Wind Power in Japan - JWPAjwpa.jp/pdf/JWPA_REvision2017_ExpertMTG.pdf · March 7, 2017 Japan Wind...
Transcript of Wind Power in Japan - JWPAjwpa.jp/pdf/JWPA_REvision2017_ExpertMTG.pdf · March 7, 2017 Japan Wind...
March 7, 2017
Japan Wind Power Association (JWPA)http://jwpa.jp/en
Wind Power in Japan-Present Status and Challenges-
REvision2017 Experts MeetingRenewable Energy Institute
Japan Wind Power Association (JWPA)
■ Brief HistoryDecember 17, 2001: started as a Voluntary Association
April 1, 2010 : incorporated as a General Incorporated Association
with the present legal status
■ Basic philosophy- to improve the energy security of Japan and contribute to solutions
for global environmental issues including warming
- to promote sound growth of the wind power industries at home and abroad
- to conduct ourselves with strong awareness of responsibility as an industry
group representing our country
- to be accountable and maintain compliance by ensuring the function and
ability to exert influence both internally and externally
■ Composition of Members (as of February 15,2017)
✔ Number of members:312 companies and groups covering whole wind industry
✔ Our members are owning and running approx.85% of wind power generating
facilities in operation in Japan.1
1
Present Status of Wind Power Development in Japan
① Wind power generating facilities in operation: 3,378MW(as of E/March/2017 :estimated by JWPA)
② Projects under development & EIA process:10,493MW(as of E/January/2017:surveyed by JWPA)
Project Area MW
Hokkaido 2,533MW
Tohoku 6,834MW
others 1,126MW
Total 10,493MW
Status of EIA MW
Primary consultation 3,213MW
Scoping documents 3,510MW
Draft EIA 3,770MW
Total 10,493MW
Geographical Distribution Progress of EIA Process
*Summed up figure(①+②): 13,871MWThe figure of 10,000MW indicated in “2030 Energy Mix” for wind power generation seems achievable in the early stage of 2020s.
2
Major Challenge ①:Constraints in Grid Connection
Current Issues① Cross-Regional Grid Operation yet to start
The nation wide cross-regional grid operation has been long waited.:-
- rules and regulations to be reformed comprehensively
- OCCTO’s Long Term Vision of Cross-Reginal Network Development
expected to be announced toward the end of March, 2017
② Grid Constraints getting harder in areas with good wind
Hokkaido:New WF shall have battery to avoid variations of output to the grid
Tohoku:Due to a plenty of new installation plans, the lack of thermal capacity
of trunk transmission lines are anticipated ⇒ Concern:Heavy investment
(cost allocation) and 10 years time for construction be required ?
Solutions:The government committee (Grid WG) worked out certain alternative
ideas to cope with the situations. The Wind industry is anxiously awaiting
constructive and feasible proposals by electric utilities/OCCTO based on
such discussions at Grid WG.
3
Major Challenge ①:Constraints in Grid Connection Remark:latest update (as of March 7, 2017)
New proposal by Hokkaido Electric (HEPCO)(announced and agreed in the Grid WG on March 7, 2017)
HPCO proposed a new invitation for additional capacity for grid connection.
① Additional Capacity:1,000MW (1st phase 600MW, 2nd phase 400MW)
② Batteries: - to be installed at the HEPCO’s grid side instead of
each WF(present requirement)
- expected required total capacity of batteries(15%-4h)
for 1st phase; approx.90MW–4h (installed toward FY2022)
for 2nd phase; approx.60MW–4h (to be decided)* battery capacity to be further studied and scrutinized
③ Cost allocation:to be shared by both generators and HEPCO
4
4
Sources: Federation of electric power companies of Japan, transmissions network, http:/www.fepc.or.jp/enterprise/supply/soudensen/sw_index_01/index.html of Japan is machined to base source: federation of electric power companies of Japan transmission network http: /www.fepc.or.jp/enterprise/supply/soudensen/sw_index_01/index.html of
Kamikita
Nishino
Akita
Nishiate separates
Large field
Hakodate
Shimokita
Iwate
Miyagi
West Sendai
South Soma
South Iwaki
New Iwaki
New koga
New Imaichi
New Motegi
East Gunma prefecture
West Gunma prefecture
New Nitta
New SakadoNew Tokorozawa
New Tama
New Chichibu
Shin-Fuji
New Shino F.C
Sakuma F.C.
Higashishimizu F.C.
