Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.
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Transcript of Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.
![Page 1: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051618/56649ce15503460f949ac7ec/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Wine 2023:Surplus? Or Shortage?
Dave ChambersWine Marketing Enterprises, Inc.
November 8, 2013
![Page 2: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051618/56649ce15503460f949ac7ec/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
“And In This Corner”
“Shortage!” (Oct 22nd report)
• Australian Analysts Tom Kierath and Crystal Wang
• Global shortage of 300 million cases
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“And In This Corner”
“Hogwash!”• “Industry’s in fine
shape” Jon Bonne, SF Chronicle
• “Just offsetting over-supply” Rob McMillin, SVB
• “Supply to vary by price point” Intl Business Times
![Page 4: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051618/56649ce15503460f949ac7ec/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Evidence Of Shortage
• Growing demand– China– Gen X, Millennials
• Shrinking vineyards• Global inventory depletion
![Page 5: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051618/56649ce15503460f949ac7ec/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Growing Demand
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Growing Demand - China
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Growing Demand – By Age
![Page 8: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051618/56649ce15503460f949ac7ec/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Shrinking Supply
![Page 9: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051618/56649ce15503460f949ac7ec/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Global Inventory Depletion
![Page 10: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051618/56649ce15503460f949ac7ec/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Round 1 – Shortage!
![Page 11: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051618/56649ce15503460f949ac7ec/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Not So Fast!
![Page 12: Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage? Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051618/56649ce15503460f949ac7ec/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Round 2 – The Rebuttal
• “The Morgan Stanley’s report is just wrong” (Rob McMillan, Silicon Valley Bank)
• “Global production at its highest in 7 years” (Intl. Org of Vine & Wine, (OIC) France)
• “Bulk wine prices are stable… there is no shortage” (Rabo Bank, New York)
10-31 SFGate.com
WSJ Market Watch
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Rebuttal – Alternate Demand
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Rebuttal – Surplus Product
CBC News July, 2013
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The Winery?
Treasury Wine Estates• The total write-off was $145 million, USD (
WSJ, July 15, 2013)
• “We overestimated U.S. Demand”• Stockholder lawsuit pending• Oct 31st - BofA/Merrill Lynch urges
Treasury to Divest of Beringer ASAP (Wine Industry Insight)
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Rebuttal – Interest Conflict
The spinning of looming shortages to promote wine stocks… could work again for those unfamiliar with the public wine stock frenzy/crash/burn of the 1990s. That debacle was driven by a similar shortage myth, [creating] a huge wine tsunami in 2001.
Wine Industry Insight 10-31-13
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Rebuttal – Interest Conflict
• What bank lists Treasury Wine Estates as their top “consumer pick”?
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Rebuttal – Interest Conflict
• Morgan Stanley, of course.
• Analysts were not made available for comment
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Wine Shortage Knockout?