025400
Totals76,1461,2891,4571,3110.01690.01910.0172370.023000
380.022000
The proposed assumptions recognize about half of the observed difference between actual experience and390.021000
present assumptions.400.020000
410.019000
420.018000
Rates of Withdrawal with Fewer Than 5 Years of Service430.017200
440.016400
450.015600
460.014800
470.014000
480.138000
490.013600
500.013400
510.013200
520.013000
530.013000
540.013000
550.013000
Rates of Withdrawal with 5 or More Years of Service
ActualProposed
Current0.05270.0529
Previous Investigation Results
1997-19990.05310.0520
1994-19960.04990.0478
1991-19930.04510.0478
1988-19900.04120.0505
1985-19870.04770.0523
Sheet2
0000.006350.00635
0000.005520.00552
0000.005420.00542
0000.005330.00533
0000.005630.00563
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0000.015760.01576
0000.005380.00538
0000.003080.00308
0000.00210.0021
0000.00160.0016
0000.001440.00144
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
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Female General ParticipantsRates of Withdrawal with Less than 5 Years of Service
Chart2
0.18286200850.16899999980.18000000720.003930.00393
0.1092350230.11100000140.10999999940.003790.00379
0.08839200760.08699999750.09000000360.003920.00392
0.07197585330.07100000230.07000000030.003940.00394
0.0615566530.05999999870.05999999870.004010.00401
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
Sheet1
Withdrawal Experience of
Female General Participants
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Current table =310Proposed table =312
Less Than 5 Years of Service
At Assumed Termination (Middle of Year)
Number of WithdrawalsWithdrawal Rates
Years ofLife YearsActualExpectedExpected
ServiceExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV
10-138,7567,0876,5506,9760.18290.16900.18000.0039310.180000
21-227,1252,9633,0112,9840.10920.11100.11000.0037920.110000
32-321,0201,8581,8291,8920.08840.08700.09000.0039230.090000
43-417,2281,2401,2231,2060.07200.07100.07000.0039440.070000
54-514,3778858638630.06160.06000.06000.0040150.060000
Totals118,50614,03313,47613,9210.11840.11370.1175
The present assumptions for service up to 5 years vary by age as well as service.
Current table =699Proposed table =710
5 or More Years of Service
At Assumed Termination (Middle of Year)
Exposure DOES NOT include those eligible for Normal AND EARLY Retirement
Number of WithdrawalsWithdrawal Rates
Life YearsActualExpectedExpected270.055000
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV280.053000
290.510000
27Under 301,4287686790.05320.06000.05500.01188300.049000
3230-347,3083394093290.04640.05600.04500.00492310.047000
3735-3914,1024364944230.03090.03500.03000.00292320.045000
4240-4424,0236136976010.02550.02900.02500.00203330.042000
4745-4931,4416698496290.02130.02700.02000.00163340.039000
5250-5433,5356598056710.01970.02400.02000.00152350.036000
360.033000
Totals111,8372,7923,3402,7320.02500.02990.0244370.030000
380.029000
The proposed assumptions recognize about half of the observed difference between actual experience and390.028000
present assumptions.400.027000
410.026000
420.025000
Rates of Withdrawal with Fewer Than 5 Years of Service430.024000
440.023000
450.022000
460.021000
470.020000
480.020000
490.020000
500.020000
510.020000
520.020000
530.020000
540.020000
550.020000
Rates of Withdrawal with 5 or More Years of Service
ActualProposed
Current0.07300.0723
Previous Investigation Results
1997-19990.07220.0714
1994-19960.06500.0680
1991-19930.06630.0761
1988-19900.07000.0867
1985-19870.08060.0890
Sheet1
0.18283128460.1759999990.18000000720.006350.00635
0.0979057140.10599999870.10000000150.005520.00552
0.07580848380.07900000360.07999999820.005420.00542
0.05835921330.06800000370.05999999870.005330.00533
0.05329989030.05999999870.05000000070.005630.00563
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0.04634831460.05999999870.05000000070.015760.01576
0.03295454550.03799999880.03500000010.005380.00538
0.02299820660.02500000040.0230.003080.00308
0.01825245110.01899999940.01799999920.00210.0021
0.01386748840.01600000080.01400000040.00160.0016
0.01254128170.01499999970.01300000030.001440.00144
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0.18283128460.1759999990.18000000720.006350.00635
0.0979057140.10599999870.10000000150.005520.00552
0.07580848380.07900000360.07999999820.005420.00542
0.05835921330.06800000370.05999999870.005330.00533
0.05329989030.05999999870.05000000070.005630.00563
Actual Experience
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0.04634831460.05999999870.05000000070.015760.01576
0.03295454550.03799999880.03500000010.005380.00538
0.02299820660.02500000040.0230.003080.00308
0.01825245110.01899999940.01799999920.00210.0021
0.01386748840.01600000080.01400000040.00160.0016
0.01254128170.01499999970.01300000030.001440.00144
Actual Experience
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0000.003930.00393
0000.003790.00379
0000.003920.00392
0000.003940.00394
0000.004010.00401
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0000.011880.01188
0000.004920.00492
0000.002920.00292
0000.002030.00203
0000.001630.00163
0000.001520.00152
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
-
Female General ParticipantsRates of Withdrawal with 5 or More Years of Service
Chart3
0.05322128850.05999999870.05499999970.011880.01188
0.04638752050.05600000170.04500000180.004920.00492
0.03091760030.03500000010.02999999930.002920.00292
0.02551721270.02899999920.02500000040.002030.00203
0.02127794920.02700000070.01999999960.001630.00163
0.01965111080.02400000020.01999999960.001520.00152
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
Sheet1
Withdrawal Experience of
Female General Participants
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Current table =310Proposed table =312
Less Than 5 Years of Service
At Assumed Termination (Middle of Year)
Number of WithdrawalsWithdrawal Rates
Years ofLife YearsActualExpectedExpected
ServiceExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV
10-138,7567,0876,5506,9760.18290.16900.18000.0039310.180000
21-227,1252,9633,0112,9840.10920.11100.11000.0037920.110000
32-321,0201,8581,8291,8920.08840.08700.09000.0039230.090000
43-417,2281,2401,2231,2060.07200.07100.07000.0039440.070000
54-514,3778858638630.06160.06000.06000.0040150.060000
Totals118,50614,03313,47613,9210.11840.11370.1175
The present assumptions for service up to 5 years vary by age as well as service.