Shino
Eastern part
Northern part
Gifu
In progress Noto
Kaga
Echizen
Toyone
Mie
East Omi
Reinan
New ikoma
Nanjing city
Keihoku
South fukumitsu
Kihoku
Nose
Nishikyo capital
AnanToyo
Sanuki
Sendai
Awa
West seeding
Mitsuoka mountainShin " okayama
Buzen
South HayakitaWest Futaba
Yamazaki
HinoWestern shimane
Kitakyushu
Western Kyushu Center
Kumamoto
Central Kyushu
Southern KyushuMiyazaki
East Kyushu
Sefuri
New Yamaguchi
Western shimane
New HiroshimaShin-Nishi-Hiroshima
Higashiyama mouth
Chizu
Hayao farToei
Major transformation Substation
Wakkanai
Key transformation Substation with desired establishment
Intersection direct conversion station
500,000V transmission line15.4-275,000V transmission lineDC power transmission lines
Core system with necessary arrangements and enhancement
OCCTO shall work fully to
activate existing inter
regional grid connecting line
To select "wind power
priority area“
such as Hokkaido
To improve grid infrastructure at the selected priority area
5
Improve the grid infrastructures according to the decommissioning of old facilities.
To select “wind power priority area” is also effective for growing up wind power industry at that local area.
Not only cross-regional grid connecting lines, but also local grid lines at good wind resource areas (Hokkaido & Tohoku) are important for wind power promotion in Japan.
(for Reference) Grid issues, in middle / long term:Cost-effective reinforcement of grid infrastructure
*Source :JWPA Wind Vision 2016
Major Challenge ② :EIA Procedure
Current Issues① Longer Process compared with major European countries and US
* investigated and prepared by JWPA
② JWPA’s Proposal
1)Reduction to half of EIA survey period and examination period
2)Formalizing advancement of EIA survey (demonstration projects are under
trial jointly by METI and MOE)
3)Revision of criteria for project magnitude (≧10MW to ≧50MW)
4)Rationalizing evaluation items for survey (such as items during construction)
US Germany Spain UK Japan
Criteria >50MW >50m height& ≧20WTG
>50WTG or <2kmfrom existing WF
>50MWOn shore
≧10MW
Period 1~2Y 2Y 1.5~2Y 1.5~2Y 3~4/5Y
6
≪Topics≫ Offshore Wind Power Development (1)
Overview of Kitakyuushuu Port Project Site
1st Project pursuing Amendmentof Port & Harbor Act just launched
Awarded to:Hibiki wind EnergyConsoprtiumheaded by Kyuden Miraiwith J-Power, Hokutaku,Saibugas, Kyudenko
No. of WTG:max.44WTGsGen. capacity:228.8MWConstruction:expected to start
in 2022
Source: discussion paper of Transport Policy Council of MLIT (Dec.7, 2015)
7
≪Topics≫Offshore Wind Power Development (2)88
*Total installed: 60MW*Total planned:1,926MW
Source:investigated by JWPA
Source:investigated by JWPA
≪for Reference≫ Latest Report by NREL(USA)89
Source:NREL web site at www.nrel.gov/publications
March 2, 2016
The Japan Wind Power Association (JWPA)
http://jwpa.jp/en
Aiming at Sustainable Expanding Deployment of
Wind power in Japan
— JWPA Wind Vision Report —
10
Scope of JWPA WindVision Report11
Challenges and SolutionsChallenges and Solutions
No. challenges Solutions
1 To achieve grid parity Medium / long term tactics for LCOE reduction
2 To harmonize with grid operation Realistic strategies for grid connection along time line
3 High reliability, Job creation To improve safety, human resources, financing, etc.
Wind Power Energy Resources and Mid/Long Term TargetVer. 4.3 (released by JWPA in June 2014)
‘Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook (2030 Energy Mix)’(released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in July 2015)
Recognizing the challenges
Practical tactics for the challengesSafe and stable power supply,
Minimize public burden
JWPA’s basic principlesJWPA’s basic principles
1. To mitigate global warming and secure Japaneses energy security by promoting wind power2. To organize and to grow up wind power industry for promoting wind power3. To act with responsibility as the representative for Japanese wind power industry group4. To establish enough abilities for lobbing, and to keep accountabilities
Contents12
1. World wind power development trend2. Roadmap for the Wind Power Introduction for Japan,
proposed by JWPA3. Scenario for future wind power in Japan(1) 5 driving forces : Reduce LCOE, Harmonize with electrical grid,
Repowering, Offshore wind, Establishing domestic supply chain
(2) Time & Area : Challenges for grid interconnection by time lines.
