Wind Micro Generation Rui Bernardo

8/3/2019 Wind Micro Generation Rui Bernardo

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1 February 2012Rui Bernardo

Wind MicrogenerationWind Microgeneration


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1 February 2012 2Rui Bernardo

Overview

1. Structuring the study

2. Wind behavior

3. Modeling the wind

4. Electricity production estimation

5. Economic evaluation

6. Results

7. Conclusions


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1. Structuring the study

Wind data(ms-1 vs. hours)

Generator data(kW vs. ms-1)

Tariff( vs. kWh)

Electricity(kWh)

NPV()

Investment()

Maintenance()


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2. Wind behavior

Wind varies in speed (modulus and direction)

In timeIn time

Lisbon, November

Modulus

Direction


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2. Wind behavior

In spaceIn space

Modulus Direction

Wind varies in speed (modulus and direction)


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Anemometer

GPRS Network

The best way


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0,00000

0,02000

0,04000

0,06000

0,08000

0,10000

0,12000

f(u)

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Wind speed [m/s]

Distribution of wind speed over a year


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Without accurate data

2

422

!avgu

u

avg

euuuf

T

T

Wind speed(m/s)

Annual averagewind speed (m/s)

Rayleigh Distribution

ProbabilityDistribution for

wind speed


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ResendeDistrict of Viseu


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2

4

22

! avguu

avg

euuuf

T

Tuavg=5 ms-1

Distribution probability of wind speed

0,00000

0,05000

0,10000

0,15000

0,20000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

wind speed (u) [m/s]

f(u)


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Distribution probability of wind speed

0,00000

0,05000

0,10000

0,15000

0,20000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

wind speed (u) [m/s]

f(u)


0,1

P [kW] f[P(u)]

0,1 0.15


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Considered modelsBornay 1500 W Chinese model 2 kWBornay 3000 W


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!

vv!26

0

8760

ueyear uPufE


u [ms-1] f(u)

0 0,00000

1 0,06089

2 0,11082

3 0,14207

4 0,15203

5 0,14324

6 0,12166

7 0,09435

8 0,06731

9 0,04439

10 0,02715

11 0,01544

12 0,00818

13 0,00404

14 0,00186

15 0,00080

16 0,00032

17 0,00012

18 0,00004

19 0,00001

20 0,00000

Pe [W]

0,00

0,00

0,00

120,00

180,00

240,00

360,00

600,00

720,00

840,00

960,00

1080,00

1200,00

1260,00

1320,00

1080,00

1020,00

1080,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Pe [W]

0,00

0,00

0,00

240,00

360,00

480,00

720,00

1200,00

1440,00

1680,00

1920,00

2160,00

2400,00

2520,00

2640,00

2160,00

2040,00

2160,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Bornay1500

Pe [W]

0,00

0,00

0,00

80,00

100,00

160,00

200,00

300,00

400,00

540,00

800,00

1000,00

1600,00

1800,00

2400,00

2000,00

1600,00

1400,00

1000,00

800,00

600,00

Bornay3000

Chinesemodel

Bornay1500

Bornay3000

ChineseModel

Eyear[kWh]

2.859,092 5.718,184 1.904,041


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Remuneration applied to MG units is stated in the law *

First 10 MW set is remunerated at 70% of 650 /MWh (T1-5}455 /MWh) on the first

5 years of operation

Annual limit starts at 10 MW in the 1st year and increases 20% every following

year

Every additional set of licensed 10 MW implies a reduction of 5% in the tariff

After 5 years the remuneration is updated every year until it reaches the normaltariff or until 15 years of operation

Installation takes place in 2008

Annual power limit is always reached

Equipment has a total life time of, at least, 20 years

Assumptions for this study

*Decreto-Lei 363/2007, 1 srie n 211, 2 Novembro 2007


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Remuneration ov

er the life time

T1-5 T6-15 T16-

Year ofinstallation

(2008)

ri=455 /MWh

2013 2023

si=Decreasingtariff

ni=110 /MWh

n [year] Remuneration [/MWh]

6,0 317,743

7,0 286,763

8,0 245,864

9,0 200,258

10,0 154,956

11,0 113,907

12,0 110,000

13,0 110,000

14,0 110,000

15,0 110,000


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Turbinecontroller

InverterExportmeter

Importmeter

Basic equipment

Solar panel(2 m2) *

* Obliged by the law for microgeneration


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Investment

Bornay 1500[]

Bornay 3000[]

Chinesemodel 2 kW

Turbine 4.856 6.954 572Inverter 1.230 1.230 220

Tower 2.275 2.275 353

Solar thermal * 2.108 2.108 2.108

TOTAL 10.199,00 12.587,00 3.253,60

Not including meters and licensing

Maintenance costs (OM): around 2% of installation costs

Maintenance

* Conergy TS


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5. Economic Evaluation

Net Present Value (NPV):

t

j

jj

j

jj

j

jjI

a

OMN

a

OMS

a

OMRNPV

v

v

v! !!!

20

16

15

6

5

1 1

1)(

1

1)(

1

1)(

EyearxT1-5 Discount rate=8% EyearxT6-15 EyearxT16-

InvestmentOperation and

Maintenance (2%)


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6. Results

NPV for 5 years

-12.000,00

-10.000,00

-8.000,00

-6.000,00

-4.000,00

-2.000,00

0,00

0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00

n [years]

NPV []

Bornay 1500

Bornay 3000

Chinese


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6. Results

NPV for 20 years

-12.000,00

-10.000,00

-8.000,00

-6.000,00

-4.000,00

-2.000,00

0,00

2.000,00

4.000,00

0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00

n [years]

NPV []Bornay 1500

Bornay 3000

Chinese


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7. Conclusions

Economic viability of a wind microgeneration unit depends onan accurate knowledge of resource, of turbines and of theirrelation

The most suitable turbine for a certain place can be theworst for a different location!

From the considered models

Bornay 1500 is the worst option, since never gives a positiveNPV for the whole considered life time period

Chinese model gives positive NPV earlier, but Bornay 3000offers more guarantees

NPV can be greater since normal tariff is not being affectedby inflation rate


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7. Conclusions

1921-1924

William Arthur Ward

the pessimistcomplains aboutthe wind;

the optimist expectsit to change;

the realist adjuststhe sails.

Wind Micro Generation Rui Bernardo

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