Current table =699Proposed table =710
5 or More Years of Service
At Assumed Termination (Middle of Year)
Exposure DOES NOT include those eligible for Normal AND EARLY Retirement
Number of WithdrawalsWithdrawal Rates
Life YearsActualExpectedExpected270.055000
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV280.053000
290.510000
27Under 301,4287686790.05320.06000.05500.01188300.049000
3230-347,3083394093290.04640.05600.04500.00492310.047000
3735-3914,1024364944230.03090.03500.03000.00292320.045000
4240-4424,0236136976010.02550.02900.02500.00203330.042000
4745-4931,4416698496290.02130.02700.02000.00163340.039000
5250-5433,5356598056710.01970.02400.02000.00152350.036000
360.033000
Totals111,8372,7923,3402,7320.02500.02990.0244370.030000
380.029000
The proposed assumptions recognize about half of the observed difference between actual experience and390.028000
present assumptions.400.027000
410.026000
420.025000
Rates of Withdrawal with Fewer Than 5 Years of Service430.024000
440.023000
450.022000
460.021000
470.020000
480.020000
490.020000
500.020000
510.020000
520.020000
530.020000
540.020000
550.020000
Rates of Withdrawal with 5 or More Years of Service
ActualProposed
Current0.07300.0723
Previous Investigation Results
1997-19990.07220.0714
1994-19960.06500.0680
1991-19930.06630.0761
1988-19900.07000.0867
1985-19870.08060.0890
Sheet1
0.18283128460.1759999990.18000000720.006350.00635
0.0979057140.10599999870.10000000150.005520.00552
0.07580848380.07900000360.07999999820.005420.00542
0.05835921330.06800000370.05999999870.005330.00533
0.05329989030.05999999870.05000000070.005630.00563
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0.04634831460.05999999870.05000000070.015760.01576
0.03295454550.03799999880.03500000010.005380.00538
0.02299820660.02500000040.0230.003080.00308
0.01825245110.01899999940.01799999920.00210.0021
0.01386748840.01600000080.01400000040.00160.0016
0.01254128170.01499999970.01300000030.001440.00144
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0.18283128460.1759999990.18000000720.006350.00635
0.0979057140.10599999870.10000000150.005520.00552
0.07580848380.07900000360.07999999820.005420.00542
0.05835921330.06800000370.05999999870.005330.00533
0.05329989030.05999999870.05000000070.005630.00563
Actual Experience
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0.04634831460.05999999870.05000000070.015760.01576
0.03295454550.03799999880.03500000010.005380.00538
0.02299820660.02500000040.0230.003080.00308
0.01825245110.01899999940.01799999920.00210.0021
0.01386748840.01600000080.01400000040.00160.0016
0.01254128170.01499999970.01300000030.001440.00144
Actual Experience
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0000.003930.00393
0000.003790.00379
0000.003920.00392
0000.003940.00394
0000.004010.00401
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
0000.011880.01188
0000.004920.00492
0000.002920.00292
0000.002030.00203
0000.001630.00163
0000.001520.00152
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Years of Service
-
Male General ParticipantsRates of Normal Retirement
Chart1
0.27238805970.250.28000000120.03140.0314
0.30129124820.250.28000000120.034760.03476
0.28173913040.250.28000000120.037520.03752
0.28227571120.250.28000000120.042110.04211
0.29310344830.28000000120.30000001190.04880.0488
0.38507462690.46999999880.4000000060.053170.05317
0.41991341990.44999998810.4000000060.064950.06495
0.35156250.44999998810.3499999940.08440.0844
0.30573248410.44999998810.3499999940.036770.03677
0.30653266330.31999999280.3499999940.046220.04622
0.1645569620.28999999170.1500000060.048170.04817
0.12650602410.23999999460.1500000060.05160.0516
0.19047619050.21999999880.1500000060.069960.06996
0.13888888890.11999999730.1500000060.028820.02882
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Age
Sheet4
Normal Retirement Experience of
Male General Participants
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Current table =658Proposed table =871
Anchor age =55Anchor age =55
LifeNumber of RetirementsRetirement Rates
YearsActualExpectedExpected
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV
5757804219201.0225.00.27240.25000.28000.031400.300000
5858697210174.0195.00.30130.25000.28000.034760.300000
5959575162144.0161.00.28170.25000.28000.037520.300000
6060457129114.0128.00.28230.25000.28000.042110.300000
616134810297.0104.00.29310.28000.30000.048800.300000
6262335129157.0134.00.38510.47000.40000.053170.400000
636323197104.092.00.41990.45000.40000.064950.400000
64641284558.045.00.35160.45000.35000.084400.350000
6565628192283.0220.00.30570.45000.35000.036770.220000