4. Future prospects for LCOE reduction in Japan5. Grid issues
In short term: To improve grid operation under cross-area managementIn middle & long term: Cost-effective reinforcement of grid infrastructure
6. To promote Repowering7. To promote Offshore wind power development8. Other challenges : Easing the hurdles
11.36 13.41 14.82 16.22 17.43 18.37
1.08
1.51 1.82
2.12 2.43
2.74
3.04
6.17
8.44
10.46 12.17
13.76
1.37
3.97
5.60
7.28
9.00
10.66
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
2013 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
その他 太陽光地熱 風力バイオマス 水力再エネ電源比率
SolarWindHydro
Etc.GeothermalBiomassRe‐Energy rate
1. World wind power development trend
• Wind power shall increase more than 1,000GW by 2040 by IEA forecast. • It is the largest among the all kinds of electric power plants.• 2.5 trillion dollars shall be invested for the wind power.• Most of nations with large GDP promote wind power.• COP21 at Paris in Dec.2015 will accelerate the world wind power in further.
Prospects for renewable energies in the world
Source: World Energy Outlook 2015, IEA among, "New Policy Scenario"REN21 Renewables 2015 Global Status Report
Investment estimates in electric world power(2015 to 2040 annual)
Tril
lion
dolla
rs(2
014
rate
s)
Transmission and distributionRenewable energiesNuclear powerFossil-fuel
Investment for wind is 2.5 trillion dollars, which is the largest
Wind Power rank : 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 19th
GDP Rank : 2nd 1st 4th 14th 9th 5th 11th 6th 8th 7th 3rd
(Japan)
+0.2
World winds power introduction amount tops 10 countries (2014)
(Italy)(Canada)(Britain)(United State)(China) (Germany) (India)(Spain) (Brazil)(France)
2014 amounts new implementationAggregate total
10,000 kW
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
+2,320
+490
+530
-0 +230
+170+190 +100 +10 +250
+20
The large GDP top nations promote wind power
(100 million kW)
year
13
2. Roadmap for the Wind Power Introduction for Japan,
proposed by the JWPA
• 10GW prospect at“Energy mix plan”shall be achieved at early 2020s. (3.1GW at 2015 + 7.1GW in the EIA process = 10GW)
• JWPA proposes 36.2GW toward 2030 for the next stage.
2015 year-end: 3,038,000kW
EIA Added: 10,100,000kW
14
3. Scenario for future wind power in Japan(1) 5 Driving forces
To reduce LCOE
To ImproveGrid infrastructure
To promoteRepowering
To promoteOffshore wind
To establish domesticsupply chain
• Achieve grid parity / competitiveness• Mass production achieves volume discount.• To improve capacity factor & availability
• Install at good wind condition area• Aggregation• Inter regional grid operation• Effective control, Output forecast
• To promote new large high performance wind turbines instead of old ones
• To harvest huge offshore wind energy resources
• To activate wind turbine & components industries in Japan
• Job creation by “Green new deal”
Wind power mass
introductionin Japan
• JWPA considers there are 5 driving forces for wind power in Japan• If we can handles them, wind power mass introduction shall be realized.
15
3. Scenario for future wind power in Japan(2) Challenges for onshore wind grid Interconnection by time & area
• For onshore wind, Grid connection has large priority.• Kyushu area has some margin. We have to accelerate this area at first • Hokkaido & Tohoku which have small acceptable capacities now,
we manage to send their electricity to demand/population center (Tokyo).
(Short terms: up to 5 years)- Inter regional grid operation- To use existing pomp up hydro plants
and middle load fossil fired power plants- Out put control for renewable energies- Re-estimation of acceptable capacity
(About long term: 5-15 yers)• Optimization of transmission network to
achieve “Energy mix plan”• To improve inter-reginal grid lines;
Hokkaido/Tohoku: 2.7GWTohoku/Tokyo 3.2GW
Reference: “Master plans workshops interim report on strengthen including inter-regional interconnecting line”(April, 2012, Ministry of economy, trade and industry)
16
150
600
42
20273
285
+4003
+270
+320
Unit: 10,000 kW
Internal acceptable capacity in the area
Additional acceptable capacityusing interregional connection Line
Margin(accelerating benefits)
Onshore wind: 26,6 GW
Maps attribution: J Power HP(http://www.jpower.co.jp/bs/souhenden/about.html)
59
64+48
+25
109
+10
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kyusyu
Tokyo
4. Future prospects for LCOE reduction in Japan
• We expect cost will decrease after 2020 to 8-9 JPY/kWh toward 2030by mass production and technology innovations.
• Cost reduces moderately until 2020. because construction cost won’t decrease due to big demand for coming Olympic game preparation.
