Wind Power Potential in Developing Countries...Wind Power Potential in Developing Countries 14 March...
Transcript of Wind Power Potential in Developing Countries...Wind Power Potential in Developing Countries 14 March...
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Wind Power Potential in Developing Countries
14 March 2012 │ ESMAP/IFC Wind Energy Seminar
Kasper Dalsten Senior Specialist, Government Relations
Vestas Mediterranean
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Source: Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) – Annual Market Update 2010
MW
5,000 MW
10,000 MW
15,000 MW
20,000 MW
25,000 MW
30,000 MW
Europe North America Asia Oceania Latin America &Caribbean
Africa & Middle East
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
Annual installed wind capacity by region 2000-2010
, and estimates 2011-2015
The Developing World is Ready for Wind Power Wind power: a natural part of modern energy supply with appropriate regulatory framework
14 March 2012 │ ESMAP/IFC Wind Energy Seminar
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Cost ranges (USD/MWh) for newly built power plants in OECD and BRIC countries (IEA 2010)
The Developing World is Ready for Wind Power Wind power: mature technology with low and competitive costs
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100
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500
600
Largehydro
Nuclear Coal Gas Onshorewind
Offshorewind
Oil Solar PV
Cos
t (U
S$/
MW
h)
14 March 2012 │ ESMAP/IFC Wind Energy Seminar
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The Developing World is Ready for Wind Power Wind power: predictable cost of energy and a natural hedge against fuel price volatility
Source: IMF WEO various years, after Ossowski et al. (2008) Source: MAKE Consulting 2011
WEO Oil Price Forecasts, 2003-2009 (US$/barrel) Fossil fuel prices are volatile and unpredictable
Brazilian Wind Tender Pricing (BRL vs. USD/MWh) Wind power is competitive in open auctions
14 March 2012 │ ESMAP/IFC Wind Energy Seminar
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The Developing World is Ready for Wind Power Great wind resources offering competitive power generation
Source: Vestas MesoMap Sources: Econ Pöyry for sub-Saharan Africa RCREEE for North Africa
Best wind spot in average m/s at 80 meters Marginal cost of electricity in USD/MWh
- 4.9
5.0 - 6.9
7.0 - 8.9
9.0 -
Not available
- 49
50 - 99
100 - 149
150 -
14 March 2012 │ ESMAP/IFC Wind Energy Seminar
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The Developing World is Ready for Wind Power Large wind power potential in the short term and the long term
Northern Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Wind potential in Africa Estimation based on wind resources, accessibility and bankability
Sources: HIS Energy Research 2011; Energy Policy - The International Journal of the Political, Economic, Planning, Environmental and Social Aspects of Energy 2011; and Vestas estimates
North Africa
35 GW
Sub-Saharan Africa
26 GW
Africa
Medium term (By 2030)
Under construction & Projects with MoU
Long term
2 GW
10 GW
14 GW
2 GW
18 GW
14 GW
61 GW
4 GW
28 GW
28 GW
Existing by 2010 1.5 GW 1.5 GW
Total potential
14 March 2012 │ ESMAP/IFC Wind Energy Seminar
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Wind Projects Long Term Service Agreements. Operations and Maintenance of Wind Farms in Developing Countries Jean-Christophe Paupe – [email protected] Vice President, Service –MED, LAC, Africa
AOM® – Active Output Management® 1
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Cost of Energy embraces all aspects in wind power performance
Annualized CAPEX + Annualized OPEX
Annual Energy Production CoE =
CAPEX [EUR/year]
OPEX / MTBI
AEP [MWh] / Yield
Operation, Maintenance and administration cost
Foundations
Turbine supply agreement
Electrical infrastructure
Installation, construction and other items
Power curve and average wind speed
Availability, Wake, Electrical losses
CoE [EUR/MWh]
×
÷
+
+
25-35% of CoE
Safety Highest service quality at highest safety standard.
Control of Hazardous Energy Electrical Safety Safety Awareness Incident Management Contractor Management Ergonomics
Vestas Standards
Lost Production Factor (LPF) Improvement
Our fleet performance has improved by 50% over
the past 12 months We are now under 2%
VMED Lost Production Factor 2010-2011
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Vestas Service Organisation in Numbers*
* As per H2 2011
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MONITOR IDENTIFY
& INITIATE
PLAN & REPAIR
LEARN & IMPROVE
Vestas Mediterranean Control Centre
WIND FARM
Optic fiber
SURVEILLANCE CENTRE
InternetDial-in
Internet
Dial-in
TECHNICIAN
SITE SUPERVISOR
SERVICE SUPERVISOR
TECHNICAL DEPARTMENT
Alarm notification
Turbine Performance Management Services
Supported by the 50th biggest computer in the world, Performance deviations in the fleet are identified to INITIATE and OPTIMIZE OPERATIONS activities for MORE PRODUCTION at the RIGHT
TIME at the RIGHT COST
VESTAS Service Team Morocco
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Continuous Turbine Performance improvement
Vestas Turbine Monitor Alert
ERP Work order including FAQ and trouble shooting
guides
FAQ and support documents updates
Maintenance Visit Findings Resolution and spare parts used
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CERTIFIED TRAINING SAFETY VALUES FIELD EXPERIENCE
Training certified by:
Highest HSE standards, OHSAS 18001 certified
R&D optimised diagnostics and maintenance strategy
Support from technical help desk
LEAN problem solving techniques
Certified technicians (4 levels) with the right knowledge and skills
Industry leader in safety and training
VESTAS TECHNICIANS arrive well prepared, supported by a large team & knowledge base. You benefit from:
Mandatory “Safety Walks” by management
Technicians empowered to stop work if something appears unsafe or someone is at risk
“Safety First” is the primary value driver for Vestas service technicians
Advanced turbine technology and safe operations require competent personnel. The Right PEOPLE
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DATA ANALYSES
VTM – Vestas Turbine Monitoring CMS – Condition Monitoring System
Analysing more than 130 signals from heat sensors
Detecting potential failures and outliers
Assessing the "health" of a machine by analysing measured signals
Assessments integrated into work planning
Estimating the time of failure, using the weather conditions and the best PPA optimised planning of maintenance activities
In-house ISO Certified Vibration Engineers
Assessments integrated into work planning
Vestas builds predictive intelligence through research, monitoring and field experience to maximize the output using different systems.