6666398122127.0139.00.30650.32000.35000.046220.180000
67672373969.036.00.16460.29000.15000.048170.100000
68681662140.025.00.12650.24000.15000.051600.100000
69691262428.019.00.19050.22000.15000.069960.100000
7070 & Up5768069.086.00.13890.12000.15000.028820.050000
Total5,7061,5711,665.01,609.00.27530.29180.2820
Rates of Normal Retirement
ActualProposed
Current0.27530.2820
Previous Investigation Results
1997-19990.26660.2732
1994-19960.32970.2998
Sheet4
0.27238805970.250.28000000120.03140.0314
0.30129124820.250.28000000120.034760.03476
0.28173913040.250.28000000120.037520.03752
0.28227571120.250.28000000120.042110.04211
0.29310344830.28000000120.30000001190.04880.0488
0.38507462690.46999999880.4000000060.053170.05317
0.41991341990.44999998810.4000000060.064950.06495
0.35156250.44999998810.3499999940.08440.0844
0.30573248410.44999998810.3499999940.036770.03677
0.30653266330.31999999280.3499999940.046220.04622
0.1645569620.28999999170.1500000060.048170.04817
0.12650602410.23999999460.1500000060.05160.0516
0.19047619050.21999999880.1500000060.069960.06996
0.13888888890.11999999730.1500000060.028820.02882
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Age
Sheet1
Early Retirement Experience of
Male General Participants
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Current table =660Proposed table =872
Anchor age =55Anchor age =55
LifeNumber of RetirementsRetirement Rates
YearsActualExpectedExpected
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV
55554,421298309.0354.00.06740.07000.08000.007540.080000
56563,672336184.0294.00.09150.05000.08000.009520.080000
57572,2409490.090.00.04200.04000.04000.008470.040000
58581,95912178.0118.00.06180.04000.06000.010880.060000
59591,72211069.0103.00.06390.04000.06000.011790.060000
60601,46611088.0117.00.07500.06000.08000.013760.080000
61611,23493111.099.00.07540.09000.08000.015030.080000
62621,165232233.0233.00.19910.20000.20000.023400.200000
6363913209183.0183.00.22890.20000.20000.027810.200000
646462494125.094.00.15060.20000.15000.028640.150000
Total19,4161,6971,470.01,685.00.08740.07580.0868
Rates of Early Retirement
ActualProposed
Current0.08740.0868
Previous Investigation Results
1997-19990.07550.0773
1994-19960.08760.0876
1991-1993
1988-1990
1985-1987
Sheet1
0.06740556440.07000000030.07999999820.007540.00754
0.0915032680.05000000070.07999999820.009520.00952
0.04196428570.03999999910.03999999910.008470.00847
0.06176620720.03999999910.05999999870.010880.01088
0.06387921020.03999999910.05999999870.011790.01179
0.07503410640.05999999870.07999999820.013760.01376
0.07536466770.09000000360.07999999820.015030.01503
0.19914163090.2000000030.2000000030.02340.0234
0.22891566270.2000000030.2000000030.027810.02781
0.15064102560.2000000030.1500000060.028640.02864
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Age
-
Male General ParticipantsRates of Early Retirement
Chart1
0.06740556440.07000000030.07999999820.007540.00754
0.0915032680.05000000070.07999999820.009520.00952
0.04196428570.03999999910.03999999910.008470.00847
0.06176620720.03999999910.05999999870.010880.01088
0.06387921020.03999999910.05999999870.011790.01179
0.07503410640.05999999870.07999999820.013760.01376
0.07536466770.09000000360.07999999820.015030.01503
0.19914163090.2000000030.2000000030.02340.0234
0.22891566270.2000000030.2000000030.027810.02781
0.15064102560.2000000030.1500000060.028640.02864
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Age
Sheet2
Early Retirement Experience of
Male General Participants
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Current table =660Proposed table =872
Anchor age =`Anchor age =55
LifeNumber of RetirementsRetirement Rates
YearsActualExpectedExpected
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV
55554,421298309.0354.00.070.070.080.007540.080000
56563,672336184.0294.00.090.050.080.009520.080000
57572,2409490.090.00.040.040.040.008470.040000
58581,95912178.0118.00.060.040.060.010880.060000
59591,72211069.0103.00.060.040.060.011790.060000
60601,46611088.0117.00.080.060.080.013760.080000
61611,23493111.099.00.080.090.080.015030.080000
62621,165232233.0233.00.200.200.200.023400.200000
6363913209183.0183.00.230.200.200.027810.200000
646462494125.094.00.150.200.150.028640.150000
Total19,4161,6971,470.01,685.00.090.080.09
Rates of Early Retirement
ActualProposed
Current0.08740.0868
Previous Investigation Results
1997-19990.07550.0773
1994-19960.08760.0876
1991-1993
1988-1990
1985-1987
Sheet2
0000.007540.00754
0000.009520.00952
0000.008470.00847
0000.010880.01088
0000.011790.01179
0000.013760.01376
0000.015030.01503
0000.02340.0234
0000.027810.02781
0000.028640.02864