17
Cost estimation by experience curve (cumulative output expansion effect*)
Cost estimation with regard to technology (individual technological innovation effects*)
Introduction of onshore wind power generation(period)
Capital costsOperating and maintenance costs
2.71 GW(March 2013)
300 thousand JPY/kW
6,000 JPY/kW/year
2.94 GW(March 2015)
316 thousand JPY/kW
11,000 JPY/kW/year
10 GW(2020)
263 – 271 thousand JPY/kW
4,800 – 5,220 JPY/kW/year
26.6 GW(2030)
239 – 253 thousand JPY/kW
4,098 – 4,590 JPY/kW/year
Item Generation cost improvement effect
50% increase in swept area -1.99 JPY/kWh
Life extension (20 years 25 years) -1.88 JPY/kWh
Improvement of utilization rate and capacity factor through adoption of CMS
-1.69 JPY/kWh
20% reduction of nacelle weight -1.28 JPY/kWh
Improvement of maintenance efficiency -0.51 JPY/kWh
5% increase in wind turbine efficiency -0.39 JPY/kWh
25% increase in tower height -0.25 JPY/kWh
* Cost calculation for cumulative output expansion effect and individual technological innovation effects is based on completely different approaches.Besides, individual technological innovation effects are estimated by summing maximum values of all elements, while actual attainability is different for each element.
Estimated reduction of wind power generation cost up to 2030JPY/kWh
Influence of rise in construction costs because of Olympics and reconstruction demand
Estimated wholesale electricity price(= achievement of grid parity)
Wind power generation cost
Coal-fired power generation cost
Estimated introduction of wind power generation (right axis)
10 MW
5. Grid issues, in short term :to improve grid operation
• Output curtailment for renewable energies (solar and wind) shall be requested by grid stabilities in Japan now.
• “Hour unit base” is better than “Day unit base”at curtailment.• If we consider solar and wind at harmonizing(sharing), wind power can
get additional acceptable capacity and can reduce the curtailment.
18
AreaWind power introduction
Output suppression rate(suppression days)
<Day unit base>
Output suppression rate(suppression hours)
<Hour unit base>
Hokkaido 1.5 GW25.4%
(74 days)8.5%
(739 hours)
Tohoku 6 GW18.6%
(41 days)4.0%
(370 hours)
Kyusyu 9 GW27.9%
(54 days) 8.2%
(648 hours)
So
lar
po
wer
Wind power
Installed capacity of solar power generation = 38.124 million kWInstalled capacity of wind power generation = 35.678 million kW
Both wind power and solar power outputs grow high together very seldom.This can be handled by output suppression.
Example of measured output of solar power generation and wind power
generation in Germany (2014)
Examples of estimation of wind power introduction and output suppression rate in every area (JWPA)
Wind power generation and solar power generation complement each other. Efficient sharing in a power system is possible, while mutual hindrance in introduction expansion is not likely.
Introduction of wind power generation at a level close to that of solar power generation is possible in areas suitable for wind power generation (Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kyushu) through utilizing the fullest extent of existing equipment.
* In this simulation, outputs of solar power generation and wind power generation are suppressed in such way that residual demand with respect to the actual demand in 2013 (residue of power demand less power generated by solar and wind power plants) does not drop below a set lower limit; as to wind power, the control method is intended for suppression of the output ceiling in a whole area operated by every power company, in units of hours (maximum output suppression control).
* In this simulation, static demand-and-supply balance is considered solely in terms of ‘maintenance of minimum residual demand’ aiming to eliminate the deficit of decrease capacity. Therefore, the following factors are disregarded, and actual wind power introduction and output suppression rate (output suppression time) may be different from the simulated results.Year-to-year variation of power demand conditions. Errors of demand forecast, solar power output forecast, and wind power output forecast (including, for example, a possibility that solar and wind power outputs exceed respective maximum values (2)). Time constraints on start/stop of thermal power generators, hydro power generators, and other conventional power sources (as regards installed capacity and operation methods of power generators, minimum residual demand, introduction and output suppression time of solar power plants, and other data for 2013, the calculations are based on the data shown by 3rd System WG).
Sources: Federation of electric power companies of Japan, transmissions network, http:/www.fepc.or.jp/enterprise/supply/soudensen/sw_index_01/index.html of Japan is machined to base source: federation of electric power companies of Japan transmission network http: /www.fepc.or.jp/enterprise/supply/soudensen/sw_index_01/index.html of
Kamikita
Nishino
Akita
Nishiate separates
Large field
Hakodate
Shimokita
Iwate
Miyagi
West Sendai
South Soma
South Iwaki
New Iwaki
New koga
New Imaichi
New Motegi
East Gunma prefecture
West Gunma prefecture
New Nitta
New SakadoNew Tokorozawa
New Tama
New Chichibu
Shin-Fuji
New Shino F.C
Sakuma F.C.