The Right INTELLIGENCE
PREDICTIVE CONDITION BASED MAINTENANCE
VESTAS PERFORMANCE AND DIAGNOSTICS CENTRE (VDPC) monitors over 21 500 turbines amounting to almost 33 GW
MONITOR IDENTIFY
& INITIATE
PLAN & REPAIR
LEARN & IMPROVE
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Performance deviations in the fleet are identified to INITIATE OPERATIONS
activities at the RIGHT TIME
Planning of maintenance based on Vestas weather forecast
to MAXIMIZE PRODUCTION
MONITOR IDENTIFY
& INITIATE
PLAN & REPAIR
LEARN & IMPROVE
Maintenance strategy
Predictive Maintenance
Corrective Maintenance
Preventive Maintenance
Maintenance operations and planning are executed synchronously by prevention through prediction.
The Right OPERATIONS and MAINTENANCE PLAN
Vestas Turbine Watch provides 12+ years expertise in of 24/7/365 SURVEILLANCE
Findings used to provide RELIABLE PERFORMANCE & OUTPUT MANAGEMENT
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The Right INFRASTRUCTURE
TECHNOLOGY HOTLINE AND PRODUCT UPGRADES
Synchronized service support structure.
Global delivery, logistics and sourcing network
Certainty of quality, supply and control of cost
Repair capabilities for generators, gearbox and other components
GLOBAL SPARE PARTS AND REPAIR
24/7 surveillance center/hotline accessible through email or phone
High expert knowledge available at country or region level Open normal business hours, accessible through 1st level support
Access to unique OEM technical expert knowledge Failure analysis & proactive engineering upgrades to enhance performance
1st Level Support
2nd Level Support Technology R&D
ERP Work Order and Guides for fixing issues, list of necessary spare parts and list of other maintenance tasks
Efficient service operations and strategic maintenance planning
CUSTOMISED ERP AND PROPRIETARY FAQ
The Right LOGISTIC Vestas Spare Parts and Repair setup
Drop off Warehouse
Repair Facility
Parts and Repairs
Provider
Operations
In-house Repair Distribution
Vestas
central
parts setup
Local Sourcing
Central Sourcing Regional
Warehouse
Parts Depot
Parts Exchange New Parts
New Parts
New Parts
Parts exchange
Wind Turbines End Customer
Wind Turbines End Customer
Kan Ban of ready components
Kan Ban of ready components
Site Warehouse
Full scope contracts
TOC Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 15
Renewal Renewal
A full scope contract means no unforeseen and no unbudgeted maintenance costs
Contract duration of up to 15 years – warranty like coverage for the duration
Aligned incentives through upside sharing with industry leading performance guarantees matched to your site needs
Option of All Risk Insurance in selected markets. A unique option that can only be obtained through Vestas
Access to +30 years experience of operating and maintaining wind farms
Invoke a long term relationship with Vestas
Yr 2
Warranty Site mobilisation & handover
Commissioning
Full Scope Performance Based Contracts Vestas’ service contract guarantee levels fit with your life cycle needs.
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Wind speeds
Hou
rs
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100,0
200,0
300,0
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800,0
900,0
MW
h
Distribution of hours in a year at different wind speeds
Energy produced in a year at different wind speeds
21%
50%
Source: V112 3MW turbine; noise mode 0; air density 1,225; Wind distribution estimated with a A = 8 and k 2,2
Capturing the Wind Energy based availability incentivizes Vestas to ensure availability when the wind is there
In a typical wind farm 50% of Annual Energy Production is obtained in 21% of available time
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The Guarantees Side-by-Side AOM 4000
100% Time based availability
Measures the TIME the turbine is available to make power
• Main Focus : Wind Farm Availability
AOM 5000
100% Energy based availability
Measures the Production that is captured from the wind resources
available at the site
• Main Focus : LPF (Lost Production Factor)
Energy
Wind
Power Generation
Maximize Total O/P
Time
Maximize Time “Available”
Energy
Advantages: • Aligns Vestas to Customer’s business
• Optimizes the production output • Focus on running and non-running
losses, on ROI • Demonstrated bankability
Challenges:
• Wind windows available for planned maintenance scheduling
Advantages: • Demonstrated bankability
• Almost a Standard? offer in the industry
Challenges • Not aligned with customer revenue stream
• Creeping expectations on guarantee