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Age
-
Female General ParticipantsRates of Normal Retirement
Chart2
0.2015113350.27000001070.27000001070.040260.04026
0.25806451610.27000001070.27000001070.047390.04739
0.22307692310.27000001070.250.051640.05164
0.1950.28000000120.250.056030.05603
0.2650602410.34000000360.250.068510.06851
0.31297709920.50.30000001190.081030.08103
0.33333333330.50.3499999940.092010.09201
0.34177215190.50.3499999940.106730.10673
0.26183206110.50.30000001190.024290.02429
0.26126126130.38999998570.30000001190.029490.02949
0.1514598540.30000001190.2000000030.030630.03063
0.15456674470.250.1500000060.034990.03499
0.14714714710.2000000030.1500000060.038830.03883
0.1586921850.2000000030.1500000060.020640.02064
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Age
Sheet3
Normal Retirement Experience of
Female General Participants
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Current table =659Proposed table =873
Anchor age =55Anchor age =55
LifeNumber of RetirementsRetirement Rates
YearsActualExpectedExpected
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV
575739780107.0107.00.200.270.270.040260.270000
58583418892.092.00.260.270.270.047390.270000
59592605870.065.00.220.270.250.051640.250000
60602003956.050.00.200.280.250.056030.250000
61611664456.042.00.270.340.250.068510.250000
62621314166.039.00.310.500.300.081030.300000
63631053553.037.00.330.500.350.092010.350000
6464792740.028.00.340.500.350.106730.350000
65651,310343655.0393.00.260.500.300.024290.200000
6666888232346.0266.00.260.390.300.029490.200000
676754883164.0110.00.150.300.200.030630.100000
686842766107.064.00.150.250.150.034990.100000
69693334967.050.00.150.200.150.038830.100000
7070 & Up1,254199251.0188.00.160.200.150.020640.100000
Total6,4391,3842,130.01,531.00.210.330.24
Rates of Normal Retirement
ActualProposed
Current0.21490.2378
Previous Investigation Results
1997-19990.26510.3218
1994-19960.28900.3091
Sheet3
0000.040260.04026
0000.047390.04739
0000.051640.05164
0000.056030.05603
0000.068510.06851
0000.081030.08103
0000.092010.09201
0000.106730.10673
0000.024290.02429
0000.029490.02949
0000.030630.03063
0000.034990.03499
0000.038830.03883
0000.020640.02064
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Age
-
Female General ParticipantsRates of Early Retirement
Chart3
0.04955465590.05999999870.05999999870.005520.00552
0.05731523380.05999999870.05999999870.006380.00638
0.04775346980.05999999870.05000000070.006540.00654
0.05437531610.05999999870.05000000070.007210.00721
0.0594357710.07000000030.05000000070.007830.00783
0.08635947510.09000000360.07999999820.009810.00981
0.08450197770.10999999940.07999999820.010550.01055
0.17710410850.2000000030.18000000720.015250.01525
0.18631955080.2000000030.18000000720.017590.01759
0.13454800280.2000000030.14000000060.018070.01807
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Age
Sheet4
Early Retirement Experience of
Female General Participants
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Current table =661Proposed table =874
Anchor age =55Anchor age =55
LifeNumber of RetirementsRetirement Rates
YearsActualExpectedExpected
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposedSDV
55556,175306370.0370.00.050.060.060.005520.060000
56565,304304318.0318.00.060.060.060.006380.060000
57574,251203255.0213.00.050.060.050.006540.050000
58583,954215237.0198.00.050.060.050.007210.050000
59593,651217256.0183.00.060.070.050.007830.050000
60603,277283295.0262.00.090.090.080.009810.080000
61612,781235306.0222.00.080.110.080.010550.080000
62622,507444501.0451.00.180.200.180.015250.180000
63631,959365392.0353.00.190.200.180.017590.180000
64641,427192285.0200.00.130.200.140.018070.140000
Total35,2862,7643,215.02,770.00.080.090.08
Rates of Early Retirement
ActualProposed
Current0.07830.0785
Previous Investigation Results
1997-19990.08790.0924
1994-19960.09520.1026
Sheet4
0.005520.00552
0.006380.00638
0.006540.00654
0.007210.00721
0.007830.00783
0.009810.00981
0.010550.01055
0.015250.01525
0.017590.01759
0.018070.01807
Actual Experience (+/- 2 SDV)
Present Assumptions
Proposed Assumptions
Age
-
General Members - Merit and Longevity Pay Increase AssumptionsGross Salary Increases - Correlation by Age
Chart3
0.075
0.0648
0.0583
0.0548
0.0491
0.0445
0.0409
0.0349
0.0339
Salary Increases
Best Fit Curve
Age
Sheet3
Salary Increases During Calendar 2000 - 2002
To General Members Active Both at Beginning & End of YearData with service >= to this amount will be used
Service Break =1
Expected based on rate at midpoint of age interval
Age GroupAge GroupIndividual expected ending salaries not available for all years.
