WindTracer© on Commercial Aircraft

Rex J. Fleming

UCAR

July 14 – 18, 2002

Two Major Challenges After 9/11/01

• There is no four-dimensional atmospheric observing system to reduce effectively the impact of Nuclear-Biological-Chemical (NBC) terrorism.

• While the use of commercial aircraft as a weapon of terror (as in 9/11/01) is not likely in the future, we now have a clearer picture of the importance of maintaining a thriving aviation industry.

[Prior to 9/11/01, the aviation industry represented 4.7% of the Gross Domestic Product ($976 billion in economic activity) and 10.9 million jobs. After 9/11/01, the multiplyer effect of a depressed aviation industry created a near catastrophe to our economy.]

Contaminated Plumes from NBC Terrorism

Source: Crude Nuclear Device

Truckload of Anthrax

Large Toxic Gas Release

Time Response:Very Short—Save lives, ease human suffering

Short-term—Move people out of harm’s way

Long Term—Determine when ground zero back to economic productivity

Data Requirements for Plume Models (lowest 20,000 feet):Accurate 4-dimensional input on winds (advection, dry deposition)

Accurate 4-dimensional input on water vapor and temperatures (stability, wet deposition, moist physics/chemistry, etc.)

• Plume Models Driven by Mesoscale Models

• Mesoscale models very sensitive to quality of data

• Poor (or nonexistant) data on initial wind field and stability conditions (temperature and water vapor) can lead to wide spectrum of results in short time period (regions of stable conditions predicted as unstable and vice versa, convective weather moving too fast or too slow, moisture regions geographically misplaced, moisture amounts off by a factor of two or more)

• Current upper air system is synoptic scale (350 km horizontal, twice per day)

• No mesoscale upper air observing system leads to a dangerous chain of events—very misleading plume model guidance leading to large loss of life—needlessly

Objective (minimum acceptable):

• Achieve the correct stability regime in 90 – 95% of all mesoscale predictions leading up to a potential terrorist event.

• Studies of nonlinear mesoscale systems (sub-synoptic scale) like fronts, MCSs, etc., suggest 70 km profiles every three hours: Increase of (5 x 5 x 4 = 100) times as many profiles as today’s radiosondes.

• Composite system: Commercial aircraft profiles (2 x 2 x 24 = 96) trading space for time as basis; keep current systems, add improved satellite data, GPS occultations and slant path, commercial aircraft wind profiles, satellite wind profiles.

Rapidly Deployed Composite Observing System for National Security

• First major element of composite mesoscale upper air observing system, is commercial aircraft observing system

• All key, difficult elements in place—on a slow track toward implementation

• Extremely cost effective: $1.19 per profile versus $200 recurring costs for radiosonde profile

• Can implement fully within three years of first funds

• Later add additional systems in an efficient manner

• Doppler lidar wind profiles from commercial aircraft over ocean areas near coast

• Automatic ground-based remote sensing systems

• Future satellite system—including lidar winds from space (improved nighttime coverage over globe)

Gravest Concern: Nuclear Threat

• Nuclear Device on cargo vessel (detonated at US Port)

• Add automatic wind profiles at every major US port (LIDAR or VHF or both)

• Nuclear device detonated within the CONUS:

1. Smuggled from Canada or Mexico via surface vehicle

2. Private aircraft from Canada, Mexico, Caribbean, Cuba

3. Short-range missile from above sources

• Wind profiles from commercial a/c (coastal region coverage)

• Wind profiles from satellite (nighttime coverage and greater horizontal coverage)

Doppler Lidar Wind Profiler on Commercial Aircraft

(Help Enhance National Security System)

• Applications

--Extend wind profiles over Great Lakes

--Extend wind profiles over coastal areas

• Current Progress

--NOAA SBIR produced B-767 drawings

--working to add to FAA’s Ocean PDT

--Other

Doppler Lidar System on Multiple Satellites (Help Enhance National Security System)

Applications

--Improve nighttime coverage over CONUS

--Extend coverage over ocean areas

--Support mitigation of effects of terrorism in other anti-terrorist countries

--Enhance military anti-terrorist activities in countries harboring terrorists

Mesoscale Upper Air Observing System is Needed to Help Mitigate the Effects of NBC Terrorism

• “Time is not on our side” A fleet of 2400 commercial aircraft can meet the CONUS requirement for $100M. Implemented in three years. Average cost of vertical profile of winds, temperature, and water vapor is $1.19 versus $200 for GPS radiosonde

• Start national program with a regional effort over the most vulnerable area, the Boston-Washington D.C. corridor with 250 aircraft at program cost of $11M.

• Initiate action on obtaining Lidar Wind Profiles from commercial aircraft and satellites

Actions Towards Implementation

• Proposal from CTI (submitted at our request)

• Modified Windtracer© system; VAD profile every two minutes; 100-meter vertical resolution

• Two systems ($800K each) plus non-recurring engineering: ROM $2.3M

• FAA’s “Ocean” Program Development Team

• Team concerned about competition for resources

• FAA interests are in wind profiles over ocean and volcanic ash.

• Fleming input to National Plan for Environmental Support to Homeland Security

Future Actions

• Finalize Principal Investigator list

• Fleming (carrier interaction, comms, marketing), John Cotton (certification), NOAA, NASA, other

• Complete Cover Proposal (CTI proposal is sub-proposal)

• Emphasis on FAA interests (volcanic ash and winds), NOAA interests (upstream winds), Homeland Security Office, DOD, NASA

• Submit to agencies (one proposal to all or separate?)