Will Lent, Research & Policy Analyst, Solar Energy...
Transcript of Will Lent, Research & Policy Analyst, Solar Energy...
Will Lent, Research & Policy Analyst, Solar Energy Industries Association Andrew Krulewitz, Solar Analyst; Editor, PVNews, GTM Research Cory Honeyman Solar Analyst, GTM Research
June 27, 2013
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About SEIA • Founded in 1974
• U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy • 1,000 member companies from around the world • Members from across 50 states • Largest companies in the world as well as small
installers • Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power
America
• Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar capacity in the U.S. by 2015
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Solar in America: Strong and Getting Stronger • 119,000 American workers in solar – more than double the
number in 2009 – at 5,600 companies across the country
• One of the fastest growing sectors of the U.S. economy – 2012 installations grew 76% over 2011
• Q1 2013 was the largest first quarter on record. PV market installed 723 MW, growing 33% over last year
• Over 8,500 MW of cumulative installed solar electric capacity, enough to power 1.3 million average American homes
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Solar Market Insight: Q1 2013 • Detailed data on markets in
top 28 states plus DC available in full report.
• Free executive summary provides national aggregate data on installations, pricing, manufacturing and demand forecasts.
• Full report for sale (50% discount to SEIA members) includes quarterly forecasts as well as detailed market segment and state data.
June 25, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 6
SEIA/GTM Research Partnership • Industry need for up-to-date and reliable market data
– Market reports issued every quarter
• Member discount: benefit for SEIA members – Reliable market intelligence
– Member discount makes SMI the most affordable market research available
• Data to support SEIA’s advocacy mission • SEIA-GTM conferences • Email questions to [email protected] or
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Solar Continues to Boom- 723 MW Installed in Q1 2013
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System Prices Continue to Fall
• Average system prices fell by 24% in the past year
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LBNL "Tracking the Sun IV" SEIA/GTM Research
Price Declines Driving Growth
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Average Commercial System Price by State- Q1 2013
Q1 2013 State Performance
• 8 states installed 10 MW or more
• CA had the strongest 1st quarter in history
• NJ’s commercial market rebounded to lead the nation in Q1 2013
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10. Florida
9. Pennsylvania
8. Colorado
7. Tennessee
6. Massachusetts
5. North Carolina
4. Arizona
3. Hawaii
2. New Jersey
1. California
Residential Commercial Utility
What to Expect For the Rest of 2013
• More than 4,400 MW of PV will come online in 2013
• Residential market to show the most significant growth
• 2013 will be a record year for CSP as 938 MW is expected to be commissioned
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U.S. PV Market Forecast- 30% Growth in 2013
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Installations Forecast
Market Segment Trends, Q1 2012 – Q1 2013 • The residential market
continued its steady and incremental growth, up 11% quarter-over-quarter
• Commercial installations
dipped 20% compared to last quarter; NJ was the only major market to see growth
• The utility market dropped quarter-over-quarter, primarily supported by 276.8 MW installed in CA
Residential Market: California Spike Sustains Growth
• Quarter-over-quarter growth for national residential installations masks weak installation figures from several major markets (i.e. MA, NY, AZ)
• California accounted for 48% of the residential market share, equal to 77.9 MW
California: Moving Past the California Solar Initiative
Increasing number of residential installers are forgoing the CSI rebate for two reasons: 1. Residential rebates are depleted
in PG&E and SDG&E territories 2. “Retail Rate Parity” with only
30% Investment Tax Credit and net metering
Third-Party Financing Continues to Drive Installs • Prevalence of third-party
owned (TPO) systems continues to drive new residential installations in major state markets
• CO hit a U.S. record
TPO market share of 91%
• Despite diminishing rebates in states like CA, HI, and MA, residential solar is increasingly competitive with retail electricity rates
Non-Residential Market: Sluggish Start to 2013
• Most state markets shrank quarter-over-quarter, including CA (46%), AZ (77%), HI (14%), and MA (43%)
• NJ was the only major state market to see quarterly growth at 65 MW installed, a 50% spike
• The non-residential market was hit hard by diminishing state incentives, but a turnaround is expected by mid 2013
U.S. Utility Market – Top 10 Q1 Projects Completed
Project Name Developer Capacity (MWdc) State Power Offtaker EPC Firm
Antelope Valley Solar Ranch One – Phase II First Solar 79 CA Pacific Gas &
Electric First Solar
Alpine Solar Project NRG Energy 76 CA Pacific Gas & Electric First Solar
Catalina Solar – Phase I EDF Renewable Energy 67 CA San Diego Gas &
Electric Bechtel
Borrego Springs Solar I NRG Energy 30 CA San Diego Gas & Electric
Sunora Energy Solutions
SPS Atwell Island Samsung America, ENCO 23 CA Pacific Gas &
Electric Quanta Services
APS AZ Sun – Foothills Solar Plant – Phase 1
Arizona Public Service 15 AZ Arizona Public
Service AMEC
Fuquay Farm Strata Solar, Canadian Solar 6 NC Progress Energy
Carolinas Strata Solar
Kalaeloa Solar One Keahole Solar Power 6 HI Hawaiian Electric
Company -
Belwood Solar Farm Strata Solar 5 NC Duke Energy Carolinas Strata Solar
Southern Vermont Energy Park Solar
SVEP Solar Project Company 3 VT - RGS Energy
U.S. Utility Market Pipeline
• 318 MW of utility scale solar were installed in Q1 2013
• 24 projects became operational, ranging from 1 MW to 79 MW
• Four of the top five installations were early phases of larger projects to be completed over the next two years
Emerging Demand: New State Solar Incentive Programs
State Administrator Program Type Program
Size Compliance
Period Qualifying Facilities Bids/Incentiv
e/Funding Levels
California Utility: LADWP
Feed-in Tariff 150 MW 2013 10-14 MW Bid Cap: $0.14/kWh
Utility-Scale RFP 200 MW 2013 50 MW Bid Cap: $0.85/kWh
Colorado Utility: Xcel Energy
Annual Compliance Plan 33.6 MW 2013
Residential – Customer Owned (<10 kW)
Incentive: $0.11/kWh
Residential – Third Party Owned (<10 kW)
Incentive: $0.07/kWh
Massachusetts Government Solar Carve-Out (State RPS) 1,600 MW 2014-2020
Residential (<6 MW) SREC Market Non-Residential (<6 MW) SREC Market
Minnesota Government Solar Carve-Out (State RPS) 450 MW 2014-2020
120% of DG customer's on-site annual electric energy consumption
Funding: $5 million/year (next 5 years)
120% of DG customer's on-site annual electric energy consumption (in-state manufactured system)
Funding: $15 million/year (next 10 years)
Thank You & Contact Info
Justin Baca, Director of Research Will Lent, Research and Policy Analyst
Contact: [email protected]
Andrew Krulewitz, Solar Analyst Cory Honeyman, Solar Analyst Contact: [email protected]
For more information about purchasing the full SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight Q1 2013™ report, please visit www.gtmresearch.com/ussmi or email Justin Freedman ([email protected])