BeginningBeginning
of YearNumberActualExpectedof Year4.50%sal scale base inflation
231sal scale table
Under 253,1128.22%4.50%Under 2522
2725-2912,5728%5%25-29-0.986608362527$count10.050000
3230-3423,1576%5%30-34322000 General payroll3,717,092,000132,16120.050000
3735-3937,2716%5%35-39372002 General payroll4,316,593,677138,68430.050000
4240-4457,4415%5%40-444240.050000
4745-4966,8005%5%45-494750.050000
5250-5465,3544%5%50-545260.050000
5755-5939,5514%5%55-595770.050000
6260-6417,2463%5%60-646280.050000
6765 & Over6,8823%5%65 & Over6790.050000
100.050000
Total329,386110.050000
120.050000
Average (including new entrants)2.05%4.50%130.050000
140.050000
150.050000
160.050000
170.050000
180.050000
190.050000
200.050000
210.050000
220.050000
230.050000
240.050000
250.050000
260.050000
270.050000
280.046800
290.043600
300.040400
310.037200
320.034000
330.033000
340.032000
350.031000
360.030000
370.029000
380.027200
390.025400
400.023600
410.021800
420.020000
430.019800
440.019600
200220022002200220012001200120012000200020002000450.019400
AgeNumberBeginning PayActual EndingAgeNumberBeginning PayActual EndingAgeNumberBeginning PayActual Ending460.019200
204486722791227220366354116491772030506630558123470.019000
21113226571523761922110319549932121230219717591431940474480.018000
222184632252498408122196400570843241082217532768883568633490.017000
233237465565780515223285618742167090792325552383245875374500.016000
244651144632212208959243989446332103353632437481816119083500510.015000
256601760638918724504255681418829415458025254981216439513571472520.014000
267882172588123138933266791812908219620549266731738374018867713530.012600
278892570396327233412278622413188126261601278082126271222951115540.011200
2810153043060332123166289622718937929443218288692344820425161312550.009800
291141347139943652284229102929730482320171452911313124243734119523560.008400
301179356310893753752330126937703305405181173013203802782341146170570.007000
311454456559464787458831146545056043481854343114394158484044753008580.006200
321626522790205500347932157047864572510902963215024269503945696399590.005400
331735550424025772970933157447561343508835203316354768080451274390600.004600
341756556076455832533534173953652052573387213418945617490260340108610.003800
351941626165026572915635203263719577676563953520696122748865429499620.003000
362236721981637553058136224468923027731309303622566655600271187737630.003000
372463779105308119690337246275485334804356043724837375129978665183640.003000
382689854261748924318238263881558722865382583827838058501486040026650.003000
392857915310879604838039295689209067945940513931629214182998059749660.003000
40319299639635103883637403356102049252107962451403471100327130106863166670.003000
413615113114266117977649413705111972745118875704413694108236406115414501680.003000
423946123511286128591234423891118968530126282224423840113854003121236633690.003000
434095130079258135426191434061125026008132396349434033118682015126211815700.003000
444274137224628142900222444241129876665137341251444027119657110126822669710.003000
454428140635561146070128454198130452850137688495454214126095252133398721720.003000
464377141023041146341271464383136110953144117558464442136420421144252959730.003000
474538147618162152569284474565145991789153759416474310133974719141484037740.003000
484720157232093162452691484397143064020150973785484502140914307149159732750.003000
494548153958907159277513494606150949472159029841494572144094131152450183760.003000
504709161151529166699753504651153542754161321431504269137745619145486929770.003000
514734162876438168185117514336146547573153933272514277139707780147607142780.003000
524404155096597159942375524328148682439156310707524317141778758149307247790.003000
534361156267316160920169534398150896518158634905534201138393175145344194800.003000
544446158809836163456183544246145892673152774450543677120417106126550040810.003000
5540621440001561483418015535281194914331253176205527919058456495041145820.003000
56336711708235012074218956263988080768922970395626278275644286868102830.003000
572500859359068832024257249279981905836069655725207886497182866175840.003000
582337765125177878161158233074411122779391385822646633033969388992
592214720860617403038659210062613413655452225917805326501555729396
601929586753126007705960163950154433523137296015374248104544492723
611487463082444766868661139339334154411188686114164010271941934349
621143329609693373117562110932226479333603246210772970376031060659
638922558128226044059638412293496623558379637701979670520554516
647111940401019771097646641705305617602445646381544729916047474
654761214619012405997654591081476111214562654781122373811680083
663648251861838158466361805839683914196631269456757274241
673227193153728582767271595686661403486723446549704854713
682425071878515707668204382437839872786819933981923561604
691833321383335451969181310212632183646916728354002898038
701612716139277600270146239161724804667014123557822454398
711352205366221303971137214310022312427113219041041975145
721151884587187827372122177052818230787211318043621834833
73101141662714445437310015304991616677738415129471573150
748813671491386153747412923051297336746411349881201027
752564015321406129775237367007237962557522328562262950971
760007600076000
770007700077000
780007800078000
790007900079000
808080
Total11306436571314833792794381Total10945634171926433607569414Total10686632051462993396121210
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Salary Increases
Best Fit Curve
Age
-
General Members - Merit and Longevity Pay Increase AssumptionsGross Salary Increases - Correlation by Service
Chart4
0.0646
0.0498
0.0435
0.0419
0.0403
0.0381
0.0357
0.0335
0.0343
Salary Increases
Best Fit Curve
Age
Sheet3
Salary Increases During Calendar 2000 - 2002
To General Members Active Both at Beginning & End of YearData with service >= to this amount will be used
Service Break =1
Expected based on rate at midpoint of age interval
Service GroupService GroupIndividual expected ending salaries not available for all years.
