Wireless in Canada 2012
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Transcript of Wireless in Canada 2012
Wireless in Canada 2012Geek Girl Dinner, Toronto
Thomas Purves [email protected]: @tpurves
Thank you Geek girls!
What it feels like to own a Canadian Cell Phone Contract
Telcos: One big cozy family?
How the majors are competing
Brand bamboozlement
5
Network Investment
Massive handset subsidies
(not so helpful) (helpful) (mostly helpful)
@tpurves
Regional Quirkiness
@tpurves
What about the little guys?
Rogers BellTelus
Saskt
elMTS
Wind
Video...
Mobili...
0123456789
10
Q1 2012 Canadian Mobile Subscribers(CWTA 2012 Data)
Subs
crib
ers
(Mill
ions
)
@tpurves
Sympathy for the telco industry?
Decoupling of demand and revenueaka: dumbpipeification
BandwidthDemand
Carrier Revenue
In 2011, at least one Canadian carrier was reporting data growth of 5% per week
You are here
@tpurves
What does this look like?
• From Q1 2011 to Q1 2012, Rogers saw their number of smart phone subscribers go from 3.3 to 4.6 M - 38% growth
• In the same period, Rogers total wireless revenues declined – negative 1% growth
• Solution: vertically integrate into media! Lock-up content licenses, diversify into new “value” added services
• Note: when you see a whole new service marketed by a telco, ask yourself who’s problem are they trying to solve here their’s or mine?
• Meanwhile, feed the beast… our insatiable demand for bandwidth
@tpurves
When Government takes the wheel
Government’s role• Wireless services in Canada are governed by either
the CRTC or Industry Canada. Or sometimes both. Or neither.
• Official mandate and limits of CRTC defined by Broadcast and Telecom acts (fyi: last updated by Parliament in early 90s)
• Provinces also have patchwork of consumer protection legislation relative to wireless
• Canada has no official national digital strategy
@tpurves
They told me it would be faster
What is Spectrum?
@tpurves
How this cookie is going to crumble
Rogers NewEntrants:there can only one
Bell & Telus will split these and combine them
• Contiguous spectrum is more valuable
• Rogers will take B block, aligned with ATT in the US, and try to make the best of combining it with A block
• Bell/Telus will take C1 & C2 which they may be able to make effective joint use of through their network sharing agreements
• C block will be fiercely contested by 3-4 remaining carriers (no supported by foreign financing) also helping to drive-up the bidding on B and C as well to prevent tacit collusion amongst big 3 and maximize government revenues.
Where does all the money go?
How the conservative government will spend the next 4B auction proceeds:
1. Implementing a national digital strategy2. Incentives or tax rebates for digital infrastructure investment3. Grants or venture funding for Canadian digital startups or
content creators4. Rolling out rural broadband5. Rolling out urban broadband or fibre6. Waiving HST on wired & wireless broadband subscriptions 7. Save the CBC8. General revenues9. Paying baby-boomers’ healthcare bills10. Buying votes in time for the next election
@tpurves
It’s your call
Thanks!Follow me at: @tpurves