Higashishimizu F.C.
Shino
Eastern part
Northern part
Gifu
In progress Noto
Kaga
Echizen
Toyone
Mie
East Omi
Reinan
New ikoma
Nanjing city
Keihoku
South fukumitsu
Kihoku
Nose
Nishikyo capital
AnanToyo
Sanuki
Sendai
Awa
West seeding
Mitsuoka mountainShin " okayama
Buzen
South HayakitaWest Futaba
Yamazaki
HinoWestern shimane
Kitakyushu
Western Kyushu Center
Kumamoto
Central Kyushu
Southern KyushuMiyazaki
East Kyushu
Sefuri
New Yamaguchi
Western shimane
New HiroshimaShin-Nishi-Hiroshima
Higashiyama mouth
Chizu
Hayao farToei
Major transformation Substation
Wakkanai
Key transformation Substation with desired establishment
Intersection direct conversion station
500,000V transmission line15.4-275,000V transmission lineDC power transmission lines
Core system with necessary arrangements and enhancement
OCCTO shall work fully to
activate existing inter
regional grid connecting line
To select "wind power
priority area“
such as Hokkaido
To improve grid infrastructure at the selected priority area
19
Improve the grid infrastructures according to the decommission of old facilities.
To select “wind power priority area” is also effective for growing up wind power industry at that local area.
Not only inter regional grid connecting lines, but also local grid lines at good wind resource area (Hokkado & Tohoku) are important for wind power promotion in Japan.
5. Grid issues, in middle / long term : Cost-effective reinforcement of grid infrastructure
6. To promote Repowering
• Old wind turbines (operated for 20 years) shall increase after 2020. Most of them stand at good wind conditions.
• To Promote terminating old turbines and rebuilding new large high performance turbines.
20
1 1 2 4 8 14 31
46
68
93 108
149 167
188
219
248 256 264 270
292
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
[10 M
W]
Merits for repowering- To prevent accidents- To improve power output- To keep Japanese wind power installation- Job creation at local districts- To add demand for wind turbine industries
7. To promote Offshore wind power development 21
Wakkanai port(10 MW)
Ishikari Bay new port(100 MW)
Setana port(1.2 MW)
Mutsu Ogawara port(80 MW)
Akita port( 3 MW)(65 MW)
The Sakata port(10 MW) (15 MW)
Iwafune at Murakami city(220 MW)
Kashima port(250 MW)Kamisu (30 MW)
Choshi (2.4 MW) *
Shimonoseki cities Yasuoka(60 MW)
Kitakyushu city (2 MW)Kitakyushu port (500 MW)
Goto city Kabashima (2 MW) *
Fukushima floatingoffshore wind project(2 MW) *(12 MW)
Noshiro port(80 MW)
Experience: 52.6 MWPlanned: 1,392MW
- Offshore wind power development is a good way for mass introduction.- But, it needs efforts to remove the hurdles, such as; long EIA process,
Grid connection, Law modification for general common sea area, Jack up ships, Port qway bearing strength, etc.
Source: including the meeting small commission term energy supply-demand projection (4th time)
Schedule for expansion of offshore wind power introduction
Source: compiled by JWPA
FY2015 – 2030
Maintenance of transmission lines
Formulation of rules for sea area utilization
Area zoning for wind turbine facilities
Reconciliation among interested parties in environmental assessment
Public recruitment of business operators
Construction works in Area 1
Construction works in Area 2
Construction works in Area 3
Arrangement of base ports
Arrangement of SEP ships and other special purpose ships
Framework
Construction works
2 million kW
Area 1
6.2 million kW
Area 2
8.5 million kW
Area 3
10 Million kW
Area 4
Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Area 4
Recruitment for Area 1 Recruitment for Area 2 Recruitment for Area 3
Area 1
Area 2
Area 3
Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Area 4
8. Other challenges : Easing the hurdles22
Easing regulations against wind power introduction in Japan. (Expanding wind farm sites candidates all over Japan)
R&D for innovative wind turbines matching Japanese climate
and terrains, etc. (Aiming at cost effective facilities)
Improving project management skill, from development through
to O&M (Improvement of project quality)
Establishing supply chain of wind industry and promoting domestic wind related industries.(Bringing-up dmestic industries)
Promoting cost-effective and diversified financing sources to sustainable investment (Stimulating robust investment)
Contribution for preventing global warming, securing higher social acceptance , contributions for local economies. (Getting national consensus and citizen support)
Thank you !
2.4 MW offshore wind turbine of NEDO’s project at Choshi in Ibaragi pref. Source: JWPA photo contest in 2013