BeginningBeginning
of YearNumberActualProposedof Year4.50%sal scale base inflation10.035000
111sal scale table20.035000
20-496,5056%5%0-4-0.886442318230.032000
75-973,9145%5%5-97$count40.029000
1210-1458,6304%5%10-14122000 General payroll3,717,092,000132,16150.026000
1715-1939,3224%5%15-19172002 General payroll4,316,593,677138,68460.023000
2220-2433,7944%5%20-242270.020000
2725-2919,0734%5%25-292780.018800
3230-346,9054%5%30-343290.017600
3735-391,0803%5%35-3937100.016400
4240-441633%5%40-4442110.015200
Total329,386Total00.013600
00.013200
00.012800
Average (including new entrants)2.05%4.50%00.012400
00.012000
00.011600
00.011200
00.010800
00.010400
00.010000
00.009600
00.009200
00.008800
00.008840
00.008000
00.007600
00.007200
00.006800
00.006400
00.006000
00.005600
00.005200
00.004800
00.004400
00.004000
00.004000
00.004000
00.004000
00.004000
00.004000
00.004000
00.004000
00.004000
00.004000
00.004000
20022002200220022001200120012001200020002000200000.004000
AgeNumberBeginning PayActual EndingAgeNumberBeginning PayActual EndingAgeNumberBeginning PayActual Ending00.004000
00000000000000.004000
1113062482416012680378631103732191775692418140121991120149582522312602000.004000
28952219654862231969732285862016278312176764272796317410468318816794200.004000
37848203964104214451323370681729186961854424143650114995789516183497300.004000
46433173172482180781705459281518937101613548814563613712545414684600500.004000
55434151491693157801768552331385781321463857785545014188898515093747900.004000
64940139891853145125976650681426856541507542066496513321538114141239800.004000
74767144482263149752383746781350814241421455137498313952316614770096100.004000
84452136773344141443026846841408857121479948938496614460262715278345400.004000
94455142719543147769606946811458669611532637609515815885211516769429600.004000
10438314588234615061424310484915917365016699194610469714578088615330326400.004000
114644160845460165772606114506147328161154698032114005125998259132566479
124325150003947154558402123796127363352133475429123472112547782118352292
133630128685689132975359133325114455341119648611133362109178950115037246
143125113807223117240013143232111579218117044118143279110689751116511943
153114113515224116855132153134112619135117506644153191109587166115392003
1629771124666971157581901630501114194531168241481625178580428990172675
17292311267559511602571717240086174184903057811721867455481878251293
182286868465728901548118205474250836780581221824428567449890219055
19193174571934768065331923278665331390676819192790100878589105641897
2022238691088489591265202628100717814105573921202896106619640111806848
2124981008288431038437872127371062049781111976882125499514503599913873
22257910528459410823544022242395268907997103292220787857387382120400
232319964538939843807123196778104417816288202317616734688470641251
241870782538668025411424166967315308704551672415976236904265389469
251573670871166872701425151362371293650408162516026406315467017602
261427613426906306377526150362876547657385182615296284712965711063
271401614683076314110327142961518632642838102711764962962852005152
28131259175102605954272810684679563348786245288823687951038581165
299604417277645090479297983513829036677571299003749145439386843
307173294126133631240308003491306236491043306502770745929095412
317063209436132702611315662539580226523278315092210860523151239
324712217417822612529324391984678720679597323931622348917014218
333681704440117329036333261413155914690171332921244842413018208
34257114165581159186534215924966296876633419684864428885959
351587158573730800535135607853863650703513655389655797121
3610650750955156764369441858984326671367129301653034589
377232459613287322375121078222187031377231942673334077
3838161843516508313851229909124103553820689132713979
3933157928016290723914490250513132392912716231338034
40124117974224524023102342610725004012449595466608
41167387657511414193636123717404116635102665865
425188857194583428315332327474429338994354639
435218194226359435199203202803435211796223137
4413617637046444176421183659445212361222946
45313628014316445292189917694527680577705
462917699311946277705829684613665136503
472829688269847136503371884726536168436
4813718839094482684366929748000
4926929767211490004915336554755
502101586102706502971941015865014123042439
510005100051000
520005200052000
530005300053000
540005400054000
550005500055000
560005600056000
570005700057000
580005800058000
590005900059000
600006000060000
Total11306436571314833792794381Total10945634171926433607569414Total10686632051462993396121210
Sheet3
Salary Increases
Best Fit Curve
Age
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Salary Increases
Best Fit Curve
Age
-
General Members - Merit and Longevity Pay Increase Assumptions
Save 2
ActualProposed
1985-19870.04770.0523
1988-19900.04120.0505
1991-19930.04510.0478
1994-19960.04990.0478
1997-19990.05310.0520
2000-20020.05270.0529
Male Gen Participants Aggregate
Save 2
0.04770.0523
0.04120.0505
0.04510.0478
0.04990.0478
0.05310.052
0.05270.0529
Actual
Proposed
Sheet1
Service GroupService Group
BeginningBeginning
of YearNumberActualProposedof Year
0-496,5053.96%3.50%0-4
5-973,9141.98%2.00%5-9
10-1458,6301.35%1.40%10-14
15-1939,3221.19%1.20%15-19
20-2433,7941.03%1.00%20-24
25-2919,0730.81%0.80%25-29
30-346,9050.57%0.60%30-34
35-391,0800.35%0.40%35-39
40-441630.43%0.40%40-44
Total329,386Total
SAVE
Previous Investigations:
Male DeathsFemale Deaths
1979-19810.04891979-19810.0273
1982-19840.04301982-19840.0267
1985-19870.03931985-19870.0284
1988-19900.03721988-19900.0295
1991-19930.03651991-19930.0302
1994-19960.03751994-19960.0321
1997-19990.03521997-19990.0330
SAVE
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Male Deaths
Female Deaths
-
Summary of Withdrawal Experience
Sheet4
Summary of Decrement Experience
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Withdrawal - Total
General (Without Schools)23,47023,77023,334
Public School and University10,42110,68210,442
Protective
With Social Security1,3081,4141,314
Without Social Security939393
Executive and Elected168148159
Withdrawal - Service 5 & Up
General (Without Schools)4,0814,7974,043
Public School and University2,7082,9022,810
Protective
With Social Security400399399
Without Social Security524246
Executive and Elected405044
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Disability #
General (Without Schools)583574574
Public School and University315271290
Protective
With Social Security457661
Without Social Security191516
Executive and Elected264
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Early Retirement
General (Without Schools)4,4614,6854,455
Public School and University4,7273,7504,587
Executive and Elected324634
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Normal Retirement
General (Without Schools) **2,6763,4752,866
Public School and University **3,3433,1873,286
Protective*
With Social Security1,0861,3301,186
Without Social Security253248252
Executive and Elected7212390
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Mortality - Retired Lives
Normal Retirement
Male4,6495,1194,805
Female5,2715,1755,175
Disabled Retirement
Male401605487
Female375519429
Mortality - Active Lives
Male483447447
Female374322322
* Includes Early Retirements.
