Wills World Renewable Energy Congress 8 feb17
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Transcript of Wills World Renewable Energy Congress 8 feb17
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Climate Change Policies, Emissions Trajectories & Renewable Energy Solutions
@ProfRayWills
Prof Ray Wills
Managing DirectorFuture Smart Strategies
Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia
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Roger’s diffusion curve
@ProfRayWills
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The Big Bang Theory
@ProfRayWills
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A Brief Moment in Time
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Predicting anything is difficult
@ProfRayWills
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Predicting anything is difficult
@ProfRayWills
And don’t forget the old tech exit
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Understand difference between linear growth and exponential growth …n = % growth rate, 70/n years; So n = 1% doubling time is 70/1 = 70 years n = 2% doubling time is 70/2 = 35 years n = 5% doubling time is 70/5 = 14 years n = 7% doubling time is 70/7 = 10 years n = 10% doubling time is 70/10 = 7 years n = 20% doubling time is 70/20 = 3.5 years n = 30% doubling time is 70/35 = 2 years
@ProfRayWills
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Declining PV price
Bloomberg NEF
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Understand difference between linear growth and exponential growth …n = % growth rate, 70/n years; So n = 1% doubling time is 70/1 = 70 years n = 2% doubling time is 70/2 = 35 years n = 5% doubling time is 70/5 = 14 years n = 7% doubling time is 70/7 = 10 years n = 10% doubling time is 70/10 = 7 years n = 20% doubling time is 70/20 = 3.5 years n = 35% doubling time is 70/35 = 2 years
Solar increased 36% pa - 8 fold in 7 years, 2009 to 2016
@ProfRayWills
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Solar rising – by fallingunderstanding exponential growth
@ProfRayWills
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Solar rising – by fallingunderstanding exponential growth
@ProfRayWills
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Global renewables growth …
@ProfRayWills
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Global renewables growth and forecast
@ProfRayWills
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Build it more cheaply
@ProfRayWills
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Build it more quickly
@ProfRayWills
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Global electricity generation capacity
@ProfRayWills
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Global electricity generation capacity
@ProfRayWills
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Electricity gen - where it’s needed
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Electricity generation – IEA Total
n = 10% doubling time is 70/10 = 7 years
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Electricity generation - Europe
epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
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Electricity generation - #Brexit
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Electricity generation - Australia
Aus Carbon Price
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Forecasts not based on experience
This is
poor scie
nce
And poorly in
forms
Policy o
utcomes
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Forecasts not based on experience
This is
poor scie
nce
And poorly in
forms
Policy o
utcomes
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Forecasts not based on observed data
This is
poor scie
nce
And poorly in
forms
Policy o
utcomes
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China electricity generation additions
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Forecasts based on science and data
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Forecasts based on science and data
Nature Geoscience
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US energy sources changing
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US energy sources changing
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Change in Energy
@ProfRayWills
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Solar gen 1 (gen 2, gen 3, … ) 1st gen solar cell made from silicon
2nd gen solar cell thin-films 1st gen solar panels ‘fixed-on’
2nd gen emerging – building material: < cost labour, material 3rd gen solar cell – may be nanotubes, silicon wires, organic
dyes, and conductive plastics – lead to solar inks for printing, solar paint on any surface, personal wearables.
@ProfRayWills
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Global renewables
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Global renewables growth and forecast
@ProfRayWills
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Global renewables growth and forecast
@ProfRayWills
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Batteries – home storage + EVs
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Change in Energy
@ProfRayWills
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Solar as just another consumer product
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We still need governments to act …
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Cities also drive change
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We need governments to act – but… Corporate social responsibility also drives change –
because empowered customers will accelerate change
Google, Amazon, Microsoft, IBM and Facebook formed an alliance to address the ethical issues.
@ProfRayWills
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Individuals can act …
@ProfRayWills
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New technology iterating faster - continuous increase in energy efficiency, rapid, exponential (non-linear) growth of renewables.
Investment and build of renewable generation capacity has eclipsed investment on fossil fuel generation
Changes in generation mix with intrusion of renewables impacts long held metrics of capital cost effectiveness of capacity factor for fossil fuel electricity generation.
Planners in traditional energy technology seem unprepared for change, not based on observations in past perturbations in energy markets.
Emissions reductions mechanisms still being pursued.
Global renewables growth and forecast
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Forecasts of energy markets varied in timeline – but all predict coming dominance of renewable energy.
Rapid emergence + convergence of complementary technologies: energy storage, electrification of transport, and self-driving vehicles – and integrated in the emergence of ‘smart cities’ – all delivering additionality to momentum for change.
Sophistication of developing energy control systems changing paradigm of what is possible in 21stC
Multiple agents of change: not just government, but also business, consumer, and community drivers add much political pressure especially through social media channels.
Global renewables growth and forecast
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World’s largest … taxi company owns no taxis (Uber) hotel chain owns no property (AirBnB) telcos own no wires (Skype, WeChat) retailers own no stock (Ebay, Alibaba) financial houses that hold no currency (PayPal) media service creates no content (Facebook) movie house owns no cinemas (Netflix) software vendors don’t write apps (Apple, Google)Will largest energy companies generate no energy?What other businesses will go virtual? (Can everything?)
Battlefield is slickest customer interface + experience
@ProfRayWills
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WA’s largest … Sun Brilliance 100MW+ DC 165ha farm Cunderdin
WA wheatbelt, east of Perth Development to break new
ground on a number of fronts in the Australian – and global - solar market
Not shutting capacity – taking it
@ProfRayWills
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@ProfRayWills