** Figures shown are for people below age 70.
# Actual figures based on Adjusted Experience.
-
# Actual figures based on Adjusted Experience.Summary of Disability Experience
Sheet4
Summary of Decrement Experience
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Withdrawal - Total
General (Without Schools)23,47023,77023,334
Public School and University10,42110,68210,442
Protective
With Social Security1,3081,4141,314
Without Social Security939393
Executive and Elected168148159
Withdrawal - Service 5 & Up
General (Without Schools)4,0814,7974,043
Public School and University2,7082,9022,810
Protective
With Social Security400399399
Without Social Security524246
Executive and Elected405044
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Disability #
General (Without Schools)583574574
Public School and University315271290
Protective
With Social Security457661
Without Social Security191516
Executive and Elected264
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Early Retirement
General (Without Schools)4,4614,6854,455
Public School and University4,7273,7504,587
Executive and Elected324634
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Normal Retirement
General (Without Schools) **2,6763,4752,866
Public School and University **3,3433,1873,286
Protective*
With Social Security1,0861,3301,186
Without Social Security253248252
Executive and Elected7212390
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Mortality - Retired Lives
Normal Retirement
Male4,6495,1194,805
Female5,2715,1755,175
Disabled Retirement
Male401605487
Female375519429
Mortality - Active Lives
Male483447447
Female374322322
* Includes Early Retirements.
** Figures shown are for people below age 70.
# Actual figures based on Adjusted Experience.
-
Summary of Early Retirement Experience
Sheet4
Summary of Decrement Experience
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Withdrawal - Total
General (Without Schools)23,47023,77023,334
Public School and University10,42110,68210,442
Protective
With Social Security1,3081,4141,314
Without Social Security939393
Executive and Elected168148159
Withdrawal - Service 5 & Up
General (Without Schools)4,0814,7974,043
Public School and University2,7082,9022,810
Protective
With Social Security400399399
Without Social Security524246
Executive and Elected405044
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Disability #
General (Without Schools)583574574
Public School and University315271290
Protective
With Social Security457661
Without Social Security191516
Executive and Elected264
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Early Retirement
General (Without Schools)4,4614,6854,455
Public School and University4,7273,7504,587
Executive and Elected324634
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Normal Retirement
General (Without Schools) **2,6763,4752,866
Public School and University **3,3433,1873,286
Protective*
With Social Security1,0861,3301,186
Without Social Security253248252
Executive and Elected7212390
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Mortality - Retired Lives
Normal Retirement
Male4,6495,1194,805
Female5,2715,1755,175
Disabled Retirement
Male401605487
Female375519429
Mortality - Active Lives
Male483447447
Female374322322
* Includes Early Retirements.
** Figures shown are for people below age 70.
# Actual figures based on Adjusted Experience.
-
* Includes Early Retirements.** Figures shown are for people below age 70.Summary of Normal Retirement Experience
Sheet4
Summary of Decrement Experience
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Withdrawal - Total
General (Without Schools)23,47023,77023,334
Public School and University10,42110,68210,442
Protective
With Social Security1,3081,4141,314
Without Social Security939393
Executive and Elected168148159
Withdrawal - Service 5 & Up
General (Without Schools)4,0814,7974,043
Public School and University2,7082,9022,810
Protective
With Social Security400399399
Without Social Security524246
Executive and Elected405044
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Disability #
General (Without Schools)583574574
Public School and University315271290
Protective
With Social Security457661
Without Social Security191516
Executive and Elected264
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Early Retirement
General (Without Schools)4,4614,6854,455
Public School and University4,7273,7504,587
Executive and Elected324634
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Normal Retirement
General (Without Schools) **2,6763,4752,866
Public School and University **3,3433,1873,286
Protective*
With Social Security1,0861,3301,186
Without Social Security253248252
Executive and Elected7212390
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Mortality - Retired Lives
Normal Retirement
Male4,6495,1194,805
Female5,2715,1755,175
Disabled Retirement
Male401605487
Female375519429
Mortality - Active Lives
Male483447447
Female374322322
* Includes Early Retirements.
** Figures shown are for people below age 70.
# Actual figures based on Adjusted Experience.
-
Summary of Mortality Experience
Sheet4
Summary of Decrement Experience
January 1, 2000 - December 31, 2002
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Withdrawal - Total
General (Without Schools)23,47023,77023,334
Public School and University10,42110,68210,442
Protective
With Social Security1,3081,4141,314
Without Social Security939393
Executive and Elected168148159
Withdrawal - Service 5 & Up
General (Without Schools)4,0814,7974,043
Public School and University2,7082,9022,810
Protective
With Social Security400399399
Without Social Security524246
Executive and Elected405044
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Disability #
General (Without Schools)583574574
Public School and University315271290
Protective
With Social Security457661
Without Social Security191516
Executive and Elected264
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Early Retirement
General (Without Schools)4,4614,6854,455
Public School and University4,7273,7504,587
Executive and Elected324634
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Normal Retirement
General (Without Schools) **2,6763,4752,866
Public School and University **3,3433,1873,286
Protective*
With Social Security1,0861,3301,186
Without Social Security253248252
Executive and Elected7212390
Expected
Decrement Risk AreaActualCurrentProposed
Mortality - Retired Lives
Normal Retirement
Male4,6495,1194,805
Female5,2715,1755,175
Disabled Retirement
Male401605487
Female375519429
Mortality - Active Lives
Male483447447
Female374322322
* Includes Early Retirements.
** Figures shown are for people below age 70.
# Actual figures based on Adjusted Experience.
-
Male Retired Life Mortality StudyNormal Retirement, Original Annuitants Only
Sheet4
LifePost - Retirement DeathPost - Retirement Death Rates
YearsActualExpectedExpected
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposed
50-542,4646980.00240.00370.0034
55-5918,64878106990.00420.00570.0053
60-6426,3311932362220.00730.00900.0084
65-6928,9134004674380.01380.01610.0152
70-7426,1626647797320.02540.02980.0280
75-7920,2949061,0099470.04460.04970.0467
80-8412,7389841,1031,0350.07720.08660.0813
85-896,2567978588050.12740.13710.1287
90-942,0664744233970.22940.20470.1922
95-993991291161090.32330.29080.2730
100 & Up331813130.54550.40660.3817
Totals144,3044,6495,1194,8050.03220.03550.0333
-
Female Retired Life Mortality StudyNormal Retirement, Original Annuitants Only
Sheet4
LifePost - Retirement DeathPost - Retirement Death Rates
YearsActualExpectedExpected
AgeExposureExperience (+/- 2 SDV)PresentProposedActualPresentProposed
50-548570110.00000.00160.0016
55-5914,4463436360.00240.00250.0025
60-6424,5731321071070.00540.00430.0043
65-6929,2032462172170.00840.00740.0074
70-7428,4824024114110.01410.01440.0144
75-7924,9466647017010.02660.02810.0281
80-8420,3329821,0141,0140.04830.04990.0499
85-8913,2731,2181,1391,1390.09180.08580.0858
90-946,4621,0649509500.16470.14690.1469
95-991,9374384854850.22610.25030.2503
100 & Up297911141140.30640.38230.3823
Totals164,8085,2715,1755,1750.03200.03140.0314
-
Economic Assumptions
-
Historical Patterns of Investment Return, Pay Increases and Inflation
Sheet4
Gross Market Returns
CalendarBonds (Long)Cash
YearU.S.Corp.Equiv.Stocks
PeriodTreasury(S&P AA)(T Bills)(S&P 500)
1950-59(0.1)%1.0%1.9%19.4%
1960-691.4%1.7%3.9%7.8%
1970-795.5%6.2%6.3%5.9%
1980-8912.6%13.0%8.9%17.5%
1990-998.8%8.4%4.9%18.2%
200021.5%12.9%5.9%(9.1)%
20013.7%10.7%3.8%(11.9)%
200217.8%16.3%1.7%(22.1)%
Last 53 Years6.0%6.4%5.1%11.8%
-
Historical Patterns of Investment Return, Pay Increases and Inflation
Sheet4
Sample Balanced Fund
Equities60%
Bonds - Government20%
- Corporate15%
Cash Equivalents5%
100%
Fund expenses(e)0.50%
-
Historical Patterns of Investment Return, Pay Increases and Inflation
Sheet4
CalendarPriceNationalSample Balanced Fund
YearInflationAverageTotalSpread:
Period(CPI)Earnings (NAE)Return (I)I - NAE - e
1950-592.2%4.5%12.2%7.2%
1960-692.5%4.3%5.7%0.9%
1970-797.4%6.9%6.2%(1.2)%
1980-895.1%5.8%15.7%9.4%
1990-992.9%4.2%14.4%9.7%
20003.4%5.5%1.1%(4.9)%
20011.6%2.4%(4.6)%(7.5)%
20022.7%3.0%(7.2)%(10.7)%
Last 53 Years3.9%5.1%9.9%4.3%
-
Wage InflationThe present assumptions is 4.5%. WRS has averaged 4.1% a year. Longer term national averages are higher due to excess inflation during the 1970s.Recommendation: 4.1%
-
Real Investment ReturnThe present assumption is 3.5%. Markets have produced net real returns for balanced funds in the 4.3% area since 1960. A larger real return assumption would also be in line with contemporary practice among large public systems.Recommendation: 3.7%
-
Economic AssumptionsNominal Investment Return is the sum of the inflation base plus the net real return. Current assumption is 8.0%.Recommendation: 7.8%
-
Hypothetical Valuation Results December 31, 2002
Sheet4
Executive &
GeneralElected
Present Average 2004 Contribution Rate10.80%11.50%
Hypothetical changes in average rates due to:
New decrements0.6-
New decrements with 3.7% spread0.2(0.2)
Protective
With S.S.Without S.S.
Present Average 2004 Contribution Rate12.50%15.00%
Hypothetical changes in average rates due to:
New decrements0.60.6
New decrements with 3.7% spread*0.4-
-
Hypothetical Valuation Results December 31, 2002
Sheet4
Executive &
GeneralElected
Present Average 2004 Contribution Rate10.80%11.50%
Hypothetical changes in average rates due to:
New decrements0.6-
New decrements with 3.7% spread*0.2(0.2)
Protective
With S.S.Without S.S.
Present Average 2004 Contribution Rate12.50%15.00%
Hypothetical changes in average rates due to:
New decrements0.60.6
New decrements with 3.7% spread0.4-
-
Implementation ScheduleActive and Inactive Lives Valuation: 12/31/2003
Retired Lives Valuation: 12/31/2003
Option Factors: 10/01/2004